The False Promise of Natural Gas

Indoor Air Sources of Outdoor Air Pollution: Health Consequences, Policy, and Recommendations: An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report

Indoor sources of air pollution worsen indoor and outdoor air quality. Thus, identifying and reducing indoor pollutant sources would decrease both indoor and outdoor air pollution, benefit public health, and help address the climate crisis. As outdoor sources come under regulatory control, unregulated indoor sources become a rising percentage of the problem. This American Thoracic Society workshop was convened in 2022 to evaluate this increasing proportion of indoor contributions to outdoor air quality. The workshop was conducted by physicians and scientists, including atmospheric and aerosol scientists, environmental engineers, toxicologists, epidemiologists, regulatory policy experts, and pediatric and adult pulmonologists. Presentations and discussion sessions were centered on 1) the generation and migration of pollutants from indoors to outdoors, 2) the sources and circumstances representing the greatest threat, and 3) effective remedies to reduce the health burden of indoor sources of air pollution. The scope of the workshop was residential and commercial sources of indoor air pollution in the United States. Topics included wood burning, natural gas, cooking, evaporative volatile organic compounds, source apportionment, and regulatory policy. The workshop concluded that indoor sources of air pollution are significant contributors to outdoor air quality and that source control and filtration are the most effective measures to reduce indoor contributions to outdoor air. Interventions should prioritize environmental justice: Households of lower socioeconomic status have higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants from both indoor and outdoor sources. We identify research priorities, potential health benefits, and mitigation actions to consider (e.g., switching from natural gas to electric stoves and transitioning to scent-free consumer products). The workshop committee emphasizes the benefits of combustion-free homes and businesses and recommends economic, legislative, and education strategies aimed at achieving this goal.

Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions

The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking on energy transitions. However, there is a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory, and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot, global coal, oil, and natural gas supply (intended for all uses) decline on average by 95%, 62%, and 42%, respectively, from 2020 to 2050, but the long-term role of gas is highly variable. Higher-gas pathways are enabled by higher carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but are likely associated with inadequate model representation of regional CO2 storage capacity and technology adoption, diffusion, and path-dependencies. If CDR is constrained by limits derived from expert consensus, the respective modelled coal, oil, and gas reductions become 99%, 70%, and 84%. Our findings suggest the need to adopt unambiguous near- and long-term reduction benchmarks in coal, oil, and gas production and use alongside other climate mitigation targets.

Direct Catalytic Oxidation of Low-Concentration Methane to Methanol in One Step on Ni-Promoted BiOCl Catalysts

The direct oxidation of low-concentration methane (CH₄) to methanol (CH₃OH) is often regarded as the "holy grail". However, it still is very difficult and challenging to oxidize methane to methanol in one step. In this work, we present a new approach to directly oxidize CH₄ to generate CH₃OH in one step by doping non-noble metal Ni sites on bismuth oxychloride (BiOCl) equipped with high oxygen vacancies. Thereinto, the conversion rate of CH₃OH can reach 39.07 μmol/(g_cat·h) under 420 °C and flow conditions on the basis of O₂ and H₂O. The crystal morphology structure, physicochemical properties, metal dispersion, and surface adsorption capacity of Ni-BiOCl were explored, and the positive effect on the oxygen vacancy of the catalyst was proved, thus improving the catalytic performance. Furthermore, in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) was also performed to study the surface adsorption and reaction process of methane to methanol in one step. Results demonstrate that the key to keep good activity lies in the oxygen vacancies of unsaturated Bi atoms, which can adsorb and active CH₄ and to produce methyl groups and adsorbing hydroxyl groups in methane oxidation process. This study broadens the application of oxygen-deficient catalysts in the catalytic conversion of CH₄ to CH₃OH in one step, which provides a new perspective on the role of oxygen vacancies in improving the catalytic performance of methane oxidation.

