Demography and social science

An Ethics and Social-Justice Approach to Collecting and Using Demographic Data for Psychological Researchers

The collection and use of demographic data in psychological sciences has the potential to aid in transforming inequities brought about by unjust social conditions toward equity. However, many current methods surrounding demographic data do not achieve this goal. Some methods function to reduce, but not eliminate, inequities, whereas others may perpetuate harmful stereotypes, invalidate minoritized identities, and exclude key groups from research participation or access to disseminated findings. In this article, we aim to (a) review key ethical and social-justice dilemmas inherent to working with demographic data in psychological research and (b) introduce a framework positioned in ethics and social justice to help psychologists and researchers in social-science fields make thoughtful decisions about the collection and use of demographic data. Although demographic data methods vary across subdisciplines and research topics, we assert that these core issues-and solutions-are relevant to all research within the psychological sciences, including basic and applied research. Our overarching aim is to support key stakeholders in psychology (e.g., researchers, funding agencies, journal editors, peer reviewers) in making ethical and socially-just decisions about the collection, analysis, reporting, interpretation, and dissemination of demographic data.

The evolution of demographic methods

Demographic methods have been evolving ever since the birth of demography in response to changes in the field's research contents and theoretical orientations. An early core mission of finding regularities underlying macro-level population phenomena and a later interest in explaining population changes inductively facilitated the development of formal demographic techniques. A more radical methodological shift occurred after the 1960s, with the increasing availability of micro-level survey data and a shift of theoretical focus toward causal mechanisms, leading to the widespread adoption of regression-based models and methods from other social science disciplines. The future development of demographic methods will likely continue to incorporate new methods first developed in other disciplines, including techniques for analyzing unstructured "big" data, but formal demographic techniques will still play a role in population forecasting, measurements improvements, and correction of faulty data, providing foundational knowledge for other social science disciplines.

Demography and the rise, apparent fall, and resurgence of eugenics

Demography was heavily involved in the eugenics movement of the early twentieth century but, along with most other social science disciplines, largely rejected eugenic thinking in the decades after the Second World War. Eugenic ideology never entirely deserted academia, however, and in the twenty-first century, it is re-emerging into mainstream academic discussion. This paper aims, first, to provide a reminder of demography's early links with eugenics and, second, to raise awareness of this academic resurgence of eugenic ideology. The final aim of the paper is to recommend ways to counter this resurgence: these include more active discussion of demography's eugenic past, especially when training students; greater emphasis on critical approaches in demography; and greater engagement of demographers (and other social scientists) with biologists and geneticists, in order to ensure that research which combines the biological and social sciences is rigorous.

Demographic perspectives in research on global environmental change

The human population is at the centre of research on global environmental change. On the one hand, population dynamics influence the environment and the global climate system through consumption-based carbon emissions. On the other hand, the health and well-being of the population are already being affected by climate change. A knowledge of population dynamics and population heterogeneity is thus fundamental to improving our understanding of how population size, composition, and distribution influence global environmental change and how these changes affect population subgroups differentially by demographic characteristics and spatial distribution. The increasing relevance of demographic research on the topic, coupled with availability of theoretical concepts and advancement in data and computing facilities, has contributed to growing engagement of demographers in this field. In the past 25 years, demographic research has enriched climate change research-with the key contribution being in moving beyond the narrow view that population matters only in terms of population size-by putting a greater emphasis on population composition and distribution, through presenting both empirical evidence and advanced population forecasting to account for demographic and spatial heterogeneity. What remains missing in the literature is research that investigates how global environmental change affects current and future demographic processes and, consequently, population trends. If global environmental change does influence fertility, mortality, and migration, then population estimates and forecasts need to adjust for climate feedback in population projections. Indisputably, this is the area of new research that directly requires expertise in population science and contribution from demographers.

Demography's theory and approach: (How) has the view from the margins changed?

Around the time that Population Studies celebrated its 50th anniversary in 1996, Susan Greenhalgh published 'An intellectual, institutional, and political history of twentieth-century demography'. Her contribution described a discipline that, when viewed from its margins, prompted scholars in other disciplines to ask the following questions: 'Why is the field still wedded to many of the assumptions of mid-century modernization theory and why are there no critical … perspectives in the discipline?' (Greenhalgh 1996, p. 27). Those questions still arise today. Similarly, Greenhalgh's observation that 'neither the global political economies of the 1970s, nor the postmodernisms and postcolonialities of the 1980s and 1990s, nor the feminisms of any decade have had much perceptible impact on the field' (pp. 27-8), remains a fairly accurate depiction of research published in Population Studies and other demography journals. In this contribution, focusing predominantly on feminist research and insights, I discuss how little has changed since 1996 and explain why the continued lack of engagement concerns me. Demographers still often fail to appreciate the impossibility of atheoretical 'just descriptive' research. Our methods carry assumptions and so rely on (often) implicit theoretical frameworks. Not making frameworks explicit does not mean they do not exert an important influence. I end by proposing that the training of research students should be part of a strategy to effect change.

