An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Climate change and variability drive increasing exposure of marine heatwaves across US estuaries

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are among the greatest threats to marine ecosystems, and while substantial advances have been made in oceanic MHWs, little is known about estuarine MHWs. Utilizing a temperature dataset spanning over two decades and 54 stations distributed across 20 estuaries in the United States National Estuarine Research Reserve System, we present a comprehensive analysis of estuarine MHW characteristics and trends. Long-term climate-change-driven warming is driving more frequent MHWs along the East Coast, and if trends continue, this region will be in a MHW state for ~ 1/3 of the year by the end of the century. In contrast, the vast majority of the West Coast showed no trends, highlighting the potential for future thermal refugia. The West Coast was more strongly influenced by climate variability through the enhancement/suppression of MHWs during different phases of climate modes, suggesting long-term predictability potential. These results can provide guidance for management actions and planning in these critical environments.

Heatwaves increase the polystyrene nanoplastic-induced toxicity to marine diatoms through interfacial interaction regulation

Marine heatwaves, prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, have increased worldwide in recent decades. Plastic pollution is widespread in the ocean, and the continuous weathering of plastics leads to a substantial release of nanoplastics (NPs). However, the interactive impacts and in-depth mechanisms of heatwaves and NPs on diatoms are largely unknown. Here, we show that a heatwave intensity of 4 °C amplified the toxicity of polystyrene NPs to the globally important diatom Chaetoceros gracilis (C. gracilis), with reductions of 5.62 % and 9.46 % in growth rate and photosynthesis, respectively. Notably, NPs significantly inhibited the cell-specific C assimilation rate by 18.28 % under heatwave conditions. The enhanced NP-induced toxicity to C. gracilis was attributed to decreased mechanical strength and increased NP adsorption under heatwave conditions, which increased membrane damage and oxidative stress. Transcriptomic analysis demonstrated that NPs disturbed redox homeostasis and caused mechanical stress to C. gracilis under heatwave conditions. Moreover, NP treatment downregulated genes (psbA and rbcL) encoding photosynthesis core proteins and the pivotal carbon-fixing enzyme RubisCo under heatwave conditions, resulting in decreased growth and C fixation rates. These findings demonstrate that heatwaves render C. gracilis susceptible to NPs and emphasize the reduced primary productivity caused by NPs under global warming.

Modeling the role of temperature-dependent microbiome composition in black band disease transmission among coral reefs

Black band disease (BBD) is one of the most prevalent diseases causing significant destruction of coral reefs. Coral reefs acquire this deadly disease from bacteria in the microbiome community, the composition of which is highly affected by the environmental temperature. While previous studies have provided valuable insights into various aspects of BBD, the temperature-dependent microbiome composition has not been considered in existing BBD models. We developed a transmission dynamics model, incorporating the effects of temperature on the microbiome composition and, subsequently, on BBD in coral reefs. Based on our non-autonomous model systems, we calculate the infection invasion threshold, providing an environmental condition for the disease to persist in the coral reef community. Our results suggest that temperature significantly impacts coral reef health, with microbiome-favored moderate environmental temperatures resulting in more BBD-infected corals. Our model and related results help investigate potential strategies to protect reef ecosystems from stressors, including BBD.

Revisiting marine heatwaves baselines in warming oceans under nonstationary condition

Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged episodes of above- 'normal' Sea Surface Temperature (SST) which have imposed detrimental impacts on oceans and their dependent ecosystem services. The key question still remained unresolved or at least still not fully addressed in MHW science, is 'What is a valid normal or baseline?'. In other words, can the conventional 'normal' serve as a realistic valid baseline in today's oceans experiencing the impacts of contemporaneous climatic changes and global warming during anthropogenic era? To robustly address this issue, we attempted to propose a methodology for identifying MHW thresholds that accounts for SST warming. In this study, we developed a novel, consistent, flexible and as realistic as possible working framework that practically deals with the current actual climate conditions which mainly involves incorporating the nonstationarity concept into the MHW definition. We presented our proposed approach using an exemplification exhibiting potential global implications. The competency of our proposed framework was evaluated by characterizing MHWs in one of the world's warmest marine environments, the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. Our findings from employing dynamic non-stationary thresholds revealed that, MHWs have been merely evolving into a new warmer routine representing no significant variations in MHWs metrics except for the maximum SSTs during the extreme events.

