The risk of indoor sports and culture events for the transmission of COVID-19

Airborne pathogen monitoring and dispersion modelling on passenger ships: A review

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated a profound inability of pre-pandemic passenger ship policies implemented by both ship operators and governmental authorities to detect and address newly emerging diseases. The essentiality of maritime transport puts into focus the risk of approach to address known and new emerging airborne infectious diseases that, due to increasing capacity, are likely to occur on passenger ships. In order to enhance the passenger experience, prepare shipping for pandemics like COVID-19, and improve the resilience and safety of the industry, this review critically synthesises existing literature on (1) monitoring ventilation conditions and aerosol dispersion, linking them to airborne transmission risk using airborne aerosols and ventilation performance as input parameters for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, and (2) modelling airborne disease transmission risk in controlled passenger ship environments. This review analysed 39 studies on aerosol monitoring, thermal comfort, and infection risk modelling on passenger ships (2000-2023). Additionally, 55 papers on CFD modelling of airborne pathogen dispersion were reviewed: 22 included validation, with most focused on built environments and only four specifically addressing ship environments. Two major challenges relate to the complexity and poorly characterised ventilation boundary conditions on passenger ships, and the other is the lack of suitable validation data. For this reason, ship experimental studies are required for CFD model validation. Only a handful of studies were found that have measured aerosol concentrations on board passenger ships. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies conducted on aerosol mass or airborne transmission sampling on board passenger ships or other types of vessels. The results of this review have the potential to create synergistic connections between experimental and modelling studies to inform, characterise and improve the development of numerical models that can accurately estimate infection risk on ships for prevention, mitigation and management of outbreaks.

Implementing SARS-CoV-2 Testing during a Large-Scale Sporting Event in Africa: Lessons Learned from the Africa Football Cup of Nations Tournament in Cameroon

During the 33rd Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) football tournament in Cameroon, organizers and health authorities required a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result <48 hours before entry and provided free SARS-CoV-2 testing and vaccination at stadium and fan zone entrances. We describe the outcomes and implementation of mandatory SARS-CoV-2 testing at fan zones during AFCON. All consenting fan zones attendees were administered an electronic questionnaire capturing exposure factors, COVID-19-like symptoms, and COVID-19 vaccination status, before being tested for SARS-CoV-2 using an antigen rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT). Participants testing positive were sampled for confirmatory real-time SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing for variant surveillance. The case detection rate was estimated using PCR-confirmed cases, and the challenges were summarized from staff discussions and project/study documentation. In total, 4,820 fan zone attendees (median [interquartile range] age 30 [24-38], 27.7% females) were tested for SARS-CoV-2, including 1,228 (25.5%) fully vaccinated. Of 4,820 participants, 148 (3.1%) had a positive Ag-RDT result, of whom 67 consented to PCR testing and 19 of 64 (29.7%) were confirmed PCR-positive. The case detection rate was 40.1 (95% CI: 24.2-62.7) per 10,000 attendees. The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was found in all 11 samples successfully sequenced. The implementation of mandatory SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT at fan zone entrances was challenged by high attendance volume just prior to matches, lobbying of economic stakeholders, and inconsistent quality assurance when using test kits. Despite the challenges encountered, implementing mandatory SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT at fan zones, was a unique opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 case identification and genomic surveillance.

Advances in Triboelectric Nanogenerators for Microbial Disinfection

The global COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the pivotal role of microbial disinfection technologies, driving the demand for innovative, efficient, and sustainable solutions. Triboelectric technology, known for efficiently converting ambient mechanical energy into electrical energy, has emerged as a promising candidate to address these needs. Self-powered electro-based microbial disinfection using triboelectric nanogenerators (TENGs) has emerged as a promising solution. TENGs have demonstrated effective disinfection capabilities in various settings, including water, air, surfaces, and wounds. This review explores the advancements in TENG-based microbial disinfection, highlighting its mechanisms and applications. By utilizing triboelectric technology, it provides comprehensive insights into the development of sustainable and efficient solutions for microbial control across diverse environments.

Comparing strategies for the mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 airborne infection risk in tiered auditorium venues

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that reliable risk assessment of venues is still challenging and resulted in the indiscriminate closure of many venues worldwide. Therefore, this study used an experimental, numerical and analytical approach to investigate the airborne transmission risk potential of differently ventilated, sized and shaped venues. The data were used to assess the magnitude of effect of various mitigation measures and to develop recommendations. Here we show that, in general, positions in the near field of an emission source were at high risk, while the risk of infection from positions in the far field varied depending on the ventilation strategy. Occupancy, airflow rate, residence time, virus variants, activity level and face masks affected the individual and global infection risk in all venues. The global infection risk was lowest for the displacement ventilation case, making it the most effective ventilation strategy for keeping airborne transmission and the number of secondary cases low, compared to mixing or natural ventilation.

Indirect and direct effects of nighttime light on COVID-19 mortality using satellite image mapping approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of understanding environmental factors in disease transmission. This study aims to explore the spatial association between nighttime light (NTL) from satellite imagery and COVID-19 mortality. It particularly examines how NTL serves as a pragmatic proxy to estimate human interaction in illuminated nocturnal area, thereby impacting viral transmission dynamics to neighboring areas, which is defined as spillover effect. Analyzing 43,199 COVID-19 deaths from national mortality data during January 2020 and October 2022, satellite-derived NTL data, and various environmental and socio-demographic covariates, we employed the Spatial Durbin Error Model to estimate the direct and indirect effect of NTL on COVID-19 mortality. Higher NTL was initially directly linked to increased COVID-19 mortality but this association diminished over time. The spillover effect also changed: during the early 3rd wave (December 2020 - February 2021), a unit (nanoWatts/sr/cm2) increase in NTL led to a 7.9% increase in neighboring area mortality (p = 0.013). In contrast, in the later 7th wave (July - September 2022), dominated by Omicron, a unit increase in NTL resulted in an 8.9% decrease in mortality in neighboring areas (p = 0.029). The shift from a positive to a negative spillover effect indicates a change in infection dynamics during the pandemic. The study provided a novel approach to assess nighttime human activity and its influence on disease transmission, offering insights for public health strategies utilizing satellite imagery, particularly when direct data collection is impractical while the collection from space is readily available.

Survey of public knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding personal protection against COVID-19 in the post-pandemic era

In the emerging post-pandemic era (the 'wavelet' era), humans must coexist with viruses for the foreseeable future, and personal protective behaviors will largely replace national-level preventive measures. In this new normal, encouraging the public to implement proper personal protective behaviors against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is vital to the sustainable development of cities and communities. This knowledge-attitude-practice (KAP) survey conducted in Chengdu (N = 900) narrowed the knowledge gap regarding post-pandemic public practices of protective behavior. Findings show that:(1) approximately 1/3 of the respondents are currently not concerned about COVID-19 at all; (2) respondents with different demographics and individual COVID-19-related factors showed significant differences in practice behaviors indoors and outdoors; (3) vulnerable groups performed better in practice behavior indoors/outdoors; (4) because the public may relax their vigilance outdoors, public places may become a transmission threat in the next outbreak; (5) attitudes are important, but limited incentives for practice; and (6) when knowledge increases beyond a threshold (68.75-75% in this study), protective behaviors decrease. Our results suggest that authorities must continue to educate and motivate the public, extending measures to cover personal protective practices, and have targeted policies for specific demographics to ensure equity in healthcare in the event of another pandemic (COVID-19 and alike crisis). Besides, comparing the results of the current study with similar studies conducted in other parts of the world can provide insights into how different populations respond to and adopt COVID-19 protective behaviors. The epidemiologists can use the data collected by this and other KAP surveys to refine epidemiologic models, which can help predict the spread of the virus and the impact of interventions in different settings.

