Directed acyclic graphs: a tool for causal studies in paediatrics

Causal associations between scapular morphology and shoulder condition estimated with Bayesian statistics

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

While there is a reported correlation between shoulder condition and scapular morphology, the precise impact of typical anatomical variables remains a subject of ongoing debate. This study aimed to evaluate this causal association, by emphasizing the importance of scientific modeling before statistical analysis.

METHODS

We examined the effect of scapular anatomy on shoulder condition, and conditioning on sex, age, height, and weight. We considered the two most common pathologies: primary osteoarthritis (OA) and cuff tear arthropathy (CTA). We combined the other pathologies into a single category (OTH) and included a control category (CTRL) of adult subjects without pathology. We represented acromion and glenoid morphology by acromion angle (AA), acromion posterior angle (APA), acromion tilt angle (ATA), glenoid inclination angle (GIA), and glenoid version angle (GVA). GVA was negative for posterior orientation. These variables were automatically calculated from CT scans of 396 subjects in the 4 shoulder condition groups by a deep learning model. We applied do-calculus to assess the identifiability of the causal associations and used a multinomial logistic regression Bayesian model to estimate them. To isolate the effect of each anatomical variable on each shoulder condition, we increased it from -2 to 2 z-score while constraining all other variables to their average value, and reported the effect on shoulder condition probability as percentage points (pp) for females and males.

RESULTS

Increasing AA reduced the probability of OA by 44 pp for females and 17 pp for males while increasing the probability of CTA by 36 pp for females and 33 pp for males. Increasing APA raised the probability of OA by 15 pp for females and 4 pp for males and increased the probability of CTA by 12 pp for females and 4 pp for males. Increasing ATA increased the probability of OA by 15 pp for females but decreased it by 25 pp for males, while also raising the probability of CTA by 11 pp for females and 21 pp for males. Increasing GIA decreased the probability of OA by 55 pp for females and 23 pp for males while increasing the probability of CTA by 45 pp for females and 31 pp for males. GVA (more anterior), decreased the probability of OA by 33 pp for females and 63 pp for males. The effects of APA and ATA were less important compared to the other variables. Overall, morphological effects were more pronounced for females than for males, except for GVA's impact on OA.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a Bayesian causal model to answer interventional questions about the scapular anatomy's effect on shoulder condition. Our results, consistent with clinical knowledge, hold promise for aiding in early pathology detection and optimizing surgical planning within clinical settings.

Selection Biases in Perinatal Research: A Comparison of Inverse Probability Weighting, Instrumental Variable and Sibling-Comparison Design

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal perinatal studies that study the effects of preconception or prenatal treatments on pregnancy outcomes can have inherent forms of selection bias. For example, these studies often restrict analyses to those who had a livebirth, those with a specified gestation duration or those with complete follow-up. These selection factors are often associated with the treatment and have shared causes with the outcome, which may induce bias in estimating causal effects. Though such selection bias can affect all causal inference approaches, what is unknown is how this bias compares in direction and magnitude across different approaches.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a simulation study to assess and compare the direction and magnitude of bias due to censoring across three common analytic approaches: inverse probability weighting (IPW), instrumental variable (IV) and sibling-comparison design.

METHODS

We simulated data for various scenarios under two censoring mechanisms (loss to follow-up; and competing events) with a null true causal treatment effect. The simulated scenarios varied in the probability of the censoring mechanism or its strength of association with treatment or outcome. For each scenario, we generated 500 datasets (sample size = 10,000) and calculated the mean bias in risk difference estimates obtained from the three analytic approaches.

RESULTS

Across all approaches, the proportion of censoring had no specific effect on mean bias. However, increasing the association of censoring with treatment or outcome increased the mean bias. The mean bias in all approaches was generally away from the null in the same direction and often to a similar extent (e.g., 0.5 percentage points away from the null in simulated scenarios with moderate association between treatment and censoring). However, in simulated scenarios with strong association between treatment and censoring, IV analyses were meaningfully more biased than IPW and sibling-comparison design analyses, with mean bias reaching two percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

Across the simulated scenarios, the mean bias in all three approaches was generally away from the null in the same direction and often to a similar extent. Thus, triangulating effect estimates from different analytic approaches in perinatal studies is challenging and may lead to invalid interpretations in the presence of selection processes.

Congenital Heart Defects and Apgar Score at Birth, a Nationwide Study

BACKGROUND

Low Apgar scores have been associated with an increased risk of brain injury and neurodevelopmental disorders in newborns with congenital heart defects (CHDs). However, the relation between CHD subtypes and low Apgar scores remains unknown. This study aimed to assess the association between major subtypes of CHD and low (<7) Apgar scores at 5 minutes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This population-based study included 1 040 474 liveborn singletons in Denmark from 1997 to 2013. The association between CHD and low Apgar scores was estimated by confounder-adjusted, multivariable logistic regression. In mediation analyses, the underlying mechanisms were examined. Low Apgar scores were present in 3.0% of newborns with CHD and in 0.7% of newborns without CHD. Overall, CHD was associated with an increased risk of a low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio, 2.5 [95% CI, 2.1-3.0]). CHD subtypes associated with the highest risks were anomalous pulmonary venous return (adjusted odds ratio, 5.7 [95% CI, 2.2-14.9]), hypoplastic left heart syndrome (adjusted odds ratio, 5.1 [95% CI, 2.2-11.8]), and transposition of the great arteries (adjusted odds ratio, 3.5 [95% CI, 1.7-7.4]). In mediation analyses, preterm birth explained 25.2% (95% CI, 11.8-38.6) of the association between CHD and low Apgar scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly all CHD subtypes were associated with an increased risk of a low Apgar score. The association was most pronounced in severe and potentially cyanotic types of CHD. These findings suggest that CHD is associated with a complicated fetal-to-neonatal transition and highlight the potential for improvements of this process in infants with CHD.

Usefulness of urinary β2-microglobulin for diagnosing acute focal bacterial nephritis

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the usefulness of urinary β2-microglobulin (U-β2MG) for diagnosing acute focal bacterial nephritis (AFBN) among upper urinary tract infections (UTIs). This retrospective study was performed at a single institution and included patients younger than 16 years of age diagnosed with upper UTIs. Patients were divided into the AFBN group and acute pyelonephritis (APN) group. Levels of U-β2MG corrected using urinary creatinine (U-β2MG/Ucre) were compared between groups. A multiple regression analysis was performed using Log(U-β2MG/Ucre) as a dependent factor and the diagnosis (AFBN or APN), age, sex, hydronephrosis grade, urinary pH, and fever interval before admission as independent factors. To discriminate AFBN and APN, thresholds of U-β2MG/Ucre and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were measured using the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Nineteen patients and 37 patients with AFBN and APN, respectively, were analyzed. The U-β2MG/Ucre level differed significantly between the AFBN and APN groups (10762 μg/gCr vs. 1525 μg/gCr, respectively; P = 0.007). The multiple regression analysis indicated that the Log(U-β2MG/Ucre) value of the AFBN group was considerably higher than that of the APN group (P = 0.004). The threshold values of U-β2MG/Ucre and CRP levels were 2070 μg/gCr and 5.7 mg/dL, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were 0.95 and 0.68, respectively, when both thresholds were used.Conclusions: The U-β2MG/Ucre level of patients with AFBN was significantly higher than that of patients with APN. Therefore, U-β2MG/Ucre could be used to discriminate between AFBN and APN. What is Known: • U-β2MG can aid in discriminating between upper and lower UTIs; however, using both U-β2MG and procalcitonin allows for more accurate differentiation What is New: • U-β2MG may be useful for discriminating between AFBN and APN in upper UTIs. Assessing both U-β2MG and CRP levels may improve the diagnosis of AFBN without invasive imaging tests.

Maternal Hypertension and Adverse Neurodevelopment in a Cohort of Preterm Infants

Importance

Whether maternal hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) confer independent neurodevelopmental deficit risks in premature infants is controversial. Previous studies are limited by inadequate confounding variable control and other biases.

Objective

To evaluate the associations between maternal HDP, especially preeclampsia, and neurodevelopmental outcomes of preterm infants at 2 years' corrected age.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Regional prospective cohort study of 395 preterm infants (≤32 weeks' gestation) from 5 level III and IV southeast Ohio neonatal intensive care units from September 2016 to November 2019. Data analysis was conducted in August 2022.

Exposure

HDP, defined by maternal diagnosis of chronic or gestational hypertension or preeclampsia during pregnancy.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Structural brain magnetic resonance imaging was performed at term-equivalent age. Neurodevelopment was assessed by Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (BSID), Third Edition, between 22 and 26 months' corrected age. Multivariable regression was used to identify the independent association of HDP and preeclampsia on cognitive (primary outcome), language, and motor development, controlling for several confounders. Mediation analyses were performed to understand if the association with HDP was mediated by its association with birth weight or brain abnormalities.

Results

In a cohort of 395 infants, the median (IQR) gestational age was 29.6 (27.6-31.4) weeks, birth weight was 1230 (950-1628) g, and 210 (53.2%) were male. Of these, 170 (43%) were HDP-exposed, of which 104 of 170 (61%) were exposed to preeclampsia. A total of 341 children (87%) completed the BSID. In adjusted analyses, HDP exposure was negatively associated with BSID cognitive scores (-3.69; 95% CI, -6.69 to -0.68; P = .02) and language scores (-4.07; 95% CI, -8.03 to -0.11; P = .04). Preeclampsia exposure showed similarly negative but greater associations for BSID scores (-4.85; 95% CI, -8.63 to -1.07; P = .01 for cognitive and -6.30; 95% CI, -11.49 to -1.09; P = .02 for language scores). Mediation analysis revealed that the association between HDP and cognitive scores was partially mediated by its adverse association with brain abnormalities at term-equivalent age (24% of the total effect; -0.82; 95% CI, -1.72 to -0.13; P = .02).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this preterm cohort study, maternal HDP was independently associated with adverse cognitive and language development, with accentuated associations observed in preeclampsia-exposed preterm infants, emphasizing the clinical importance of recognizing HDP as a risk, enabling targeted risk management strategies for closer monitoring and aggressive early intervention in affected populations.

