Negative frequency-dependent selection and asymmetrical transformation stabilise multi-strain bacterial population structures

Temporal and geographical lineage dynamics of invasive Streptococcus pyogenes in Australia from 2011 to 2023: a retrospective, multicentre, clinical and genomic epidemiology study

BACKGROUND

Defining the temporal dynamics of invasive Streptococcus pyogenes (group A Streptococcus) and differences between hyperendemic and lower-incidence regions provides crucial insights into pathogen evolution and, in turn, informs preventive measures. We aimed to examine the clinical and temporal lineage dynamics of S pyogenes across different disease settings in Australia to improve understanding of drivers of pathogen diversity.

METHODS

In this retrospective, multicentre, clinical and genomic epidemiology study, we identified cases of invasive S pyogenes infection from normally sterile sites between Jan 1, 2011, and Feb 28, 2023. Data were collected from five hospital networks across low-incidence regions in temperate southeast Australia and the hyperendemic, tropical, and largely remote Top End of the Northern Territory of Australia. The crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) of bloodstream S pyogenes infection comparing the Top End and southeast Australia and in First Nations people compared with non-First Nations people was estimated by quasi-Poisson regression. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, in-hospital mortality, and 30-day mortality for the Top End versus southeast Australia using logistic regression. Retrieved and successfully sequenced isolates were assigned lineages at whole-genome resolution. Temporal trends in the composition of co-circulating lineages were compared between the two regions. We used an S pyogenes-specific multistrain simulated transmission model to examine the relationship between host population-specific parameters and observed pathogen lineage dynamics. The prevalence of accessory genes (those present in 5-95% of all genomes) was compared across geographies and temporal periods to investigate genomic drivers of diversity.

FINDINGS

We identified 500 cases of invasive S pyogenes infection in patients in the Top End and 495 cases in patients in southeast Australia. The crude IRR of bloodstream infection for the Top End compared with southeast Australia was 5·97 (95% CI 4·61-7·73) across the entire study period; in the Top End, infection disproportionately affected First Nations people compared with non-First Nations people (5·41, 4·28-6·89). The odds of in-hospital mortality (OR 0·43, 95% CI 0·26-0·70), 30-day mortality (0·38, 0·23-0·63), and ICU admission (0·42, 0·30-0·59) were lower in the Top End than in southeast Australia. Longitudinal lineage analysis of 642 S pyogenes genomes identified waves of replacement with distinct lineages in the Top End, whereas southeast Australia had a small number of dominant lineages that persisted and cycled in frequency. The transmission model qualitatively reproduced a similar pattern of replacement with distinct lineages when using a high transmission rate, small population size, and high levels of human movement-characteristics similar to those of communities in the hyperendemic Top End. Using a lower transmission rate, larger population size, and lower levels of migration similar to those of communities in urbanised southeast Australia, the transmission model qualitatively reproduced a pattern of dominant lineages that cycled in frequency. Despite distinct circulating lineages, the prevalence of accessory genes in the bacterial population was maintained across geographies and temporal periods.

INTERPRETATION

In a hyperendemic setting, the replacement of distinct S pyogenes lineages occurred in waves, which could be linked to the disproportionate burden of disease and sparse human population in this setting. The maintenance of bacterial gene frequency could be consistent with multilocus selection. These findings suggest that lineage-specific interventions-such as vaccines under development-should consider disease setting and, without broad cross-protection, might lead to lineage replacement.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council, and Leducq Foundation.

Linkage-based ortholog refinement in bacterial pangenomes with CLARC

Bacterial genomes exhibit significant variation in gene content and sequence identity. Pangenome analyses explore this diversity by classifying genes into core and accessory clusters of orthologous groups (COGs). However, strict sequence identity cutoffs can misclassify divergent alleles as different genes, inflating accessory gene counts. CLARC (Connected Linkage and Alignment Redefinition of COGs) [https://github.com/IndraGonz/CLARC] improves pangenome analyses by condensing accessory COGs using functional annotation and linkage information. Through this approach, orthologous groups are consolidated into more practical units of selection. Analyzing 8,000+ Streptococcus pneumoniae genomes, CLARC reduced accessory gene estimates by more than 30% and improved evolutionary predictions based on accessory gene frequencies. By refining COG definitions, CLARC offers critical insights into bacterial evolution, aiding genetic studies across diverse populations.

