Fertility decline in Prussia, 1875-1910: a pooled cross-section time series analysis

Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India's alternative fertility transition

OBJECTIVE

To compare fertility in India to both low-to-middle-income and high-income countries (LMICs and HICs) and describe the patterns that have accompanied India's transition to low fertility.

METHODS

We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the United Nations (UN), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to observe factors associated with fertility decline in 36 Indian states and 76 countries.

RESULTS

Although fertility in India has declined to levels similar to HICs, women's entry into marriage and initiation of childbearing are more in line with patterns found in LMICs. The vast majority of women in India (97%) are married by age 30, and their average age at first birth is only 21.3 years old. In spite of these patterns, average fertility has declined in India as a result of earlier termination of childbearing. Among more recent cohorts, fewer women progressed to higher-order births and about half of women obtained a sterilization by age 35.

CONCLUSIONS

India has reached low fertility by mechanisms outside the traditional indicators of fertility decline. In contrast to countries that have achieved low fertility through delayed age at first birth, women in India have continued to enter unions and bear children early, lowered their age at last birth, and increasingly ended their fertility via sterilization following the birth of two children.

CONTRIBUTION

Evidence from India reveals an alternative pathway to low fertility, highlighting the limitations of traditional socioeconomic indicators for explaining fertility decline.

Effects of family planning on fertility behaviour across the demographic transition

The adoption of contraception often coincides with market integration and has transformative effects on fertility behavior. Yet many parents in small-scale societies make decisions about whether and when to adopt family planning in an environment where the payoffs to  have smaller families are uncertain. Here we track the fertility of Maya women across 90 years, spanning the transition from natural to contracepting fertility. We first situate the uncertainty in which fertility decisions are made and model how childbearing behaviors respond. We find that contraception, a key factor in cultural transmission models of fertility decline, initially has little effect on family size as women appear to hedge their bets and adopt fertility control only at the end of their reproductive careers. Family planning is, however, associated with the spread of lower fertility in later cohorts. Distinguishing influences on the origin versus spread of a behaviour provides valuable insight into causal factors shaping individual and normative changes in fertility.

Fertility transition and socioeconomic development in districts of India, 2001-2016

The fertility-development relationship is bi-directional, context-specific, multi-phased and inconsistent over time. Indian districts provide an ideal setting to study this association due to their size, diversity and disparity in socioeconomic development. The objective of this study was to understand the association of fertility and socioeconomic development among the 640 districts of India. Data were drawn from multiple sources: Censuses of India 2001 and 2011; DLHS-2; NFHS-4; and other published sources. A district-level data file for Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and a set of developmental indices were prepared for the 640 districts for 2001 and 2016. Computation of a composite index (District Development Index, DDI), Ordinary Least Squares, Two Stage Least Squares and panel regressions were employed. By 2016, almost half of all Indian districts had attained below-replacement fertility, and 15% had a TFR of above 3.0. The DDI of India increased from 0.399 in 2001 to 0.511 by 2016 and showed large variations across districts. The correlation coefficient between TFR and DDI was -0.658 in 2001 and -0.640 in 2016. Districts with a DDI of between 0.3 and 0.6 in 2001 had experienced a fertility decline of more than 20%. The fertility-development relationship was found to be strongly negative, convex and consistent over time, but the level of association varied regionally. For any given level of DDI, fertility in 2016 was lower than in 2001; and the association was stronger in districts with a DDI below 0.45. The negative convex association between the two was prominent in the northern, central and eastern regions and the curves were flatter in the west, south and north-east. The increasing number of districts with low fertility and low development draws much attention. Some outlying districts in the north-eastern states had high TFR and high DDI (>0.6). Based on the findings, a multi-layered strategy in districts with low socioeconomic development is recommended. Additional investment in education, child health, employment generation and provisioning of contraceptives would improve the human development to achieve India's demographic goals.

