Modeling inhalational tularemia: deliberate release and public health response

Using mixture density networks to emulate a stochastic within-host model of Francisella tularensis infection

For stochastic models with large numbers of states, analytical techniques are often impractical, and simulations time-consuming and computationally demanding. This limitation can hinder the practical implementation of such models. In this study, we demonstrate how neural networks can be used to develop emulators for two outputs of a stochastic within-host model of Francisella tularensis infection: the dose-dependent probability of illness and the incubation period. Once the emulators are constructed, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling methods to parameterize the within-host model using records of human infection. This inference is only possible through the use of a mixture density network to emulate the incubation period, providing accurate approximations of the corresponding probability distribution. Notably, these estimates improve upon previous approaches that relied on bacterial counts from the lungs of macaques. Our findings reveal a 50% infectious dose of approximately 10 colony-forming units and we estimate that the incubation period can last for up to 11 days following low dose exposure.

Beating the Bio-Terror Threat with Rapid Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing

A bioterror event using an infectious bacterium may lead to catastrophic outcomes involving morbidity and mortality as well as social and psychological stress. Moreover, a bioterror event using an antibiotic resistance engineered bacterial agent may raise additional concerns. Thus, preparedness is essential to preclude and control the dissemination of the bacterial agent as well as to appropriately and promptly treat potentially exposed individuals or patients. Rates of morbidity, death, and social anxiety can be drastically reduced if the rapid delivery of antimicrobial agents for post-exposure prophylaxis and treatment is initiated as soon as possible. Availability of rapid antibiotic susceptibility tests that may provide key recommendations to targeted antibiotic treatment is mandatory, yet, such tests are only at the development stage. In this review, we describe the recently published rapid antibiotic susceptibility tests implemented on bioterror bacterial agents and discuss their assimilation in clinical and environmental samples.

MAPt: A Rapid Antibiotic Susceptibility Testing for Bacteria in Environmental Samples as a Means for Bioterror Preparedness

Antibiotic resistance of bio-threat agents holds major concerns especially in light of advances in methods for engineering pathogens with antibiotic resistance. Preparedness means for rapid identification and prompt proper medical treatment are of need to contain the event and prevent morbidity and spreading of the disease by properly treating exposed individuals before symptoms appearance. Herein, we describe a novel, rapid, simple, specific, and sensitive method named Micro-Agar-PCR-test (MAPt), which determines antibiotic susceptibility of bio-terror pathogens, directly from environmental samples, with no need for any prior isolation, quantification, or enrichment steps. As proof of concept, we have used this approach to obtain correct therapeutic antibiotic minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) values for the Tier-1 select agents, Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, and Francisella tularensis, spiked in various environmental samples recapitulating potential bioterror scenarios. The method demonstrated efficiency for a broad dynamic range of bacterial concentrations, both for fast-growing as well as slow-growing bacteria and most importantly significantly shortening the time for accurate results from days to a few hours. The MAPt allows us to address bioterror agents-contaminated environmental samples, offering rational targeted prophylactic treatment, before the onset of morbidity in exposed individuals. Hence, MAPt is expected to provide data for decision-making personal for treatment regimens before the onset of symptoms in infected individuals.

A Methodology for Determining Which Diseases Warrant Care in a High-Level Containment Care Unit

Although the concept of high-level containment care (HLCC or 'biocontainment'), dates back to 1969, the 2014-2016 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) brought with it a renewed emphasis on the use of specialized HLCC units in the care of patients with EVD. Employment of these units in the United States and Western Europe resulted in a significant decrease in mortality compared to traditional management in field settings. Moreover, this employment appeared to significantly lessen the risk of nosocomial transmission of disease; no secondary cases occurred among healthcare workers in these units. While many now accept the wisdom of utilizing HLCC units and principles in the management of EVD (and, presumably, of other transmissible and highly hazardous viral hemorrhagic fevers, such as those caused by Marburg and Lassa viruses), no consensus exists regarding additional diseases that might warrant HLCC. We propose here a construct designed to make such determinations for existing and newly discovered diseases. The construct examines infectivity (as measured by the infectious dose needed to infect 50% of a given population (ID50)), communicability (as measured by the reproductive number (R0)), and hazard (as measured by morbidity and mortality). Diseases fulfilling all three criteria (i.e., those that are highly infectious, communicable, and highly hazardous) are considered candidates for HLCC management if they also meet a fourth criterion, namely that they lack effective and available licensed countermeasures.

