Timing of menopause and patterns of menstrual bleeding

Modeling delay of age at natural menopause with planned tissue cryopreservation and autologous transplantation

BACKGROUND

Ovarian tissue cryopreservation has been proven to preserve fertility against gonadotoxic treatments. It has not been clear how this procedure would perform if planned for slowing ovarian aging.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the feasibility of cryopreserving ovarian tissue to extend reproductive life span and delay menopause by autotransplantation near menopause.

STUDY DESIGN

Based on the existing biological data on follicle loss rates, a stochastic model of primordial follicle wastage was developed to determine the years of delay in menopause (denoted by D) by ovarian tissue cryopreservation and transplantation near menopause. Our model accounted for (1) age at ovarian tissue harvest (21-40 years), (2) the amount of ovarian cortex harvested, (3) transplantation of harvested tissues in single vs multiple procedures (fractionation), and (4) posttransplant follicle survival (40% [conservative] vs 80% [improved] vs 100% [ideal or hypothetical]).

RESULTS

Our model predicted that, for most women aged <40 years, ovarian tissue cryopreservation and transplantation would result in a significant delay in menopause. The advantage is greater if the follicle loss after transplant can be minimized. As an example, the delay in menopause (D) for a woman with a median ovarian reserve who cryopreserves 25% of her ovarian cortex at the age of 25 years and for whom 40% of follicles survive after transplantation would be approximately 11.8 years, but this extends to 15.5 years if the survival is 80%. As another novel finding, spreading the same amount of tissue to repetitive transplants significantly extends the benefit. For example, for the same 25-year-old woman with a median ovarian reserve, 25% cortex removal, and 40% follicle survival, fractionating the transplants to 3 or 6 procedures would result in the corresponding delay in menopause (D) of 23 or 31 years. The same conditions (3 or 6 procedures) would delay menopause as much as 47 years if posttransplant follicle survival is improved to 80% with modern approaches. An interactive Web tool was created to test all variables and the feasibility of ovarian tissue freezing and transplantation to delay ovarian aging (here).

CONCLUSION

Our model predicts that with harvesting at earlier adult ages and better transplant techniques, a significant menopause postponement and, potentially, fertile life span extension can be achieved by ovarian tissue cryopreservation and transplantation in healthy women.

Mathematical recapitulation of the end stages of human ovarian aging

Ovarian aging in women can be described as highly unpredictable within individuals but predictable across large populations. We showed previously that modeling an individual woman's ovarian reserve of primordial follicles using mathematical random walks replicates the natural pattern of growing follicles exiting the reserve. Compiling many simulations yields the observed population distribution of the age at natural menopause (ANM). Here, we have probed how stochastic control of primordial follicle loss might relate to the distribution of the preceding menopausal transition (MT), when women begin to experience menstrual cycle irregularity. We show that identical random walk model conditions produce both the reported MT distribution and the ANM distribution when thresholds are set for growing follicle availability. The MT and ANM are shown to correspond to gaps when primordial follicles fail to grow for 7 and 12 days, respectively. Modeling growing follicle supply is shown to precisely recapitulate epidemiological data and provides quantitative criteria for the MT and ANM in humans.

Slowest first passage times, redundancy, and menopause timing

Biological events are often initiated when a random "searcher" finds a "target," which is called a first passage time (FPT). In some biological systems involving multiple searchers, an important timescale is the time it takes the slowest searcher(s) to find a target. For example, of the hundreds of thousands of primordial follicles in a woman's ovarian reserve, it is the slowest to leave that trigger the onset of menopause. Such slowest FPTs may also contribute to the reliability of cell signaling pathways and influence the ability of a cell to locate an external stimulus. In this paper, we use extreme value theory and asymptotic analysis to obtain rigorous approximations to the full probability distribution and moments of slowest FPTs. Though the results are proven in the limit of many searchers, numerical simulations reveal that the approximations are accurate for any number of searchers in typical scenarios of interest. We apply these general mathematical results to models of ovarian aging and menopause timing, which reveals the role of slowest FPTs for understanding redundancy in biological systems. We also apply the theory to several popular models of stochastic search, including search by diffusive, subdiffusive, and mortal searchers.

Number of lifetime menses increases breast cancer occurrence in postmenopausal women at high familial risk

It is increasingly thought that part of human susceptibility to cancer is the result of evolutionary mismatches: our ancestors evolved cancer suppression mechanisms in a world largely different from our modern environments. In that context, it has been shown in cohorts from general Western populations that reproductive traits modulate breast cancer risk. Overall, the more menses women experience, the more at risk they are to develop postmenopausal breast cancer. This points towards an evolutionary mismatch but brings the question whether the reproductive pattern also modulates the breast cancer risk in menopausal women at high familial risk. We thus studied the influence of menses on breast cancer risk in a case–control study of 90 postmenopausal women (including BRCA1/2 and non BRCA1/2) nested within a cohort at high familial risk. We tested the association of the lifetime number of menses and the number of menses before first full-term pregnancy with postmenopausal breast cancer risk using Cox survival models. We showed that the total lifetime number of menses was significantly associated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk and associated with a quicker onset of breast cancer after menopause. Those results align with similar studies lead in general cohorts and suggest that the reproductive pattern modulates the familial risk of developing breast cancer after menopause. Altogether, those results impact how we envision breast cancer prevention and call for more research on how ecological and genetic factors shape breast cancer risk.

Recapitulating human ovarian aging using random walks

Mechanism(s) that control whether individual human primordial ovarian follicles (PFs) remain dormant, or begin to grow, are all but unknown. One of our groups has recently shown that activation of the Integrated Stress Response (ISR) pathway can slow follicular granulosa cell proliferation by activating cell cycle checkpoints. Those data suggest that the ISR is active and fluctuates according to local conditions in dormant PFs. Because cell cycle entry of (pre)granulosa cells is required for PF growth activation (PFGA), we propose that rare ISR checkpoint resolution allows individual PFs to begin to grow. Fluctuating ISR activity within individual PFs can be described by a random process. In this article, we model ISR activity of individual PFs by one-dimensional random walks (RWs) and monitor the rate at which simulated checkpoint resolution and thus PFGA threshold crossing occurs. We show that the simultaneous recapitulation of (i) the loss of PFs over time within simulated subjects, and (ii) the timing of PF depletion in populations of simulated subjects equivalent to the distribution of the human age of natural menopause can be produced using this approach. In the RW model, the probability that individual PFs grow is influenced by regionally fluctuating conditions, that over time manifests in the known pattern of PFGA. Considered at the level of the ovary, randomness appears to be a key, purposeful feature of human ovarian aging.

