Insect outbreak shifts the direction of selection from fast to slow growth rates in the long-lived conifer Pinus ponderosa

Declining tree growth resilience mediates subsequent forest mortality in the US Mountain West

Climate change-triggered forest die-off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of stand-level mortality. Here, we use an extensive tree-ring dataset collected at ~3000 permanent forest inventory plots, spanning 13 dominant species across the US Mountain West, where forests have experienced strong drought and extensive die-off has been observed in the past two decades, to test the hypothesis that tree growth resilience to drought can explain and improve predictions of observed stand-level mortality. We found substantial increases in growth variability and temporal autocorrelation as well declining drought resistance and resilience for a number of species over the second half of the 20th century. Declining resilience and low tree growth were strongly associated with cross- and within-species patterns of mortality. Resilience metrics had similar explicative power compared to climate and stand structure, but the covariance structure among predictors implied that the effect of tree resilience on mortality could partially be explained by stand and climate variables. We conclude that tree growth resilience offers highly valuable insights on tree physiology by integrating the effect of stressors on forest mortality but may have only moderate potential to improve large-scale projections of forest die-off under climate change.

Pest defences under weak selection exert a limited influence on the evolution of height growth and drought avoidance in marginal pine populations

While droughts, intensified by climate change, have been affecting forests worldwide, pest epidemics are a major source of uncertainty for assessing drought impacts on forest trees. Thus far, little information has documented the adaptability and evolvability of traits related to drought and pests simultaneously. We conducted common-garden experiments to investigate how several phenotypic traits (i.e. height growth, drought avoidance based on water-use efficiency inferred from δ¹³C and pest resistance based on defence traits) interact in five mature lodgepole pine populations established in four progeny trials in western Canada. The relevance of interpopulation variation in climate sensitivity highlighted that seed-source warm populations had greater adaptive capability than cold populations. In test sites, warming generated taller trees with higher δ¹³C and increased the evolutionary potential of height growth and δ¹³C across populations. We found, however, no pronounced gradient in defences and their evolutionary potential along populations or test sites. Response to selection was weak in defences across test sites, but high for height growth particularly at warm test sites. Response to the selection of δ¹³C varied depending on its selective strength relative to height growth. We conclude that warming could promote the adaptability and evolvability of growth response and drought avoidance with a limited evolutionary influence from pest (biotic) pressures.

Plant carbohydrate storage: intra- and inter-specific trade-offs reveal a major life history trait

Trade-offs among carbon sinks constrain how trees physiologically, ecologically, and evolutionarily respond to their environments. These trade-offs typically fall along a productive growth to conservative, bet-hedging continuum. How nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) stored in living tree cells (known as carbon stores) fit in this trade-off framework is not well understood. We examined relationships between growth and storage using both within species genetic variation from a common garden, and across species phenotypic variation from a global database. We demonstrate that storage is actively accumulated, as part of a conservative, bet-hedging life history strategy. Storage accumulates at the expense of growth both within and across species. Within the species Populus trichocarpa, genetic trade-offs show that for each additional unit of wood area growth (in cm²  yr^-1 ) that genotypes invest in, they lose 1.2 to 1.7 units (mg g^-1 NSC) of storage. Across species, for each additional unit of area growth (in cm²  yr^-1 ), trees, on average, reduce their storage by 9.5% in stems and 10.4% in roots. Our findings impact our understanding of basic plant biology, fit storage into a widely used growth-survival trade-off spectrum describing life history strategy, and challenges the assumptions of passive storage made in ecosystem models today.