Highly efficient microbial inactivation enabled by tunneling charges injected through two-dimensional electronics

Airborne pathogens retain prolonged infectious activity once attached to the indoor environment, posing a pervasive threat to public health. Conventional air filters suffer from ineffective inactivation of the physics-separated microorganisms, and the chemical-based antimicrobial materials face challenges of poor stability/efficiency and inefficient viral inactivation. We, therefore, developed a rapid, reliable antimicrobial method against the attached indoor bacteria/viruses using a large-scale tunneling charge-motivated disinfection device fabricated by directly dispersing monolayer graphene on insulators. Free charges can be stably immobilized under the monolayer graphene through the tunneling effect. The stored charges can motivate continuous electron loss of attached microorganisms for accelerated disinfection, overcoming the diffusion limitation of chemical disinfectants. Complete (>99.99%) and broad-spectrum disinfection was achieved <1 min of attachment to the scaled-up device (25 square centimeters), reliably for 72 hours at high temperature (60°C) and humidity (90%). This method can be readily applied to high-touch surfaces in indoor environments for pathogen control.

Viral infection transmission and indoor air quality: A systematic review

Respiratory disease transmission in indoor environments presents persistent challenges for health authorities, as exemplified by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. This underscores the urgent necessity to investigate the dynamics of viral infection transmission within indoor environments. This systematic review delves into the methodologies of respiratory infection transmission in indoor settings and explores how the quality of indoor air (IAQ) can be controlled to alleviate this risk while considering the imperative of sustainability. Among the 2722 articles reviewed, 178 were retained based on their focus on respiratory viral infection transmission and IAQ. Fifty eight articles delved into SARS-CoV-2 transmission, 21 papers evaluated IAQ in contexts of other pandemics, 53 papers assessed IAQ during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and 46 papers examined control strategies to mitigate infectious transmission. Furthermore, of the 46 papers investigating control strategies, only nine considered energy consumption. These findings highlight clear gaps in current research, such as analyzing indoor air and surface samples for specific indoor environments, oversight of indoor and outdoor parameters (e.g., temperature, relative humidity (RH), and building orientation), neglect of occupancy schedules, and the absence of considerations for energy consumption while enhancing IAQ. This study distinctly identifies the indoor environmental conditions conducive to the thriving of each respiratory virus, offering IAQ trade-offs to mitigate the risk of dominant viruses at any given time. This study argues that future research should involve digital twins in conjunction with machine learning (ML) techniques. This approach aims to enhance IAQ by analyzing the transmission patterns of various respiratory viruses while considering energy consumption.

The multi-dimensional challenges of controlling respiratory virus transmission in indoor spaces: Insights from the linkage of a microscopic pedestrian simulation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission model

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in indoor spaces, where most infection events occur, depends on the types and duration of human interactions, among others. Understanding how these human behaviours interface with virus characteristics to drive pathogen transmission and dictate the outcomes of non-pharmaceutical interventions is important for the informed and safe use of indoor spaces. To better understand these complex interactions, we developed the Pedestrian Dynamics-Virus Spread model (PeDViS), an individual-based model that combines pedestrian behaviour models with virus spread models incorporating direct and indirect transmission routes. We explored the relationships between virus exposure and the duration, distance, respiratory behaviour, and environment in which interactions between infected and uninfected individuals took place and compared this to benchmark 'at risk' interactions (1.5 metres for 15 minutes). When considering aerosol transmission, individuals adhering to distancing measures may be at risk due to the buildup of airborne virus in the environment when infected individuals spend prolonged time indoors. In our restaurant case, guests seated at tables near infected individuals were at limited risk of infection but could, particularly in poorly ventilated places, experience risks that surpass that of benchmark interactions. Combining interventions that target different transmission routes can aid in accumulating impact, for instance by combining ventilation with face masks. The impact of such combined interventions depends on the relative importance of transmission routes, which is hard to disentangle and highly context dependent. This uncertainty should be considered when assessing transmission risks upon different types of human interactions in indoor spaces. We illustrated the multi-dimensionality of indoor SARS-CoV-2 transmission that emerges from the interplay of human behaviour and the spread of respiratory viruses. A modelling strategy that incorporates this in risk assessments can help inform policy makers and citizens on the safe use of indoor spaces with varying inter-human interactions.

Path analysis of perceived disease vulnerability, COVID-19 fear, and lower vaccine hesitancy within the context of protection motivation theory

COVID-19 vaccinations have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing severe infections. However, vaccine hesitancy posed a major public health hurdle to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Online spread of vaccine conspiracy beliefs generated unwarranted mistrust and resistance to vaccines. While numerous studies have explored the factors influencing vaccine hesitancy, there remains a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the interplay between perceived disease vulnerability, COVID-19 fear, and vaccine hesitancy. Protection motivation theory posits citizens will evaluate perceived threats and take actions to mitigate potential harm. With a large U.S. sample, path analysis demonstrated individuals' perceived disease vulnerability was associated with lower vaccine hesitancy. Greater perceived disease vulnerability was associated with higher COVID-19 fear. Greater COVID-19 fear was associated with lower vaccine hesitancy. Greater vaccine conspiracy beliefs associated with higher vaccine hesitancy. However, in the presence of perceived vulnerability to disease, vaccine conspiracy beliefs associated with higher fear of COVID-19 and thereby lower vaccine hesitancy. We found under circumstances of higher perceived vulnerability to disease and fear of COVID-19, vaccine conspiratorial believers were less vaccine hesitant. We discuss how public health messaging can highlight personal risks to contracting COVID-19 to appeal to those who self-identify as disease prone, but may have reservations about vaccines because of misinformation. Successfully combating diseases entails reaching and gaining cooperation from misbelievers because misinformation is expected to continue in the digital age. By understand individual differences to vaccine hesitancy, it can help increase vaccinations and prevent severe illnesses in the post COVID-19 pandemic era.

Peak risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection within 5 s of face-to-face encounters: an observational/retrospective study

The link between aerosol dynamics and viral exposure risk is not fully understood, particularly during movement and face-to-face interactions. To investigate this, we employed Particle Trace Velocimetry with a laser sheet and a high-speed camera to measure microparticles from a human mannequin's mouth. The average peak time in the non-ventilated condition (expiratory volume, 30 L; passing speed, 5 km/h) was 1.33 s (standard deviation = 0.32 s), while that in the ventilated condition was 1.38 s (standard deviation = 0.35 s). Our results showed that the peak of viral exposure risk was within 5 s during face-to-face encounters under both ventilated and non-ventilated conditions. Moreover, the risk of viral exposure greatly decreased in ventilated conditions compared to non-ventilated conditions. Based on these findings, considering a risk mitigation strategy for the duration of 5 s during face-to-face encounters is expected to significantly reduce the risk of virus exposure in airborne transmission.