Spatial and Social Distance at the Onset of the Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1880-1900

Most studies on the fertility transition have focused either on macro-level trends or on micro-level patterns with limited geographic scope. Much less attention has been given to the interplay between individual characteristics and contextual conditions, including geographic location. Here we investigate the relevance of geography and socioeconomic status for understanding fertility variation in the initial phase of the Swedish fertility transition. We conduct spatially sensitive multilevel analyses on full-count individual-level census data. Our results show that the elite constituted the vanguard group in the fertility decline and that the shift in fertility behavior occurred quickly among them in virtually all parts of Sweden. Other socioeconomic status groups experienced the decline with some delay, and their decline patterns were more clustered around early centers of the decline. Long-distance migrants initially had higher fertility than people living close to their birthplace. However, as the fertility decline unfolded, this advantage was either reduced or reversed. This supports the view that migration and fertility are linked in this process. Our results confirm that socioeconomic status differences were of considerable relevance in structuring the fertility transition. The degree to which spatial distance fostered spatial variation in the fertility decline seems to have been negatively correlated with socioeconomic status, with the pattern of decline among the elite showing the lowest degree of spatial variation.

Socio-economic status and fertility decline: Insights from historical transitions in Europe and North America

The timings of historical fertility transitions in different regions are well understood by demographers, but much less is known regarding their specific features and causes. In the study reported in this paper, we used longitudinal micro-level data for five local populations in Europe and North America to analyse the relationship between socio-economic status and fertility during the fertility transition. Using comparable analytical models and class schemes for each population, we examined the changing socio-economic differences in marital fertility and related these to common theories on fertility behaviour. Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis of universally high fertility among the upper classes in pre-transitional society, but do support the idea that the upper classes acted as forerunners by reducing their fertility before other groups. Farmers and unskilled workers were the latest to start limiting their fertility. Apart from these similarities, patterns of class differences in fertility varied significantly between populations.

The impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the historical fertility decline: a comparative analysis of Canada, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and the USA

We used micro-level data from the censuses of 1900 to investigate the impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the fertility transition in five Northern American and European countries (Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the USA). The study is therefore unlike most previous research on the historical fertility transition, which used aggregate data to examine economic correlates of demographic behaviour at regional or national levels. Our data included information on number of children by age, occupation of the mother and father, place of residence, and household context. The results show highly similar patterns across countries, with the elite and upper middle classes having considerably lower net fertility early in the transition. These patterns remain after controlling for a range of individual and community-level fertility determinants and geographical unobserved heterogeneity.

Bayes plus Brass: estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data

Estimates of fertility in small areas are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. In these circumstances estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required; they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas; and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step procedure for estimating total fertility in such circumstances and illustrate it by applying the method to data from the 2000 Brazilian Census for over 5,000 municipalities. Our proposed procedure first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods and then applies a new variant of Brass's P/F parity correction procedure that is robust to conditions of rapid fertility decline. Supplementary material at the project website ( http://schmert.net/BayesBrass ) will allow readers to replicate all the authors' results in this paper using their data and programs.

Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: child mortality, real wages, and unemployment, 1860-1939

Previous studies of the fertility decline in Europe are often limited to an earlier stage of the marital fertility decline, when the decline tended to be slower and before the large increase in earnings in the 1920s. Starting in 1860 (before the onset of the decline), this study follows marital fertility trends until 1939, when fertility reached lower levels than ever before. Using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), this study shows that mortality decline, a rise in real income, and unemployment account for the decline in the Netherlands. This finding suggests that marital fertility decline was an adjustment to social and economic change, leaving little room for attitudinal change that is independent of social and economic change.

Deliberate control in a natural fertility population: southern Sweden, 1766-1864

In this article, we analyze fertility control in a rural population characterized by natural fertility, using survival analysis on a longitudinal data set at the individual level combined with food prices. Landless and semilandless families responded strongly to short-term economic stress stemming from changes in prices. The fertility response, both to moderate and large changes in food prices, was the strongest within six months after prices changed in the fall, which means that the response was deliberate. People foresaw bad times and planned their fertility accordingly. The result highlights the importance of deliberate control of the timing of childbirth before the fertility transition, not in order to achieve a certain family size but, as in this case, to reduce the negative impacts of short-term economic stress.

