Limits to adaptation along environmental gradients

Extreme genetic signatures of local adaptation in a notorious rice pest, Chilo suppressalis

Climatic variation stands as a significant driving force behind genetic differentiation and the evolution of adaptive traits. Chilo (C.) suppressalis, commonly known as the rice stem borer, is a highly destructive pest that crucially harms rice production. The lack of natural population genomics data has hindered a more thorough understanding of its climate adaptation, particularly the genetic basis underlying adaptive traits. To overcome this obstacle, our study employed completely resequenced genomes of 384 individuals to explore the population structure, demographic history, and gene flow of C. suppressalis in China. This study observed that its gene flow occurred asymmetrically, moving from central populations to peripheral populations. Using genome-wide selection scans and genotype-environment association studies, we identified potential loci that may be associated with climatic adaptation. The most robust signal was found to be associated with cold tolerance, linked to a homeobox gene, goosecoid (GSC), whose expression level was significantly different in low and high latitudes. Moreover, downregulating the expression of this gene by RNAi enhances its cold tolerance phenotypes. Our findings have uncovered and delved into the genetic foundation of the ability of C. suppressalis to adapt to its environment. This is essential in ensuring the continued effectiveness and sustainability of novel control techniques.

Genomic Signatures of Adaptation Across a Precipitation Gradient From Niche Centre to Niche Edge

Evaluating the potential for species to adapt to changing climates relies on understanding current patterns of adaptive variation and selection, which might vary in intensity across a species' niche, hence affecting our inference of where adaptation might be most important in the future. Here, we investigate the genetic basis of adaptation in Lactuca serriola along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel approaching the species' arid niche limit and use candidate loci to inform predictions of its past and future adaptive evolution. Environmental association analyses combined with generalised dissimilarity models revealed 108 candidate genes showing nonlinear shifts in allele frequencies across the gradient, with 66% of these genes under strong selection near the dry niche edge. We detected selection acting on genes with separate suites of biological functions, specifically related to phenology and responses to environmental stressors, including osmotic stress, at the dry niche edge, and related to biotic interactions and defence closer to the niche centre. The adaptive genetic composition of populations, as inferred through polygenic risk scores, point to intensified selection operating towards the dry niche edge. However, inference of past and future evolutionary change predicts larger adaptive shifts occurring in the mesic part of the range, which is most affected by climate change. Our study reveals that adaptive shifts in response to climate change can be heterogeneous across a species' range and not necessarily strongest near its niche edge.

Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: Aedes sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, promoting expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis, a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in mosquito heat tolerance, and phenotypic trade-offs in tolerance to prolonged versus acute heat exposure. Further, we found genomic variation associated with prolonged heat tolerance was clustered in several regions of the genome, suggesting the presence of larger structural variants such as chromosomal inversions. A simple evolutionary model based on our data estimates that the maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance will exceed the projected rate of climate warming, implying the potential for mosquitoes to track warming via genetic adaptation.

Impacts of limits to adaptation on population and community persistence in a changing environment

A key issue in predicting how ecosystems will respond to environmental change is understanding why populations and communities are able to live and reproduce in some parts of ecological and geographical space, but not in others. The limits to adaptation that cause ecological niches to vary in position and width across taxa and environmental contexts determine how communities and ecosystems emerge from selection on phenotypes and genomes. Ecological trade-offs mean that phenotypes can only be optimal in some environments unless these trade-offs can be reshaped through evolution. However, the amount and rate of evolution are limited by genetic architectures, developmental systems (including phenotypic plasticity) and the legacies of recent evolutionary history. Here, we summarize adaptive limits and their ecological consequences in time (evolutionary rescue) and space (species' range limits), relating theoretical predictions to empirical tests. We then highlight key avenues for future research in this area, from better connections between evolution and demography to analysing the genomic architecture of adaptation, the dynamics of plasticity and interactions between the biotic and abiotic environment. Progress on these questions will help us understand when and where evolution and phenotypic plasticity will allow species and communities to persist in the face of rapid environmental change.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

The structure of the environment influences the patterns and genetics of local adaptation

Environmental heterogeneity can lead to spatially varying selection, which can, in turn, lead to local adaptation. Population genetic models have shown that the pattern of environmental variation in space can strongly influence the evolution of local adaptation. In particular, when environmental variation is highly autocorrelated in space local adaptation will more readily evolve. However, there have been few attempts to test this prediction empirically or characterize the consequences it would have for the genetic architecture underlying local adaptation. In this study, I analyze a large-scale provenance trial conducted on lodgepole pine and find suggestive evidence that spatial autocorrelation in environmental variation is related to the strength of local adaptation that has evolved in that species. Motivated by those results, I use simulations to model local adaptation to different spatial patterns of environmental variation. The simulations confirm that local adaptation is expected to increase with the degree of spatial autocorrelation in the selective environment, but also show that highly heterogeneous environments are more likely to exhibit high variation in local adaptation, a result not previously described. I find that the spatial pattern of environmental variation influences the genetic architectures underlying local adaptation. In highly autocorrelated environments, the genetic architecture of local adaptation tends to be composed of high-frequency alleles with small phenotypic effects. In weakly autocorrelated environments, locally adaptive alleles may have larger phenotypic effects but are present at lower frequencies across species' ranges and experience more evolutionary turnover. Overall, this work emphasizes the profound importance that the spatial pattern of selection can have on the evolution of local adaptation and how spatial autocorrelation should be considered when formulating hypotheses in ecological and genetic studies.

Is adaptation associated with long-term persistence beyond a geographic range limit?

Adaptation to new habitats might facilitate species' range shifts in response to climate change. In 2005, we transplanted experimental populations of coastal dune plant Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia into 4 sites within and 1 site beyond its poleward range limit. Beyond-range transplants had high fitness but often delayed reproduction. To test for adaptation associated with experimental range expansion, we transplanted descendants from beyond- and within-range populations after 10 generations in situ into 2 sites within the range, 1 at the range edge, and 2 sites beyond the range. We expected to detect adaptation to beyond-range conditions due to substantial genetic variation within experimental populations and environmental variation among sites. However, individuals from beyond-range experimental populations were not fitter than those from within the range when planted at either beyond-range site, indicating no adaptation to the beyond-range site or beyond-range environments in general. Beyond-range descendants also did not suffer lower fitness within the range. Although reproduction was again delayed beyond the range, late reproduction was not favored more strongly beyond than within the range, and beyond-range descendants did not delay reproduction more than within-range descendants. Persistence in beyond-range environments may not require adaptation, which could allow a rapid response to climate change.

