Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil

Spatial patterns and clustering of dengue incidence in Mexico: Analysis of Moran's index across 2,471 municipalities from 2022 to 2024

Dengue is an increasing public health challenge, with rising cases and expanding distribution. Its complex epidemiology is influenced by climate change, urbanization, and the circulation of multiple viral serotypes. This study aimed to characterize the spatial and temporal (2022-2024) patterns of dengue incidence across 2,471 municipalities in Mexico. Weekly case counts, obtained through the normative epidemiological surveillance system for vector-borne diseases, were used to calculate incidence rates per 100,000 population. Geographic Information Systems were employed to analyze spatial patterns, while Local Moran's I statistic and a k-nearest neighbors spatial weights matrix identified spatial clusters. A total of 622,689 dengue cases were analyzed, with incidence rates rising from 29.4 in 2022 to 279.0 per 100,000 in 2024. Dengue transmission expanded, affecting 38.0% of municipalities in 2022 and 68.6% by 2024 ([Formula: see text] < 0.001). Spatial clustering also increased, with positive clusters increasing from 28 municipalities in 2022-98 in both 2023 and 2024. Moran's I values indicated a peak in spatial autocorrelation in 2023 (I = 0.57). While DENV-2 was the predominant serotype in 2022, DENV-3 became dominant in 2023 and 2024. Over time, high-incidence areas shifted from southern and central regions to the southeast and Pacific coast. These findings suggest the growing burden of dengue in Mexico, driven by rising incidence, expanding geographic distribution, and evolving spatial patterns. A coordinated public health response is needed to mitigate the impact of dengue and prevent its spread to newly affected areas.

Climate, inter-serotype competition and arboviral interactions shape dengue dynamics in Thailand

The incidence and global spread of dengue are reaching alarming levels. Thailand represents a critical disease epicenter and demands an understanding of the environmental and evolutionary pressures that sustain DENV transmission. Unlike most affected countries experiencing recurrent outbreaks of the same serotype or replacement of one serotype for another, Thailand is an ecological niche for all four serotypes. Favorable climate and mosquito vector availability maintain a landscape defined by stable, endemic circulation of genotypes, with minimal genetic variation attributed to sporadic, external introductions. This equilibrium is achieved through inter-serotype competition, characterized by reproductive fitness levels that maintain infections (Re>1) and elevated evolutionary rates ( ~ 10-4), which steadily increase the genetic diversity of each serotype. This conclusion is reinforced by the identification of numerous positively selected mutations, skewed in the direction of non-structural proteins conferring replication and transmission advantages versus those present in structural proteins evading neutralizing antibodies. Precipitous drops in DENV cases following outbreaks of Chikungunya suggest that interactions with other arboviruses also impact DENV dynamics through vector competition, replication inhibition or partial cross-protection. Thailand is a major exporter of DENV cases and novel emergent lineages gaining fitness here are likely to spread internationally. Surveillance is therefore paramount to monitor diversification trends and take measures to avoid the establishment of similar sustained, local transmission in other countries.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Clinical and Epidemiological Profile of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in Bahia, Brazil: A Comparative Analysis of Pre- and Post-Pandemic Trends

In recent years, the incidence of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) has increased due to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic extends beyond mortality rates. Recent analyses suggest that the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 have significantly affected the epidemiology of other key respiratory viruses, such as influenza virus (FLUV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and rhinovirus (RV). These changes raise new questions about the dynamics and incidence of post-COVID-19 respiratory infections, as well as potential alterations in symptom profiles and clinical outcomes. In this study, we analyzed data from the Epidemiological Surveillance Information System of Respiratory Viral Agents (SIVEP-Gripe), established by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, to examine the profile of SARI before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Our data reveal a distinct epidemiological pattern, with a significant decrease in FLUV notifications during the pandemic, accompanied by peaks in RSV and RV cases in late 2020. Additionally, there was a shift in the age distribution of RSV and other viral infections, with individuals infected during the pandemic being older than those infected before the pandemic. Interestingly, the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Bahia State resulted in a reduction in the frequency of symptoms associated with non-SARS-CoV-2 SARI, without altering clinical outcomes. Our findings suggest that the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has contributed to a clinical and epidemiological shift, particularly for FLUV, RSV, and other viruses, marked by a reduction in symptoms such as fever, dyspnea, respiratory distress, and the need for ventilatory support. The underlying mechanisms driving these changes remain unclear. These insights are crucial for public health authorities and policymakers to refine surveillance strategies and enhance control measures for respiratory viruses, particularly those causing SARI.