Dyspnea and dystussia in Parkinson's disease: patient-reported prevalence and determinants

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of respiratory dysfunction in PD is unknown and a better understanding of determinants contributing to respiratory dysfunction is important to facilitate early recognition and treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the prevalence and determinants of self-reported symptoms of respiratory dysfunction among people with PD.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, we administered a self-completed questionnaire among a sample of 939 persons with PD. Respiratory dysfunction was defined as experiencing at least one of the following symptoms: breathing difficulties, breathlessness/shortness of breath, tightening of the chest, frequent throat clearing, frequent coughing, or coughing difficulties. A principal component analysis (PCA) was used to define composite constructs of respiratory dysfunction. The association with participant-reported determinants was assessed using multivariable logistic regression models (with adjustment for pulmonary diseases and COVID-19 symptoms).

RESULTS

The overall prevalence rate of respiratory dysfunction was 44% in persons with PD (42% after excluding pulmonary diseases or COVID-19). The PCA resulted in two constructs of respiratory dysfunction: 'dyspnea' and 'dystussia' (an impaired cough response), which together explained 68% of the total variance. Female sex (OR = 1.39), higher BMI kg/m2 (OR = 1.04), longer disease duration (OR = 1.35), greater self-reported rigidity (OR = 1.16), previous pulmonary disease(s) (OR = 7.12), and anxiety (OR = 1.04) were independently associated with 'dyspnea'. Pulmonary disease(s) (OR = 1.81), COVID-19 symptoms (OR = 2.20), swallowing complaints (OR = 1.48), and speech complaints (OR = 1.02) were independently associated with 'dystussia'.

CONCLUSIONS

Dyspnea and dystussia are common manifestations of respiratory dysfunction among people with PD and deserves more awareness in clinical practice. A proactive screening for the determinants of dyspnea and dystussia may contribute to earlier recognition and treatment of respiratory dysfunction.

A western dietary pattern during pregnancy is associated with neurodevelopmental disorders in childhood and adolescence

Despite the high prevalence of neurodevelopmental disorders, the influence of maternal diet during pregnancy on child neurodevelopment remains understudied. Here we show that a western dietary pattern during pregnancy is associated with child neurodevelopmental disorders. We analyse self-reported maternal dietary patterns at 24 weeks of pregnancy and clinically evaluated neurodevelopmental disorders at 10 years of age in the COPSAC2010 cohort (n = 508). We find significant associations with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism diagnoses. We validate the ADHD findings in three large, independent mother-child cohorts (n = 59,725, n = 656 and n = 348) through self-reported dietary modelling, maternal blood metabolomics and foetal blood metabolomics. Metabolome analyses identify 15 mediating metabolites in pregnancy that improve ADHD prediction. Longitudinal blood metabolome analyses, incorporating five time points per cohort in two independent cohorts, reveal that associations between western dietary pattern metabolite scores and neurodevelopmental outcomes are consistently significant in early-mid-pregnancy. These findings highlight the potential for targeted prenatal dietary interventions to prevent neurodevelopmental disorders and emphasise the importance of early intervention.

Early-onset neonatal infection and school performance: a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to study the association between early-onset neonatal infection in near-term and term children and school performance based on mandatory tests in reading and mathematics.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide register-based cohort study including all Danish near-term and term singletons born from 1997 to 2009. Early-onset infection was defined as an invasive bacterial infection during the first week of life. Infections were categorized into diagnosed sepsis or meningitis, and culture-positive sepsis or meningitis verified by bacteria cultured from blood or cerebrospinal fluid. Multivariable mixed model linear regression was used to estimate mean differences in test scores, expressed as standard deviation scores (SDSs) with 95% CI.

RESULTS

Among 638 402 children, 2 362 046 test scores were available from 9 to 15 years of age. A total of 5347 children were diagnosed with sepsis and 73 with meningitis, while 135 also had culture-positive sepsis and 20 had culture-positive meningitis. Diagnosed sepsis was associated with lower test scores with mean differences in reading of -0.08 SDS (95% CI: -0.10 to -0.05) and mathematics of -0.08 SDS (95% CI: -0.10 to -0.05). Diagnosed meningitis was associated with even lower test scores with mean differences in reading of -0.22 SDS (95% CI: -0.43 to 0.00) and mathematics of -0.31 SDS (95% CI: -0.55 to -0.07). These findings remained consistent even in sibling-matched analyses. Similar results were also found when only culture-positive infections were compared with the reference population. Sepsis caused by Escherichia coli showed the largest reduction in test scores, whereas group B Streptococcus appeared not to affect point estimates.

DISCUSSION

Early-onset sepsis was associated with modest reductions in test scores. This may be insignificant for the individual but could be important on a public health level. Early-onset meningitis was associated with more substantial reductions, emphasizing the severity of this condition even in children able to attend public school.

School performance in offspring born to mothers with hyperemesis gravidarum

BACKGROUND

Hyperemesis gravidarum is characterized by severe nausea, vomiting, and potentially undernutrition during pregnancy. Despite affecting up to 3% of all pregnancies, little is known about the impact of hyperemesis gravidarum on the cognitive development of the child.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare the school performance of offspring exposed to hyperemesis gravidarum during pregnancy with their nonexposed counterparts and siblings.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a population-based cohort study including all liveborn children, born in Denmark between January 1, 1986, and December 31, 2005. We included 1,162,249 offspring, of which 12,720 (1.1%) had been exposed in utero to a maternal diagnosis of hyperemesis gravidarum. The 2 coprimary outcomes were mean grade point average in the final year of elementary school (ninth grade, 15-16 years) and a composite outcome of low school performance, defined as a mean grade point average below 4 or no registered mean grade point average. The difference in mean grade point average was evaluated using uni- and multivariable linear mixed models and differences in proportions of the binary outcomes were compared using uni- and multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of the exposed offspring, 29.3% had low school performance compared to 25.7% of the nonexposed group. After adjustment for confounders (birth year, maternal age, multiple pregnancies, parity, maternal education, maternal smoking, and sex), we found that exposed offspring had increased odds of low school performance (odds ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.14-1.24). Furthermore, the exposed group had a lower mean grade point average of 6.55 compared with 6.78 in the nonexposed group, yielding an adjusted mean difference of -0.18 (-0.22 to -0.14). However, within-sibling analyses, comparing exposed offspring with their unexposed siblings (same mother), revealed no increased odds of low school performance (adjusted odds ratio 0.98 [0.92-1.04]) or difference in mean grade point average (-0.02 [-0.08 to 0.05]).

CONCLUSION

We found a small association between in utero exposure to hyperemesis gravidarum and low school performance. However, no difference in school performance was observed between exposed and unexposed siblings, indicating that the association could be attributed to genetics or other familial factors rather than hyperemesis gravidarum.

Hepatic lipogenesis marked by GCKR-modulated triglycerides increases serum FGF21 in children/teens with obesity

AIMS

Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) decreases hepatic lipogenesis in animal models, and FGF21 analogues decrease serum triglycerides (TG) in adults in phase-2 trials. On the other hand, serum FGF21 is associated with higher TG in observational studies of people with obesity, raising a sort of paradox. We tested the hypothesis that FGF21 is induced by TG in youth with obesity, as a compensatory mechanism.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We recruited 159 children/adolescents with obesity (80 males, 12.7 ± 2.1 years). Besides serum FGF21 and lipid dosages, we genotyped the Pro446Leu variant at glucokinase regulator (GCKR) as a known marker of genetically increased hepatic de novo lipogenesis, and we used it as an instrumental variable to establish a cause-and-effect relationship between FGF21 and TG, according to a Mendelian randomization analysis.

RESULTS

The Pro446Leu variant increased circulating TG (β = +0.35, p < 0.001), which was positively associated with circulating FGF21 (β = +0.42, p < 0.001). The Pro446Leu variant increased FGF-21 (β = +0.14, p = 0.031) with the expected slope (β-coefficient) in case of association entirely mediated by TG: 0.35 (slope between Pro446Ala and TG) × 0.42 (slope between TG and FGF21) = 0.14.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatic lipogenesis, marked by GCKR-modulated triglycerides, is significantly associated with increased serum FGF-21 in children/adolescents with obesity.

Increasing prevalence of cerebral palsy in children born very preterm in Denmark

AIM

To analyse the rising prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP) in children born preterm in Denmark.

METHOD

We included all live-born children born preterm in Denmark from 1997 to 2013. The prevalence of CP in children born preterm was categorized by gestational age and correlated with neonatal mortality and changes in clinical factors.

RESULTS

Among 70 876 children, 824 (1.2%) had CP. The overall CP prevalence in children born preterm decreased substantially until 2001, from when it increased annually by 2.8% (95% confidence interval 0.6-5.0). When categorized, the prevalence only increased significantly in children born very preterm (gestational weeks 28-31). Neonatal mortality rates decreased steadily at all gestational ages during the entire study period. Clinical factors that changed during the study period were increasing numbers of high-risk pregnancies, maternal obesity, emergency caesarean sections, neonatal admissions, and usage of assisted ventilation.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing prevalence of CP in children born preterm was driven by the subgroup born very preterm and matched their decrease in neonatal mortality. In similar population studies, decreased mortality was not followed by increased CP prevalence. An increase in clinical risk factors was unlikely to explain our findings, but more active neonatal life support may have played a role.

