1
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John RS, Miller JC, Muylaert RL, Hayman DTS. High connectivity and human movement limits the impact of travel time on infectious disease transmission. J R Soc Interface 2024; 21:20230425. [PMID: 38196378 PMCID: PMC10777149 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024] Open
Abstract
The speed of spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlights the importance of understanding how infections are transmitted in a highly connected world. Prior to vaccination, changes in human mobility patterns were used as non-pharmaceutical interventions to eliminate or suppress viral transmission. The rapid spread of respiratory viruses, various intervention approaches, and the global dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 underscore the necessity for epidemiological models that incorporate mobility to comprehend the spread of the virus. Here, we introduce a metapopulation susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model parametrized with human movement data from 340 cities in China. Our model replicates the early-case trajectory in the COVID-19 pandemic. We then use machine learning algorithms to determine which network properties best predict spread between cities and find travel time to be most important, followed by the human movement-weighted personalized PageRank. However, we show that travel time is most influential locally, after which the high connectivity between cities reduces the impact of travel time between individual cities on transmission speed. Additionally, we demonstrate that only significantly reduced movement substantially impacts infection spread times throughout the network.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reju Sam John
- Massey University, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand
- University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
| | - Joel C. Miller
- La Trobe University, Melbourne 3086, Victoria, Australia
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2
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Alleman TW, Rollier M, Vergeynst J, Baetens JM. A Stochastic Mobility-Driven Spatially Explicit SEIQRD covid-19 Model with VOCs, Seasonality, and Vaccines. APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING 2023; 123:S0307-904X(23)00281-0. [PMID: 38620163 PMCID: PMC10306418 DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2023.06.027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Revised: 06/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/20/2023] [Indexed: 04/17/2024]
Abstract
In this work, we extend our previously developed compartmental SEIQRD model for sars-cov-2 in Belgium. We introduce sars-cov-2 variants of concern, vaccines, and seasonality in our model, as their addition has proven necessary for modelling sars-cov-2 transmission dynamics during the 2020-2021 covid-19 pandemic in Belgium. The model is geographically stratified into eleven spatial patches (provinces), and a telecommunication dataset provided by Belgium's biggest operator is used to incorporate interprovincial mobility. We calibrate the model using the daily number of hospitalisations in each province and serological data. We find the model adequately describes these data, but the addition of interprovincial mobility was not necessary to obtain an accurate description of the 2020-2021 sars-cov-2 pandemic in Belgium. We further demonstrate how our model can be used to help policymakers decide on the optimal timing of the release of social restrictions.We find that adding spatial heterogeneity by geographically stratifying the model results in more uncertain model projections as compared to an equivalent nation-level model, which has both communicative advantages and disadvantages. We finally discuss the impact of imposing local mobility or social contact restrictions to contain an epidemic in a given province and find that lowering social contact is a more effective strategy than lowering mobility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tijs W Alleman
- BIOSPACE, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, Ghent, 9000, Belgium
- BIOMATH, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, Ghent, 9000, Belgium
| | - Michiel Rollier
- BIOSPACE, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, Ghent, 9000, Belgium
| | - Jenna Vergeynst
- BIOSPACE, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, Ghent, 9000, Belgium
- BIOMATH, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, Ghent, 9000, Belgium
| | - Jan M Baetens
- BIOSPACE, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, Ghent, 9000, Belgium
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3
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Kluge L, Schewe J. Evaluation and extension of the radiation model for internal migration. Phys Rev E 2021; 104:054311. [PMID: 34942836 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.104.054311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 11/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Human migration is often studied using gravity models. These models, however, have known limitations, including analytic inconsistencies and a dependence on empirical data to calibrate multiple parameters for the region of interest. Overcoming these limitations, the radiation model has been proposed as an alternative, universal approach to predicting different forms of human mobility, but has not been adopted for studying migration. Here we show, using data on within-country migration from the USA and Mexico, that the radiation model systematically underpredicts long-range moves, while the traditional gravity model performs well for large distances. The universal opportunity model, an extension of the radiation model, shows an improved fit of long-range moves compared to the original radiation model, but at the cost of introducing two additional parameters. We propose a more parsimonious extension of the radiation model that introduces a single parameter. We demonstrate that it fits the data over the full distance spectrum and also-unlike the universal opportunity model-preserves the analytical property of the original radiation model of being equivalent to a gravity model in the limit of a uniform population distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas Kluge
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany and Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24/25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jacob Schewe
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
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4
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Meredith HR, Giles JR, Perez-Saez J, Mande T, Rinaldo A, Mutembo S, Kabalo EN, Makungo K, Buckee CO, Tatem AJ, Metcalf CJE, Wesolowski A. Characterizing human mobility patterns in rural settings of sub-Saharan Africa. eLife 2021; 10:e68441. [PMID: 34533456 PMCID: PMC8448534 DOI: 10.7554/elife.68441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Accepted: 08/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Human mobility is a core component of human behavior and its quantification is critical for understanding its impact on infectious disease transmission, traffic forecasting, access to resources and care, intervention strategies, and migratory flows. When mobility data are limited, spatial interaction models have been widely used to estimate human travel, but have not been extensively validated in low- and middle-income settings. Geographic, sociodemographic, and infrastructure differences may impact the ability for models to capture these patterns, particularly in rural settings. Here, we analyzed mobility patterns inferred from mobile phone data in four Sub-Saharan African countries to investigate the ability for variants on gravity and radiation models to estimate travel. Adjusting the gravity model such that parameters were fit to different trip types, including travel between more or less populated areas and/or different regions, improved model fit in all four countries. This suggests that alternative models may be more useful in these settings and better able to capture the range of mobility patterns observed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah R Meredith