Spatial variation in genomic signatures of local adaptation during the cane toad invasion of Australia

Adaptive evolution can facilitate species' range expansions across environmentally heterogeneous landscapes. However, serial founder effects can limit the efficacy of selection, and the evolution of increased dispersal during range expansions may result in gene flow swamping local adaptation. Here, we study how genetic drift, gene flow and selection interact during the cane toad's (Rhinella marina) invasion across the heterogeneous landscape of Australia. Following its introduction in 1935, the cane toad colonised eastern Australia and established several stable range edges. The ongoing, more rapid range expansion in north-central Australia has occurred concomitant with an evolved increase in dispersal capacity. Using reduced representation genomic data of Australian cane toads from the expansion front and from two areas of their established range, we test the hypothesis that high gene flow constrains local adaptation at the expansion front relative to established areas. Genetic analyses indicate the three study areas are genetically distinct but show similar levels of allelic richness, heterozygosity and inbreeding. Markedly higher gene flow or recency of colonisation at the expansion front have likely hindered local adaptation at the time of sampling, as indicated by reduced slopes of genetic-environment associations (GEAs) estimated using a novel application of geographically weighted regression that accounts for allele surfing; GEA slopes are significantly steeper in established parts of the range. Our work bolsters evidence supporting adaptation of invasive species post-introduction and adds novel evidence for differing strengths of evolutionary forces among geographic areas with different invasion histories.

Environmental gradients mediate dispersal evolution during biological invasions

Rapid evolution of increased dispersal at the edge of a range expansion can accelerate invasions. However, populations expanding across environmental gradients often face challenging environments that reduce fitness of dispersing individuals. We used an eco-evolutionary model to explore how environmental gradients influence dispersal evolution and, in turn, modulate the speed and predictability of invasion. Environmental gradients opposed evolution of increased dispersal during invasion, even leading to evolution of reduced dispersal along steeper gradients. Counterintuitively, reduced dispersal could allow for faster expansion by minimizing maladaptive gene flow and facilitating adaptation. While dispersal evolution across homogenous landscapes increased both the mean and variance of expansion speed, these increases were greatly dampened by environmental gradients. We illustrate our model's potential application to prediction and management of invasions by parameterizing it with data from a recent invertebrate range expansion. Overall, we find that environmental gradients strongly modulate the effect of dispersal evolution on invasion trajectories.

Ecological trade-offs drive phenotypic and genetic differentiation of Arabidopsis thaliana in Europe

Plant diversity is shaped by trade-offs between traits related to competitive ability, propagule dispersal, and stress resistance. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how these trade-offs influence species distribution and population dynamics. In Arabidopsis thaliana, recent genetic analyses revealed a group of cosmopolitan genotypes that successfully recolonized Europe from its center after the last glaciation, excluding older (relict) lineages from the distribution except for their north and south margins. Here, we tested the hypothesis that cosmopolitans expanded due to higher colonization ability, while relicts persisted at the margins due to higher tolerance to competition and/or stress. We compared the phenotypic and genetic differentiation between 71 European genotypes originating from the center, and the south and north margins. We showed that a trade-off between plant fecundity and seed mass shapes the differentiation of A. thaliana in Europe, suggesting that the success of the cosmopolitan groups could be explained by their high dispersal ability. However, at both north and south margins, we found evidence of selection for alleles conferring low dispersal but highly competitive and stress-resistance abilities. This study sheds light on the role of ecological trade-offs as evolutionary drivers of the distribution and dynamics of plant populations.

Genotype-by-environment interactions and local adaptation shape selection in the US National Chip Processing Trial

KEY MESSAGE

We find evidence of selection for local adaptation and extensive genotype-by-environment interaction in the potato National Chip Processing Trial (NCPT). We present a novel method for dissecting the interplay between selection, local adaptation and environmental response in plant breeding schemes. Balancing local adaptation and the desire for widely adapted cultivars is challenging for plant breeders and makes genotype-by-environment interactions (GxE) an important target of selection. Selecting for GxE requires plant breeders to evaluate plants across multiple environments. One way breeders have accomplished this is to test advanced materials across many locations. Public potato breeders test advanced breeding material in the National Chip Processing Trial (NCPT), a public-private partnership where breeders from ten institutions submit advanced chip lines to be evaluated in up to ten locations across the country. These clones are genotyped and phenotyped for important agronomic traits. We used these data to interrogate the NCPT for GxE. Further, because breeders submitting clones to the NCPT select in a relatively small geographic range for the first 3 years of selection, we examined these data for evidence of incidental selection for local adaptation, and the alleles underlying it, using an environmental genome-wide association study (envGWAS). We found genomic regions associated with continuous environmental variables and discrete breeding programs, as well as regions of the genome potentially underlying GxE for yield.

Density-Dependent Selection during Range Expansion Affects Expansion Load in Life History Traits

AbstractModels of range expansion have independently explored fitness consequences of life history trait evolution and increased rates of genetic drift-or "allele surfing"-during spatial spread, but no previous model has examined the interactions between these two processes. Here, using spatially explicit simulations, we explore an ecologically complex range expansion scenario that combines density-dependent selection with allele surfing to asses the genetic and fitness consequences of density-dependent selection on the evolution of life history traits. We demonstrate that density-dependent selection on the range edge acts differently depending on the life history trait and can either diminish or enhance allele surfing. Specifically, we show that selection at the range edge is always weaker at sites affecting competitive ability (K-selected traits) than at sites affecting birth rate (r-selected traits). We then link differences in the frequency of deleterious mutations to differences in the efficacy of selection and rate of mutation accumulation across distinct life history traits. Finally, we demonstrate that the observed fitness consequences of allele surfing depend on the population density in which expansion load is measured. Our work highlights the complex relationship between ecology and expressed genetic load, which will be important to consider when interpreting both experimental and field studies of range expansion.

Phylogeography and phenotypic wing shape variation in a damselfly across populations in Europe

BACKGROUND

Describing geographical variation in morphology of organisms in combination with data on genetic differentiation and biogeography can provide important information on how natural selection shapes such variation. Here we study genetic structure using ddRAD seq and wing shape variation using geometric morphometrics in 14 populations of the damselfly Lestes sponsa along its latitudinal range in Europe.

RESULTS

The genetic analysis showed a significant, yet relatively weak population structure with high genetic heterozygosity and low inbreeding coefficients, indicating that neutral processes contributed very little to the observed wing shape differences. The genetic analysis also showed that some regions of the genome (about 10%) are putatively shaped by selection. The phylogenetic analysis showed that the Spanish and French populations were the ancestral ones with northern Swedish and Finnish populations being the most derived ones. We found that wing shape differed significantly among populations and showed a significant quadratic (but weak) relationship with latitude. This latitudinal relationship was largely attributed to allometric effects of wing size, but non-allometric variation also explained a portion of this relationship. However, wing shape showed no phylogenetic signal suggesting that lineage-specific variation did not contribute to the variation along the latitudinal gradient. In contrast, wing size, which is correlated with body size in L. sponsa, had a strong negative correlation with latitude.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest a relatively weak population structure among the sampled populations across Europe, but a clear differentiation between south and north populations. The observed geographic phenotypic variation in wing shape may have been affected by different local selection pressures or environmental effects.