Cumulative Endogenous Estrogen Exposure Is Associated With Postmenopausal Fracture Risk: The Women's Health Initiative Study

We aimed to evaluate the relationship between cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure and fracture risk in 150,682 postmenopausal women (aged 50 to 79 years at baseline) who participated in the Women's Health Initiative. We hypothesized that characteristics indicating lower cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure would be associated with increased fracture risk. We determined ages at menarche and menopause as well as history of irregular menses from baseline questionnaires and calculated years of endogenous estrogen exposure from ages at menarche and menopause. Incident clinical fractures were self-reported over an average 16.7 years of follow-up. We used multivariable proportional hazards models to assess the associations between the estrogen-related variables and incidence of any clinical fracture. In fully adjusted models, those with the fewest years of endogenous estrogen exposure (<30) had an 11% higher risk of developing central body fractures and a 9% higher risk of lower extremity fractures than women with 36 to 40 years of endogenous estrogen exposure (the reference category). In contrast, women with the most years of endogenous estrogen exposure (more than 45 years) had a 9% lower risk of lower extremity fractures than the reference category. Women with irregular (not monthly) menstrual cycles were 7% to 8% more likely to experience lower extremity fractures than women with regular monthly cycles. Our findings support the hypothesis that characteristics signifying lower cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure are associated with higher fracture risk. © 2022 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Role of AMH in Prediction of Menopause

Anti-Müllerian Hormone (AMH) is produced by small antral follicles and has evolved over the past three decades as an assumed potential marker of the number of follicles in the human ovaries, also known as ovarian reserve. This quantitative measure, given the gradual decline over time and its non-replenishable feature, could be the dreamed marker for predicting the final exhaustion of ovarian storage: the post-menopause. This introductory chapter summarizes current knowledge with regard to the contribution of serum AMH measurements to predict age of normal menopause and critically discuss its potential in this regard. Furthermore, its predictive role in the context of menopause in association with several frequently occurring fertility disorders such as premature menopause, polycystic ovarian syndrome and endometriosis are discussed. Overall, while ovarian reserve markers including AMH are unmistakably related to age at menopause, they are insufficiently precise to inform on an individual's journey of ovarian aging.

Age at menopause in India: A systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Menopause is a physiological process in nature and hence, variations in the age of menopause are not expected. Hence, the study was conducted with an objective to calculate the reliable estimates of age at menopause for India, and understand the differentials in women's age at menopause throughout the country.

METHODS

A total of 202 studies of age at menopause, covering the period 2009-2020, were accessed from PubMed database and Google. Of these only ten studies met the selection criteria for this paper, which is that the data for these studies must be collected from house-to-house surveys.

RESULTS

The average age at menopause in India, with minimal publication bias, is 46.6 years (95% CI: 44.83, 48.44). In one study slightly above 1.96 Standard Deviation, was observed, as ascertained by Funnel Plot and Egger's test. The mean age ranged from a minimum of 44.69 years (95% CI: 35.01, 54.37) to a maximum of 48.95 (95% CI: 42.29, 55.61) years. Furthermore, the age at menopause did not exhibit any significant variation by age at menarche, although the association was positive.

CONCLUSIONS

The age at menopause showed positive association with age at menarche. In India, during the period 2009-2020, it was 46.6 years, which significantly lower than the age in some developed countries. The differences may be methodological since no information was found regarding the distribution of age at menopause in the studies that were considered for meta-analysis.

Rotating night shift work and menopausal age

STUDY QUESTION

How are rotating night shift schedules associated with age at menopause among a large, national cohort of shift working nurses?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Our findings suggest that working rotating night shifts with sufficient frequency may modestly accelerate reproductive senescence among women who may already be predisposed to earlier menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Younger age at menopause has been associated with increased risk of adverse health outcomes, particularly those linked to reproduction. Night work has been associated with reproductive dysfunction, including disruption of menstrual cycle patterns.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This cohort study was conducted among 80 840 women of the Nurses' Health Study 2 (NHS2), with prospective follow-up from 1991 through 2013. Loss-to-follow-up of the NHS2 is estimated to be <10%.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We assessed the association between cumulative and current rotating night shift work and age at natural menopause over 22 years of follow-up (1991-2013). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for menopause, adjusted for age, smoking status, body mass index, physical activity, alcohol consumption, reproductive factors and exogenous hormone use.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Over follow-up, 27 456 women (34%) reached natural menopause. Women who worked 20 or more months of rotating night shifts in the prior 2-year had an increased risk of earlier menopause (multivariable-adjusted (MV)-HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.16) compared to women without rotating night shift work. This risk was stronger among women undergoing menopause or otherwise censored under age 45 years (MV-HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.08-1.46), than it was for those continuing in the study when >45 years old (MV-HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.99-1.13). Working 10 or more years of cumulative rotating night work was also associated with higher risk of menopause among women reaching menopause under age 45 (MV-HR10-19 years = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03-1.44; MV-HR≥20 years = 1.73, 95% CI: 0.90-3.35), though not over the age of 45 years (MV-HR10-19 years = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.99-1.10; MV-HR≥20 years = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.89-1.15).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The degree to which observed effects of rotating night shifts on age at natural menopause are due to circadian disruption, rather than fatigue and stress associated with working more demanding schedules, is uncertain due to potential residual confounding by these factors.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This is the first study to assess the effects of night work on menopausal timing among a larger national cohort of shift working women. Women already prone to earlier menopause may further truncate their reproductive lifetime by working schedules comprising day as well as night shifts.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study was supported by Center for Disease Control and Prevention/The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Grant 5R01OH009803 (PI: Schernhammer E), as well as UM1 CA176726 from the National Institute of Health. The funding sources had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the article; and decision to submit the article for publication. The authors have no conflicts of interest.

Impact of Gender and Age on the Prognosis of Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma: a Retrospective Analysis Based on SEER

The incidence of thyroid cancer in females is significantly higher than that in males; however, females are more likely to have more favorable outcomes. We aimed to determine the characteristics of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) subtypes in males and females, and to compare their clinical behavior and survival. A total of 68,337 cases were recruited from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. The disease-specific survival (DSS) of follicular variant papillary thyroid carcinoma (FVPTC) and follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) were similar to that of classical variant papillary thyroid carcinoma (CPTC) in male patients (FVPTC vs. CPTC, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.947, P = 0.776; FTC vs. CPTC, aHR = 1.512, P = 0.104). In premenopausal female (< 55 years old), FVPTC had better DSS than CPTC (aHR = 0.321, P = 0.038) while FTC had worse DSS than CPTC (aHR = 3.272, P = 0.013); in postmenopausal female, FTC had poorer prognosis than CPTC (aHR = 2.145, P = 0.002), no statistical difference was found between CPTC and FVPTC (aHR = 0.724, P = 0.087). For patients younger than 55 years, women had significantly better DSS compared with men with CPTC (aHR = 0.376, P < 0.001) and FVPTC (aHR = 0.102, P < 0.001). However, no difference was observed in patients older than 55 years. Interestingly, outcomes of FTC were not affected by gender in patients of all ages. These results suggested that different clinical behaviors and outcomes of DTC subtypes should be considered in patients with different genders.

