Review: a critical evaluation of arguments opposing male circumcision for HIV prevention in developed countries

Neonatal Male Circumcision: Clearly Beneficial for Public Health or an Ethical Dilemma? A Systematic Review

Contrasting ethical and legal arguments have been made concerning neonatal male circumcision (NMC) that merit the first systematic review on this topic. We performed PRISMA-compliant keyword searches of PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, LexisNexis, and other databases and identified 61 articles that met the inclusion criteria. In the bibliographies of these articles, we identified 58 more relevant articles and 28 internet items. We found high-quality evidence that NMC is a low-risk procedure that provides immediate and lifetime medical and health benefits and only rarely leads to later adverse effects on sexual function or pleasure. Given this evidence, we conclude that discouraging or denying NMC is unethical from the perspective of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, which emphasizes the right to health. Further, case law supports the legality of NMC. We found, conversely, that the ethical arguments against NMC rely on distortions of the medical evidence. Thus, NMC, by experienced operators using available safety precautions, appears to be both legal and ethical. Consistent with this conclusion, all of the evidence-based pediatric policies that we reviewed describe NMC as low-risk and beneficial to public health. We calculated that a reduction in NMC in the United States from 80% to 10% would substantially increase the cases of adverse medical conditions. The present findings thus support the evidence-based NMC policy statements and are inconsistent with the non-evidence-based policies that discourage NMC. On balance, the arguments and evidence reviewed here indicate that NMC is a medically beneficial and ethical public health intervention early in life because it reduces suffering, deaths, cases, and costs of treating adverse medical conditions throughout the lifetimes of circumcised individuals.

Evidence-based circumcision policy for Australia

The aim was (1) to perform an up-to-date systematic review of the male circumcision (MC) literature and (2) to determine the number of adverse medical conditions prevented by early MC in Australia. Searches of PubMed using "circumcision" with 39 keywords and bibliography searches yielded 278 publications meeting our inclusion criteria. Early MC provides immediate and lifetime benefits, including protection against: urinary tract infections, phimosis, inflammatory skin conditions, inferior penile hygiene, candidiasis, various STIs, and penile and prostate cancer. In female partners MC reduces risk of STIs and cervical cancer. A risk-benefit analysis found benefits exceeded procedural risks, which are predominantly minor, by approximately 200 to 1. It was estimated that more than 1 in 2 uncircumcised males will experience an adverse foreskin-related medical condition over their lifetime. An increase in early MC in Australia to mid-1950s prevalence of 85% from the current level of 18.75% would avoid 77,000 cases of infections and other adverse medical conditions over the lifetime for each annual birth cohort. Survey data, physiological measurements, and the anatomical location of penile sensory receptors responsible for sexual sensation indicate that MC has no detrimental effect on sexual function, sensitivity or pleasure. US studies found that early infant MC is cost saving. Evidence-based reviews by the AAP and CDC support early MC as a desirable public health measure. Although MC can be performed at any age, early MC maximizes benefits and minimises procedural risks. Parents should routinely be provided with accurate, up-to-date evidence-based information in an unbiased manner early in a pregnancy so that they have time to weigh benefits and risks of early MC and make an informed decision should they have a son. Parental choice should be respected. A well-trained competent practitioner is essential and local anaesthesia should be routinely used. Third party coverage of costs is advocated.

Critical evaluation of arguments opposing male circumcision: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically evaluate evidence against male circumcision (MC).

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, EMBASE and Cochrane databases.

RESULTS

Database searches retrieved 297 publications for inclusion. Bibliographies of these yielded 101 more. After evaluation we found: Claims that MC carries high risk were contradicted by low frequency of adverse events that were virtually all minor and easily treated with complete resolution. Claims that MC causes psychological harm were contradicted by studies finding no such harm. Claims that MC impairs sexual function and pleasure were contradicted by high-quality studies finding no adverse effect. Claims disputing the medical benefits of MC were contradicted by a large body of high-quality evidence indicating protection against a wide range of infections, dermatological conditions, and genital cancers in males and the female sexual partners of men. Risk-benefit analyses reported that benefits exceed risks by 100-200 to 1. To maximize benefits and minimize risks, the evidence supported early infant MC rather than arguments that the procedure should be delayed until males are old enough to decide for themselves. Claims that MC of minors is unethical were contradicted by balanced evaluations of ethical issues supporting the rights of children to be provided with low-risk, high-benefit interventions such as MC for better health. Expert evaluations of case-law supported the legality of MC of minors. Other data demonstrated that early infant MC is cost-saving to health systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Arguments opposing MC are supported mostly by low-quality evidence and opinion, and are contradicted by strong scientific evidence.