Integrating learning into animal range dynamics under rapid human-induced environmental change

Human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) is creating environments deviating considerably from natural habitats in which species evolved. Concurrently, climate warming is pushing species' climatic envelopes to geographic regions that offer novel ecological conditions. The persistence of species is likely affected by the interplay between the degree of ecological novelty and phenotypic plasticity, which in turn may shape an organism's range-shifting ability. Current modelling approaches that forecast animal ranges are characterized by a static representation of the relationship between habitat use and fitness, which may bias predictions under conditions imposed by HIREC. We argue that accounting for dynamic species-resource relationships can increase the ecological realism of range shift predictions. Our rationale builds on the concepts of ecological fitting, the process whereby individuals form successful novel biotic associations based on the suite of traits they carry at the time of encountering the novel condition, and behavioural plasticity, in particular learning. These concepts have revolutionized our view on fitness in novel ecological settings, and the way these processes may influence species ranges under HIREC. We have integrated them into a model of range expansion as a conceptual proof of principle highlighting the potentially substantial role of learning ability in range shifts under HIREC.

Genomic Tools in Biological Invasions: Current State and Future Frontiers

Human activities are accelerating rates of biological invasions and climate-driven range expansions globally, yet we understand little of how genomic processes facilitate the invasion process. Although most of the literature has focused on underlying phenotypic correlates of invasiveness, advances in genomic technologies are showing a strong link between genomic variation and invasion success. Here, we consider the ability of genomic tools and technologies to (i) inform mechanistic understanding of biological invasions and (ii) solve real-world issues in predicting and managing biological invasions. For both, we examine the current state of the field and discuss how genomics can be leveraged in the future. In addition, we make recommendations pertinent to broader research issues, such as data sovereignty, metadata standards, collaboration, and science communication best practices that will require concerted efforts from the global invasion genomics community.

Rapid evolution of novel biotic interactions in the UK Brown Argus butterfly uses genomic variation from across its geographical range

Understanding the rate and extent to which populations can adapt to novel environments at their ecological margins is fundamental to predicting the persistence of biological communities during ongoing and rapid global change. Recent range expansion in response to climate change in the UK butterfly Aricia agestis is associated with the evolution of novel interactions with a larval food plant, and the loss of its ability to use an ancestral host species. Using ddRAD analysis of 61,210 variable SNPs from 261 females from throughout the UK range of this species, we identify genomic regions at multiple chromosomes that are associated with evolutionary responses, and their association with demographic history and ecological variation. Gene flow appears widespread throughout the range, despite the apparently fragmented nature of the habitats used by this species. Patterns of haplotype variation between selected and neutral genomic regions suggest that evolution associated with climate adaptation is polygenic, resulting from the independent spread of alleles throughout the established range of this species, rather than the colonization of pre-adapted genotypes from coastal populations. These data suggest that rapid responses to climate change do not depend on the availability of pre-adapted genotypes. Instead, the evolution of novel forms of biotic interaction in A. agestis has occurred during range expansion, through the assembly of novel genotypes from alleles from multiple localities.

Partial Clonality Expands the Opportunity for Spatial Adaptation

AbstractReproductive mode may strongly impact adaptation in spatially varying populations linked by dispersal, especially when sexual and clonal offspring differ in dispersal. We determined how spatial structure affects adaptation in populations with mixed clonal and sexual reproduction. In a source-sink quantitative genetic deterministic model (with stabilizing selection around different optima), greater clonal reproduction or parent-offspring association (a measure of the part of the parent's phenotype other than the additive genetic component inherited by clonal offspring) increased the selective difference (difference between phenotypic optima) allowing sink populations to adapt. Given dispersal differences between clonally and sexually produced juveniles, adaptation increased with an increasing fraction of clonal dispersers. When considering migrational meltdown, partially clonal reproduction reduced cases where dispersal caused habitat loss. Stochastic individual-based simulations support these results, although the effect of differential dispersal was reversed, with decreased clonal dispersal allowing greater adaptation. These results parallel earlier findings that for an instantaneous shift in phenotypic optimum, increasing clonality allowed population persistence for a greater shift; here, selective change is spatial rather than temporal. These results may help explain the success of many partially clonal organisms in invading new habitats, complementing traditional explanations based on avoiding Allee effects.

Distribution and morphological variation of tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) along an elevation gradient

Knowing how species and communities respond to environmental change is fundamental in the context of climate change. The search for patterns of abundance and phenotypic variation along altitudinal gradients can provide evidence on adaptive limits. We evaluated the species abundance and the variation in morphometric and stomatal characters in five tree ferns species (Cyathea fulva, C. divergens, C. myosuroides, Alsophila firma and Gymnosphaera salvinii) distributed along an elevation gradient in a well-preserved Mexican cloud forest. Variation at the community and species level was assessed using exploratory and multivariate data analysis methods. We wanted to explore if the species abundance is environmentally determined, to determine the degree of variation along the elevation gradient, to test for differences between zones and associations with elevation, humidity and soil nutrients, and to assess contribution of the intra- and interspecific variation to the community response to elevation and soil nutrients. The studied fern community showed strong species turnover along the elevation gradient, with some influence of soil nutrient concentration, supporting environmental determinism. All measured characters displayed variation along the gradient. Stomatal characters (size and density) had significantly less variation than morphometric characters (trunk diameter, stipe length and blade length), but stomatal density also shows interesting intraspecific patterns. In general, patterns within the fern community suggest a strong influence of species identity, especially of species inhabiting the lower edge of the cloud forest, which showed the clearest morphometric and stomatal patterns, associated to contrasting environments rather than to changes in elevation. The coincidence between morphometric and stomatal patterns in this area suggest hydraulic adjustments in response to contrasting environments. Our results provide evidence that tree ferns species respond to environmental changes through adjustments of morphometric plasticity and stomatal density, which is relevant to predict possible responses to variation in environmental conditions resulting from climate change.

Bacterial motility can govern the dynamics of antibiotic resistance evolution

Spatial heterogeneity in antibiotic concentrations is thought to accelerate the evolution of antibiotic resistance, but current theory and experiments have overlooked the effect of cell motility on bacterial adaptation. Here, we study bacterial evolution in antibiotic landscapes with a quantitative model where bacteria evolve under the stochastic processes of proliferation, death, mutation and migration. Numerical and analytical results show that cell motility can both accelerate and decelerate bacterial adaptation by affecting the degree of genotypic mixing and ecological competition. Moreover, we find that for sufficiently high rates, cell motility can limit bacterial survival, and we derive conditions for all these regimes. Similar patterns are observed in more complex scenarios, namely where bacteria can bias their motion in chemical gradients (chemotaxis) or switch between motility phenotypes either stochastically or in a density-dependent manner. Overall, our work reveals limits to bacterial adaptation in antibiotic landscapes that are set by cell motility.