The impact of intra-annual temperature fluctuations on agricultural temperature extreme events and attribution analysis in mainland China

Daily temperature variations, which tend to exhibit non-constant and non-linear patterns, are often characterized by intra-annual fluctuations that cause severe and frequent extreme temperature events that have an enormous impact on agricultural production. However, the quantitative relationship between intra-annual temperature fluctuations and extreme agricultural temperatures remains unclear. We aimed to investigate intra-annual temperature fluctuation changes based on daily meteorological data in nine agricultural regions across China from 1960 to 2022 and quantify the impact of temperature fluctuations on extreme agricultural temperatures during crop growth periods. Moreover, an attribution analysis of intra-annual temperature fluctuations was performed using climate indicators. Main results showed: (1) intra-annual temperature fluctuations in each region exhibited a certain decrease, and the spatial distribution showed a significant decreasing trend from north to south. (2) Intra-annual temperature fluctuations have moderately exacerbated extreme agricultural hot and cold events during growth periods, which have brought serious challenges to agriculture owing to advances in phenology and unsynchronized rain heat compared to climate warming. The proportion of positive correlations between temperature fluctuations and extreme temperatures was much larger than that of the negative correlations in nearly all of China (percentage of stations: 20.5 %), and the negative correlation was concentrated only in southern China (percentage of stations: 3.7 %). (3) Hydrothermal coupling and elevation moderately affected intra-annual temperature fluctuations. Average temperature, relative humidity, and elevation had negative correlations with intra-annual temperature fluctuations, the correlation coefficients (R) were - 0.62, -0.42 and - 0.12, respectively; however, reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) exhibited a positive correlation (R: 0.29), and all reached highly significant levels (P < 0.01). Climate indicators mainly affected intra-annual temperature fluctuations in eastern China. Specifically, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), unstable Asia Polar Vortex, and increased Western Pacific Subtropical High have enhanced temperature fluctuations. The deepened East Asian Trough and Arctic Oscillation of the negative phase weakened the intra-annual temperature fluctuations. This investigation highlights the crucial function of temperature fluctuation in intensifying extreme temperature occurrences and provides a more reasonable scientific foundation for extreme event prediction and agricultural planning.

Common occurrences of subsurface heatwaves and cold spells in ocean eddies

Extreme ocean temperature events are becoming increasingly common due to global warming, causing catastrophic ecological and socioeconomic impacts1-5. Despite extensive research on surface marine heatwaves (MHWs) and marine cold spells (MCSs) based on satellite observations6,7, our knowledge of these extreme events and their drivers in the subsurface ocean-home to the majority of marine organisms-is very limited8,9. Here we present global observational evidence for the important role of mesoscale eddies in the occurrence and intensification of subsurface MHWs and MCSs. We found that 80% of measured MHWs and MCSs below a depth of 100 m do not concur with surface events. In contrast to the weak link between surface MHWs (MCSs) and ocean eddies, nearly one-third of subsurface MHWs (MCSs) in the global ocean, and more than half of such events in subtropical gyres and mid-latitude main current systems, occur within anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies. These eddy-associated temperature extremes have intensified at rates greater than background level in past decades, suggesting a growing impact of ocean eddies on subsurface MHWs and MCSs with ongoing global warming.

Age, not growth, explains larger body size of Pacific cod larvae during recent marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are often associated with physiological changes throughout biological communities but can also result in biomass declines that correspond with shifts in phenology. We examined the response of larval Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) to MHWs in the Gulf of Alaska across seven years to evaluate the effects of MHWs on hatch phenology, size-at-age, and daily growth and identify potential regulatory mechanisms. Hatch dates were, on average, 19 days earlier since the onset of MHWs, shifting a mean of 15 days earlier per 1 ℃ increase. Size-at-capture was larger during & between MHWs but, contrary to expectations, larvae grew slower and were smaller in size-at-age. The larger size during & between MHWs can be entirely explained by older ages due to earlier hatching. Daily growth variation was well-explained by an interaction among age, temperature, and hatch date. Under cool conditions, early growth was fastest for the latest hatchers. However, this variation converged at warmer temperatures, due to faster growth of earlier hatchers. Stage-specific growth did not vary with temperature, remaining relatively similar from 4 to 8 ℃. Temperature-related demographic changes were more predictable based on phenological shifts rather than changes in growth, which could affect population productivity after MHWs.