Reproductive history and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in postmenopausal women: findings from the Women's Health Initiative

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to understand the association between women's reproductive history and their risk of developing type 2 diabetes. We hypothesized that characteristics signifying lower cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure would be associated with increased risk.

METHODS

Prospective cohort analysis of 124,379 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). We determined age of menarche and final menstrual period, and history of irregular menses from questionnaires at baseline, and calculated reproductive length from age of menarche and final menstrual period. Presence of new onset type 2 diabetes was from self-report. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed associations between reproductive variables and incidence of type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

In age-adjusted models, women with the shortest (<30 y) reproductive periods had a 37% (95% CI, 30-45) greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes than women with medium-length reproductive periods (36-40 y). Women with the longest (45+ y) reproductive periods had a 23% (95% CI, 12-37) higher risk than women with medium-length periods. These associations were attenuated after full adjustment (HR 1.07 [1.01, 1.14] for shortest and HR 1.09 [0.99, 1.22] for longest, compared with medium duration). Those with a final menstrual period before age 45 and after age 55 had an increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.04; 95% CI, 0.99-1.09 and HR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14, respectively) compared to those with age of final menstrual period between 46 and 55 years. Timing of menarche and cycle regularity was not associated with risk after full adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

Reproductive history may be associated with type 2 diabetes risk. Women with shorter and longer reproductive periods may benefit from lifestyle counseling to prevent type 2 diabetes.

Diurnal coupling between testosterone and cortisol from adolescence to older adulthood

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) and hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axes are typically conceptualized as mutually inhibitory systems; however, previous studies have found evidence for positive within-person associations (i.e., coupling) between cortisol and testosterone. One developmental hypothesis is that positive testosterone-cortisol coupling is unique to the adolescent period and that coupling becomes attenuated, or even switches direction, in adulthood. This study used a lifespan sample (N=292, ages 11-88) to test for age-related differences in coupling between cortisol and testosterone in daily life. Participants provided salivary hormone samples at waking, 30min after waking, and during the evening for two days. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to test the within-person and between-person associations between testosterone and cortisol. Within-person associations were further decomposed into associations due to coupled diurnal change versus coupled variability around diurnal change. Results indicated positive associations between cortisol and testosterone at all levels of analysis. Additionally, positive coupling was evident across the lifespan, even in older adults who are no longer expected to reproduce, but further investigation of developmental differences with a larger sample is necessary. Potential mechanisms and functions for positive coupling are discussed.

Relationship between some indicators of reproductive history, body fatness and the menopausal transition in Hungarian women

BACKGROUND

This paper analyzed the relationship between some indicators of reproductive history and body fatness in relation to the timing of the menopause transition in Hungarian women using survival analysis after controlling for birth cohort.

METHODS

Data on menstruation and reproductive history were collected during the personal interviews in a sample of 1932 women (aged 35+ years). Menarcheal age, the length of menstrual cycles and menstrual bleedings, regularity of menstrual cycles, number of gestations, lactation, the ever use of contraceptives, menopausal status and age at menopause were used as indicators of reproductive history. The body fat fraction was estimated by bioelectrical impedance analysis. Body fatness was also estimated by dividing women into obese and non-obese categories (considering body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio). Survival analyses were used to analyze the relationship between the indicators of reproductive history and body fatness during the menopausal transition.

RESULTS

Only the menarcheal age among the investigated reproductive life characteristics showed secular changes in the studied decades in Hungary; the mean age at menarche decreased by approximately 2.5 months per decade from the 1920s until the 1970s. Ever use of hormonal contraceptives, a relatively long cycle length in the perimenopausal transition and higher parity were all related with lower risk of early menopause. Later menarcheal age, normal length of menstrual cycle or bleeding in the climacterium, irregular bleeding pattern and postmenopausal status were associated with a higher amount of body fatness, while never use of contraceptives, regular menstruation, postmenopausal status and relatively early menopause were associated with a higher risk of abdominal obesity.

CONCLUSION

This report confirms that age of menarche is not significantly predictive of age at menopause but prior use of oral contraceptives, longer mean cycle length and smaller number of gestations all are. In addition, age of menarche, irregular bleeding pattern before the climacterium, length of menstrual cycles and bleedings during the climacterium and postmenopausal status were associated with obesity during the climacterium.

Optimal Cutoff Age for Predicting Mortality Associated with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Patient's age at the time of diagnosis is an important prognostic factor for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) as reflected in various staging and risk stratification systems. However, discrepancies exist among the different staging systems on an optimal cut-off age for predicting the clinical outcome of patients with DTC. To determine the age at diagnosis most predictive of clinical outcomes of DTC, a population-based cohort study was performed composed of 35,323 patients with DTC between 1988 and 2010 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Youden index J was used to determine the most predictive age-at-diagnosis for thyroid-cancer-specific death. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the hazard ratios (HRs) for each age group. With a median follow-up of 5.4 years (range, 0-22.9 years), DTC-associated mortality was 1.5% (n = 533) and the rate of death from overall cause was 7.0% (n = 2482). The optimal cutoff age at diagnosis for thyroid-cancer-specific death was 57. Multivariate analysis found that the age-at-diagnosis is the most prognostic factor for thyroid-cancer-specific death (HR 10.02, 95% CI 8.18-12.28). Age at diagnosis is the most important prognostic factor for DTC patients. Based on our analysis, age at diagnosis of 57 might be the optimal predictor of thyroid-cancer-specific death. This finding might be used as consideration in revision of the risk stratification system for treatment of DTC patients.

Male-female differences in diabetic retinopathy?