Mutually inclusive mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality

Unprecedented tree dieback across Central Europe caused by recent global change-type drought events highlights the need for a better mechanistic understanding of drought-induced tree mortality. Although numerous physiological risk factors have been identified, the importance of two principal mechanisms, hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, is still debated. It further remains largely unresolved how the local neighborhood composition affects individual mortality risk. We studied 9435 young trees of 12 temperate species planted in a diversity experiment in 2013 to assess how hydraulic traits, carbon dynamics, pest infestation, tree height and neighborhood competition influence individual mortality risk. Following the most extreme global change-type drought since record in 2018, one third of these trees died. Across species, hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) were negatively and a shift towards a higher sugar fraction in the non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pool positively associated with mortality risk. Moreover, trees infested by bark beetles had a higher mortality risk, and taller trees a lower mortality risk. Most neighborhood interactions were beneficial, although neighborhood effects were highly species-specific. Species that suffered more from drought, especially Larix spp. and Betula spp., tended to increase the survival probability of their neighbors and vice versa. While severe tissue dehydration marks the final stage of drought-induced tree mortality, we show that hydraulic failure is interrelated with a series of other, mutually inclusive processes. These include shifts in NSC pools driven by osmotic adjustment and/or starch depletion as well as pest infestation and are modulated by the size and species identity of a tree and its neighbors. A more holistic view that accounts for multiple causes of drought-induced tree mortality is required to improve predictions of trends in global forest dynamics and to identify mutually beneficial species combinations.

Empirically validated drought vulnerability mapping in the mixed conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada

Severe droughts are predicted to become more frequent in the future, and the consequences of such droughts on forests can be dramatic, resulting in massive tree mortality, rapid change in forest structure and composition, and substantially increased risk of catastrophic fire. Forest managers have tools at their disposal to try to mitigate these effects but are often faced with limited resources, forcing them to make choices about which parts of the landscape to target for treatment. Such planning can greatly benefit from landscape vulnerability assessments, but many existing vulnerability analyses are unvalidated and not grounded in robust empirical datasets. We combined robust sets of ground-based plot and remote sensing data, collected during the 2012-2016 California drought, to develop rigorously validated tools for assessing forest vulnerability to drought-related canopy tree mortality for the mixed conifer forests of the Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks and potentially for mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada as a whole. Validation was carried out using a large external dataset. The best models included normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, and species identity. Models indicated that tree survival probability decreased with greenness (as measured by NDVI) and elevation, particularly if trees were growing slowly. Overall, models showed good calibration and validation, especially for Abies concolor, which comprise a large majority of the trees in many mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Our models tended to overestimate mortality risk for Calocedrus decurrens and underestimate risk for pine species, in the latter case probably due to pine bark beetle outbreak dynamics. Validation results indicated dangers of overfitting, as well as showing that the inclusion of trees already under attack by bark beetles at the time of sampling can give false confidence in model strength, while also biasing predictions. These vulnerability tools should be useful to forest managers trying to assess which parts of their landscape were vulnerable during the 2012-2016 drought, and, with additional validation, may prove useful for ongoing assessments and predictions of future forest vulnerability.

On tree longevity

Large, majestic trees are iconic symbols of great age among living organisms. Published evidence suggests that trees do not die because of genetically programmed senescence in their meristems, but rather are killed by an external agent or a disturbance event. Long tree lifespans are therefore allowed by specific combinations of life history traits within realized niches that support resistance to, or avoidance of, extrinsic mortality. Another requirement for trees to achieve their maximum longevity is either sustained growth over extended periods of time or at least the capacity to increase their growth rates when conditions allow it. The growth plasticity and modularity of trees can then be viewed as an evolutionary advantage that allows them to survive and reproduce for centuries and millennia. As more and more scientific information is systematically collected on tree ages under various ecological settings, it is becoming clear that tree longevity is a key trait for global syntheses of life history strategies, especially in connection with disturbance regimes and their possible future modifications. In addition, we challenge the long-held notion that shade-tolerant, late-successional species have longer lifespans than early-successional species by pointing out that tree species with extreme longevity do not fit this paradigm. Identifying extremely old trees is therefore the groundwork not only for protecting and/or restoring entire landscapes, but also to revisit and update classic ecological theories that shape our understanding of environmental change.