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
| | - John R Giles
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
| | - Javier Perez-Saez
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
| | - Théophile Mande
- Bureau d'Etudes Scientifiques et Techniques - Eau, Energie, Environnement (BEST-3E), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Andrea Rinaldo
- Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile Edile ed Ambientale, Università di Padova, Padova, Italy
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Simon Mutembo
- Department of International Health, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
- Macha Research Trust, Choma, Zambia
| | - Elliot N Kabalo
- Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Caroline O Buckee
- Department of Epidemiology and the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, United States
| | - Amy Wesolowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
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5
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Graells-Garrido E, Serra-Burriel F, Rowe F, Cucchietti FM, Reyes P. A city of cities: Measuring how 15-minutes urban accessibility shapes human mobility in Barcelona. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0250080. [PMID: 33951051 PMCID: PMC8099121 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2020] [Accepted: 03/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
As cities expand, human mobility has become a central focus of urban planning and policy making to make cities more inclusive and sustainable. Initiatives such as the "15-minutes city" have been put in place to shift the attention from monocentric city configurations to polycentric structures, increasing the availability and diversity of local urban amenities. Ultimately they expect to increase local walkability and increase mobility within residential areas. While we know how urban amenities influence human mobility at the city level, little is known about spatial variations in this relationship. Here, we use mobile phone, census, and volunteered geographical data to measure geographic variations in the relationship between origin-destination flows and local urban accessibility in Barcelona. Using a Negative Binomial Geographically Weighted Regression model, we show that, globally, people tend to visit neighborhoods with better access to education and retail. Locally, these and other features change in sign and magnitude through the different neighborhoods of the city in ways that are not explained by administrative boundaries, and that provide deeper insights regarding urban characteristics such as rental prices. In conclusion, our work suggests that the qualities of a 15-minutes city can be measured at scale, delivering actionable insights on the polycentric structure of cities, and how people use and access this structure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Graells-Garrido
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
- Data Science Institute, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile
| | - Feliu Serra-Burriel
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
- Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Francisco Rowe
- Geographic Data Science Lab, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | | | - Patricio Reyes
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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6
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Li R, Gao S, Luo A, Yao Q, Chen B, Shang F, Jiang R, Stanley HE. Gravity model in dockless bike-sharing systems within cities. Phys Rev E 2021; 103:012312. [PMID: 33601646 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.103.012312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2020] [Accepted: 01/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Due to previous technical challenges with the collection of data on riding behaviors, there have only been a few studies focusing on patterns and regularities of biking traffic, which are crucial to understand to help achieve a greener and more sustainable future urban development. Recently, with the booming of the sharing economy, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT) and mobile payment technology, dockless bike-sharing systems that record information for every trip provide us with a unique opportunity to study the patterns of biking traffic within cities. We first reveal a spatial scaling relation between the cumulative volume of riding activities and the corresponding distance to the city center, and a power law distribution on the volume of biking flows between fine-grained locations in both Beijing and Shanghai. We validate the effectiveness of the general gravity model on predicting biking traffic at fine spatial resolutions, where population-related parameters are less than unity, indicating that smaller populations are relatively more important per capita in generating biking traffic. We then further study the impacts of spatial scale on the gravity model and reveal that the distance-related parameter grows in a similar way as population-related parameters when the spatial scale of the locations increases. In addition, the flow patterns of some special locations (sources and sinks) that cannot be fully explained by the gravity model are studied.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruiqi Li
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Shuai Gao
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Ankang Luo
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Qing Yao
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.,Centre for Complexity Science, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - Bingsheng Chen
- Centre for Complexity Science, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - Fan Shang
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Rui Jiang
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - H Eugene Stanley
- Center for Polymer Studies and Physics Department, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA
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7
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Kotsubo M, Nakaya T. Kernel-based formulation of intervening opportunities for spatial interaction modelling. Sci Rep 2021; 11:950. [PMID: 33441794 PMCID: PMC7807028 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-80246-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2020] [Accepted: 12/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding spatial interactions such as human mobility has been one of the main analytical themes in geography, spatial economics, and traffic engineering for a long time. The intervening opportunities models, including the radiation model, provide a framework to elucidate spatial interactions generated by an individual's distance-ordered decision-making process. However, such classical definitions of intervening opportunities have often failed to predict realistic flow volumes, particularly for short-distance flows. To overcome this problem, we have proposed a new formulation of intervening opportunities with a kernel function to introduce a fuzziness in spatial search behaviours of destinations, to develop a new variant of the radiation model. The mobility patterns resulting from the modified radiation model that included kernel-based intervening opportunities outperformed the original radiation model when fitted to four datasets of inter-regional flows.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masaki Kotsubo
- Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, 468-1, Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai-city, Miyagi, 980-0845, Japan.