The purpose of this paper is to review male-female differences in the incidence and prevalence of diabetes and diabetic retinopathy. These differences will be established primarily through results from our present research and a review of related literature. Previously, we have demonstrated that neuroretinal dysfunction can be used to predict the location of future retinopathy up to three years before it is manifest. Our current research suggests that, for type 2 diabetes, the normal differences in neuroretinal function between nondiabetic males and females under 50 years of age are altered in patients with type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, local neuroretinal function in type 2 diabetes is more abnormal in adult males compared with adult females. The literature also suggests that there are male-female differences in the occurrence of diabetes. In adolescence, the incidence of type 1 diabetes is greater in males, whereas in type 2 diabetes, the incidence is greater in females. This excess of females in type 2 diabetes shifts to a more equal incidence between the two sexes in adults. In addition, advanced retinopathy in type 1 diabetes appears to be more common in males, and the presence and severity of diabetic retinopathy at the time of diagnosis in type 2 diabetes appears to be more associated with male sex. Although the reasons for male-female differences identified in this review are unknown, sex appears to be a significant factor in certain aspects of diabetes incidence and diabetic retinopathy.

New insights in risk stratification of differentiated thyroid cancer

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Numerous staging and scoring systems exist for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), but all harbor limitations. This has prompted investigation for new factors with prognostic implications for DTC.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several new factors that may be involved in DTC risk stratification have emerged, such as thyroid stimulating hormone and molecular markers. In addition, others are controversial and being challenged, such as age, sex and lymph node involvement.

SUMMARY

The purpose of this review is to present recent updates in the literature on new potential risk stratification predictors for DTC.

Differences in neuroretinal function between adult males and females

PURPOSE

To determine whether neuroretinal function differs in healthy adult males and females younger and older than 50 years.

METHODS

This study included one eye from each of 50 normal subjects (29 females and 21 males). Neuroretinal function was assessed using first-order P1 implicit times (ITs) and N1-P1 amplitudes (AMPs) obtained from photopic multifocal electroretinograms. To assess local differences, retinal maps of local IT and (separately) AMP averages were constructed for each subject group. To examine global differences, each subject's 103 ITs and (separately) AMPs were also averaged to create whole-eye averages. Subsequently, retinal maps and whole-eye averages of one subject group were compared with those of another.

RESULTS

In subjects younger than 50 years, neuroretinal function differed significantly between the males and females: local ITs were significantly shorter at 83 of 103 tested retinal locations, and whole-eye IT averages were shorter (p = 0.015) in the males compared with the females. In contrast, no analysis indicated that the males and females older than 50 years were significantly different. A subanalysis showed that the females who reported a hysterectomy (n = 5) had the longest whole-eye ITs of all subject groups (p ≤ 0.0013). In the females who did not report a hysterectomy, neuroretinal function was worse in the females older than 50 years compared with the females younger than 50 years: local ITs were significantly longer at 62 of 103 retinal locations tested, and whole-eye IT averages tended to be greater (p = 0.04). Conversely, ITs were not statistically different between the younger and older males. N1-P1 amplitudes did not differ between the sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Multifocal electroretinogram IT differs between males and females, depending on the age group and hysterectomy status.

Modeling Menstrual Cycle Length and Variability at the Approach of Menopause Using Hierarchical Change Point Models

As women approach menopause, the patterns of their menstrual cycle lengths change. To study these changes, we need to jointly model both the mean and variability of cycle length. Our proposed model incorporates separate mean and variance change points for each woman and a hierarchical model to link them together, along with regression components to include predictors of menopausal onset such as age at menarche and parity. Additional complexity arises from the fact that the calendar data have substantial missingness due to hormone use, surgery, and failure to report. We integrate multiple imputation and time-to event modeling in a Bayesian estimation framework to deal with different forms of the missingness. Posterior predictive model checks are applied to evaluate the model fit. Our method successfully models patterns of women's menstrual cycle trajectories throughout their late reproductive life and identifies change points for mean and variability of segment length, providing insight into the menopausal process. More generally, our model points the way toward increasing use of joint mean-variance models to predict health outcomes and better understand disease processes.

High male chimerism in the female breast shows quantitative links with cancer

Clinical observations suggest that pregnancy provides protection against cancer. The mechanisms involved, however, remain unclear. Fetal cells are known to enter the mother's circulation during pregnancy and establish microchimerism. We investigated if pregnancy-related embryonic/fetal stem cell integration plays a role in breast cancer. A high-sensitivity Y-chromosome assay was developed to trace male allogeneic cells (from male fetus) in females. Fixed-embedded samples (n = 206) from both normal and breast cancer patients were screened for microchimerism. The results were combined with matching clinicopathological and histological parameters and processed statistically. The results show that in our samples (182 informative) more than half of healthy women (56%) carried male cells in their breast tissue for decades (n = 68), while only one out of five in the cancer sample pool (21%) (n = 114) (odds ratio = 4.75, CI at 95% 2.34-9.69; p = 0.0001). The data support the notion that a biological link may exist between chimerism and tissue-integrity. The correlation, however, is non-linear, since male microchimerism in excess ("hyperchimerism") is also involved in cancer. The data suggest a link between hyperchimerism and HER2-type cancers, while decreased chimerism ("hypochimerism") associates with ER/PR-positive (luminal-type) breast cancers. Chimerism levels that correlate with protection appear to be non-random and share densities with the mammary progenitor components of the stem cell lineage in the breast. The results suggest that protection may involve stem/progenitor level interactions and implicate novel quantitative mechanisms in chimerism biology.

Life-course origins of the ages at menarche and menopause

A woman's age at menarche (first menstrual period) and her age at menopause are the alpha and omega of her reproductive years. The timing of these milestones is critical for a woman's health trajectory over her lifespan, as they are indicators of ovarian function and aging. Both early and late timing of either event are associated with risk for adverse health and psychosocial outcomes. Thus, the search for a relationship between age at menarche and menopause has consequences for chronic disease prevention and implications for public health. This article is a review of evidence from the fields of developmental biology, epidemiology, nutrition, demography, sociology, and psychology that examine the menarche-menopause connection. Trends in ages at menarche and menopause worldwide and in subpopulations are presented; however, challenges exist in constructing trends. Among 36 studies that examine the association between the two sentinel events, ten reported a significant direct association, two an inverse association, and the remainder had null findings. Multiple factors, including hormonal and environmental exposures, socioeconomic status, and stress throughout the life course are hypothesized to influence the tempo of growth, including body size and height, development, menarche, menopause, and the aging process in women. The complexity of these factors and the pathways related to their effects on each sentinel event complicate evaluation of the relationship between menarche and menopause. Limitations of past investigations are discussed, including lack of comparability of socioeconomic status indicators and biomarker use across studies, while minority group differences have received scant attention. Suggestions for future directions are proposed. As research across endocrinology, epidemiology, and the social sciences becomes more integrated, the confluence of perspectives will yield a richer understanding of the influences on the tempo of a woman's reproductive life cycle as well as accelerate progress toward more sophisticated preventive strategies for chronic disease.

