The demographic and geographic impact of the COVID pandemic in Bulgaria and Eastern Europe in 2020

Clinical Course and Mortality Predictors in Adult Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Infection-A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and Objectives: Bulgaria had the highest mortality rate of COVID-19 in Europe and the second highest in the world based on statistical data. This study aimed to determine the mortality predictors in 306 adult patients with COVID-19 infection, treated at the COVID-19 Ward of St. George University Hospital in Plovdiv, Bulgaria in the period of August 2021-April 2022. Materials and Methods: All admitted and treated patients had a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2. They were assigned in three groups based on the severity rating scale published in NIH COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines by Stat Pearls Publishing, 2022. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters and pre-existing comorbidities were investigated. Parametric and non-parametric methods were used for statistics. Logistic regression was applied for parameters significantly associated with mortality. Results: Data showed that demographic indicators were not significantly associated with poorer outcome. Among comorbidities, cardiovascular, chronic pulmonary and endocrine disorders were found to be related to poor survival rates (p = 0.003, p = 0.003 and p = 0.017 resp.) Clinical symptoms, such as sore throat, dry or productive cough and breathlessness, were determinants of poor outcome (p = 0.027, p = 0.029, p = 0.004 and p = 0.002 resp.). Laboratory parameters linked to mortality were elevated d-dimers (p = 0.015), ferritin (p = 0.009) and creatinine (p = 0.038). p02 < 50 and saturation < 90 also indicated a higher risk of death (p = 0.006 and p = 0021). Conclusions: Logistic regression showed that each stage of disease severity increased the risk of death 3.6 times, chronic pulmonary disorders increased it by 4.1, endocrine by 2.4 and dyspnea by 3.1 times.

Excess mortality during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) in the Netherlands: Overall and across demographic subgroups

Objectives

The overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality can be estimated by the assessment of excess deaths from all causes because the reported number of deaths due to COVID-19 do not accurately reflect the true death toll. We assessed excess mortality in 2020 and 2021 in the Netherlands.

Methods

All analyses were performed on data from comprehensive nationwide registers provided by Statistics Netherlands (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek), including demographic characteristics and mortality. All-cause mortality incidence rates were calculated per calendar month and compared against COVID-19 infections and preventive strategies. The all-cause mortality incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated per calendar year using Poisson regression (overall and for subgroups).

Results

Compared with predicted mortality based on 2019 rates, the overall excess mortality was 8.9% (IRR 1.089, 95% CI 1.081-1.097) in 2020 and 8.5% (IRR 1.085, 95% CI 1.077-1.092) in 2021. Relative excess mortality was higher for men, people with low household income, first-generation immigrants, and individuals living in extremely urbanized areas. In 2020, excess mortality was highest in age groups above 75 years (over 10%.); in 2021, it was clearly present even in the 20-39 years age group (6.6%).

Conclusions

Our results quantify excess mortality during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. We show that the extent of excess mortality varies considerably across demographic groups, which may help in identifying target groups for preventive strategies during future health crises.

Large and unequal life expectancy declines during the COVID-19 pandemic in India in 2020

Global population health during the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly understood because of weak mortality monitoring in low- and middle-income countries. High-quality survey data on 765,180 individuals, representative of one-fourth of India's population, uncover patterns missed by incomplete vital statistics and disease surveillance. Compared to 2019, life expectancy at birth was 2.6 years lower and mortality was 17% higher in 2020, implying 1.19 million excess deaths in 2020. Life expectancy declines in India were larger and had a younger age profile than in high-income countries. Increases in mortality were greater than expected based on observed seroprevalence and international infection fatality rates, most prominently among the youngest and older age groups. In contrast to global patterns, females in India experienced a life expectancy decline that was 1 year larger than losses for males. Marginalized social groups experienced greater declines than the most privileged social group. These findings uncover large and unequal mortality impacts during the pandemic in the world's most populous country.

Unrecognised COVID-19 deaths in central Europe: The importance of cause-of-death certification for the COVID-19 burden assessment

OBJECTIVE

In Central Europe, the increase in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic exceeded the number of deaths registered due to coronavirus disease. Excess deaths reported to causes other than COVID-19 may have been due to unrecognised coronavirus disease, the interruptions in care in the overwhelmed health care facilities, or socioeconomic effects of the pandemic and lockdowns. Death certificates provide exhaustive medical information, allowing us to assess the extent of unrecognised COVID-19 deaths.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from 187,300 death certificates with a COVID-19 mention from Austria, Bavaria (Germany), Czechia, Lithuania and Poland, 2020-2021, was used. The two step analysis uses Cause of Death Association Indicators (CDAIs) and Contributing CDAIs to identify and measure the statistical strength of associations between COVID-19 and all other medical mentions.