Purging due to self-fertilization does not prevent accumulation of expansion load

As species expand their geographic ranges, colonizing populations face novel ecological conditions, such as new environments and limited mates, and suffer from evolutionary consequences of demographic change through bottlenecks and mutation load accumulation. Self-fertilization is often observed at species range edges and, in addition to countering the lack of mates, is hypothesized as an evolutionary advantage against load accumulation through increased homozygosity and purging. We study how selfing impacts the accumulation of genetic load during range expansion via purging and/or speed of colonization. Using simulations, we disentangle inbreeding effects due to demography versus due to selfing and find that selfers expand faster, but still accumulate load, regardless of mating system. The severity of variants contributing to this load, however, differs across mating system: higher selfing rates purge large-effect recessive variants leaving a burden of smaller-effect alleles. We compare these predictions to the mixed-mating plant Arabis alpina, using whole-genome sequences from refugial outcrossing populations versus expanded selfing populations. Empirical results indicate accumulation of expansion load along with evidence of purging in selfing populations, concordant with our simulations, suggesting that while purging is a benefit of selfing evolving during range expansions, it is not sufficient to prevent load accumulation due to range expansion.

Hidden genetic variation in plasticity provides the potential for rapid adaptation to novel environments

Rapid environmental change is forcing populations into environments where plasticity will no longer maintain fitness. When populations are exposed to novel environments, evolutionary theory predicts that genetic variation in fitness will increase and should be associated with genetic differences in plasticity. If true, then genetic variation in plasticity can increase adaptive potential in novel environments, and population persistence via evolutionary rescue is more likely. To test whether genetic variation in fitness increases in novel environments and is associated with plasticity, we transplanted 8149 clones of 314 genotypes of a Sicilian daisy (Senecio chrysanthemifolius) within and outside its native range, and quantified genetic variation in fitness, and plasticity in leaf traits and gene expression. Although mean fitness declined by 87% in the novel environment, genetic variance in fitness increased threefold and was correlated with plasticity in leaf traits. High fitness genotypes showed greater plasticity in gene expression, but lower plasticity in most leaf traits. Interestingly, genotypes with the highest fitness in the novel environment had the lowest fitness at the native site. These results suggest that standing genetic variation in plasticity could help populations to persist and adapt to novel environments, despite remaining hidden in native environments.

The Contribution of Epigenetics to Evolutionary Adaptation in Zingiber kawagoii Hayata (Zingiberaceae) Endemic to Taiwan

We epigenotyped 211 individuals from 17 Zingiber kawagoii populations using methylation-sensitive amplification polymorphism (MSAP) and investigated the associations of methylated (mMSAP) and unmethylated (uMSAP) loci with 16 environmental variables. Data regarding genetic variation based on amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) were obtained from an earlier study. We found a significant positive correlation between genetic and epigenetic variation. Significantly higher mean mMSAP and uMSAP uH_E (unbiased expected heterozygosity: 0.223 and 0.131, respectively, p < 0.001) per locus than that estimated based on AFLP (uH_E = 0.104) were found. Genome scans detected 10 mMSAP and 9 uMSAP F_ST outliers associated with various environmental variables. A significant linear fit for 11 and 12 environmental variables with outlier mMSAP and uMSAP ordination, respectively, generated using full model redundancy analysis (RDA) was found. When conditioned on geography, partial RDA revealed that five and six environmental variables, respectively, were the most important variables influencing outlier mMSAP and uMSAP variation. We found higher genetic (average F_ST = 0.298) than epigenetic (mMSAP and uMSAP average F_ST = 0.044 and 0.106, respectively) differentiation and higher genetic isolation-by-distance (IBD) than epigenetic IBD. Strong epigenetic isolation-by-environment (IBE) was found, particularly based on the outlier data, controlling either for geography (mMSAP and uMSAP β_E = 0.128 and 0.132, respectively, p = 0.001) or for genetic structure (mMSAP and uMSAP β_E = 0.105 and 0.136, respectively, p = 0.001). Our results suggest that epigenetic variants can be substrates for natural selection linked to environmental variables and complement genetic changes in the adaptive evolution of Z. kawagoii populations.

Climate adaptation and vulnerability of foundation species in a global change hotspot

Climate change is altering species ranges, and relative abundances within ranges, as populations become differentially adapted and vulnerable to the climates they face. Understanding present species ranges, whether species harbour and exchange adaptive variants, and how variants are distributed across landscapes undergoing rapid change, is therefore crucial to predicting responses to future climates and informing conservation strategies. Such insights are nonetheless lacking for most species of conservation concern. We assess genomic patterns of neutral variation, climate adaptation and climate vulnerability (offsets in predicted distributions of putatively adaptive variants across present and future landscapes) for sister foundation species, the marine tubeworms Galeolaria caespitosa and Galeolaria gemineoa, in a sentinel region for climate change impacts. We find that species are genetically isolated despite uncovering sympatry in their ranges, show parallel and nonparallel signals of thermal adaptation on spatial scales smaller than gene flow across their ranges, and are predicted to face different risks of maladaptation under future temperatures across their ranges. Our findings have implications for understanding local adaptation in the face of gene flow, and generate spatially explicit predictions for climatic disruption of adaptation and species distributions in coastal ecosystems that could guide experimental validation and conservation planning.

Pattern of Adaptive Divergence in Zingiber kawagoii Hayata (Zingiberaceae) along a Narrow Latitudinal Range

Ecological and evolutionary processes linking adaptation to environment are related to species’ range shifts. In this study, we employed amplified-fragment-length-polymorphism-based genome scan methods to identify candidate loci among Zingiber kawagoii populations inhabiting varying environments distributed at low to middle elevations (143–1488 m) in a narrow latitudinal range (between 21.90 and 25.30° N). Here, we show evidence of selection driving the divergence of Z. kawagoii. Twenty-six F_ST outliers were detected, which were significantly correlated with various environmental variables. The allele frequencies of nine F_ST outliers were either positively or negatively correlated with the population mean F_ST. Using several independent approaches, we found environmental variables act in a combinatorial fashion, best explaining outlier genetic variation. Nonetheless, we found that adaptive divergence was affected mostly by annual temperature range, and it is significantly positively correlated with latitude and significantly negatively correlated with the population mean F_ST. This study addresses a latitudinal pattern of changes in annual temperature range (which ranged from 13.8 °C in the Lanyu population to 18.5 °C in the Wulai population) and emphasizes the pattern of latitudinal population divergence closely linked to the allele frequencies of adaptive loci, acting in a narrow latitudinal range. Our results also indicate environmentally dependent local adaptation for both leading- and trailing-edge populations.