Vibrio cholerae lineage and pangenome diversity varies geographically across Bangladesh over one year

Cholera is a diarrhoeal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae. It remains a major public health challenge in the endemic region around the Bay of Bengal. Over decadal time scales, one lineage typically dominates the others and spreads in global pandemic waves. However, it remains unclear to what extent diverse lineages co-circulate during a single outbreak season. Defining the pool of diversity during finer time scales is important because the selective pressures that impact V. cholerae - namely antibiotics and phages - are dynamic on these time scales. To study the nationwide diversity of V. cholerae, we long-read sequenced 273 V. cholerae genomes from seven hospitals over one year (2018) in Bangladesh. Four major V. cholerae lineages were identified: known lineages BD-1, BD-2a, and BD-2b, and a novel lineage that we call BD-3. In 2022, BD-1 caused a large cholera outbreak in Dhaka, apparently outcompeting BD-2 lineages. We show that, in 2018, BD-1 was already dominant in the five northern regions, including Dhaka, consistent with an origin from India in the north. By contrast, we observed a higher diversity of lineages in the two southern regions near the coast. The four lineages differed in pangenome content, including integrative and conjugative elements (ICEs) and genes involved in resistance to bacteriophages and antibiotics. Notably, BD-2a lacked an ICE and is predicted to be more sensitive to phages and antibiotics, but nevertheless persisted throughout the year-long sampling period. Genes associated with antibiotic resistance in V. cholerae from Bangladesh in 2006 were entirely absent from all lineages in 2018-19, suggesting shifting costs and benefits of encoding these genes. Together, our results highlight the dynamic nature of the V. cholerae pangenome and the geographic structure of its lineage diversity.

Detecting co-selection through excess linkage disequilibrium in bacterial genomes

Population genomics has revolutionized our ability to study bacterial evolution by enabling data-driven discovery of the genetic architecture of trait variation. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have more recently become accompanied by genome-wide epistasis and co-selection (GWES) analysis, which offers a phenotype-free approach to generating hypotheses about selective processes that simultaneously impact multiple loci across the genome. However, existing GWES methods only consider associations between distant pairs of loci within the genome due to the strong impact of linkage-disequilibrium (LD) over short distances. Based on the general functional organisation of genomes it is nevertheless expected that majority of co-selection and epistasis will act within relatively short genomic proximity, on co-variation occurring within genes and their promoter regions, and within operons. Here, we introduce LDWeaver, which enables an exhaustive GWES across both short- and long-range LD, to disentangle likely neutral co-variation from selection. We demonstrate the ability of LDWeaver to efficiently generate hypotheses about co-selection using large genomic surveys of multiple major human bacterial pathogen species and validate several findings using functional annotation and phenotypic measurements. Our approach will facilitate the study of bacterial evolution in the light of rapidly expanding population genomic data.

Convergent impact of vaccination and antibiotic pressures on pneumococcal populations

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a remarkably adaptable and successful human pathogen, playing dual roles of both asymptomatic carriage in the nasopharynx and invasive disease including pneumonia, bacteremia, and meningitis. Efficacious vaccines and effective antibiotic therapies are critical to mitigating morbidity and mortality. However, clinical interventions can be rapidly circumvented by the pneumococcus by its inherent proclivity for genetic exchange. This leads to an underappreciated interplay between vaccine and antibiotic pressures on pneumococcal populations. Circulating populations have undergone dramatic shifts due to the introduction of capsule-based vaccines of increasing valency imparting strong selective pressures. These alterations in population structure have concurrent consequences on the frequency of antibiotic resistance profiles in the population. This review will discuss the interactions of these two selective forces. Understanding and forecasting the drivers of antibiotic resistance and capsule switching are of critical importance for public health, particularly for such a genetically promiscuous pathogen as S. pneumoniae.

Accurate and fast graph-based pangenome annotation and clustering with ggCaller

Bacterial genomes differ in both gene content and sequence mutations, which underlie extensive phenotypic diversity, including variation in susceptibility to antimicrobials or vaccine-induced immunity. To identify and quantify important variants, all genes within a population must be predicted, functionally annotated, and clustered, representing the "pangenome." Despite the volume of genome data available, gene prediction and annotation are currently conducted in isolation on individual genomes, which is computationally inefficient and frequently inconsistent across genomes. Here, we introduce the open-source software graph-gene-caller (ggCaller). ggCaller combines gene prediction, functional annotation, and clustering into a single workflow using population-wide de Bruijn graphs, removing redundancy in gene annotation and resulting in more accurate gene predictions and orthologue clustering. We applied ggCaller to simulated and real-world bacterial data sets containing hundreds or thousands of genomes, comparing it to current state-of-the-art tools. ggCaller has considerable speed-ups with equivalent or greater accuracy, particularly with data sets containing complex sources of error, such as assembly contamination or fragmentation. ggCaller is also an important extension to bacterial genome-wide association studies, enabling querying of annotated graphs for functional analyses. We highlight this application by functionally annotating DNA sequences with significant associations to tetracycline and macrolide resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae, identifying key resistance determinants that were missed when using only a single reference genome. ggCaller is a novel bacterial genome analysis tool with applications in bacterial evolution and epidemiology.