| | - Tomoki Nakaya
- Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, 468-1, Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai-city, Miyagi, 980-0845, Japan
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8
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Zhou WX, Wang L, Xie WJ, Yan W. Predicting highway freight transportation networks using radiation models. Phys Rev E 2020; 102:052314. [PMID: 33327199 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.102.052314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2020] [Accepted: 11/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Highway freight transportation (HFT) plays an important role in the economic activities. Predicting HFT networks is not only scientifically significant in the understanding of the mechanism governing the formation and dynamics of these networks, but also of practical significance in highway planning and design for policymakers and truck allocation and route planning for logistic companies. In this work we apply parameter-free radiation models to predict the HFT network in mainland China and assess their predictive performance using metrics based on links and fluxes, which can be done in reference to the real directed and weighted HFT network between 338 Chinese cities constructed from about 15.06 million truck transportation records in five months. It is found that the radiation models exhibit relatively high accuracy in predicting links but low accuracy in predicting fluxes on links. Similar to gravity models, radiation models also suffer difficulty in predicting long-distance links and the fluxes on them. Nevertheless, the radiation models perform well in reproducing several scaling laws of the HFT network. The adoption of population or gross domestic product in the model has a minor impact on the results, and replacing the geographic distance by the path length taken by most truck drivers does not improve the results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei-Xing Zhou
- School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China.,Department of Mathematics, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China.,Research Center for Econophysics, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China
| | - Li Wang
- School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China
| | - Wen-Jie Xie
- School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China.,Research Center for Econophysics, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China
| | - Wanfeng Yan
- Research Center for Econophysics, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China.,Zhicang Technologies, Beijing 100016, China
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9
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Association between social asymmetry and depression in older adults: A phone Call Detail Records analysis. Sci Rep 2019; 9:13524. [PMID: 31534178 PMCID: PMC6751210 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-49723-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2019] [Accepted: 08/21/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Analyzing social interactions on a passive and non-invasive way through the use of phone call detail records (CDRs) is now recognized as a promising approach in health monitoring. However, deeper investigations are required to confirm its relevance in social interaction modeling. Particularly, no clear consensus exists in the use of the direction parameter characterizing the directed nature of interactions in CDRs. In the present work, we specifically investigate, in a 26-older-adults population over 12 months, whether and how this parameter could be used in CDRs analysis. We then evaluate its added-value for depression assessment regarding the Geriatric Depression Scale score assessed within our population during the study. The results show the existence of three clusters of phone call activity named (1) proactive, (2) interactive, and (3) reactive. Then, we introduce the notion of asymmetry that synthesizes these activities. We find significant correlations between asymmetry and the depressive state assessed in the older individual. Particularly, (1) reactive users are more depressed than the others, and (2) not depressed older adults tend to be proactive. Taken together, the present findings suggest the phone’s potential to be used as a social sensor containing relevant health-related insights when the direction parameter is considered.
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10
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Hong I, Jung WS, Jo HH. Gravity model explained by the radiation model on a population landscape. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0218028. [PMID: 31170235 PMCID: PMC6553773 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2019] [Accepted: 05/23/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the mechanisms behind human mobility patterns is crucial to improve our ability to optimize and predict traffic flows. Two representative mobility models, i.e., radiation and gravity models, have been extensively compared to each other against various empirical data sets, while their fundamental relation is far from being fully understood. In order to study such a relation, we first model the heterogeneous population landscape by generating a fractal geometry of sites and then by assigning to each site a population independently drawn from a power-law distribution. Then the radiation model on this population landscape, which we call the radiation-on-landscape (RoL) model, is compared to the gravity model to derive the distance exponent in the gravity model in terms of the properties of the population landscape, which is confirmed by the numerical simulations. Consequently, we provide a possible explanation for the origin of the distance exponent in terms of the properties of the heterogeneous population landscape, enabling us to better understand mobility patterns constrained by the travel distance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Inho Hong
- Department of Physics, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Republic of Korea
| | - Woo-Sung Jung
- Department of Physics, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Republic of Korea
- Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Republic of Korea