Population genetic models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants: A review in light of SARS-CoV-2 evolution

Theoretical population genetics has long studied the arrival and geographic spread of adaptive variants through the analysis of mathematical models of dispersal and natural selection. These models take on a renewed interest in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially given the consequences that novel adaptive variants have had on the course of the pandemic as they have spread through global populations. Here, we review theoretical models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants and identify areas to be improved in future work, toward a better understanding of variants of concern in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolution and other contemporary applications. As we describe, characteristics of pandemics such as COVID-19-such as the impact of long-distance travel patterns and the overdispersion of lineages due to superspreading events-suggest new directions for improving upon existing population genetic models.

Eco-evolutionary model on spatial graphs reveals how habitat structure affects phenotypic differentiation

Differentiation mechanisms are influenced by the properties of the landscape over which individuals interact, disperse and evolve. Here, we investigate how habitat connectivity and habitat heterogeneity affect phenotypic differentiation by formulating a stochastic eco-evolutionary model where individuals are structured over a spatial graph. We combine analytical insights into the eco-evolutionary dynamics with numerical simulations to understand how the graph topology and the spatial distribution of habitat types affect differentiation. We show that not only low connectivity but also heterogeneity in connectivity promotes neutral differentiation, due to increased competition in highly connected vertices. Habitat assortativity, a measure of habitat spatial auto-correlation in graphs, additionally drives differentiation under habitat-dependent selection. While assortative graphs systematically amplify adaptive differentiation, they can foster or depress neutral differentiation depending on the migration regime. By formalising the eco-evolutionary and spatial dynamics of biological populations on graphs, our study establishes fundamental links between landscape features and phenotypic differentiation.

Population demography maintains biogeographic boundaries

Global biodiversity is organised into biogeographic regions that comprise distinct biotas. The contemporary factors maintaining differences in species composition between regions are poorly understood. Given evidence that populations with sufficient genetic variation can adapt to fill new habitats, it is surprising that more homogenisation of species assemblages across regions has not occurred. Theory suggests that expansion across biogeographic regions could be limited by reduced adaptive capacity due to demographic variation along environmental gradients, but this possibility has not been empirically explored. Using three independently curated data sets describing continental patterns of mammalian demography and population genetics, we show that populations near biogeographic boundaries have lower effective population sizes and genetic diversity, and are more genetically differentiated. These patterns are consistent with reduced adaptive capacity in areas where one biogeographic region transitions into the next. That these patterns are replicated across mammals suggests they are stable and generalisable in their contribution to long-term limits on biodiversity homogenisation. Understanding the contemporary processes that maintain compositional differences among regional biotas is crucial for our understanding of the current and future organisation of global biodiversity.

How Could the Use of Crop Wild Relatives in Breeding Increase the Adaptation of Crops to Marginal Environments?

Alongside the use of fertilizer and chemical control of weeds, pests, and diseases modern breeding has been very successful in generating cultivars that have increased agricultural production several fold in favorable environments. These typically homogeneous cultivars (either homozygous inbreds or hybrids derived from inbred parents) are bred under optimal field conditions and perform well when there is sufficient water and nutrients. However, such optimal conditions are rare globally; indeed, a large proportion of arable land could be considered marginal for agricultural production. Marginal agricultural land typically has poor fertility and/or shallow soil depth, is subject to soil erosion, and often occurs in semi-arid or saline environments. Moreover, these marginal environments are expected to expand with ongoing climate change and progressive degradation of soil and water resources globally. Crop wild relatives (CWRs), most often used in breeding as sources of biotic resistance, often also possess traits adapting them to marginal environments. Wild progenitors have been selected over the course of their evolutionary history to maintain their fitness under a diverse range of stresses. Conversely, modern breeding for broad adaptation has reduced genetic diversity and increased genetic vulnerability to biotic and abiotic challenges. There is potential to exploit genetic heterogeneity, as opposed to genetic uniformity, in breeding for the utilization of marginal lands. This review discusses the adaptive traits that could improve the performance of cultivars in marginal environments and breeding strategies to deploy them.

Increasing temporal variance leads to stable species range limits

What prevents populations of a species from adapting to the novel environments outside the species' geographic distribution? Previous models highlighted how gene flow across spatial environmental gradients determines species expansion versus extinction and the location of species range limits. However, space is only one of two axes of environmental variation-environments also vary in time, and we know temporal environmental variation has important consequences for population demography and evolution. We used analytical and individual-based evolutionary models to explore how temporal variation in environmental conditions influences the spread of populations across a spatial environmental gradient. We find that temporal variation greatly alters our predictions for range dynamics compared to temporally static environments. When temporal variance is equal across the landscape, the fate of species (expansion versus extinction) is determined by the interaction between the degree of temporal autocorrelation in environmental fluctuations and the steepness of the spatial environmental gradient. When the magnitude of temporal variance changes across the landscape, stable range limits form where this variance increases maladaptation sufficiently to prevent local persistence. These results illustrate the pivotal influence of temporal variation on the likelihood of populations colonizing novel habitats and the location of species range limits.

Effects of species interactions on the potential for evolution at species' range limits

Species' ranges are limited by both ecological and evolutionary constraints. While there is a growing appreciation that ecological constraints include interactions among species, like competition, we know relatively little about how interactions contribute to evolutionary constraints at species' niche and range limits. Building on concepts from community ecology and evolutionary biology, we review how biotic interactions can influence adaptation at range limits by impeding the demographic conditions that facilitate evolution (which we term a 'demographic pathway to adaptation'), and/or by imposing evolutionary trade-offs with the abiotic environment (a 'trade-offs pathway'). While theory for the former is well-developed, theory for the trade-offs pathway is not, and empirical evidence is scarce for both. Therefore, we develop a model to illustrate how fitness trade-offs along biotic and abiotic gradients could affect the potential for range expansion and niche evolution following ecological release. The model shows that which genotypes are favoured at species' range edges can depend strongly on the biotic context and the nature of fitness trade-offs. Experiments that characterize trade-offs and properly account for biotic context are needed to predict which species will expand their niche or range in response to environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Introduction to the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments'

Understanding where, when and how species' ranges will be modified is both a fundamental problem and essential to predicting how spatio-temporal environmental changes in abiotic and biotic factors impact biodiversity. Notably, different species may respond disparately to similar environmental changes: some species may overcome an environmental change only with difficulty or not at all, while other species may readily overcome the same change. Ranges may contract, expand or move. The drivers and consequences of this variability in species' responses remain puzzling. Importantly, changes in a species' range creates feedbacks to the environmental conditions, populations and communities in its previous and current range, rendering population genetic, population dynamic and community processes inextricably linked. Understanding these links is critical in guiding biodiversity management and conservation efforts. This theme issue presents current thinking about the factors and mechanisms that limit and/or modify species' ranges. It also outlines different approaches to detect changes in species' distributions, and illustrates cases of range modifications in several taxa. Overall, this theme issue highlights the urgency of understanding species' ranges but shows that we are only just beginning to disentangle the processes involved. One way forward is to unite ecology with evolutionary biology and empirical with modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Environmental variation and biotic interactions limit adaptation at ecological margins: lessons from rainforest Drosophila and European butterflies