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on athletes, sports events, and mass gathering events: Review and recommendations

Since the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), which caused several respiratory diseases, was formally declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, it affected the lifestyle and health of athletes, both directly through cardiorespiratory and other health related effects, and indirectly as the pandemic has forced the suspension, postponement, or cancellation of most professional sporting events around the world. In this review, we explore the journey of athletes throughout the pandemic and during their return to their competitive routine. We also highlight potential pitfalls during the process and summarize the recommendations for the optimal return to sport participation. We further discuss the impact of the pandemic on the psychology of athletes, the variance between the team and individual athletes, and their ability to cope with the changes. Moreover, we specifically reviewed the pandemic impact on younger professional athletes in terms of mental and fitness health. Finally, we shaded light on the various impacts of mass gathering events and recommendations for managing upcoming events.

A coupled experimental and statistical approach for an assessment of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk at indoor event locations

Indoor event locations are particularly affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. At large venues, only incomplete risk assessments exist, whereby no suitable measures can be derived. In this study, a physical and data-driven statistical model for a comprehensive infection risk assessment has been developed. At venues displacement ventilation concepts are often implemented. Here simplified theoretical assumptions fail for the prediction of relevant airflows for airborne transmission processes. Thus, with locally resolving trace gas measurements infection risks are computed more detailed. Coupled with epidemiological data such as incidences, vaccination rates, test sensitivities, and audience characteristics such as masks and age distribution, predictions of new infections (mean), situational R-values (mean), and individual risks on- and off-seat can be achieved for the first time. Using the Stuttgart State Opera as an example, the functioning of the model and its plausibility are tested and a sensitivity analysis is performed with regard to masks and tests. Besides a reference scenario on 2022-11-29, a maximum safety scenario with an obligation of FFP2 masks and rapid antigen tests as well as a minimum safety scenario without masks and tests are investigated. For these scenarios the new infections (mean) are 10.6, 0.25 and 13.0, respectively. The situational R-values (mean) - number of new infections caused by a single infectious person in a certain situation - are 2.75, 0.32 and 3.39, respectively. Besides these results a clustered consideration divided by age, masks and whether infections occur on-seat or off-seat are presented. In conclusion this provides an instrument that can enable policymakers and operators to take appropriate measures to control pandemics despite ongoing mass gathering events.

Characterization of chemical transport in human skin and building material

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) are ubiquitous in indoor environment. They can emit from source into air, and subsequently penetrate human skin into blood through dermal uptake, causing adverse health effects. This study develops a two-layer analytical model to characterize the VOC/SVOC dermal uptake process, which is then extended to predict VOC emissions from two-layer building materials or furniture. Based on the model, the key transport parameters of chemicals in every skin or material layer are determined via a hybrid optimization method using data from experiments and literature. The measured key parameters of SVOCs for dermal uptake are more accurate than those from previous studies using empirical correlations. Moreover, the association between the absorption amount of studied chemicals into blood and age is preliminarily investigated. Further exposure analysis reveals that the contribution of dermal uptake to the total exposure can be comparable with that of inhalation for the examined SVOCs. This study makes the first attempt to accurately determine the key parameters of chemicals in skin, which is demonstrated to be critical for health risk assessment.

SARS-CoV-2 airborne infection probability estimated by using indoor carbon dioxide

Airborne transmission is one of the main routes of SARS-CoV-2 spread. It is important to determine the circumstances under which the risk of airborne transmission is increased as well as the effective strategy to reduce such risk. This study aimed to develop a modified version of the Wells-Riley model with indoor CO₂ to estimate the probability of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strains with a CO₂ monitor and to evaluate the validity of this model in actual clinical practices. We used the model in three suspected cases of airborne transmission presented to our hospital to confirm its validity. Next, we estimated the required indoor CO₂ concentration at which R₀ does not exceed 1 based on the model. The estimated R₀ (R₀, basic reproduction number) based on the model in each case were 3.19 in three out of five infected patients in an outpatient room, 2.00 in two out of three infected patients in the ward, and 0.191 in none of the five infected patients in another outpatient room. This indicated that our model can estimate R₀ with an acceptable accuracy. In a typical outpatient setting, the required indoor CO₂ concentration at which R₀ does not exceed 1 is below 620 ppm with no mask, 1000 ppm with a surgical mask and 16000 ppm with an N95 mask. In a typical inpatient setting, on the other hand, the required indoor CO₂ concentration is below 540 ppm with no mask, 770 ppm with a surgical mask, and 8200 ppm with an N95 mask. These findings facilitate the establishment of a strategy for preventing airborne transmission in hospitals. This study is unique in that it suggests the development of an airborne transmission model with indoor CO₂ and application of the model to actual clinical practice. Organizations and individuals can efficiently recognize the risk of SARS-CoV-2 airborne transmission in a room and thus take preventive measures such as maintaining good ventilation, wearing masks, or shortening the exposure time to an infected individual by simply using a CO₂ monitor.

Emerging data inputs for infectious diseases surveillance and decision making

Infectious diseases create a significant health and social burden globally and can lead to outbreaks and epidemics. Timely surveillance for infectious diseases is required to inform both short and long term public responses and health policies. Novel data inputs for infectious disease surveillance and public health decision making are emerging, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. These include the use of technology-enabled physiological measurements, crowd sourcing, field experiments, and artificial intelligence (AI). These technologies may provide benefits in relation to improved timeliness and reduced resource requirements in comparison to traditional methods. In this review paper, we describe current and emerging data inputs being used for infectious disease surveillance and summarize key benefits and limitations.

Reducing societal impacts of SARS-CoV-2 interventions through subnational implementation

To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have had less of a societal impact, but comparable epidemiological impact. Here, using the first COVID-19 wave in the Netherlands as a case in point, we address this issue by developing a high-resolution analysis framework that uses a demographically stratified population and a spatially explicit, dynamic, individual contact-pattern based epidemiology, calibrated to hospital admissions data and mobility trends extracted from mobile phone signals and Google. We demonstrate how a subnational approach could achieve similar level of epidemiological control in terms of hospital admissions, while some parts of the country could stay open for a longer period. Our framework is exportable to other countries and settings, and may be used to develop policies on subnational approach as a better strategic choice for controlling future epidemics.

