Heterogeneous responses of temperate-zone amphibian populations to climate change complicates conservation planning

Stage-Specific Demographic Effects of Hydrologic Variation in a Stream Salamander

AbstractWe lack a strong understanding of how organisms with complex life histories respond to climate variation. Many stream-associated species have multistage life histories that are likely to influence the demographic consequences of floods and droughts. However, tracking stage-specific demographic responses requires high-resolution, long-term data that are rare. We used 8 years of capture-recapture data for the headwater stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus to quantify the effects of flooding and drying magnitude on stage-specific vital rates and population growth. Drying reduced larval recruitment but increased the probability of metamorphosis (i.e., adult recruitment). Flooding reduced adult recruitment but had no effect on larval recruitment. Larval and adult survival declined with flooding but were unaffected by drying. Annual population growth rates (λ) declined with flooding and drying. Lambda also declined over the study period (2012-2021), although mean λ was 1.0 over this period. Our results indicate that G. porphyriticus populations are resilient to hydrologic variation because of compensatory effects on recruitment of larvae versus adults (i.e., reproduction vs. metamorphosis). Complex life cycles may enable this resilience to climate variation by creating opportunities for compensatory demographic responses across stages. However, more frequent and intense hydrologic variation in the latter half of this study contributed to a decline in λ over time, suggesting that increasing environmental variability poses a threat even when demographic compensation occurs.

Heat stress and amphibian immunity in a time of climate change

As a class of vertebrates, amphibians, are at greater risk for declines or extinctions than any other vertebrate group, including birds and mammals. There are many threats, including habitat destruction, invasive species, overuse by humans, toxic chemicals and emerging diseases. Climate change which brings unpredictable temperature changes and rainfall constitutes an additional threat. Survival of amphibians depends on immune defences functioning well under these combined threats. Here, we review the current state of knowledge of how amphibians respond to some natural stressors, including heat and desiccation stress, and the limited studies of the immune defences under these stressful conditions. In general, the current studies suggest that desiccation and heat stress can activate the hypothalamus pituitary-interrenal axis, with possible suppression of some innate and lymphocyte-mediated responses. Elevated temperatures can alter microbial communities in amphibian skin and gut, resulting in possible dysbiosis that fosters reduced resistance to pathogens. This article is part of the theme issue 'Amphibian immunity: stress, disease and ecoimmunology'.

Modeling climate change effects on spatial distribution of wild Aegilops L. (Poaceae) toward food security management and biodiversity conservation in Iran

The demand for food resources is increasing quickly because human populations are growing; therefore, food security may become one of the largest human challenges of this century. Crop wild relatives (CWRs) are the most valuable plant genetic resources (PGR) for the conservation of genetic diversity in crops. However, climate change is an added pressure on biodiversity, particularly on this valuable group of plants. It is predicted that more than 50% of this group may be lost by 2055 as a result of the effects of climate change. Iran ranks high in the world in its conservation priorities for CWRs. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on Aegilops L. as important CWRs. MaxEnt was applied to predict the spatial distribution of seven Aegilops species under different climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) of 2050 and 2080. According to the findings, all species exhibited reduction or expansion responses under all of the above-mentioned climatic scenarios. However, the range change was negative for some species (i.e., Aegilops columnaris, Aegilops cylindrica, Aegilops speltoides, Aegilops tauschii [in all scenarios of 2050 and 2080], and Aegilops kotschyi [RCP 2.6 2050 and 2080]), and positive for others (i.e., Aegilops crassa, Aegilops triuncialis [in all scenarios of 2050 and 2080], and Aegilops kotschyi [RCP 8.5 2050 and 2080]). The results of this study emphasize the need for conservation plans for the country's genetic resources, including regular monitoring and assessment of ecological and demographic changes. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:697-708. © 2021 SETAC.