The Minderoo-Monaco Commission on Plastics and Human Health

Background

Plastics have conveyed great benefits to humanity and made possible some of the most significant advances of modern civilization in fields as diverse as medicine, electronics, aerospace, construction, food packaging, and sports. It is now clear, however, that plastics are also responsible for significant harms to human health, the economy, and the earth's environment. These harms occur at every stage of the plastic life cycle, from extraction of the coal, oil, and gas that are its main feedstocks through to ultimate disposal into the environment. The extent of these harms not been systematically assessed, their magnitude not fully quantified, and their economic costs not comprehensively counted.

Goals

The goals of this Minderoo-Monaco Commission on Plastics and Human Health are to comprehensively examine plastics' impacts across their life cycle on: (1) human health and well-being; (2) the global environment, especially the ocean; (3) the economy; and (4) vulnerable populations-the poor, minorities, and the world's children. On the basis of this examination, the Commission offers science-based recommendations designed to support development of a Global Plastics Treaty, protect human health, and save lives.

Report Structure

This Commission report contains seven Sections. Following an Introduction, Section 2 presents a narrative review of the processes involved in plastic production, use, and disposal and notes the hazards to human health and the environment associated with each of these stages. Section 3 describes plastics' impacts on the ocean and notes the potential for plastic in the ocean to enter the marine food web and result in human exposure. Section 4 details plastics' impacts on human health. Section 5 presents a first-order estimate of plastics' health-related economic costs. Section 6 examines the intersection between plastic, social inequity, and environmental injustice. Section 7 presents the Commission's findings and recommendations.

Plastics

Plastics are complex, highly heterogeneous, synthetic chemical materials. Over 98% of plastics are produced from fossil carbon- coal, oil and gas. Plastics are comprised of a carbon-based polymer backbone and thousands of additional chemicals that are incorporated into polymers to convey specific properties such as color, flexibility, stability, water repellence, flame retardation, and ultraviolet resistance. Many of these added chemicals are highly toxic. They include carcinogens, neurotoxicants and endocrine disruptors such as phthalates, bisphenols, per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), brominated flame retardants, and organophosphate flame retardants. They are integral components of plastic and are responsible for many of plastics' harms to human health and the environment.Global plastic production has increased almost exponentially since World War II, and in this time more than 8,300 megatons (Mt) of plastic have been manufactured. Annual production volume has grown from under 2 Mt in 1950 to 460 Mt in 2019, a 230-fold increase, and is on track to triple by 2060. More than half of all plastic ever made has been produced since 2002. Single-use plastics account for 35-40% of current plastic production and represent the most rapidly growing segment of plastic manufacture.Explosive recent growth in plastics production reflects a deliberate pivot by the integrated multinational fossil-carbon corporations that produce coal, oil and gas and that also manufacture plastics. These corporations are reducing their production of fossil fuels and increasing plastics manufacture. The two principal factors responsible for this pivot are decreasing global demand for carbon-based fuels due to increases in 'green' energy, and massive expansion of oil and gas production due to fracking.Plastic manufacture is energy-intensive and contributes significantly to climate change. At present, plastic production is responsible for an estimated 3.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, more than the contribution of Brazil. This fraction is projected to increase to 4.5% by 2060 if current trends continue unchecked.

Plastic Life Cycle

The plastic life cycle has three phases: production, use, and disposal. In production, carbon feedstocks-coal, gas, and oil-are transformed through energy-intensive, catalytic processes into a vast array of products. Plastic use occurs in every aspect of modern life and results in widespread human exposure to the chemicals contained in plastic. Single-use plastics constitute the largest portion of current use, followed by synthetic fibers and construction.Plastic disposal is highly inefficient, with recovery and recycling rates below 10% globally. The result is that an estimated 22 Mt of plastic waste enters the environment each year, much of it single-use plastic and are added to the more than 6 gigatons of plastic waste that have accumulated since 1950. Strategies for disposal of plastic waste include controlled and uncontrolled landfilling, open burning, thermal conversion, and export. Vast quantities of plastic waste are exported each year from high-income to low-income countries, where it accumulates in landfills, pollutes air and water, degrades vital ecosystems, befouls beaches and estuaries, and harms human health-environmental injustice on a global scale. Plastic-laden e-waste is particularly problematic.