Patient-Reported Fatigue Associated with Joint Histopathology in Rheumatoid Arthritis

OBJECTIVE

Fatigue is important for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) but is poorly understood. We sought to study associations of fatigue with clinical features, disease activity, and synovial histology.

METHODS

Patients meeting the American College of Rheumatology/EULAR 1987 and/or 2010 RA criteria were recruited before elective total joint replacement. Demographics, RA characteristics, tender and swollen joints, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein, and patient-reported fatigue, categorized as mild, moderate, or severe, were collected. Hematoxylin and eosin stains of sectioned synovium were systematically scored by a pathologist. Relationships between fatigue and studied variables were evaluated with Kendall's tau. A directed acyclic graph (DAG) was used to illustrate associations of exposures, outcome variables, mediators, and confounders. Multivariable ordered logistic regression was used to further study associations.

RESULTS

Of 160 included patients, 85.6% were women, with a median age of 63.5 (55.25-71.40) and mean disease activity scores in 28 joints using ESR (DAS28-ESR) of 3.91 (SD 1.3). There were no differences in comorbidities across fatigue categories. Fatigue correlated with DAS28-ESR, synovial lining hyperplasia (SLH), anxiety, depression, and pain. In the DAG, DAS28-ESR was associated with fatigue, full mediation by pain, partial mediation by depression and anxiety, and confounding by female sex. SLH was independently associated with fatigue but did not confound the relationship between DAS28-ESR and fatigue. SLH was affected by synovial lymphocytic inflammation. In multivariable models, female sex, DAS28-ESR, and SLH were all associated with higher fatigue.

CONCLUSION

Although fatigue is associated with DAS28-ESR, it is also associated with SLH independently of disease activity.

Postnatal betamethasone treatment in extremely preterm infants and risk of neurodevelopmental impairment: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate if postnatal treatment with betamethasone in extremely preterm infants was associated with neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) at 6.5 years of age.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Extremely Preterm Infants in Sweden Study (gestational age <27 weeks, born 2004-2007).

PATIENTS

428 children born extremely preterm were assessed at 6.5 years of age, 115 treated with betamethasone and 313 not treated.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

NDI at 6.5 years of age. Evaluation at 6.5 years included cognitive testing with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV), neurological examination and a medical record review.

EXPOSURE

Treatment with postnatal betamethasone.

MAIN OUTCOME

Moderate to severe NDI at 6.5 years of age, defined as a composite including cerebral palsy, and/or impairment in cognition, hearing and vision.

RESULTS

Moderate to severe NDI was more prevalent in children treated with postnatal betamethasone (49% treated vs 26% not treated, p<0.001). Betamethasone-treated children had worse cognitive development with mean WISC-IV score of 75 (SD 13.7) vs 87 (SD 14.0, p<0.001). The effect was dose dependent: 1.35 mg/kg vs 1.0 mg/kg (p=0.01) in betamethasone-treated children with moderate to severe versus no or mild NDI, respectively. The differences remained after adjustment for potential confounders with logistic regression (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.80, 95% CI 1.14 to 3.21). The difference in NDI also remained after propensity score matching, with crude OR 2.82 (95% CI 1.42 to 5.61, p=0.003) and aOR 2.17 (95% CI 1.07 to 4.69, p=0.04).

CONCLUSION

Postnatal treatment with betamethasone is associated with increased risk of NDI at 6.5 years.

Five-year follow-up of the iBerry Study: screening in early adolescence to identify those at risk of psychopathology in emerging adulthood

The iBerry Study, a Dutch population-based high-risk cohort (n = 1022) examines the transition from subclinical symptoms to psychiatric disorders in adolescents. Here, we present the first follow-up measurement, approximately 3 years after baseline assessment and 5 years after the screening based on self-reported emotional and behavioral problems (SDQ-Y). We give an update on the data collection, details on the (non)response, and the results on psychopathology outcomes. The first follow-up (2019-2022) had a response rate of 79% (n = 807). Our results at baseline (mean age 15.0 years) have shown the effectiveness of using the SDQ-Y to select a cohort oversampled for the risk of psychopathology. At first follow-up (mean age 18.1 years), the previously administered SDQ-Y remains predictive for selecting adolescents at risk. At follow-up, 47% of the high-risk adolescents showed significant mental health problems based on self- and parent reports and 46% of the high-risk adolescents met the criteria for multiple DSM-5 diagnoses. Compared to low-risk adolescents, high-risk adolescents had a sevenfold higher odds of significant emotional and behavioral problems at follow-up. Comprehensive assessment on psychopathology, substance abuse, psychotic symptoms, suicidality, nonsuicidal self-injury, addiction to social media and/or video gaming, and delinquency, as well as social development, and the utilization of healthcare and social services were conducted. This wave, as well as the ones to follow, track these adolescents into their young adulthood to identify risk factors, elucidate causal mechanisms, and discern pathways leading to both common and severe mental disorders. Results from the iBerry Study will provide leads for preventive interventions.

Effects of interval treadmill training on spatiotemporal parameters in children with cerebral palsy: A machine learning approach

Quantifying individualized rehabilitation responses and optimizing therapy for each person is challenging. For interventions like treadmill training, there are multiple parameters, such as speed or incline, that can be adjusted throughout sessions. This study evaluates if causal modeling and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) can be used to accurately track the direct effects of treadmill training on gait. We developed a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to specify the assumed relationship between training input parameters and spatiotemporal outcomes during Short Burst Locomotor Treadmill Training (SBLTT), a therapy designed specifically for children with cerebral palsy (CP). We evaluated outcomes after 24 sessions of SBLTT for simulated datasets of 150 virtual participants and experimental data from four children with CP, ages 4-13 years old. Individual BART models were created from treadmill data of each step. Simulated datasets demonstrated that BART could accurately identify specified responses to training, including strong correlations for step length progression (R2 = 0.73) and plateaus (R2 = 0.87). Model fit was stronger for participants with less step-to-step variability but did not impact model accuracy. For experimental data, participants' step lengths increased by 26 ± 13% after 24 sessions. Using BART to control for speed or incline, we found that step length increased for three participants (direct effect: 13.5 ± 4.5%), while one participant decreased step length (-11.6%). SBLTT had minimal effects on step length asymmetry and step width. Tools such as BART can leverage step-by-step data collected during training for researchers and clinicians to monitor progression, optimize rehabilitation protocols, and inform the causal mechanisms driving individual responses.

Brain care bundles applied over each and successive generations

Worldwide polycrises continue to challenge the World Health Organization's proposed 2030 sustainable development goals. Continuity of brain care bundles helps attain these goals by sustaining brain health over successive generations. Factors representing social drivers of health must incorporate transdisciplinary care into equitable intervention choices. Drivers are more effectively addressed by combining maternal and pediatric assessments to address morbidity and mortality across each lifespan. Care bundles comprise at least three evidenced-based interventions collectively implemented during a clinical experience to achieve a desired outcome. Synergy among stakeholders prioritize communication, responsibility, compliance and trust when choosing bundles in response to changing clinical conditions. A prenatal transdisciplinary model continues after birth with infant and family-centered developmental care practices through discharge to supplement essential skin-to-skin contact. Fetal-neonatal neurology training encourages participation in this model of brain health care to more effectively choose neurodiagnostic and neuroprotective options. Shared clinical decisions evaluate interventions from conception through the first 1000 days. At least eighty percent of brain connectivity will have been completed during this first critical/sensitive period of neuroplasticity. The developmental origins of health and disease concept offers neurology subspecialists a life-course perspective when choosing brain health strategies. Toxic stressor interplay from reproductive and pregnancy diseases and adversities potentially impairs embryonic, fetal and neonatal brain development. Continued exposures throughout maturation and aging worsen outcome risks, particularly during adolescence and reproductive senescence. Intragenerational and transgenerational use of care bundles will guide neuromonitoring and neuroprotection choices that strengthen preventive neurology strategies.

Building a better model: abandon kitchen sink regression

This paper critically examines 'kitchen sink regression', a practice characterised by the manual or automated selection of variables for a multivariable regression model based on p values or model-based information criteria. We highlight the pitfalls of this method, using examples from perinatal/neonatal medicine, and propose more robust alternatives. The concept of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is introduced as a tool for describing and analysing causal relationships. We highlight five key issues with 'kitchen sink regression': (1) the disregard for the directionality of variable relationships, (2) the lack of a meaningful causal interpretation of effect estimates from these models, (3) the inflated alpha error rate due to multiple testing, (4) the risk of overfitting and model instability and (5) the disregard for content expertise in model building. We advocate for the use of DAGs to guide variable selection for models that aim to examine associations between a putative risk factor and an outcome and emphasise the need for a more thoughtful and informed use of regression models in medical research.

The association of dietary total antioxidant capacity and gestational diabetes: a prospective cohort study from the Mothers and their children's health (MATCH)

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

There is evidence to support the hypothesis that a diet rich in antioxidants can help safeguard against the development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). This study aimed to investigate the association between dietary total antioxidant capacity (DTAC) during early pregnancy and the risk of GDM.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

We included 1856 pregnant women in their first trimester from the Mothers and their Children's Health (MATCH) prospective cohort study. Prepregnancy dietary intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and was used to calculate the DTAC score. Incident GDM was diagnosed based on the American Diabetes Association criteria. We estimated the association between DTAC and GDM using propensity score-based inverse probability weighting (IPW).

