Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires

Australian Black summer smoke signal on Antarctic aerosol collected between New Zealand and the Ross sea

Open biomass burning (BB) events are a well-known primary aerosol source, resulting in the emission of significant amount of gaseous and particulate matter and affecting Earth's radiation budget. The 2019-2020 summer, known as "Australian Black Summer", showed exceptional duration and intensity of seasonal wildfires, triggered by high temperatures and severe droughts. Since increasing megafires are predicted due to expected climate changes, it is critical to study the impact of BB aerosol on a large scale and evaluate related transport processes. In this study, five aerosol samples (total suspended particles with a diameter >1 μm) were collected during the XXXV Italian Expedition in Antarctica on board of the R/V Laura Bassi from 6th of January to February 16, 2020, along the sailing route from Lyttelton harbor (New Zealand) to Terra Nova Bay (Antarctica). Levoglucosan and its isomers have been analyzed as markers of BB, together with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), sucrose and alcohol sugars. Ionic species and carboxylic acids have been analyzed to support the identification of aerosol sources and its aging. Results showed high levoglucosan concentrations (325-1266 pg m-3) during the campaign, suggesting the widespread presence of smoke in the region, because of huge wildfire releases. Backward trajectories indicated the presence of long-range atmospheric transport from South America, probably carrying wildfires plume, in agreement with literature. Regional sources have been suggested for PAHs, particularly for 3-4 rings' compounds; monosaccharides, sucrose, arabitol, and mannitol were related to marine and biogenic contributions. In a warming climate scenario, more frequent and extensive wildfire episodes are expected in Australia, potentially altering albedo, aerosol radiative properties, and cloud interactions. Therefore, it is crucial to strengthens the investigations on the regional climatic effects of these events in Antarctica.

Wildfire risk management in the era of climate change

The August 8, 2023R Lahaina fire refocused attention on wildfires, public alerts, and emergency management. Wildfire risk is on the rise, precipitated through a combination of climate change, increased development in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Renewed emphasis is needed on emergency alerts and community evacuations. Land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Here, we propose a long-term strategy consisting of integrating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies, and we discuss new technologies and possible scientific breakthroughs.

Plant hydraulics at the heart of plant, crops and ecosystem functions in the face of climate change

Plant hydraulics is crucial for assessing the plants' capacity to extract and transport water from the soil up to their aerial organs. Along with their capacity to exchange water between plant compartments and regulate evaporation, hydraulic properties determine plant water relations, water status and susceptibility to pathogen attacks. Consequently, any variation in the hydraulic characteristics of plants is likely to significantly impact various mechanisms and processes related to plant growth, survival and production, as well as the risk of biotic attacks and forest fire behaviour. However, the integration of hydraulic traits into disciplines such as plant pathology, entomology, fire ecology or agriculture can be significantly improved. This review examines how plant hydraulics can provide new insights into our understanding of these processes, including modelling processes of vegetation dynamics, illuminating numerous perspectives for assessing the consequences of climate change on forest and agronomic systems, and addressing unanswered questions across multiple areas of knowledge.

Assessing the impact of fire on spiders through a global comparative analysis

In many regions fire regimes are changing due to anthropogenic factors. Understanding the responses of species to fire can help to develop predictive models and inform fire management decisions. Spiders are a diverse and ubiquitous group and can offer important insights into the impacts of fire on invertebrates and whether these depend on environmental factors, phylogenetic history or functional traits. We conducted phylogenetic comparative analyses of data from studies investigating the impacts of fire on spiders. We investigated whether fire affects spider abundance or presence and whether ecologically relevant traits or site-specific factors influence species' responses to fire. Although difficult to make broad generalizations about the impacts of fire due to variation in site- and fire-specific factors, we find evidence that short fire intervals may be a threat to some spiders, and that fire affects abundance and species compositions in forests relative to other vegetation types. Orb and sheet web weavers were also more likely to be absent after fire than ambush hunters, ground hunters and other hunters suggesting functional traits may affect responses. Finally, we show that analyses of published data can be used to detect broad-scale patterns and provide an alternative to traditional meta-analytical approaches.

