1
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Williams RJ, Brintz BJ, Ribeiro Dos Santos G, Huang AT, Buddhari D, Kaewhiran S, Iamsirithaworn S, Rothman AL, Thomas S, Farmer A, Fernandez S, Cummings DAT, Anderson KB, Salje H, Leung DT. Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadj9786. [PMID: 38363842 PMCID: PMC10871531 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adj9786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Accepted: 01/17/2024] [Indexed: 02/18/2024]
Abstract
The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross-validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric significantly improved model performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert J. Williams
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Ben J. Brintz
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | | | - Angkana T. Huang
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Darunee Buddhari
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | | | - Alan L. Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Stephen Thomas
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA
| | - Aaron Farmer
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Stefan Fernandez
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Derek A. T. Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Kathryn B. Anderson
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Daniel T. Leung
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
- Division of Microbiology and Immunology, Department of Pathology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
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2
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Hamins-Puértolas M, Buddhari D, Salje H, Cummings DAT, Fernandez S, Farmer A, Kaewhiran S, Khampaen D, Iamsirithaworn S, Srikiatkhachorn A, Waickman A, Thomas SJ, Rothman AL, Endy T, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Anderson KB. Household immunity and individual risk of infection with dengue virus in a prospective, longitudinal cohort study. Nat Microbiol 2024; 9:274-283. [PMID: 38110699 PMCID: PMC10895643 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-023-01543-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023]
Abstract
Although it is known that household infections drive the transmission of dengue virus (DENV), it is unclear how household composition and the immune status of inhabitants affect the individual risk of infection. Most population-based studies to date have focused on paediatric cohorts because more severe forms of dengue mainly occur in children, and the role of adults in dengue transmission is understudied. Here we analysed data from a multigenerational cohort study of 470 households, comprising 2,860 individuals, in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, to evaluate risk factors for DENV infection. Using a gradient-boosted regression model trained on annual haemagglutination inhibition antibody titre inputs, we identified 1,049 infections, 90% of which were subclinical. By analysing imputed infections, we found that individual antibody titres, household composition and antibody titres of other members in the same household affect an individual's risk of DENV infection. Those individuals living in households with high average antibody titres, or households with more adults, had a reduced risk of infection. We propose that herd immunity to dengue acts at the household level and may provide insight into the drivers of the recent change in the shifting age distribution of dengue cases in Thailand.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Darunee Buddhari
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Derek A T Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Stefan Fernandez
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Aaron Farmer
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | | | | | - Anon Srikiatkhachorn
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics, Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI, USA
- Faculty of Medicine, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Adam Waickman
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA
| | - Stephen J Thomas
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Sciences, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA
| | - Alan L Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics, Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Timothy Endy
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Washington DC, USA
| | | | - Kathryn B Anderson
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA.
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Sciences, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA.
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3
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Pronyk PM, de Alwis R, Rockett R, Basile K, Boucher YF, Pang V, Sessions O, Getchell M, Golubchik T, Lam C, Lin R, Mak TM, Marais B, Twee-Hee Ong R, Clapham HE, Wang L, Cahyorini Y, Polotan FGM, Rukminiati Y, Sim E, Suster C, Smith GJ, Sintchenko V. Advancing pathogen genomics in resource-limited settings. CELL GENOMICS 2023; 3:100443. [PMID: 38116115 PMCID: PMC10726422 DOI: 10.1016/j.xgen.2023.100443] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2023]
Abstract
Genomic sequencing has emerged as a powerful tool to enhance early pathogen detection and characterization with implications for public health and clinical decision making. Although widely available in developed countries, the application of pathogen genomics among low-resource, high-disease burden settings remains at an early stage. In these contexts, tailored approaches for integrating pathogen genomics within infectious disease control programs will be essential to optimize cost efficiency and public health impact. We propose a framework for embedding pathogen genomics within national surveillance plans across a spectrum of surveillance and laboratory capacities. We adopt a public health approach to genomics and examine its application to high-priority diseases relevant in resource-limited settings. For each grouping, we assess the value proposition for genomics to inform public health and clinical decision-making, alongside its contribution toward research and development of novel diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Michael Pronyk
- Centre for Outbreak Preparedness, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore
| | - Ruklanthi de Alwis
- Centre for Outbreak Preparedness, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore
- Emerging Infectious Diseases Programme, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore
| | - Rebecca Rockett
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology – Public Health, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia
| | - Kerri Basile
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology Laboratory Services, NSW Health Pathology – Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia
| | - Yann Felix Boucher
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore 117549, Singapore
- Infectious Diseases Translational Research Programme, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore 117549, Singapore