The causes of stalling fertility transitions

An examination of fertility trends in countries with multiple DHS surveys found that in the 1990s fertility stalled in midtransition in seven countries: Bangladesh, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Kenya, Peru, and Turkey. In each of these countries fertility was high (more than six births per woman) in the 1950s and declined to fewer than five births per woman in the early or mid-1990s, before stalling. The level of stalling varied from 4.7 births per woman in Kenya to 2.5 births per woman in Turkey. An analysis of trends in the determinants of fertility revealed a systematic pattern of leveling off or near leveling in a number of determinants, including contraceptive use, the demand for contraception, and number of wanted births. The stalling countries did not experience significant increases in unwanted births or in the unmet need for contraception during the late 1990s, and program effort scores improved slightly, except in the Dominican Republic. These findings suggest no major deterioration in contraceptive access during the stall, but levels of unmet need and unwanted births are relatively high, and improvements in access to family planning methods would, therefore, be desirable. No significant link was found between the presence of a stall and trends in socioeconomic development, but at the onset of the stall the level of fertility was low relative to the level of development in all but one of the stalling countries.

Kin influence on female reproductive behavior: the evidence from reconstitution of the Bejsce parish registers, 18th to 20th centuries, Poland

The phenomenon of kin-oriented help, according to inclusive fitness theory, should be of crucial importance with respect to the process of reproduction. This is due to the fact that the devoted time and resources might indirectly contribute to the reproductive performance of a donor. This study aimed at analyzing the kin effects on fertility in order to check whether help received from kinsmen enhance a recipient's reproduction in terms of parity transition risk, completed fertility, and the number of survivors. The data came from reconstitution of church registers from Bejsce parish, Poland. To estimate the kin effect, regression models for count outcomes and techniques of multilevel event history analysis were applied. The analyses have shown that completed fertility and parity-specific transition risks are strongly influenced by various kin groups. Moreover, a multilevel hazard model revealed differences in the patterns of the kin influence among controlled fertility than among natural fertility birth cohorts. Female reproductive outcome is influenced mainly by the presence of siblings and postreproductive helpers (grandparents). However, there is a negative impact of so-called helpers-at-the-nest (older children in the household) on parity transition risks.

Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil

Using microdata from the Brazilian demographic censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1991, aggregated into 518 consistently defined spatial units called microregions, we estimated fertility and mortality and constructed indicators of development and living conditions in the rural and urban areas of the microregions in each census. We then estimated cross-sectional and fixed-effects models to answer questions about the degree to which changes in these indicators are associated with changes in fertility and whether the relationship between fertility and development shifts through time. We found strong and consistent relationships between the decline in fertility and measurable changes in social and economic circumstances.

Fertility transition in a rural, Catholic population: Bavaria, 1880-1910

The decline of human fertility that occurred in Europe and North America in the nineteenth century, and elsewhere in the twentieth, remains a topic of debate largely because there is no accepted explanation for the event. This paper uses district-level data from Bavaria to study the correlates of the decline of fertility in that German kingdom in the nineteenth century. Bavaria's fertility transition was later and less dramatic than in other parts of Germany. Our results for Bavaria indicate that the European Fertility Project was right about the role of religion and secularization, but missed an important role for the economic and structural effects stressed by economic historians.

The demographic transition then and now: processes, perspectives, and analyses

Fifty years have passed since the post-World War II development of demography as an academic field. During this time, one of the central focuses of research has been the study of demographic and fertility transitions. The authors review a selection of research developments and analytic issues that have appeared in the literature. After presenting, in roughly chronological order, the general development of this research work, they raise questions concerning theory and methodology. In doing so, they argue that some research directions have been overemphasized to the neglect of others.

Fertility Decline in Prussia: Estimating Influences on Supply, Demand, and Degree of Control

Change in marital fertility in 407 Prussian Kreise from 1875 to 1910 is modeled to depend on the gap between the number of desired surviving births, N*, divided by child survival, s, and the number that would be born under natural marital fertility, M, given the age at marriage. Some fraction of this gap is averted, depending on the propensity to avert unwanted births, D. Although none of these components is observed directly, we can estimate each indirectly under strong assumptions. Decline in N*/s accounts for twice as much of the decline in fertility as does an increase in D. Natural fertility rose during the period. Unwanted births increased slightly, despite a tripling of births averted. The most important causes of decline in N* were increases in female labor supply, real income, and health workers. A rising level of education is the most important cause of increasing propensity to avert births. Demand-side changes were important causes of the transition, but changes in readiness to contracept also were important, as was the interaction of the two.