Metabolic cooperation between conspecific genotypic groups contributes to bacterial fitness

Microbial interactions are important for the survival of species and the stability of the microbial ecosystem. Although bacteria have diverse conspecific genotypes in the natural microbial ecosystem, little is known about whether wild-type strains within species would interact with each other and how the intraspecific interaction influences the growth of the species. In this work, using Lactobacillus acetotolerans, a dominant species with diverse conspecific genotypes in natural food fermentation ecosystems as a case, we studied the interactions between different genotypic groups of this species. In interspecific and intraspecific pairwise cocultures, the growth of L. acetotolerans decreased, but the increase of the phylogenetic similarity would reduce this negative effect, indicating a potential intraspecific interaction of this species. Meanwhile, the strain classification method affected the analysis of intraspecific interactions, which can be efficiently demonstrated using 99.5% average nucleotide identity (ANI) as the strain-level classification method. Using this ANI classification method, we revealed the population fitness significantly increased in cocultures of different genotypic groups. Facilitation involving 11 amino acids was identified between different ANI genotypic groups, which was beneficial for increasing population fitness. This work revealed that wild-type conspecific strains could interact with each other via cooperative metabolic changes and benefit each other to increase fitness. It shed new light on the survival and stability of species in natural microbial ecosystems.

Genomics and pathotypes of the many faces of Escherichia coli

Escherichia coli is the most researched microbial organism in the world. Its varied impact on human health, consisting of commensalism, gastrointestinal disease, or extraintestinal pathologies, has generated a separation of the species into at least eleven pathotypes (also known as pathovars). These are broadly split into two groups, intestinal pathogenic E. coli (InPEC) and extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC). However, components of E. coli's infinite open accessory genome are horizontally transferred with substantial frequency, creating pathogenic hybrid strains that defy a clear pathotype designation. Here, we take a birds-eye view of the E. coli species, characterizing it from historical, clinical, and genetic perspectives. We examine the wide spectrum of human disease caused by E. coli, the genome content of the bacterium, and its propensity to acquire, exchange, and maintain antibiotic resistance genes and virulence traits. Our portrayal of the species also discusses elements that have shaped its overall population structure and summarizes the current state of vaccine development targeted at the most frequent E. coli pathovars. In our conclusions, we advocate streamlining efforts for clinical reporting of ExPEC, and emphasize the pathogenic potential that exists throughout the entire species.

Prokaryotic Pangenomes Act as Evolving Ecosystems

Understanding adaptation to the local environment is a central tenet and a major focus of evolutionary biology. But this is only part of the adaptionist story. In addition to the external environment, one of the main drivers of genome composition is genetic background. In this perspective, I argue that there is a growing body of evidence that intra-genomic selective pressures play a significant part in the composition of prokaryotic genomes and play a significant role in the origin, maintenance and structuring of prokaryotic pangenomes.

Permissive aggregative group formation favors coexistence between cooperators and defectors in yeast

In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the FLO1 gene encodes flocculins that lead to formation of multicellular flocs, that offer protection to the constituent cells. Flo1p was found to preferentially bind to fellow cooperators compared to defectors lacking FLO1 expression, enriching cooperators within the flocs. Given this dual function in cooperation and kin recognition, FLO1 has been termed a "green beard gene". Because of the heterophilic nature of the Flo1p bond however, we hypothesize that kin recognition is permissive and depends on the relative stability of the FLO1+/flo1- versus FLO1+/FLO1+ detachment force F. We combine single-cell measurements of adhesion, individual cell-based simulations of cluster formation, and in vitro flocculation to study the impact of relative bond stability on the evolutionary stability of cooperation. We identify a trade-off between both aspects of the green beard mechanism, with reduced relative bond stability leading to increased kin recognition at the expense of cooperative benefits. We show that the fitness of FLO1 cooperators decreases as their frequency in the population increases, arising from the observed permissive character (F+- = 0.5 F++) of the Flo1p bond. Considering the costs associated with FLO1 expression, this asymmetric selection often results in a stable coexistence between cooperators and defectors.