Shared friends counterbalance shared enemies in old forests

Mycorrhizal mutualisms are nearly ubiquitous across plant communities. Yet, it is still unknown whether facilitation among plants arises primarily from these mycorrhizal networks or from physical and ecological attributes of plants themselves. Here, we tested the relative contributions of mycorrhizae and plants to both positive and negative biotic interactions to determine whether plant-soil feedbacks with mycorrhizae neutralize competition and enemies within multitrophic forest community networks. We used Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear modeling to examine mycorrhizal-guild-specific and mortality-cause-specific woody plant survival compiled from a spatially and temporally explicit data set comprising 101,096 woody plants from three mixed-conifer forests across western North America. We found positive plant-soil feedbacks for large-diameter trees: species-rich woody plant communities indirectly promoted large tree survival when connected via mycorrhizal networks. Shared mycorrhizae primarily counterbalanced apparent competition mediated by tree enemies (e.g., bark beetles, soil pathogens) rather than diffuse competition between plants. We did not find the same survival benefits for small trees or shrubs. Our findings suggest that lower large-diameter tree mortality susceptibility in species-rich temperate forests resulted from greater access to shared mycorrhizal networks. The interrelated importance of aboveground and belowground biodiversity to large tree survival may be critical for counteracting increasing pathogen, bark beetle, and density threats.

Genetic Variation for Economically Important Traits in Cupressus lusitanica in New Zealand

Increasing productivity and tolerance against cypress canker disease is an important goal in the Mexican white cypress breeding program in New Zealand, and screening has been in place since 1983. Cypress canker disease is caused by Seiridium cardinale and Seiridium cupressi, the current study presents the results of two progeny trials within the breeding program in the North Island of New Zealand. The trials were established as open-pollinated progeny tested and were assessed for diameter at breast height, branch size, canker severity score, malformation score, and stem straightness score and acceptability score. Heritability estimates were moderate ranging from 0.21 to 0.41 for diameter at breast height and from 0.14 to 0.31 for canker severity score. Stem form attributes showed heritability from 0.08 (malformation) to 0.38 (straightness). No trait showed any significant G × E interaction between investigated sites. This was supported by the very strong genetic correlations estimated between the traits recorded in Welcome Bay and Matata trials. Unfavourable genetic correlations ranging from 0.25 to 0.46 were found between diameter at breast height and canker severity score, indicating that the continued selection for genotypes with improved diameter at breast height would also increase susceptibility to cypress canker. Additionally, unfavourable genetic correlations ranging from 0.52 to 0.73 were found between branch size and diameter at breast height and should be considered in selection programs. The moderate heritability estimated for canker severity score indicates that breeding values for this trait could be predicted with acceptable accuracy and included in the breeding program for Cupressus lusitanica, enabling the identification of genotypes with tolerance to canker severity to be deployed to locations where cypress canker is present in New Zealand.

Why is Tree Drought Mortality so Hard to Predict?

Widespread tree mortality following droughts has emerged as an environmentally and economically devastating 'ecological surprise'. It is well established that tree physiology is important in understanding drought-driven mortality; however, the accuracy of predictions based on physiology alone has been limited. We propose that complicating factors at two levels stymie predictions of drought-driven mortality: (i) organismal-level physiological and site factors that obscure understanding of drought exposure and vulnerability and (ii) community-level ecological interactions, particularly with biotic agents whose effects on tree mortality may reverse expectations based on stress physiology. We conclude with a path forward that emphasizes the need for an integrative approach to stress physiology and biotic agent dynamics when assessing forest risk to drought-driven morality in a changing climate.

Selection patterns on early-life phenotypic traits in Pinus sylvestris are associated with precipitation and temperature along a climatic gradient in Europe

Understanding the dynamics of selection is key to predicting the response of tree species to new environmental conditions in the current context of climate change. However, selection patterns acting on early recruitment stages and their climatic drivers remain largely unknown in most tree species, despite being a critical period of their life cycle. We measured phenotypic selection on Pinus sylvestris seed mass, emergence time and early growth rate over 2 yr in four common garden experiments established along the latitudinal gradient of the species in Europe. Significant phenotypic plasticity and among-population genetic variation were found for all measured phenotypic traits. Heat and drought negatively affected fitness in the southern sites, but heavy rainfalls also decreased early survival in middle latitudes. Climate-driven directional selection was found for higher seed mass and earlier emergence time, while the form of selection on seedling growth rates differed among sites and populations. Evidence of adaptive and maladaptive phenotypic plasticity was found for emergence time and early growth rate, respectively. Seed mass, emergence time and early growth rate have an adaptive role in the early stages of P. sylvestris and climate strongly influences the patterns of selection on these fitness-related traits.