Moving towards the centre or the exit? Migration in population studies and in Population Studies 1996-2021

This paper examines the position of migration in population studies, focusing on the period 1996-2021. It considers the reasons why migration remains problematic for demographers, but also how approaches to migration have changed over the last 25 years. While it has arguably become more important to both demography and population studies because of the transition to low fertility and mortality, migration has metamorphosed into a complex field in its own right, almost independently from changes in demography. Both internal and international migration form the subject of this examination and four main themes are pursued: data and measurement; theories and approaches; migration and development; and migration and political demography. The papers published in the journal Population Studies are used to provide a mirror through which to view these changes over the last 25 years. This paper concludes by looking at likely future directions in migration studies, demography, and population studies.

Theory and explanation in demography: The case of low fertility in Europe

In the 50th anniversary edition of Population Studies, John Hobcraft commented that demographers spend too little time trying to explain the phenomena they measure and describe. A quarter of a century on, this paper looks at the state of theory and explanation in contemporary demography. I ask how demographers have approached the task of explanation since Hobcraft's comment, grounding the discussion in the mainstream literature on low fertility in Europe. Using selected examples, I critically review macro- and micro-level approaches to explanation, highlighting some of the philosophical problems that each encounters. I argue that different conceptions of what demography is, and the explanatory language fertility researchers use, lead to differences in explanatory strategies that are rarely explicitly recognized. I also consider how critical theories challenge demographers to think in new ways. Despite the increasing attention paid to theory and explanation, I conclude that more engagement with the philosophy of social sciences is needed before fertility researchers can legitimately claim their studies do as much to explain and understand as to quantify and describe.

Mind the gap: The health advantages that accompany parental marriage vary by maternal nativity

Using data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), we examine whether and how the health benefits of having two biological parents in a continuous marital relationship vary by maternal nativity and ethnicity, comparing UK-born White mothers with: (1) White mothers born in wealthy countries; (2) ethnic minority mothers from South Asia; and (3) ethnic minority mothers born in Africa. Making novel use of classification and regression tree (CART) methods, we examine whether marital status is a uniform marker of economic advantage or better health-related behaviours across the four maternal nativity and ethnic groups. The findings, which indicate that the health-related advantages associated with parental marriage are not uniform across the four nativity and ethnic groups, have implications for future research on family gaps in well-being and the socio-economic determinants of health.

Gender Dimensions of Support for Elderly in Vietnam

Although women and the elderly are assumed to be disadvantaged in much of the world, systematic empirical studies of gender differences in well-being among the elderly are rare. This article examines gender differences in elderly support and socio-economic well-being in Vietnam using census and survey data. Sources of support examined include work, nonfamilial support, and especially familial support including living arrangements. The authors consider the gender of the support recipient and provider. Substantial regional differences in the patriarchal/patrilineal family system, manifested in the wide regional variation in coresidence with married sons rather than daughters, make Vietnam a particularly interesting context for the study. The receipt of intergenerational transfers shows little variation across gender once the mediating effect of marital status differences is controlled. Gender differences in economic well-being, as measured by household wealth and self-perceptions of economic satisfaction, are modest, especially when marital status and age are controlled.

Mapping interdisciplinarity in demography: a journal network analysis

Despite increasing interest in studying the intellectual structures of interdisciplinary fields, mapping interdisciplinarity in demography remains an unexplored topic. This paper visualizes such a demographic intellectual structure through a citation analysis of 65 demography-related journals between 2000 and 2003. The journal citation data were collected from Journal Citation Reports. The subject relatedness of the journals was revealed through a cluster analysis, a network diagram, and an analysis of citation percentages between demography journals and all selected journals. Twelve clusters of subject specialties are identified. The network diagram largely matches the result of the cluster analysis. The results reveal closer connections between the demography journals and neighboring social sciences journals than with public health and medical science journals. Correlations between the citation matrices suggest stable demographic citation patterns over time.

Health in a 'post-transition' Australia: adding years to life or life to years?

OBJECTIVE

To explore the likely impact of future trajectories of morbidity and mortality in Australia.

