New perspective on spring vegetation phenology and global climate change based on Tibetan Plateau tree-ring data

Variation of the Start Date of the Vegetation Growing Season (SOS) and Its Climatic Drivers in the Tibetan Plateau

Climate change inevitably affects vegetation growth in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Understanding the dynamics of vegetation phenology and the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change are crucial for evaluating the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Despite many relevant studies conducted in the past, there still remain research gaps concerning the dominant factors that induce changes in the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS). In this study, the spatial and temporal variations of the SOS were investigated by using a long-term series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) spanning from 2001 to 2020, and the response of the SOS to climate change and the predominant climatic factors (air temperature, LST or precipitation) affecting the SOS were explored. The main findings were as follows: the annual mean SOS concentrated on 100 DOY-170 DOY (day of a year), with a delay from east to west. Although the SOS across the entire region exhibited an advancing trend at a rate of 0.261 days/year, there were notable differences in the advancement trends of SOS among different vegetation types. In contrast to the current advancing SOS, the trend of future SOS changes shows a delayed trend. For the impacts of climate change on the SOS, winter Tmax (maximum temperature) played the dominant role in the temporal shifting of spring phenology across the TP, and its effect on SOS was negative, meaning that an increase in winter Tmax led to an earlier SOS. Considering the different conditions required for the growth of various types of vegetation, the leading factor was different for the four vegetation types. This study contributes to the understanding of the mechanism of SOS variation in the TP.

Process-Based Modeling of Phenology and Radial Growth in Pinus tabuliformis in Response to Climate Factors over a Cold and Semi-Arid Region

(1) Background: Climate change significantly impacts the phenology and dynamics of radial tree growth in alpine dryland forests. However, there remains a scarcity of reliable information on the physiological processes of tree growth and cambial phenology in response to long-term climate change in cold and semi-arid regions. (2) Methods: We employed the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model to simulate the phenology and growth patterns of Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis) in the eastern Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The model was informed by observed temperature and precipitation data to elucidate the relationships between climate factors and tree growth. (3) Results: The simulated tree-ring index closely aligned with the observed tree-ring chronology, validating the VS model's effectiveness in capturing the climatic influences on radial growth and cambial phenology of P. tabuliformis. The model outputs revealed that the average growing season spanned from mid-April to mid-October and experienced an extension post-1978 due to ongoing warming trends. However, it is important to note that an increase in the duration of the growing season did not necessarily result in a higher level of radial growth. (4) Conclusions: While the duration of the growing season was primarily determined by temperature, the growth rate was predominantly influenced by water conditions during the growing season, making it the most significant factor contributing to ring formation. Our study provides valuable insights into the potential mechanisms underlying tree growth responses to climate change in cold and semi-arid regions.

Response of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity to warming and increased precipitation in alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau - A review

Plant diversity and soil microbial diversity are closely related, and they maintain the health and stability of terrestrial ecosystems. As a hotspot region of global biodiversity research, both air temperature and precipitation of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau tend to increase in future. Based on an overview of the responses of grassland/alpine ecosystems to seasonal asymmetric warming and increased precipitation worldwide, we elaborated the advancements and uncertainties on the responses of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity to warming and increased precipitation in alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The future research focus of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity in the alpine grasslands of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming and increased precipitation was proposed. Generally, previous studies found that the responses of plant species diversity and soil microbial species diversity to warming and increased precipitation differed between alpine meadows and alpine steppes, but few studies focused on their responses to warming and increased precipitation in alpine desert steppes. Previous studies mainly focused on species diversity, although phylogenetic and functional diversities are also important aspects of biodiversity. Previous studies mainly explained responses of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity to warming and increased precipitation based on niche theory, although neutral theory is also the other important mechanism in regulating biodiversity. Moreover, previous studies almost ignored the coupling relationship between plant diversity and soil microbial diversity. Therefore, the following four aspects need to be strengthened, including the responses of plant diversity and soil microbial diversity to warming and increased precipitation in alpine desert steppes, the responses of plant and soil microbial phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity to warming and increased precipitation, combining the niche theory and neutral theory to examining the mechanism of biodiversity, and the coupling relationships between plant diversity and soil microbial diversity under warming and increased precipitation.

Increasing forest carbon sinks in cold and arid northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Arid forest lands account for 6 % of the world's forest area, but their carbon density and carbon storage capacity have rarely been assessed. Forest inventories provide estimates of forest stock and biomass carbon density, improve our understanding of the carbon cycle, and help us develop sustainable forest management policies in the face of climate change. Here, we carried out three forest inventories at five-year intervals from 2006 to 2016 in 104 permanent sample plots covering the Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) distribution in the north slope of Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results shows that mean biomasses for Qinghai spruce were 133.80, 144.89, and 157.01 Mg ha-1 while biomass carbon densities were 65.52, 70.92, and 76.88 Mg C ha-1, in 2006, 2011, and 2016, respectively. This shows an increase in the Qinghai spruce carbon density of 17.34 % from 2006 to 2016. Both the precipitation and temperature play crucial roles on the increase of aboveground carbon density. The average carbon densities were different among forests with different ages and were higher for older forests. Our results show that the carbon sequestration rate for Qinghai spruce in the Qilian Mountains is significantly higher than the average rates of national forest parks in China, suggesting that this spruce forest has the potential to sequester a significant amount of carbon despite the general harsh growing conditions of cold and arid ecoregions. Our findings provide important insights that are helpful for the assessment of forest carbon for cold and arid lands.

Linkage between growth phenology and climate-growth responses along landscape gradients in boreal forests

Boreal forests represent an important carbon sink and, therefore, significantly contribute to climate change mitigation. Tree-ring width series of boreal species reflect climate variation at the moment of tree-ring formation but also lagged climatic effects from dormancy preceding tree-ring formation and antecedent growing seasons. However, little is known about how the growth sensitivity to climate in specific intra-annual periods varies across the landscape. Here, we assessed growth responses to climate variation during the 45 months preceding the tree-ring formation for nine boreal stands of Picea glauca and Picea mariana distributed along the gradients of elevation and slope aspect. We combined process-based modeling of wood formation and remote sensing data to determine growth phenology at each site. Next, we classified intra-annual seasons with significant climate-growth correlations based on the timing of dormancy and growth periods. Both the phenology and the climate-growth relationships systematically shifted with elevation and, to a lower extent, also with slope orientation at the treeline. The mean duration of the growing season varied between 100 days at treelines above 900 m and 160 days at lowlands below 500 m. The growth at treelines was stimulated by temperature in the summer of the tree-ring formation year and two years before tree-ring formation. The period of significant climate-growth correlations during the current summer did not exceed three months in agreement with the local duration of the growing season. The growth of trees in lower elevations was instead stimulated by high temperature during the dormancy periods but restricted by high temperature in antecedent summer seasons. In conclusion, our study highlights the linkage between the timing of climate-growth sensitivity and growth phenology, primarily determined by proximity to the treeline. Consequently, accounting for landscape gradients in growth phenology is crucial for upscaling the climatic limits of boreal stands' growth as climate change progresses.

INTRAGRO: A machine learning approach to predict future growth of trees under climate change

The escalating impact of climate change on global terrestrial ecosystems demands a robust prediction of the trees' growth patterns and physiological adaptation for sustainable forestry and successful conservation efforts. Understanding these dynamics at an intra-annual resolution can offer deeper insights into tree responses under various future climate scenarios. However, the existing approaches to infer cambial or leaf phenological change are mainly focused on certain climatic zones (such as higher latitudes) or species with foliage discolouration during the fall season. In this study, we demonstrated a novel approach (INTRAGRO) to combine intra-annual circumference records generated by dendrometers coupled to the output of climate models to predict future tree growth at intra-annual resolution using a series of supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms. INTRAGRO performed well using our dataset, that is dendrometer data of P. roxburghii Sarg. from the subtropical mid-elevation belt of Nepal, with robust test statistics. Our growth prediction shows enhanced tree growth at our study site for the middle and end of the 21st century. This result is remarkable since the predicted growing season by INTRAGRO is expected to shorten due to changes in seasonal precipitation. INTRAGRO's key advantage is the opportunity to analyse changes in trees' intra-annual growth dynamics on a global scale, regardless of the investigated tree species, regional climate and geographical conditions. Such information is important to assess tree species' growth performance and physiological adaptation to growing season change under different climate scenarios.

Warming-induced phenological mismatch between trees and shrubs explains high-elevation forest expansion

Despite the importance of species interaction in modulating the range shifts of plants, little is known about the responses of coexisting life forms to a warmer climate. Here, we combine long-term monitoring of cambial phenology in sympatric trees and shrubs at two treelines of the Tibetan Plateau, with a meta-analysis of ring-width series from 344 shrubs and 575 trees paired across 11 alpine treelines in the Northern Hemisphere. Under a spring warming of +1°C, xylem resumption advances by 2-4 days in trees, but delays by 3-8 days in shrubs. The divergent phenological response to warming was due to shrubs being 3.2 times more sensitive than trees to chilling accumulation. Warmer winters increased the thermal requirement for cambial reactivation in shrubs, leading to a delayed response to warmer springs. Our meta-analysis confirmed such a mechanism across continental scales. The warming-induced phenological mismatch may give a competitive advantage to trees over shrubs, which would provide a new explanation for increasing alpine treeline shifts under the context of climate change.