Human Dose-Response Data for Francisella tularensis and a Dose- and Time-Dependent Mathematical Model of Early-Phase Fever Associated with Tularemia After Inhalation Exposure

Military health risk assessors, medical planners, operational planners, and defense system developers require knowledge of human responses to doses of biothreat agents to support force health protection and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) defense missions. This article reviews extensive data from 118 human volunteers administered aerosols of the bacterial agent Francisella tularensis, strain Schu S4, which causes tularemia. The data set includes incidence of early-phase febrile illness following administration of well-characterized inhaled doses of F. tularensis. Supplemental data on human body temperature profiles over time available from de-identified case reports is also presented. A unified, logically consistent model of early-phase febrile illness is described as a lognormal dose-response function for febrile illness linked with a stochastic time profile of fever. Three parameters are estimated from the human data to describe the time profile: incubation period or onset time for fever; rise time of fever; and near-maximum body temperature. Inhaled dose-dependence and variability are characterized for each of the three parameters. These parameters enable a stochastic model for the response of an exposed population through incorporation of individual-by-individual variability by drawing random samples from the statistical distributions of these three parameters for each individual. This model provides risk assessors and medical decisionmakers reliable representations of the predicted health impacts of early-phase febrile illness for as long as one week after aerosol exposures of human populations to F. tularensis.

The Cynomolgus Macaque Natural History Model of Pneumonic Tularemia for Predicting Clinical Efficacy Under the Animal Rule

Francisella tularensis is a highly infectious Gram-negative bacterium that is the etiologic agent of tularemia in animals and humans and a Tier 1 select agent. The natural incidence of pneumonic tularemia worldwide is very low; therefore, it is not feasible to conduct clinical efficacy testing of tularemia medical countermeasures (MCM) in human populations. Development and licensure of tularemia therapeutics and vaccines need to occur under the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Animal Rule under which efficacy studies are conducted in well-characterized animal models that reflect the pathophysiology of human disease. The Tularemia Animal Model Qualification (AMQ) Working Group is seeking qualification of the cynomolgus macaque (Macaca fascicularis) model of pneumonic tularemia under Drug Development Tools Qualification Programs with the FDA based upon the results of studies described in this manuscript. Analysis of data on survival, average time to death, average time to fever onset, average interval between fever and death, and bacteremia; together with summaries of clinical signs, necropsy findings, and histopathology from the animals exposed to aerosolized F. tularensis Schu S4 in five natural history studies and one antibiotic efficacy study form the basis for the proposed cynomolgus macaque model. Results support the conclusion that signs of pneumonic tularemia in cynomolgus macaques exposed to 300–3,000 colony forming units (cfu) aerosolized F. tularensis Schu S4, under the conditions described herein, and human pneumonic tularemia cases are highly similar. Animal age, weight, and sex of animals challenged with 300–3,000 cfu Schu S4 did not impact fever onset in studies described herein. This study summarizes critical parameters and endpoints of a well-characterized cynomolgus macaque model of pneumonic tularemia and demonstrates this model is appropriate for qualification, and for testing efficacy of tularemia therapeutics under Animal Rule.

A human time dose response model for Q fever

The causative agent of Q fever, Coxiella burnetii, has the potential to be developed for use in biological warfare and it is classified as a bioterrorism threat agent by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and as a category B select agent by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). In this paper we focus on the in-host properties that arise when an individual inhales a dose of C. burnetii and establish a human time-dose response model. We also propagate uncertainty throughout the model allowing us to robustly estimate key properties including the infectious dose and incubation period. Using human study data conducted in the 1950's we conclude that the dose required for a 50% probability of infection is about 15 organisms, and that one inhaled organism of C. burnetti can cause infection in 5% of the exposed population. In addition, we derive a low dose incubation period of 17.6 days and an extracellular doubling time of half a day. In conclusion this paper provides a framework for detailing the parameters and approaches that would be required for risk assessments associated with exposures to C. burnetii that might cause human infection.

A review of back-calculation techniques and their potential to inform mitigation strategies with application to non-transmissible acute infectious diseases

Back-calculation is a process whereby generally unobservable features of an event leading to a disease outbreak can be inferred either in real-time or shortly after the end of the outbreak. These features might include the time when persons were exposed and the source of the outbreak. Such inferences are important as they can help to guide the targeting of mitigation strategies and to evaluate the potential effectiveness of such strategies. This article reviews the process of back-calculation with a particular emphasis on more recent applications concerning deliberate and naturally occurring aerosolized releases. The techniques can be broadly split into two themes: the simpler temporal models and the more sophisticated spatio-temporal models. The former require input data in the form of cases' symptom onset times, whereas the latter require additional spatial information such as the cases' home and work locations. A key aspect in the back-calculation process is the incubation period distribution, which forms the initial topic for consideration. Links between atmospheric dispersion modelling, within-host dynamics and back-calculation are outlined in detail. An example of how back-calculation can inform mitigation strategies completes the review by providing improved estimates of the duration of antibiotic prophylaxis that would be required in the response to an inhalational anthrax outbreak.