METHODS

Estimates of mortality and morbidity were obtained from a previous assessment of Australia's health from 1993 to 2003, including projections to 2023. Outcomes of interest were the difference between life expectancy (LE0) and health-adjusted life expectancy (i.e. absolute lost health expectancy (ALHE0)), ALHE0 as a proportion of LE0 and the partitioning of changes in ALHE0 into additive contributions from changes in age- and cause-specific mortality and morbidity.

RESULTS

Actual and projected trajectories of mortality and morbidity resulted in an expansion of ALHE0 of 1.22 years between 1993 and 2023, which was equivalent to a relative expansion of 0.7% in morbidity over the life course. Most (93.8%) of this expansion was accounted for by cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer; of these, the only unfavourable trend of any note was increasing morbidity from diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Time spent with morbidity will most likely increase in terms of numbers of years lived and as a proportion of the average life span. This conclusion is based on the expectation that gains in LE0 will continue to exceed gains in ALHE0, and has important implications for public policy. WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC? Although the aging of Australia's population as a result of declining birth and death rates is well understood, its relationship with levels of morbidity is not always fully appreciated. This is most noticeable in the policy discourse on primary prevention, in which such activities are sometimes portrayed as having unrealised potential with respect to alleviating growth in health service demand. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD? This paper sheds new light on these relationships by exploring the likely impact of future trajectories of both morbidity and mortality within an additive partitioning framework. The results suggest a modest expansion of morbidity over the life course, most of which is accounted for by only three causes. In two of these (cardiovascular disease and cancer), the underlying trends in both mortality and morbidity have been favourable for some time due, at least in part, to success in primary prevention. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS? Although there may be good arguments in favour of a greater focus on primary prevention as currently practiced, reducing overall demand for health services is unlikely to be one of them. To make such an argument valid, policy makers should consider shifting their attention to the effectiveness of primary prevention as it relates to causes other than cardiovascular disease and cancer, particularly those with a predominantly non-fatal impact, such as diabetes and degenerative diseases of old age.

Childbearing desires of childless men and women: when are goals adjusted?

This paper examines the concept of desired future fertility. Childbearing desires are often conceptualized in the literature as representing an individual's ideal future fertility where there are no constraints or obstacles to achieve the desired outcome. As such, childbearing desires, unlike fertility intentions, are thought to be relatively unaffected by changing life circumstances. Using a theoretically driven model incorporating goal adjustment, we test whether desires of childless men and women do in fact change over time. Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey (2001-2010) we specifically investigate whether changing life circumstances do effect a change in childbearing desires. We find that age is strongly related to adjusting childbearing desires, as is relationship formation. Desires are however, not greatly influenced by short-term shocks such as an episode of poor health or unemployment, although these events have different effects for women and for men. Overall, the findings are consistent with psychological theories of goal adjustment, that is, individuals will revise their desires for having children if they perceive that their desires are not likely to be fulfilled.

Seeing like a research project: producing "high-quality data" in AIDS research in Malawi

Numbers are the primary way that we know about AIDS in Africa, yet their power and utility often obscure the conditions of their production. I show that quantification is very much a sociocultural process by focusing on everyday realities of making AIDS-related numbers in Malawi. "Seeing like a research project" implies systematically transforming social reality into data points and managing uncertainties inherent in numbers. Drawing on 20 months of participant observation with survey research projects (2005, 2007-2008), I demonstrate how standards govern data collection to protect and reproduce demographers' shared expectations of "high-quality data." Data are expected to be "clean," accurate and precise, data collection efficient and timely, and data collected from sufficiently large, pure, and representative samples. I employ ethnographic analysis to show that each of these expectations not only guides survey research fieldwork but also produces categories, identities, and practices that reinforce and challenge these standardizing values.

Confronting the stigma of eugenics: genetics, demography and the problems of population

Building upon the work of Thomas Gieryn and Erving Goffman, this paper will explore how the concepts of stigma and boundary work can be usefully applied to history of population science. Having been closely aligned to eugenics in the early 20th century, from the 1930s both demographers and geneticists began to establish a boundary between their own disciplines and eugenic ideology. The eugenics movement responded to this process of stigmatization. Through strategies defined by Goffman as 'disclosure' and 'concealment', stigma was managed, and a limited space for eugenics was retained in science and policy. Yet by the 1960s, a revitalized eugenics movement was bringing leading social and biological scientists together through the study of the genetic demography of characteristics such as intelligence. The success of this programme of 'stigma transformation' resulted from its ability to allow geneticists and demographers to conceive of eugenic improvement in ways that seemed consistent with the ideals of individuality, diversity and liberty. In doing so, it provided them with an alternative, and a challenge, to more radical and controversial programmes to realize an optimal genotype and population. The processes of stigma attribution and management are, however, ongoing, and since the rise of the nature-nurture controversy in the 1970s, the use of eugenics as a 'stigma symbol' has prevailed.