Physiological, metabolomic, and transcriptomic reveal metabolic pathway alterations in Gymnocypris przewalskii due to cold exposure

Teleost fish have evolved various adaptations that allow them to tolerate cold water conditions. However, the underlying mechanism of this adaptation is poorly understood in Tibetan Plateau fish. RNA-seq combined with liquid chromatography‒mass spectrometry (LC‒MS/MS) metabolomics was used to investigate the physiological responses of a Tibetan Plateau-specific teleost, Gymnocypris przewalskii, under cold conditions. The 8-month G. przewalskii juvenile fish were exposed to cold (4 ℃, cold acclimation, CA) and warm (17 ℃, normal temperature, NT) temperature water for 15 days. Then, the transcript profiles of eight tissues, including the brain, gill, heart, intestine, hepatopancreas, kidney, muscle, and skin, were evaluated by transcriptome sequencing. The metabolites of the intestine, hepatopancreas, and muscle were identified by LC‒MS/MS. A total of 5,745 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were obtained in the CA group. The key DEGs were annotated using Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analysis. The DEGs from the eight tissues were significantly enriched in spliceosome pathways, indicating that activated alternative splicing is a critical biological process that occurs in the tissues to help fish cope with cold stress. Additionally, 82, 97, and 66 differentially expressed metabolites were identified in the intestine, hepatopancreas, and muscle, respectively. Glutathione metabolism was the only overlapping significant pathway between the transcriptome and metabolome analyses in these three tissues, indicating that an activated antioxidative process was triggered during cold stress. In combination with the multitissue transcriptome and metabolome, we established a physiology-gene‒metabolite interaction network related to energy metabolism during cold stress and found that gluconeogenesis and long-chain fatty acid metabolism played critical roles in glucose homeostasis and energy supply.

Fatty acid metabolism and antioxidant capacity in Gymnocypris przewalskii (Kessler, 1876) response to thermal stress

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is undergoing a wet-warming transition, which could affect the survival of the native fish. However, the tolerance and physiological response to thermal stress is rarely studied in Gymnocypris przewalskii, a rare native fish in the Tibetan plateau. In this study, first, we detected the thermal tolerance of five groups of six-month G. przewalskii which acclimated at 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 °C for two weeks, respectively, by critical thermal methodology. Then, through heat challenge, we detected the metabolites, key enzyme activities, and gene expressions involved in metabolism and antioxidant in the hepatopancreas when the temperatures increased from 16 °C to 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, and 28 °C for 12 h, respectively. The results showed that although the fish are sensitive to high temperatures, the quick acclimation at mild high temperatures could significantly improve the tolerance to acute high-temperature stress in juvenile G. przewalskii. During the heat challenge study, blood glucose significantly increased at heat stress (P < 0.05). At the same time, total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), and free fatty acid (FFA) significantly decreased when the temperature rose continuously to 20 °C. Metabolic enzyme activities of carnitine palmityl transferase I (CPT-Ⅰ), acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACC), and fatty acid synthase (FAS) significantly decreased at 20 °C (P < 0.05). Superoxide dismutase (SOD) and antioxidant capacity (T-AOC) significantly increased at 20 °C (P < 0.05). The relative transcript levels of genes involved in antioxidant and glycolysis/gluconeogenesis were markedly higher than the control at 20-26 °C (P < 0.05). The genes involved in fatty acid biosynthesis or metabolism showed different expression patterns under heat stress. Heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) and Hsp90 were significantly higher than the control at 18 °C and 26 °C, respectively. These results confirmed the prediction that G. przewalskii is sensitive to high temperatures, so conservation efforts should pay more attention to the warming damage.

Spatial distribution of permafrost degradation and its impact on vegetation phenology from 2000 to 2020

As global temperatures rise, permafrost is degraded. Permafrost degradation alters vegetation phenology and community composition, thereby affecting local and regional ecosystems. The Xing'an Mountains, located on the southern edge of the Eurasian permafrost region, are very sensitive to the impact of permafrost degradation on ecosystems. Climate change has direct effects on permafrost and vegetation growth, and analysis of the indirect effects of permafrost degradation on vegetation phenology based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) can explain the internal impact mechanisms of ecosystem components. Based on the temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model, which was used to simulate the spatial distribution of permafrost areas in the Xing'an Mountains from 2000 to 2020, the areas of the three permafrost types showed a decreasing trend. The mean annual surface temperature (MAST) increased significantly at a rate of 0.008 °C year-1 from 2000 to 2020, and the southern boundary of the permafrost region moved north by 0.1-1 degrees. The average NDVI value of the permafrost region increased significantly in 8.34 % of the region. The significant correlations between NDVI and permafrost degradation, temperature and precipitation in the permafrost degradation region were 92.06 % (80.19 % positive, 11.87 % negative), 50.37 % (42.72 % positive, 7.65 % negative), and 81.59 % (36.25 % positive, 45.34 % negative), and were mainly distributed along the southern boundary of the permafrost region. A significance test of phenology in the Xing'an Mountains showed that the end of the growing season (EOS) and the length of the growing season (GLS) were significantly delayed and prolonged in the southern sparse island permafrost region. Sensitivity analysis showed that permafrost degradation was the main factor that affected the start of the growing season (SOS) and GLS. When the effects of temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration were excluded, the regions with a significant positive correlation between permafrost degradation and SOS (20.96 %) and GLS (28.55 %) were located in both continuous and discontinuous permafrost regions. The regions with a significant negative correlation between permafrost degradation and SOS (21.11 %) and GLS (8.98 %) were mainly distributed on the southern edge of the island permafrost region. In summary, the NDVI changed significantly in the southern boundary of the permafrost region, and this change was mainly attributed to permafrost degradation.

Wildfire-Derived Nitrogen Aerosols Threaten the Fragile Ecosystem in Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau

Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau (HTP) is important for global biodiversity and regional sustainable development. While numerous studies have revealed that the ecosystem in this unique and pristine region is changing, their exact causes are still poorly understood. Here, we present a year-round (23 March 2017 to 19 March 2018) ground- and satellite-based atmospheric observation at the Qomolangma monitoring station (QOMS, 4276 m a.s.l.). Based on a comprehensive chemical and stable isotope (¹⁵N) analysis of nitrogen compounds and satellite observations, we provide unequivocal evidence that wildfire emissions in South Asia can come across the Himalayas and threaten the HTP's ecosystem. Such wildfire episodes, mostly occurring in spring (March-April), not only substantially enhanced the aerosol nitrogen concentration but also altered its composition (i.e., rendering it more bioavailable). We estimated a nitrogen deposition flux at QOMS of ∼10 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1, which is approximately twice the lower value of the critical load range reported for the Alpine ecosystem. Such adverse impact is particularly concerning, given the anticipated increase of wildfire activities in the future under climate change.

Daily timings of sap production in sugar maple in Quebec, Canada

Global warming is affecting plant phenology, with potential consequences on the dynamics of growth reactivation of sugar maple and the timings of maple syrup production. In this study, we assess the temperatures inducing the daily reactivation or cessation of sap production. We selected 19 sugarbushes across Quebec, Canada, using a tapping method associated with the tubing system, we recorded the daily timings of onset and ending of sap production during winter and spring 2018, and we associated the hourly temperatures at each site. Sap production occurred from mid-February to the end of April, starting on average between 10 and 11 AM, and ending from 6 to 8 PM. We observed a seasonal pattern in the onset and ending of sap production during spring, with the onset showing a greater change than the ending. Onset and ending of sap production occurred mostly under temperatures ranging between -2 and 2 °C. The production of sap in maple is closely related to circadian freeze-thaw cycles and occurs under nighttime and daytime temperatures fluctuating below and above 0 °C. The daily lengthening of the duration of sap production mirrors the changes in the timings of freeze and thaw events and can be explained by the physical properties of the water and the physiological processes occurring during growth reactivation. The ongoing warming will result in earlier and warmer springs, which may anticipate the cycles of freeze and thaw and advance sap production in sugar maple.

Continued spring phenological advance under global warming hiatus over the Pan-Third Pole

The global surface temperature has witnessed a warming hiatus in the first decade of this century, but how this slowing down of warming will impact spring phenology over Pan-Third Pole remains unclear. Here, we combined multiple satellite-derived vegetation indices with eddy covariance datasets to evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in spring phenological changes over the Pan-Third Pole. We found that the spring phenology over Pan-Third Pole continues to advance at the rate of 4.8 days decade^-1 during the warming hiatus period, which is contrasted to a non-significant change over the northern hemisphere. Such a significant and continued advance in spring phenology was mainly attributed to an increase in preseason minimum temperature and water availability. Moreover, there is an overall increasing importance of precipitation on changes in spring phenology during the last four decades. We further demonstrated that this increasingly negative correlation was also found across more than two-thirds of the dryland region, tentatively suggesting that spring phenological changes might shift from temperature to precipitation-controlled over the Pan-Third Pole in a warmer world.