Serotype-specific epidemiological patterns of inapparent versus symptomatic primary dengue virus infections: a 17-year cohort study in Nicaragua

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem worldwide. Most primary infections with the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are inapparent; nonetheless, whether the distribution of symptomatic versus inapparent infections by serotype varies remains unknown. Here, we present (1) the evaluation of a DENV1-4 envelope domain III multiplex microsphere-based assay (EDIII-MMBA) to serotype inapparent primary infections and (2) its application leveraging 17 years of prospective sample collection from the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS).

METHODS

We analysed primary DENV infections in the PDCS from 2004 to 2022 detected by inhibition ELISA (iELISA) or RT-PCR. First, we evaluated the performance of the EDIII-MMBA for serotyping with samples characterised by RT-PCR or focus reduction neutralisation test. Next, we analysed a subset of inapparent primary DENV infections in the PDCS with the EDIII-MMBA to evaluate the epidemiology of inapparent infections. Remaining infections were inferred using stochastic imputation, taking year and neighbourhood into account. Infection incidence and percentage of inapparent, symptomatic, and severe infections were analysed by serotype.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 30, 2004, and March 10, 2022, a total of 5931 DENV-naive participants were followed in the PDCS. There were 1626 primary infections (382 symptomatic, 1244 inapparent) detected by iELISA or RT-PCR over the study period. The EDIII-MMBA demonstrated excellent overall accuracy (100%, 95% CI 95·8-100) for serotyping inapparent primary DENV infections when evaluated against gold-standard serotyping methods. Of the 1244 inapparent infections, we analysed 574 (46%) using the EDIII-MMBA. We found that the majority of primary infections were inapparent, with DENV3 exhibiting the highest likelihood of symptomatic (pooled odds ratio compared with DENV1: 2·13, 95% CI 1·28-3·56) and severe (6·75, 2·01-22·62) primary infections, whereas DENV2 was similar to DENV1 in both analyses. Considerable within-year and between-year variation in serotype distribution between symptomatic and inapparent infections and circulation of serotypes undetected in symptomatic cases were observed in multiple years.

INTERPRETATION

Our study indicates that case surveillance skews the perceived epidemiological footprint of DENV. We reveal a more complex and intricate pattern of serotype distribution in inapparent infections. The substantial differences in infection outcomes by serotype emphasises the need for vaccines with balanced immunogenicity and efficacy across serotypes.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (National Institutes of Health) and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Zika virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies: a priority agenda for research and development

The 2015-16 Zika virus epidemic in the Americas drew global attention to Zika virus infection as a cause of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. The epidemic highlighted the urgent need for preventive measures, including vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). However, nearly 9 years later, no licensed Zika virus vaccines or mAbs are available, leaving the world's populations unprotected from ongoing disease transmission and future epidemics. The current low Zika virus incidence and unpredictability of future outbreaks complicates prospects for evaluation, licensure, and commercial viability of Zika virus vaccines and mAbs. We conducted an extensive review of Zika virus vaccines and mAbs in development, identifying 16 vaccines in phase 1 or phase 2 trials and three mAbs in phase 1 trials, and convened a 2-day meeting of 130 global Zika virus experts to discuss research priorities to advance their development. This Series paper summarises a priority research agenda to address key knowledge gaps and accelerate the licensure of Zika virus vaccines and mAbs for global use.