Analysing pneumococcal invasiveness using Bayesian models of pathogen progression rates

The disease burden attributable to opportunistic pathogens depends on their prevalence in asymptomatic colonisation and the rate at which they progress to cause symptomatic disease. Increases in infections caused by commensals can result from the emergence of "hyperinvasive" strains. Such pathogens can be identified through quantifying progression rates using matched samples of typed microbes from disease cases and healthy carriers. This study describes Bayesian models for analysing such datasets, implemented in an RStan package (https://github.com/nickjcroucher/progressionEstimation). The models converged on stable fits that accurately reproduced observations from meta-analyses of Streptococcus pneumoniae datasets. The estimates of invasiveness, the progression rate from carriage to invasive disease, in cases per carrier per year correlated strongly with the dimensionless values from meta-analysis of odds ratios when sample sizes were large. At smaller sample sizes, the Bayesian models produced more informative estimates. This identified historically rare but high-risk S. pneumoniae serotypes that could be problematic following vaccine-associated disruption of the bacterial population. The package allows for hypothesis testing through model comparisons with Bayes factors. Application to datasets in which strain and serotype information were available for S. pneumoniae found significant evidence for within-strain and within-serotype variation in invasiveness. The heterogeneous geographical distribution of these genotypes is therefore likely to contribute to differences in the impact of vaccination in between locations. Hence genomic surveillance of opportunistic pathogens is crucial for quantifying the effectiveness of public health interventions, and enabling ongoing meta-analyses that can identify new, highly invasive variants.

Heuristic and Hierarchical-Based Population Mining of Salmonella enterica Lineage I Pan-Genomes as a Platform to Enhance Food Safety

The recent incorporation of bacterial whole-genome sequencing (WGS) into Public Health laboratories has enhanced foodborne outbreak detection and source attribution. As a result, large volumes of publicly available datasets can be used to study the biology of foodborne pathogen populations at an unprecedented scale. To demonstrate the application of a heuristic and agnostic hierarchical population structure guided pan-genome enrichment analysis (PANGEA), we used populations of S. enterica lineage I to achieve two main objectives: (i) show how hierarchical population inquiry at different scales of resolution can enhance ecological and epidemiological inquiries; and (ii) identify population-specific inferable traits that could provide selective advantages in food production environments. Publicly available WGS data were obtained from NCBI database for three serovars of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica lineage I (S. Typhimurium, S. Newport, and S. Infantis). Using the hierarchical genotypic classifications (Serovar, BAPS1, ST, cgMLST), datasets from each of the three serovars showed varying degrees of clonal structuring. When the accessory genome (PANGEA) was mapped onto these hierarchical structures, accessory loci could be linked with specific genotypes. A large heavy-metal resistance mobile element was found in the Monophasic ST34 lineage of S. Typhimurium, and laboratory testing showed that Monophasic isolates have on average a higher degree of copper resistance than the Biphasic ones. In S. Newport, an extra sugE gene copy was found among most isolates of the ST45 lineage, and laboratory testing of multiple isolates confirmed that isolates of S. Newport ST45 were on average less sensitive to the disinfectant cetylpyridimium chloride than non-ST45 isolates. Lastly, data-mining of the accessory genomic content of S. Infantis revealed two cryptic Ecotypes with distinct accessory genomic content and distinct ecological patterns. Poultry appears to be the major reservoir for Ecotype 1, and temporal analysis further suggested a recent ecological succession, with Ecotype 2 apparently being displaced by Ecotype 1. Altogether, the use of a heuristic hierarchical-based population structure analysis that includes bacterial pan-genomes (core and accessory genomes) can (1) improve genomic resolution for mapping populations and accessing epidemiological patterns; and (2) define lineage-specific informative loci that may be associated with survival in the food chain.