Hypoestrogenic "inactive phases" at the start of the menstrual cycle: changes with age and reproductive stage, and relationship to follicular depletion

OBJECTIVE

To investigate hypoestrogenic "inactive phases" (IP) in the follicular phase of the menstrual cycle, with respect to age, reproductive stage, and follicular depletion.

DESIGN

Analysis of prospectively collected menstrual bleed and estrone-3-glucuronide data.

SETTING

Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University.

PATIENT(S)

White women (n = 88, aged 25-59 years, mean = 44.7 years) from the population-based Biodemographic Models of Reproductive Aging (BIMORA) project.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

The IP durations by age and reproductive stage. Estimated follicular depletion rate based on IP durations.

RESULT(S)

Mean IP duration and variability decreased and then increased with age/reproductive stage. The proportion of very short (≤ 1 day) IP durations increased and then decreased with age/stage. Long IPs occurred most, but not exclusively, in the oldest age/latest stage. Follicular depletion rate estimates were a plausible 2%-4% per year of age, but these models were a poor fit because IP durations did not consistently increase across ages/stages.

CONCLUSION(S)

Follicular depletion models alone do not explain the observed pattern of IPs. Our data suggest that IPs reflect both follicular depletion and hyperstimulation in premenopausal and perimenopausal women. Knowledge of underlying IP patterns in the menstrual cycle could inform decisions about hormone sampling and contraception during the perimenopause.

The impact of age and gender on papillary thyroid cancer survival

CONTEXT

Thyroid cancer predominately affects women, carries a worse prognosis in older age, and may have higher mortality in men. Superimposed on these observations is the fact that most women have attained menopause by age 55 yr.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to determine whether men contribute disproportionately to papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) mortality or whether menopause affects PTC prognosis.

DESIGN

Gender-specific mortality was normalized using age-matched subjects from the U.S. population. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models incorporating gender, age, and National Thyroid Cancer Treatment Cooperative Study Group stage were used to model disease-specific survival (DSS).

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Patients were followed in a prospective registry.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The relationships between gender, age, and PTC outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for DSS for women was 0.40 [confidence interval (CI) 0.24-0.65]. This female advantage diminished when DSS was adjusted for age at diagnosis and stage with a HR encompassing unity (HR 0.72, CI 0.44-1.19). Additional multivariate models of DSS considering gender, disease stage, and various age groupings showed that the DSS for women diagnosed at under 55 yr was improved over men (HR 0.33, CI 0.13-0.81). However, the HR for DSS increased to become similar to men for women diagnosed at 55-69 yr (HR 1.01, CI 0.42-2.37) and at 70 yr or greater (HR 1.17, CI 0.48-2.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the overall outcome of women with PTC is similar to men, subgroup analysis showed that this composite outcome is composed of two periods with different outcomes. The first period is a period with better outcomes for women than men when the diagnosis occurs at younger than 55 yr; the second is a period with similar outcomes for both women and men diagnosed at ages greater than 55 yr. These data raise the question of whether an older age cutoff would improve current staging systems. We hypothesize that older age modifies the effect of gender on outcomes due to menopause-associated hormonal alterations.

Distinguishing 6 population subgroups by timing and characteristics of the menopausal transition

Changes in women's menstrual bleeding patterns precede the onset of menopause. In this paper, the authors identify population subgroups based on menstrual characteristics of the menopausal transition experience. Using the TREMIN data set (1943-1979), the authors apply a bayesian change-point model with 8 parameters for each woman that summarize change in menstrual bleeding patterns during the menopausal transition. The authors then use estimates from this model to classify menstrual patterns into subgroups using a K-medoids algorithm. They identify 6 subgroups of women whose transition experience can be distinguished by age at onset, variability of the menstrual cycle, and duration of the early transition. These results suggest that for most women, mean and variance change points are well aligned with proposed bleeding markers of the menopausal transition, but for some women they are not clearly associated. Increasing understanding of population differences in the transition experience may lead to new insights into ovarian aging. Because of age inclusion criteria, most longitudinal studies of the menopausal transition probably include only a subset of the 6 subgroups of women identified in this paper, suggesting a potential bias in the understanding of both the menopausal transition and the linkage between the transition and chronic disease.

Weight changes in euthyroid patients undergoing thyroidectomy

BACKGROUND

Thyroidectomized patients frequently report weight gain resistant to weight loss efforts, identifying their thyroidectomy as the event precipitating subsequent weight gain. We wished to determine whether recently thyroidectomized euthyroid patients gained more weight over 1 year than matched euthyroid patients with preexisting hypothyroidism.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective chart review of subjects receiving medical care at an academic medical center. One hundred twenty patients had their weight and thyroid status documented after thyroidectomy and achievement of euthyroidism on thyroid hormone replacement, and one year later. Three additional groups of 120 patients with preexisting hypothyroidism, no thyroid disease, and thyroid cancer were matched for age, gender, menopausal status, height, and weight. Anthropometric data were documented at two time points 1 year apart. We compared the weight changes and body mass index changes occurring over a 1-year period in the four groups.

RESULTS

Patients with recent postsurgical hypothyroidism gained 3.1 kg during the year, whereas matched patients with preexisting hypothyroidism gained 2.2 kg. The patients without thyroid disease and those with iatrogenic hyperthyroidism gained 1.3 and 1.2 kg, respectively. The weight gain in the thyroidectomized group was significantly greater than that in the matched hypothyroid group (p-value 0.004), the group without thyroid disease (p-value 0.001), and the patients with iatrogenic hyperthyroidism (p-value 0.001). Within the thyroidectomized group, the weight gain in menopausal women was greater than in either premenopausal women (4.4 vs. 2.3 kg, p-value 0.007) or men (4.4 vs. 2.5 kg, p-value 0.013).

CONCLUSION

Patients who had undergone thyroidectomy in the previous year did, in fact, gain more weight than their matched counterparts with preexisting hypothyroidism. In addition, all patients with hypothyroidism, even though treated to achieve euthyroidism, experienced more weight gain than both subjects without hypothyroidism and subjects with iatrogenic hyperthyroidism. The greatest weight gain in the thyroidectomized group was in menopausal women. These data raise the question of an unidentified factor related to taking thyroid hormone replacement that is associated with weight gain, with an additional intriguing effect of thyroidectomy itself. Menopausal status confers additional risk. These groups should be targeted for diligent weight loss efforts.