Environmental Findings

Plastics and plastic-associated chemicals are responsible for widespread pollution. They contaminate aquatic (marine and freshwater), terrestrial, and atmospheric environments globally. The ocean is the ultimate destination for much plastic, and plastics are found throughout the ocean, including coastal regions, the sea surface, the deep sea, and polar sea ice. Many plastics appear to resist breakdown in the ocean and could persist in the global environment for decades. Macro- and micro-plastic particles have been identified in hundreds of marine species in all major taxa, including species consumed by humans. Trophic transfer of microplastic particles and the chemicals within them has been demonstrated. Although microplastic particles themselves (>10 µm) appear not to undergo biomagnification, hydrophobic plastic-associated chemicals bioaccumulate in marine animals and biomagnify in marine food webs. The amounts and fates of smaller microplastic and nanoplastic particles (MNPs <10 µm) in aquatic environments are poorly understood, but the potential for harm is worrying given their mobility in biological systems. Adverse environmental impacts of plastic pollution occur at multiple levels from molecular and biochemical to population and ecosystem. MNP contamination of seafood results in direct, though not well quantified, human exposure to plastics and plastic-associated chemicals. Marine plastic pollution endangers the ocean ecosystems upon which all humanity depends for food, oxygen, livelihood, and well-being.

Human Health Findings

Coal miners, oil workers and gas field workers who extract fossil carbon feedstocks for plastic production suffer increased mortality from traumatic injury, coal workers' pneumoconiosis, silicosis, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lung cancer. Plastic production workers are at increased risk of leukemia, lymphoma, hepatic angiosarcoma, brain cancer, breast cancer, mesothelioma, neurotoxic injury, and decreased fertility. Workers producing plastic textiles die of bladder cancer, lung cancer, mesothelioma, and interstitial lung disease at increased rates. Plastic recycling workers have increased rates of cardiovascular disease, toxic metal poisoning, neuropathy, and lung cancer. Residents of "fenceline" communities adjacent to plastic production and waste disposal sites experience increased risks of premature birth, low birth weight, asthma, childhood leukemia, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lung cancer.During use and also in disposal, plastics release toxic chemicals including additives and residual monomers into the environment and into people. National biomonitoring surveys in the USA document population-wide exposures to these chemicals. Plastic additives disrupt endocrine function and increase risk for premature births, neurodevelopmental disorders, male reproductive birth defects, infertility, obesity, cardiovascular disease, renal disease, and cancers. Chemical-laden MNPs formed through the environmental degradation of plastic waste can enter living organisms, including humans. Emerging, albeit still incomplete evidence indicates that MNPs may cause toxicity due to their physical and toxicological effects as well as by acting as vectors that transport toxic chemicals and bacterial pathogens into tissues and cells.Infants in the womb and young children are two populations at particularly high risk of plastic-related health effects. Because of the exquisite sensitivity of early development to hazardous chemicals and children's unique patterns of exposure, plastic-associated exposures are linked to increased risks of prematurity, stillbirth, low birth weight, birth defects of the reproductive organs, neurodevelopmental impairment, impaired lung growth, and childhood cancer. Early-life exposures to plastic-associated chemicals also increase the risk of multiple non-communicable diseases later in life.

Economic Findings

Plastic's harms to human health result in significant economic costs. We estimate that in 2015 the health-related costs of plastic production exceeded $250 billion (2015 Int$) globally, and that in the USA alone the health costs of disease and disability caused by the plastic-associated chemicals PBDE, BPA and DEHP exceeded $920 billion (2015 Int$). Plastic production results in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions equivalent to 1.96 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2e) annually. Using the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) social cost of carbon metric, we estimate the annual costs of these GHG emissions to be $341 billion (2015 Int$).These costs, large as they are, almost certainly underestimate the full economic losses resulting from plastics' negative impacts on human health and the global environment. All of plastics' economic costs-and also its social costs-are externalized by the petrochemical and plastic manufacturing industry and are borne by citizens, taxpayers, and governments in countries around the world without compensation.