Models of local adaptation to spatially varying selection predict that maximum rates of evolution are determined by the interaction between increased adaptive potential owing to increased genetic variation, and the cost genetic variation brings by reducing population fitness. We discuss existing and new results from our laboratory assays and field transplants of rainforest Drosophila and UK butterflies along environmental gradients, which try to test these predictions in natural populations. Our data suggest that: (i) local adaptation along ecological gradients is not consistently observed in time and space, especially where biotic and abiotic interactions affect both gradient steepness and genetic variation in fitness; (ii) genetic variation in fitness observed in the laboratory is only sometimes visible to selection in the field, suggesting that demographic costs can remain high without increasing adaptive potential; and (iii) antagonistic interactions between species reduce local productivity, especially at ecological margins. Such antagonistic interactions steepen gradients and may increase the cost of adaptation by increasing its dimensionality. However, where biotic interactions do evolve, rapid range expansion can follow. Future research should test how the environmental sensitivity of genotypes determines their ecological exposure, and its effects on genetic variation in fitness, to predict the probability of evolutionary rescue at ecological margins. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Understanding the biology of species' ranges: when and how does evolution change the rules of ecological engagement?

Understanding processes that limit species' ranges has been a core issue in ecology and evolutionary biology for many decades, and has become increasingly important given the need to predict the responses of biological communities to rapid environmental change. However, we still have a poor understanding of evolution at range limits and its capacity to change the ecological 'rules of engagement' that define these communities, as well as the time frame over which this occurs. Here we link papers in the current volume to some key concepts involved in the interactions between evolutionary and ecological processes at species' margins. In particular, we separate hypotheses about species' margins that focus on hard evolutionary limits, which determine how genotypes interact with their environment, from those concerned with soft evolutionary limits, which determine where and when local adaptation can persist in space and time. We show how theoretical models and empirical studies highlight conditions under which gene flow can expand local limits as well as contain them. In doing so, we emphasize the complex interplay between selection, demography and population structure throughout a species' geographical and ecological range that determines its persistence in biological communities. However, despite some impressively detailed studies on range limits, particularly in invertebrates and plants, few generalizations have emerged that can predict evolutionary responses at ecological margins. We outline some directions for future work such as considering the impact of structural genetic variants and metapopulation structure on limits, and the interaction between range limits and the evolution of mating systems and non-random dispersal. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Temporal variation may have diverse impacts on range limits

Environmental fluctuations are pervasive in nature, but the influence of non-directional temporal variation on range limits has received scant attention. We synthesize insights from the literature and use simple models to make conceptual points about the potentially wide range of ecological and evolutionary effects of temporal variation on range limits. Because organisms respond nonlinearly to environmental conditions, temporal variation can directionally alter long-term growth rates, either to shrink or to expand ranges. We illustrate this diversity of outcomes with a model of competition along a mortality gradient. Temporal variation can permit transitions between alternative states, potentially facilitating range expansion. We show this for variation in dispersal, using simple source-sink population models (with strong Allee effects, or with gene flow hampering local adaptation). Temporal variation enhances extinction risk owing to demographic stochasticity, rare events, and loss of genetic variation, all tending to shrink ranges. However, specific adaptations to exploit variation (including dispersal) may permit larger ranges than in similar but constant environments. Grappling with temporal variation is essential both to understand eco-evolutionary dynamics at range limits and to guide conservation and management strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Variation in intraspecific demography drives localised concordance but species-wide discordance in response to past climatic change

BACKGROUND

Understanding how species biology may facilitate resilience to climate change remains a critical factor in detecting and protecting species at risk of extinction. Many studies have focused on the role of particular ecological traits in driving species responses, but less so on demographic history and levels of standing genetic variation. Additionally, spatial variation in the interaction of demographic and adaptive factors may further complicate prediction of species responses to environmental change. We used environmental and genomic datasets to reconstruct the phylogeographic histories of two ecologically similar and largely co-distributed freshwater fishes, the southern (Nannoperca australis) and Yarra (N. obscura) pygmy perches, to assess the degree of concordance in their responses to Plio-Pleistocene climatic changes. We described contemporary genetic diversity, phylogenetic histories, demographic histories, and historical species distributions across both species, and statistically evaluated the degree of concordance in co-occurring populations.

RESULTS

Marked differences in contemporary genetic diversity, historical distribution changes and historical migration were observed across the species, with a distinct lack of genetic diversity and historical range expansion suggested for N. obscura. Although several co-occurring populations within a shared climatic refugium demonstrated concordant demographic histories, idiosyncratic population size changes were found at the range edges of the more spatially restricted species. Discordant responses between species were associated with low standing genetic variation in peripheral populations. This might have hindered adaptive potential, as documented in recent demographic declines and population extinctions for the two species.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlight both the role of spatial scale in the degree of concordance in species responses to climate change, and the importance of standing genetic variation in facilitating range shifts. Even when ecological traits are similar between species, long-term genetic diversity and historical population demography may lead to discordant responses to ongoing and future climate change.

The role of phenotypic plasticity in the establishment of range margins

It has been argued that adaptive phenotypic plasticity may facilitate range expansions over spatially and temporally variable environments. However, plasticity may induce fitness costs. This may hinder the evolution of plasticity. Earlier modelling studies examined the role of plasticity during range expansions of populations with fixed genetic variance. However, genetic variance evolves in natural populations. This may critically alter model outcomes. We ask: how does the capacity for plasticity in populations with evolving genetic variance alter range margins that populations without the capacity for plasticity are expected to attain? We answered this question using computer simulations and analytical approximations. We found a critical plasticity cost above which the capacity for plasticity has no impact on the expected range of the population. Below the critical cost, by contrast, plasticity facilitates range expansion, extending the range in comparison to that expected for populations without plasticity. We further found that populations may evolve plasticity to buffer temporal environmental fluctuations, but only when the plasticity cost is below the critical cost. Thus, the cost of plasticity is a key factor involved in range expansions of populations with the potential to express plastic response in the adaptive trait. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

On the macroecological significance of eco-evolutionary dynamics: the range shift-niche breadth hypothesis

Global correlations of range size and niche breadth, and their relationship to latitude, have long intrigued ecologists and biogeographers. Study of these patterns has given rise to a number of hypothesized ecological and evolutionary processes purported to shape biogeographic outcomes, including the climate variability hypothesis, oscillation hypothesis, ecological opportunity, competitive release and taxon cycles. Here, I introduce the alternative range shift-niche breadth hypothesis, which posits that broader niches and larger range sizes are jointly determined under eco-evolutionary processes unique to expanding ranges, which may or may not be adaptive, but which co-shape observed latitudinal gradients in niche breadth and range size during periods of widespread range expansion. I formulate this hypothesis in comparison against previous hypotheses, exploring how each relies on equilibrium versus non-equilibrium evolutionary processes, faces differing issues of definition and scale, and results in alternative predictions for comparative risk and resilience of global ecosystems. Such differences highlight that accurate understanding of process is critical when applying macroecological insight to biodiversity forecasting. Furthermore, past conceptual emphasis on a central role of local adaptation under equilibrium conditions may have obscured a ubiquitous role of non-equilibrium evolutionary processes for generating many important, regional and global macroecological patterns. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Variation in insulative feather structure in songbirds replacing each other along a tropical elevation gradient