A view to die for? Housing value, wildfire risk, and environmental amenities

Utilizing a unique database of residential real estate transactions, we examine the price change near the boundary of the Bushfire Prone Area (BPA), a planning zone indicating high wildfire risk, after experiencing a salient wildfire event in Australia from 2015 to 2016. While the properties within the BPA are valued more by 1.6%-1.9% in general, home buyers pay less for the properties in the BPA by 0.9%-1.7% after experiencing a salient wildfire event compared with the properties located outside of the BPA. Moreover, the properties in the BPA with greater environmental amenities are more resilient to the impact of wildfire risk salience than the rest BPA, necessitating an analysis of the role of environmental amenities in the research on wildfire risk in the housing market context.

How to prioritize species recovery after a megafire

Due to climate change, megafires are increasingly common and have sudden, extensive impacts on many species over vast areas, leaving decision makers uncertain about how best to prioritize recovery. We devised a decision-support framework to prioritize conservation actions to improve species outcomes immediately after a megafire. Complementary locations are selected to extend recovery actions across all fire-affected species' habitats. We applied our method to areas burned in the 2019-2020 Australian megafires and assessed its conservation advantages by comparing our results with outcomes of a site-richness approach (i.e., identifying areas that cost-effectively recover the most species in any one location). We found that 290 threatened species were likely severely affected and will require immediate conservation action to prevent population declines and possible extirpation. We identified 179 subregions, mostly in southeastern Australia, that are key locations to extend actions that benefit multiple species. Cost savings were over AU$300 million to reduce 95% of threats across all species. Our complementarity-based prioritization also spread postfire management actions across a wider proportion of the study area compared with the site-richness method (43% vs. 37% of the landscape managed, respectively) and put more of each species' range under management (average 90% vs. 79% of every species' habitat managed). In addition to wildfire response, our framework can be used to prioritize conservation actions that will best mitigate threats affecting species following other extreme environmental events (e.g., floods and drought).

Tipping Points and Changes in Australian Climate and Extremes

Systematic changes, since the beginning of the 20th century, in average and extreme Australian rainfall and temperatures indicate that Southern Australian climate has undergone regime transitions into a drier and warmer state. South-west Western Australia (SWWA) experienced the most dramatic drying trend with average streamflow into Perth dams, in the last decade, just 20% of that before the 1960s and extreme, decile 10, rainfall reduced to near zero. In south-eastern Australia (SEA) systematic decreases in average and extreme cool season rainfall became evident in the late 1990s with a halving of the area experiencing average decile 10 rainfall in the early 21st century compared with that for the 20th century. The shift in annual surface temperatures over SWWA and SEA, and indeed for Australia as a whole, has occurred primarily over the last 20 years with the percentage area experiencing extreme maximum temperatures in decile 10 increasing to an average of more than 45% since the start of the 21st century compared with less than 3% for the 20th century mean. Average maximum temperatures have also increased by circa 1 °C for SWWA and SEA over the last 20 years. The climate changes in rainfall an d temperatures are associated with atmospheric circulation shifts.

Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards

Understanding and modelling future risks from natural hazards is becoming increasingly crucial as the climate changes, human population grows, asset wealth accumulates, and societies become more urbanised and interconnected. This need is recognised by the 2015-2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which emphasises the importance of preparing for the disasters that our world may face tomorrow through strategies/policies that aim to minimise uncontrolled development in hazardous areas. While the vast majority of natural-hazard risk-assessment frameworks have so far focused on static impacts associated with current conditions and/or are influenced by historical context, some authors have sought to provide decision makers with risk-quantification approaches that can be used to cultivate a sustainable future. This Review documents these latter efforts, explicitly examining work that has modelled and quantified the individual components that comprise tomorrow's risk, i.e., future natural hazards affected by climate change, future exposure (e.g., in terms of population, land use, and the built environment), and the evolving physical vulnerabilities of the world's infrastructure. We end with a discussion on the challenges faced by modellers in determining the risks that tomorrow's world may face from natural hazards, and the constraints these place on the decision-making abilities of relevant stakeholders.