Does Male Circumcision Reduce Women's Risk of Sexually Transmitted Infections, Cervical Cancer, and Associated Conditions?

Background: Male circumcision (MC) is proven to substantially reduce men's risk of a number of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We conducted a detailed systematic review of the scientific literature to determine the relationship between MC and risk of STIs and associated conditions in women. Methods: Database searches by "circumcision women" and "circumcision female" identified 68 relevant articles for inclusion. Examination of bibliographies of these yielded 14 further publications. Each was rated for quality using a conventional rating system. Results: Evaluation of the data from the studies retrieved showed that MC is associated with a reduced risk in women of being infected by oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes and of contracting cervical cancer. Data from randomized controlled trials and other studies has confirmed that partner MC reduces women's risk not only of oncogenic HPV, but as well Trichomonas vaginalis, bacterial vaginosis and possibly genital ulcer disease. For herpes simplex virus type 2, Chlamydia trachomatis, Treponema pallidum, human immunodeficiency virus and candidiasis, the evidence is mixed. Male partner MC did not reduce risk of gonorrhea, Mycoplasma genitalium, dysuria or vaginal discharge in women. Conclusion: MC reduces risk of oncogenic HPV genotypes, cervical cancer, T. vaginalis, bacterial vaginosis and possibly genital ulcer disease in women. The reduction in risk of these STIs and cervical cancer adds to the data supporting global efforts to deploy MC as a health-promoting and life-saving public health measure and supplements other STI prevention strategies.

Re-establishing safer medical-circumcision-integrated initiation ceremonies for HIV prevention in a rural setting in Papua New Guinea. A multi-method acceptability study

Background

Efforts to stem the spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in Papua New Guinea (PNG) are hampered by multiple interrelated factors including limited health services, extreme diversities in culture and language and highly prevalent gender inequity, domestic violence and poverty. In the rural district of Yangoru-Saussia, a revival of previously ceased male initiation ceremonies (MICs) is being considered for a comprehensive approach to HIV prevention. In this study, we explore the local acceptability of this undertaking including replacing traditional penile cutting practices with medical male circumcision (MMC).

Methods

A multi-method study comprising three phases. Phase one, focus group discussions with male elders to explore locally appropriate approaches to HIV prevention; Phase two, interviews and a cross-sectional survey with community men and women to assess views on MICs that include MMC for HIV prevention; Phase three, interviews with cultural leaders and a cross sectional survey to assess the acceptability of replacing traditional penile bleeding with MMC.

Results

Cultural leaders expressed that re-establishing MICs was locally appropriate for HIV prevention given the focus on character building and cultural preservation. Most surveyed participants (81.5%) supported re-establishing MICs and 92.2% supported adapting MICs with MMC. Changes to penile bleeding emerged as a contentious and contested issue given its cultural significance in symbolizing initiates’ transition from childhood to adulthood. Participants were concerned about potential clash with modern education, introduced religious beliefs and limited government support in leadership and funding.

Conclusions

Most people in this study in Yangoru-Saussia support re-establishing MICs and replacing traditional penile bleeding with MMC. This culturally-sensitive alignment of MMC (and HIV prevention) with revived MICs responds to a national health priority in PNG and acts as an example of providing culturally-sensitive male circumcision for HIV prevention recommended by WHO/UNAIDS. However, the implementation of this undertaking will require considerable effort, especially when modern pursuits in education and religion must be factored and when there is expectation for local authorities to lead and provide funding.

Penile coital injuries in men decline after circumcision: Results from a prospective study of recently circumcised and uncircumcised men in western Kenya

Background

Penile coital injuries are one of the suggested mechanisms behind the increased risk of HIV among uncircumcised men. We evaluated the prevalence and correlates of self-reported penile coital injuries in a longitudinal community-based cohort of young (18–24 years old), newly circumcised and uncircumcised men in Western Kenya.