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117549, Singapore
- Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore
| | - Vincent Pang
- Centre for Outbreak Preparedness, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore
| | - October Sessions
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
| | - Marya Getchell
- Centre for Outbreak Preparedness, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore
| | - Tanya Golubchik
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology – Public Health, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK
| | - Connie Lam
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology – Public Health, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia
| | - Raymond Lin
- National Public Health Laboratory, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore 308442, Singapore
| | - Tze-Minn Mak
- Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore 138671, Singapore
| | - Ben Marais
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
| | - Rick Twee-Hee Ong
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore 117549, Singapore
| | - Hannah Eleanor Clapham
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore 117549, Singapore
| | - Linfa Wang
- Emerging Infectious Diseases Programme, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore
- Programme for Research in Epidemic Preparedness and Response (PREPARE), Ministry of Health, Singapore 169854, Singapore
| | - Yorin Cahyorini
- Center for Health Resilience and Resource Policy, Ministry of Health, Jakarta 12950, Indonesia
| | - Francisco Gerardo M. Polotan
- Molecular Biology Laboratory, Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Muntinlupa 1781, Metro Manila, Philippines
| | - Yuni Rukminiati
- Center for Health Resilience and Resource Policy, Ministry of Health, Jakarta 12950, Indonesia
| | - Eby Sim
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology – Public Health, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia
| | - Carl Suster
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology – Public Health, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia
| | - Gavin J.D. Smith
- Emerging Infectious Diseases Programme, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore
| | - Vitali Sintchenko
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology – Public Health, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia
- Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology Laboratory Services, NSW Health Pathology – Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia
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4
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O’Driscoll M, Buddhari D, Huang AT, Waickman A, Kaewhirun S, Iamsirithaworn S, Khampaen D, Farmer A, Fernandez S, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Srikiatkhachorn A, Thomas S, Endy T, Rothman AL, Anderson K, Cummings DAT, Salje H. Maternally derived antibody titer dynamics and risk of hospitalized infant dengue disease. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2308221120. [PMID: 37774093 PMCID: PMC10576102 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2308221120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Accepted: 08/12/2023] [Indexed: 10/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Infants less than 1 y of age experience high rates of dengue disease in dengue virus (DENV) endemic countries. This burden is commonly attributed to antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), whereby concentrations of maternally derived DENV antibodies become subneutralizing, and infection-enhancing. Understanding antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk represents a significant challenge due to the dynamic nature of antibodies and their imperfect measurement processes. Further, key uncertainties exist regarding the impact of long-term shifts in birth rates, population-level infection risks, and maternal ages on the DENV immune landscape of newborns and their subsequent risks of severe dengue disease in infancy. Here, we analyze DENV antibody data from two infant cohorts (N = 142 infants with 605 blood draws) and 40 y of infant dengue hospitalization data from Thailand. We use mathematical models to reconstruct maternally derived antibody dynamics, accounting for discretized measurement processes and limits of assay detection. We then explore possible antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk and their ability to reconstruct the observed age distribution of hospitalized infant dengue cases. We find that ADE mechanisms are best able to reconstruct the observed data. Finally, we describe how the shifting epidemiology of dengue in Thailand, combined with declining birth rates, have decreased the absolute risk of infant dengue disease by 88% over a 40-y period while having minimal impact on the mean age of infant hospitalized dengue disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan O’Driscoll
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, CambridgeCB23EH, United Kingdom
| | - Darunee Buddhari
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok10400, Thailand
| | - Angkana T. Huang
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, CambridgeCB23EH, United Kingdom
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok10400, Thailand
| | - Adam Waickman
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY13210
| | - Surachai Kaewhirun
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi11000, Thailand
| | - Sopon Iamsirithaworn
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi11000, Thailand
| | - Direk Khampaen
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi11000, Thailand
| | - Aaron Farmer
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok10400, Thailand
| | - Stefan Fernandez
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok10400, Thailand
| | | | - Anon Srikiatkhachorn
- Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, Institute for Immunology and Informatics, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI02903
- Faculty of Medicine, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok10520, Thailand
| | - Stephen Thomas
- Department of Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY13210
| | - Timothy Endy
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Washington, DC20006
| | - Alan L. Rothman
- Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, Institute for Immunology and Informatics, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI02903
| | - Kathryn Anderson
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok10400, Thailand
- Department of Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY13210
| | | | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, CambridgeCB23EH, United Kingdom
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL32611
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5
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Williams RJ, Brintz BJ, Santos GRD, Huang A, Buddhari D, Kaewhiran S, Iamsirithaworn S, Rothman AL, Thomas S, Farmer A, Fernandez S, Cummings DAT, Anderson KB, Salje H, Leung DT. Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.08.08.23293840. [PMID: 37609267 PMCID: PMC10441499 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.08.23293840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/24/2023]