RESULTS

15,700 deaths were reported with COVID-19 only as a contributing condition (comorbidity). In three cases out of four, a typical, statistically significant coronavirus complication or pre-existing condition was registered as the underlying causes of death. In Austria, Bavaria, Czechia and Lithuania the scale of COVID-19 mortality would have been up to 18-27% higher had COVID-19 been coded as the underlying cause of death. Unrecognised coronavirus deaths were equivalent to the entire surplus of excess mortality beyond registered COVID-19 deaths in Austria and the Czech Republic, and its large proportion (25-31%) in Lithuania and Bavaria.

CONCLUSIONS

Death certificates with typical coronavirus complications or comorbidities as the underlying causes of death and contributing COVID-19 mentions were plausibly unrecognized coronavirus deaths.

SARS-CoV-2 testing, positivity, and factors associated with COVID-19 among people with HIV across Europe in the multinational EuroSIDA cohort

BACKGROUND

Although people with HIV might be at risk of severe outcomes from infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus 2019 [COVID-19]), regional and temporal differences in SARS-CoV-2 testing in people with HIV across Europe have not been previously described.

METHODS

We described the proportions of testing, positive test results, and hospitalizations due to COVID-19 between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 in the EuroSIDA cohort and the factors associated with being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and with ever testing positive.

RESULTS

Of 9012 participants, 2270 (25.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 24.3-26.1) had a SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test during the study period (range: 38.3% in Northern to 14.6% in Central-Eastern Europe). People from Northern Europe, women, those aged <40 years, those with CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm3, and those with previous cardiovascular disease or malignancy were significantly more likely to have been tested, as were people with HIV in 2021 compared with those in 2020. Overall, 390 people with HIV (4.3%, 95% CI 3.9-4.8) tested positive (range: 2.6% in Northern to 7.1% in Southern Europe), and the odds of testing positive were higher in all regions than in Northern Europe and in 2021 than in 2020. In total, 64 people with HIV (0.7%, 95% CI 0.6-0.9) were hospitalized, of whom 12 died. Compared with 2020, the odds of positive testing decreased in all regions in 2021, and the associations with cardiovascular disease, malignancy, and use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate disappeared in 2021. Among study participants, 58.9% received a COVID-19 vaccine (range: 72.0% in Southern to 14.8% in Eastern Europe).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed large heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity and a low proportion of hospital admissions and deaths across the regions of Europe.

Premature Mortality Excess Rates Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comparative Analysis Conducted in Bihor County, Romania

BACKGROUND

Estimating the excess of premature deaths (before the age of 75 years) and Potential Years of Life Lost allows ranking causes of death as an expression of the burden of disease in a population. We statistically analysed the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on excess premature mortality in the total population and specifically, by sexes, compared to the pre-pandemic period, through Potential Years of Life Lost.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

In this retrospective descriptive observational study, we counted excess of premature mortality in the years 2020, 2021, and 2022 by cause of death (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, digestive diseases, injury, COVID-19, and other causes) and by sexes compared to the period average from 2017-2019, based on the deaths registered in Bihor County (48,948 people).

RESULTS

Premature deaths due to COVID-19 (1,745 people of both sexes) contributed 71.3% to excess mortality, the population being similar for both sexes (71.4% in men and 71.2% in women). The Potential Years of Life Lost/death due to COVID-19 was 11.84 years for both sexes (11.76 years in men and 12.02 years in women). Potential Years of Life Lost/all-cause heath was lower during the pandemic (13.42 years for both sexes, 14.06 years for men and 12.32 years for women) compared to the pre-pandemic period (14.6 years for both sexes, 15.1 years for men and 13.5 years for women).

CONCLUSIONS

The excess of premature mortality and decreased Potential Years of Life Lost/death during the pandemic, shows an increase in the proportion of deaths at ages closer to the established limit for premature mortality (75 years) compared to the pre-pandemic period.