Non-linear modelling reveals a predominant moisture limit on juniper growth across the southern Tibetan Plateau

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tree growth in plateau forests is critically limited by harsh climatic conditions. Many mathematical statistical methods have been used to identify the relationships between tree growth and climatic factors, but there is still uncertainty regarding the relative importance of these factors across different regions. We tested major climatic limits at 30 sites to provide insights into the main climatic limits for juniper trees (Juniperus tibetica Kom.) across the southern Tibetan Plateau.

METHODS

We analysed the linear and non-linear relationships between tree growth and climatic factors using Pearson correlation statistics and a process-based forward Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite) model, respectively. These relationships were used to identify the strength of the influence of different climatic factors throughout the species' growing season and to identify the main climatic factors limiting tree growth.

KEY RESULTS

Growth of juniper trees began in April and ended in October in the study area. The radial growth of juniper trees was limited by soil moisture throughout the summer (June-August) of the current year at 24 sampling sites and was limited by temperature at the other six sites on the southern Tibetan Plateau.

CONCLUSIONS

Soil moisture limited juniper growth at the majority of sites. Temperature in the current summer limited the growth of juniper trees at a few sampling sites in the western part of the study area. Local climate conditions may contribute to different limiting factors in the growth response of trees on the southern Tibetan Plateau. These findings may contribute to our understanding of divergent forest dynamics and to sustainable forest management under future climate scenarios.

Impact of Snowpack on the Land Surface Phenology in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

The accumulation and ablation processes of seasonal snow significantly affect the land surface phenology in a mountainous ecosystem. However, the ability of snow to regulate the alpine land surface phenology in the arid regions is not well described in the context of climate change. The impact of snowpack changes on land surface phenology and its driving factors were investigated in the Tianshan Mountains using the land surface phenology metrics derived from satellited products and a snow dataset from downscaled regional climate model simulations covering the period from 1983 to 2015. The results demonstrated that the annual mean start of growing season (SOS) and length of growing season (LOS) experienced a significant (p < 0.05) decrease and increase with a rate of −2.45 days/decade and 2.98 days/decade, respectively. The significantly advanced SOS and increased LOS were mainly seen in the Western Tianshan Mountains and Ili Valley regions with elevations from 2500 to 3500 m a.s.l and below 3000 m a.s.l, respectively. During the early spring, the significant decline in snow cover fraction (SCF) could advance the SOS. In contrast, snowmelt amount and annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) have an almost equally substantial positive correlation with annual maximum vegetation greenness. In particular, the SOS of grassland was the most sensitive to variations of snow cover fraction during early spring than that of other vegetation types, and their strong relationship was mainly located at elevations from 1500 to 2500 m a.s.l. Its greenness was significantly controlled by the annual maximum snow water equivalent in all elevation bands. Both decreased SCF and increased temperature in the early spring caused a significant advance of the SOS, consequently prolonging the LOS. Meanwhile, more SWE and snowmelt amount could significantly promote vegetation greenness by regulating the soil moisture. The results can improve the understanding of the snow ecosystem services in the alpine regions under climate change.

Distribution and Attribution of Earlier Start of the Growing Season over the Northern Hemisphere from 2001–2018

The start of the growing season (SOS) is a vital ecological indicator for climate change and the terrestrial ecosystem. Previous studies have reported that the SOS over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced remarkable changes in the past few decades. However, because of the different spatial and temporal coverages of existing SOS studies, a coherent and robust account for SOS changes in the NH has been lacking. Using satellite-retrieved vegetation-phenology datasets, ground observations, and several auxiliary datasets, this study evaluated the performance of the latest MODIS vegetation-dynamics dataset (MCD12Q2-C6) and explored the distribution and attribution of the SOS to climate change over the NH for the period 2001–2018. The validation results using the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) and Lilac-leafing observations (Lilac) displayed that the MCD12Q2-C6 has a good performance in SOS monitoring over the NH mid-latitudes. Meanwhile, evidence from MCD12Q2-C6 pointed out that the SOS was advanced by 2.08 days on average over the NH during 2001–2018, especially for Europe, China, and Alaska, United States. In addition, detailed-sensitivity analysis showed that the increased surface air temperature (Ts) (−1.21 ± 0.34 days °C−1) and reduced snow-cover fraction (Sc) (0.62 ± 0.29 days%−1) were the key driving factors of the observed SOS changes over the NH during 2001–2018. Compared with Ts and Sc, the role of total precipitation (Pt) was minor in dominating the spring vegetation-phenology changes at the same period. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the responses of SOS to the competing changes of Ts, Pt, and Sc over the NH.

Tracheidogram’s Classification as a New Potential Proxy in High-Resolution Dendroclimatic Reconstructions

Quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) is widely used to resolve a fundamental problem of tree responses to past, ongoing and forecasted climate changes. Potentially, QWA data can be considered as a new proxy source for long-term climate reconstruction with higher temporal resolution than traditional dendroclimatic data. In this paper, we considered a tracheidogram as a set of two interconnected variables describing the dynamics of seasonal variability in the radial cell size and cell wall thickness in conifer trees. We used 1386 cell profiles (tracheidograms) obtained for seven Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trees growing in the cold semiarid conditions of Southern Siberia over the years 1813–2018. We developed a “deviation tracheidogram” approach for adequately describing the traits of tree-ring formation in different climate conditions over a long-term time span. Based on the NbClust approach and K-means method, the deviation tracheidograms were reliably split into four clusters (classes) with clear bio-ecological interpretations (from the most favorable growth conditions to worse ones) over the years 1813–2018. It has been shown that the obtained classes of tracheidograms can be directly associated with different levels of water deficit, for both the current and previous growing seasons. The tracheidogram cluster reconstruction shows that the entire 19th century was characterized by considerable water deficit, which has not been revealed by the climate-sensitive tree-ring chronology of the study site. Therefore, the proposed research offers new perspectives for better understanding how tree radial growth responds to changing seasonal climate and a new independent proxy for developing long-term detailed climatic reconstructions through the detailed analysis of long-term archives of QWA data for different conifer species and various forest ecosystems in future research.

Plant-Soil-Climate Interaction in Observed and Simulated Tree-Radial Growth Dynamics of Downy Birch in Permafrost

Climate change projections forecast most significant impacts on high-latitude forest ecosystems. Particularly, climate warming in boreal regions should increase fire severity and shorten its return interval. These processes can change the dynamics of boreal forests as younger stands become more dominating with a shift from gymnosperm to angiosperm. However, despite angiosperm's phenological and physiological traits have a high potential for ecophysiological and dendroclimatological studies in Siberia, they have been rarely investigated due to their short-term lifespan in comparison with gymnosperm. Modeling tree growth is a common way to understand tree growth responses to environmental changes since it allows using available experiment or field data to interpret observed climate-growth relationships based on the biological principles. In our study, we applied the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model of tree-ring growth via a parameterization approach VS-oscilloscope for the first time to an angiosperm tree species (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) from continuous permafrost terrain to understand its tree-radial growth dynamic. The parameterization of the VS model provided highly significant positive correlations (p < 0.05) between the simulated growth curve and initial tree-ring chronologies for the period 1971-2011 and displayed the average duration of the growing season and intra-seasonal key limiting factors for xylem formation. Modeled result can be valid at the regional scale for remote birch stands, whereas, justification of the local non-climatic input data of the model provided precise site-specific tree growth dynamic and their substantiated responses to driving factors.

An earlier start of the thermal growing season enhances tree growth in cold humid areas but not in dry areas

Climatic warming alters the onset, duration and cessation of the vegetative season. While previous studies have shown a tight link between thermal conditions and leaf phenology, less is known about the impacts of phenological changes on tree growth. Here, we assessed the relationships between the start of the thermal growing season and tree growth across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere using 3,451 tree-ring chronologies and daily climatic data for 1948-2014. An earlier start of the thermal growing season promoted growth in regions with high ratios of precipitation to temperature but limited growth in cold-dry regions. Path analyses indicated that an earlier start of the thermal growing season enhanced growth primarily by alleviating thermal limitations on wood formation in boreal forests and by lengthening the period of growth in temperate and Mediterranean forests. Semi-arid and dry subalpine forests, however, did not benefit from an earlier onset of growth and a longer growing season, presumably due to associated water loss and/or more frequent early spring frosts. These emergent patterns of how climatic impacts on wood phenology affect tree growth at regional to hemispheric scales hint at how future phenological changes may affect the carbon sequestration capacity of extratropical forest ecosystems.