Historical and future maximum sea surface temperatures

Marine heat waves affect ocean ecosystems and are expected to become more frequent and intense. Earth system models' ability to reproduce extreme ocean temperature statistics has not been tested quantitatively, making the reliability of their future projections of marine heat waves uncertain. We demonstrate that annual maxima of detrended anomalies in daily mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over 39 years of global satellite observations are described excellently by the generalized extreme value distribution. If models can reproduce the observed distribution of SST extremes, this increases confidence in their marine heat wave projections. 14 CMIP6 models' historical realizations reproduce the satellite-based distribution and its parameters' spatial patterns. We find that maximum ocean temperatures will become warmer (by 1.07° ± 0.17°C under 2°C warming and 2.04° ± 0.18°C under 3.2°C warming). These changes are mainly due to mean SST increases, slightly reinforced by SST seasonality increases. Our study quantifies ocean temperature extremes and gives confidence to model projections of marine heat waves.

Effects of basin-scale climate modes and upwelling on nearshore marine heatwaves and cold spells in the California Current

Marine heatwaves and cold spells (MHWs/MCSs) have been observed to be increasing globally in frequency and intensity based on satellite remote sensing and continue to pose a major threat to marine ecosystems worldwide. Despite this, there are limited in-situ based observational studies in the very shallow nearshore region, particularly in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling Systems (EBUS). We analyzed a unique dataset collected in shallow waters along central California spanning more than four decades (1978-2020) and assessed links with basin-scale climate modes [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño (MEI)] and regional-scale wind-driven upwelling. We found no significant increase/decrease in MHW/MCS frequency, duration, or intensity over the last four decades, but did observe considerable interannual variability linked with basin-scale climate modes. Additionally, there was a decrease in both MHW/MCS occurrence during the upwelling season, and the initiation of individual MHWs/MCSs coincided with anomalous upwelling. Most notably, the co-occurrence of warm (cold) phases of the PDO and MEI with negative (positive) upwelling anomalies strongly enhanced the relative frequency of positive (negative) temperature anomalies and MHW (MCS) days. Collectively, both basin-scale variability and upwelling forcing play a key role in predicting extreme events and shaping nearshore resilience in EBUS.

A quantitative analysis of marine heatwaves in response to rising sea surface temperature

It has been proven that marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased in frequency, duration, and intensity over the past few decades, and this trend will accelerate further under continued global warming. While more intense and frequent MHWs are an expected consequence of rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under continued global warming, it remains unclear to what degree per Celsius warming trend of SSTs contributes to the changes in the MHW metrics. Here, we focus on how the MHW metrics evolve with the SST warming trend by using an adaptive data analysis method based on observational datasets covering the past four decades. We find that the globally averaged increasing rates of the annual MHW frequency, duration, and maximum intensity are approximately 3.7 events, 7.5 days, and 2.2° Celsius per degree Celsius of SST rise, respectively. The increasing rates for the annual MHW days and the fraction of the spatial extents to the global ocean affected by MHWs are approximately 58.8 days and 13.9 % per degree Celsius of SST rise, respectively. Based on these observational-based increasing rates and the projected SST warming from the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the spatial distributions of changes in annual MHW days, frequency, and cumulative intensity are projected to exhibit 2-fold, 4-fold, and 6 to 8-fold increases under the three socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), respectively. The globally averaged annual MHW days will increase to approximately 224.2 ± 26.9 days, and the largest changes are projected to occur in the northeast Pacific, the North Atlantic, the south Indian Oceans, and parts of the Southern Ocean, with approximately 14.8 ± 5.7 % of the global ocean reaching a permanent MHW state by the end of the twenty-first century under SSP585.