Accelerated shifts in terrestrial life zones under rapid climate change

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones-distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad-scale ecosystem types-is limited. To address this gap, we used high-resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901-1920), contemporary (1979-2013), and future (2061-2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km² (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km² (42.6% of land) under "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social-ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.

Earth, Wind, Fire, and Pollution: Aerosol Nutrient Sources and Impacts on Ocean Biogeochemistry

A key Earth system science question is the role of atmospheric deposition in supplying vital nutrients to the phytoplankton that form the base of marine food webs. Industrial and vehicular pollution, wildfires, volcanoes, biogenic debris, and desert dust all carry nutrients within their plumes throughout the globe. In remote ocean ecosystems, aerosol deposition represents an essential new source of nutrients for primary production. The large spatiotemporal variability in aerosols from myriad sources combined with the differential responses of marine biota to changing fluxes makes it crucially important to understand where, when, and how much nutrients from the atmosphere enter marine ecosystems. This review brings together existing literature, experimental evidence of impacts, and new atmospheric nutrient observations that can be compared with atmospheric and ocean biogeochemistry modeling. We evaluate the contribution and spatiotemporal variability of nutrient-bearing aerosols from desert dust, wildfire, volcanic, and anthropogenic sources, including the organic component, deposition fluxes, and oceanic impacts.

Indigenous impacts on north Australian savanna fire regimes over the Holocene

Fire is an essential component of tropical savannas, driving key ecological feedbacks and functions. Indigenous manipulation of fire has been practiced for tens of millennia in Australian savannas, and there is a renewed interest in understanding the effects of anthropogenic burning on savanna systems. However, separating the impacts of natural and human fire regimes on millennial timescales remains difficult. Here we show using palynological and isotope geochemical proxy records from a rare permanent water body in Northern Australia that vegetation, climate, and fire dynamics were intimately linked over the early to mid-Holocene. As the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensified during the late Holocene, a decoupling occurred between fire intensity and frequency, landscape vegetation, and the source of vegetation burnt. We infer from this decoupling, that indigenous fire management began or intensified at around 3 cal kyr BP, possibly as a response to ENSO related climate variability. Indigenous fire management reduced fire intensity and targeted understory tropical grasses, enabling woody thickening to continue in a drying climate.

Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change

Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia's forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change.

Using 3D geometric morphometrics to aid taxonomic and ecological understanding of a recent speciation event within a small Australian marsupial (Antechinus: Dasyuridae)

Taxonomic distinction of species forms the foundation of biodiversity assessments and conservation priorities. However, traditional morphological and/or genetics-based taxonomic assessments frequently miss the opportunity of elaborating on the ecological and functional context of species diversification. Here, we used 3D geometric morphometrics of the cranium to improve taxonomic differentiation and add ecomorphological characterization of a young cryptic divergence within the carnivorous marsupial genus Antechinus. Specifically, we used 168 museum specimens to characterize the recently proposed clades A. stuartii ‘south’, A. stuartii ‘north’ and A. subtropicus. Beyond slight differences attributable to overall size (and, therefore, not necessarily diagnostic), we also found clear allometry-independent shape variation. This allowed us to define new, easily measured diagnostic traits in the palate, which differentiate the three clades. Contrary to previous suggestions, we found no support for a latitudinal gradient as causing the differentiation between the clades. However, skull shape co-varied with temperature and precipitation seasonality, suggesting that the clades may be adapted to environmental variables that are likely to be impacted by climate change. Our study demonstrates the use of 3D geometric morphometrics to improve taxonomic diagnosis of cryptic mammalian species, while providing perspectives on the adaptive origins and potential future threats of mammalian diversity.