Extending the biologging revolution to amphibians: Implantation, extraction, and validation of miniature temperature loggers

Quantifying ectotherm body temperature is important to understand physiological performance under environmental change. The increasing availability of small, commercially-available animal-borne biologgers increases accessibility to high-quality body temperature data. However, amphibians present several challenges to successful datalogger implantation including small body sizes and physiologically active skin. We developed a method for the implantation, extraction, and validation of temperature biologgers in captive salamanders. We assessed the effect of biologger implantation and extraction surgery on body condition. Implantation had no effects on short or long-term body condition. Body condition also did not differ between implant and control groups after datalogger extraction. Biologgers did not alter preferred temperature in a laboratory thermal gradient, indicating that temperature data would not be biased by implantation. We provide detailed recommendations for datalogger placement and refinement of surgical techniques to further improve outcomes, enhance our understanding of fitness, species range limitations, and responses to environmental and climatic change.

Climate-associated decline of body condition in a fossorial salamander

Temperate ectotherms have responded to recent environmental change, likely due to the direct and indirect effects of temperature on key life cycle events. Yet, a substantial number of ectotherms are fossorial, spending the vast majority of their lives in subterranean microhabitats that are assumed to be buffered against environmental change. Here, we examine whether seasonal climatic conditions influence body condition (a measure of general health and vigor), reproductive output, and breeding phenology in a northern population of fossorial salamander (Spotted Salamander, Ambystoma maculatum). We found that breeding body condition declined over a 12-year monitoring period (2008-2019) with warmer summer and autumn temperatures at least partly responsible for the observed decline in body condition. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated metabolism drives the negative association between temperature and condition. Population-level reproduction, assessed via egg mass counts, showed high interannual variation and was weakly influenced by autumn temperatures. Salamander breeding phenology was strongly correlated with lake ice melt but showed no long-term temporal trend (1986-2019). Climatic warming in the region, which has been and is forecasted to be strongest in the summer and autumn, is predicted to lead to a 5%-27% decline in salamander body condition under realistic near-future climate scenarios. Although the subterranean environment offers a thermal buffer, the observed decline in condition and relatively strong effect of summer temperature on body condition suggest that fossorial salamanders are sensitive to the effects of a warming climate. Given the diversity of fossorial taxa, heightened attention to the vulnerability of subterranean microhabitat refugia and their inhabitants is warranted amid global climatic change.

Resilience of native amphibian communities following catastrophic drought: Evidence from a decade of regional-scale monitoring

The increasing frequency and severity of drought may exacerbate ongoing global amphibian declines. However, interactions between drought and coincident stressors, coupled with high interannual variability in amphibian abundances, can mask the extent and underlying mechanisms of drought impacts. We synthesized a decade (2009 - 2019) of regional-scale amphibian monitoring data (2273 surveys, 233 ponds, and seven species) from across California's Bay Area and used dynamic occupancy modeling to estimate trends and drivers of species occupancy. An extreme drought during the study period resulted in substantial habitat loss, with 51% of ponds drying in the worst year of drought, compared to <20% in pre-drought years. Nearly every species exhibited reduced breeding activity during the drought, with the occupancy of some species (American bullfrogs and California newts) declining by >25%. Invasive fishes and bullfrogs were also associated with reduced amphibian occupancy, and these taxa were locally extirpated from numerous sites during drought, without subsequent recovery-suggesting that drought may present an opportunity to remove invaders. Despite a historic, multi-year drought, native amphibians rebounded quickly to pre-drought occupancy levels, demonstrating evidence of resilience. Permanent waterbodies supported higher persistence of native species during drought years than did temporary waterbodies, and we therefore highlight the value of hydroperiod diversity in promoting amphibian stability.