Methods

Self-reported penile coital injuries were assessed at baseline, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months of follow-up, and were defined as scratches, cuts or abrasions during sex, penile soreness during sex, and skin of the penis bleeding during sex. Associations between penile coital injuries, circumcision, sexual satisfaction, and other covariates were estimated with mixed effect models.

Results

Between November 2008 and April 2010 3,186 participants were enrolled (1,588 into circumcision group and 1,598 as age-matched controls). Among 2,106 (66%) participants sexually active at baseline, 53% reported any penile injury, including 44% scratches, cuts or abrasions; 32% penile pain/soreness; and 22% penile bleeding. In multivariable modeling, risk was lower for circumcised men than uncircumcised men for scratches, cuts and abrasions (aOR = 0.39; 95% CI 0.34–0.44); penile pain/soreness (aOR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.51–0.65), penile bleeding (aOR = 0.53; 95% CI 0.46–0.62), and any penile coital injuries (aOR = 0.47; 95%CI 0.42–0.53). Other significant risk factors included increasing age, history of STIs and genital sores, and multiple sex partners, while condom use was protective. Coital injuries were significantly associated with lower levels of sexual satisfaction in longitudinal analyses (scratches, cuts or abrasions: aOR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76–0.98; penile pain/soreness: aOR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.72–0.93; and penile bleeding: aOR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.55–0.76).

Conclusions

Self-reported penile coital injuries were common and decreased significantly following circumcision. Improving sexual experience through the removal of a potential source of sexual discomfort may resonate with many men targeted for circumcision services. The role of penile coital injuries in sexual satisfaction, HIV, HSV-2, and as a motivator for seeking circumcision services should be explored further.

Early infant male circumcision: Systematic review, risk-benefit analysis, and progress in policy

AIM

To determine whether recent evidence-based United States policies on male circumcision (MC) apply to comparable Anglophone countries, Australia and New Zealand.

METHODS

Articles in 2005 through 2015 were retrieved from PubMed using the keyword "circumcision" together with 36 relevant subtopics. A further PubMed search was performed for articles published in 2016. Searches of the EMBASE and Cochrane databases did not yield additional citable articles. Articles were assessed for quality and those rated 2+ and above according to the Scottish Intercollegiate Grading System were studied further. The most relevant and representative of the topic were included. Bibliographies were examined to retrieve further key references. Randomized controlled trials, recent high quality systematic reviews or meta-analyses (level 1++ or 1+ evidence) were prioritized for inclusion. A risk-benefit analysis of articles rated for quality was performed. For efficiency and reliability, recent randomized controlled trials, meta-analyses, high quality systematic reviews and large well-designed studies were used if available. Internet searches were conducted for other relevant information, including policies and Australian data on claims under Medicare for MC.

RESULTS

Evidence-based policy statements by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) support infant and later age male circumcision (MC) as a desirable public health measure. Our systematic review of relevant literature over the past decade yielded 140 journal articles that met our inclusion criteria. Together, these showed that early infant MC confers immediate and lifelong benefits by protecting against urinary tract infections having potential adverse long-term renal effects, phimosis that causes difficult and painful erections and "ballooning" during urination, inflammatory skin conditions, inferior penile hygiene, candidiasis, various sexually transmissible infections in both sexes, genital ulcers, and penile, prostate and cervical cancer. Our risk-benefit analysis showed that benefits exceeded procedural risks, which are predominantly minor, by up to 200 to 1. We estimated that more than 1 in 2 uncircumcised males will experience an adverse foreskin-related medical condition over their lifetime. Wide-ranging evidence from surveys, physiological measurements, and the anatomical location of penile sensory receptors responsible for sexual sensation strongly and consistently suggested that MC has no detrimental effect on sexual function, sensitivity or pleasure. United States studies showed that early infant MC is cost saving. The evidence supporting early infant MC has further strengthened since the positive AAP and CDC reviews.

CONCLUSION

Affirmative MC policies are needed in Australia and New Zealand. Routine provision of accurate, unbiased education, and access in public hospitals, will maximize health and financial benefits.