Aerosol-Transmitted Infections-a New Consideration for Public Health and Infection Control Teams

Since the emergence of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the 2003 reemergence of avian A/H5N1, the emergence of the 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1, the 2012 emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), the 2013 emergence of avian A/H7N9 and the 2014 Ebola virus outbreaks, the potential for the aerosol transmission of infectious agents is now routinely considered in the investigation of any outbreak. Although many organisms have traditionally been considered to be transmitted by only one route (e.g. direct/indirect contact and/or faecal-orally), it is now apparent that the aerosol transmission route is also possible and opportunistic, depending on any potentially aerosol-generating procedures, the severity of illness and the degree and duration of pathogen-shedding in the infected patient, as well as the environment in which these activities are conducted.This article reviews the evidence and characteristics of some of the accepted (tuberculosis, measles, chickenpox, whooping cough) and some of the more opportunistic (influenza, Clostridium difficile, norovirus) aerosol-transmitted infectious agents and outlines methods of detecting and quantifying transmission.

Generation and characterization of large-particle aerosols using a center flow tangential aerosol generator with a non-human-primate, head-only aerosol chamber

Aerosol droplets or particles produced from infected respiratory secretions have the potential to infect another host through inhalation. These respiratory particles can be polydisperse and range from 0.05 to 500 µm in diameter. Animal models of infection are generally established to facilitate the potential licensure of candidate prophylactics and/or therapeutics. Consequently, aerosol-based animal infection models are needed to properly study and counter airborne infections. Ideally, experimental aerosol exposure should reliably result in animal disease that faithfully reproduces the modeled human disease. Few studies have been performed to explore the relationship between exposure particle size and induced disease course for infectious aerosol particles. The center flow tangential aerosol generator (CenTAG™) produces large-particle aerosols capable of safely delivering a variety of infectious aerosols to non-human primates (NHPs) within a Class III Biological Safety Cabinet (BSC) for establishment or refinement of NHP infectious disease models. Here, we report the adaptation of this technology to the Animal Biosafety Level 4 (ABSL-4) environment for the future study of high-consequence viral pathogens and the characterization of CenTAG™-created sham (no animal, no virus) aerosols using a variety of viral growth media and media supplements.

A combined enrichment and aptamer pulldown assay for Francisella tularensis detection in food and environmental matrices

Francisella tularensis, a Gram-negative bacterium and causative agent of tularemia, is categorized as a Class A select agent by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention due to its ease of dissemination and ability to cause disease. Oropharyngeal and gastrointestinal tularemia may occur due to ingestion of contaminated food and water. Despite the concern to public health, little research is focused on F. tularensis detection in food and environmental matrices. Current diagnostics rely on host responses and amplification of F. tularensis genetic elements via Polymerase Chain Reaction; however, both tools are limited by development of an antibody response and limit of detection, respectively. During our investigation to develop an improved culture medium to aid F. tularensis diagnostics, we found enhanced F. tularensis growth using the spent culture filtrate. Addition of the spent culture filtrate allowed for increased detection of F. tularensis in mixed cultures of food and environmental matrices. Ultraperformance liquid chromatography (UPLC)/MS analysis identified several unique chemicals within the spent culture supernatant of which carnosine had a matching m/z ratio. Addition of 0.625 mg/mL of carnosine to conventional F. tularensis medium increased the growth of F. tularensis at low inoculums. In order to further enrich F. tularensis cells, we developed a DNA aptamer cocktail to physically separate F. tularensis from other bacteria present in food and environmental matrices. The combined enrichment steps resulted in a detection range of 1-106 CFU/mL (starting inoculums) in both soil and lettuce backgrounds. We propose that the two-step enrichment process may be utilized for easy field diagnostics and subtyping of suspected F. tularensis contamination as well as a tool to aid in basic research of F. tularensis ecology.

A dose and time response Markov model for the in-host dynamics of infection with intracellular bacteria following inhalation: with application to Francisella tularensis

In a novel approach, the standard birth–death process is extended to incorporate a fundamental mechanism undergone by intracellular bacteria, phagocytosis. The model accounts for stochastic interaction between bacteria and cells of the immune system and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection of individual hosts within a population. Model output is the dose–response relation and the dose-dependent distribution of time until response, where response is the onset of symptoms. The model is thereafter parametrized with respect to the highly virulent Schu S4 strain of Francisella tularensis, in the first such study to consider a biologically plausible mathematical model for early human infection with this bacterium. Results indicate a median infectious dose of about 23 organisms, which is higher than previously thought, and an average incubation period of between 3 and 7 days depending on dose. The distribution of incubation periods is right-skewed up to about 100 organisms and symmetric for larger doses. Moreover, there are some interesting parallels to the hypotheses of some of the classical dose–response models, such as independent action (single-hit model) and individual effective dose (probit model). The findings of this study support experimental evidence and postulations from other investigations that response is, in fact, influenced by both in-host and between-host variability.