Abstract
The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric, significantly improved model performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- RJ Williams
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA
| | - Ben J. Brintz
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA
| | | | - Angkana Huang
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Darunee Buddhari
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | | | - Alan L. Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, USA
| | - Stephen Thomas
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, USA
| | - Aaron Farmer
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Stefan Fernandez
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Derek A T Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
| | - Kathryn B Anderson
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, USA
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel T. Leung
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA
- Division of Microbiology and Immunology, Department of Pathology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA
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6
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Abstract
Commemorating the 2021 ASEAN Dengue Day and advocacy for World Dengue Day, the International Society for Neglected Tropical Diseases (ISNTD) and Asian Dengue Voice and Action (ADVA) Group jointly hosted the ISNTD-ADVA World Dengue Day Forum–Cross Sector Synergies in June 2021. The forum aimed to achieve international and multisectoral coordination to consolidate global dengue control and prevention efforts, share best practices and resources, and improve global preparedness. The forum featured experts around the world who shared their insight, research experience, and strategies to tackle the growing threat of dengue. Over 2,000 healthcare care professionals, researchers, epidemiologists, and policy makers from 59 countries attended the forum, highlighting the urgency for integrated, multisectoral collaboration between health, environment, education, and policy to continue the march against dengue. Sustained vector control, environmental management, surveillance improved case management, continuous vaccine advocacy and research, capacity building, political commitment, and community engagement are crucial components of dengue control. A coordinated strategy based on science, transparency, timely and credible communication, and understanding of human behavior is needed to overcome vaccine hesitancy, a major health risk further magnified by the COVID-19 pandemic. The forum announced a strong call to action to establish World Dengue Day to improve global awareness, share best practices, and prioritize preparedness in the fight against dengue. The growing threat of dengue poses a significant public health burden endangering the well-being and socioeconomic development of many countries across the world. The International Society for Neglected Tropical Diseases (ISNTD) and Asian Dengue Voice and Action (ADVA) group brought together the collaborative efforts of healthcare care professionals, researchers, epidemiologists, environmentalists, and policy makers to coordinate international dengue control strategy. A strong call to action to establish a World Dengue Day was announced to improve global awareness, share best practices, and prioritize preparedness in the fight against dengue. The World Dengue Day highlighted the need for all governments, healthcare professionals, civil societies, public and private sectors, schools and universities, and citizens in dengue-endemic countries to form a strong coalition to encourage and accelerate a collective dengue control response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nattachai Srisawat
- Tropical Medicine Cluster, Chulalongkorn University, Excellence Center for Critical Care Nephrology, King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, and Center of Excellence in Critical Care Nephrology, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
- * E-mail:
| | - Usa Thisyakorn
- Tropical Medicine Cluster, Chulalongkorn University and Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Zulkifli Ismail
- Department of Pediatrics, KPJ Selangor Specialist Hospital, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Kamran Rafiq
- International Society for Neglected Tropical Diseases, London, United Kingdom
| | - Duane J. Gubler
- Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
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7
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Watson HR, Duong V, Ly S, Mandron M, Siqueira AM, Ribeiro GS. Household clustering supports a novel chemoprophylaxis trial design for a mosquito-borne viral disease. Int J Infect Dis 2022; 122:169-173. [PMID: 35568359 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.05.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Revised: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/07/2022] [Indexed: 10/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Infections because of chikungunya and other mosquito-borne viruses, such as dengue and Zika, represent an area of significant unmet medical need. There are currently no approved medicines for prophylaxis or treatment of these diseases, and the development and implementation of vaccines against these viruses have proved problematic. Although antiviral molecules with treatment and prophylactic potential against the chikungunya virus have been identified, no successful field trials have been reported. Chemoprophylaxis may be attractive for unvaccinated at-risk populations; however, performing a successful chemoprophylaxis trial during a chikungunya outbreak will require a clearly identifiable at-risk population. We propose the application of a household transmission model as used in testing drugs against respiratory viruses. Current evidence on household clustering of chikungunya and other Aedes mosquito-borne viral infections is supportive. We suggest that this model may improve prophylaxis trial feasibility and focus research and future treatment on a population likely to benefit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hugh R Watson
- Antiviral Research Unit, Evotec ID, 40 avenue Tony Garnier, 69007, Lyon, France; Departments of Clinical Pharmacology, Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
| | - Veasna Duong
- Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Pasteur Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Sowath Ly
- Epidemiology and Public Health Unit, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Pasteur Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | | | - André M Siqueira
- Instituto Nacional de Infectologia - Evandro Chagas, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Guilherme S Ribeiro
- Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil; School of Medicine, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
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8