Critical evaluation of unscientific arguments disparaging affirmative infant male circumcision policy

We evaluate recent claims opposing infant male circumcision, a procedure now supported by the evidence-based policy of the American Academy of Pediatrics. We find those criticisms depend on speculative claims about the foreskin and obfuscation of the strong scientific evidence supporting pediatric policy development. An argument that circumcision should be delayed to allow a boy to make up his own mind as an adult fails to appreciate the psychological, scheduling and financial burdens later circumcision entails, so reducing the likelihood that it will occur. In contrast, early infant circumcision is convenient, safer, quicker, lower risk, healing is faster, cosmetic outcome is routinely good and the lifetime benefits accrue immediately. Benefits include reduction in urinary tract infections, inflammatory skin conditions, foreskin problems, and, when older, substantial protection against sexually transmitted infections and genital cancers in the male and his female sexual partners. Some authorities regard the failure to offer parents early infant circumcision as unethical, just as it would be unethical to fail to encourage the vaccination of children. In conclusion, the criticisms of evidence-based infant male circumcision policy are seriously flawed and should be dismissed as unhelpful to evidence-based development and implementation of pediatric policy intended to improve public health and individual wellbeing.

Circumcision Is Unethical and Unlawful

The foreskin is a complex structure that protects and moisturizes the head of the penis, and, being the most densely innervated and sensitive portion of the penis, is essential to providing the complete sexual response. Circumcision-the removal of this structure-is non-therapeutic, painful, irreversible surgery that also risks serious physical injury, psychological sequelae, and death. Men rarely volunteer for it, and increasingly circumcised men are expressing their resentment about it.Circumcision is usually performed for religious, cultural and personal reasons. Early claims about its medical benefits have been proven false. The American Academy of Pediatrics and the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control have made many scientifically untenable claims promoting circumcision that run counter to the consensus of Western medical organizations.Circumcision violates the cardinal principles of medical ethics, to respect autonomy (self-determination), to do good, to do no harm, and to be just. Without a clear medical indication, circumcision must be deferred until the child can provide his own fully informed consent.In 2012, a German court held that circumcision constitutes criminal assault. Under existing United States law and international human rights declarations as well, circumcision already violates boys› absolute rights to equal protection, bodily integrity, autonomy, and freedom to choose their own religion. A physician has a legal duty to protect children from unnecessary interventions. Physicians who obtain parental permission through spurious claims or omissions, or rely on the American Academy of Pediatrics' position, also risk liability for misleading parents about circumcision.

Circumcision is a primary preventive against HIV infection: Critique of a contrary meta-regression analysis by Van Howe

A meta-analysis by Van Howe of 109 populations confirms the well-known association of male circumcision (MC) with reduced HIV prevalence. He then performed meta-regression adjusting for location, risk and MC prevalence. When one or two of these adjustments in combination were applied MC appeared protective, but when all three were introduced the association remained significant in high-risk populations, but not in general populations within Africa with a hypothetical MC prevalence of <25% or elsewhere with hypothetical MC prevalence of <75%. However, many MC prevalence values given differed from those reported in references cited (including all US studies). This and other problems invalidate his adjustments for MC prevalence, undermining most of his meta-regression results. Meta-regression is a highly sophisticated statistical tool and is prone to error if not applied correctly. The study contained a high risk of bias arising from confounding. We also question his use of crude, rather than adjusted, odds ratios and his inclusion of unpublished data, so precluding replication by others. Flawed statistics, opaque presentation of results and inclusion of previously repudiated arguments downplaying a role for MC in HIV prevention programmes should lead readers to be sceptical of the findings and conclusions of Van Howe's study.

Male circumcision to prevent syphilis in 1855 and HIV in 1986 is supported by the accumulated scientific evidence to 2015: Response to Darby

An article by Darby disparaging male circumcision (MC) for syphilis prevention in Victorian times (1837-1901) and voluntary medical MC programs for HIV prevention in recent times ignores contemporary scientific evidence. It is one-sided and cites outlier studies as well as claims by MC opponents that support the author's thesis, but ignores high quality randomised controlled trials and meta-analyses. While we agree with Darby that risky behaviours contribute to syphilis and HIV epidemics, there is now compelling evidence that MC helps reduce both syphilis and HIV infections. Although some motivations for MC in Victorian times were misguided, others, such as protection against syphilis, penile cancer, phimosis, balanitis and poor hygiene have stood the test of time. In the absence of a cure or effective prophylactic vaccine for HIV, MC should help lower heterosexually acquired HIV, especially when coupled with other interventions such as condoms and behaviour. This should save lives, as well as reducing costs and suffering. In contrast to Darby, our evaluation of the evidence leads us to conclude that MC would likely have helped reduce syphilis in Victorian times and, in the current era, will help lower both syphilis and HIV, so improving global public health.