High-elevation organisms are expected to evolve physiological adaptations to cope with harsh environmental conditions. Yet, evidence for such adaptive differences, especially compared to closely related lowland taxa occurring along the same elevational gradient, is rare. Revisiting an anecdotal natural history observation by O. Bangs from 1899 and based on new measurements of museum specimens, we confirmed that the high-elevation hermit wood wren (Henicorhina anachoreta) from the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia, has longer, more insulative feathers on the chest and back, than its lower-elevation counterpart the grey-breasted wood wren (H. leucophrys). However, we did not find evidence for the same specializations in subspecies of H. leucophrys that live at high elevations on other elevational gradients in the Colombian Andes, although similar adaptive solutions have arisen in separate mountain systems like the Himalayas. Adaptations in plumage may be associated with the recurrence of elevational species replacements throughout the tropics.

Competition, Trait Variance Dynamics, and the Evolution of a Species' Range

Geographic ranges of communities of species evolve in response to environmental, ecological, and evolutionary forces. Understanding the effects of these forces on species' range dynamics is a major goal of spatial ecology. Previous mathematical models have jointly captured the dynamic changes in species' population distributions and the selective evolution of fitness-related phenotypic traits in the presence of an environmental gradient. These models inevitably include some unrealistic assumptions, and biologically reasonable ranges of values for their parameters are not easy to specify. As a result, simulations of the seminal models of this type can lead to markedly different conclusions about the behavior of such populations, including the possibility of maladaptation setting stable range boundaries. Here, we harmonize such results by developing and simulating a continuum model of range evolution in a community of species that interact competitively while diffusing over an environmental gradient. Our model extends existing models by incorporating both competition and freely changing intraspecific trait variance. Simulations of this model predict a spatial profile of species' trait variance that is consistent with experimental measurements available in the literature. Moreover, they reaffirm interspecific competition as an effective factor in limiting species' ranges, even when trait variance is not artificially constrained. These theoretical results can inform the design of, as yet rare, empirical studies to clarify the evolutionary causes of range stabilization.

Population transcriptomics reveals the effect of gene flow on the evolution of range limits

One of the most important questions in evolutionary biology is how the spatial distribution of species is limited. Asymmetric gene flow from core populations is suggested to increase the number of poorly adapted immigrants in the populations at the range edge. Genetic load due to migration, i.e., migration load, should prevent adaptation to the local habitat, leading to decreases in distribution range via local extinction or the limiting range expansion. However, few experimental studies have examined the effects of immigration on fitness and natural selection within recipient populations. To investigate the influence of migration load on the evolution of distribution range, we performed field and laboratory observations as well as population transcriptomics for the common river snail, Semisulcospira reiniana. This species meets the conditions that migration from source populations can prevent local adaptation in a sink population because they inhabit the broader range of environments, including middle/upper reaches of a river and estuaries within a single river and they may be more vulnerable to being swept away by water currents due to lowered spontaneous (upward) locomotion activity. We found that river steepness was related to the lower distribution limit of S. reiniana, with a narrower distribution range in the steeper river. Population transcriptomic analysis showed that gene flow was heavily asymmetric from the upstream populations to downstream ones in the steep river, suggesting a greater migration load in the steep river. The number of genes putatively involved in adaptation to the local habitat was lower in the steep river than in the gentle river. Gene expression profiles suggested that individuals achieve better local adaptation in the gentle river. Laboratory experiments suggested that evolutionary differences in salinity tolerance among local populations were only found in the gentle river. Our results consistent with the hypothesis that migration load owing to asymmetric gene flow disturbs local adaptation and restricts the distribution range of river snails.

Selection on growth rate and local adaptation drive genomic adaptation during experimental range expansions in the protist Tetrahymena thermophila

Populations that expand their range can undergo rapid evolutionary adaptation of life‐history traits, dispersal behaviour and adaptation to the local environment. Such adaptation may be aided or hindered by sexual reproduction, depending on the context.

However, few empirical and experimental studies have investigated the genetic basis of adaptive evolution during range expansions. Even less attention has been given to the question how sexual reproduction may modulate such adaptive evolution during range expansions.

We here studied genomic adaptation during experimental range expansions of the protist Tetrahymena thermophila in landscapes with a uniform environment or a pH gradient. Specifically, we investigated two aspects of genomic adaptation during range expansion. First, we investigated adaptive genetic change in terms of the underlying numbers of allele frequency changes from standing genetic variation and de novo variants. We focused on how sexual reproduction may alter this adaptive genetic change. Second, we identified genes subject to selection caused by the expanding range itself, and directional selection due to the presence or absence of the pH gradient. We focused this analysis on alleles with large frequency changes that occurred in parallel in more than one population to identify the most likely candidate targets of selection.

We found that sexual reproduction altered adaptive genetic change both in terms of de novo variants and standing genetic variation. However, sexual reproduction affected allele frequency changes in standing genetic variation only in the absence of long‐distance gene flow. Adaptation to the range expansion affected genes involved in cell divisions and DNA repair, whereas adaptation to the pH gradient additionally affected genes involved in ion balance and oxidoreductase reactions. These genetic changes may result from selection on growth and adaptation to low pH.

In the absence of gene flow, sexual reproduction may have aided genetic adaptation. Gene flow may have swamped expanding populations with maladapted alleles, thus reducing the extent of evolutionary adaptation during range expansion. Sexual reproduction also altered the genetic basis of adaptation in our evolving populations via de novo variants, possibly by purging deleterious mutations or by revealing fitness benefits of rare genetic variants.

Broad Concordance in the Spatial Distribution of Adaptive and Neutral Genetic Variation across an Elevational Gradient in Deer Mice

When species are continuously distributed across environmental gradients, the relative strength of selection and gene flow shape spatial patterns of genetic variation, potentially leading to variable levels of differentiation across loci. Determining whether adaptive genetic variation tends to be structured differently than neutral variation along environmental gradients is an open and important question in evolutionary genetics. We performed exome-wide population genomic analysis on deer mice sampled along an elevational gradient of nearly 4,000 m of vertical relief. Using a combination of selection scans, genotype-environment associations, and geographic cline analyses, we found that a large proportion of the exome has experienced a history of altitude-related selection. Elevational clines for nearly 30% of these putatively adaptive loci were shifted significantly up- or downslope of clines for loci that did not bear similar signatures of selection. Many of these selection targets can be plausibly linked to known phenotypic differences between highland and lowland deer mice, although the vast majority of these candidates have not been reported in other studies of highland taxa. Together, these results suggest new hypotheses about the genetic basis of physiological adaptation to high altitude, and the spatial distribution of adaptive genetic variation along environmental gradients.