Estimation of breeding probability can make monitoring data more revealing: a case study of amphibians

Monitoring programs serve to detect trends in the distribution and abundance of species. To do so, monitoring programs often use static state variables. Dynamic state variables that describe population dynamics might be more valuable because they allow for a mechanistic understanding of the processes that lead to population trends. We fit multistate occupancy models to data from a country-wide multispecies amphibian occupancy monitoring program and estimated occupancy and breeding probabilities. If breeding probabilities are determinants of occupancy dynamics, then they may serve in monitoring programs as state variables that describe dynamic processes. The results showed that breeding probabilities were low and that a large proportion of the populations had to be considered to be non-breeding populations (i.e., populations where adults are present but no breeding occurs). For some species, the majority of populations were non-breeding populations. We found that non-breeding populations have lower persistence probabilities than populations where breeding occurs. Breeding probabilities may thus explain trends in occupancy but they might also explain other ecological phenomena, such as the success of invasive species, which had high breeding probabilities. Signs of breeding, i.e., the presence of eggs and larvae, were often hard to detect. Importantly, non-breeding populations also had low detection probabilities, perhaps because they had lower abundances. We suggest that monitoring programs should invest more in the detection of life history stages indicative of breeding, and also into the detection of non-breeding populations. We conclude that breeding probability should be used as a state variable in monitoring programs because it can lead to deeper insights into the processes driving occupancy dynamics.

Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?

The global amphibian crisis is driven by a range of stressors including disease, habitat loss, and environmental contamination. The role of climate change remains poorly studied and is likely to influence environmental suitability, ranges, reproduction, and phenology. This study aimed to characterize the bioclimatic-habitat niche space of the Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) throughout its European range and to assess the impact of climate on the toad's environmental suitability and breeding behavior in Ireland, where declines in recent decades have resulted in it being regionally Red-Listed as Endangered. To address these questions, we first identified which climate variables best predict the current bioclimatic niche, fecundity (number of eggs deposit), and phenology. We then used future climate projections for two time periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to predict how the species range, fecundity, and phenology would change. The European range of the species was found to be limited by winter temperatures while its bioclimatic niche varied markedly throughout its range. Species distribution models suggested projected climate change will increase environmental suitability for the species throughout its range, including Ireland, but most notably in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Fecundity in Ireland was greatest during the cool temperatures of spring and after wet winters associated with ephemeral breeding pool availability. Warm, dry summers in the preceding year influenced fecundity the following spring indicative of carryover effects. Initiation of spawning was driven by spring temperatures, not rainfall. Projections suggested future climate change may increase fecundity in Ireland while spawning may commence earlier throughout the 21st century especially under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). Despite recent range contraction and population declines due to habitat deterioration, the Natterjack toad, if subject to a suitable species conservation strategy, has the potential to be a climate change winner, notwithstanding unpredictable habitat and land-use change, sea-level rise inducing coastal erosion, changes in invertebrate prey abundance, and disease.

The myriad of complex demographic responses of terrestrial mammals to climate change and gaps of knowledge: A global analysis

Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute <1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognized as most vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, for most mammals and regions sensitive to climate change, holistic demographic responses to climate remain unknown. At the same time, we reveal that filling this knowledge gap is critical as the effects of climate change will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others, often depending on the specific environmental context, complicating simple projections of population fates. Assessments of population viability under climate change are in critical need to gather data that account for multiple demographic responses, and coordinated actions to assess demography holistically should be prioritized for mammals and other taxa.

From satellites to frogs: Quantifying ecohydrological change, drought mitigation, and population demography in desert meadows