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Ribeiro Dos Santos G, Buddhari D, Iamsirithaworn S, Khampaen D, Ponlawat A, Fansiri T, Farmer A, Fernandez S, Thomas S, Barraquer IR, Srikiatkhachorn A, Huang AT, Cummings DAT, Endy T, Rothman AL, Salje H, Anderson K. Individual, household and community drivers of dengue virus infection risk in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand. J Infect Dis 2022; 226:1348-1356. [PMID: 35512137 PMCID: PMC9574660 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiac177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2022] [Accepted: 05/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) often circulates endemically. In such settings with high levels of transmission, it remains unclear whether there are risk factors that alter individual infection risk. We tested blood taken from individuals living in multigenerational households in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand for DENV antibodies (N = 2364, mean age 31y). Seropositivity ranged from 45.4% among those 1-5y to 99.5% for those >30y. Using spatially explicit catalytic models, we estimated 11.8% of the susceptible population gets infected annually. We found 37.5% of the variance in seropositivity was explained by unmeasured household-level effects with only 4.2% explained by spatial differences between households. The serostatus of individuals from the same household remained significantly correlated even when separated by up to 15 years in age. These findings show that despite highly endemic transmission, persistent differences in infection risk exist across households, the reasons for which remain unclear.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Darunee Buddhari
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand
| | - Sopon Iamsirithaworn
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Tiwanond, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Direk Khampaen
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Tiwanond, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Alongkot Ponlawat
- Department of Entomology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand
| | - Thanyalak Fansiri
- Department of Entomology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand
| | - Aaron Farmer
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand
| | - Stefan Fernandez
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand
| | | | | | - Anon Srikiatkhachorn
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics, Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI 02903, USA.,Faculty of Medicine, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Angkana T Huang
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, UK.,Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand
| | - Derek A T Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA.,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, USA
| | - Timothy Endy
- SUNY upstate, State of New York, USA.,Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Washington DC, USA
| | - Alan L Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics, Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI 02903, USA
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, UK.,Department of Biology, University of Florida, USA
| | - Kathryn Anderson
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand.,SUNY upstate, State of New York, USA
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9
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RE: ``AN INNOVATIVE, PROSPECTIVE, HYBRID COHORT-CLUSTER STUDY DESIGN TO CHARACTERIZE DENGUE VIRUS TRANSMISSION IN MULTIGENERATIONAL HOUSEHOLDS IN KAMPHAENG PHET, THAILAND''. Am J Epidemiol 2021; 190:1703. [PMID: 34100893 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2021] [Revised: 04/16/2021] [Accepted: 04/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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Buddhari D, Anderson KB, Gromowski GD, Jarman RG, Iamsirithaworn S, Thaisomboonsuk B, Hunsawong T, Srikiatkhachorn A, Rothman AL, Jones AR, Fernandez S, Thomas SJ, Endy TP. Correlation between reported dengue illness history and seropositivity in rural Thailand. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009459. [PMID: 34129599 PMCID: PMC8232416 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2020] [Revised: 06/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
In the latest World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for Dengvaxia implementation, either serological testing or a person's history of prior dengue illness may be used as supporting evidence to identify dengue virus (DENV)-immune individuals eligible for vaccination, in areas with limited capacity for laboratory confirmation. This analysis aimed to estimate the concordance between self-reported dengue illness histories and seropositivity in a prospective cohort study for dengue virus infection in Kamphaeng Phet province, a dengue-endemic area in northern Thailand. The study enrolled 2,076 subjects from 516 multigenerational families, with a median age of 30.6 years (range 0-90 years). Individual and family member dengue illness histories were obtained by questionnaire. Seropositivity was defined based on hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays. Overall seropositivity for DENV was 86.5% among those aged 9-45 years, which increased with age. 18.5% of participants reported a history of dengue illness prior to enrollment; 30.1% reported a previous DENV infection in the family, and 40.1% reported DENV infection in either themselves or a family member. Relative to seropositivity by HAI in the vaccine candidate group, the sensitivity and specificity of individual prior dengue illness history were 18.5% and 81.6%, respectively; sensitivity and specificity of reported dengue illness in a family member were 29.8% and 68.0%, and of either the individual or a family member were 40.1% and 60.5%. Notably, 13.4% of individuals reporting prior dengue illness were seronegative. Given the high occurrence of asymptomatic and mild DENV infection, self-reported dengue illness history is poorly sensitive for prior exposure and may misclassify individuals as 'exposed' when they were not. This analysis highlights that a simple, highly sensitive, and highly specific test for determining serostatus prior to Dengvaxia vaccination is urgently needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darunee Buddhari
- Department of Virology, USAMD-AFRIMS, Bangkok, Thailand
- * E-mail:
| | - Kathryn B. Anderson
- Department of Virology, USAMD-AFRIMS, Bangkok, Thailand
- State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Richard G. Jarman
- Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States
| | | | | | | | - Anon Srikiatkhachorn
- University of Rhode Island, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America
- Faculty of Medicine, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Alan L. Rothman
- University of Rhode Island, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | | | | | - Stephen J. Thomas
- State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
| | - Timothy P. Endy
- State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
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