How is adaptive potential distributed within species ranges?

Quantitative genetic variation (QGV) represents a major component of adaptive potential and, if reduced toward range-edge populations, could prevent a species' expansion or adaptive response to rapid ecological change. It has been hypothesized that QGV will be lower at the range edge due to small populations-often the result of poor habitat quality-and potentially decreased gene flow. However, whether central populations are higher in QGV is unknown. We used a meta-analytic approach to test for a general QGV-range position relationship, including geographic and climatic distance from range centers. We identified 35 studies meeting our criteria, yielding nearly 1000 estimates of QGV (including broad-sense heritability, narrow-sense heritability, and evolvability) from 34 species. The relationship between QGV and distance from the geographic range or climatic niche center depended on the focal trait and how QGV was estimated. We found some evidence that QGV declines from geographic centers but that it increases toward niche edges; niche and geographic distances were uncorrelated. Nevertheless, few studies have compared QGV in both central and marginal regions or environments within the same species. We call for more research in this area and discuss potential research avenues related to adaptive potential in the context of global change.

Environmental association modelling with loci under divergent selection predicts the distribution range of a lizard

During the historical building of a species range, individual colonizers have to confront different ecological challenges, and the capacity of the species to broaden its range may depend on the total amount of adaptive genetic variation supplied by evolution. We set out to increase our understanding of what defines a range and the role of underlying genetics by trying to predict an entire species' range from the geographical distribution of its genetic diversity under selection. We sampled five populations of the western Mediterranean lizard Psammodromus algirus that inhabit a noticeable environmental gradient of temperature and precipitation. We correlated the genotypes of 95 individuals (18-20 individuals per population) for 21 SNPs putatively under selection with environmental scores on a bioclimatic gradient, using 1 × 1 km²  grid cells as sampling units. By extrapolating the resulting model to all possible combinations of alleles, we inferred all the geographic cells that were theoretically suitable for a given amount of genetic variance under selection. The inferred distribution range overlapped to a large extent with the realized range of the species (77.46% of overlap), including an accurate prediction of internal gaps and range borders. Our results suggest an adaptability threshold determined by the amount of genetic variation available that would be required to warrant adaptation beyond a certain limit of environmental variation. These results support the idea that the expansion of a species' range can be ultimately linked to the arising of new variants under selection (either newly selected variants from standing genetic variation or innovative mutations under selection).

Linking population-level and microevolutionary processes to understand speciation dynamics at the macroevolutionary scale

Although speciation dynamics have been described for several taxonomic groups in distinct geographic regions, most macroevolutionary studies still lack a detailed mechanistic view on how or why speciation rates change. To help partially fill this gap, we suggest that the interaction between the time taken by a species to geographically expand and the time populations take to evolve reproductive isolation should be considered when we are trying to understand macroevolutionary patterns. We introduce a simple conceptual index to guide our discussion on how demographic and microevolutionary processes might produce speciation dynamics at macroevolutionary scales. Our framework is developed under different scenarios: when speciation is mediated by geographical or resource-partitioning opportunities, and when diversity is limited or not. We also discuss how organismal intrinsic properties and different overall geographical settings can influence the tempo and mode of speciation. We argue that specific conditions observed at the microscale might produce a pulse in speciation rates even without a pulse in either climate or physical barriers. We also propose a hypothesis to reconcile the apparent inconsistency between speciation measured at the microscale and macroscale, and emphasize that diversification rates are better seen as an emergent property. We hope to bring the reader's attention to interesting mechanisms to be further studied, to motivate the development of new theoretical models that connect microevolution and macroevolution, and to inspire new empirical and methodological approaches to more adequately investigate speciation dynamics either using neontological or paleontological data.

The evolution of sex along an environmental gradient

Although temporally changing environments generally favor sex and recombination, the effects of spatial environmental heterogeneity have been less explored. In this article, we use a classical model of adaptation along with an environmental gradient to study the selective forces acting on reproductive mode evolution in the central and marginal parts of the distribution range of a species. The model considers a polygenic trait under stabilizing selection (the optimal trait value changing across space) and includes a demographic component imposing range limits. The results show that in the central part of the range (where populations are well adapted), recombination tends to increase the mean fitness of offspring in regimes where drift is sufficiently strong (generating a benefit for sex), while it has the opposite effect when the effect of drift stays negligible. However, these effects remain weak and are easily overwhelmed by slight intrinsic fitness differences between sexuals and asexuals. In agreement with previous results, asexuality may be favored in marginal populations, as it can preserve adaptation to extreme conditions. However, a substantial advantage of asexuality is possible only in conditions maintaining a strong maladaptation of sexuals at range limits (high effective environmental gradient, weak selection at loci coding for the trait).

Adaptation across geographic ranges is consistent with strong selection in marginal climates and legacies of range expansion

Every species experiences limits to its geographic distribution. Some evolutionary models predict that populations at range edges are less well adapted to their local environments due to drift, expansion load, or swamping gene flow from the range interior. Alternatively, populations near range edges might be uniquely adapted to marginal environments. In this study, we use a database of transplant studies that quantify performance at broad geographic scales to test how local adaptation, site quality, and population quality change from spatial and climatic range centers toward edges. We find that populations from poleward edges perform relatively poorly, both on average across all sites (15% lower population quality) and when compared to other populations at home (31% relative fitness disadvantage), consistent with these populations harboring high genetic load. Populations from equatorial edges also perform poorly on average (18% lower population quality) but, in contrast, outperform foreign populations (16% relative fitness advantage), suggesting that populations from equatorial edges have strongly adapted to unique environments. Finally, we find that populations from sites that are thermally extreme relative to the species' niche demonstrate strong local adaptation, regardless of their geographic position. Our findings indicate that both nonadaptive processes and adaptive evolution contribute to variation in adaptation across species' ranges.

Evolution reverses the effect of network structure on metapopulation persistence

Global environmental change is challenging species with novel conditions, such that demographic and evolutionary trajectories of populations are often shaped by the exchange of organisms and alleles across landscapes. Current ecological theory predicts that random networks with dispersal shortcuts connecting distant sites can promote persistence when there is no capacity for evolution. Here, we show with an eco‐evolutionary model that dispersal shortcuts across environmental gradients instead hinder persistence for populations that can evolve because long‐distance migrants bring extreme trait values that are often maladaptive, short‐circuiting the adaptive response of populations to directional change. Our results demonstrate that incorporating evolution and environmental heterogeneity fundamentally alters theoretical predictions regarding persistence in ecological networks.