Social Justice Findings

The adverse effects of plastics and plastic pollution on human health, the economy and the environment are not evenly distributed. They disproportionately affect poor, disempowered, and marginalized populations such as workers, racial and ethnic minorities, "fenceline" communities, Indigenous groups, women, and children, all of whom had little to do with creating the current plastics crisis and lack the political influence or the resources to address it. Plastics' harmful impacts across its life cycle are most keenly felt in the Global South, in small island states, and in disenfranchised areas in the Global North. Social and environmental justice (SEJ) principles require reversal of these inequitable burdens to ensure that no group bears a disproportionate share of plastics' negative impacts and that those who benefit economically from plastic bear their fair share of its currently externalized costs.

Conclusions

It is now clear that current patterns of plastic production, use, and disposal are not sustainable and are responsible for significant harms to human health, the environment, and the economy as well as for deep societal injustices.The main driver of these worsening harms is an almost exponential and still accelerating increase in global plastic production. Plastics' harms are further magnified by low rates of recovery and recycling and by the long persistence of plastic waste in the environment.The thousands of chemicals in plastics-monomers, additives, processing agents, and non-intentionally added substances-include amongst their number known human carcinogens, endocrine disruptors, neurotoxicants, and persistent organic pollutants. These chemicals are responsible for many of plastics' known harms to human and planetary health. The chemicals leach out of plastics, enter the environment, cause pollution, and result in human exposure and disease. All efforts to reduce plastics' hazards must address the hazards of plastic-associated chemicals.

Recommendations

To protect human and planetary health, especially the health of vulnerable and at-risk populations, and put the world on track to end plastic pollution by 2040, this Commission supports urgent adoption by the world's nations of a strong and comprehensive Global Plastics Treaty in accord with the mandate set forth in the March 2022 resolution of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA).International measures such as a Global Plastics Treaty are needed to curb plastic production and pollution, because the harms to human health and the environment caused by plastics, plastic-associated chemicals and plastic waste transcend national boundaries, are planetary in their scale, and have disproportionate impacts on the health and well-being of people in the world's poorest nations. Effective implementation of the Global Plastics Treaty will require that international action be coordinated and complemented by interventions at the national, regional, and local levels.This Commission urges that a cap on global plastic production with targets, timetables, and national contributions be a central provision of the Global Plastics Treaty. We recommend inclusion of the following additional provisions:The Treaty needs to extend beyond microplastics and marine litter to include all of the many thousands of chemicals incorporated into plastics.The Treaty needs to include a provision banning or severely restricting manufacture and use of unnecessary, avoidable, and problematic plastic items, especially single-use items such as manufactured plastic microbeads.The Treaty needs to include requirements on extended producer responsibility (EPR) that make fossil carbon producers, plastic producers, and the manufacturers of plastic products legally and financially responsible for the safety and end-of-life management of all the materials they produce and sell.The Treaty needs to mandate reductions in the chemical complexity of plastic products; health-protective standards for plastics and plastic additives; a requirement for use of sustainable non-toxic materials; full disclosure of all components; and traceability of components. International cooperation will be essential to implementing and enforcing these standards.The Treaty needs to include SEJ remedies at each stage of the plastic life cycle designed to fill gaps in community knowledge and advance both distributional and procedural equity.This Commission encourages inclusion in the Global Plastic Treaty of a provision calling for exploration of listing at least some plastic polymers as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) under the Stockholm Convention.This Commission encourages a strong interface between the Global Plastics Treaty and the Basel and London Conventions to enhance management of hazardous plastic waste and slow current massive exports of plastic waste into the world's least-developed countries.This Commission recommends the creation of a Permanent Science Policy Advisory Body to guide the Treaty's implementation. The main priorities of this Body would be to guide Member States and other stakeholders in evaluating which solutions are most effective in reducing plastic consumption, enhancing plastic waste recovery and recycling, and curbing the generation of plastic waste. This Body could also assess trade-offs among these solutions and evaluate safer alternatives to current plastics. It could monitor the transnational export of plastic waste. It could coordinate robust oceanic-, land-, and air-based MNP monitoring programs.This Commission recommends urgent investment by national governments in research into solutions to the global plastic crisis. This research will need to determine which solutions are most effective and cost-effective in the context of particular countries and assess the risks and benefits of proposed solutions. Oceanographic and environmental research is needed to better measure concentrations and impacts of plastics <10 µm and understand their distribution and fate in the global environment. Biomedical research is needed to elucidate the human health impacts of plastics, especially MNPs.