RESULTS

Overall, 369 (14.6%) of the pregnant women were identified with GDM. The mean DTAC score and the corresponding standard deviation (SD) was 2.82± (2.56) mmol/100 g, with a range of 0.01 to 18.55. The adjusted risk of GDM decreased by 34% (95% CI = 10%, 52%, p = 0.023) for each DTAC score increase. The results showed that women in the highest quartile of DTAC had a lower risk of developing GDM compared to those in the lowest quartile (adjusted RR: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.68, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

DTAC in early pregnancy is significantly associated with a lower risk of GDM. Additional larger cohort studies are needed to validate these findings.

Does the evidence support in utero influences on later health and disease? A systematic review of highly cited Barker studies on developmental origins

The developmental origins of health and disease hypothesis proposes that early exposure to adverse conditions during fetal development and early life have strong detrimental consequences on long-term health and susceptibility to chronic diseases. We conducted a systematic review to critically appraise Barker's highest cited publications using the risk-of-bias assessment tool (ROBINS-I) and investigate effects of overadjustment by later body weight. Our findings revealed that all included studies displayed high risks of bias, with particular concerns regarding confounding (8/8), selection of reported results (8/8), classification of exposure (7/8), selection of participants (5/8) and high rates of missing data (ranged from 15 to 87%). Later body weight was over-adjusted in most (6/8) of the studies. As all studies displayed high bias risk due to confounding, missing data and overadjustment, evidence is insufficient to support causal relationships between low birthweight and adult disease, warranting caution in clinical application. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42023433179.

Short-term outcomes of asphyxiated neonates depending on requirement for transfer in the first 24 h of life

IMPORTANCE

In neonates with birth asphyxia (BA) and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, therapeutic hypothermia (TH), initiated within six hours, is the only safe and established neuroprotective measure to prevent secondary brain injury. Infants born outside of TH centers have delayed access to cooling.

OBJECTIVE

To compare in-hospital mortality, occurrence of seizures, and functional status at discharge in newborns with BA depending on postnatal transfer for treatment to another hospital within 24 h of admission (transferred (TN) versus non-transferred neonates (NTN)).

DESIGN

Nationwide retrospective cohort study from a comprehensive hospital dataset using codes of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th modification (ICD-10). Clinical and outcome information was retrieved from diagnostic and procedural codes. Hierarchical multilevel logistic regression modeling was performed to quantify the effect of being postnatally transferred on target outcomes.

SETTING

All discharges from German hospitals from 2016 to 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

Full term neonates with birth asphyxia (ICD-10 code: P21) admitted to a pediatric department on their first day of life.

EXPOSURES

Postnatal transfer to a pediatric department within 24 h of admission to an external hospital.

MAIN OUTCOMES

In-hospital death; secondary outcomes: seizures and pediatric complex chronic conditions category (PCCC) ≥ 2.

RESULTS

Of 11,703,800 pediatric cases, 25,914 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. TNs had higher proportions of organ dysfunction, TH, organ replacement therapies, and neurological sequelae in spite of slightly lower proportions of maternal risk factors. In TNs, the adjusted odds ratios (OR) for death, seizures, and PCCC ≥ 2 were 4.08 ((95% confidence interval 3.41-4.89), 2.99 (2.65-3.38), and 1.76 (1.52-2.05), respectively. A subgroup analysis among infants receiving TH (n = 3,283) found less pronounced adjusted ORs for death (1.67 (1.29-2.17)) and seizures (1.26 (1.07-1.48)) and inverse effects for PCCC ≥ 2 (0.81 (0.64-1.02)) in TNs.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

This comprehensive nationwide study found increased odds for adverse outcomes in neonates with BA who were transferred to another facility within 24 h of hospital admission. Closely linking obstetrical units to a pediatric department and balancing geographical coverage of different levels of care facilities might help to minimize risks for postnatal emergency transfer and optimize perinatal care.

Surgical Site Infections After Pediatric Liver Transplantation-Impact of a Change in Perioperative Prophylactic Antibiotic Protocol

BACKGROUND

In spite of improved survival rates after pediatric liver transplantation, infections remain major contributors to perioperative morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to understand the impact of type and duration of perioperative antibiotic prophylaxis (PAP) on the occurrence of surgical site infections (SSIs).

METHODS

In total, 125 patients who underwent liver transplantation between 2014 and 2020 were retrospectively included. Patients were categorized into two periods based on changes in the standard PAP regimen. Risk factors for SSIs were investigated, including the influence of PAP duration, antibiotic substances used, and abdominal patch placement using multivariable regression models.

RESULTS

SSIs occurred in 23 (19%) of 119 analyzed patients and were not impacted by changes in the PAP regimen. The placement of an abdominal patch was a relevant risk factor for SSIs (odds ratio 3.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-12.68). Longer PAP duration reduced the occurrence of SSIs by up to 4.6 percentage points (95% CI 0.0-9.1) per day, with its effect diminishing with longer duration. The choice of antibiotic substances for PAP changed after implementation of the new protocol, with a decline in vancomycin usage from 14% to 3%.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study emphasize the need for evidence-based PAP regimens tailored to the unique needs of pediatric liver transplant recipients. The occurrence of SSIs remains complex and is influenced by various factors beyond the PAP regimen. Multicentric efforts to develop effective prevention strategies against SSIs in this vulnerable population are warranted.

Considering pregnancies as repeated vs independent events: an empirical comparison of common approaches across selected perinatal outcomes

BACKGROUND

In population-based research, pregnancy may be a repeated event. Despite published guidance on how to address repeated pregnancies to the same individual, a variety of approaches are observed in perinatal epidemiological studies. While some of these approaches are supported by the chosen research question, others are consequences of constraints inherent to a given dataset (eg, missing parity information). These decisions determine how appropriately a given research question can be answered and overall generalizability.

OBJECTIVE

To compare common cohort selection and analytic approaches used for perinatal epidemiological research by assessing the prevalence of two perinatal outcomes and their association with a clinical and a social independent variable.

STUDY DESIGN

Using vital records linked to maternal hospital discharge records for singleton births, we created four cohorts: (1) all-births (2) randomly selected one birth per individual (3) first-observed birth per individual (4) primiparous-births (parity 1). Sampling of births was not conditional on cluster (ie, we did not sample all births by a given mother, but rather sampled individual births). Study outcomes were severe maternal morbidity (SMM) and preeclampsia/eclampsia, and the independent variables were self-reported race/ethnicity (as a social factor) and systemic lupus erythematosus. Comparing the four cohorts, we assessed the distribution of maternal characteristics, the prevalence of outcomes, overall and stratified by parity, and risk ratios (RR) for the associations of outcomes with independent variables. Among all-births, we then compared RR from three analytic strategies: with standard inference that assumes independently sampled births to the same mother in the model, with cluster-robust inference, and adjusting for parity.

RESULTS

We observed minor differences in the population characteristics between the all-birth (N=2736,693), random-selection, and first-observed birth cohorts (both N=2284,660), with more substantial differences between these cohorts and the primiparous-births cohort (N=1054,684). Outcome prevalence was consistently lowest among all-births and highest among primiparous-births (eg, SMM 18.9 per 1000 births among primiparous-births vs 16.6 per 1000 births among all-births). When stratified by parity, outcome prevalence was always the lowest in births of parity 2 and highest among births of parity 1 for both outcomes. RR differed for study outcomes across all four cohorts, with the most pronounced differences between the primiparous-birth cohort and other cohorts. Among all-births, robust inference minimally impacted the confidence bounds of estimates, compared to the standard inference, that is, crude estimates (eg, lupus-SMM association: 4.01, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 3.54-4.55 vs 4.01, 95% CI 3.53-4.56 for crude estimate), while adjusting for parity slightly shifted estimates, toward the null for SMM and away from the null for preeclampsia/eclampsia.

CONCLUSION

Researchers should consider the alignment between the methods they use, their sampling strategy, and their research question. This could include refining the research question to better match inference possible for available data, considering alternative data sources, and appropriately noting data limitations and resulting bias, as well as the generalizability of findings. If parity is an established effect modifier, stratified results should be presented.

The role of directed cycles in a directed neural network

This paper investigates the dynamics of a directed acyclic neural network by edge adding control. We find that the local stability and Hopf bifurcation of the controlled network only depend on the size and intersection of directed cycles, instead of the number and position of the added edges. More specifically, if there is no cycle in the controlled network, the local dynamics of the network will remain unchanged and Hopf bifurcation will not occur even if the number of added edges is sufficient. However, if there exist cycles, then the network may undergo Hopf bifurcation. Our results show that the cycle structure is a necessary condition for the generation of Hopf bifurcation, and the bifurcation threshold is determined by the number, size, and intersection of cycles. Numerical experiments are provided to support the validity of the theory.

Association of bilaterally suppressed EEG amplitudes and outcomes in critically ill children

Background and objectives

Amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG) is used to assess electrocortical activity in pediatric intensive care if (continuous) full channel EEG is unavailable but evidence regarding the meaning of suppressed aEEG amplitudes in children remains limited. This retrospective cohort study investigated the association of suppressed aEEG amplitudes in critically ill children with death or decline of neurological functioning at hospital discharge.

Methods

Two hundred and thirty-five EEGs derived from individual patients <18 years in the pediatric intensive care unit at the University Hospital Essen (Germany) between 04/2014 and 07/2021, were converted into aEEGs and amplitudes analyzed with respect to age-specific percentiles. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) for death, and functional decline at hospital discharge in patients with bilateral suppression of the upper or lower amplitude below the 10th percentile were calculated. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) were assessed.

