Dynamic population stage structure due to juvenile-adult asymmetry stabilizes complex ecological communities

Environmental Change Can Result in Irreversible Biodiversity Loss in Recently Formed Species Flocks

Adaptive radiations, where a lineage diversifies into multiple species exploiting different niches, are key drivers of biodiversity. It is therefore important to understand the factors that drive such radiations and how changing environmental conditions affect their persistence. Using a size-structured model, I study how changing environmental conditions impact the persistence of a six-species flock. At birth, individuals are constrained to feed on a shared resource. As they mature, individuals diversify into six specialized forms, each adapted to feed on specific resources. Environmental changes affecting one species can trigger a cascade, altering the size structure of the focal species and subsequently affecting resource availability for other species. Under these altered ecological conditions, coexistence of all species becomes impossible. Importantly, once species are lost, they cannot re-establish even when environmental conditions return to their original state, resulting in irreversible biodiversity loss. These findings underscore the vulnerability of species flocks to environmental change and highlight the potential for unexpected outcomes in the face of shifting ecological conditions due to climate change.

Availability of Juvenile Refuge Habitats Explains the Dynamics and Size Structure of Cannibalistic Fish Populations

AbstractMany animals exhibit ontogenetic niche shifts as they grow, which strongly affects population dynamics. However, such niche shifts can be constrained by the physical environment that the population occupies. To study this, we develop a physiologically structured population model parameterized for brown trout and vary the availability of a stream used as an exclusive juvenile nursery habitat. We find fewer but large, fast-growing adults in lakes with small streams and more but smaller, slow-growing adults in lakes with large streams. We show that the mechanism behind this pattern is a reduced ability of cannibals to control juvenile survival in the lake with increasing stream availability. Juveniles emerging from the stream at larger sizes intensify competition with the lake-dwelling adults, leading to slower individual growth. These results are similar for other sources of size-dependent juvenile mortality in the lake. Field data from brown trout lakes across a stream size gradient show the same pattern: reduced trout growth and fewer large individuals in lakes with larger tributary streams. We show how ontogenetic niche shifts and stage-specific habitat availability affect population structure and dynamics through size-dependent mortality and competition. Our results provide an important foundation that may help design effective conservation and restoration strategies.

Quantifying the importance of ontogeny and prey type in modeling top-down and bottom-up effects of an ectothermic predator

Dietary decisions by predators can affect prey abundance and overall food web dynamics. Many predators do not forage on the same prey at the same frequency throughout their lives. Ontogenetic shifts in prey preference are not, however, often accounted for when modeling food web relationships, despite growing literature that suggests that stage specific dietary relationships may be an important consideration when modeling trophic interactions. We investigated the importance of considering size-structure of a predator population with ontogenetic diet shifts in evaluating relationships with prey response using a manipulative experiment with the brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) in Guam. After removing ~ 40% of the snake population via toxic mammal carrion, we measured the strength of the relationship between snake density and the response of two types of prey (lizards and mammals). We evaluated these relationships based on total population size or division of the population into stage specific size categories based on diet preference predictions. We hypothesized that the density of juvenile snakes would correlate more strongly with lizard detections, while adult snakes would better correlate to rodent detections. We also measured reproductive output following changes in rates of prey detection. As expected by known ontogenetic shifts in dietary preference, explicit stage-based models better predicted shifts in rates of observed prey items than did total predator density for both lizards and mammals. Additionally, rodent detections were predictive of one reproductive pulse from snakes, while lizard detections were not predictive or correlated. Our findings support that consideration of predatory species stage-based dietary preference can be meaningful for understanding food web dynamics, particularly when a predator has a broad diet or one that changes through time.

Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions

This theme issue features 18 papers exploring ecological interactions, encompassing metabolic, social, and spatial connections alongside traditional trophic networks. This integration enriches food web research, offering insights into ecological dynamics. By examining links across organisms, populations, and ecosystems, a hierarchical approach emerges, connecting horizontal effects within organizational levels vertically across biological organization levels. The inclusion of interactions involving humans is a key focus, highlighting the need for their integration into ecology given the complex interactions between human activities and ecological systems in the Anthropocene. The comprehensive exploration in this theme issue sheds light on the interconnectedness of ecological systems and the importance of considering diverse interactions in understanding ecosystem dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Differential Stage-Specific Mortality as a Mechanism for Diversification

AbstractIndividual variability in mortality is widespread in nature. The general rule is that larger organisms have a greater chance of survival than smaller conspecifics. There is growing evidence that differential mortality between developmental stages has important consequences for the ecology and evolution of populations and communities. However, we know little about how it can influence diversification. Using an eco-evolutionary model of diversification that considers individual variability in mortality, I show that commonly observed differences in mortality between juveniles and adults can facilitate adaptive diversification. In particular, diversification is expected to be less restricted when mortality is more biased toward juveniles. Additionally, I find stage-specific differences in metabolic cost and foraging capacity to further facilitate diversification when adults are slightly superior competitors, due to either a lower metabolic cost or a higher foraging capacity, than juveniles. This is because by altering the population composition, differential stage-specific mortality and competitive ability can modulate the strength of intraspecific competition, which in turn determines the outcome of diversification. These results demonstrate the strong influence that ecological differences between developmental stages have on diversification and highlight the need for integrating developmental processes into diversification theory.

Thermal dependence of Daphnia life history reveals asymmetries between key vital rates

Temperature variation affects virtually every aspect of ectotherms' ecological performance, such as their foraging rate, reproduction, and survival. Although these changes influence what happens at higher levels of organizations, such as populations and communities, qualitative changes in dynamics usually require some degree of asymmetry between key vital rates, i.e. that different vital rates, such as growth, development, fecundity and mortality rates, respond differently to temperature. In order to identify possible asymmetries among vital rates and/or life stages, we characterized the thermal response of individuals a clone of Daphnia sinensis, drawn from a high-mountain environment in Taiwan, and examined the temperature dependence of growth, maturation, reproduction, and mortality rates, as well as fitness measures (r and R₀) at eight temperatures. Daphnia sinensis was able to maintain reproductive success over a broad range of temperatures, much wider than the one experienced in its environment. However, negative effects of temperature were perceptible at temperatures much lower than the highest one at which they can achieve reproductive success. Adult mortality greatly increased for temperatures above 23 °C, and other vital rates started to decelerate, resulting in a large drop in lifetime reproductive success. This finding implies that D. sinensis may be able to persist over a wide range of temperatures, but also that it may become more sensitive to the detrimental effect of species interactions at increased temperatures. Different vital rates responded relatively similarly at low temperatures, but the degree of asymmetry among these rates was much more pronounced at higher temperatures. In particular, rates associated with adult performance decelerated more strongly than juveniles' rates. These findings indicate that elevated temperatures affect the balance between juvenile and adult performance, which is known to have a crucial role in Daphnia population dynamics. We discuss the implications of these results for the dynamics of structured populations.

Complex life cycles drive community assembly through immigration and adaptive diversification

Most animals undergo ontogenetic niche shifts during their life. Yet, standard ecological theory builds on models that ignore this complexity. Here, we study how complex life cycles, where juvenile and adult individuals each feed on different sets of resources, affect community richness. Two different modes of community assembly are considered: gradual adaptive evolution and immigration of new species with randomly selected phenotypes. We find that under gradual evolution complex life cycles can lead to both higher and lower species richness when compared to a model of species with simple life cycles that lack an ontogenetic niche shift. Thus, complex life cycles do not per se increase the scope for gradual adaptive diversification. However, complex life cycles can lead to significantly higher species richness when communities are assembled trough immigration, as immigrants can occupy isolated peaks of the dynamic fitness landscape that are not accessible via gradual evolution.