Transient Expression of Zika NS2B Protein Antigen in Nicotiana benthamiana and Use for Arboviruses Diagnosis

Zika (ZIKV) and Dengue (DENV) viruses are clinically significant due to their severe neurological and hemorrhagic complications. Rapid diagnostics often rely on nonstructural proteins to generate specific antibodies. This study aimed to produce IgG antibodies from the recombinant ZIKV protein and plant-expressed NS2B protein for arbovirus detection in serum and urine samples. The NS2B protein was expressed in Nicotiana benthamiana and purified chromatographically. Validation of recombinant NS2B as an antigen in indirect immunoassays demonstrated 95% sensitivity and 100% specificity in IgM/IgG ELISA tests, enabling effective detection of ZIKV and DENV. Notably, r-ZIKV-NS2B IgG identified positive ZIKV and DENV cases in urine but failed to detect negatives, suggesting limitations in specificity for urine diagnostics. Using urine as a diagnostic medium offers a less invasive and more practical approach, broadening the test applicability. This study utilized patient-derived positive urine samples and healthy samples spiked with an exogenous virus. Findings highlight the potential of the ZIKV-NS2B protein as a robust antigen for arbovirus diagnosis and demonstrate the viability of plant-based systems for antigen production, advancing diagnostics for neglected tropical diseases.

Birth Outcomes Related to Prenatal Zika, Dengue, and Other Flavivirus Infections in the Zika en Embarazadas y Niños Prospective Cohort Study in Colombia

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in pregnancy is associated with severe abnormalities of the brain and eye and other adverse outcomes. Zika en Embarazadas y Niños was a prospective cohort study conducted in multiple Colombian cities that enrolled pregnant women in their first trimester. Specimens collected from pregnant women (n = 1,519) during February 2017-September 2018 and their infants (n = 1,080) during June 2017-March 2019 were tested for prenatal ZIKV infection by nucleic acid amplification tests or IgM antibody testing. Zika virus infection in pregnancy was present in 3.2% of pregnant women (incidence rate [IR] per 1,000 person-months = 5.9, 95% CI: 4.3-7.8). Presumptive ZIKV infection was present in 0.8% of infants (IR = 1.6, 95% CI: 0.7-2.9). Five percent of infants with prenatal ZIKV exposure or infection presented with Zika-associated abnormalities; 4.7% were small for gestational age. Understanding the risk of ZIKV infection during pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes can help inform counseling efforts.

Dengue hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality changes in trend in Ecuador: a nationwide study from 2015 to 2022

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to analyze dengue hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality trends in Ecuador, along with sociodemographic factors influencing adverse outcomes.

METHODS

This study included 31,616 dengue hospitalizations in Ecuador during 2015-2022, of which 115 (0.36%) died. Data were extracted from national hospital registries. Age adjusted rates were calculated, and for the analysis of changes in trend, a Joinpoint regression was performed. Multivariate binary and multinomial logistic regressions were performed for assessing sociodemographic factors influencing dengue adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

During 2015-2022, the mean age adjusted dengue hospitalization rate was 22.3 per 100,000 inhabitants with 49.41% annual decrease during 2015-2017 and 31.73% annual increase during 2017-2022 with higher rates in 2020 with 31.61, 2021 with 34.42, and 2022 with 25.81. The mean dengue in-hospital mortality rate was 0.08, mortality rates did not show significant changes during 2015-2022. Higher probability of death was observed in ages ≥50 years and ethnic minorities. People living in rural areas exhibited a 64% higher risk for complicated dengue hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

It was observed as an important accomplishment in Ecuador's ongoing efforts to improve healthcare regarding dengue. 0.36% of dengue hospitalizations ended in death which is below the recommended 1%. The increase in dengue hospitalizations in Ecuador during recent years remains a concern. The COVID-19 pandemic might have influenced dengue prevention and vector control to be neglected leading to an increase in cases.