Voluntary medical male circumcision: A necessary surgical intervention in curbing HIV/AIDS

An Israeli surgeon and a Global Health Specialist working in Africa address some of the persistent myths surrounding this practice.

Knowledge, Attitudes, Practices and Beliefs about Medical Male Circumcision (MMC) among a Sample of Health Care Providers in Haiti

Background

Haiti has the highest number of people living with HIV infection in the Caribbean/Latin America region. Medical male circumcision (MMC) has been recommended to help prevent the spread of HIV. We sought to assess knowledge, attitudes, practices and beliefs about MMC among a sample of health care providers in Haiti.

Methods

A convenience sample of 153 health care providers at the GHESKIO Centers in Haiti responded to an exploratory survey that collected information on several topics relevant to health providers about MMC. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the responses and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to determine opinions of health care providers about the best age to perform MMC on males. Bayesian network analysis and sensitivity analysis were done to identify the minimum level of change required to increase the acceptability of performing MMC at age less than 1 year.

Results

The sample consisted of medical doctors (31.0%), nurses (49.0%), and other health care professionals (20.0%). Approximately 76% showed willingness to offer MMC services if they received training. Seventy-six percent believed that their male patients would accept circumcision, and 59% believed infancy was the best age for MMC. More than 90% of participants said that MMC would reduce STIs. Physicians and nurses who were willing to offer MMC if provided with adequate training were 2.5 (1.15–5.71) times as likely to choose the best age to perform MMC as less than one year. Finally, if the joint probability of choosing “the best age to perform MMC” as one year or older and having the mistaken belief that "MMC prevents HIV entirely" is reduced by 63% then the probability of finding that performing MMC at less than one year acceptable to health care providers is increased by 35%.

Conclusion

Participants demonstrated high levels of knowledge and positive attitudes towards MMC. Although this study suggests that circumcision is acceptable among certain health providers in Haiti, studies with larger and more representative samples are needed to confirm this finding.

Male circumcision for protection against HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: the evidence in favour justifies the implementation now in progress

This article responds to a recent 'controversy study' in Global Public Health by de Camargo et al. directed at three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of male circumcision (MC) for HIV prevention. These trials were conducted in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and published in 2005 and 2007. The RCTs confirmed observational data that had accumulated over the preceding two decades showing that MC reduces by 60% the risk of HIV infection in heterosexual men. Based on the RCT results, MC was adopted by global and national HIV policy-makers as an additional intervention for HIV prevention. Voluntary medical MC (VMMC) is now being implemented in 14 SSA countries. Thus referring to MC for HIV prevention as 'debate' and viewing MC through a lens of controversy seems mistaken. In their criticism, de Camargo et al. misrepresent and misinterpret current science supporting MC for HIV prevention, omit previous denunciations of arguments similar to theirs, and ignore evidence from ongoing scientific research. Here we point out the flaws in three areas de Camargo et al. find contentious. In doing so, we direct readers to growing evidence of MC as an efficacious, safe, acceptable, relatively low-cost one-off biomedical intervention for HIV prevention.

Veracity and rhetoric in paediatric medicine: a critique of Svoboda and Van Howe's response to the AAP policy on infant male circumcision

In a recent issue of the Journal of Medical Ethics,Svoboda and Van Howe commented on the 2012 changein the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) policy on newborn male circumcision, in which the AAP stated that benefits of the procedure outweigh the risks. Svoboda and Van Howe disagree with the AAP conclusions. We show here that their arguments against male circumcision are based on a poor understanding of epidemiology,erroneous interpretation of the evidence, selective citation of the literature, statistical manipulation of data, and circular reasoning. In reality, the scientific evidence indicates that male circumcision, especially when performed in the newborn period, is an ethically and medically sound low-risk preventive health procedure conferring a lifetime of benefits to health and well-being.Policies in support of parent-approved elective newborn circumcision should be embraced by the medical,scientific and wider communities.