The Concept of Population Health Within the Nursing Profession

Population health is a concept that has been developed over several centuries by many disciplines. Over time various aspects of the concept have dominated as issues related to behaviors and beliefs surrounding health practices have emerged. This has created a cadre of terms that are often used interchangeably but have different meanings among various disciplines. This paper will review the concept of population health within the discipline of nursing and discuss its relationship with public health, community health, and population-focused care.

Integrating demographic and epidemiological approaches to research on HIV/AIDS: the proximate-determinants framework

This article presents a conceptual framework for the study of the distribution and determinants of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in populations, by combining demographic and epidemiological approaches. The proximate-determinants framework has been applied extensively in the study of fertility and child survival in developing countries. Key to the framework is the identification of a set of variables, called "proximate determinants," that can be influenced by changes in contextual variables or by interventions and that have a direct effect on biological mechanisms to influence health outcomes. In HIV research, the biological mechanisms are the components that determine the reproductive rate of infection. The proximate-determinants framework can be used in study design, in the analysis and interpretation of risk factors or intervention studies that include both biological and behavioral data, and in ecological studies.

The McKeown thesis: a historical controversy and its enduring influence

The historical analyses of Thomas McKeown attributed the modern rise in the world population from the 1700s to the present to broad economic and social changes rather than to targeted public health or medical interventions. His work generated considerable controversy in the 1970s and 1980s, and it continues to stimulate support, criticism, and commentary to the present day, in spite of his conclusions' having been largely discredited by subsequent research. The ongoing resonance of his work is due primarily to the importance of the question that underlay it: Are public health ends better served by targeted interventions or by broad-based efforts to redistribute the social, political, and economic resources that determine the health of populations?

An evolutionary ecological perspective on demographic transitions: modeling multiple currencies

Life history theory postulates tradeoffs of current versus future reproduction; today women face evolutionarily novel versions of these tradeoffs. Optimal age at first birth is the result of tradeoffs in fertility and mortality; ceteris paribus, early reproduction is advantageous. Yet modern women in developed nations experience relatively late first births; they appear to be trading off socioeconomic status and the paths to raised SES, education and work, against early fertility. Here, [1] using delineating parameter values drawn from data in the literature, we model these tradeoffs to determine how much socioeconomic advantage will compensate for delayed first births and lower lifetime fertility; and [2] we examine the effects of work and education on women's lifetime and age-specific fertility using data from seven cohorts in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).

Success and future of demography: the role of data and methods

Demography typifies paradigmatic success; that is, cumulative scientific work that has provided useful perspectives on a set of important questions. This success can be traced partly to the core subject matter of demography, which is relatively conducive to quantitative, observational science. The development of demography was further aided by extrinsic factors, such as the import of its data for government administration, for business purposes, and the import of demographic questions for social problems and public policy. These observations make suspect any simple projection of demography's success into the future or the transport of its experience to other disciplines.

Demographers and the study of mortality: scope, perspectives, and theory

Demographers have for a long time adopted an empirical approach to the study of the levels and trends of mortality, fertility, and population size. They depend for their analyses on data, usually collected until recent times by government and often for other purposes. Modern demography had its origins in Britain in the second half of the seventeenth century. The major focus of demographers has usually been on mortality, although fertility studies predominated in the 1960s and 1970s. Mortality decline in the West only became certain in the late nineteenth century. Until the 1960s the fastest mortality declines were for the young, but an unheralded mortality decline among the old thereafter became important. The world, especially in economically advanced countries, is faced with an increasingly high proportion of old people, explained largely, not by mortality decline, but by fertility decline. Explanations for the mortality transition place different emphases on the role of modern medicine, better nutrition, and behavioral and social change, particularly rising levels of education. Even among the old, at least until 85 years of age, there are wide differentials in mortality by educational level. Analysts have divided the mortality transition into stages: (1) high, pretransitional mortality, (2) early transitional mortality with the decline explained by the conquest of infectious disease, and (3) late transitional mortality largely attributable to degenerative disease. Some have now added stage (4), the reduction or delay in death from degenerative causes. Attempts have been made to effect the convergence of demographic and epidemiological approaches to the analysis of mortality, and they have been more successful in the case of medical demographic than in social demographic approaches.