Breast cancer medications and vision: effects of treatments for early-stage disease

This review concerns the effects on vision and the eye of medications prescribed at three phases of treatment for women with early-stage breast cancer (BC): (1) adjuvant cytotoxic chemotherapy, (2) adjuvant endocrine therapy, and (3) symptomatic relief. The most common side effects of cytotoxic chemotherapy are epiphora and ocular surface irritation, which can be caused by any of several different regimens. Most notably, the taxane docetaxel can lead to epiphora by inducing canalicular stenosis. The selective-estrogen-receptor-modulator (SERM) tamoxifen, long the gold-standard adjuvant-endocrine-therapy for women with hormone-receptor-positive BC, increases the risk of posterior subcapsular cataract. Tamoxifen also affects the optic nerve head more often than previously thought, apparently by causing subclinical swelling within the first 2 years of use for women older than ∼50 years. Tamoxifen retinopathy is rare, but it can cause foveal cystoid spaces that are revealed with spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) and that may increase the risk for macular holes. Tamoxifen often alters the perceived color of flashed lights detected via short-wavelength-sensitive (SWS) cone response isolated psychophysically; these altered perceptions may reflect a neural-response sluggishness that becomes evident at ∼2 years of use. The aromatase inhibitor (AI) anastrozole affects perception similarly, but in an age-dependent manner suggesting that the change of estrogen activity towards lower levels is more important than the low estrogen activity itself. Based on analysis of OCT retinal thickness data, it is likely that anastrozole increases the tractional force between the vitreous and retina. Consequently, AI users, myopic AI users particularly, might be at increased risk for traction-related vision loss. Because bisphosphonates are sometimes prescribed to redress AI-induced bone loss, clinicians should be aware of their potential to cause scleritis and uveitis occasionally. We conclude by suggesting some avenues for future research into the visual and ocular effects of AIs, particularly as relates to assessment of cognitive function.

Levothyroxine replacement doses are affected by gender and weight, but not age

BACKGROUND

Body weight (BW) and age have been shown to affect the dose of levothyroxine (LT(4)) that results in normalization of serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) in hypothyroid patients. Our objective was to determine whether gender, menstrual status, and ideal BW (IBW) also affect the LT(4) dose required to achieve a serum TSH within the normal range.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the charts of patients being treated for primary hypothyroidism who had TSH values within a normal range. We selected patients aged 18-85 years who were taking LT(4) without any confounding medications, and who had no serious chronic conditions. Their LT(4) doses, referred to here as LT(4) dose requirements, based on both BW and IBW were documented. The relationship between gender, menstrual status, age, serum TSH concentrations, and the degree of overweight on LT(4) dose requirements were determined using multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Women were significantly more overweight than men (ratio of BW/IBW was 1.35 for women vs. 1.17 for men, p <0.0001). LT(4) requirements based on BW did not differ by gender when age was included in the model. However, when degree of overweight was also included, men required lower LT(4) doses than both premenopausal women (1.34 μg/kg vs. 1.51 μg/kg, p = 0.038) and menopausal women (1.34 μg/kg vs. 1.49 μg/kg, p = 0.023). When examining IBW using a model incorporating age, men also required lower LT(4) doses than both premenopausal women (1.64 μg/kg vs. 1.92 μg/kg, p = 0.0033) and menopausal women (1.64 μg/kg vs. 1.90 μg/kg, p = 0.0024). Serum TSH concentrations were not significantly different in any of the gender groups. There was no relationship between serum TSH and either age or BW. The initial serum TSH concentration was by design with the normal range, but the concentration within that range was not a significant predictor of the LT(4) replacement dose in any of the models.

CONCLUSION

In contrast to previous studies suggesting that age affects LT(4) replacement requirements, we found that age-based differences in doses are secondary to differences in BW and gender. In addition, in contrast to prior studies showing that lean body mass, but not gender, affected LT(4) dose, we instead found a significant impact of gender. Gender-based differences in dose requirement only became apparent either when IBW was used to correct for the dose or when degree of overweight was included in the model. Gender differences in LT(4) dose requirement exist, but are masked unless gender-based differences in degree of overweight are also considered.

Variability in short-wavelength automated perimetry among peri- or postmenopausal women: a dependence on phyto-oestrogen consumption?

PURPOSE

To determine whether the hill of vision for Short-Wavelength Automated Perimetry (SWAP) is shallower for women who consume phyto-oestrogen-rich foods than for women who do not.

METHODS

Visual field data were compared for two groups of healthy amenorrhoeic women 48-69 years-old with normal vision and not using hormone replacement: (1) 24 subjects who reported consuming soy and/or flax products and (2) 20 subjects who reported not consuming these products. Two types of 24-2 visual fields were measured: (1) Full Threshold SWAP and (2) a white-on-white (W/W) field obtained using a Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm (SITA Standard).

RESULTS

The reduction of SWAP sensitivity from the centre of the field (4 loci, mean eccentricity = 4.2°) to the periphery (20 loci, mean eccentricity = 21.9°) was less for soy/flax consumers than for nonconsumers, both with age-referencing (mean difference = 1.7 dB, p = 0.018) and without (p = 0.012). Corresponding distinctions existed for the SWAP - W/W difference, and there was minimal effect for W/W fields alone. The peripheral age-referenced SWAP sensitivities averaged 2.5 dB higher for consumers than nonconsumers (p = 0.022).

CONCLUSION

The between-group distinctions are consistent with the possibility (derived from the women's health literature) that phyto-oestrogens may counteract a decline of short-wavelength-sensitive cone-mediated response among postmenopausal women. These results suggest another potential application for SWAP outside its original intended purpose as a glaucoma test. Future studies should assess whether phyto-oestrogen consumption is most beneficial for women who are sufficiently young and/or not too far beyond menopause.

Life history context of reproductive aging in a wild primate model

The pace of reproductive aging has been of considerable interest, especially in regard to the long postreproductive period in modern women. Here we use data for both sexes from a 37-year longitudinal study of a wild baboon population to place reproductive aging within a life history context for this species, a primate relative of humans that evolved in the same savannah habitat as humans did. We examine the patterns and pace of reproductive aging, including birth rates and reproductive hormones for both sexes, and compare reproductive aging to age-related changes in several other traits. Reproductive senescence occurs later in baboon females than males. Delayed senescence in females relative to males is also found in several other traits, such as dominance status and body condition, but not in molar wear or glucocorticoid profiles. Survival, health, and well-being are the product of risk factors in morphological, physiological, and behavioral traits that differ in rate of senescence and in dependence on social or ecological conditions; some will be very sensitive to differences in circumstances and others less so.

Progesterone and ovulation across stages of the transition to menopause

OBJECTIVE

Detailed characterization of progesterone and ovulation across the menopausal transition provides insight into conception risk and mechanisms of reproductive aging.