Results

The median time from neurological insult to EEG recording was 2 days. PICU admission occurred due to neurological reasons in 43% and patients had high overall disease severity. Thirty-three (14%) patients died and 68 (29%) had a functional decline. Amplitude suppression was observed in 48% (upper amplitude) and 57% (lower amplitude), with unilateral suppression less frequent than bilateral suppression. Multivariable regression analyses yielded crude ORs between 4.61 and 14.29 and adjusted ORs between 2.55 and 8.87 for death and functional decline if upper or lower amplitudes were bilaterally suppressed. NPVs for bilaterally non-suppressed amplitudes were above 95% for death and above 83% for pediatric cerebral performance category Scale (PCPC) decline, whereas PPVs ranged between 22 and 32% for death and 49-52% for PCPC decline.

Discussion

This study found a high prevalence of suppressed aEEG amplitudes in critically ill children. Bilaterally normal amplitudes predicted good outcomes, whereas bilateral suppression was associated with increased odds for death and functional decline. aEEG assessment may serve as an element for risk stratification of PICU patients if conventional EEG is unavailable with excellent negative predictive abilities but requires additional information to identify patients at risk for poor outcomes.

Expected and Desirable Preterm and Small Infant Growth Patterns

Adequate nutrition is necessary for achieving optimal growth and neurodevelopment. Growth is a natural and expected process that happens concomitantly with rapid advancements in neurodevelopment. Serial weight, length, and head circumference growth measures are essential for monitoring development, although identifying pathological deviations from normal growth can pose challenges. Appropriate growth assessments require considerations that a range of sizes for length, head circumference, and weight are expected and appropriate. Because of genetic differences and morbidities, there is a considerable overlap between the growth of healthy infants and those with growth alterations. Parents tend to be over-concerned about children who plot low on growth charts and often need reassurance. Thus, the use of terms such as "poor" growth or growth "failure" are discouraged when growth is approximately parallel to growth chart curves even if their size is smaller than specific percentiles. No specific percentile should be set as a growth goal; individual variability should be expected. An infant's size at birth is important information that goes beyond the common use of prognostic predictions of appropriate compared with small or large for gestational age. The lower the birthweight, the lower the nutrient stores and the more important the need for nutrition support. Compared to term infants, preterm infants at term-equivalent age have a higher percentage of body fat, but this diminishes over the next months. Current research findings support expert recommendations that preterm infants should grow, after early postnatal weight loss, similar to the fetus and then term-born infants, which translates to growth approximately parallel to growth chart curves. There is no need for a trade-off between optimum cognition and optimum future health. Each high-risk infant needs individualized nutrition and growth assessments. This review aims to examine infant growth expectations and messaging for parents of preterm and term-born infants within the broader causal framework.

Athletic Injury Research: Frameworks, Models and the Need for Causal Knowledge

Within applied sports science and medicine research, many challenges hinder the establishment and detailed understanding of athletic injury causality as well as the development and implementation of appropriate athletic injury prevention strategies. Applied research efforts are faced with a lack of variable control, while the capacity to compensate for this lack of control through the application of randomised controlled trials is often confronted by a number of obstacles relating to ethical or practical constraints. Such difficulties have led to a large reliance upon observational research to guide applied practice in this area. However, the reliance upon observational research, in conjunction with the general absence of supporting causal inference tools and structures, has hindered both the acquisition of causal knowledge in relation to athletic injury and the development of appropriate injury prevention strategies. Indeed, much of athletic injury research functions on a (causal) model-blind observational approach primarily driven by the existence and availability of various technologies and data, with little regard for how these technologies and their associated metrics can conceptually relate to athletic injury causality and mechanisms. In this article, a potential solution to these issues is proposed and a new model for investigating athletic injury aetiology and mechanisms, and for developing and evaluating injury prevention strategies, is presented. This solution is centred on the construction and utilisation of various causal diagrams, such as frameworks, models and causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), to help guide athletic injury research and prevention efforts. This approach will alleviate many of the challenges facing athletic injury research by facilitating the investigation of specific causal links, mechanisms and assumptions with appropriate scientific methods, aiding the translation of lab-based research into the applied sporting world, and guiding causal inferences from applied research efforts by establishing appropriate supporting causal structures. Further, this approach will also help guide the development and adoption of both relevant metrics (and technologies) and injury prevention strategies, as well as encourage the construction of appropriate theoretical and conceptual foundations prior to the commencement of applied injury research studies. This will help minimise the risk of resource wastage, data fishing, p-hacking and hypothesising after the results are known (HARK-ing) in athletic injury research.

Children's health affected by parent's behavioral characteristics: a review

Exposure of an individual to occupational and environmental risk factors for a certain disease affects them and their family. Children are highly vulnerable in this setting because they are family-dependent. This review discusses diseases that occur in children according to the occupational and behavioral characteristics of their parents. Toxic agents in the home environment can affect children's health. Maternal exposure to substances during pregnancy may directly affect fetal outcomes. The Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance Act in Korea was amended in 2023 to compensate for children's adverse health effects due to their parents' occupational risks. The long working hours and smoking behaviors of parents and toxic materials in the home environment are highlighted. To control for the diverse factors affecting children's health in medical research, this review introduces directed acyclic graphs. Pediatric, occupational, and environmental medicine must collaborate to prevent childhood diseases related to environmental factors.

Effect of fluoridated water on invasive NHS dental treatments for adults: the LOTUS retrospective cohort study and economic evaluation

Background

Most water fluoridation studies were conducted on children before the widespread introduction of fluoride toothpastes. There is a lack of evidence that can be applied to contemporary populations, particularly adolescents and adults.

Objective

To pragmatically assess the clinical and cost effectiveness of water fluoridation for preventing dental treatment and improving oral health in a contemporary population of adults, using a natural experiment design.

Design

Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected National Health Service dental claims (FP17) data.

Setting

National Health Service primary dental care: general dental practices, prisons, community dental services, domiciliary settings, urgent/out-of-hours and specialised referral-only services.

Participants

Dental patients aged 12 years and over living in England (n = 6,370,280).

Intervention and comparison

Individuals exposed to drinking water with a fluoride concentration ≥ 0.7 mg F/l between 2010 and 2020 were matched to non-exposed individuals on key characteristics using propensity scores.

Outcome measures

Primary: number of National Health Service invasive dental treatments (restorations/'fillings' and extractions) received per person between 2010 and 2020. Secondary: decayed, missing and filled teeth, missing teeth, inequalities, cost effectiveness and return on investment.

Data sources

National Health Service Business Services Authority dental claims data. Water quality monitoring data.

Primary outcome

Predicted mean number of invasive dental treatments was 3% lower in the optimally fluoridated group than in the sub/non-optimally fluoridated group (incidence rate ratio 0.969, 95% CI 0.967 to 0.971), a difference of -0.173 invasive dental treatments (95% CI -0.185 to -0.161). This magnitude of effect is smaller than what most stakeholders we engaged with (n = 50/54) considered meaningful.

Secondary outcomes

Mean decayed, missing and filled teeth were 2% lower in the optimally fluoridated group, with a difference of -0.212 decayed, missing and filled teeth (95% CI -0.229 to -0.194). There was no statistically significant difference in the mean number of missing teeth per person (0.006, 95% CI -0.008 to 0.021). There was no compelling evidence that water fluoridation reduced social inequalities in treatments received or missing teeth; however, decayed, missing and filled teeth data did not demonstrate a typical inequalities gradient. Optimal water fluoridation in England in 2010-20 was estimated to cost £10.30 per person (excluding original setup costs). Mean National Health Service treatment costs for fluoridated patients 2010-20 were 5.5% lower per person, by £22.26 (95% CI -£23.09 to -£21.43), and patients paid £7.64 less in National Health Service dental charges per person (2020 prices).

Limitations

Pragmatic, observational study with potential for non-differential errors of misclassification in fluoridation assignment and outcome measurement and residual and/or unmeasured confounding. Decayed, missing and filled teeth data have not been validated. Water fluoridation cost estimates are based on existing programmes between 2010 and 2020, and therefore do not include the potentially significant capital investment required for new programmes.

Conclusions

Receipt of optimal water fluoridation between 2010 and 2020 resulted in very small health effects, which may not be meaningful for individuals, and we could find no evidence of a reduction in social inequalities. Existing water fluoridation programmes in England produced a positive return on investment between 2010 and 2020 due to slightly lower National Health Service treatment costs. These relatively small savings should be evaluated against the projected costs and lifespan of any proposed capital investment in water fluoridation, including new programmes.

Future work

National Health Service dental data are a valuable resource for research. Further validation and measures to improve quality and completeness are warranted.

Trial registrations

This trial is registered as ISRCTN96479279, CAG: 20/CAG/0072, IRAS: 20/NE/0144.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128533) and is published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 12, No. 5. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Network analysis of depression, cognitive functions, and suicidal ideation in patients with diabetes: an epidemiological study in Iran

AIMS

The main aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of suicidal ideation and previous suicide attempts among Iranian patients diagnosed with Type-1 diabetes (T1D) and Type-2 diabetes (T2D). Additionally, the study sought to estimate the network structure of depressive symptoms and cognitive functions.

METHODS

1073 patients participated in the current study. We used Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), Ask Suicide-Screening Questionnaire, diabetes-related factors, and a battery of cognitive functions tasks to estimate network structures. Also, suicidal ideations and suicide attempts prevalence have been estimated. Statistical analyses were performed using R-studio software, including mixed-graphical models (MGMs) for undirected effects and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) for directed effects.