Summary

This Commission finds that plastics are both a boon to humanity and a stealth threat to human and planetary health. Plastics convey enormous benefits, but current linear patterns of plastic production, use, and disposal that pay little attention to sustainable design or safe materials and a near absence of recovery, reuse, and recycling are responsible for grave harms to health, widespread environmental damage, great economic costs, and deep societal injustices. These harms are rapidly worsening.While there remain gaps in knowledge about plastics' harms and uncertainties about their full magnitude, the evidence available today demonstrates unequivocally that these impacts are great and that they will increase in severity in the absence of urgent and effective intervention at global scale. Manufacture and use of essential plastics may continue. However, reckless increases in plastic production, and especially increases in the manufacture of an ever-increasing array of unnecessary single-use plastic products, need to be curbed.Global intervention against the plastic crisis is needed now because the costs of failure to act will be immense.

Learning to treat the climate emergency together: social tipping interventions by the health community

Accelerating the decarbonisation of local and national economies is a profound public health imperative. As trusted voices within communities around the world, health professionals and health organisations have enormous potential to influence the social and policy landscape in support of decarbonisation. We assembled a multidisciplinary, gender-balanced group of experts from six continents to develop a framework for maximising the social and policy influence of the health community on decarbonisation at the micro levels, meso levels, and macro levels of society. We identify practical, learning-by-doing approaches and networks to implement this strategic framework. Collectively, the actions of health-care workers can shift practice, finance, and power in ways that can transform the public narrative and influence investment, activate socioeconomic tipping points, and catalyse the rapid decarbonisation needed to protect health and health systems.

Hospitalisations for cardiovascular and respiratory disease among older adults living near unconventional natural gas development: a difference-in-differences analysis

BACKGROUND

During 2008-15, the Marcellus shale region of the US state of Pennsylvania experienced a boom in unconventional natural gas development (UNGD) or "fracking". However, despite much public debate, little is known about the effects of UNGD on population health in local communities. Among other mechanisms, air pollution from UNGD might affect individuals living nearby through cardiovascular or respiratory disease, and older adults could be particularly susceptible.

METHODS

To study the health impacts of Pennsylvania's fracking boom, we exploited the ban on UNGD in neighbouring New York state. Using 2002-15 Medicare claims, we conducted difference-in-differences analyses over multiple timepoints to estimate the risk of living near UNGD for hospitalisation with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and bronchiectasis, heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, and stroke among older adults (aged ≥65 years).

FINDINGS

Pennsylvania ZIP codes that started UNGD in 2008-10 were associated with more hospitalisations for cardiovascular diseases in 2012-15 than would be expected in the absence of UNGD. Specifically, in 2015, we estimated an additional 11·8, 21·6, and 20·4 hospitalisations for AMI, heart failure, and ischaemic heart disease, respectively, per 1000 Medicare beneficiaries. Hospitalisations increased even as UNGD growth slowed. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

INTERPRETATION

Older adults living near UNGD could be at high risk of poor cardiovascular outcomes. Mitigation policies for existing UNGD might be needed to address current and future health risks. Future consideration of UNGD should prioritise local population health.

FUNDING

University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratories.

Congenital anomalies associated with oil and gas development and resource extraction: a population-based retrospective cohort study in Texas

BACKGROUND

Oil and gas extraction-related activities produce air and water pollution that contains known and suspected teratogens. To date, health impacts of in utero exposure to these activities is largely unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated associations between in utero exposure to oil and gas extraction activity in Texas, one of the highest producers of oil and gas, and congenital anomalies.

METHODS

We created a population-based birth cohort between 1999 and 2009 with full maternal address at delivery and linked to the statewide congenital anomaly surveillance system (n = 2,234,138 births, 86,315 cases). We examined extraction-related exposures using tertiles of inverse distance-squared weighting within 5 km for drilling site count, gas production, oil production, and produced water. In adjusted logistic regression models, we calculated odds of any congenital anomaly and 10 specific organ sites using two comparison groups: 1) 5 km of future drilling sites that are not yet operating (a priori main models), and 2) 5-10 km of an active well.