- Asia Pacific Center for Theoretical Physics, Pohang, Republic of Korea
- Department of Informatics, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States of America
| | - Hang-Hyun Jo
- Department of Physics, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Republic of Korea
- Asia Pacific Center for Theoretical Physics, Pohang, Republic of Korea
- Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
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11
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Cao J, Li Q, Tu W, Wang F. Characterizing preferred motif choices and distance impacts. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0215242. [PMID: 30990848 PMCID: PMC6467417 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2019] [Accepted: 03/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
People's daily travels are structured and can be expressed as networks. Few studies explore how people organize their daily travels and which behavioral principles result in the choices of specific network types. In this study, we first reconstruct location networks and activity networks for numerous individuals from high-resolution mobile phone positioning data and define frequent networks as motifs. The results suggest that 99.9% of people's travels can be characterized by a limited set of location-based motifs and activity-based motifs. The results further reveal that the least effort principle governs the preferred motif choices through quantifying the rank-frequency properties. The scaling properties of distance characteristically impact motifs, and their scaling differences by node numbers and motif types coincide with the popularities of motifs, verifying the self-adaptions in motif choices; that is, although individuals travel with unique propensities, they always tend to choose the motif with the lowest consumption that satisfies their demand.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinzhou Cao
- State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, P.R. China
| | - Qingquan Li
- State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, P.R. China
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Information Smart Sensing and Services and Research Institute for Smart Cities, Department of Urban Informatics, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Coastal Zone of the National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and GeoInformation, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, P.R. China
| | - Wei Tu
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Information Smart Sensing and Services and Research Institute for Smart Cities, Department of Urban Informatics, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Coastal Zone of the National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and GeoInformation, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, P.R. China
| | - Feilong Wang
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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12
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Colet M, Aragoneses A. Forecasting Events in the Complex Dynamics of a Semiconductor Laser with Optical Feedback. Sci Rep 2018; 8:10741. [PMID: 30013210 PMCID: PMC6048036 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-29110-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2018] [Accepted: 06/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Complex systems performing spiking dynamics are widespread in Nature. They cover from earthquakes, to neurons, variable stars, social networks, or stock markets. Understanding and characterizing their dynamics is relevant in order to detect transitions, or to predict unwanted extreme events. Here we study, under an ordinal patterns analysis, the output intensity of a semiconductor laser with feedback in a regime where it develops a complex spiking behavior. We unveil that, in the transitions towards and from the spiking regime, the complex dynamics presents two competing behaviors that can be distinguished with a thresholding method. Then we use time and intensity correlations to forecast different types of events, and transitions in the dynamics of the system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meritxell Colet
- Carleton College, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northfield, MN, 55057, USA
| | - Andrés Aragoneses
- Carleton College, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northfield, MN, 55057, USA.
- Department of Physics, Eastern Washington University, Cheney, WA, 99004, USA.
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13
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Wang F, Chen C. On data processing required to derive mobility patterns from passively-generated mobile phone data. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH. PART C, EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES 2018; 87:58-74. [PMID: 29398790 PMCID: PMC5789780 DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2017.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Passively-generated mobile phone data is emerging as a potential data source for transportation research and applications. Despite the large amount of studies based on the mobile phone data, only a few have reported the properties of such data, and documented how they have processed the data. In this paper, we describe two types of common mobile phone data: Call Details Record (CDR) data and sightings data, and propose a data processing framework and the associated algorithms to address two key issues associated with the sightings data: locational uncertainty and oscillation. We show the effectiveness of our proposed methods in addressing these two issues compared to the state of art algorithms in the field. We also demonstrate that without proper processing applied to the data, the statistical regularity of human mobility patterns-a key, significant trait identified for human mobility-is over-estimated. We hope this study will stimulate more studies in examining the properties of such data and developing methods to address them. Though not as glamorous as those directly deriving insights on mobility patterns (such as statistical regularity), understanding properties of such data and developing methods to address them is a fundamental research topic on which important insights are derived on mobility patterns.