Exploring the urban arbovirus landscape in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: transmission dynamics and patterns of disease spread

Background

This study focuses on urban arboviruses, specifically dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV), which pose a significant public health challenge in Rio de Janeiro state, Southeast Brazil. In our research, we highlight critical findings on the transmission dynamics of these arboviruses in Rio de Janeiro, identifying distinct patterns of disease spread.

Methods

By combining genomic data with case reports from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, we have analysed the phylogenetics, prevalence and spatial distribution of these endemic viruses within the state.

Findings

Our results revealed sustained DENV transmission primarily in the northern part of the state, a significant ZIKV epidemic in 2016 affecting all mesoregions, and two major CHIKV outbreaks in 2018 and 2019, predominantly impacting the northern and southern areas. Our analysis suggests an inverse relationship between arboviral case incidence and urban density, with less populous regions experiencing higher transmission rates, potentially attributed to a complex interplay of factors such as the efficacy of vector control measures, environmental conditions, local immunity levels, and human mobility. Furthermore, our investigation unveiled distinct age and gender trends among affected individuals. Notably, dengue cases were predominantly observed in young adults aged 32, while chikungunya cases were more prevalent among individuals over 41. In contrast, cases of ZIKV were concentrated around the 33-year age group. Intriguingly, females accounted for nearly 60% of the cases, suggesting a potential gender-based difference in infection rates.

Interpretation

Our findings underscore the complexity of arbovirus transmission and the need for interventions tailored to different geographical mesoregions. Enhanced surveillance and genomic sequencing will be essential for a deeper, more nuanced understanding of regional arbovirus dynamics. Identifying potential blind spots within the state will be pivotal for developing and implementing more effective public health strategies, specifically designed to address the unique challenges posed by these viruses throughout the state.

Funding

This study was supported by the National Institutes of Health USA grant U01 AI151698 for the United World Arbovirus Research Network (UWARN) and the CRP-ICGEB RESEARCH GRANT 2020 Project CRP/BRA20-03.

Serotype-Specific Epidemiological Patterns of Inapparent versus Symptomatic Primary Dengue Virus Infections: A 17-year cohort study in Nicaragua

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem worldwide. Most primary infections with the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are inapparent; nonetheless, whether the distribution of symptomatic versus inapparent infections by serotype varies remains unknown. Here, we present (1) the evaluation of a multiplex DENV1-4 envelope domain III multiplex microsphere-based assay (EDIII-MMBA) to serotype inapparent primary infections and (2) its application leveraging 17 years of prospective sample collection from the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS). First, we evaluated the performance of the EDIII-MMBA with samples characterized by RT-PCR or focus reduction neutralization test. Next, we analyzed 46% (N=574) of total inapparent primary DENV infections in the PDCS with the EDIII-MMBA to evaluate the epidemiology of inapparent infections. Remaining infections were inferred using stochastic imputation, taking year and neighborhood into account. Infection incidence and percentage of inapparent, symptomatic, and severe infections were analyzed by serotype. The EDIII-MMBA demonstrated excellent overall accuracy (100%, 95.8-100%) for serotyping symptomatic and inapparent primary DENV infections when evaluated against gold-standard serotyping methods. We found that a significant majority of primary infections were inapparent, with DENV3 exhibiting the highest likelihood of symptomatic and severe primary infections (Pooled OR compared to DENV1 = 2.13, 95% CI 1.28-3.56, and 6.75, 2.01-22.62, respectively), whereas DENV2 was similar to DENV1 in both analyses. Significant within- and between-year variation in serotype distribution between symptomatic and inapparent infections and circulation of serotypes undetected in symptomatic cases were observed in multiple years. Our study indicates that case surveillance skews the perceived epidemiological footprint of DENV. We reveal a more complex and intricate pattern of serotype distribution in inapparent infections. The significant differences in infection outcomes by serotype emphasizes the need for vaccines with balanced immunogenicity and efficacy across serotypes.