Factors Associated with Chikungunya Relapse in Acapulco, Mexico: A Cross-Sectional Study

Global stability for a mosquito-borne disease model with continuous-time age structure in the susceptible and relapsed host classes

Mosquito-borne infectious diseases represent a significant public health issue. Age has been identified as a key risk factor for these diseases, and another phenomenon reported is relapse, which involves the reappearance of symptoms after a symptom-free period. Recent research indicates that susceptibility to and relapse of mosquito-borne diseases are frequently age-dependent. This paper proposes a new model to better capture the dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases by integrating two age-dependent factors: chronological age and asymptomatic-infection age. Chronological age refers to the time elapsed from the date of birth of the host to the present time. On the other hand, asymptomatic infection age denotes the time elapsed since the host became asymptomatic after the primary infection. The system of integro-differential equations uses flexible, unspecified functions to represent these dependencies, assuming they are integrable. We analyzed the global stability of both the disease-free and endemic equilibrium states using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra-type Lyapunov functionals. Additionally, the paper explores several special cases involving well-known host-vector models.

Analysis of spatial and demographic factors associated with chikungunya in Espírito Santo state, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya (CHIK) emerged in Brazil in 2014 and since then several epidemics have been observed. This study aims to describe the spatial, social and demographic characteristics of individuals affected by CHIK in Espírito Santo state.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed using data from individuals with a confirmed diagnosis of CHIK in Espírito Santo state, Brazil, from 2018 to 2020. Monthly incidence was calculated and annual spatial distribution maps were constructed. Statistical analysis using the χ2 test identified associations between disease occurrence and sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

In the period and area analysed, a CHIK epidemic occurred in 2020, with an incidence of 219.8 cases per 100 000 inhabitants. The southern and central regions of Espirito Santo state harboured a risk five times greater than the others in the epidemic region. Females (odds ratio [OR] 1.65 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.58 to 1.72]), black people (OR 1.22 [95% CI 1.13 to 1.33]), individuals with ≤11 y of education (OR 1.48 [95% CI 1.37 to 1.61]) and the elderly (OR 7.49 [95% CI 6.53 to 8.59]) had a greater risk for the disease.

CONCLUSIONS

CHIK stands as an emerging public health problem in Brazil since its introduction in 2014. Espírito Santo suffered a substantial epidemic in 2020, possibly due to outbreaks in neighbouring states. The population at risk should be prioritized in healthcare, considering the morbidity potential of the disease.

Analysis and Bayesian estimation of a model for Chikungunya dynamics with relapse: An outbreak in Acapulco, Mexico

Chikungunya is a vector-borne viral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. It does not have any specific treatment, and there is no vaccine. Recent epidemiological data have indicated that a relapse of the infection can occur within three months of the initial infection; however, until now, mathematical models for the spread of the disease have not considered this factor. We propose a mathematical model for the transmission of the Chikungunya virus that considers relapse. We calculated the basic reproductive number $ (R_0) $ of the disease by using the next-generation operator method. We proved the existence of a forward bifurcation. We determined the existence and the global stability of the equilibrium points by using the Lyapunov function method. We fitted the model to data from an outbreak in 2015 in Acapulco, Mexico to estimate the model parameters and $ R_0 $ with the Bayesian approach via a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. In the local sensitivity analysis, we found that the fraction of infected individuals who become asymptomatic has a strong impact on the basic reproductive number and makes some control measures insufficient. The impact of the fraction of infected individuals who become asymptomatic should be considered in Chikungunya control strategies.

Global geotemporal distribution of chikungunya disease, 2011-2022

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Humans serve as the primary reservoir. Chikungunya infections typically appear with an abrupt onset of fever, rash, and severe joint pain. Some 40% of cases develop chronic rheumatologic complications that can persist months to years.

OBJECTIVES

To improve precision of risk characterization by analyzing cases of chikungunya by year and by country and depicting this geotemporal distribution in map form.

METHOD

Chikungunya case counts by year were compiled from national or regional health authorities from 2011 to 2022. These data were augmented by published reviews plus the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED). Country-level distribution was categorized into four groups based on recency and magnitude. Data for India were mapped on a per-state basis.

RESULTS

The global map depicts distribution of chikungunya disease from 2011 through 2022. Most cases are reported in tropical and subtropical areas, but notable exceptions include the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Countries of high recency and frequency include India, Brazil, Sudan, and Thailand. Countries with high frequency, but few cases reported in 2019-22 include many Latin American and Caribbean countries. Subnational foci are discussed in general and mapped for India. The range of Aedes mosquitoes is broader than the geography where chikungunya infection is typically diagnosed.

CONCLUSIONS

These maps help identify geographical regions where residents or travelers are at greatest risk of chikungunya. Once vaccines are licensed to help prevent chikungunya, maps like these can help guide future vaccine decision-making.

Chikungunya in Guerrero, Mexico, 2019 and Evidence of Gross Underreporting in the Region

The local public health authorities reported nine cases of chikungunya in Mexico in 2019, none of which occurred in Guerrero, a coastal state in the southwest. To test the hypothesis that chikungunya is grossly underreported in Mexico, acute sera were collected from 639 febrile patients from low-income households in Guerrero in 2019 and serologically assayed for chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Analysis of the sera by plaque reduction neutralization test revealed that 181 (28.3%) patients were seropositive for CHIKV. To identify patients with acute CHIKV infections, a subset of sera samples were tested for CHIKV-specific IgM by ELISA. Sera samples from 21 of 189 (11.1%) patients were positive. These patients met the chikungunya case definition established by the WHO. In conclusion, we provide evidence that CHIKV remains an important public health problem in Mexico and that the true number of cases is severely underestimated.