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14
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Izawa MM, Oliveira FA, Cajueiro DO, Mello BA. Pendular behavior of public transport networks. Phys Rev E 2018; 96:012309. [PMID: 29347163 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.96.012309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a methodology that bears close resemblance to the Fourier analysis of the first harmonic to study networks subjected to pendular behavior. In this context, pendular behavior is characterized by the phenomenon of people's dislocation from their homes to work in the morning and people's dislocation in the opposite direction in the afternoon. Pendular behavior is a relevant phenomenon that takes place in public transport networks because it may reduce the overall efficiency of the system as a result of the asymmetric utilization of the system in different directions. We apply this methodology to the bus transport system of Brasília, which is a city that has commercial and residential activities in distinct boroughs. We show that this methodology can be used to characterize the pendular behavior of this system, identifying the most critical nodes and times of the day when this system is in more severe demanded.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mirian M Izawa
- Instituto de Física, Universidade de Brasília, 70919-970 Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Fernando A Oliveira
- Instituto de Física, Universidade de Brasília, 70919-970 Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Daniel O Cajueiro
- Departamento de Economia, Universidade de Brasília, 70919-970 Brasília, Distritio Federal, Brazil
| | - Bernardo A Mello
- Instituto de Física, Universidade de Brasília, 70919-970 Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil.,IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York 10598, USA
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15
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Ban K, Perc M, Levnajić Z. Robust clustering of languages across Wikipedia growth. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2017; 4:171217. [PMID: 29134106 PMCID: PMC5666289 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.171217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2017] [Accepted: 09/18/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Wikipedia is the largest existing knowledge repository that is growing on a genuine crowdsourcing support. While the English Wikipedia is the most extensive and the most researched one with over 5 million articles, comparatively little is known about the behaviour and growth of the remaining 283 smaller Wikipedias, the smallest of which, Afar, has only one article. Here, we use a subset of these data, consisting of 14 962 different articles, each of which exists in 26 different languages, from Arabic to Ukrainian. We study the growth of Wikipedias in these languages over a time span of 15 years. We show that, while an average article follows a random path from one language to another, there exist six well-defined clusters of Wikipedias that share common growth patterns. The make-up of these clusters is remarkably robust against the method used for their determination, as we verify via four different clustering methods. Interestingly, the identified Wikipedia clusters have little correlation with language families and groups. Rather, the growth of Wikipedia across different languages is governed by different factors, ranging from similarities in culture to information literacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristina Ban
- Faculty of Information Studies, Ljubljanska cesta 31A, 8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia
| | - Matjaž Perc
- Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Koroška cesta 160, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia
- CAMTP—Center for Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Maribor, Mladinska 3, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia
| | - Zoran Levnajić
- Faculty of Information Studies, Ljubljanska cesta 31A, 8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia
- Department of Knowledge Technologies, Jožef Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
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16
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Partial Correlation between Spatial and Temporal Regularities of Human Mobility. Sci Rep 2017; 7:6249. [PMID: 28740176 PMCID: PMC5524686 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-06508-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2017] [Accepted: 06/23/2017] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
The regularity of human mobility has been extensively studied because of its prominent applications in a considerable number of important areas. Entropy, in addition to many other measures, has long been used to quantify the regularity of human mobility. We adopt the commonly used spatial entropy and develop an analogical temporal entropy to separately investigate the spatial and temporal regularities of human mobility. The underlying data are from an automated transit fare collection system operated by a metropolitan public transit authority in China. The distributions of both spatial and temporal entropies and their dependences on several widely used statistics are examined. The spatial and temporal entropies present a statistically significant correlation, which has not previously been reported to the best of our knowledge.
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17
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Abstract
With over 300 million active users, Twitter is among the largest online news and social networking services in existence today. Open access to information on Twitter makes it a valuable source of data for research on social interactions, sentiment analysis, content diffusion, link prediction, and the dynamics behind human collective behaviour in general. Here we use Twitter data to construct co-occurrence language networks based on hashtags and based on all the words in tweets, and we use these networks to study link prediction by means of different methods and evaluation metrics. In addition to using five known methods, we propose two effective weighted similarity measures, and we compare the obtained outcomes in dependence on the selected semantic context of topics on Twitter. We find that hashtag networks yield to a large degree equal results as all-word networks, thus supporting the claim that hashtags alone robustly capture the semantic context of tweets, and as such are useful and suitable for studying the content and categorization. We also introduce ranking diagrams as an efficient tool for the comparison of the performance of different link prediction algorithms across multiple datasets. Our research indicates that successful link prediction algorithms work well in correctly foretelling highly probable links even if the information about a network structure is incomplete, and they do so even if the semantic context is rationalized to hashtags.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Edvin Močibob
- Department of Informatics, University of Rijeka, Rijeka, Croatia
| | - Matjaž Perc
- Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia
- Center for Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia
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18
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Rinaldo A, Bertuzzo E, Blokesch M, Mari L, Gatto M. Modeling Key Drivers of Cholera Transmission Dynamics Provides New Perspectives for Parasitology. Trends Parasitol 2017; 33:587-599. [PMID: 28483382 DOI: 10.1016/j.pt.2017.04.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2016] [Revised: 04/01/2017] [Accepted: 04/10/2017] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Hydroclimatological and anthropogenic factors are key drivers of waterborne disease transmission. Information on human settlements and host mobility on waterways along which pathogens and hosts disperse, and relevant hydroclimatological processes, can be acquired remotely and included in spatially explicit mathematical models of disease transmission. In the case of epidemic cholera, such models allowed the description of complex disease patterns and provided insight into the course of ongoing epidemics. The inclusion of spatial information in models of disease transmission can aid in emergency management and the assessment of alternative interventions. Here, we review the study of drivers of transmission via spatially explicit approaches and argue that, because many parasitic waterborne diseases share the same drivers as cholera, similar principles may apply.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Rinaldo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland; Dipartimento ICEA, Università di Padova, Padova, Italy.