Increasing frequency and severity of droughts have motivated natural resource managers to mitigate harmful ecological and hydrological effects of drought, but drought mitigation is an emerging science and evaluating its effectiveness is difficult. We examined ecohydrological responses of drought mitigation actions aimed at conserving populations of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) in a semi-arid valley in Nevada, USA. Abundance of this rare frog had declined precipitously after multiple droughts. Mitigation included excavating ponds to increase available surface water and installing earthen dams to raise water tables. We assessed responses of riparian vegetation to mitigation using a 30-year time series of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and gridded weather data. We then analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset to evaluate the effects of drought mitigation and NDVI on the probability of frog survival and rates of recruitment. After accounting for interannual precipitation variability, we found that NDVI increased significantly from before to after drought mitigation, suggesting that mitigation influenced the hydrology and vegetation of the meadows. Frog survival increased with NDVI, but mitigation had a stronger effect than NDVI suggesting that excavated mitigation ponds were particularly important for frog survival during drought. In contrast, frog recruitment was associated with NDVI more than mitigation, but only in meadows where NDVI was dependent on precipitation. At meadows with available groundwater, recruitment was associated with mitigation ponds. These findings suggest that mitigation ponds are critical for juvenile frogs to recruit into the adult population, but recruitment can also be increased by raising water tables in meadows lacking groundwater sources. Lagged recruitment (i.e., effects on larvae and juveniles) was negatively associated with NDVI. This study illustrates the ecohydrological complexity of drought mitigation and demonstrates novel ways to assess the effectiveness of drought mitigation using time series of readily available satellite imagery and organismal data.

Density Dependence and Adult Survival Drive Dynamics in Two High Elevation Amphibian Populations

Amphibian conservation has progressed from the identification of declines to mitigation, but efforts are hampered by the lack of nuanced information about the effects of environmental characteristics and stressors on mechanistic processes of population regulation. Challenges include a paucity of long-term data and scant information about the relative roles of extrinsic (e.g., weather) and intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) factors. We used a Bayesian formulation of an open population capture-recapture model and >30 years of data to examine intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating two adult boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) populations. We modelled population growth rate and apparent survival directly, assessed their temporal variability, and derived estimates of recruitment. Populations were relatively stable (geometric mean population growth rate >1) and regulated by negative density dependence (i.e., higher population sizes reduced population growth rate). In the smaller population, density dependence also acted on adult survival. In the larger population, higher population growth was associated with warmer autumns. Survival estimates ranged from 0.30–0.87, per-capita recruitment was <1 in most years, and mean seniority probability was >0.50, suggesting adult survival is more important to population growth than recruitment. Our analysis indicates density dependence is a primary driver of population dynamics for P. maculata adults.

A demographic approach to understanding the effects of climate on population growth

Amphibian life history traits are affected by temperature and precipitation. Yet, connecting these relationships to population growth, especially for multiple populations within a species, is lacking and precludes our understanding of amphibian population dynamics and distributions. Therefore, we constructed integral projection models for five populations along an elevational gradient to determine how climate and season affect population growth of a terrestrial salamander Plethodon montanus and the importance of demographic vital rates to population growth under varying climate scenarios. We found that population growth was typically higher at the highest elevation compared to the lower elevations, whereas varying inactive season conditions, represented by the late fall, winter and early spring, produced a greater variation in population growth than varying active season conditions (late spring, summer, and early fall). Furthermore, survival and growth were consistently more important, as measured by elasticity, compared to fecundity, and large females had the greatest elasticity compared to all other body sizes. Our results suggest that changing inactive season conditions, especially those that would affect the survival of large individuals, may have the greatest impact on population growth. We recommend future experimental studies focus on the inactive season to better elucidate the mechanisms by which these conditions can affect survival.

Drivers of amphibian population dynamics and asynchrony at local and regional scales