Measurement and rapid assessment of indoor air quality at mass gathering events to assess ventilation performance and reduce aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2

To assess risk factors for COVID-19 transmission and address the closure of mass gathering events since March 2020, the UK Government ran the Events Research Programme (ERP), following which it reopened live events in sports, music, and culture in July 2021. We report the rapid post-occupancy evaluation of Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) and associated long-range airborne transmission risk conducted in the Environmental Study of the ERP. Ten large venues around the UK were monitored with CO2 sensors at a high spatial and temporal resolution during 90 events. An IAQ Index based on CO2 concentration was developed, and all monitored spaces were classified in bands from A to G based on their average and maximum CO2 concentrations from all events. High resolution monitoring and the IAQ Index depicted the overall state of ventilation at live events, and allowed identification of issues with ventilation effectiveness and distribution, and of spaces with poor ventilation and the settings in which long-range airborne transmission risk may be increased. In numerous settings, CO2 concentrations were found to follow patterns relating to event management and specific occupancy of spaces around the venues. Good ventilation was observed in 90% of spaces monitored for given occupancies. Practical applications: High-resolution monitoring of indoor CO2 concentrations is necessary to detect the spatial variation of indoor air quality (IAQ) in large mass gathering event venues. The paper summarises COVID-19 ventilation guidance for buildings and defines a methodology for measurement and rapid assessment of IAQ during occupancy at live events that can be implemented by venue managers. Comparisons of the CO2 concentrations measured during the events identified the spaces at high risk of long-range transmission of airborne pathogens. Building operators should be mindful of the ventilation strategies used relative to the total occupancy in different spaces and the occupant's activities.

Case study of the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games: Implications for global mass gathering events amidst the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate the public health countermeasures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that are important for organizing mass gathering events (MGEs) during a pandemic and to identify the practices suitable for application at future MGEs.

Methods

This study analyzed data from the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games. The aforementioned analysis was conducted from the viewpoints of overseas stakeholders and Chinese residents. The comprehensive set of countermeasures established to prevent the transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic comprised the bubble strategy, the three-layer testing strategy (pre-departure testing, testing at the airport, and daily screening), the mandatory wearing of N95 masks, and mandatory vaccination.

Findings

A total of 437 positive cases within the bubble were reported during the Games, of which 60.6% were detected through screening at the airport and 39.4% were detected through routine screening. Nearly, 92.0% of the positive cases were detected within 7 days of arrival in China, and 80.8% of the cases had already been identified before the Opening Ceremony of the Games. Outside the bubble, no Games stakeholders were infected and no spectator contracted COVID-19. The bubble strategy, the three-layer testing strategy, the mandatory wearing of N95 masks, and mandatory vaccination are promising countermeasures to prevent the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during MGEs.

Conclusion

Public health countermeasures introduced during the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games were proven to be useful. The success in delivering and organizing the Games instills confidence and leaves a public health legacy for future MGEs amid the pandemic of COVID-19 or future emerging infectious diseases.

The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong

Mass gatherings provide conditions for the transmission of infectious diseases and pose complex challenges to public health. Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and health experts called for suspension of gatherings in order to reduce social contact via which virus is transmitted. However, few studies have investigated the contribution of mass gatherings to COVID-19 transmission in local communities. In Hong Kong, the coincidence of the relaxation of group gathering restrictions with demonstrations against the National Security Law in mid-2020 raised concerns about the safety of mass gatherings under the pandemic. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and evaluates the importance of social distancing policies. With an aggregated dataset of epidemiological, city-level meteorological and socioeconomic data, a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is used for constructing a 'synthetic Hong Kong' from over 200 Chinese cities. This counterfactual control unit is used to simulate COVID-19 infection patterns (i.e., the number of total cases and daily new cases) in the absence of mass gatherings. Comparing the hypothetical trends and the actual ones, our results indicate that the infection rate observed in Hong Kong is substantially higher than that in the counterfactual control unit (2.63% vs. 0.07%). As estimated, mass gatherings increased the number of new infections by 62 cases (or 87.58% of total new cases) over the 10-day period and by 737 cases (or 97.23%) over the 30-day period. These findings suggest the necessity of tightening social distancing policies, especially the prohibition on group gathering regulation (POGGR), to prevent and control COVID-19 outbreaks.

A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism

Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differences in contagion rates due to the urban socio-political measures, while fine-grained geographic urban spreading pattern still remains an open issue. Here, we fill this gap by leveraging the trajectory data of 197,808 smartphone users (including 17,808 anonymous confirmed cases) in nine cities in China. We find a general spreading pattern in all cities: the spatial distribution of confirmed cases follows a power-law-like model and the spreading centroid human mobility is time-invariant. Moreover, we reveal that long average traveling distance results in a high growth rate of spreading radius and wide spatial diffusion of confirmed cases in the fine-grained geographic model. With such insight, we adopt the Kendall model to simulate the urban spreading of COVID-19 which can well fit the real spreading process. Our results unveil the underlying mechanism behind the spatial-temporal urban evolution of COVID-19, and can be used to evaluate the performance of mobility restriction policies implemented by many governments and to estimate the evolving spreading situation of COVID-19.

Assessment of COVID-19 preparedness response plan on higher education students simulation of WHO intra-action review in Egypt

Because of the COVID-19 outbreak, Mass gathering restrictions were imposed. The lockdown of the Higher Education Institutions was obligatory to save lives. In February 2021 in Egypt, HEIs were allowed to ease the lockdown restrictions on a case-by-case basis gradually. In this paper, we propose a risk evaluation of planned regular mass gathering events during the pandemic, such as students gathering on-campus during indoor exams, by implementing WHO COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan through Intra-Action Review guidance. This one-group posttest-only design study was done on October 6 University campus during indoor students' exams in Giza, Egypt. We conducted IAR to implement the WHO's COVID- 19 SPRP; Country-level coordination; risk communication; surveillance, rapid response teams; points of entry; infection prevention control; laboratories; supply chain; case management; essential health services, and other possible topics. Between February-21, 2021; April-10, 2021, 25,927 students attended the on-campus living exams. Our result suggests that the high level of Readiness-Capacity during mass gatherings will reduce COVID-19 transmission. The most compelling evidence is the significance of synchronization between the ten pillars in preventing COVID-19 transmission. These findings may be used to influence decision-making for continual improvement of the operational planning guidelines during the outbreaks.

Emulation of epidemics via Bluetooth-based virtual safe virus spread: Experimental setup, software, and data

We describe an experimental setup and a currently running experiment for evaluating how physical interactions over time and between individuals affect the spread of epidemics. Our experiment involves the voluntary use of the Safe Blues Android app by participants at The University of Auckland (UoA) City Campus in New Zealand. The app spreads multiple virtual safe virus strands via Bluetooth depending on the physical proximity of the subjects. The evolution of the virtual epidemics is recorded as they spread through the population. The data is presented as a real-time (and historical) dashboard. A simulation model is applied to calibrate strand parameters. Participants' locations are not recorded, but participants are rewarded based on the duration of participation within a geofenced area, and aggregate participation numbers serve as part of the data. The 2021 experimental data is available as an open-source anonymized dataset, and once the experiment is complete, the remaining data will be made available. This paper outlines the experimental setup, software, subject-recruitment practices, ethical considerations, and dataset description. The paper also highlights current experimental results in view of the lockdown that started in New Zealand at 23:59 on August 17, 2021. The experiment was initially planned in the New Zealand environment, expected to be free of COVID and lockdowns after 2020. However, a COVID Delta strain lockdown shuffled the cards and the experiment is currently extended into 2022.

