The effectiveness of global protected areas for climate change mitigation

Protected areas as hotspots of wildfire activity in fire-prone Temperate and Mediterranean biomes

The European Union has recently passed the Nature Restoration Law which, among others, seeks to increase the cover of forest reserves protected for biodiversity and, globally, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework similarly seeks to expand protected areas. Here we test whether a trade-off exists between protected areas expansion and fire activity, leading to a higher exposure to fire for the population in protected areas, because they often harbor more biomass and occur in remote areas. We analyzed forest fires affecting 14,892,174 ha, and intersecting 10,999 protected areas, across fire-prone European Temperate and Mediterranean forest biomes, and in similar ecosystems within California, Chile and Australia. Protected areas were being disproportionally affected by fire within most Temperate biomes, and fire severity was 20 % higher within protected areas also in Mediterranean biomes. Population in the periphery of forest areas was up to 16 times more likely to be exposed to large wildfires when their environment was within, or near, protected areas. Differences in manageable factors such as fuel loads and road density were primary drivers of the divergence in burned area across protection status, with abiotic factors playing also significant roles. The importance of fuel loads indicates that current plans for expanding strictly protected areas, where no human intervention is allowed, may be particularly problematic from a fire perspective. Wildfire prevention and mitigation must be central goals in the development of conservation/restoration programs to diminish population exposure and fire severity.

Widespread ecological novelty across the terrestrial biosphere

Human activities have transformed many wild and semiwild ecosystems into novel states without historical precedent. Without knowing the current distribution of what drives the emergence of such novelty, predicting future ecosystem states and informing conservation and restoration policies remain difficult. Here we construct global maps of three key drivers generating novel conditions-climate change, defaunation and floristic disruption-and summarize them to a measure of total novelty exposure. We show that the terrestrial biosphere is widely exposed to novel conditions, with 58% of the total area exposed to high levels of total novelty. All climatic regions and biomes are exposed to substantial levels of novelty. Relative contributions of individual drivers vary between climatic regions, with climate changes and defaunation the largest contributors globally. Protected areas and key biodiversity areas, whether formally protected or not, have similar exposure, with high total novelty experienced in 58% of cells inside protected areas and 56% inside key biodiversity areas. Our results highlight the importance of investigating ecosystem and biodiversity responses to rising ecological novelty for informing actions towards biosphere stewardship.

Scaling-up ecological understanding with remote sensing and causal inference

Decades of empirical ecological research have focused on understanding ecological dynamics at local scales. Remote sensing products can help to scale-up ecological understanding to support management actions that need to be implemented across large spatial extents. This new avenue for remote sensing applications requires careful consideration of sources of potential bias that can lead to spurious causal relationships. We propose that causal inference techniques can help to mitigate biases arising from confounding variables and measurement errors that are inherent in remote sensing products. Adopting these statistical techniques will require interdisciplinary collaborations between local ecologists, remote sensing specialists, and experts in causal inference. The insights from integrating 'big' observational data from remote sensing with causal inference could be essential for bridging biodiversity science and conservation.

Collaborative management partnerships strongly decreased deforestation in the most at-risk protected areas in Africa since 2000

Collaborative management partnerships (CMPs) between state wildlife authorities and nonprofit conservation organizations to manage protected areas (PAs) have been used increasingly across Sub-Saharan Africa since the 2000s. They aim to attract funding, build capacity, and increase the environmental effectiveness of PAs. Our study documents the rise of CMPs, examines their current extent, and measures their effectiveness in protecting habitats. We combine statistical matching and Before-After-Control-Intervention regressions to quantify the impact of CMPs, using tree cover loss as a proxy. We identify 127 CMPs located in 16 countries. CMPs are more often located in remote PAs, with habitats that are least threatened by human activity. Our results indicate that, on average, each year in a CMP results in an annual decrease in tree cover loss of about 55% compared to PAs without CMPs. Where initial anthropogenic pressure was low, we measure no effect. Where it was high, we see a 66% decrease in tree cover loss. This highly heterogeneous effect illustrates the importance of moving beyond average effect size when assessing conservation interventions, as well as the need for policy makers to invest public funds to protect the areas the most at risk.