METHODS

Participants (n = 108, aged 25-58 y) collected daily urine specimens for 6-month intervals in each of 5 consecutive years. Specimens were assayed for pregnanediol glucuronide (PDG), luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), and estrone glucuronide (E1G). Reproductive stage was determined using cycle length variance. A hierarchical algorithm was used to identify ovulation. Linear mixed-effects models estimated (1) the frequency and day of ovulation by age and stage; (2) differences in FSH, LH, and E1G levels between ovulatory (O) and anovulatory (AO) cycles; and (3) total PDG levels and PDG levels in O cycles by age and stage.

RESULTS

The probability of AO cycles increased across the perimenopause (P < 0.0001); reproductive stage was a stronger predictor than age of the probability of anovulation. Most cycles in late perimenopause were AO (>60%), but one quarter of cycles longer than 60 days were O. Average day of ovulation was later in the late perimenopause (mean [SD] cycle day, 27 [25] d) compared with the premenopause. FSH and LH levels were higher and E1G levels were lower in AO than O cycles (P < 0.0001 for each). Total PDG decreased in the late perimenopause, but 95th percentile PDG in O cycles declined steadily across the transition.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to the risk of conception in women experiencing cycles long enough to classify them as late perimenopausal is far from negligible. Reproductive stage is more informative than age about PDG levels and the likelihood of anovulation.

Ovarian aging: mechanisms and clinical consequences

Menopause is the final step in the process referred to as ovarian ageing. The age related decrease in follicle numbers dictates the onset of cycle irregularity and the final cessation of menses. The parallel decay in oocyte quality contributes to the gradual decline in fertility and the final occurrence of natural sterility. Endocrine changes mainly relate to the decline in the negative feedback from ovarian factors at the hypothalamo-pituitary unit. The declining cohort of antral follicles with age first results in gradually elevated FSH levels, followed by subsequent stages of overt cycle irregularity. The gradual decline in the size of the antral follicle cohort is best represented by decreasing levels of anti-Mullerian hormone. The variability of ovarian ageing among women is evident from the large variation in age at menopause. The identification of women who have severely decreased ovarian reserve for their age is clinically relevant. Ovarian reserve tests have appeared to be fairly accurate in predicting response to ovarian stimulation in the assisted reproductive technology (ART) setting. The capacity to predict the chances for spontaneous pregnancy or pregnancy after ART appears very limited. As menopause and the preceding decline in oocyte quality seem to have a fixed time interval, tests that predict the age at menopause may be useful to assess individual reproductive lifespan. Especially genetic studies, both addressing candidate gene and genome wide association, have identified several interesting loci of small genetic variation that may determine fetal follicle pool development and subsequent wastage of his pool over time. Improved knowledge of the ovarian ageing mechanisms may ultimately provide tools for prediction of menopause and manipulation of the early steps of folliculogenesis for the purpose of contraception and fertility lifespan extension.

Testing ovarian reserve to predict age at menopause

In modern society with women delaying pregnancy, predicting the age of the natural menopause with its preceding infertility will allow making informed choices about when to try starting to have children. Also if premature menopause could be predicted in young women, strategies could be instigated to reduce the long term health risks of early estrogen deficiency. This review examines the physiology of ovarian ageing, with the menopause being the final outcome. Long and short term predictive markers of the age of the menopause and the preceding natural infertility are evaluated. Many subtle changes in the endocrine regulation of ovarian function with advancing age may seem interesting but currently are not clinically useful as a predictive test. Examples are changes in concentrations of estradiol, progesterone, luteinizing hormone (LH) and activin, as well as follicle dynamics. Other features hold more promise. Among these are chronological age, family history, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), poor response to in vitro fertilization (IVF), basal follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and the antral follicle count for long term prediction. For short term prediction, cycle shortening and occurrence of vasomotor symptoms may prove useful. To date, none of these markers has been found to have sufficient predictive accuracy in individual women. Results of new and ongoing longitudinal studies may provide better predictive models. In particular, use of genetic profiles may add to the accuracy of currently known markers.

Chronic discrimination predicts higher circulating levels of E-selectin in a national sample: the MIDUS study

Chronic discrimination in both minority and non-minority populations is linked to adverse health outcomes, including increased risk of cardiovascular disease and increased mortality, but the biological processes through which discrimination affects health are unclear. The current study tested the hypothesis that discrimination in a sample of Caucasians would predict elevated serum levels of E-selectin, an indication of endothelial dysfunction which itself is associated with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease risk. Participants (N=804) in the biomarker sample from the Survey of Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) provided information about experiences of both major and everyday discrimination at two times separated by a 9-10 year interval. The discrimination measures were designed to assess perceived unfair treatment (e.g. being fired unfairly) independently of the perceived reasons for the unfair treatment (e.g. race, gender). Serum E-selectin was measured at the second wave of data collection. Women reported significantly more instances of major (P<0.05) and everyday P<0.001) discrimination than men. Analyses of Covariance (ANCOVA) showed that both greater lifetime exposure to major discrimination (P<0.05) and chronic exposure to everyday discrimination (P<0.05) predicted higher circulating levels of E-selectin, but only in men. These associations remained statistically significant after adjustments for potential confounding variables, including age, race, socioeconomic status, health status, and health behavior. These results highlight a potential biological mechanism by which exposure to unfair treatment may be related to health, particularly cardiovascular function. Moreover, they add to a growing literature suggesting that unfair treatment in general may predict adverse health outcomes.

Total and unopposed estrogen exposure across stages of the transition to menopause

Detailed characterization of estrogen dynamics during the transition to menopause is an important step toward understanding its potential implications for reproductive cancers developing in the transition years. We conducted a 5-year prospective study of endogenous levels of total and unopposed estrogen. Participants (n=108; ages 25-58 years) collected daily urine specimens for 6 months in each of 5 consecutive years. Specimens were assayed for estrone-3-glucuronide (E1G) and pregnanediol-3-glucuronide. Linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate exposure to total and unopposed estrogen by age and reproductive stage. Reproductive stage was estimated using menstrual cycle length variance. E1G mean area under the curve and mean E1G 5th and 95th percentiles represented total estrogen exposure. An algorithm identifying days of above-baseline E1G that coincided with the days of baseline pregnanediol-3-glucuronide was used to identify days of unopposed estrogen. Mean E1G area under the curve increased with age in the pretransition and early transition and decreased in the late transition. Ninety-fifth percentile E1G levels did not decline until after menopause, whereas 5th percentile levels declined from the early transition to the postmenopause. The number of days of unopposed estrogen was significantly higher during the transition compared with the pretransition. Given the length of time women spend in the transition, they are exposed to more total and unopposed estrogen than has been previously appreciated. Coupled with epidemiologic evidence on lifetime exposure to estrogen, these results suggest that variation in the amount of time spent in the transition may be an important risk factor for reproductive cancers.