RESULTS

Using the temporal comparison group, we find increased odds of any congenital anomaly in the highest tertile exposure group for site count (OR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.30), oil production (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.12), gas production (1.20; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.23), and produced water (OR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.20). However, associations did not follow a consistent exposure-response pattern across tertiles. Associations are highly attenuated, but still increased, with the spatial comparison group in the highest tertile exposure group. Cardiac and circulatory defects are strongly and consistently associated with all exposure metrics.

SIGNIFICANCE

Increased odds of congenital anomalies, particularly cardiac and circulatory defects, were associated with exposures related to oil and gas extraction in this large population-based study. Future research is needed to confirm findings, examine specific exposure pathways, and identify potential avenues to reduce exposures among local populations.

IMPACT

About 5% of the U.S. population (~17.6 million people) resides within 1.6 km of an active oil or gas extraction site, yet the influence of this industry on population health is not fully understood. In this analysis, we examined associations between oil and gas extraction-related exposures and congenital anomalies by organ site using birth certificate and congenital anomaly surveillance data in Texas (1999-2009). Increased odds of congenital anomalies, particularly cardiac and circulatory defects, were associated with exposures related to oil and gas extraction in this large population-based study. Future research is needed to confirm these findings.

Climate change and the prevention of cardiovascular disease

Climate change is a worsening global crisis that will continue negatively impacting population health and well-being unless adaptation and mitigation interventions are rapidly implemented. Climate change-related cardiovascular disease is mediated by air pollution, increased ambient temperatures, vector-borne disease and mental health disorders. Climate change-related cardiovascular disease can be modulated by climate change adaptation; however, this process could result in significant health inequity because persons and populations of lower socioeconomic status have fewer adaptation options. Clear scientific evidence for climate change and its impact on human health have not yet resulted in the national and international impetus and policies necessary to slow climate change. As respected members of society who regularly communicate scientific evidence to patients, clinicians are well-positioned to advocate on the importance of addressing climate change. This narrative review summarizes the links between climate change and cardiovascular health, proposes actionable items clinicians and other healthcare providers can execute both in their personal life and as an advocate of climate policies, and encourages communication of the health impacts of climate change when counseling patients. Our aim is to inspire the reader to invest more time in communicating the most crucial public health issue of the 21st century to their patients.

A replicable strategy for mapping air pollution's community-level health impacts and catalyzing prevention

BACKGROUND

Air pollution was responsible for an estimated 6.7 million deaths globally in 2019 and 197,000 deaths in the United States. Fossil fuel combustion is the major source.

HYPOTHESIS

Mapping air pollution's health impacts at the community level using publicly available data and open-source software will provide a replicable strategy for catalyzing pollution prevention.

METHODS

Using EPA's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis (BenMAP-CE) software and state data, we quantified the effects of airborne fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution on disease, death and children's cognitive function (IQ Loss) in each city and town in Massachusetts. To develop a first-order estimate of PM_2.5 pollution's impact on child IQ, we derived a concentration-response coefficient through literature review.

FINDINGS

The annual mean PM_2.5 concentration in Massachusetts in 2019 was 6.3 μg/M³, a level below EPA's standard of 12 μg/M³ and above WHO's guideline of 5 μg/M³. In adults, PM_2.5 pollution was responsible for an estimated 2780 (Confidence Interval [CI] 2726 - 2853) deaths: 1677 (CI, 1346 - 1926) from cardiovascular disease, 2185 (CI, 941-3409) from lung cancer, 200 (CI, 66-316) from stroke, and 343 (CI, 222-458) from chronic respiratory disease. In children, PM_2.5 pollution was responsible for 308 (CI, 105-471) low-weight births, 15,386 (CJ, 5433-23,483) asthma cases, and a provisionally estimated loss of nearly 2 million Performance IQ points; IQ loss impairs children's school performance, reduces graduation rates and decreases lifetime earnings. Air-pollution-related disease, death and IQ loss were most severe in low-income, minority communities, but occurred in every city and town in Massachusetts regardless of location, demographics or median family income.