Modeling vaccination and control strategies for outbreaks of monkeypox at gatherings

Background

The monkeypox outbreak in non-endemic countries in recent months has led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). It is thought that festivals, parties, and other gatherings may have contributed to the outbreak.

Methods

We considered a hypothetical metropolitan city and modeled the transmission of the monkeypox virus in humans in a high-risk group (HRG) and a low-risk group (LRG) using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and incorporated gathering events. Model simulations assessed how the vaccination strategies combined with other public health measures can contribute to mitigating or halting outbreaks from mass gathering events.

Results

The risk of a monkeypox outbreak was high when mass gathering events occurred in the absence of public health control measures. However, the outbreaks were controlled by isolating cases and vaccinating their close contacts. Furthermore, contact tracing, vaccinating, and isolating close contacts, if they can be implemented, were more effective for the containment of monkeypox transmission during summer gatherings than a broad vaccination campaign among HRG, when accounting for the low vaccination coverage in the overall population, and the time needed for the development of the immune responses. Reducing the number of attendees and effective contacts during the gathering could also prevent a burgeoning outbreak, as could restricting attendance through vaccination requirements.

Conclusion

Monkeypox outbreaks following mass gatherings can be made less likely with some restrictions on either the number and density of attendees in the gathering or vaccination requirements. The ring vaccination strategy inoculating close contacts of confirmed cases may not be enough to prevent potential outbreaks; however, mass gatherings can be rendered less risky if that strategy is combined with public health measures, including identifying and isolating cases and contact tracing. Compliance with the community and promotion of awareness are also indispensable to containing the outbreak.

Participatory disease surveillance for a mass gathering — a prospective cohort study on COVID-19, Germany 2021

Background

Mass gatherings (MGs) such as music festivals and sports events have been associated with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. On-site research can foster knowledge of risk factors for infections and improve risk assessments and precautionary measures at future MGs. We tested a web-based participatory disease surveillance tool to detect COVID-19 infections at and after an outdoor MG by collecting self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and tests.

Methods

We conducted a digital prospective observational cohort study among fully immunized attendees of a sports festival that took place from September 2 to 5, 2021 in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany. Participants used our study app to report demographic data, COVID-19 tests, symptoms, and their contact behavior. This self-reported data was used to define probable and confirmed COVID-19 cases for the full “study period” (08/12/2021 – 10/31/2021) and within the 14-day “surveillance period” during and after the MG, with the highest likelihood of an MG-related COVID-19 outbreak (09/04/2021 – 09/17/2021).

Results

A total of 2,808 of 9,242 (30.4%) event attendees participated in the study. Within the study period, 776 individual symptoms and 5,255 COVID-19 tests were reported. During the 14-day surveillance period around and after the MG, seven probable and seven PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases were detected. The confirmed cases translated to an estimated seven-day incidence of 125 per 100,000 participants (95% CI [67.7/100,000, 223/100,000]), which was comparable to the average age-matched incidence in Germany during this time. Overall, weekly numbers of COVID-19 cases were fluctuating over the study period, with another increase at the end of the study period.

Conclusion

COVID-19 cases attributable to the mass gathering were comparable to the Germany-wide age-matched incidence, implicating that our active participatory disease surveillance tool was able to detect MG-related infections. Further studies are needed to evaluate and apply our participatory disease surveillance tool in other mass gathering settings.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14505-x.

LDA-based topic modeling for COVID-19-related sports research trends

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic could generate a turning point for introducing a new system for sports participation and business. The purpose of this study is to explore trends and topic structures of COVID-19-related sports research by analyzing the relevant literature.

Methods

Sports studies related to COVID-19 were collected in searching international academic databases. After the pre-processing step using the refinement and morpheme analysis function of the Net Miner program, topic modeling and social network analysis were used to analyze Journal Citation Reports found using the search term 'COVID-19 sports'.

Results

As a result, this study used subject modeling to reveal important potential topics in COVID-19-related sports research articles. 'Sports participation', 'elite players', and 'sports industry' were macroscopically classified, and detailed research topics could be identified from each division.

Conclusion

This study revealed important latent topics from COVID-19-related sports research articles using topic modeling. The results of the research elucidate the structure of academic knowledge on this topic and provide guidance for future research.

Mitigation of COVID-19 at the 2021 National Collegiate Athletic Association Men’s Basketball Tournament

Background

Data are lacking regarding the risk of viral SARS-CoV-2 transmission during a large indoor sporting event involving fans utilizing a controlled environment. We sought to describe case characteristics, mitigation protocols used, variants detected, and secondary infections detected during the 2021 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Men’s Basketball Tournament involving collegiate athletes from across the U.S.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study used data collected from March 16 to April 3, 2021, as part of a closed environment which required daily reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, social distancing, universal masking, and limited contact between tiers of participants. Nearly 3000 players, staff, and vendors participated in indoor, unmasked activities that involved direct exposure between cases and noninfected individuals. The main outcome of interest was transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus, as measured by the number of new infections and variant(s) detected among positive cases. Secondary infections were identified through contact tracing by public health officials.

Results

Out of 2660 participants, 15 individuals (0.56%) screened positive for SARS-CoV-2. Four cases involved players or officials, and all cases were detected before any individual played in or officiated a game. Secondary transmissions all occurred outside the controlled environment. Among those disqualified from the tournament (4 cases; 26.7%), all individuals tested positive for the Iota variant (B.1.526). All other cases involved the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7). Nearly all teams (N = 58; 85.3%) reported that some individuals had received at least one dose of a vaccine. Overall, 17.9% of participants either had at least one dose of the vaccine or possessed documented infection within 90 days of the tournament.

Conclusion

In this retrospective cohort study of the 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament closed environment, only a few cases were detected, and they were discovered in advance of potential exposure. These findings support the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines for large indoor sporting events during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during indoor clubbing events: A clustered randomized, controlled, multicentre trial protocol

Introduction

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic led to the implementation of several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), from closings of bars and restaurants to curfews and lockdowns. Vaccination campaigns started hoping it could efficiently alleviate NPI. The primary objective of the "Indoor Transmission of COVID-19" (ITOC) study is to determine among a fully vaccinated population the relative risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during one indoor clubbing event. Secondary objectives are to assess the transmission of other respiratory viruses, risk exposure, and attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination, health pass, and psychological impact of indoor club closing.

Methods and analysis

Four thousand four hundred healthy volunteers aged 18-49 years and fully vaccinated will be included in Paris region. The intervention is an 8-hour indoor clubbing event with no masks, no social distance, maximum room capacity, and ventilation. A reservation group of up to 10 people will recruit participants, who will be randomized 1:1 to either the experimental group (2,200 volunteers in two venues with capacities of 1,000 people each) or the control group (2,200 volunteers asked not to go to the club). All participants will provide a salivary sample on the day of the experiment and 7 days later. They also will answer several questionnaires. Virological analyses include polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of salivary samples and air of the venue, investigating SARS-CoV-2 and 18 respiratory viruses.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethical clearance was first obtained in France from the institutional review board (Comité de Protection des Personnes Ile de France VII - CPP), and the trial received clearance from the French National Agency for Medicines and Health Products (Agence National de Sécurité du Médicament - ANSM). The trial is supported and approved by The Agence Nationale Recherche sur le SIDA, les hépatites et maladies émergences (ANRS-MIE). Positive, negative, and inconclusive results will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

Trial registration number

IDR-CB 2021-A01473-38. Clinicaltrial.gov, identifier: NCT05311865.