Wood Formation Modeling - A Research Review and Future Perspectives

Wood formation has received considerable attention across various research fields as a key process to model. Historical and contemporary models of wood formation from various disciplines have encapsulated hypotheses such as the influence of external (e.g., climatic) or internal (e.g., hormonal) factors on the successive stages of wood cell differentiation. This review covers 17 wood formation models from three different disciplines, the earliest from 1968 and the latest from 2020. The described processes, as well as their external and internal drivers and their level of complexity, are discussed. This work is the first systematic cataloging, characterization, and process-focused review of wood formation models. Remaining open questions concerning wood formation processes are identified, and relate to: (1) the extent of hormonal influence on the final tree ring structure; (2) the mechanism underlying the transition from earlywood to latewood in extratropical regions; and (3) the extent to which carbon plays a role as "active" driver or "passive" substrate for growth. We conclude by arguing that wood formation models remain to be fully exploited, with the potential to contribute to studies concerning individual tree carbon sequestration-storage dynamics and regional to global carbon sequestration dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models.

Remote Sensing in Studies of the Growing Season: A Bibliometric Analysis

Analyses of climate change based on point observations indicate an extension of the plant growing season, which may have an impact on plant production and functioning of natural ecosystems. Analyses involving remote sensing methods, which have added more detail to results obtained in the traditional way, have been carried out only since the 1980s. The paper presents the results of a bibliometric analysis of papers related to the growing season published from 2000–2021 included in the Web of Science database. Through filtering, 285 publications were selected and subjected to statistical processing and analysis of their content. This resulted in the identification of author teams that mostly focused their research on vegetation growth and in the selection of the most common keywords describing the beginning, end, and duration of the growing season. It was found that most studies on the growing season were reported from Asia, Europe, and North America (i.e., 32%, 28%, and 28%, respectively). The analyzed articles show the advantage of satellite data over low-altitude and ground-based data in providing information on plant vegetation. Over three quarters of the analyzed publications focused on natural plant communities. In the case of crops, wheat and rice were the most frequently studied plants (i.e., they were analyzed in over 30% and over 20% of publications, respectively).

Spatial Difference between Temperature and Snowfall Driven Spring Phenology of Alpine Grassland Land Surface Based on Process-Based Modeling on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

As a sensitive indicator for climate change, the spring phenology of alpine grassland on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has received extensive concern over past decade. It has been demonstrated that temperature and precipitation/snowfall play an important role in driving the green-up in alpine grassland. However, the spatial differences in the temperature and snowfall driven mechanism of alpine grassland green-up onset are still not clear. This manuscript establishes a set of process-based models to investigate the climate variables driving spring phenology and their spatial differences. Specifically, using 500 m three-day composite MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2015, we first estimated the land surface green-up onset (LSGO) of alpine grassland in the QTP. Further, combining with daily air temperature and precipitation datasets from 2000 to 2015, we built up process-based models for LSGO in 86 meteorological stations in the QTP. The optimum models of the stations separating climate drivers spatially suggest that LSGO in grassland is: (1) controlled by temperature in the north, west and south of the QTP, where the precipitation during late winter and spring is less than 20 mm; (2) driven by the combination of temperature and precipitation in the middle, east and southwest regions with higher precipitation and (3) more likely controlled by both temperature and precipitation in snowfall dominant regions, since the snow-melting process has negative effects on the air temperature. The result dictates that snowfall and rainfall should be concerned separately in the improvement of the spring phenology model of the alpine grassland ecosystem.

Cutting tree rings into time slices: how intra-annual dynamics of wood formation help decipher the space-for-time conversion

Tree-ring anatomy, microdensity and isotope records provide valuable intra-annual information. However, extracting signals at that scale is challenged by the complexity of xylogenesis, where two major processes - cell enlargement and wall thickening - occur at different times and rates. We characterized the space-for-time association in the tree rings of three conifer species by examining the duration, overlapping, inter-tree synchronicity and interannual stability during cell enlargement and wall thickening across regular tree-ring sectors (portions of equal tangential width). The number of cells and cell differentiation rates determined the duration of sector formation, which augmented more rapidly throughout the ring for wall thickening than for enlargement. Increasing the number of sectors above c. 15 had a limited effect on improving time resolution because consecutive sector formation overlapped greatly in time, especially in narrow rings and during wall thickening. Increasing the number of sectors also resulted in lower synchronicity and stability of intermediate-sector enlargement, whereas all sectors showed high synchronicity and stability during wall thickening. Increasing the number of sectors had a stronger effect on enhancing time-series resolution for enlargement- than for wall-thickening-related traits, which would nevertheless produce more reliable intra-annual chronologies as a result of the more similar calendars across trees and years in wall thickening.

Vegetation green-up date is more sensitive to permafrost degradation than climate change in spring across the northern permafrost region

Global climate change substantially influences vegetation spring phenology, that is, green-up date (GUD), in the northern permafrost region. Changes in GUD regulate ecosystem carbon uptake, further feeding back to local and regional climate systems. Extant studies mainly focused on the direct effects of climate factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and insolation; however, the responses of GUD to permafrost degradation caused by warming (i.e., indirect effects) remain elusive yet. In this study, we examined the impacts of permafrost degradation on GUD by analyzing the long-term trend of satellite-based GUD in relation to permafrost degradation measured by the start of thaw (SOT) and active layer thickness (ALT). We found significant trends of advancing GUD, SOT, and thickening ALT (p < 0.05), with a spatially averaged slope of -2.1 days decade^-1 , -4.1 days decade^-1 , and +1.1 cm decade^-1 , respectively. Using partial correlation analyses, we found more than half of the regions with significantly negative correlations between spring temperature and GUD became nonsignificant after considering permafrost degradation. GUD exhibits dominant-positive (37.6% vs. 0.6%) and dominant-negative (1.8% vs. 35.1%) responses to SOT and ALT, respectively. Earlier SOT and thicker ALT would enhance soil water availability, thus alleviating water stress for vegetation green-up. Based on sensitivity analyses, permafrost degradation was the dominant factor controlling GUD variations in 41.7% of the regions, whereas only 19.6% of the regions were dominated by other climatic factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and insolation). Our results indicate that GUDs were more sensitive to permafrost degradation than direct climate change in spring among different vegetation types, especially in high latitudes. This study reveals the significant impacts of permafrost degradation on vegetation GUD and highlights the importance of permafrost status in better understanding spring phenological responses to future climate change.

Responses of Larix principis-rupprechtii Radial Growth to Climatic Factors at Different Elevations on Guancen Mountain, North-Central China

Larix principis-rupprechtii is an important afforestation tree species in the North China alpine coniferous forest belt. Studying the correlations and response relationships between Larix principis-rupprechtii radial growth and climatic factors at different elevations is helpful for understanding the growth trends of L. principis-rupprechtiind its long-term sensitivity and adaptability to climate change. Pearson correlation, redundancy (RDA), and sliding analysis were performed to study the correlations and dynamic relationships between radial growth and climatic factors. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The three-elevation standard chronologies all exhibited high characteristic values, contained rich climate information and were suitable for tree-ring climatological analyses. (2) Both temperature and precipitation restricted low-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth, while monthly maximum temperatures mainly affected mid-high-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth. (3) Mid-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth responded to climate factors with a “lag effect” and was not restricted by spring and early summer drought. (4) Long-term sliding analysis showed that spring temperatures and winter precipitation were the main climatic factors restricting L. principis-rupprechtii growth under warming and drying climate trends at different elevations. The tree-ring width index and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were positively correlated, indicating that L. principis-rupprechtii growth is somewhat restricted by drought. These results provide a reference and guidance for L. principis-rupprechtii management and sustainable development in different regions under warming and drying background climate trends.

Distinct Climate Effects on Dahurian Larch Growth at an Asian Temperate-Boreal Forest Ecotone and Nearby Boreal Sites

Climate change is exerting profound impacts on the structure and function of global boreal forest. Compared with their northern counterparts, trees growing at the southern boreal forest and the temperate-boreal forest ecotone likely show distinct responses to climate change. Based on annual basal areal increment (BAI) of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantations with similar ages, tree densities and soil nutrient conditions, we investigated the tree growth responses to inter-annual climate variations at an Asian temperate-boreal forest ecotone and nearby boreal sites in northeast China. Annual BAI changed nonlinearly with cambial age in the form of a lognormal curve. The maximum annual BAI showed no significant difference between the two bioregions, while annual BAI peaked at an elder age at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone. After eliminating the age associated trend, conditional regression analyses indicate that residual BAI at the boreal sites increased significantly with higher growing-season mean nighttime minimum temperature and non-growing-season precipitation, but decreased significantly with higher growing-season mean daytime maximum temperature during the past three decades (1985–2015). In contrast, residual BAI at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone only showed a positive and weak response to inter-annual variations of growing-season precipitation. These findings suggest distinct effects of inter-annual climate variation on the growth of boreal trees at the temperate-boreal forest ecotone in comparison to the southern boreal regions, and highlight future efforts to elucidate the key factors that regulate the growth ofthe southernmost boreal trees.