| | - Enrico Bertuzzo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland; Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Cà Foscari Venice, Venezia Mestre, Italy
| | - Melanie Blokesch
- Laboratory of Molecular Microbiology, School of Life Sciences, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Lorenzo Mari
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | - Marino Gatto
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
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19
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Big-data-driven modeling unveils country-wide drivers of endemic schistosomiasis. Sci Rep 2017; 7:489. [PMID: 28352101 PMCID: PMC5428445 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-00493-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2016] [Accepted: 02/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis is a parasitic infection that is widespread in sub-Saharan Africa, where it represents a major health problem. We study the drivers of its geographical distribution in Senegal via a spatially explicit network model accounting for epidemiological dynamics driven by local socioeconomic and environmental conditions, and human mobility. The model is parameterized by tapping several available geodatabases and a large dataset of mobile phone traces. It reliably reproduces the observed spatial patterns of regional schistosomiasis prevalence throughout the country, provided that spatial heterogeneity and human mobility are suitably accounted for. Specifically, a fine-grained description of the socioeconomic and environmental heterogeneities involved in local disease transmission is crucial to capturing the spatial variability of disease prevalence, while the inclusion of human mobility significantly improves the explanatory power of the model. Concerning human movement, we find that moderate mobility may reduce disease prevalence, whereas either high or low mobility may result in increased prevalence of infection. The effects of control strategies based on exposure and contamination reduction via improved access to safe water or educational campaigns are also analyzed. To our knowledge, this represents the first application of an integrative schistosomiasis transmission model at a whole-country scale.
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20
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Towards connecting people, locations and real-world events in a cellular network. TELEMATICS AND INFORMATICS 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tele.2016.05.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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21
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Zhang S, Wang Z. Inferring Passenger Denial Behavior of Taxi Drivers from Large-Scale Taxi Traces. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0165597. [PMID: 27812121 PMCID: PMC5094781 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2016] [Accepted: 10/16/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
How to understand individual human actions is a fundamental question to modern science, which drives and incurs many social, technological, racial, religious and economic phenomena. Human dynamics tries to reveal the temporal pattern and internal mechanism of human actions in letter or electronic communications, from the perspective of continuous interactions among friends or acquaintances. For interactions between stranger to stranger, taxi industry provide fruitful phenomina and evidence to investigate the action decisions. In fact, one striking disturbing events commonly reported in taxi industry is passenger refusing or denial, whose reasons vary, including skin color, blind passenger, being a foreigner or too close destination, religion reasons and anti specific nationality, so that complaints about taxi passenger refusing have to be concerned and processed carefully by local governments. But more universal factors for this phenomena are of great significance, which might be fulfilled by big data research to obtain novel insights in this question. In this paper, we demonstrate the big data analytics application in revealing novel insights from massive taxi trace data, which, for the first time, validates the passengers denial in taxi industry and estimates the denial ratio in Beijing city. We first quantify the income differentiation facts among taxi drivers. Then we find out that choosing the drop-off places also contributes to the high income for taxi drivers, compared to the previous explanation of mobility intelligence. Moreover, we propose the pick-up, drop-off and grid diversity concepts and related diversity analysis suggest that, high income taxi drivers will deny passengers in some situations, so as to choose the passengers' destination they prefer. Finally we design an estimation method for denial ratio and infer that high income taxi drivers will deny passengers with 8.52% likelihood in Beijing. Our work exhibits the power of big data analysis in revealing some dark side investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sihai Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Wireless-Optical Communications, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, 230017, China
- * E-mail:
| | - Zhiyang Wang
- Key Laboratory of Wireless-Optical Communications, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, 230017, China
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22
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Gutiérrez-Roig M, Sagarra O, Oltra A, Palmer JRB, Bartumeus F, Díaz-Guilera A, Perelló J. Active and reactive behaviour in human mobility: the influence of attraction points on pedestrians. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2016; 3:160177. [PMID: 27493774 PMCID: PMC4968466 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2016] [Accepted: 06/16/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Human mobility is becoming an accessible field of study, thanks to the progress and availability of tracking technologies as a common feature of smart phones. We describe an example of a scalable experiment exploiting these circumstances at a public, outdoor fair in Barcelona (Spain). Participants were tracked while wandering through an open space with activity stands attracting their attention. We develop a general modelling framework based on Langevin dynamics, which allows us to test the influence of two distinct types of ingredients on mobility: reactive or context-dependent factors, modelled by means of a force field generated by attraction points in a given spatial configuration and active or inherent factors, modelled from intrinsic movement patterns of the subjects. The additive and constructive framework model accounts for some observed features. Starting with the simplest model (purely random walkers) as a reference, we progressively introduce different ingredients such as persistence, memory and perceptual landscape, aiming to untangle active and reactive contributions and quantify their respective relevance. The proposed approach may help in anticipating the spatial distribution of citizens in alternative scenarios and in improving the design of public events based on a facts-based approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- M. Gutiérrez-Roig
- Departament de Física Fonamental, Universitat de Barcelona. Martí i Franqués 1, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - O. Sagarra
- Departament de Física Fonamental, Universitat de Barcelona. Martí i Franqués 1, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat de Barcelona Institute of Complex Systems UBICS, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - A. Oltra