Does Male Circumcision Protect against Sexually Transmitted Infections? Arguments and Meta-Analyses to the Contrary Fail to Withstand Scrutiny

We critically evaluate a recent article by Van Howe involving 12 meta-analyses that concludes, contrary to current evidence, that male circumcision increases the risk of various common sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Our detailed scrutiny reveals that these meta-analyses (1) failed to include results of all relevant studies, especially data from randomized controlled trials, (2) introduced bias through use of inappropriate control groups, (3) altered original data, in the case of human papillomavirus (HPV), by questionable adjustments for "sampling bias," (4) failed to control for confounders through use of crude odds ratios, and (5) used unnecessarily complicated methods without adequate explanation, so impeding replication by others. Interventions that can reduce the prevalence of STIs are important to international health. Of major concern is the global epidemic of oncogenic types of HPV that contribute to the burden of genital cancers. Meta-analyses, when well conducted, can better inform public health policy and medical practice, but when seriously flawed can have detrimental consequences. Our critical evaluation leads us to reject the findings and conclusions of Van Howe on multiple grounds. Our timely analysis thus reaffirms the medical evidence supporting male circumcision as a desirable intervention for STI prevention.

Circumcision rates in the United States: rising or falling? What effect might the new affirmative pediatric policy statement have?

The objective of this review was to assess the trend in the US male circumcision rate and the impact that the affirmative 2012 American Academy of Pediatrics policy statement might have on neonatal circumcision practice. We searched PubMed for the term circumcision to retrieve relevant articles. This review was prompted by a recent report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that found a slight increase, from 79% to 81%, in the prevalence of circumcision in males aged 14 to 59 years during the past decade. There were racial and ethnic disparities, with prevalence rising to 91% in white, 76% in black, and 44% in Hispanic males. Because data on neonatal circumcision are equivocal, we undertook a critical analysis of hospital discharge data. After correction for underreporting, we found that the percentage had declined from 83% in the 1960s to 77% by 2010. A risk-benefit analysis of conditions that neonatal circumcision protects against revealed that benefits exceed risks by at least 100 to 1 and that over their lifetime, half of uncircumcised males will require treatment for a medical condition associated with retention of the foreskin. Other analyses show that neonatal male circumcision is cost-effective for disease prevention. The benefits of circumcision begin in the neonatal period by protection against infections that can damage the pediatric kidney. Given the substantial risk of adverse conditions and disease, some argue that failure to circumcise a baby boy may be unethical because it diminishes his right to good health. There is no long-term adverse effect of neonatal circumcision on sexual function or pleasure. The affirmative 2012 American Academy of Pediatrics policy supports parental education about, access to, and insurance and Medicaid coverage for elective infant circumcision. As with vaccination, circumcision of newborn boys should be part of public health policies. Campaigns should prioritize population subgroups with lower circumcision prevalence and a higher burden of diseases that can be ameliorated by circumcision.

Costs and effectiveness of neonatal male circumcision

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the expected change in the prevalence of male circumcision (MC)-reduced infections and resulting health care costs associated with continued decreases in MC rates. During the past 20 years, MC rates have declined from 79% to 55%, alongside reduced insurance coverage.

DESIGN

We used Markov-based Monte Carlo simulations to track men and women throughout their lifetimes as they experienced MC procedure-related events and MC-reduced infections and accumulated associated costs. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Birth cohort of men and women.

INTERVENTION

Decreased MC rates (10% reflects the MC rate in Europe, where insurance coverage is limited).

OUTCOMES MEASURED

Lifetime direct medical cost (2011 US$) and prevalence of MC-reduced infections.

RESULTS

Reducing the MC rate to 10% will increase lifetime health care costs by $407 per male and $43 per female. Net expenditure per annual birth cohort (including procedure and complication costs) is expected to increase by $505 million, reflecting an increase of $313 per forgone MC. Over 10 annual cohorts, net present value of additional costs would exceed $4.4 billion. Lifetime prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection among males is expected to increase by 12.2% (4843 cases), high- and low-risk human papillomavirus by 29.1% (57 124 cases), herpes simplex virus type 2 by 19.8% (124 767 cases), and infant urinary tract infections by 211.8% (26 876 cases). Among females, lifetime prevalence of bacterial vaginosis is expected to increase by 51.2% (538 865 cases), trichomoniasis by 51.2% (64 585 cases), high-risk human papillomavirus by 18.3% (33 148 cases), and low-risk human papillomavirus by 12.9% (25 837 cases). Increased prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection among males represents 78.9% of increased expenses.

CONCLUSION

Continued decreases in MC rates are associated with increased infection prevalence, thereby increasing medical expenditures for men and women.