Genomic Epidemiology and Lineage Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria: Insights from a Three-Year Pandemic Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has brought about significant challenges worldwide. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the genomic epidemiology and lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria over a three-year period. Through extensive genomic sequencing and data analysis, we investigated the evolution of the virus, the emergence of variants of concern (VOCs), and their impact on the country's pandemic trajectory. We also assessed the relationship between viral diversity and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Bulgaria. Our findings shed light on the temporal and spatial distribution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and provide crucial insights into the dynamics of the pandemic in the country. The interplay between international travel and viral transmission plays a significant role in the emergence and dissemination of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. The observed proportions of exportation to various continents provide insights into the potential pathways through which these lineages spread globally. Understanding the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria is essential for formulating targeted public health strategies, enhancing vaccination efforts, and effectively managing future outbreaks.

Economic Burden of Cervical Cancer in Bulgaria

Bulgaria is among the European Union (EU) countries with the highest burden of cervical cancers and life expectancy below the EU average. The majority of cervical cancer cases (more than 95%) are caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV). The aim of this retrospective, cost of illness study is to identify direct healthcare costs of cervical cancer in Bulgaria from the payer perspective and to calculate indirect costs and the associated years of life lost. Costs data were sourced from the National Health Insurance Fund from January 2018 to December 2020. Years of life lost were calculated based on the country and gender-specific life expectancy. Indirect costs due to productivity loss were calculated using the human capital approach. The total treatment costs for 3540 patients with cervical cancer are EUR 5,743,657 (2018), EUR 6,377,508 (2019), and EUR 6,751,182 (2020). The costs associated with drug acquisition and administration accounted for the majority (63%) of total healthcare costs followed by hospital management costs (14%). An estimated total of 20,446 years of life were lost due to cervical cancer for the period 2018-2020. The costs of productivity losses are estimated at EUR 7,578,014. Our study showed that the economic burden of cervical cancer in Bulgaria is substantial. Focus on cervical cancer prevention via vaccination against the human papillomavirus, timely screening, early diagnosis, and higher vaccine coverage rates could reduce its economic burden in Bulgaria.

The Prevalence of COVID-19 in Europe by the End of November 2022: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background The world has been affected differently by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and Europe reaped the largest number of cases and deaths. Moreover, COVID-19 statistics are dynamic. Objectives The current study aimed to use COVID-19 data to examine the COVID-19 prevalence in Europe by the end of November 2022 and compare the findings globally. Methods The primary data on COVID-19 for each European country were obtained from the "Worldometer" website. The data include the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 per country, the cumulative number of deaths, the total number of tests performed, the number of cases per million population, the number of deaths per million, the number of tests per million, and the total population. The case-fatality rate was calculated (number of deaths/number of cases). In addition, the median age and the vaccination coverage rate (people who received two doses) for each European country were extracted from the "United Nations" website and the "Our World in Data" website, respectively. To compare European countries to the globe, COVID-19 data for each continent were obtained. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) test was used to compare variances across the means of the four parts of Europe based on the geographic division. An independent sample t-test was also used to compare the means between the European Union (EU) states and non-EU states. The Spearman correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between different variables across Europe. Results As of December 1, 2022, about 648 million COVID-19 cases and 6.6 million deaths have been recorded worldwide. Europe accounted for nearly 36.8% and 29.5% of all cases and deaths, respectively. Based on the number of deaths per million, Europe was the most affected continent after South America. Nearly 6.8 billion tests have been conducted worldwide, 41% done in Europe; 43 European countries have performed tests more than their population. However, COVID-19 statistics were inconsistent across the four parts of Europe. A significant difference was noticed between Eastern Europe and others, especially Northern Europe and Western Europe. By affiliation with the EU, there was no significant difference. For global comparison, the mean deaths per million, the mean cases per million, and the mean tests per population for European countries were higher than those of the world's countries, although they recorded a lower mean case-fatality rate (CFR). Thirteen European countries were among the 15 most affected countries worldwide based on the number of deaths per million, most located in Eastern and Southern Europe. The number of cases and the number of deaths were significantly proportional to the number of tests performed. Conclusions By the end of November 2022, Europe had the most cases of COVID-19, the most deaths, and the most tests performed, even though it accounts for 9.4% of the world's population. However, COVID-19 data were inconsistent across the four parts of Europe, especially between Eastern Europe and others. Given the natural immunity acquired during the three years and the excellent vaccine coverage in Europe, it is essential to reconsider the definition of a suspected case and establish more specific criteria for testing.