- Centre d’Estudis Avançats de Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), Accés a la Cala Sant Francesc, 17300 Blanes, Spain
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - J. R. B. Palmer
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - F. Bartumeus
- Centre d’Estudis Avançats de Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), Accés a la Cala Sant Francesc, 17300 Blanes, Spain
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- ICREA, Passeig Lluis Companys 23, 08010 Barcelona, Spain
| | - A. Díaz-Guilera
- Departament de Física Fonamental, Universitat de Barcelona. Martí i Franqués 1, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat de Barcelona Institute of Complex Systems UBICS, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - J. Perelló
- Departament de Física Fonamental, Universitat de Barcelona. Martí i Franqués 1, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat de Barcelona Institute of Complex Systems UBICS, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
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23
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Finger F, Genolet T, Mari L, de Magny GC, Manga NM, Rinaldo A, Bertuzzo E. Mobile phone data highlights the role of mass gatherings in the spreading of cholera outbreaks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2016; 113:6421-6. [PMID: 27217564 PMCID: PMC4988598 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1522305113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 113] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The spatiotemporal evolution of human mobility and the related fluctuations of population density are known to be key drivers of the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. These factors are particularly relevant in the case of mass gatherings, which may act as hotspots of disease transmission and spread. Understanding these dynamics, however, is usually limited by the lack of accurate data, especially in developing countries. Mobile phone call data provide a new, first-order source of information that allows the tracking of the evolution of mobility fluxes with high resolution in space and time. Here, we analyze a dataset of mobile phone records of ∼150,000 users in Senegal to extract human mobility fluxes and directly incorporate them into a spatially explicit, dynamic epidemiological framework. Our model, which also takes into account other drivers of disease transmission such as rainfall, is applied to the 2005 cholera outbreak in Senegal, which totaled more than 30,000 reported cases. Our findings highlight the major influence that a mass gathering, which took place during the initial phase of the outbreak, had on the course of the epidemic. Such an effect could not be explained by classic, static approaches describing human mobility. Model results also show how concentrated efforts toward disease control in a transmission hotspot could have an important effect on the large-scale progression of an outbreak.
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Affiliation(s)
- Flavio Finger
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Tina Genolet
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Lorenzo Mari
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Guillaume Constantin de Magny
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle, Institute of Research for Development, 64501 Montpellier, France
| | - Noël Magloire Manga
- Service des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales de l'Hôpital de la Paix, Unité de Formation et de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé, Université Assane Seck de Ziguinchor, 27000 Ziguinchor, Senegal
| | - Andrea Rinaldo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Dipartimento dell'Ingegneria Civile, Edile ed Ambientale, Università di Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy
| | - Enrico Bertuzzo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, École Polytechnique Fédérale Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;
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24
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Kang C, Liu Y, Guo D, Qin K. A Generalized Radiation Model for Human Mobility: Spatial Scale, Searching Direction and Trip Constraint. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0143500. [PMID: 26600153 PMCID: PMC4657960 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0143500] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2015] [Accepted: 11/05/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We generalized the recently introduced “radiation model”, as an analog to the generalization of the classic “gravity model”, to consolidate its nature of universality for modeling diverse mobility systems. By imposing the appropriate scaling exponent λ, normalization factor κ and system constraints including searching direction and trip OD constraint, the generalized radiation model accurately captures real human movements in various scenarios and spatial scales, including two different countries and four different cities. Our analytical results also indicated that the generalized radiation model outperformed alternative mobility models in various empirical analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chaogui Kang
- School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China
- * E-mail:
| | - Yu Liu
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Diansheng Guo
- Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, United States of America
| | - Kun Qin
- School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Geospatial Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China
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25
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Perez-Saez J, Mari L, Bertuzzo E, Casagrandi R, Sokolow SH, De Leo GA, Mande T, Ceperley N, Froehlich JM, Sou M, Karambiri H, Yacouba H, Maiga A, Gatto M, Rinaldo A. A Theoretical Analysis of the Geography of Schistosomiasis in Burkina Faso Highlights the Roles of Human Mobility and Water Resources Development in Disease Transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2015; 9:e0004127. [PMID: 26513655 PMCID: PMC4625963 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2015] [Accepted: 09/08/2015] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
We study the geography of schistosomiasis across Burkina Faso by means of a spatially explicit model of water-based disease dynamics. The model quantitatively addresses the geographic stratification of disease burden in a novel framework by explicitly accounting for drivers and controls of the disease, including spatial information on the distributions of population and infrastructure, jointly with a general description of human mobility and climatic/ecological drivers. Spatial patterns of disease are analysed by the extraction and the mapping of suitable eigenvectors of the Jacobian matrix subsuming the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The relevance of the work lies in the novel mapping of disease burden, a byproduct of the parametrization induced by regional upscaling, by model-guided field validations and in the predictive scenarios allowed by exploiting the range of possible parameters and processes. Human mobility is found to be a primary control at regional scales both for pathogen invasion success and the overall distribution of disease burden. The effects of water resources development highlighted by systematic reviews are accounted for by the average distances of human settlements from water bodies that are habitats for the parasite's intermediate host. Our results confirm the empirical findings about the role of water resources development on disease spread into regions previously nearly disease-free also by inspection of empirical prevalence patterns. We conclude that while the model still needs refinements based on field and epidemiological evidence, the proposed framework provides a powerful tool for large-scale public health planning and schistosomiasis management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Javier Perez-Saez