Mortality predispositions of conifers across western USA

Conifer mortality rates are increasing in western North America, but the physiological mechanisms underlying this trend are not well understood. We examined tree-ring-based radial growth along with stable carbon (C) and oxygen (O) isotope composition (δ¹³ C and δ¹⁸ O, respectively) of dying and surviving conifers at eight old-growth forest sites across a strong moisture gradient in the western USA to retrospectively investigate mortality predispositions. Compared with surviving trees, lower growth of dying trees was detected at least one decade before mortality at seven of the eight sites. Intrinsic water-use efficiency increased over time in both dying and surviving trees, with a weaker increase in dying trees at five of the eight sites. C starvation was a strong correlate of conifer mortality based on a conceptual model incorporating growth, δ¹³ C, and δ¹⁸ O. However, this approach does not capture processes that occur in the final months of survival. Ultimately, C starvation may lead to increased mortality vulnerability, but hydraulic failure or biotic attack may dominate the process during the end stages of mortality in these conifers.

Direct and correlated responses to artificial selection for growth and water-use efficiency in a Mediterranean pine

PREMISE

Persistence of tree populations in the face of global change relies on their capacity to respond to biotic and abiotic stressors through plastic or adaptive changes. Genetic adaptation will depend on the additive genetic variation within populations and the heritability of traits related to stress tolerance. Because traits can be genetically linked, selective pressure acting on one trait may lead to correlated responses in other traits.

METHODS

To test direct and correlated responses to selection for growth and drought tolerance in Pinus halepensis, we selected trees in a parental population for higher growth and greater water-use efficiency (WUE) and compared their offspring with the offspring of random trees from the parental population in two contrasting common gardens. We estimated direct responses to selection for growth and WUE and correlated responses for growth and tolerance to abiotic and biotic stressors.

RESULTS

We found a strong response to selection and high realized heritability for WUE, but no response to selection for growth. Correlated responses to selection in other life-history traits were not significant, except for concentration of some chemical defenses, which was greater in the offspring of mother trees selected for growth than in the offspring of unselected control trees.

CONCLUSIONS

The empirical evidence of direct responses to selection for high WUE suggests that P. halepensis has the potential to evolve in response to increasing drought stress. Contrary to expectations, the results are not conclusive of a potential negative impact of WUE and growth selection on other key life-history traits.

Few generalizable patterns of tree-level mortality during extreme drought and concurrent bark beetle outbreaks

Tree mortality associated with drought and concurrent bark beetle outbreaks is expected to increase with further climate change. When these two types of disturbance occur in concert it complicates our ability to accurately predict future forest mortality. The recent extreme California USA drought and bark beetle outbreaks resulted in extensive tree mortality and provides a unique opportunity to examine questions of why some trees die while others survive these co-occurring disturbances. We use plot-level data combined with a three-proxy tree-level approach using radial growth, carbon isotopes, and resin duct metrics to evaluate 1) whether variability in stand structure, tree growth or size, carbon isotope discrimination, or defenses precede mortality, 2) how relationships between these proxies differ for surviving and now-dead trees, and 3) whether generalizable risk factors for tree mortality exist across pinyon pine (Pinus monophylla), ponderosa pine (P. ponderosa), white fir (Abies concolor), and incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens) affected by the combination of drought and beetle outbreaks. We find that risk factors associated with mortality differ between species, and that few generalizable patterns exist when bark beetle outbreaks occur in concert with a particularly long, hot drought. We see evidence that both long-term differences in physiology and shorter-term beetle-related selection and variability in defenses influence mortality susceptibility for ponderosa pine, whereas beetle dynamics may play a more prominent role in mortality patterns for white fir and pinyon pine. In contrast, incense cedar mortality appears to be attributable to long-term effects of growth suppression. Risk factors that predispose some trees to drought and beetle-related mortality likely reflect species-specific strategies for dealing with these particular disturbance types. The combined influence of beetles and drought necessitates the consideration of multiple, species-specific risk factors to more accurately model forest mortality in the face of similar extreme events more likely under future climates.