Mechanisms underpinning microplastic effects on the natural climate solutions of wetland ecosystems

Wetland ecosystems are vital carbon dioxide (CO2) sinks, offering significant nature-based solutions for global climate mitigation. However, the recent influx of microplastic (MP) into wetlands substantially impacts key drivers (e.g., plants and microorganisms) underpinning these wetland functions. While MP-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization potentially threaten the long-term wetland C-climate feedbacks, the exact mechanisms and linkage are unclear. This review provides a conceptual framework to elaborate on the interplay between MPs, wetland ecosystems, and the atmospheric milieu. We also summarize published studies that validate possible MP impacts on natural climate solutions of wetlands, as well as provide extensive elaboration on underlying mechanisms. We briefly highlight the relationships between MP influx, wetland degradation, and climate change and conclude by identifying key gaps for future research priorities. Globally, plastic production, MP entry into aquatic systems, and wetland degradation-related emissions are predicted to increase. This means that MP-related emissions and wetland-climate feedback should be addressed in the context of the UN Paris Climate Agreement on net-zero emissions by 2050. This overview serves as a wake-up call on the alarming impacts of MPs on wetland ecosystems and urges a global reconsideration of nature-based solutions in the context of climate mitigation.

Drought-Induced Alterations in Carbon and Water Dynamics of Chinese Fir Plantations at the Trunk Wood Stage

Over the past three decades, China has implemented extensive reforestation programs, primarily utilizing Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook) in southern China, to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and counter extreme climate events. However, the effects of drought on the carbon sequestration capacity of these forests, particularly during the trunk wood stage, remain unclear. This study, conducted in Huitong, Hunan, China, from 2008 to 2013, employed the eddy covariance method to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) and water fluxes in Chinese fir forests, covering a severe drought year in 2011. The purpose was to elucidate the dynamics of carbon and water fluxes during a drought year and across multi-normal year averages. The results showed that changes in soil water content (-8.00%), precipitation (-18.45%), and relative humidity (-5.10%), decreases in air temperature (-0.09 °C) and soil temperature (-0.79 °C), and increases in vapor pressure deficit (19.18%) and net radiation (8.39%) were found in the drought year compared to the normal years. These changes in environmental factors led to considerable decreases in net ecosystem exchange (-40.00%), ecosystem respiration (-13.09%), and gross ecosystem productivity (-18.52%), evapotranspiration (-12.50%), and water use efficiency (-5.83%) in the studied forests in the drought year. In this study, the occurrence of seasonal drought due to uneven precipitation distribution led to a decrease in gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and evapotranspiration (ET). However, the impact of drought on GEP was greater than its effect on ET, resulting in a reduced water use efficiency (WUE). This study emphasized the crucial role of water availability in determining forest productivity and suggested the need for adjusting vegetation management strategies under severe drought conditions. Our results contributed to improving management practices for Chinese fir plantations in response to changing climate conditions.

Substantial terrestrial carbon emissions from global expansion of impervious surface area

Global impervious surface area (ISA) has more than doubled over the last three decades, but the associated carbon emissions resulting from the depletion of pre-existing land carbon stores remain unknown. Here, we report that the carbon losses from biomass and top soil (0-30 cm) due to global ISA expansion reached 46-75 Tg C per year over 1993-2018, accounting for 3.7-6.0% of the concurrent human land-use change emissions. For the Annex I countries of UNFCCC, our estimated emissions are comparable to the carbon emissions arising from settlement expansion as reported by the national greenhouse gas inventories, providing independent validation of this kind. The contrast between growing emissions in non-Annex I countries and declining ones in Annex I countries over the study period can be explained by an observed emerging pattern of emissions evolution dependent on the economic development stage. Our study has implications for international carbon accounting and climate mitigation as it reveals previously ignored but substantial contributions of ISA expansion to anthropogenic carbon emissions through land-use effects.