Grassland Phenology’s Sensitivity to Extreme Climate Indices in the Sichuan Province, Western China

Depending on the vegetation type, extreme climate and drought events have a greater impact on the end of the season (EOS) and start of the season (SOS). This study investigated the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of grassland phenology and its responses to seasonal and extreme climate changes in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2020. Based on the data from 38 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province, this study calculated the 15 extreme climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The results showed that SOS was concentrated in mid-March to mid-May (80–140 d), and 61.83% of the area showed a significant advancing trend, with a rate of 0–1.5 d/a. The EOS was concentrated between 270–330 d, from late September to late November, and 71.32% showed a delayed trend. SOS was strongly influenced by the diurnal temperature range (DTR), yearly maximum consecutive five-day precipitation (RX5), and the temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI), while EOS was most influenced by the yearly minimum daily temperature (TNN), yearly mean temperature (TEMP_MEAN), and TVDI. The RX5 day index showed an overall positive sensitivity coefficient for SOS. TNN index showed a positive sensitivity coefficient for EOS. TVDI showed positive and negative sensitivities for SOS and EOS, respectively. This suggests that extreme climate change, if it causes an increase in vegetation SOS, may also cause an increase in vegetation EOS. This research can provide a scientific basis for developing regional vegetation restoration and disaster prediction strategies in Sichuan Province.

Chemical source profiles of particulate matter and gases emitted from solid fuels for residential cooking and heating scenarios in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Incomplete combustion of solid fuels (animal dung and bituminous coal) is a common phenomenon during residential cooking and heating in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), resulting in large amounts of pollutants emitted into the atmosphere. This study investigated the pollutant emissions from six burning scenarios (heating and cooking with each of the three different fuels: yak dung, sheep dung, and bitumite) in the QTP's pastoral dwellings. Target pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), gas-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), fine particles (PM_2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm), carbonaceous aerosols, water-soluble ions, and particle-phase PAHs were investigated. Emission factors (EFs) (mean ± standard deviation) of PM_2.5 from the six scenarios were in the range of 1.21 ± 0.47-7.03 ± 1.95 g kg^-1, of which over 60% mass fractions were carbonaceous aerosols. The ratio of organic carbon to elemental carbon ranged from 9.6 ± 2.7-33.4 ± 11.5 and 81.7 ± 30.4-91.9 ± 29.0 for dung and bitumite burning, respectively. These values were much larger than those reported in the literature, likely because of the region's high altitudes-where the oxygen level is approximately 65% of that at the sea level-thus providing a deficient air supply to stoves. However, the toxicity and carcinogenicity of PAHs emitted from solid fuel combustion in the QTP are significant, despite a slightly lower benzo(a)pyrene-equivalent carcinogenic potency (Bap_eq) in this study than in the literature. The gas-to-particle partitioning coefficient of PAHs and VOC emission profiles in the QTP differed significantly from those reported for other regions in the literature. More attention should be paid to the emissions of PAH derivatives (oxygenated PAHs and nitro-PAHs), considering their enhanced light-absorbing ability and high BaP_eq from solid fuel combustion in the QTP.

The global significance of biodiversity science in China: an overview

Biodiversity science in China has seen rapid growth over recent decades, ranging from baseline biodiversity studies to understanding the processes behind evolution across dynamic regions such as the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We review research, including species catalogues; biodiversity monitoring; the origins, distributions, maintenance and threats to biodiversity; biodiversity-related ecosystem function and services; and species and ecosystems' responses to global change. Next, we identify priority topics and offer suggestions and priorities for future biodiversity research in China. These priorities include (i) the ecology and biogeography of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains, and that of subtropical and tropical forests across China; (ii) marine and inland aquatic biodiversity; and (iii) effective conservation and management to identify and maintain synergies between biodiversity and socio-economic development to fulfil China's vision for becoming an ecological civilization. In addition, we propose three future strategies: (i) translate advanced biodiversity science into practice for biodiversity conservation; (ii) strengthen capacity building and application of advanced technologies, including high-throughput sequencing, genomics and remote sensing; and (iii) strengthen and expand international collaborations. Based on the recent rapid progress of biodiversity research, China is well positioned to become a global leader in biodiversity research in the near future.

Spring Phenological Sensitivity to Climate Change in the Northern Hemisphere: Comprehensive Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis

Plant phenology depends largely on temperature, but temperature alone cannot explain the Northern Hemisphere shifts in the start of the growing season (SOS). The spatio–temporal distribution of SOS sensitivity to climate variability has also changed in recent years. We applied the partial least squares regression (PLSR) method to construct a standardized SOS sensitivity evaluation index and analyzed the combined effects of air temperature (Tem), water balance (Wbi), radiation (Srad), and previous year’s phenology on SOS. The spatial and temporal distributions of SOS sensitivity to Northern Hemisphere climate change from 1982 to 2014 were analyzed using time windows of 33 and 15 years; the dominant biological and environmental drivers were also assessed. The results showed that the combined sensitivity of SOS to climate change (SCom) is most influenced by preseason temperature sensitivity. However, because of the asymmetric response of SOS to daytime/night temperature (Tmax/Tmin) and non-negligible moderating of Wbi and Srad on SOS, SCom was more effective in expressing the effect of climate change on SOS than any single climatic factor. Vegetation cover (or type) was the dominant factor influencing the spatial pattern of SOS sensitivity, followed by spring temperature (Tmin > Tmax), and the weakest was water balance. Forests had the highest SCom absolute values. A significant decrease in the sensitivity of some vegetation (22.2%) led to a decreasing trend in sensitivity in the Northern Hemisphere. Although temperature remains the main climatic factor driving temporal changes in SCom, the temperature effects were asymmetric between spring and winter (Tems/Temw). More moisture might mitigate the asymmetric response of SCom to spring/winter warming. Vegetation adaptation has a greater influence on the temporal variability of SOS sensitivity relative to each climatic factor (Tems, Temw, Wbi, Srad). More moisture might mitigate the asymmetric response of SCom to spring/winter warming. This study provides a basis for vegetation phenology sensitivity assessment and prediction.

Forward Modeling Reveals Multidecadal Trends in Cambial Kinetics and Phenology at Treeline

Significant alterations of cambial activity might be expected due to climate warming, leading to growing season extension and higher growth rates especially in cold-limited forests. However, assessment of climate-change-driven trends in intra-annual wood formation suffers from the lack of direct observations with a timespan exceeding a few years. We used the Vaganov-Shashkin process-based model to: (i) simulate daily resolved numbers of cambial and differentiating cells; and (ii) develop chronologies of the onset and termination of specific phases of cambial phenology during 1961-2017. We also determined the dominant climatic factor limiting cambial activity for each day. To asses intra-annual model validity, we used 8 years of direct xylogenesis monitoring from the treeline region of the Krkonoše Mts. (Czechia). The model exhibits high validity in case of spring phenological phases and a seasonal dynamics of tracheid production, but its precision declines for estimates of autumn phenological phases and growing season duration. The simulations reveal an increasing trend in the number of tracheids produced by cambium each year by 0.42 cells/year. Spring phenological phases (onset of cambial cell growth and tracheid enlargement) show significant shifts toward earlier occurrence in the year (for 0.28-0.34 days/year). In addition, there is a significant increase in simulated growth rates during entire growing season associated with the intra-annual redistribution of the dominant climatic controls over cambial activity. Results suggest that higher growth rates at treeline are driven by (i) temperature-stimulated intensification of spring cambial kinetics, and (ii) decoupling of summer growth rates from the limiting effect of low summer temperature due to higher frequency of climatically optimal days. Our results highlight that the cambial kinetics stimulation by increasing spring and summer temperatures and shifting spring phenology determine the recent growth trends of treeline ecosystems. Redistribution of individual climatic factors controlling cambial activity during the growing season questions the temporal stability of climatic signal of cold forest chronologies under ongoing climate change.

Comparison of Remote Sensing Time-Series Smoothing Methods for Grassland Spring Phenology Extraction on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Accurate evaluation of start of season (SOS) changes is essential to assess the ecosystem’s response to climate change. Smoothing method is an understudied factor that can lead to great uncertainties in SOS extraction, and the applicable situation for different smoothing methods and the impact of smoothing parameters on SOS extraction accuracy are of critical importance to be clarified. In this paper, we use MOD13Q1 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and SOS observations from eight agrometeorological stations on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) during 2001–2011 to compare the SOS extraction accuracies of six popular smoothing methods (Changing Weight (CW), Savitzky-Golay (SG), Asymmetric Gaussian (AG), Double-logistic (DL), Whittaker Smoother (WS) and Harmonic Analysis of NDVI Time-Series (HANTS)) for two types of different SOS extraction methods (dynamic threshold (DT) with 9 different thresholds and double logistic (Zhang)). Furthermore, a parameter sensitivity analysis for each smoothing method is performed to quantify the impacts of smoothing parameters on SOS extraction. Finally, the suggested smoothing methods and reference ranges for the parameters of different smoothing methods were given for grassland phenology extraction on the QTP. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the smoothing methods and SOS extraction methods jointly determine the SOS extraction accuracy, and a bad denoising performance of smoothing method does not necessarily lead to a low SOS extraction accuracy; (2) the default parameters for most smoothing methods can result in acceptable SOS extraction accuracies, but for some smoothing methods (e.g., WS) a parameter optimization is necessary, and the optimal parameters of the smoothing method can increase the R2 and reduce the RMSE of SOS extraction by up to 25% and 331%; (3) The main influencing factor of the SOS extraction using the DT method is the stability of the minimum value in the NDVI curve, and for the Zhang method the curve shape before the peak of the NDVI curve impacts the most; (4) HANTS is the most stable method no matter with (fitness = 35.05) or without parameter optimization (fitness = 33.52), which is recommended for QTP grassland SOS extraction. The findings of this study imply that remote sensing-based vegetation phenology extraction can be highly uncertain, and a careful selection and parameterization of the time-series smoothing method should be taken to achieve an accurate result.