Identifying the drivers of population fluctuations in spatially distinct populations remains a significant challenge for ecologists. Whereas regional climatic factors may generate population synchrony (i.e. the Moran effect), local factors including the level of density dependence may reduce the level of synchrony. Although divergences in the scaling of population synchrony and spatial environmental variation have been observed, the regulatory factors that underlie such mismatches are poorly understood. Few previous studies have investigated how density-dependent processes and population-specific responses to weather variation influence spatial synchrony at both local and regional scales. We addressed this issue in a pond-breeding amphibian, the great crested newt Triturus cristatus. We used capture-recapture data collected through long-term surveys in five T. cristatus populations in Western Europe. In all populations-and subpopulations within metapopulations-population size, annual survival and recruitment fluctuated over time. Likewise, there was considerable variation in these demographic rates between populations and within metapopulations. These fluctuations and variations appear to be context-dependent and more related to site-specific characteristics than local or regional climatic drivers. We found a low level of demographic synchrony at both local and regional levels. Weather has weak and spatially variable effects on survival, recruitment and population growth rate. In contrast, density dependence was a common phenomenon (at least for population growth) in almost all populations and subpopulations. Our findings support the idea that the Moran effect is low in species where the population dynamics more closely depends on local factors (e.g. population density and habitat characteristics) than on large-scale environmental fluctuation (e.g. regional climatic variation). Such responses may have far-reaching consequences for the long-term viability of spatially structured populations and their ability to respond to large-scale climatic anomalies.

Amphibian and reptile phenology: the end of the warming hiatus and the influence of the NAO in the North Mediterranean

In the south of France, the so-called climate hiatus from 1998 to 2013 was associated with a late winter cooling which has affected the phenology of several reptiles and amphibian species, delaying their dates of first appearances in spring. This episode has been related to a period of frequently negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO_i). The recent increase of this index after this episode marks the end of the "hiatus" and provides an opportunity to verify the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the fauna of the North Mediterranean region. Most of the emergence dates of amphibians and reptiles in spring have rapidly advanced from 1983 to 1997 and then receded or stabilized from 1998 to 2010. They began to advance again since 2010. These phenological changes covary with the temperature of February-March in the study area, which is itself related to the variations of the NAO index. These changes confirm the influence of the NAO on the phenology of terrestrial organisms in northern Mediterranean where its influence is sometimes assumed to be attenuated.

What Have Long-Term Field Studies Taught Us About Population Dynamics?

Long-term studies have been crucial to the advancement of population biology, especially our understanding of population dynamics. We argue that this progress arises from three key characteristics of long-term research. First, long-term data are necessary to observe the heterogeneity that drives most population processes. Second, long-term studies often inherently lead to novel insights. Finally, long-term field studies can serve as model systems for population biology, allowing for theory and methods to be tested under well-characterized conditions. We illustrate these ideas in three long-term field systems that have made outsized contributions to our understanding of population ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. We then highlight three emerging areas to which long-term field studies are well positioned to contribute in the future: ecological forecasting, genomics, and macrosystems ecology. Overcoming the obstacles associated with maintaining long-term studies requires continued emphasis on recognizing the benefits of such studies to ensure that long-term research continues to have a substantial impact on elucidating population biology.

Continental-scale determinants of population trends in European amphibians and reptiles

The continuous decline of biodiversity is determined by the complex and joint effects of multiple environmental drivers. Still, a large part of past global change studies reporting and explaining biodiversity trends have focused on a single driver. Therefore, we are often unable to attribute biodiversity changes to different drivers, since a multivariable design is required to disentangle joint effects and interactions. In this work, we used a meta-regression within a Bayesian framework to analyze 843 time series of population abundance from 17 European amphibian and reptile species over the last 45 years. We investigated the relative effects of climate change, alien species, habitat availability, and habitat change in driving trends of population abundance over time, and evaluated how the importance of these factors differs across species. A large number of populations (54%) declined, but differences between species were strong, with some species showing positive trends. Populations declined more often in areas with a high number of alien species, and in areas where climate change has caused loss of suitability. Habitat features showed small variation over the last 25 years, with an average loss of suitable habitat of 0.1%/year per population. Still, a strong interaction between habitat availability and the richness of alien species indicated that the negative impact of alien species was particularly strong for populations living in landscapes with less suitable habitat. Furthermore, when excluding the two commonest species, habitat loss was the main correlate of negative population trends for the remaining species. By analyzing trends for multiple species across a broad spatial scale, we identify alien species, climate change, and habitat changes as the major drivers of European amphibian and reptile decline.