CONCLUSION

Disease, death and IQ loss occur at air pollution exposure levels below current EPA standards. Prevention of disease and premature death and preservation of children's cognitive function will require that EPA air quality standards be tightened. Enduring prevention will require government-incentivized transition to renewable energy coupled with phase-outs of subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels. Highly localized information on air pollution's impacts on health and on children's cognitive function has potential to catalyze pollution prevention.

Air pollution and development in Africa: impacts on health, the economy, and human capital

BACKGROUND

Africa is undergoing both an environmental and an epidemiological transition. Household air pollution is the predominant form of air pollution, but it is declining, whereas ambient air pollution is increasing. We aimed to quantify how air pollution is affecting health, human capital, and the economy across Africa, with a particular focus on Ethiopia, Ghana, and Rwanda.

METHODS

Data on household and ambient air pollution were from WHO Global Health Observatory, and data on morbidity and mortality were from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated economic output lost due to air pollution-related disease by country, with use of labour income per worker, adjusted by the probability that a person (of a given age) was working. Losses were expressed in 2019 international dollars and as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). We also quantified the contribution of particulate matter (PM)_2·5 pollution to intelligence quotient (IQ) loss in children younger than 10 years, with use of an exposure-response coefficient based on previously published data.

FINDINGS

Air pollution was responsible for 1·1 million deaths across Africa in 2019. Household air pollution accounted for 697 000 deaths and ambient air pollution for 394 000. Ambient air pollution-related deaths increased from 361 000 in 2015, to 383 000 in 2019, with the greatest increases in the most highly developed countries. The majority of deaths due to ambient air pollution are caused by non-communicable diseases. The loss in economic output in 2019 due to air pollution-related morbidity and mortality was $3·02 billion in Ethiopia (1·16% of GDP), $1·63 billion in Ghana (0·95% of GDP), and $349 million in Rwanda (1·19% of GDP). PM_2·5 pollution was estimated to be responsible for 1·96 billion lost IQ points in African children in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Ambient air pollution is increasing across Africa. In the absence of deliberate intervention, it will increase morbidity and mortality, diminish economic productivity, impair human capital formation, and undercut development. Because most African countries are still early in development, they have opportunities to transition rapidly to wind and solar energy, avoiding a reliance on fossil fuel-based economies and minimising pollution.

FUNDING

UN Environment Programme.

An enhanced procedure for urban mobile methane leak detection

Leaked methane from natural gas distribution pipelines is a significant human and environmental health problem in urban areas. To assess this risk, urban mobile methane leak surveys were conducted, using innovative methodology, on the streets of Hartford, Danbury, and New London, Connecticut, in March 2019. The Hartford survey was done to determine if results from a 2016 survey (Keyes et al., 2019) were persistent, and surveys in additional towns were done to determine if similar findings could be made using an identical approach. Results show that Hartford continues to be problematic, with approximately 3.4 leaks per road mile observed in 2016 and 4.3 leaks per mile estimated in 2019, similar to that previously found in Boston, Massachusetts (Phillips et al., 2013). A preliminary estimate of methane leaks in Hartford is 0.86 metric tonnes per day (or 313 metric tonnes per year), equivalent to 42,840 cubic feet per day of natural gas, and a daily gas consumption of approximately 214 U.S. households. Moreover, the surveys and analyses done for Danbury and New London also reveal problematic leaks, particularly for Danbury with an estimated 3.6 leaks per mile. Although road miles covered in New London were more limited, the survey revealed leak-prone areas, albeit with a range of methane readings lower than those in Hartford and Danbury. Data collection methods for all studies is first reported here and are readily transferable to similar urban settings. This work demonstrates the actionable value that can be gained from data-driven evaluations of urban pipeline performance, and if supplemented with a map of leak-prone pipe geo-location, and information on pipeline operating pressures, will provide a spatial database facilitating proactive repair and replacement of leak-prone urban pipes, a considerable improvement compared to reactive mitigation of human-reported leaks. While this work pertains to the selected urban towns in the Northeast, it exemplifies issues and opportunities nationwide in the United States.