Winter-spring temperature pattern is closely related to the onset of cambial reactivation in stems of the evergreen conifer Chamaecyparis pisifera

Temperature is an important factor for the cambial growth in temperate trees. We investigated the way daily temperatures patterns (maximum, average and minimum) from late winter to early spring affected the timing of cambial reactivation and xylem differentiation in stems of the conifer Chamaecyparis pisifera. When the daily temperatures started to increase earlier from late winter to early spring, cambial reactivation occurred earlier. Cambium became active when it achieves the desired accumulated temperature above the threshold (cambial reactivation index; CRI) of 13 °C in 11 days in 2013 whereas 18 days in 2014. This difference in duration required for achieving accumulated temperature can be explained with the variations in the daily temperature patterns in 2013 and 2014. Our formula for calculation of CRI predicted the cambial reactivation in 2015. A hypothetical increase of 1-4 °C to the actual daily maximum temperatures of 2013 and 2014 shifted the timing of cambial reactivation and had different effects on cambial reactivation in the two consecutive years because of variations in the actual daily temperatures patterns. Thus, the specific annual pattern of accumulation of temperature from late winter to early spring is a critical factor in determining the timing of cambial reactivation in trees.

Greater sensitivity to hotter droughts underlies juniper dieback and mortality in Mediterranean shrublands

Drought-induced dieback episodes have been globally reported. However, few studies have jointly examined the role played by drought on growth of co-occurring shrub and tree species showing different dieback and mortality. Here, we focused on dieback events affecting Mediterranean shrublands dominated by the Phoenician juniper (Juniperus phoenicea) since the middle 2000s in three sites across a wide geographical and climatic gradient in Spain. We compared their growth responses to climate and drought with coexisting tree species (Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster and Quercus faginea), which did not show dieback in response to drought. We characterized the major climatic constraints of radial growth for trees, surviving and dead junipers by quantifying climate-growth relationships. Then, we simulated growth responses to temperature and soil moisture using the process-based VS-Lite growth model. Growth of shrubs and trees was strongly reduced during extreme droughts but the highest negative growth responsiveness to climate and drought was observed in trees followed by dead junipers from the most xeric and cold sites. Growth of dead junipers responded more negatively to droughts prior to the dieback than co-occurring, living junipers. Growth was particularly depressed in the dead junipers from the warmest site after the warm and dry 1990s. The growth model showed how a steep precipitation reduction in the 1980s triggered soil moisture limitation at the driest sites, affecting growth, particularly in the case of dead junipers and mainly in warm and dry sites. The asynchrony in the simulated seasonal timing of drought events caused contrasting effects on growth of co-occurring shrubs and tree species, compromising their future coexistence. Junipers were particularly vulnerable to hotter droughts during the early growing season. The presented projections indicate that de-shrubification events in response to hotter droughts will be common but conditioned by site conditions. Our modelling approach provides tools to evaluate vulnerability thresholds of growth under similar drought-induced dieback and mortality processes.

Estimating Frost during Growing Season and Its Impact on the Velocity of Vegetation Greenup and Withering in Northeast China

Vegetation phenology and photosynthetic primary production have changed simultaneously over the past three decades, thus impacting the velocity of vegetation greenup (Vgreenup) and withering (Vwithering). Although climate warming reduces the frequency of frost events, vegetation is exposed more frequently to frost due to the extension of the growing season. Currently, little is known about the effect of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering. This study analyzed spatiotemporal variations in Vgreenup and Vwithering in Northeast China between 1982 to 2015 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS 3g NDVI) data. Frost days and frost intensity were selected as indicators to investigate the influence of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering, respectively. Increased frost days during the growing season slowed Vgreenup and Vwithering. The number of frost days had a greater impact on Vwithering compared to Vgreenup. In addition, Vgreenup and Vwithering of forests were more vulnerable to frost days, while frost days had a lesser effect on grasslands. In contrast to frost days, frost intensity, which generally decreased during the growing season, accelerated Vgreenup and Vwithering for all land cover types. Changes in frost intensity had less of an impact on forests, whereas the leaf structure of grasslands is relatively simple and thus more vulnerable to frost intensity. The effects of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering in Northeast China were highlighted in this study, and the results provide a useful reference for understanding local vegetation responses to global climate change.

A 241-Year Cryptomeria fortune Tree-Ring Chronology in Humid Subtropical China and Its Linkages with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Humid subtropical China is an “oasis” relative to other dry subtropics of the world due to the prevailing of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Although many long climate sensitive tree-rings have been published to understand the historical climate change over various regions in China, long tree-ring chronologies in humid subtropical China are rare due to the difficulty to find old growth trees. This study established a tree-ring chronology spanning from 1776 to 2016 from Cryptomeria fortunei Hooibrenk ex Otto et Dietr in Liancheng area of humid subtropical China, which is also currently the longest chronology in Fujian province. Similar to the climate-growth relationships in neighboring regions, our tree-ring chronology is limited by cold temperature in winter and spring and drought in summer. In addition, a drought stress before the growing season also played a role in limiting the growth of our tree rings. Our climate sensitive tree rings showed different correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in different periods, possibly via modulation of the EASM.

Environmental Drivers for Cambial Reactivation of Qilian Junipers (Juniperus przewalskii) in a Semi-Arid Region of Northwestern China

Although cambial reactivation is considered to be strongly dependent on temperature, the importance of water availability at the onset of xylogenesis in semi-arid regions still lacks sufficient evidences. In order to explore how environmental factors influence the initiation of cambial activity and wood formation, we monitored weekly cambial phenology in Qilian juniper (Juniperus przewalskii) from a semi-arid high-elevation region of northwestern China. We collected microcores from 12 trees at two elevations during the growing seasons in 2013 and 2014, testing the hypothesis that rainfall limits cambial reactivation in spring. Cambium was reactivated from late April to mid-May, and completed cell division from late July to early August, lasting 70–100 days. Both sites suffered from severe drought from January to April 2013, receiving < 1 mm of rain in April. In contrast, rainfall from January to April 2014 was 5–6 times higher than that in 2013. However, cambial reactivation in 2014 was delayed by 10 days. In spring, soil moisture gradually increased with warming temperatures, reaching 0.15 m3/m3 before the onset of xylogenesis, which may have ensured water availability for tree growth during the rainless period. We were unable to confirm the hypothesis that rainfall is a limiting factor of cambial reactivation. Our results highlight the importance of soil moisture in semi-arid regions, which better describe the environmental conditions that are favorable for cambial reactivation in water-limited ecosystems.

Precipitation and Minimum Temperature are Primary Climatic Controls of Alpine Grassland Autumn Phenology on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Autumn phenology is a crucial indicator for identifying the alpine grassland growing season’s end date on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), which intensely controls biogeochemical cycles in this ecosystem. Although autumn phenology is thought to be mainly influenced by the preseason temperature, precipitation, and insolation in alpine grasslands, the relative contributions of these climatic factors on the QTP remain uncertain. To quantify the impacts of climatic factors on autumn phenology, we built stepwise linear regression models for 91 meteorological stations on the QTP using in situ herb brown-off dates, remotely sensed autumn phenological metrics, and a multi-factor climate dataset during an optimum length period. The results show that autumn precipitation has the most extensive influence on interannual variation in alpine grassland autumn phenology. On average, a 10 mm increase in autumn precipitation during the optimum length period may lead to a delay of 0.2 to 4 days in the middle senescence date (P < 0.05) across the alpine grasslands. The daily minimum air temperature is the second most important controlling factor, namely, a 1 °C increase in the mean autumn minimum temperature during the optimum length period may induce a delay of 1.6 to 9.3 days in the middle senescence date (P < 0.05) across the alpine grasslands. Sunshine duration is the third extensive controlling factor. However, its influence is spatially limited. Moreover, the relative humidity and wind speed also have strong influences at a few stations. Further analysis indicates that the autumn phenology at stations with less autumn precipitation is more sensitive to precipitation variation than at stations with more autumn precipitation. This implies that autumn drought in arid regions would intensely accelerate the leaf senescence of alpine grasslands. This study suggests that precipitation should be considered for improving process-based autumn phenology models in QTP alpine grasslands.