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Lorenzo Mari
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | - Enrico Bertuzzo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Renato Casagrandi
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | - Susanne H. Sokolow
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America
- Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Giulio A. De Leo
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, California, United States of America
| | - Theophile Mande
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Natalie Ceperley
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Jean-Marc Froehlich
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Mariam Sou
- Institute International d’Ingénierie de l’Eau et de l’Environment, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Harouna Karambiri
- Institute International d’Ingénierie de l’Eau et de l’Environment, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Hamma Yacouba
- Institute International d’Ingénierie de l’Eau et de l’Environment, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Amadou Maiga
- Institute International d’Ingénierie de l’Eau et de l’Environment, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Marino Gatto
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | - Andrea Rinaldo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
- Dipartimento ICEA, Università di Padova, Padova, Italy
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26
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Abstract
Understanding human mobility patterns—how people move in their everyday lives—is an interdisciplinary research field. It is a question with roots back to the 19th century that has been dramatically revitalized with the recent increase in data availability. Models of human mobility often take the population distribution as a starting point. Another, sometimes more accurate, data source is land-use maps. In this paper, we discuss how the intra-city movement patterns, and consequently population distribution, can be predicted from such data sources. As a link between land use and mobility, we show that the purposes of people's trips are strongly correlated with the land use of the trip's origin and destination. We calibrate, validate and discuss our model using survey data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Minjin Lee
- Department of Energy Science, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea
| | - Petter Holme
- Department of Energy Science, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea
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27
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Jurdak R, Zhao K, Liu J, AbouJaoude M, Cameron M, Newth D. Understanding Human Mobility from Twitter. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0131469. [PMID: 26154597 PMCID: PMC4496063 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2015] [Accepted: 06/02/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding human mobility is crucial for a broad range of applications from disease prediction to communication networks. Most efforts on studying human mobility have so far used private and low resolution data, such as call data records. Here, we propose Twitter as a proxy for human mobility, as it relies on publicly available data and provides high resolution positioning when users opt to geotag their tweets with their current location. We analyse a Twitter dataset with more than six million geotagged tweets posted in Australia, and we demonstrate that Twitter can be a reliable source for studying human mobility patterns. Our analysis shows that geotagged tweets can capture rich features of human mobility, such as the diversity of movement orbits among individuals and of movements within and between cities. We also find that short- and long-distance movers both spend most of their time in large metropolitan areas, in contrast with intermediate-distance movers' movements, reflecting the impact of different modes of travel. Our study provides solid evidence that Twitter can indeed be a useful proxy for tracking and predicting human movement.
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28
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Mobile phone call data as a regional socio-economic proxy indicator. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0124160. [PMID: 25897957 PMCID: PMC4405276 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2014] [Accepted: 03/10/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The advent of publishing anonymized call detail records opens the door for temporal and spatial human dynamics studies. Such studies, besides being useful for creating universal models for mobility patterns, could be also used for creating new socio-economic proxy indicators that will not rely only on the local or state institutions. In this paper, from the frequency of calls at different times of the day, in different small regional units (sub-prefectures) in Côte d'Ivoire, we infer users' home and work sub-prefectures. This division of users enables us to analyze different mobility and calling patterns for the different regions. We then compare how those patterns correlate to the data from other sources, such as: news for particular events in the given period, census data, economic activity, poverty index, power plants and energy grid data. Our results show high correlation in many of the cases revealing the diversity of socio-economic insights that can be inferred using only mobile phone call data. The methods and the results may be particularly relevant to policy-makers engaged in poverty reduction initiatives as they can provide an affordable tool in the context of resource-constrained developing economies, such as Côte d'Ivoire's.
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29
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Spatial patterns of close relationships across the lifespan. Sci Rep 2014; 4:6988. [PMID: 25384677 PMCID: PMC4227025 DOI: 10.1038/srep06988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2014] [Accepted: 10/13/2014] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The dynamics of close relationships is important for understanding the migration patterns of individual life-courses. The bottom-up approach to this subject by social scientists has been limited by sample size, while the more recent top-down approach using large-scale datasets suffers from a lack of detail about the human individuals. We incorporate the geographic and demographic information of millions of mobile phone users with their communication patterns to study the dynamics of close relationships and its effect in their life-course migration. We demonstrate how the close age- and sex-biased dyadic relationships are correlated with the geographic proximity of the pair of individuals, e.g., young couples tend to live further from each other than old couples. In addition, we find that emotionally closer pairs are living geographically closer to each other. These findings imply that the life-course framework is crucial for understanding the complex dynamics of close relationships and their effect on the migration patterns of human individuals.
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