Synergistic effects of a severe drought and fire on platypuses

The strong inter-dependence between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, mediated by the character of vegetation and landscapes, can have significant impacts to freshwater species. A changing climate towards hotter and drier climates is already increasing fire frequencies and severity around the world. The platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) is an iconic freshwater Australia species, facing increasing threats since European colonisation and with a distribution which coincides with fire prone areas. While some evidence suggest platypuses are resilience to fires, the combination of severe wildfires and reduced water availability may significantly impact platypus populations. In this short communication we investigated the effects of fire on platypus populations in two rivers, following an extreme drought, comparing burnt and unburnt in adjacent river catchments, with similar habitat and geomorphology. Findings suggests significantly low platypus numbers in burned sites compared to those on the unburnt river, as well as to known densities across the species' range. Whether the fires directly impacted platypuses remains undetermined but the timing of the fires as well as an extreme drought likely impacted recruitment as we did not record any juveniles on both rivers. Platypuses are increasingly under threat from direct and indirect human developments across much of their range and increased frequency and severity of fires and droughts will further strain the viability of platypus populations, particularly in small streams more likely to dry out. Improving the resilience of platypus populations and their freshwater environments to both droughts and fires needs to become a priority.

Forest Fires in Madeira Island and the Fire Weather Created by Orographic Effects

Understanding the effects of weather and topography on fire spread in specific contexts, such as oceanic islands, is critical for supporting fire prevention and suppression strategies. In this study, we analyse the atmospheric conditions associated with historical forest fires that have occurred over complex terrain in Madeira Island, Portugal. The atmospheric Meso-NH model was used to identify the mesoscale environment during three forest fires events. The model was configured into two nested horizontal domains, the outer domain at 2.5 km resolution and the inner domain at 500 m. The paper brings a comprehensive analysis on the factors favouring the evolution of significant large fires occurring in Madeira Island in August 2010, July 2012 and August 2016. These fire events were selected because they are characterized by their large size (between 324.99 ha and 7691.67 ha) that expanded in a short-time period, threatening people and property in the wildland-urban interfaces. The study highlights that local terrain produce orographic effects that enhance the fire danger over the southern slope during typical summer atmospheric conditions.

Compositional Changes in Grapes and Leaves as a Consequence of Smoke Exposure of Vineyards from Multiple Bushfires across a Ripening Season

The negative effects of smoke exposure of grapes in vineyards that are close to harvest are well documented. Volatile phenols in smoke from forest and grass fires can contaminate berries and, upon uptake, are readily converted into a range of glycosylated grape metabolites. These phenolic glycosides and corresponding volatile phenols are extracted into the must and carried through the winemaking process, leading to wines with overtly smoky aromas and flavours. As a result, smoke exposure of grapes can cause significant quality defects in wine, and may render grapes and wine unfit for sale, with substantial negative economic impacts. Until now, however, very little has been known about the impact on grape composition of smoke exposure very early in the season, when grapes are small, hard and green, as occurred with many fires in the 2019–20 Australian grapegrowing season. This research summarises the compositional consequences of cumulative bushfire smoke exposure of grapes and leaves, it establishes detailed profiles of volatile phenols and phenolic glycosides in samples from six commercial Chardonnay and Shiraz blocks throughout berry ripening and examines the observed effects in the context of vineyard location and timing of smoke exposure. In addition, we demonstrate the potential of some phenolic glycosides in leaves to serve as additional biomarkers for smoke exposure of vineyards.

Characterization of Stratospheric Smoke Particles over the Antarctica by Remote Sensing Instruments

Australian smoke from the extraordinary biomass burning in December 2019 was observed over Marambio, Antarctica from the 7th to the 10th January, 2020. The smoke plume was transported thousands of kilometers over the Pacific Ocean, and reached the Antarctic Peninsula at a hight of 13 km, as determined by satellite lidar observations. The proposed origin and trajectory of the aerosol are supported by back-trajectory model analyses. Ground-based Sun–Sky–Moon photometer belonging to the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measured aerosol optical depth (500 nm wavelength) above 0.3, which is unprecedented for the site. Inversion of sky radiances provide the optical and microphysical properties of the smoke over Marambio. The AERONET data near the fire origin in Tumbarumba, Australia, was used to investigate the changes in the measured aerosol properties after transport and ageing. The analysis shows an increase in the fine mode particle radius and a reduction in absorption (increase in the single scattering albedo). The available long-term AOD data series at Marambio suggests that smoke particles could have remained over Antarctica for several weeks after the analyzed event.