Coarse-Resolution Satellite Images Overestimate Urbanization Effects on Vegetation Spring Phenology

Numerous investigations of urbanization effects on vegetation spring phenology using satellite images have reached a consensus that vegetation spring phenology in urban areas occurs earlier than in surrounding rural areas. Nevertheless, the magnitude of this rural–urban difference is quite different among these studies, especially for studies over the same areas, which implies large uncertainties. One possible reason is that the satellite images used in these studies have different spatial resolutions from 30 m to 1 km. In this study, we investigated the impact of spatial resolution on the rural–urban difference of vegetation spring phenology using satellite images at different spatial resolutions. To be exact, we first generated a dense 10 m NDVI time series through harmonizing Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images by data fusion method, and then resampled the 10 m time series to coarser resolutions from 30 m to 8 km to simulate images at different resolutions. Afterwards, to quantify urbanization effects, vegetation spring phenology at each resolution was extracted by a widely used tool, TIMESAT. Last, we calculated the difference between rural and urban areas using an urban extent map derived from NPP VIIRS nighttime light data. Our results reveal: (1) vegetation spring phenology in urban areas happen earlier than rural areas no matter which spatial resolution from 10 m to 8 km is used, (2) the rural–urban difference in vegetation spring phenology is amplified with spatial resolution, i.e., coarse satellite images overestimate the urbanization effects on vegetation spring phenology, and (3) the underlying reason of this overestimation is that the majority of urban pixels in coarser images have higher diversity in terms of spring phenology dates, which leads to spring phenology detected from coarser NDVI time series earlier than the actual dates. This study indicates that spatial resolution is an important factor that affects the accuracy of the assessment of urbanization effects on vegetation spring phenology. For future studies, we suggest that satellite images with a fine spatial resolution are more appropriate to explore urbanization effects on vegetation spring phenology if vegetation species in urban areas is very diverse.

Comparing the Cell Dynamics of Tree-Ring Formation Observed in Microcores and as Predicted by the Vaganov-Shashkin Model

New insights into the intra-annual dynamics of tree-ring formation can improve our understanding of tree-growth response to environmental conditions at high-resolution time scales. Obtaining this information requires, however, a weekly monitoring of wood formation, sampling that is extremely time-intensive and scarcely feasible over vast areas. Estimating the timing of cambial and xylem differentiation by modeling thus represents an interesting alternative for obtaining this important information by other means. Temporal dynamics of cambial divisions can be extracted from the daily tree-ring growth rate computed by the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) simulation model, assuming that cell production is tightly linked to tree-ring growth. Nonetheless, these predictions have yet to be compared with direct observations of wood development, i.e., via microcoring, over a long time span. We tested the performance of the VS model by comparing the observed and predicted timing of wood formation in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.)]. We obtained microcores over 15 years at 5 sites along a latitudinal gradient in Quebec (Canada). The measured variables included cell size and the timing of cell production and differentiation. We calibrated the VS model using daily temperature and precipitation recorded by weather stations located on each site. The predicted and observed timing of cambial and enlarging cells were highly correlated (R ² = 0.8); nonetheless, we detected a systematic overestimation in the predicted timing of cambial cells, with predictions delayed by 1-20 days compared with observations. The growth rate of cell diameter was correlated with the predicted growth rate assigned to each cambial cell, confirming that cell diameter developmental dynamics have the potential to be inferred by the tree-ring growth curve of the VS model. Model performances decrease substantially in estimating the end of wood formation. The systematic errors suggest that the actual relationships implemented in the model are unable to explain the phenological events in autumn. The mismatch between the observed and predicted timing of wood formation in black spruce within our study area can be reduced by better adapting the VS model to wet sites, a context for which this model has been rarely used.

Text Mining in Remotely Sensed Phenology Studies: A Review on Research Development, Main Topics, and Emerging Issues

As an interdisciplinary field of research, phenology is developing rapidly, and the contents of phenological research have become increasingly abundant. In addition, the potentiality of remote sensing technologies has largely contributed to the growth and complexity of this discipline, in terms of the scale of analysis, techniques of data processing, and a variety of topics. As a consequence, it is increasingly difficult for scientists to get a clear picture of remotely sensed phenology (rs+pheno) research. Bibliometric analysis is increasingly used for the study of a discipline and its conceptual dynamics. This review analyzed the last 40 years (1979–2018) of publications in the rs+pheno field retrieved from the Scopus database; such publications were investigated by means of a text mining approach, both in terms of bibliographic and text data. Results demonstrated that rs+pheno research is exponentially growing through time; however, it is primarily considered a subset of remote sensing science rather than a branch of phenology. In this framework, in the last decade, agriculture is becoming more and more a standalone science in rs+pheno research, independently from other related topics, e.g., classification. On the contrary, forestry struggles to gain its thematic role in rs+pheno studies and remains strictly connected with climate change issues. Classification and mapping represent the major rs+pheno topic, together with the extraction and the analysis of phenological metrics, like the start of the growing season. To the contrary, forest ecophysiology, in terms of ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange, results as the most relevant new topic, together with the use of the red edge band and SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data in rs+pheno agricultural studies. Some niche emerging rs+pheno topics may be recognized in the ocean and arctic investigations linked to phytoplankton blooming and ice cover dynamics. The findings of this study might be applicable for planning and managing remotely sensed phenology research; scientists involved in such discipline might use this study as a reference to consider their research domain in a broader dynamical network.

The Vulnerability of Qilian Juniper to Extreme Drought Events

Identifying which trees are more vulnerable to extreme climatic events is a challenging problem in our understanding of forest and even ecosystem dynamics under climate change scenarios. As one of the most widely distributed tree species across the arid and semi-arid northeastern Tibetan Plateau, Qilian juniper (Juniperus przewalskii Kom.), is the main component of the local forest ecosystem, providing critical insurance for the ecological security of the surrounding areas. However, this species's ability to cope with climate extremes (especially drought) has not been adequately assessed. Here, we apply a dendroecological approach that considers indices of resistance and resilience to quantify the vulnerability of Qilian junipers to the extreme drought events of 1957, 1966, 1979, and 1995. A total of 532 Qilian juniper trees from different age stages (100-1,100 years) and altitudes [3,500-4,000 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] were studied to assess their response characteristics during these four drought extremes. We conclude that drought extremes have a significant negative impact on the growth of Qilian juniper. The oldest Qilian junipers at the lower altitudes constituted the most vulnerable populations across the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and were characterized by the lowest resistance values, the narrowest annual rings, and the highest proportion of missing rings during the four drought years. Tree resilience after droughts was strongly related to the intensity of the drought event and did not change with tree age or elevation. A threshold of tree tolerance to drought may exist, with the more vulnerable tree individuals (e.g., the oldest Qilian junipers from lower altitudes) being exposed to the highest mortality risk when drought intensity exceeds the threshold value. Such a threshold needs further consideration, through the study of trees that have died (or are about to die) due to extreme droughts.

Frost controls spring phenology of juvenile Smith fir along elevational gradients on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Impacts of climatic means on spring phenology are well documented, whereas the role of climatic variance, such as occurrence of spring frosts, has long been neglected. A large elevational gradient of forests on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau provides an ideal platform to explore correlates of spring phenology and environmental factors. We tested the hypothesis that spring frost was a major factor regulating the timing of bud-leaf phenology by combining 5 years of in situ phenological observations of Abies georgei var. smithii with concurrent air temperature data along two altitudinal gradients. Mean lapse rate for the onset of bud swelling and leaf unfolding was 3.1 ± 0.5 days/100 m and 3.0 ± 0.6 days/100 m, respectively. Random forest analysis and conditional inference trees revealed that the frequency of freezing events was a critical factor in determining the timing of bud swelling, independent of topographic differences, varying accumulation of chilling days, and degree-days. In contrast, the onset of leaf unfolding was primarily controlled by the bud swelling onset. Thus, the timing of bud swelling and leaf unfolding appear to be controlled directly and indirectly, respectively, by spring frost. Using space-for-time substitution, the frequency of spring freezing events decreased by 7.1 days with 1 °C of warming. This study provides evidence for impacts of late spring frosts on spring phenology, which have been underappreciated in research on phenological sensitivity to climate but should be included in phenology models. Fewer spring freezing events with warming have important implications for the upward migration of alpine forests and treelines.

Impact of physiological and phenological change on carbon uptake on the Tibetan Plateau revealed through GPP estimation based on spaceborne solar-induced fluorescence

Although gross primary production (GPP) is an essential proxy for reflecting terrestrial ecosystem function, GPP estimation at regional scale on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is constrained by the lack of ground observations. Moreover, how climate-induced phenological and physiological change further affects carbon uptake in this region remains unclear. In this study, we first estimated GPP at 8-day intervals and a 0.5° resolution from 2007 to 2015 over the TP based on an improved approach and GOME-2 sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) retrievals. The obtained SIF-based GPP coincided well with flux observations and two state of the art GPP products, with a regional carbon uptake of 0.62 ± 0.04 PgC year^-1 or 307 ± 22 gC m^-2 year^-1. With the SIF-based GPP, two phenological indicators (start and end date of the growing season, i.e., SGS and EGS) and one physiological indicator (maximum photosynthesis capacity, GPP_max) were identified and their relative contributions to inter-annual GPP variability were further quantitatively separated using a multiple regression model. Advanced SGS, delayed EGS, and increasing GPP_max can all enhance carbon uptake and a combination of the three indicators can explain 72 ± 20% of GPP inter-annual variability. The response of annual GPP to phenological and physiological variations has significant altitude dependence, as the decline of annual GPP in most of the area is dominated by the GPP_max decline, while the increase of annual GPP in the high-altitude area is dominated by the advanced SGS. The response of all three indicators to both temperature and precipitation variation has great spatial heterogeneity. Our study suggests that remote sensing of SIF can provide a unique opportunity to estimate GPP in regions with a lack of ground observations and that our enhanced understanding of the impact of the climate-induced phenological and physiological change on GPP variability in alpine ecosystems can improve GPP estimation in a changing climate.