Interpreting random forest analysis of ecological models to move from prediction to explanation

As modeling tools and approaches become more advanced, ecological models are becoming more complex. Traditional sensitivity analyses can struggle to identify the nonlinearities and interactions emergent from such complexity, especially across broad swaths of parameter space. This limits understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying model behavior. Machine learning approaches are a potential answer to this issue, given their predictive ability when applied to complex large datasets. While perceptions that machine learning is a "black box" linger, we seek to illuminate its interpretive potential in ecological modeling. To do so, we detail our process of applying random forests to complex model dynamics to produce both high predictive accuracy and elucidate the ecological mechanisms driving our predictions. Specifically, we employ an empirically rooted ontogenetically stage-structured consumer-resource simulation model. Using simulation parameters as feature inputs and simulation output as dependent variables in our random forests, we extended feature analyses into a simple graphical analysis from which we reduced model behavior to three core ecological mechanisms. These ecological mechanisms reveal the complex interactions between internal plant demography and trophic allocation driving community dynamics while preserving the predictive accuracy achieved by our random forests.

Compensatory responses of vital rates attenuate impacts of competition on population growth and promote coexistence

Competition is among the most important factors regulating plant population and community dynamics, but we know little about how different vital rates respond to competition and jointly determine population growth and species coexistence. We conducted a field experiment and parameterised integral projection models to model the population growth of 14 herbaceous plant species in the absence and presence of neighbours across an elevation gradient (284 interspecific pairs). We found that suppressed individual growth and seedling establishment contributed the most to competition-induced declines in population growth, although vital rate contributions varied greatly between species and with elevation. In contrast, size-specific survival and flowering probability and seed production were frequently enhanced under competition. These compensatory vital rate responses were nearly ubiquitous (occurred in 92% of species pairs) and significantly reduced niche overlap and stabilised coexistence. Our study highlights the importance of demographic processes for regulating population and community dynamics, which has often been neglected by classic coexistence theories.

A bioenergetic framework for aboveground terrestrial food webs

Bioenergetic approaches have been greatly influential for understanding community functioning and stability and predicting effects of environmental changes on biodiversity. These approaches use allometric relationships to establish species' trophic interactions and consumption rates and have been successfully applied to aquatic ecosystems. Terrestrial ecosystems, where body mass is less predictive of plant-consumer interactions, present inherent challenges that these models have yet to meet. Here, we discuss the processes governing terrestrial plant-consumer interactions and develop a bioenergetic framework integrating those processes. Our framework integrates bioenergetics specific to terrestrial plants and their consumers within a food web approach while also considering mutualistic interactions. Such a framework is poised to advance our understanding of terrestrial food webs and to predict their responses to environmental changes.

Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions

In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting-but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.

Effect of delay on the emergent stability patterns in generalized Lotka-Volterra ecological dynamics

Understanding the conditions of feasibility and stability in ecological systems is a major challenge in theoretical ecology. The seminal work of May in 1972 and recent developments based on the theory of random matrices have shown the existence of emergent universal patterns of both stability and feasibility in ecological dynamics. However, only a few studies have investigated the role of delay coupled with population dynamics in the emergence of feasible and stable states. In this work, we study the effects of delay on generalized Loka-Volterra population dynamics of several interacting species in closed ecological environments. First, we investigate the relation between feasibility and stability of the modelled ecological community in the absence of delay and find a simple analytical relation when intra-species interactions are dominant. We then show how, by increasing the time delay, there is a transition in the stability phases of the population dynamics: from an equilibrium state to a stable non-point attractor phase. We calculate analytically the critical delay of that transition and show that it is in excellent agreement with numerical simulations. Finally, following a similar approach to characterizing stability in empirical studies, we investigate the coefficient of variation, which quantifies the magnitude of population fluctuations. We show that in the oscillatory regime induced by the delay, the variability at community level decreases for increasing diversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Emergent phenomena in complex physical and socio-technical systems: from cells to societies'.