The role of interspecies recombination in the evolution of antibiotic-resistant pneumococci

Multidrug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae emerge through the modification of core genome loci by interspecies homologous recombinations, and acquisition of gene cassettes. Both occurred in the otherwise contrasting histories of the antibiotic-resistant S. pneumoniae lineages PMEN3 and PMEN9. A single PMEN3 clade spread globally, evading vaccine-induced immunity through frequent serotype switching, whereas locally circulating PMEN9 clades independently gained resistance. Both lineages repeatedly integrated Tn916-type and Tn1207.1-type elements, conferring tetracycline and macrolide resistance, respectively, through homologous recombination importing sequences originating in other species. A species-wide dataset found over 100 instances of such interspecific acquisitions of resistance cassettes and flanking homologous arms. Phylodynamic analysis of the most commonly sampled Tn1207.1-type insertion in PMEN9, originating from a commensal and disrupting a competence gene, suggested its expansion across Germany was driven by a high ratio of macrolide-to-β-lactam consumption. Hence, selection from antibiotic consumption was sufficient for these atypically large recombinations to overcome species boundaries across the pneumococcal chromosome.

Frequency-Dependent Competition Between Strains Imparts Persistence to Perturbations in a Model of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission

In high-transmission endemic regions, local populations of Plasmodium falciparum exhibit vast diversity of the var genes encoding its major surface antigen, with each parasite comprising multiple copies from this diverse gene pool. This strategy to evade the immune system through large combinatorial antigenic diversity is common to other hyperdiverse pathogens. It underlies a series of fundamental epidemiological characteristics, including large reservoirs of transmission from high prevalence of asymptomatics and long-lasting infections. Previous theory has shown that negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) mediated by the acquisition of specific immunity by hosts structures the diversity of var gene repertoires, or strains, in a pattern of limiting similarity that is both non-random and non-neutral. A combination of stochastic agent-based models and network analyses has enabled the development and testing of theory in these complex adaptive systems, where assembly of local parasite diversity occurs under frequency-dependent selection and large pools of variation. We show here the application of these approaches to theory comparing the response of the malaria transmission system to intervention when strain diversity is assembled under (competition-based) selection vs. a form of neutrality, where immunity depends only on the number but not the genetic identity of previous infections. The transmission system is considerably more persistent under NFDS, exhibiting a lower extinction probability despite comparable prevalence during intervention. We explain this pattern on the basis of the structure of strain diversity, in particular the more pronounced fraction of highly dissimilar parasites. For simulations that survive intervention, prevalence under specific immunity is lower than under neutrality, because the recovery of diversity is considerably slower than that of prevalence and decreased var gene diversity reduces parasite transmission. A Principal Component Analysis of network features describing parasite similarity reveals that despite lower overall diversity, NFDS is quickly restored after intervention constraining strain structure and maintaining patterns of limiting similarity important to parasite persistence. Given the described enhanced persistence under perturbation, intervention efforts will likely require longer times than the usual practice to eliminate P. falciparum populations. We discuss implications of our findings and potential analogies for ecological communities with non-neutral assembly processes involving frequency-dependence.

The Origin of Niches and Species in the Bacterial World

Niches are spaces for the biological units of selection, from cells to complex communities. In a broad sense, "species" are biological units of individuation. Niches do not exist without individual organisms, and every organism has a niche. We use "niche" in the Hutchinsonian sense as an abstraction of a multidimensional environmental space characterized by a variety of conditions, both biotic and abiotic, whose quantitative ranges determine the positive or negative growth rates of the microbial individual, typically a species, but also parts of the communities of species contained in this space. Microbial organisms ("species") constantly diversify, and such diversification (radiation) depends on the possibility of opening up unexploited or insufficiently exploited niches. Niche exploitation frequently implies "niche construction," as the colonized niche evolves with time, giving rise to new potential subniches, thereby influencing the selection of a series of new variants in the progeny. The evolution of niches and organisms is the result of reciprocal interacting processes that form a single unified process. Centrifugal microbial diversification expands the limits of the species' niches while a centripetal or cohesive process occurs simultaneously, mediated by horizontal gene transfers and recombinatorial events, condensing all of the information recovered during the diversifying specialization into "novel organisms" (possible future species), thereby creating a more complex niche, where the selfishness of the new organism(s) establishes a "homeostatic power" limiting the niche's variation. Once the niche's full carrying capacity has been reached, reproductive isolation occurs, as no foreign organisms can outcompete the established population/community, thereby facilitating speciation. In the case of individualization-speciation of the microbiota, its contribution to the animal' gut structure is a type of "niche construction," the result of crosstalk between the niche (host) and microorganism(s). Lastly, there is a parallelism between the hierarchy of niches and that of microbial individuals. The increasing anthropogenic effects on the biosphere (such as globalization) might reduce the diversity of niches and bacterial individuals, with the potential emergence of highly transmissible multispecialists (which are eventually deleterious) resulting from the homogenization of the microbiosphere, a possibility that should be explored and prevented.