Mapping the effectiveness of nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation

Nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate change currently have considerable political traction. However, national intentions to deploy NbS have yet to be fully translated into evidence-based targets and action on the ground. To enable NbS policy and practice to be better informed by science, we produced the first global systematic map of evidence on the effectiveness of nature-based interventions for addressing the impacts of climate change and hydrometeorological hazards on people. Most of the interventions in natural or semi-natural ecosystems were reported to have ameliorated adverse climate impacts. Conversely, interventions involving created ecosystems (e.g., afforestation) were associated with trade-offs; such studies primarily reported reduced soil erosion or increased vegetation cover but lower water availability, although this evidence was geographically restricted. Overall, studies reported more synergies than trade-offs between reduced climate impacts and broader ecological, social, and climate change mitigation outcomes. In addition, nature-based interventions were most often shown to be as effective or more so than alternative interventions for addressing climate impacts. However, there were substantial gaps in the evidence base. Notably, there were few studies of the cost-effectiveness of interventions compared to alternatives and few integrated assessments considering broader social and ecological outcomes. There was also a bias in evidence toward the Global North, despite communities in the Global South being generally more vulnerable to climate impacts. To build resilience to climate change worldwide, it is imperative that we protect and harness the benefits that nature can provide, which can only be done effectively if informed by a strengthened evidence base.

Saharan Hot and Dry Sirocco Winds Drive Extreme Fire Events in Mediterranean Tunisia (North Africa)

With hot and dry summers, the Mediterranean basin is affected by recurrent fires. While drought is the major driver of the seasonal and inter-annual fire distribution in its northern and mildest climate conditions, some extreme fire events are also linked to extreme winds or heat waves. The southern part of the Mediterranean basin is located at the driest range of the Mediterranean bioclimate and is influenced by Saharan atmospheric circulations, leading to extreme hot and dry episodes, called Sirocco, and potentially acting as a major contributor to fire hazard. The recently created fire database for Tunisia was used to investigate the ±10-day pre- and post-fire timeframe of daily weather conditions associated with fire events over the 1985–2006 period. Positive anomalies in minimum and maximum temperatures, negative anomalies in air relative humidity, and a preferential south-eastern wind during fire events were identified, which were characteristic of Sirocco winds. +7 °C anomalies in air temperature and −30% in relative air humidity were the critical thresholds for the most extreme fire conditions. In addition, meteorological anomalies started two days before fire events and lasted for three days after for large fires >400 ha, which suggests that the duration of the Sirocco event is linked with fire duration and final fire size. Lastly, the yearly number of intense Sirocco events better explained the inter-annual variability of burned area over the 1950–2006 period than summer drought based on Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) indices.

Effects of Climatic Warming and Wildfires on Recent Vegetation Changes in the Lake Baikal Basin

The vegetation changes in the area of the Russian part of the Lake Baikal water basin for the period 2010–2018 were investigated using MCD12C1 land cover. The decline in swamp systems area began in 2012 and continued until 2015, after which it partially recovered during the heavy rain season in 2018. During the period of 2010–2018, the area covered by forests did not exceed 20.3% of the Baikal basin of the total portion of the Baikal basin under study. Deforestation began in 2013 and continued until 2017. Over 2013–2018, the forest level decreased by 12.1% compared to the forest state in 2013. The analysis of summer rainfalls and aridity indexes was performed by using CRU TS and GPCC climatic datasets. It is shown that the interannual variations of precipitation and aridity changes are determined by the variability of the global circulation of moist air masses. The MCD64A1 (burned area) and MCD14ML (active fires) MODIS products were used for investigation of the influence of wildfires on vegetation changes. The spatial hotspot distributions and burned areas in general correspond to aridity zones, but they cannot explain the 20-fold increase in the number of wildfires. Most of the hotspot locations are away from settlements, roads, and loggings, in difficult-to-access mountainous areas, as well as in the low-inhabited areas of Siberia. We assume that the nature of such ignitions includes dry thunderstorms, pyrocumulus lightning, or remote impact.