Transmission Potential of Human Monkeypox in Mass Gatherings

Since May 2022, a large number of monkeypox cases have been reported in Europe, the United States, and other nonendemic settings. Taking into account the strict measures implemented due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the desire of people to reclaim what is perceived as lost time, mass gatherings this summer were highly attended. Based on data for the secondary attack rate among unvaccinated contacts from endemic countries, we estimate that, on average, >1 secondary case is anticipated per infectious person if he/she has a high number of group contacts (>30) or >8 close contacts. Although the role of group contacts in mass gatherings is uncertain (less likely to involve physical contact, shorter duration), close contacts associated with the event (eg, intimate/sexual contact with other attendees) might be the amplifying event. Enforcing awareness, early recognition, and engaging affected populations in the monkeypox response are important to control transmission.

Direct modelling from GPS data reveals daily-activity-dependency of effective reproduction number in COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced difficulties in implementing mobility restriction measures, as no clear quantitative relationship between human mobility and infection spread in large cities is known. We developed a model that enables quantitative estimations of the infection risk for individual places and activities by using smartphone GPS data for the Tokyo metropolitan area. The effective reproduction number is directly calculated from the number of infectious social contacts defined by the square of the population density at each location. The difference in the infection rate of daily activities is considered, where the 'stay-out' activity, staying at someplace neither home nor workplace, is more than 28 times larger than other activities. Also, the contribution to the infection strongly depends on location. We imply that the effective reproduction number is sufficiently suppressed if the highest-risk locations or activities are restricted. We also discuss the effects of the Delta variant and vaccination.

Ventilation reconstruction in bathrooms for restraining hazardous plume: Mitigate COVID-19 and beyond

Converging evidence reports that the probability of vertical transmission patterns via shared drainage systems, may be responsible for the huge contactless community outbreak in high-rise buildings. Publications indicate that a faulty bathroom exhaust fan system is ineffective in removing lifted hazardous virus-laden aerosols from the toilet bowl space. Common strategies (boosting ventilation capability and applying disinfection tablets) seem unsustainable and remain to date untested. Using combined simulation and experimental approaches, we compared three ventilation schemes in a family bathroom including the traditional ceiling fan, floor fan, and side-wall fan. We found that the traditional ceiling fan was barely functional whereby aerosol particles were not being adequately removed. Conversely, a side-wall fan could function efficiently and an enhanced ventilation capability can have increased performance whereby nearly 80.9% of the lifted aerosol particles were removed. There exists a common, and easily-overlooked mistake in the layout of the bathroom, exposing occupants to a contactless vertical pathogen aerosol transmission route. Corrections and dissemination are thus imperative for the reconstruction of these types of family bathrooms. Our findings provide evidence for the bathroom and smart ventilation system upgrade, promoting indoor public health and human hygiene.

Complexity emerges in measures of the marking dynamics in football games

In this article, we study the dynamics of marking in football matches. To do this, we survey and analyze a database containing the trajectories of players from both teams on the field of play during three professional games. We describe the dynamics through the construction of temporal bipartite networks of proximity. Based on the introduced concept of proximity, the nodes are the players, and the links are defined between opponents that are close enough to each other at a given moment. By studying the evolution of the heterogeneity parameter of the networks during the game, we characterize a scaling law for the average shape of the fluctuations, unveiling the emergence of complexity in the system. Moreover, we propose a simple model to simulate the players' motion in the field from where we obtained the evolution of a synthetic proximity network. We show that the model captures with a remarkable agreement the complexity of the empirical case, hence it proves to be helpful to elucidate the underlying mechanisms responsible for the observed phenomena.

COVID-19 Positivity Following an In-Person Surgical Society Meeting: A Cross-Sectional Survey Study

INTRODUCTION

Many surgical societies have recently resumed in-person meetings after canceling or adopting virtual formats during the COVID-19 pandemic. These meetings implemented safety measures to limit viral exposure and ensure participant safety. While there have been anecdotal reports of COVID-19 cases after attendance, no large-scale assessments have been undertaken. The objective of this study was to evaluate COVID-19 positivity following an in-person surgical society meeting.

METHODS

An online survey was administered to participants of the Society for Asian Academic Surgeons annual meeting, which was held in Chicago, Illinois in September 2021. This survey assessed vaccination status, in-person versus virtual conference attendance, and COVID-19 testing and symptoms in the 7 d immediately following the meeting.

RESULTS

Among the 220 meeting participants, 173 attended in person (79%). There were 91 survey respondents (41% response rate): 67% attending physicians, 27% trainees, and 6% medical students. Nearly, all (99%) reported being fully vaccinated against COVID-19. COVID-19 testing was sought within 7 d of the meeting by 15% of in-person respondents, and all reported negative results. Among individuals who were not tested, no one reported development of symptoms (cough, shortness of breath, fever, new loss of taste/smell, etc.).

CONCLUSIONS

Among in-person attendees of a recent surgical society meeting, no one reported positive COVID-19 testing after the meeting, and individuals who were not tested denied developing symptoms. While these results are encouraging, societies hosting meetings should continue to proactively assess the safety of in-person meetings to promptly identify outbreaks and opportunities for improvement.

Impact of ventilation and avoidance measures on SARS-CoV-2 risk of infection in public indoor environments

BACKGROUND

The literature includes many studies which individually assess the efficacy of protective measures against the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study considers the high infection risk in public buildings and models the quality of the indoor environment, related safety measures, and their efficacy in preventing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

METHODS

Simulations are created that consider protective factors such as hand hygiene, face covering and engagement with Covid-19 vaccination programs in reducing the risk of infection in a university foyer. Furthermore, a computational fluid dynamics model is developed to simulate and analyse the university foyer under three ventilation regimes. The probability of transmission was measured across different scenarios.

FINDINGS

Estimates suggest that the Delta variant requires the air change rate to be increased >1000 times compared to the original strain, which is practically not feasible. Consequently, appropriate hygiene practices, such as wearing masks, are essential to reducing secondary infections. A comparison of different protective factors in simulations found the overall burden of infections resulting from indoor contact depends on (i) face mask adherence, (ii) quality of the ventilation system, and (iii) other hygiene practices.

INTERPRETATION

Relying on ventilation, whether natural, mechanical, or mixed, is not sufficient alone to mitigate the risk of aerosol infections. This is due to the internal configuration of the indoor space in terms of (i) size and number of windows, their location and opening frequency, as well as the position of the air extraction and supply inlets, which often induce hotspots with stagnating air, (ii) the excessive required air change rate. Hence, strict reliance on proper hygiene practices, namely adherence to face coverings and hand sanitising, are essential. Consequently, face mask adherence should be emphasized and promoted by policymakers for public health applications. Similar research may need to be conducted using a similar approach on the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant.