RESULTS

The prevalence of suicidal ideation was 29.97% in T1D and 26.81% in T2D (p < 0.05). The history of suicide attempts was higher in T1D (10.78%) compared to T2D (8.36%) (p < 0.01). In the MRF networks for T1D, suicidal ideation was directly linked to 'feeling guilt (PHQ.6)', 'Suicide (PHQ.9)', HbA1c, and FBS, while the Inhibition node was directly related to suicidal ideation. The DAGs suggested connections between 'depression', HbA1c, and 'inhibition' with suicidal ideation, along with a link between the current family history of suicide attempts and the patient's history of suicide attempts. For T2D, the MRF networks indicated direct links between suicidal ideation and 'anhedonia (PHQ.1)', 'suicide (PHQ.9)', age, being female, and BMI, with inhibition also being directly related to suicidal ideation. The DAGs revealed connections between 'depression', age, and 'inhibition' with suicidal ideation, as well as links between being female or single/divorced and the patient's history of suicide attempts.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that suicide ideation is highly prevalent in patients with diabetes, and these symptoms should be carefully monitored in these patients.

Detection of elevated levels of PINK1 in plasma from patients with idiopathic Parkinson's disease

Backgrounds

Numerous lines of evidence support the intricate interplay between Parkinson's disease (PD) and the PINK1-dependent mitophagy process. This study aimed to evaluate differences in plasma PINK1 levels among idiopathic PD, PD syndromes (PDs), and healthy controls.

Methods

A total of 354 participants were included, consisting of 197 PD patients, 50 PDs patients, and 107 healthy controls were divided into two cohorts, namely the modeling cohort (cohort 1) and the validated cohort (cohort 2). An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based analysis was performed on PINK1 and α-synuclein oligomer (Asy-no). The utilization of the area under the curve (AUC) within the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves served as a robust and comprehensive approach to evaluate and quantify the predictive efficacy of plasma biomarkers alone, as well as combined models, in distinguishing PD patients from controls.

Results

PINK1 and Asy-no were elevated in the plasma of PD and PDs patients compared to healthy controls. The AUCs of PINK1 (0.771) and Asy-no (0.787) were supposed to be potentially eligible plasma biomarkers differentiating PD from controls but could not differentiate PD from PDs. Notably, the PINK + Asy-no + Clinical RBD model showed the highest performance in the modeling cohort and was comparable with the PINK1 + Clinical RBD in the validation cohort. Moreover, there is no significant correlation between PINK1 and UPDRS, MMSE, HAMD, HAMA, RBDQ-HK, and ADL scores.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that elevated PINK1 in plasma holds the potential to serve as a non-invasive tool for distinguishing PD patients from controls. Moreover, the outcomes of our investigation lend support to the plausibility of implementing a feasible blood test in future clinical translation.

Causal Mediation of Neighborhood-Level Pediatric Hospitalization Inequities

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Population-wide racial inequities in child health outcomes are well documented. Less is known about causal pathways linking inequities and social, economic, and environmental exposures. Here, we sought to estimate the total inequities in population-level hospitalization rates and determine how much is mediated by place-based exposures and community characteristics.

METHODS

We employed a population-wide, neighborhood-level study that included youth <18 years hospitalized between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2022. We defined a causal directed acyclic graph a priori to estimate the mediating pathways by which marginalized population composition causes census tract-level hospitalization rates. We used negative binomial regression models to estimate hospitalization rate inequities and how much of these inequities were mediated indirectly through place-based social, economic, and environmental exposures.

RESULTS

We analyzed 50 719 hospitalizations experienced by 28 390 patients. We calculated census tract-level hospitalization rates per 1000 children, which ranged from 10.9 to 143.0 (median 45.1; interquartile range 34.5 to 60.1) across included tracts. For every 10% increase in the marginalized population, the tract-level hospitalization rate increased by 6.2% (95% confidence interval: 4.5 to 8.0). After adjustment for tract-level community material deprivation, crime risk, English usage, housing tenure, family composition, hospital access, greenspace, traffic-related air pollution, and housing conditions, no inequity remained (0.2%, 95% confidence interval: -2.2 to 2.7). Results differed when considering subsets of asthma, type 1 diabetes, sickle cell anemia, and psychiatric disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide additional evidence supporting structural racism as a significant root cause of inequities in child health outcomes, including outcomes at the population level.

Building Learning Healthcare Systems for Critical Care Medicine

Learning healthcare systems are an evolving way of integrating informatics, analytics, and continuous improvement into daily practice in healthcare. This article discusses strategies to build learning healthcare systems for critical care medicine.

Examining psychosocial pathways to explain the link between breastfeeding practices and child behaviour in a longitudinal cohort

OBJECTIVE

Breastfeeding is associated with reduced postpartum depression, stronger parent-child relationships, and fewer behavioral disorders in early childhood. We tested the mediating roles of postpartum depression and parent-child relationship in the association between breastfeeding practices and child behavior.

STUDY DESIGN

We used standardized questionnaire data from a subset of the CHILD Cohort Study (n = 1,573) to measure postpartum depression at 6 months, 1 year and 2 years, parent-child relationship 1 year and 2 years, and child behavior at 5 years using the Child Behavior Checklist (range 0-100). Breastfeeding practices were measured at 3 months (none, partial, some expressed, all direct at the breast), 6 months (none, partial, exclusive), 12 months, and 24 months (no, yes). Confounders included birth factors, maternal characteristics, and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Breast milk feeding at 3 or 6 months was associated with - 1.13 (95% CI: -2.19-0.07) to -2.14 (95% CI: -3.46, -0.81) lower (better) child behavior scores. Reduced postpartum depression at 6 months mediated between 11.5% and 16.6% of the relationship between exclusive breast milk feeding at 3 months and better child behavior scores. Together, reduced postpartum depression at 1 year and reduced parent-child dysfunction at 2 years mediated between 21.9% and 32.1% of the relationship between breastfeeding at 12 months and better child behavior scores.

CONCLUSION

Postpartum depression and parent-child relationship quality partially mediate the relationship between breastfeeding practices and child behavior. Breastfeeding, as well as efforts to support parental mental health and parent-child relationships, may help to improve child behavior.

Epidemiological insights into the burden of feline upper respiratory tract infections in Queensland RSPCA shelters

INTRODUCTION

Feline upper respiratory tract infection (FURTI) is a severe problem in animal shelters where there is high turnover of populations and compromised immunity. This retrospective cohort study explores associations of potential animal-based and environmental-based factors with the risk of FURTI, where a previously modelled infection classification is used as the outcome of interest. The study type is a retrospective cohort and the measures of association include Odds Ratios and conditional predictions.

OBJECTIVES

To gain epidemiological insights into variation in FURTI using retrospective data from one of Australia's leading animal shelters.

METHODS

We stratified FURTI by admission and environmental variables. Predicted infection status, obtained using a machine-learning classifier trained on clinical text (accuracy 0.95 [CI 0.92, 0.97]), was used as the outcome of interest. Prior assumptions were represented by a causal framework or a direct acyclic graph (DAG), which informed creation of multiple Bernoulli models with an observational and prior component.

RESULTS

We analysed 43,431 feline entries over 8 years. Males were 1.24 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.31) times more likely than females to be classified as positive, while already desexed animals were only 0.68 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.72) as likely to be classified as positive compared to those not desexed on entry. Cats (>4 months) were twice as likely (95% CI 1.91 to 2.09) as kittens (0-4 months) to be classified positive. Animals entering the shelter as seized by the inspectorate (n = 415) were more likely to be classified positive compared to animals from other sources. Predicted infection probability increased in winter and showed a linear pattern with how full the shelter was.

CONCLUSION

This study estimates the association between animal and environmental variables of interest and FURTI classification status, thus better interpreting the distribution of disease as predicted by a previously uninterpretable model. This analysis gives much needed insight into the types of changes in an animal's environment that can impact final animal outcomes.

Disentangling the link between social determinants of health and child survival in Nigeria during the Sustainable Development Goals era: a hierarchical path analysis of time-to-event outcome

While social determinants of health have been perennially linked to child survival in resource-limited countries, the precise and tested pathways to effect are not clearly understood. The objective of this study was therefore to identify the critical pathways as posited a priori in a model through which social factors (at maternal, household, and community levels) determine neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities in Nigeria. Using a novel analytic approach (hierarchical path modelling for predicting accelerated failure time) to estimate (in)direct and total effects of social determinants of child survival, we analysed 30,960 live births (weighted data for representativeness), obtained from the 2016/2017 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey. There were three outcome variables: time until occurrence of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities. The independent variables were layered factors related to child, maternal, household and community. Geographical region, rurality of residence, infrastructural development, maternal education, contraceptive use, marital status, and maternal age at birth were found to operate more indirectly on neonatal, infant, and under-five survival. Child survival is due to direct effects of child's sex (female), gestational type (singleton), birth spacing (children whose mothers delivered at least two years apart), and maternal age at delivery (20-34 years). According to the path coefficients, the indirect effects of geographical regions are the most influential determinants of child survival, accounting for 30% (neonatal), 37.1% (infant) and 39.9% (under-five) of the total effects. This study offers comprehensive set of factors, and linked pathways, at the maternal, household, and community levels that are associated with child survival in Nigeria. To accelerate progress towards Sustainable Development Goal targets for child survival and reduce geographical inequities, stakeholders should implement more impactful policies that promote maternal education, contraceptive use and improve living conditions of women (especially in rural areas of northern Nigeria). Future research should focus on identifying the most effective interventions for addressing these social determinants of child survival in Nigeria.

Association of adverse childhood experiences with anemia in older Chinese: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study

To examine the association of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) with anemia among older people. 24,116 participants aged 50 years or above were recruited. Multivariable linear and logistic regression was used to assess the associations of self-reported ACEs number with hemoglobin concentrations (g/dL) and presence of anemia. Older individuals with two or more ACEs, versus no ACEs, showed lower hemoglobin concentrations (β =  - 0.08 g/dL, 95% confidence intervals (CI) - 0.12 to - 0.03) and higher odds of anemia (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.59). A more pronounced association between ACEs and anemia in the lower education group was found, while the association became non-significant in those with higher education (P for ACEs-education interaction = 0.02). ACEs was associated with anemia in older people, and the association was stronger in those with lower education, highlighting the significance of early-life psychological stressors assessment and consideration of education background in geriatric care.