Contrasting strategies of xylem formation between black spruce and balsam fir in Quebec, Canada

Present-day global warming is occurring faster at higher elevations. Although there is much information regarding the divergent responses of tree growth to climate change, the altitudinal patterns of species-specific xylogenesis remains poorly understood. We investigated the xylogenesis of balsam fir (Abies balsamea Mill.) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill. B.S.P.) at two elevations in Quebec (Canada). The number of enlarging and mature cells of the developing tree ring were counted on microcores collected weekly between 2011 and 2014. At the lower site, the growth pattern and duration of xylogenesis were similar between species. No difference in responses to temperature and solar radiation between species was observed. At the higher site, however, cell production was higher and lasted longer in balsam fir than black spruce. Furthermore, the xylem growth of balsam fir had a stronger response to temperature and solar radiation than black spruce. These findings demonstrate the contrasting strategies of wood formation of the two species, with black spruce being more conservative than balsam fir. Our study provides evidence that sympatric species can have species-specific growth dynamics and site-specific responses to the local environment. Predictions of tree growth under a changing environment require the incorporation of species-specific growth strategies.

A Dual Stable Isotope Approach Unravels Common Climate Signals and Species-Specific Responses to Environmental Change Stored in Multi-Century Tree-Ring Series from the Tibetan Plateau

Tree-rings are recorders of environmental signals and are therefore often used to reconstruct past environmental conditions. In this paper, we present four annually resolved, multi-centennial tree-ring isotope series from the southeastern Tibetan plateau. The investigation site, where juniper and spruce trees jointly occur, is one of the highest known tree-stands in the world. Tree ring cellulose oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotopes were analyzed for a common period of 1685–2007 AD to investigate climate–isotope relationships. Therefore, various climate parameters from a local meteorological station and from the CRU 4.02 dataset were used. Tree-ring δ18O of both species revealed highly significant sensitivities with a high degree of coherence to hydroclimate variables during the growing season. The obtained δ18O–climate relationships can even be retained using a species mean. In contrast, the individual δ13C series indicated a weaker and non-uniform response to the tested variables. Underlying species-specific responses and adaptations to the long-term trend in atmospheric CO2 bias even after a trend correction identified dominant environmental factors triggering the tree-ring δ13C at our site. However, analysis of individual intrinsic water-use efficiency in juniper and spruce trees indicated a species-specific adaptation strategy to climate change.

Climate Warming Alters Age-Dependent Growth Sensitivity to Temperature in Eurasian Alpine Treelines

Treeline ecotones are considered early-warning monitors of the effects of climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems, but it is still unclear how tree growth at treeline will track the forecasted temperature rise in these cold environments. Here, we address this issue by analysing and projecting growth responses to climate on two different cold-limited alpine treelines: Pinus uncinata Ram. in the Spanish Pyrenees and Larix sibirica Ledeb. in the Russian Polar Urals. We assess radial-growth changes as a function of tree age and long-term climate variability using dendrochronology and a process-based model of tree growth. Climate‒growth relationships were compared considering young (age < 50 years) and old trees (age > 75 years) separately. Warm summer conditions enhanced radial growth, particularly after the 1980s, in the Polar Urals sites, whereas growth was positively related to warm spring and winter conditions in the Pyrenees sites. These associations were stronger in young than in old trees for both tree species and regions. Forecasted warm conditions are expected to enhance growth rates in both regions, while the growing season is forecasted to lengthen in the Pyrenees treelines, mostly in young trees. The observed age-related responses to temperature also depend on the forecasted warming rates. Although the temperature sensitivity is overall increasing for young trees, those responses seem more divergent, or even reversed, throughout the contrasting emission scenarios. The RCP 8.5 emission scenario corresponding to the most pronounced warming and drier conditions (+4.8 °C) could also amplify drought stress in young trees from the Pyrenees treelines. Our modelling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate functional thresholds for tree growth in treeline ecotones under warmer conditions.

Acceleration of global vegetation greenup from combined effects of climate change and human land management

Global warming and human land management have greatly influenced vegetation growth through both changes in spring phenology and photosynthetic primary production. This will presumably impact the velocity of vegetation greenup (Vgreenup, the daily rate of changes in vegetation productivity during greenup period), yet little is currently known about the spatio-temporal patterns of Vgreenup of global vegetation. Here, we define Vgreenup as the ratio of the amplitude of greenup (Agreenup) to the duration of greenup (Dgreenup) and derive global Vgreenup from 34-year satellite leaf area index (LAI) observations to study spatio-temporal dynamics of Vgreenup at the global, hemispheric, and ecosystem scales. We find that 19.9% of the pixels analyzed (n = 1,175,453) experienced significant trends toward higher greenup rates by an average of 0.018 m²  m^-2  day^-1 for 1982-2015 as compared to 8.6% of pixels with significant negative trends (p < 0.05). Global distribution and dynamics of Vgreenup show high spatial heterogeneity and ecosystem-specific patterns, which is primarily determined by the high spatial variation in Agreenup, while the temporal dynamics of Vgreenup are directly controlled by both changes in Dgreenup and Agreenup. Areas with the largest Vgreenup and largest positive trends are both observed in deciduous and mixed forests as compared to nonforest ecosystems showing both lower Vgreenup and trends. For nonforest ecosystems, human-managed ecosystems (e.g., rangelands and rainfed croplands) exhibited higher Vgreenup and positive trends than those of natural counterparts, suggesting strong imprints of human land management on terrestrial ecosystem functioning. Globally, warming has accelerated Vgreenup in temperature-constrained high latitude forest ecosystems and arctic regions, but decelerated Vgreenup in temperate and arid/semiarid areas. These results suggest that the combined effects of climate change and human land management have greatly accelerated global vegetation greenup, with important implications for changes in terrestrial ecosystem functioning and global carbon cycling.

Remote Sensing Detection of Vegetation and Landform Damages by Coal Mining on the Tibetan Plateau

In order to satisfy the needs of constant economic growth, the pressure to exploit natural resources has been increasing rapidly in China. Particularly with the implementation of the National Western Development Strategies since 1999, more and more mining activities and related infrastructure constructions have been conducted on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Mining activities are known to have substantial impacts on plant dynamics and hence the water and energy cycles. Identifying mining activities and quantifying their effects on vegetation cover are critical to the monitoring and protection of the pristine TP environment. Thus, this study aims to develop an automated approach that detects the timing of initial mining development and assess the spatial distribution of mining-ruined vegetation. The Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) algorithm was used to decompose the signal in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series derived from high-frequency MODIS images, and to detect abrupt changes of surface vegetation. Results show that the BFAST algorithm is able to effectively identify abrupt changes in vegetation cover as a result of open-mining development on the studied alpine grassland. The testing study in Muli Town of Qinghai Province shows that the mining development began in 2003 and massive destructions of vegetation cover followed between 2008 and 2012. The integrated use of Landsat imagery and multi-temporal DEMs further reveals detailed areal and volumetric changes in the mining site. This study demonstrates the potential of applying multi-mission satellite datasets to assess large-scale environmental influences from mining development, and will be beneficial to environmental conservation and sustainable use of natural resources in remote regions.

Climatic Suitability of the Geographic Distribution of Stipa breviflora in Chinese Temperate Grassland under Climate Change

Stipa breviflora, a dominant species of Chinese temperate grassland, is vulnerable to climate change. A quantitative description of the changes in the geographic distribution of S. breviflora under climate change can provide a reference for potential changes in Chinese temperate grassland and the necessary countermeasures to cope with climate change. In this study, the relationship between the geographic distribution of S. breviflora and the climate, and its inter-decadal change in geographic distribution and climatic suitability from 1961 to 2040 were investigated. The results showed that S. breviflora’s geographic distribution could be simulated very well by the MaxEnt model, and its climatic suitability could be divided into four levels—most suitable, medium suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable areas—based on its existence probability from the MaxEnt model. In the past 50 years, the total climate-suitable area for S. breviflora’s potential geographical distribution exhibited an obvious increase and a trend of northward expansion, which was larger than the current distribution area. The total climate-suitable area would increase by about 6.7% and decrease by 11.5% from 2011–2040 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively; however, the most suitable area increased and moved to western areas of Tibet, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The results revealed that the distribution area of S. breviflora still has greater potential for expansion.