Multi-person movement-induced airflow and the effects on virus-laden expiratory droplet dispersion in indoor environments

The multi-person movement might cause complex induced airflow and affect the virus-laden expiratory droplet transmission in indoor environments. Using the dynamic mesh model in computational fluid dynamics, the multi-person movement with different personnel location distributions was realized. The induced airflow patterns, virus-laden droplet dispersion, and concentration distribution were investigated in detail. The results show that multi-person movement might intensify inter-regional convection, which has been rarely found in single-person movement conditions. Side-by-side distribution and ladder distribution of moving persons could cause a connected low-pressure area behind the moving persons, which might enhance lateral virus transport, especially where droplets might suspend at the height of the breathing zone. Not only 1-10 μm aerosols but also some 20-50 μm droplets are carried by the multi-person movement-induced airflow to over 3 m. Since the width of induced airflow is about 0.6-1.0 m, moving persons should keep enough horizontal distance (>1.0 m) to limit the air mixing and virus-laden droplet transmission. This paper could provide a detailed reference for the numerical study of multi-person movement-induced airflow patterns, droplet dispersion, and indoor infection control.

Incidence and characteristics of COVID-19 in French professional football players during the 2020–2021 season

Objectives

To describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in French professional football players, and to compare the infection incidence with the general population across the first three waves.

Methods

During the 2020–2021 season, all professional football players (n = 1217) in the two primary French leagues underwent weekly testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection by nasopharyngeal PCR, in combination with rigorous infection control measures.

Results

Among all players, 572 (47%) tested positive at least once, with no COVID-19-related death or hospital admission. Monthly incidence estimates in players ranged from 1486 to 6731 per 100,000 individuals, i.e. 2–17 times higher than incidence estimates in the general population in France during the study period.

Conclusion

Almost 50% of professional football players developed SARS-CoV-2 infection during the 2020–2021 season in France, with no severe complication.

A post-occupancy study of ventilation effectiveness from high-resolution CO2 monitoring at live theatre events to mitigate airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Mass-gathering events were closed around the world in 2020 to minimise the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Emerging research on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 emphasised the importance of sufficient ventilation. This paper presents the results of an indoor air quality (IAQ) monitoring study over 82 events in seven mechanically ventilated auditoria to support the UK government Events Research Programme. Indoor carbon dioxide concentration was measured at high resolution before, during, and after occupancy to allow for assessment of the ventilation systems. Generally, good indoor air quality was measured in all auditoria, with average IAQ found to be excellent or very good for 70% of spaces. In some auditoria, spatial variation in IAQ was identified, indicating poor mixing of the air. In addition, surface and air samples were taken and analysed for the presence of bacteria by culture and SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR in one venue. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected on a small number of surfaces at very low copy numbers, which are unlikely to pose an infection risk. Under the ventilation strategies and occupancy levels investigated, it is likely that most theatres pose a low risk of long-range transmission of COVID-19.

COVID-19 in European Soccer: A Public 2-Year Comparison of COVID-19 Case Management and Case Characteristics between the 1st Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and the Premier League

To evaluate the extent and characteristics of COVID-19 cases in relation to environmental COVID-19 incidences in the four best European soccer leagues (Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A and La Liga) from the first of January 2020 until the end of January 2022. Methods: A retrospective evaluation of all publicly available COVID-19 cases in the studied cohorts was performed. The 14-day case incidences from epidemiological national data were used as reference values. The leagues studied are the Bundesliga (Germany), Premier League (Great Britain), Serie A (Italy) and La Liga (Spain). For all cases, the duration of time loss and date of case notification were recorded. Results: League-specific mean time loss due to disease or quarantine per COVID-19 case differs significantly between La Liga (11.45; ±5.21 days) and the other leagues studied (Bundesliga 20.41; ±33.87; p 0.0242; Premier League 17.12; ±10.39; p 0.0001; Serie A 17.61; ±12.71; p < 0.0001). A positive correlation between 14-day national incidence with COVID-19 disease occurrence in soccer leagues was found for all leagues studied. The correlations were strong in the Bundesliga (r 0.5911; CI 0.4249−0.7187; p < 0.0001), Serie A (r 0.5979; CI 0.4336−0.7238; p < 0.0001) and La Liga (r 0.5251; CI 0.3432−0.6690; p < 0.0001). A moderate correlation was found for the Premier League (r 0.3308; CI 0.1147−0.5169; p 0.0026). Odds ratios for altered environmental case risk in the cohorts studied could be calculated for four different national COVID-19 incidence levels (<50/100.000 to >500/100.000). A trend towards shorter COVID-19 case duration in the second half of 2021 was shown for all leagues studied. Conclusions: There was a significantly lower mean time-loss caused by a COVID-19 infection for cases occurred in La Liga compared with the other three leagues studied. For all four leagues studied, a positive, significant correlation of national environmental COVID-19 incidence level and the incidence of COVID-19 cases in the cohort of a football league was found.

Association of compliance with COVID-19 public health measures with depression

Although previous studies have demonstrated increased depression related to COVID-19, the reasons for this are not well-understood. We investigated the association of compliance with COVID-19 public health measures with depression. Data from the 2020 Korea Community Health Survey were analyzed. The main independent variable was compliance with rules based on three performance variables (social distancing, wearing a mask in indoor facilities, and outdoors). Depression was assessed using Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scores. Of 195,243 participants, 5,101 participants had depression. Bad and moderate performance scores for compliance were associated with depression (Bad score, men: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29-3.87; women: aOR = 2.42, 95% CI = 1.42-4.13; moderate score, men: aOR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.02-1.68; women: aOR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.07-1.53). In the subgroup analysis, among the quarantine rules, not wearing a mask indoors was the most prominently associated with depression. In participants with a high level of education, non-compliance with quarantine rules was significantly associated with depression. People who do not comply with public health measures are more likely to be depressed. The preparation and observance of scientific quarantine rules can help mental health in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and another infectious disease pandemic that may come.

Mass gathering events and the spread of infectious diseases: Evidence from the early growth phase of COVID-19

This paper studies the impact on reported coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths in Spain resulting from large mass gatherings that occurred from March 6 to March 8, 2020. To study these outcomes, the geographic differences in the planned pre-pandemic major events that took place on these dates were exploited, which is a quasi-random source of variation for identification purposes. We collected daily and detailed information about the number of attendees at football (soccer) and basketball matches in addition to individuals participating in the Women's Day marches across Spain, which we merged with daily data on reported COVID-19 cases and deaths at the provincial level. Our results reveal evidence of non-negligible COVID-19 cases related to the differences in the percentage of attendees at these major events from March 6 to March 8. In a typical province, approximately 31% of the average daily reported COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants between mid-March and early April 2020 can be explained by the participation rate in those major events. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that this implies almost five million euros (169,000 euros/day) of additional economic cost in the health system of a typical province with one million inhabitants in the period under consideration. Several mechanisms behind the spread of COVID-19 are also examined.

