Incorporating false negative tests in epidemiological models for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and reconciling with seroprevalence estimates

Uncovering associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 Severity: A polygenic risk score approach across three large biobanks

OBJECTIVE

To overcome the limitations associated with the collection and curation of COVID-19 outcome data in biobanks, this study proposes the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) as reliable proxies of COVID-19 severity across three large biobanks: the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI), UK Biobank (UKB), and NIH All of Us. The goal is to identify associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 severity.

METHODS

Drawing on a sample of more than 500,000 individuals from the three biobanks, we conducted a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify associations between a PRS for COVID-19 severity, derived from a genome-wide association study on COVID-19 hospitalization, and clinical pre-existing, pre-pandemic phenotypes. We performed cohort-specific PRS PheWAS and a subsequent fixed-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The current study uncovered 23 pre-existing conditions significantly associated with the COVID-19 severity PRS in cohort-specific analyses, of which 21 were observed in the UKB cohort and two in the MGI cohort. The meta-analysis yielded 27 significant phenotypes predominantly related to obesity, metabolic disorders, and cardiovascular conditions. After adjusting for body mass index, several clinical phenotypes, such as hypercholesterolemia and gastrointestinal disorders, remained associated with an increased risk of hospitalization following COVID-19 infection.

CONCLUSION

By employing PRS as a proxy for COVID-19 severity, we corroborated known risk factors and identified novel associations between pre-existing clinical phenotypes and COVID-19 severity. Our study highlights the potential value of using PRS when actual outcome data may be limited or inadequate for robust analyses.

Estimating the number of probable new SARS-CoV-2 infections among tested subjects from the number of confirmed cases

OBJECTIVES

In most African countries, confirmed COVID-19 case counts underestimate the number of new SARS-CoV-2 infection cases. We propose a multiplying factor to approximate the number of biologically probable new infections from the number of confirmed cases.

METHODS

Each of the first thousand suspect (or alert) cases recorded in South Kivu (DRC) between 29 March and 29 November 2020 underwent a RT-PCR test and an IgM and IgG serology. A latent class model and a Bayesian inference method were used to estimate (i) the incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection using RT-PCR and IgM test results, (ii) the prevalence using RT-PCR, IgM and IgG test results; and, (iii) the multiplying factor (ratio of the incidence proportion on the proportion of confirmed -RT-PCR+- cases).

RESULTS

Among 933 alert cases with complete data, 218 (23%) were RT-PCR+; 434 (47%) IgM+; 464 (~ 50%) RT-PCR+, IgM+, or both; and 647 (69%) either IgG + or IgM+. The incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated at 58% (95% credibility interval: 51.8-64), its prevalence at 72.83% (65.68-77.89), and the multiplying factor at 2.42 (1.95-3.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In monitoring the pandemic dynamics, the number of biologically probable cases is also useful. The multiplying factor helps approximating it.

An eco-epidemic model for assessing the application of integrated pest management strategies

Mathematical models have become indispensable tools for analyzing pest control strategies. However, in the realm of pest control studies, the consideration of a plant population being affected by a model that incorporates pests, natural enemies and disease in the pest population has been relatively limited. Therefore, this paper aims to formulate and investigate a hybrid impulsive eco-epidemic model that incorporates disease in the pest population. Initially, we examine the existence and stability of the pest-eradication periodic solution. Subsequently, to explore the impact of chemical and biological control methods, we propose an updated eco-epidemic model that incorporates varying frequencies of pesticide sprays and the release of both infected pests and natural enemies for pest control. We establish threshold values for the susceptible pest eradication periodic solution under different scenarios, illustrating the global attractiveness of this solution. Finally, we discuss the obtained results and suggest potential avenues for future research in this field.

Epidemic Management via Imperfect Testing: A Multi-criterial Perspective

Diagnostic testing may represent a key component in response to an ongoing epidemic, especially if coupled with containment measures, such as mandatory self-isolation, aimed to prevent infectious individuals from furthering onward transmission while allowing non-infected individuals to go about their lives. However, by its own nature as an imperfect binary classifier, testing can produce false negative or false positive results. Both types of misclassification are problematic: while the former may exacerbate the spread of disease, the latter may result in unnecessary isolation mandates and socioeconomic burden. As clearly shown by the COVID-19 pandemic, achieving adequate protection for both people and society is a crucial, yet highly challenging task that needs to be addressed in managing large-scale epidemic transmission. To explore the trade-offs imposed by diagnostic testing and mandatory isolation as tools for epidemic containment, here we present an extension of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model that accounts for an additional stratification of the population based on the results of diagnostic testing. We show that, under suitable epidemiological conditions, a careful assessment of testing and isolation protocols can contribute to epidemic containment, even in the presence of false negative/positive results. Also, using a multi-criterial framework, we identify simple, yet Pareto-efficient testing and isolation scenarios that can minimize case count, isolation time, or seek a trade-off solution for these often contrasting epidemic management objectives.