Maternal Iron and Vitamin D Status during the Second Trimester Is Associated with Third Trimester Depression Symptoms among Pregnant Participants in the APrON Cohort

BACKGROUND

The maternal status of multiple micronutrients during pregnancy and postpartum and their potential associations with maternal health outcomes are largely undescribed.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine associations between maternal iron and vitamin D status, individually and in combination, on depression symptoms in pregnant individuals.

METHODS

The Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition cohort study included pregnant participants and their children from Calgary and Edmonton, Canada. Iron biomarkers (serum ferritin [SF], soluble transferrin receptor, and hepcidin) were measured via immunoassays and vitamin D [25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) and 3-epi-25-hydoxyvitamin D3 (3-epi-25(OH)D3)] metabolites were quantifed using liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectroscopy. Four categories of maternal iron and vitamin D status during the second trimester were conceptualized using concentrations of SF and total 25-hydoxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], respectively. Maternal Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) scores during the third trimester (n = 1920) and 3 mo postpartum (n = 1822) were obtained.

RESULTS

Concentrations of maternal 25(OH)D3, 3-epi-25(OH)D3, and the ratio of both metabolites were significantly higher during the second trimester compared with their status at 3 mo postpartum. Higher second trimester maternal concentrations of SF (β: -0.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.5, -0.01), hepcidin (β: -0.5; 95% CI: -0.9, -0.2), and 25(OH)D3 (β: -0.01; 95% CI: -0.02, -0.004) predicted lower maternal EPDS scores during the third trimester. Pregnant individuals with a low iron (SF <15 μg/L) and replete vitamin D (25(OH)D ≥75 nmol/L) (β: 1.1; 95% CI: 0.03, 2.1) or low iron (SF <15 μg/L) and vitamin D (25(OH)D <75 nmol/L) (β: 2.2; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.2) status during midpregnancy had higher third trimester EPDS scores compared with those that were replete in both micronutrients.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher midpregnancy maternal iron and vitamin D status, independently or in combination, predicted fewer maternal depression symptoms in the third trimester. Concentrations of maternal 25(OH)D3 and 3-epi-25(OH)D3 may be lower in the postpartum period compared with midpregnancy.

Effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on infant lung function, wheeze, and respiratory infections in Australian children

BACKGROUND

Prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) is a known risk factor for a range of adverse outcomes, such as facial dysmorphism, adverse birth outcomes, and neurodevelopmental changes. Preclinical research shows that PAE also inhibits lung development, lowers surfactant protein expression, has detrimental effects on alveolar macrophages, and decreases both T and B cell numbers. However, clinical evidence of respiratory impacts from PAE is limited. This study explored whether lung function, wheeze, and incidence of respiratory infections differ in children with PAE compared with unexposed children.

METHODS

Data from the Barwon Infant Study (n = 1074) were examined. PAE data were extracted from maternal questionnaires at trimesters 1 and 2 (combined), and trimester 3, and included as "total standard drinks" during each trimester and total pregnancy intake, a binary yes/no for PAE, and binge drinking (>5 standard drinks in one session). Respiratory outcomes were parent-reported wheeze, lung function (measured by multiple breath washout), and parent report and medical record indicators of health service attendances for respiratory conditions. Linear and logistic regressions were performed to quantify relationships between PAE and respiratory outcomes, controlling for socioeconomic status, birthweight, sex, gestational age, and maternal smoking.

RESULTS

Binge drinking was associated with increased health service attendance for respiratory condition(s) in the first 12 months of life (OR = 5.0, 95% CI (1.7, 20.7), p = 0.008). We did not find a relationship between binary PAE and binge drinking with lung function at 4 weeks of age or wheeze at 12 months. The number of standard drinks consumed in trimester two was associated with a lower lung clearance index (β = -0.011 turnovers, 95% CI (-0.0200, -0.0013), p = 0.03), and a small increase in functional residual capacity (β = 0.34 mL, 95% CI (0.02, 0.66), p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

We found an association between binge drinking and health service utilization for respiratory conditions in infancy, but no evidence that low-level PAE was associated with adverse respiratory outcomes.

Hemorrhage rates in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous alteplase and thrombectomy versus thrombectomy alone

BACKGROUND

Intravenous alteplase treatment (IVT) for acute ischemic stroke carries a risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). However, reperfusion of an occluded vessel itself may contribute to the risk of ICH. We determined whether IVT and reperfusion are associated with ICH or its volume in the Multicenter Randomized Clinical trial of Endovascular treatment for Acute ischemic stroke in the Netherlands (MR CLEAN)-NO IV trial.

METHODS

The MR CLEAN-NO IV trial randomized patients with acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion to receive either IVT followed by endovascular treatment (EVT) or EVT alone. ICH was classified according to the Heidelberg bleeding classification on follow-up MRI or CT approximately 8 hours-7 days after stroke. Hemorrhage volume was measured with ITK-snap. Successful reperfusion was defined as extended Thrombolysis In Cerebral Infarction (eTICI) score of 2b-3. Multinomial and binary adjusted logistic regression were used to determine the association of IVT and reperfusion with ICH subtypes.

RESULTS

Of 539 included patients, 173 (32%) developed ICH and 30 suffered from symptomatic ICH (sICH) (6%). Of the patients with ICH, 102 had hemorrhagic infarction, 47 had parenchymal hematoma, 44 had SAH, and six had other ICH. Reperfusion was associated with a decreased risk of SAH, and IVT was not associated with SAH (eTICI 2b-3: adjusted OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.97; EVT without IVT: OR 1.6, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.8). Reperfusion status and IVT were not associated with overall ICH, hemorrhage volume, and sICH (sICH: EVT without IVT, OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.41 to 2.25; eTICI 2b-3, OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.05).

CONCLUSION

Neither IVT administration before EVT nor successful reperfusion after EVT were associated with ICH, hemorrhage volume, and sICH. SAH occurred more often in patients for whom successful reperfusion was not achieved.

Effects of accelerated biological age on depressive symptoms in a causal reasoning framework

BACKGROUND

Depression in middle-aged and elderly individuals is multifaceted and heterogeneous, linked to biological age (BA) based on aging-related biomarkers. However, due to confounding with chronological age and the absence of subgroup analysis and causal reasoning, the association between BA and depressive symptoms (DS) might be unstable and requires further investigation.

METHODS

We utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (N = 9478) to perform association analysis, causal inference, and subgroup analysis. BA acceleration (BAA) was derived using machine learning and adjusted for chronological age. A generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) tree algorithm was employed to identify subgroups. The causal reasoning frame included propensity score matching and fast large-scale almost matching exactly.

RESULTS

In the longitudinal analysis, BAA exhibited a consistent and significant positive association with DS, even after controlling for demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, health status, and physical functions. This association remained unchanged within the causal framework. GLMM tree analysis identified three partitioning variables (sex, satisfaction, and BMI) and five subgroups. Further subgroup analysis revealed that BAA exerted the strongest effect on DS among women with less satisfying lives.

LIMITATIONS

Depressive symptoms were evaluated through scale measurements rather than clinical diagnosis. The sample was derived from the general population, not the clinically depressed population.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided the first longitudinal evidence that biological age acceleration increases depressive symptoms under causal reasoning and subgroup analysis, particularly among less satisfied women. And the association between BAA and DS was independent of known risk factors.

Identifying and prioritising future interventions with stakeholders to improve paediatric urgent care pathways in Scotland, UK: a mixed-methods study

OBJECTIVES

To identify and prioritise interventions, from the perspectives of parents and health professionals, which may be alternatives to current unscheduled paediatric urgent care pathways.

DESIGN

FLAMINGO (FLow of AdMissions in chIldren and youNG peOple) is a sequential mixed-methods study, with public and patient involvement (PPI) throughout. Data linkage for urgent admissions and three referral sources: emergency department, out of hours service and general practice, was followed by qualitative interviews with parents and professionals. Findings were presented and discussed at a stakeholder intervention prioritisation event.

SETTING

National Health Service in Scotland, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Quantitative data: children with urgent medical admission to hospital from 2015 to 2017. Qualitative interviews: parents and health professionals with experiences of urgent short stay hospital admissions of children. PPI engagement was conducted with nine parent-toddler groups and a university-based PPI advisory group. Stakeholder event: parents, health professionals and representatives from Scottish Government, academia, charities and PPI attended.

RESULTS

Data for 171 039 admissions which included 92 229 short stay admissions were analysed and 48 health professionals and 21 parents were interviewed. The stakeholder event included 7 parents, 12 health professionals and 28 other stakeholders. Analysis and synthesis of all data identified seven interventions which were prioritised at the stakeholder event: (1) addressing gaps in acute paediatric skills of health professionals working in community settings; (2) assessment and observation of acutely unwell children in community settings; (3) creation of holistic children's 'hubs'; (4) adoption of 'hospital at home' models; and three specialised care pathways for subgroups of children; (5) convulsions; (6) being aged <2 years old; and (7) wheeze/bronchiolitis. Stakeholders prioritised interventions 1, 2 and 3; these could be combined into a whole population intervention. Barriers to progressing these include resources, staffing and rurality.

CONCLUSIONS

Health professionals and families want future interventions that are patient-centred, community-based and aligned to outcomes that matter to them.