The Impact and Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria in Its First Two Years

After initially having low levels of SARS-CoV-2 infections for much of the year, Bulgaria experienced a major epidemic surge at the end of 2020, which caused the highest recorded excess mortality in Europe, among the highest in the word (Excess Mortality Rate, or EMR ∼0.25%). Two more major waves followed in 2021, followed by another one in early 2022. In this study, we analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of excess mortality at the national and local levels and across different demographic groups in Bulgaria and compare those to the European levels. Bulgaria has continued to exhibit the previous pattern of extremely high excess mortality, as measured both by crude mortality metrics (an EMR of ∼1.05%, up to the end of March 2022) and by standardized ones—Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) and Aged-Standardized Years of life lost Rate (ASYR). Unlike Western Europe, the bulk of excess mortality in Bulgaria, as well as in several other countries in Eastern Europe, occurred in the second year of the pandemic, likely related to the differences in the levels of vaccination coverage between these regions. We also observe even more extreme levels of excess mortality at the regional level and in some subpopulations (e.g., total EMR values for males ≥ 2% and EMR values for males aged 40–64 ≥ 1% in certain areas). We discuss these observations in light of the estimates of infection fatality rate (IFR) and eventual population fatality rate (PFR) made early in the course of the pandemic.

Statistical model for factors correlating with COVID-19 deaths

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disruption in societies globally. Our aim is to understand, what factors were associated with the impact of the pandemic on death rates. This will help countries to better prepare for and respond in future pandemics.

Methods

We modeled with a linear mixed effect model the impact of COVID-19 with the dependent variable "Daily mortality change" (DMC) with country features variables and intervention (containment measurement) data. We tested both country characteristics consisting of demographic, societal, health related, healthcare system specific, environmental and cultural feature as well as COVID-19 specific response in the form of social distancing interventions.

Results

A statistically significant country feature was Geert Hofstede's masculinity, i.e., the extent to which the use of force is endorsed socially, correlating positively with a higher DMC. The effects of different interventions were stronger that those of country features, particularly cancelling public events, controlling international travel and closing workplaces.

Conclusion

Social distancing interventions and the country feature: Geert Hofstede's masculinity dimension had a significant impact on COVID-19 mortality change. However other country features, such as development and population health did not show significance. Thus, the crises responders and scholars could revisit the concept and understanding of preparedness for and response to pandemics.

Global Excess Mortality during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Currently, reported COVID-19 deaths are inadequate to assess the impact of the pandemic on global excess mortality. All-cause excess mortality is a WHO-recommended index for assessing the death burden of COVID-19. However, the global excess mortality assessed by this index remains unclear. We aimed to assess the global excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science for studies published in English between 1 January 2020, and 21 May 2022. Cross-sectional and cohort studies that reported data about excess mortality during the pandemic were included. Two researchers independently searched the published studies, extracted data, and assessed quality. The Mantel-Haenszel random-effects method was adopted to estimate pooled risk difference (RD) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 79 countries from twenty studies were included. During the COVID-19 pandemic, of 2,228,109,318 individuals, 17,974,051 all-cause deaths were reported, and 15,498,145 deaths were expected. The pooled global excess mortality was 104.84 (95% CI 85.56-124.13) per 100,000. South America had the highest pooled excess mortality [134.02 (95% CI: 68.24-199.80) per 100,000], while Oceania had the lowest [-32.15 (95% CI: -60.53--3.77) per 100,000]. Developing countries had higher excess mortality [135.80 (95% CI: 107.83-163.76) per 100,000] than developed countries [68.08 (95% CI: 42.61-93.55) per 100,000]. Lower middle-income countries [133.45 (95% CI: 75.10-191.81) per 100,000] and upper-middle-income countries [149.88 (110.35-189.38) per 100,000] had higher excess mortality than high-income countries [75.54 (95% CI: 53.44-97.64) per 100,000]. Males had higher excess mortality [130.10 (95% CI: 94.15-166.05) per 100,000] than females [102.16 (95% CI: 85.76-118.56) per 100,000]. The population aged ≥ 60 years had the highest excess mortality [781.74 (95% CI: 626.24-937.24) per 100,000].

CONCLUSIONS

The pooled global excess mortality was 104.84 deaths per 100,000, and the number of reported all-cause deaths was higher than expected deaths during the global COVID-19 pandemic. In South America, developing and middle-income countries, male populations, and individuals aged ≥ 60 years had a heavier excess mortality burden.