Seroprevalence of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Chattogram Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh

Seroprevalence studies of COVID-19 are used to assess the degree of undetected transmission in the community and different groups such as health care workers (HCWs) are deemed vulnerable due to their workplace hazards. The present study estimated the seroprevalence and quantified the titer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody (IgG) and its association with different factors. This cross-sectional study observed HCWs, in indoor and outdoor patients (non-COVID-19) and garment workers in the Chattogram metropolitan area (CMA, N = 748) from six hospitals and two garment factories. Qualitative and quantitative ELISA were used to identify and quantify antibodies (IgG) in the serum samples. Descriptive, univariable, and multivariable statistical analysis were performed. Overall seroprevalence and among HCWs, in indoor and outdoor patients, and garment workers were 66.99% (95% CI: 63.40-70.40%), 68.99% (95% CI: 63.8-73.7%), 81.37% (95% CI: 74.7-86.7%), and 50.56% (95% CI: 43.5-57.5%), respectively. Seroprevalence and mean titer was 44.47% (95% CI: 38.6-50.4%) and 53.71 DU/mL in the non-vaccinated population, respectively, while it was higher in the population who received a first dose (61.66%, 95% CI: 54.8-68.0%, 159.08 DU/mL) and both doses (100%, 95% CI: 98.4-100%, 255.46 DU/mL). This study emphasizes the role of vaccine in antibody production; the second dose of vaccine significantly increased the seroprevalence and titer and both were low in natural infection.

Modeling Global COVID-19 Dissemination Data After the Emergence of Omicron Variant Using Multipronged Approaches

The COVID-19 pandemic has followed a wave pattern, with an increase in new cases followed by a drop. Several factors influence this pattern, including vaccination efficacy over time, human behavior, infection management measures used, emergence of novel variants of SARS-CoV-2, and the size of the vulnerable population, among others. In this study, we used three statistical approaches to analyze COVID-19 dissemination data collected from 15 November 2021 to 09 January 2022 for the prediction of further spread and to determine the behavior of the pandemic in the top 12 countries by infection incidence at that time, namely Distribution Fitting, Time Series Modeling, and Epidemiological Modeling. We fitted various theoretical distributions to data sets from different countries, yielding the best-fit distribution for the most accurate interpretation and prediction of the disease spread. Several time series models were fitted to the data of the studied countries using the expert modeler to obtain the best fitting models. Finally, we estimated the infection rates (β), recovery rates (γ), and Basic Reproduction Numbers ([Formula: see text]) for the countries using the compartmental model SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered). Following more research on this, our findings may be validated and interpreted. Therefore, the most refined information may be used to develop the best policies for breaking the disease's chain of transmission by implementing suppressive measures such as vaccination, which will also aid in the prevention of future waves of infection.

The coupled dynamics of information dissemination and SEIR-based epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) threatens the health and safety of all humanity. This disease has a prominent feature: the presymptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers can spread the disease. It is crucial to estimate the impact of this undetected transmission on epidemic outbreaks. Currently, disease-related information has been widely disseminated by the mass media. To investigate the impact of both individuals and mass media information dissemination on the epidemic spreading, we establish a new UAU-SEIR (Unaware-Aware-Unaware-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model with mass media on two-layer multiplex networks. In the model, E-state individuals denote asymptomatic infections, and a single node connecting to all individuals denotes the mass media. In this work, we use the Microscopic Markovian Chain Approach (MMCA) to derive the epidemic threshold. Comparing the MMCA theoretical results with Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, we find that the MMCA has a good consistency with MC simulations. In addition, we also analyze the impact of model parameters on epidemic spreading and epidemic threshold. The results show that reducing the proportion of asymptomatic infections, accelerating the dissemination of information between individuals and the dissemination of information via the mass media can effectively inhibit the epidemic spreading and raise the epidemic threshold.

COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Through the Lens of Modeling

We reflect on and review India's COVID-19 pandemic response through the lens of modeling and data. The lessons learned from the Indian context may be beneficial for other countries.