Incorporating causal inference perspectives into psychoneuroimmunology: A simulation study highlighting concerns about controlling for adiposity in immunopsychiatry

Psychoneuroimmunology and immunopsychiatry are quickly approaching a critical point where the clinical translatability of their evidence base will be tested. To maximize chances for translational success, we believe researchers must adopt causal inference techniques that augment the causal relevance of estimates given theorized causal structures. To illustrate the utility of incorporating causal inference perspectives into psychoneuroimmunology, we applied directed acyclic graphs and a combination of empirical and simulated data to demonstrate the consequences of controlling for adiposity when testing the association between inflammation and depression under the plausible causal structure of increases in adipose tissue leading to greater inflammation that in turn promotes depression. Effect size estimates were pulled from a dataset combining the Midlife in the United States 2 (MIDUS-2) and MIDUS Refresher datasets. Data were extracted and used to simulate data reflecting an adiposity → inflammation → depression causal structure. Next, a Monte Carlo simulation study with 1,000 iterations and three sample size scenarios (Ns = 100, 250, and 500) was conducted testing whether controlling for adiposity when estimating the relation between inflammation and depression influenced the precision of this estimate. Across all simulation scenarios, controlling for adiposity reduced precision of the inflammation → depression estimate, suggesting that researchers primarily interested in quantifying inflammation → depression associations should not control for adiposity. This work thus underscores the importance of incorporating causal inference approaches into psychoneuroimmunological research.

Parental Mental Health and Childhood Respiratory Outcomes in a Severe Bronchiolitis Cohort

Parental mental health conditions appear to contribute to the development of childhood respiratory illness. We investigated the relationship between parental mental health and childhood respiratory illness using data from a 17-center prospective cohort study of infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis between 2011 and 2014 (n = 921). Among 779 (84.6%) participants with self-reported parental mental health history data, 184 (23.6%) had parental history of depression and 155 (19.9%) had anxiety. Multivariable analyses found that both parental history of depression (hazard ratio [HR] 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.99) and anxiety (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52) were associated with an increased risk of recurrent wheezing by age 3 years. However, only parental history of anxiety was associated with asthma by age 5 years (odds ratio 1.79, 95% CI 1.25-2.55). Further research on exposure severity, other early life stressors, and effective methods of parental psychosocial support is needed to develop targeted risk factor prevention strategies to reduce the burden of childhood respiratory illness.

Determinants of the onset and prognosis of the post-COVID-19 condition: a 2-year prospective observational cohort study

Background

At least 5-10% of subjects surviving COVID-19 develop the post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) or "Long COVID". The clinical presentation of PCC is heterogeneous, its pathogenesis is being deciphered, and objective, validated biomarkers are lacking. It is unknown if PCC is a single entity or a heterogeneous syndrome with overlapping pathophysiological basis. The large US RECOVER study identified four clusters of subjects with PCC according to their presenting symptoms. However, the long-term clinical implications of PCC remain unknown.

Methods

We conducted a 2-year prospective cohort study of subjects surviving COVID-19, including individuals fulfilling the WHO PCC definition and subjects with full clinical recovery. We systematically collected post-COVID-19 symptoms using prespecified questionnaires and performed additional diagnostic imaging tests when needed. Factors associated with PCC were identified and modelled using logistic regression. Unsupervised clustering analysis was used to group subjects with PCC according to their presenting symptoms. Factors associated with PCC recovery were modelled using a direct acyclic graph approach.

Findings

The study included 548 individuals, 341 with PCC, followed for a median of 23 months (IQR 16.5-23.5), and 207 subjects fully recovered. In the model with the best fit, subjects who were male and had tertiary studies were less likely to develop PCC, whereas a history of headache, or presence of tachycardia, fatigue, neurocognitive and neurosensitive complaints and dyspnea at COVID-19 diagnosis predicted the development of PCC. The cluster analysis revealed the presence of three symptom clusters with an additive number of symptoms. Only 26 subjects (7.6%) recovered from PCC during follow-up; almost all of them (n = 24) belonged to the less symptomatic cluster A, dominated mainly by fatigue. Recovery from PCC was more likely in subjects who were male, required ICU admission, or had cardiovascular comorbidities, hyporexia and/or smell/taste alterations during acute COVID-19. Subjects presenting with muscle pain, impaired attention, dyspnea, or tachycardia, conversely, were less likely to recover from PCC.

Interpretation

Preexisting medical and socioeconomic factors, as well as acute COVID-19 symptoms, are associated with the development of and recovery from the PCC. Recovery is extremely rare during the first 2 years, posing a major challenge to healthcare systems.

Funding

Fundació Lluita contra les Infeccions.

FeBRILe3: Safety Evaluation of Febrile Infant Guidelines Through Prospective Bayesian Monitoring

OBJECTIVES

Despite evidence supporting earlier discharge of well-appearing febrile infants at low risk of serious bacterial infection (SBI), admissions for ≥48 hours remain common. Prospective safety monitoring may support broader guideline implementation.

METHODS

A sequential Bayesian safety monitoring framework was used to evaluate a new hospital guideline recommending early discharge of low-risk infants. Hospital readmissions within 7 days of discharge were regularly assessed against safety thresholds, derived from historic rates and expert opinion, and specified a priori (8 per 100 infants). Infants aged under 3 months admitted to 2 Western Australian metropolitan hospitals for management of fever without source were enrolled (August 2019-December 2021), to a prespecified maximum 500 enrolments.

RESULTS

Readmission rates remained below the prespecified threshold at all scheduled analyses. Median corrected age was 34 days, and 14% met low-risk criteria (n = 71). SBI was diagnosed in 159 infants (32%), including urinary tract infection (n = 140) and bacteraemia (n = 18). Discharge occurred before 48 hours for 192 infants (38%), including 52% deemed low-risk. At study completion, 1 of 37 low-risk infants discharged before 48 hours had been readmitted (3%), for issues unrelated to SBI diagnosis. In total, 20 readmissions were identified (4 per 100 infants; 95% credible interval 3, 6), with >0.99 posterior probability of being below the prespecified noninferiority threshold, indicating acceptable safety.

CONCLUSIONS

A Bayesian monitoring approach supported safe early discharge for many infants, without increased risk of readmission. This framework may be used to embed safety evaluations within future guideline implementation programs to further reduce low-value care.

Maternal Iron Status Is Dynamic Throughout Pregnancy and Might Predict Birth Outcomes in a Sex Dependent Manner: Results from the Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition (APrON) Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Developmental responses to nutrient deprivation may differ by fetal sex. Despite this, relationships between maternal prenatal iron biomarkers and birth outcomes when stratifying by offspring sex are poorly described, especially in healthy cohorts.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine associations between maternal iron biomarkers and birth weights (BWs) and birth head circumferences (BHCs) among female and male newborns to assess whether the potential predictive ability of iron biomarkers on birth outcomes differs by offspring sex.

METHODS

The Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition (APrON) cohort study recruited 2189 pregnant individuals from Calgary and Edmonton, Canada. Maternal blood was drawn at each trimester and 3 mo postpartum. Maternal serum ferritin (SF) concentrations were measured using chemiluminescent immunoassays and erythropoietin (EPO), hepcidin, and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Ratios of sTfR:SF and hepcidin:EPO were calculated and birth outcomes accessed through delivery records. Directed acyclic graphs informed multivariate regression models.

RESULTS

The risk of maternal iron deficiency increased throughout pregnancy because ∼61% showed depleted iron stores (SF < 15 μg/L) by the third trimester. Maternal hepcidin, SF, sTfR, and sTfR:SF concentrations changed across time (P < 0.01), and participants carrying female fetuses consistently (across 6 biomarkers) showed a lower iron status during the third trimester compared with those with male fetuses (P < 0.05). Higher maternal SF and hepcidin:EPO during the third trimester was associated with lower BWs in males (P = 0.006 for SF; P = 0.03 for hepcidin:EPO) and females (P = 0.02 for SF; P = 0.02 for hepcidin:EPO). There were additional inverse associations between BWs and third trimester maternal hepcidin (P = 0.03) and hemoglobin (P = 0.004) and between BHCs and maternal SF (second trimester; P < 0.05) and Hb (third trimester P = 0.02) but only in males.

CONCLUSIONS

Relationships between maternal iron biomarkers and BWs and BHCs may depend on the timing of pregnancy and offpsring sex. There was a high risk of third trimester iron storage depletion among generally healthy pregnant individuals.

Are childhood oral health behaviours and experiences associated with dental anxiety in adolescence?

BACKGROUND

Dental anxiety is associated with untreated dental caries. Understanding which childhood behaviours or experiences have the strongest association with later dental anxiety may help focus preventive strategies, subsequently limiting the burden of dental caries and anxiety.

AIM

The aim of this study was to explore whether behaviours and experiences during childhood were associated with adolescent dental anxiety.

DESIGN

Data were obtained from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations between adolescent dental anxiety and childhood behaviours and experiences. 1791 participants answered questions about oral health behaviours and experiences at 8 years of age and dental anxiety questions aged 17 years.

RESULTS

Children with experience of invasive dental treatment were more likely to have dental anxiety at 17 years of age than those who had not experienced dental treatment (OR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.12, 2.37; p = .011). Irregular dental attenders in childhood had over three times the odds of dental anxiety by adolescence, compared with regular attenders (OR 3.67 95% CI: 1.52, 8.88; p = .004).

CONCLUSIONS

Adolescent dental anxiety is associated with invasive treatment and irregular dental attendance in childhood. A history of irregular attendance or invasive treatment may serve as a useful predictor when considering dental anxiety in young adult patients. Early preventive care supports good attendance and oral health. These actions may have secondary effects of reducing future dental anxiety.