Stronger influence of growth rate than severity of drought stress on mortality of large ponderosa pines during the 2012-2015 California drought

Forests in the western United States are being subject to more frequent and severe drought events as the climate warms. The 2012-2015 California drought is a recent example, whereby drought stress was exacerbated by a landscape-scale outbreak of western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) and resulted in widespread mortality of dominant canopy species including ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). In this study, we compared pairs of large surviving and beetle-killed ponderosa pines following the California drought in the southern Sierra Nevadas to evaluate physiological characteristics related to survival. Inter-annual growth rates and tree-ring stable isotopes (∆¹³C and δ¹⁸O) were utilized to compare severity of drought stress and climate sensitivity in ponderosa pines that survived and those that were killed by western pine beetle. Compared to beetle-killed trees, surviving trees had higher growth rates and grew in plots with lower ponderosa pine basal area. However, there were no detectable differences in tree-ring ∆¹³C, δ¹⁸O, or stable isotope sensitivity to drought-related meteorological variables. These results indicate that differences in severity of drought stress had little influence on local, inter-tree differences in growth rate and survival of large ponderosa pines during this drought event. Many previous studies have shown that large trees are more likely to be attacked and killed by bark beetles compared to small trees. Our results further suggest that among large ponderosa pines, those that were more resistant to drought stress and bark beetle attacks were in the upper echelon of growth rates among trees within a stand and across the landscape.

Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs

Land vegetation is currently taking up large amounts of atmospheric CO₂, possibly due to tree growth stimulation. Extant models predict that this growth stimulation will continue to cause a net carbon uptake this century. However, there are indications that increased growth rates may shorten trees' lifespan and thus recent increases in forest carbon stocks may be transient due to lagged increases in mortality. Here we show that growth-lifespan trade-offs are indeed near universal, occurring across almost all species and climates. This trade-off is directly linked to faster growth reducing tree lifespan, and not due to covariance with climate or environment. Thus, current tree growth stimulation will, inevitably, result in a lagged increase in canopy tree mortality, as is indeed widely observed, and eventually neutralise carbon gains due to growth stimulation. Results from a strongly data-based forest simulator confirm these expectations. Extant Earth system model projections of global forest carbon sink persistence are likely too optimistic, increasing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Indication of Quantitative Multiple Disease Resistance to Foliar Pathogens in Pinus radiata D.Don in New Zealand

Increasing resistance against foliar diseases is an important goal in the Pinus radiata D.Don breeding program in New Zealand, and screening for resistance has been in place for some time, since the late 1960s. The current study presents results of four progeny trials within the breeding program to investigate whether multiple disease resistance could be detected against three different needle diseases in P. radiata: Dothistroma needle blight (DNB) caused by Dothistroma septosporum, Cyclaneusma needle cast (CNC) caused by Cyclaneusma minus, and red needle cast (RNC) caused by Phytophthora pluvialis. Four progeny trials in the North Island of New Zealand were available to estimate heritabilities and between-trait genetic correlations. Two of the trials were assessed for DNB, involving 63 full-sib families. A third trial was assessed for CNC, involving 172 half-sib families, and a fourth trial was assessed for RNC, involving 170 half-sib families. Disease resistances had moderate estimates of heritability (0.28-0.48) in all trials. We investigated the potential for multiple disease resistance to the three foliar diseases by estimating genetic correlations between disease resistances using a spatial linear mixed model. The correlation between DNB and CNC resistance was favorable and strong (0.81), indicating that genotypes that are highly resistant to DNB also have a high resistance to CNC. These results suggest that selection based on resistance to DNB could allow for simultaneous indirect selection for resistance to CNC, usually only expressed at a later age. This would allow selections to be made earlier due to the earlier expression of DNB than CNC and reduce the number of expensive disease assessments being undertaken. Conversely, genetic correlation estimates for RNC with DNB and CNC were close to zero, and very imprecise. As such, later-age assessments for this disease would still be required.