Safety Evaluation of a Medical Congress Held During the COVID-19 Pandemic-A Prospective Cohort

Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, few scientific congresses have been held on-site. We prospectively evaluated the safety concept of the congress of the Swiss Societies of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Hygiene. Methods: The congress was held in Geneva (Switzerland) while local COVID-19 incidence (with SARS-CoV-2 wild type circulating) was 65/100,000 population (September 2020). A rigorous safety concept was implemented. Congress attendees filled out a questionnaire to assess risk perception, exposures, symptoms and diagnoses of SARS-CoV-2 before, during and after the congress. Dried blood spots were taken on-site and 4 weeks later to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversions. Results: Of 365 congress attendees, 196 (54%) either answered the questionnaire (N = 150) or provided baseline and follow-up blood samples (N = 168). None of the participants reported a positive PCR in the 2 weeks after the congress. Five of 168 (3%) participants were seropositive at follow-up, all of which had already been positive at baseline. Conclusion: Findings indicate that congresses with a rigorous safety concept may take place, even in areas with moderately-high COVID-19 activity. Whether this holds true in vaccinated populations and with more transmissible viral variants circulating remains unclear.

The effects of super spreading events and movement control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia

This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The effective reproduction number, Rt, was estimated by adopting and modifying an Rt estimation algorithm using a validated distribution mean of 3.96 and standard deviation of 4.75 with a seven-day sliding window. The Rt values generated were validated using thea moving window SEIR model with a negative binomial likelihood fitted using methods from the Bayesian inferential framework. A Pearson’s correlation between the Rt values estimated by the algorithm and the SEIR model was r = 0.70, p < 0.001 and r = 0.81, p < 0.001 during the validation period The Rt increased to reach the highest values at 3.40 (95% CI 1.47, 6.14) and 1.72 (95% CI 1.54, 1.90) due to the Sri Petaling and Sabah electoral process during the second and third waves of COVID-19 respectively. The MCOs was able to reduce the Rt values by 63.2 to 77.1% and 37.0 to 47.0% during the second and third waves of COVID-19, respectively. Mass gathering events were one of the important drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. However, COVID-19 transmission can be fuelled by noncompliance to Standard Operating Procedure, population mobility, ventilation and environmental factors.

COVID-19 and other respiratory tract infections at mass gathering religious and sporting events

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Mass gathering (MG) religious events provide ideal conditions for transmission and globalization of respiratory tract infections (RTIs). We review recent literature on COVID-19 and other RTIs at recurring international annual MG religious and sporting events.

RECENT FINDINGS

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic organizers of MG religious and sporting events introduced risk-based infection control measures that limited transmission of RTIs. The 2020 and 2021 Hajj were conducted with limited numbers of pilgrims compared to the annual millions of pilgrims. The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games were cancelled and held in 2021. The success of the COVID-19 countermeasures at the 2021 Hajj and 2021 Tokyo Olympics was based on implementing good public health and social measures alongside a comprehensive testing strategy.

SUMMARY

MG events are associated with transmission of a range of bacterial and viral RTIs. Introducing risk based a multitude of public health interventions can reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other RTIs.

Predicting COVID-19 Transmission to Inform the Management of Mass Events: Model-Based Approach

BACKGROUND

Modelling COVID-19 transmission at live events and public gatherings is essential to controlling the probability of subsequent outbreaks and communicating to participants their personalized risk. Yet, despite the fast-growing body of literature on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, current risk models either neglect contextual information including vaccination rates or disease prevalence or do not attempt to quantitatively model transmission.

OBJECTIVE

This paper attempted to bridge this gap by providing informative risk metrics for live public events, along with a measure of their uncertainty.

METHODS

Building upon existing models, our approach ties together 3 main components: (1) reliable modelling of the number of infectious cases at the time of the event, (2) evaluation of the efficiency of pre-event screening, and (3) modelling of the event's transmission dynamics and their uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulations.

RESULTS

We illustrated the application of our pipeline for a concert at the Royal Albert Hall and highlighted the risk's dependency on factors such as prevalence, mask wearing, and event duration. We demonstrate how this event held on 3 different dates (August 20, 2020; January 20, 2021; and March 20, 2021) would likely lead to transmission events that are similar to community transmission rates (0.06 vs 0.07, 2.38 vs 2.39, and 0.67 vs 0.60, respectively). However, differences between event and background transmissions substantially widened in the upper tails of the distribution of the number of infections (as denoted by their respective 99th quantiles: 1 vs 1, 19 vs 8, and 6 vs 3, respectively, for our 3 dates), further demonstrating that sole reliance on vaccination and antigen testing to gain entry would likely significantly underestimate the tail risk of the event.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the unknowns surrounding COVID-19 transmission, our estimation pipeline opens the discussion on contextualized risk assessment by combining the best tools at hand to assess the order of magnitude of the risk. Our model can be applied to any future event and is presented in a user-friendly RShiny interface. Finally, we discussed our model's limitations as well as avenues for model evaluation and improvement.

Model-based assessment of the risks of viral transmission in non-confined crowds

This work assesses the risks of Covid-19 spread in diverse daily-life situations involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global number of new infections from patchy observations, by coupling ad hoc spatial models for disease transmission via respiratory droplets to detailed field-data about pedestrian trajectories and head orientations. This allows us to rank the investigated situations by the infection risks that they present; importantly, the obtained hierarchy of risks is very largely conserved across transmission models: Street cafés present the largest average rate of new infections caused by an attendant, followed by busy outdoor markets, and then metro and train stations, whereas the risks incurred while walking on fairly busy streets are comparatively quite low. While our models only approximate the actual transmission risks, their converging predictions lend credence to these findings. In situations with a moving crowd, density is the main factor influencing the estimated infection rate. Finally, our study explores the efficiency of street and venue redesigns in mitigating the viral spread: While the benefits of enforcing one-way foot traffic in (wide) walkways are unclear, changing the geometry of queues substantially affects disease transmission risks.

Decision analysis support for evaluating transmission risk of COVID-19 in places where people gather

Background

The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has presented an unprecedented public health challenge. Prior to vaccination, non-pharmaceutical interventions, including closures, were necessary to help control the epidemic. With the arrival of variants of concern and insufficient population vaccination coverage, ongoing evaluation of transmission risk in settings and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions are necessary to help control the epidemic. This study aimed to produce a framework for evaluating transmission risk in settings where individuals gather and inform decision-making.

Methods

A multi-criteria decision analysis process was used to structure the framework. Fifteen criteria were identified as important to consider for COVID-19 transmission risk based on the literature. This list was ranked by experts and then categorized. The analysis was structured by the consensus list of criteria and relative positioning of each criteria within the list to produce sets of factors to consider when assessing transmission risk at gatherings.

Results

Fifteen experts from across Canada participated in ranking the criteria. Strong consensus was found on the relative importance of criteria and this relative consensus was used to create four categories: critical (3 criteria); important (6 criteria); good to consider (5 criteria); and if time permits (1 criterion).

Conclusion

The resulting consensus list and categories constitutes a set of important elements that can be applied to any setting as an objective and transparent framework to assess transmission risk in the venue. In conjunction with further consideration of the local epidemiology of COVID-19, an overall risk of transmission assessment can be established and uniformly implemented.