Seasonal differences in climate change explain a lack of multi-decadal shifts in population characteristics of a pond breeding salamander

There is considerable variation among studies that evaluate how amphibian populations respond to global climate change. We used 23 years of annual survey data to test whether changes in climate have caused predictable shifts in the phenology and population characteristics of adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) during spring breeding migrations. Although we observed year-to-year correlation between seasonal climate variables and salamander population characteristics, there have not been long-term, directional shifts in phenological or population characteristics. Warm winters consistently resulted in early migration dates, but across the 23-year study, there was no overall shift towards warmer winters and thus no advanced migration timing. Warm summers and low variability in summer temperatures were correlated with large salamander body sizes, yet an overall shift towards increasing body sizes was not observed despite rising summer temperatures during the study. This was likely due to the absence of long-term changes of within-year variation in summer temperatures, which was a stronger determinant of body size than summer temperature alone. Climate-induced shifts in population characteristics were thus not observed for this species as long-term changes in important seasonal climate variables were not observed during the 23-years of the study. Different amphibian populations will likely be more resilient to climate change impacts than others, and the probability of amphibians exhibiting long-term population changes will depend on how seasonal climate change interacts with a species’ life history, phenology, and geographic location. Linking a wide range of seasonal climatic conditions to species or population characteristics should thus improve our ability for explaining idiosyncratic responses of species to climate change.

Slow life-history strategies are associated with negligible actuarial senescence in western Palaearctic salamanders

Actuarial senescence has been viewed for a long time as an inevitable and uniform process. However, the work on senescence has mainly focused on endotherms with deterministic growth and low regeneration capacity during the adult stage, leading to a strong taxonomic bias in the study of ageing. Recent studies have highlighted that senescence could indeed display highly variable trajectories that correlate with species life-history traits. Slow life histories and indeterminate growth seem to be associated with weak and late senescence. Furthermore, high regenerative abilities could lead to negligible senescence in ectotherms. However, demographic data for species that would allow testing of these hypotheses are scarce. Here, we investigated senescence patterns in 'true salamanders' from the western Palaearctic. Our results showed that salamanders have slow life histories and that they experience negligible senescence. This pattern was consistent at both intra- and interspecific levels, suggesting that the absence of senescence may be a phylogenetically conserved trait. The regenerative capacities of salamanders, in combination with other physiological and developmental features such as an indeterminate growth and a low metabolic rate, probably explain why these small ectotherms have lifespans similar to that of large endotherms and, in contrast with most amniotes, undergo negligible senescence. Our study seriously challenges the idea that senescence is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the tree of life.

Early onset of breeding season in the green toad Bufotes viridis in Western Poland

Amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes such as climate warming. Here, we report unusually early oviposition in two spatially isolated urban subpopulations of the green toad Bufotesviridis Laurenti, 1768, in Poznań, Western Poland. To our knowledge, we report the earliest breeding date for Central and Eastern Europe, for areas of similar latitude. We ascribe the early onset of B.viridis reproduction to an exceptionally warm spring in Western Poland in 2017. B.viridis shows flexibility in the timing of reproductive activity, however, shifts in breeding phenology may have both beneficial and detrimental population consequences.

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λ_s ) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λ_s will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

Multistate occupancy modeling improves understanding of amphibian breeding dynamics in the Greater Yellowstone Area