Larger Resin Ducts Are Linked to the Survival of Lodgepole Pine Trees During Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Periodic mountain pine beetle outbreaks have killed millions of hectares of lodgepole pine forests in western North America. Within these forests some pine trees often remain alive. It has been rarely documented whether anatomical defenses differ between beetle-killed and remaining live pine trees, especially at the northern latitudinal range of beetles in North America. In this study, we compared the resin duct-based anatomical defenses and radial growth between beetle-killed and live residual lodgepole pine trees, and we characterized the resin ducts and the growth of the residual trees before and after outbreak. We found that tree radial growth was not associated with tree survival. The best two predictors of tree survival were resin duct size and production (number per year). Trees having larger but fewer resin ducts showed higher survival probability compared to those with smaller but more abundant resin ducts annually. Residual trees had larger resin ducts prior to the outbreak and continued having so after the outbreak. We further categorized residual trees as healthy (having no signs or symptoms of insect or pathogen attacks), declining (with signs or symptoms of biotic attacks), and survived (from mountain pine beetle attacks during the outbreak) to investigate resin duct-based anatomical defenses among them. Healthy trees had consistently larger resin ducts than declining trees in the past 20 years in post-outbreak stands. Survival trees ranked between healthy and declining trees. Overall, these results demonstrate that resin duct size of lodgepole pine trees can be an important component of tree defenses against mountain pine beetle attacks and suggest that lodgepole pine trees with large resin ducts are likely to show resistance to future bark beetle attacks.

Conflicting functional effects of xylem pit structure relate to the growth-longevity trade-off in a conifer species

Consistent with a ubiquitous life history trade-off, trees exhibit a negative relationship between growth and longevity both among and within species. However, the mechanistic basis of this life history trade-off is not well understood. In addition to resource allocation conflicts among multiple traits, functional conflicts arising from individual morphological traits may also contribute to life history trade-offs. We hypothesized that conflicting functional effects of xylem structural traits contribute to the growth-longevity trade-off in trees. We tested this hypothesis by examining the extent to which xylem morphological traits (i.e., wood density, tracheid diameters, and pit structure) relate to growth rates and longevity in two natural populations of the conifer species Pinus ponderosa Hydraulic constraints arise as trees grow larger and xylem anatomical traits adjust to compensate. We disentangled the effects of size through ontogeny in individual trees and growth rates among trees on xylem traits by sampling each tree at multiple trunk diameters. We found that the oldest trees had slower lifetime growth rates compared with younger trees in the studied populations, indicating a growth-longevity trade-off. We further provide evidence that a single xylem trait, pit structure, with conflicting effects on xylem function (hydraulic safety and efficiency) relates to the growth-longevity trade-off in a conifer species. This study highlights that, in addition to trade-offs among multiple traits, functional constraints based on individual morphological traits like that of pit structure provide mechanistic insight into how and when life history trade-offs arise.

Successful Colonization of Lodgepole Pine Trees by Mountain Pine Beetle Increased Monoterpene Production and Exhausted Carbohydrate Reserves

Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests have experienced severe mortality from mountain pine beetle (MPB) (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) in western North America for the last several years. Although the mechanisms by which beetles kill host trees are unclear, they are likely linked to pine defense monoterpenes that are synthesized from carbohydrate reserves. However, how carbohydrates and monoterpenes interact in response to MPB colonization is unknown. Understanding this relationship could help to elucidate how pines succumb to bark beetle attack. We compared concentrations of individual and total monoterpenes and carbohydrates in the phloem of healthy pine trees with those naturally colonized by MPB. Trees attacked by MPB had nearly 300% more monoterpenes and 40% less carbohydrates. Total monoterpene concentrations were most strongly associated with the concentration of sugars in the phloem. These results suggest that bark beetle colonization likely depletes carbohydrate reserves by increasing the production of carbon-rich monoterpenes, and other carbon-based secondary compounds. Bark beetle attacks also reduce water transport causing the disruption of carbon transport between tree foliage and roots, which restricts carbon assimilation. Reduction in carbohydrate reserves likely contributes to tree mortality.