The effectiveness of natural reserves from the perspective of habitat quality in the southern section of the Hengduan Mountains, Southwestern China

Natural reserves (NRs) play key roles in habitat integrity conservation and biodiversity loss mitigation, and the assessment of the conservation effectiveness of NRs is needed to better manage them. Habitat quality (HQ) comprehensively reflects habitat integrity and biodiversity, but the conservation effectiveness of NRs from the perspective of HQ has rarely been determined at high spatial resolution. Taking the southern section of the Hengduan Mountains (SSHM) in Southwest China as an example, combining an InVEST-HQ model and spatiotemporal change detection methods, the effectiveness of NRs from the perspective of HQ at 30-m spatial resolution was assessed in this study. The effectiveness disparities of NRs across different properties (i.e., management level, conservation target, size, and establishment age) was analyzed and the human pressures on NRs was investigated. The results showed that the HQ of the NRs is good in the SSHM, with the area ratio of the Higher and Highest HQ ≥ 93%. Most of the NR area (94.11%) was effective at improving or maintaining a good HQ. With regard to NR properties, county NRs, NRs designated to conserving wild animals, middle NRs, and younger NRs were more effective, corresponding to management level, conservation target, size, and establishment age, respectively. The human footprint for an effective area is significantly lower than that for an ineffective area, consistent with higher HQ in the effective area and lower HQ in the ineffective area. These findings support the management and zoning of NRs in the SSHM to ensure their effectiveness.

A comprehensive analysis to optimizing national-scale protected area systems under climate change

With the intensification of climate change, incorporating climate information into protected areas planning has become crucial in reducing biodiversity loss. However, the current natural reserve system in China does not take climate information into account. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of existing protected areas through climate refuge and connectivity rankings, and Zonation software was used to identify the ecological priority zone in China by combining climate indicators and human footprint. The results show that the current natural protected areas in China have certain limitations in dealing with climate change, and some protected areas may struggle to maintain their value in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, China still has lots of important areas that can maintain biodiversity under climate change, but most of them are not covered by protected areas. The results provide support for the planning of China's nature protected area system in response to climate change.

Human degradation of tropical moist forests is greater than previously estimated

Tropical forest degradation from selective logging, fire and edge effects is a major driver of carbon and biodiversity loss1-3, with annual rates comparable to those of deforestation4. However, its actual extent and long-term impacts remain uncertain at global tropical scale5. Here we quantify the magnitude and persistence of multiple types of degradation on forest structure by combining satellite remote sensing data on pantropical moist forest cover changes4 with estimates of canopy height and biomass from spaceborne6 light detection and ranging (LiDAR). We estimate that forest height decreases owing to selective logging and fire by 15% and 50%, respectively, with low rates of recovery even after 20 years. Agriculture and road expansion trigger a 20% to 30% reduction in canopy height and biomass at the forest edge, with persistent effects being measurable up to 1.5 km inside the forest. Edge effects encroach on 18% (approximately 206 Mha) of the remaining tropical moist forests, an area more than 200% larger than previously estimated7. Finally, degraded forests with more than 50% canopy loss are significantly more vulnerable to subsequent deforestation. Collectively, our findings call for greater efforts to prevent degradation and protect already degraded forests to meet the conservation pledges made at recent United Nations Climate Change and Biodiversity conferences.

Threats to conservation from national security interests

There is a growing trend of nation states invoking national security and emergency declarations to build state-sponsored infrastructure projects for border defense, energy production, and transportation. Established laws, regulations, and agreements for the protection of nature and cultural heritage within and between countries are becoming secondary to national security, compromising the function of protected areas, such as national parks, wilderness areas, and biosphere reserves that safeguard biodiversity, climate, and human health. We considered cases where decades-long multinational cross-border endangered species recovery programs have been jeopardized by waivers of environmental protection laws to facilitate rapid construction of border barriers that impede the movement and migration of animals, such as at the US-Mexico and Poland-Belarus borders. Renewable energy megaprojects, such as the Pinacate solar plant in Mexico, coupled with power transmission lines and road networks likewise cast a large footprint on the land and are being carried out with minimal to no environmental compliance under the guise of national security. National sovereignty likewise has been used as justification for bypassing laws to proceed with similar projects, such as Mexico's Dos Bocas refinery and Poland's Vistula Spit canal. Emphasis on security is also apparent in increasing military expenditure by the world's largest economies, which has created a mismatch with improvement in environmental policy stringency. Decisions to prioritize security can undermine democratic principles and environmental review protocols, trivialize humanity's dependence on functioning ecosystems, and contradict the United Nation's resolution on the human right to a healthy environment. Framing infrastructure projects as matters of national security also foments civil and political unrest by the labeling and casting of dissenters, including conservation scientists and environmental defenders, as antinational. World leaders must refrain from misusing extraordinary powers, adhere to laws and international agreements, and consult experts and local people before taking unilateral action on projects that affect ecological and human communities.