Discerning the determinants of species occurrence across landscapes is fundamental to their conservation and management. In spatially and climatologically complex landscapes, explaining the dynamics of occurrence can lead to improved understanding of short- vs. long-term trends and offer novel insight on local vs. regional change. We examined the changes in occupancy for two species of anurans with different life histories over a decade using hundreds of wetland sites in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks. To account for the joint dynamics of wetland drying and amphibian breeding, we adopted a multistate occupancy model as a means to investigate mechanistic relationships of observed occurrence patterns with climatological drivers of wetland hydrologic variability. This approach allowed us to decompose occupancy dynamics into habitat changes caused by wetland drying and amphibian breeding activity, conditional on available water and previous breeding state. Over our 10-yr time series, we observed considerable variability in climate drivers and the proportion of dry wetlands. Boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) were more responsive to changes in wetland inundation status than Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris), as indicated by higher breeding colonization probabilities under favorable (wet) conditions. Both species had high probabilities of breeding persistence in permanently inundated wetlands with prior breeding. Despite the absence of multi-year drought in our time series, mechanistic relationships described here offer insights on how future climate variation may result in reduced and/or shifted occurrence patterns for pond-breeding anurans in the Greater Yellowstone Area. Further, our modeling approach may prove valuable in evaluating determinants of occurrence for other species that are dependent on wetlands or other dynamic habitats.

Resilience to climate variation in a spatially structured amphibian population

Understanding the impact of weather fluctuations on demographic parameters is of crucial interest to biodiversity research in a context of global climate change. Amphibians are valuable candidates for investigating this topic due to their strong physiological dependence on water availability and temperature. In this study, we took advantage of data from a long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) monitoring program of a great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) population inhabiting a 12-pond archipelago in southeastern France. We investigated the interactions between vital rates (survival and recruitment), the internal structure of the population, and climatic variables both at a local and a regional (North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO) scale. Overall, we found a weak relationship between climatic variables and the survival of large-bodied newts. The only strong relationship was found to be a high NAO index during the post-breeding period, suggesting that dry, hot summers negatively impact survival. In terms of recruitment, the results indicated that hot weather during the activity period had delayed deleterious effects on adult recruitment two years later, suggesting high larval and juvenile mortality due to unsuitable growing conditions. Recruitment was also impacted by a high NAO index during the overwintering period preceding recruitment, suggesting that mild weather increases the mortality of juveniles, probably by enhancing the depletion of energy reserves without any possibility of refueling.

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Changing climate will impact species' ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Multi-year data from satellite- and ground-based sensors show details and scale matter in assessing climate's effects on wetland surface water, amphibians, and landscape conditions

Long-term, interdisciplinary studies of relations between climate and ecological conditions on wetland-upland landscapes have been lacking, especially studies integrated across scales meaningful for adaptive resource management. We collected data in situ at individual wetlands, and via satellite for surrounding 4-km² landscape blocks, to assess relations between annual weather dynamics, snow duration, phenology, wetland surface-water availability, amphibian presence and calling activity, greenness, and evapotranspiration in four U.S. conservation areas from 2008 to 2012. Amid recent decades of relatively warm growing seasons, 2012 and 2010 were the first and second warmest seasons, respectively, dating back to 1895. Accordingly, we observed the earliest starts of springtime biological activity during those two years. In all years, early-season amphibians first called soon after daily mean air temperatures were ≥ 0°C and snow had mostly melted. Similarly, satellite-based indicators suggested seasonal leaf-out happened soon after snowmelt and temperature thresholds for plant growth had occurred. Daily fluctuations in weather and water levels were related to amphibian calling activity, including decoupling the timing of the onset of calling at the start of season from the onset of calling events later in the season. Within-season variation in temperature and precipitation also was related to vegetation greenness and evapotranspiration, but more at monthly and seasonal scales. Wetland water levels were moderately to strongly associated with precipitation and early or intermittent wetland drying likely reduced amphibian reproduction success in some years, even though Pseudacris crucifer occupied sites at consistently high levels. Notably, satellite-based indicators of landscape water availability did not suggest such consequential, intra-seasonal variability in wetland surface-water availability. Our cross-disciplinary data show how temperature and precipitation interacted to affect key ecological relations and outcomes on our study landscapes. These results demonstrate the value of multi-year studies and the importance of scale for understanding actual climate-related effects in these areas.