Hormone therapy and coronary heart disease in young women

OBJECTIVE

Because the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial (WHI RCT) primarily studied older women, it is unresolved whether hormone therapy might prevent coronary heart disease in younger women. Given the similarity between our UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD) study of older women and the WHI RCT, the GPRD methodology was used to study a cohort of younger women.

DESIGN

Women ages 50 to 55 years were investigated using data from the GPRD to simulate the WHI RCT in a manner similar to our initial study of older women. This study compared 30,102 unexposed and 20,654 exposed women treated with conjugated estrogens and norgestrel.

RESULTS

Myocardial infarction was not altered significantly by hormone therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0.91; 95% CI, 0.69-1.20). Stroke, venous thromboembolic events, breast cancer, and hip fracture were similar to both the GPRD study of older women and the WHI RCT. Although death was decreased in the total cohort, similar to older women, it was not altered significantly in a subset without missing covariate data.

CONCLUSION

The similar results of the GPRD studies in younger and older women and between the GPRD and the WHI RCT suggest that hormone therapy does not prevent coronary heart disease in younger postmenopausal women. This study also demonstrates that investigation using a primary care electronic medical record database can expand the generalizability of findings from an RCT.

Lifelong menstrual histories are typically erratic and trending: a taxonomy

OBJECTIVE

Menstrual cycles are composites of complex events; the data describing them are correspondingly rich. We seek to quantitatively represent menstrual histories from menarche to menopause and to evaluate the clinical belief that regular and stable cycle lengths are the most normative histories.

DESIGN

Using prospective data from the Tremin Trust, we classified the menstrual histories of 628 women as very stable (type I), stable but with greater variability in cycle lengths (type II), oscillating and erratic with a downward trend in cycle length (type III), oscillating and erratic with no downward trend in cycle length (type IV), or highly erratic and variable (type V). Classification criteria were created by examining basic summary statistics of menstrual cycle lengths. Specifically, we identified key features describing variability of median cycle length, the mean of the interquartile range, the consistency of the interquartile range, the slope of median cycle lengths, and the number of stable 5-year intervals between ages 15 and 45+.

RESULTS

We present the first characterization of full menstrual histories. Our taxonomy captures the essential features of menstrual bleeding patterns for a heterogeneous population. Persistently stable histories (types I and II) were seen in only 28% of the women; erratic histories (types III through V) characterized 72%. When examining all participants, significant differences were seen in age at menarche (P < 0.05), age at menopause (P < 0.01), and number of births (P < 0.01) between these stable and erratic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although clinicians have traditionally thought of "normal" menstrual histories as being regular and stable, the distribution of women in our five categories suggest that variable histories are most common. Clinically, these results may suggest the need for a paradigm shift in what gynecologists view as normal and abnormal menstrual cycle histories.

Intervention with a low-fat, high-carbohydrate diet does not influence the timing of menopause

BACKGROUND

Later age at menopause is associated with a greater risk of breast cancer. Dietary factors may at least partially influence breast cancer risk through an effect on the age at menopause.

OBJECTIVE

We studied the effect of a low-fat, high-carbohydrate (LFHC) dietary intervention on the timing of menopause in women with greater risk of breast cancer.

DESIGN

The study population included participants from an LFHC dietary intervention trial for the prevention of breast cancer in women with extensive mammographic density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer. Women who were premenopausal at baseline (n = 2611) were followed for an average of 7 y for menopause. Survival analysis was used to compare the time to menopause between the LFHC and control groups and to assess other factors associated with age at menopause.

RESULTS

The LFHC intervention did not affect the time to natural menopause overall (P = 0.72 for log-rank test comparing study groups; n = 699 events). An observed interaction between study group and baseline body mass index (BMI; P = 0.01) indicated that the intervention group experienced earlier menopause than did the control group when BMI was low and that a higher BMI was associated with later menopause in the intervention group only. Greater parity, weight, and education were associated with later menopause, and greater age at first birth and baseline smoking were associated with earlier menopause.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the LFHC dietary intervention did not influence the timing of menopause. Factors associated with age at menopause in this population were consistent with those reported in other populations.

The length of perimenopausal menstrual cycles increases later and to a greater degree than previously reported

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate that the perimenopausal increase in menstrual cycle length presented by Treloar et al. was biased by misidentified menopause dates, mean values classified by calendar year, and exclusion of menstrual cycles straddling two calendar years; and to use the revised data to investigate women's experiences of longer perimenopausal cycles.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of prospectively collected menstrual cycle data.

SETTING

Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University.

PATIENT(S)

One hundred twenty white, college-educated, US women in the Tremin Research Program on Women's Health.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Mean cycle length and time spent in >40-day cycles, by year before menopause.

RESULT(S)

Mean estimates for each of the 4 years before menopause were 30.48, 35.02, 45.15, and 80.22 days, respectively, compared with the original analysis: 33.60, 43.91, 55.87, and 54.58 days. In the year before menopause, the majority of women spent >or=75% of their time in cycles >40 days long.

CONCLUSION(S)

Treloar's estimates of mean cycle length were biased. Long cycles occurred throughout perimenopause, but the largest increase in mean cycle length did not occur until the final year before menopause. New estimates of the time spent in cycles >40 days may be useful clinically as well as epidemiologically for assessing menopausal onset and symptomatology.

Monitoring reproductive aging in a 5-year prospective study: aggregate and individual changes in steroid hormones and menstrual cycle lengths with age

OBJECTIVE

We describe a 5-year prospective study of reproductive aging, and present analyses of steroid hormone and menstrual cycle changes with age.

DESIGN

Participants were college-educated white women, primarily of northern European ancestry, recruited from the Tremin Research Program on Women's Health (n = 156, 25-58 years). In each of 5 consecutive years, they collected daily urine specimens for 6 months and recorded menstrual bleeds for all months. Urine specimens were assayed for estrone-3-glucuronide (E1G) and pregnanediol-3-glucuronide (PDG), urinary metabolites of estradiol and progesterone. Using multilevel models, we estimated hormone and cycle-length trajectories for individual women and within- and between-woman variance by age.

RESULTS

At the aggregate level, PDG declined beginning in the 30s, E1G increased into the 40s before declining, and cycle length became more variable with age. Individual-level models revealed substantial hormonal variation across women, in both absolute levels and rates of change. Most women showed declining E1G by the late 40s, declining PDG in the 30s, and increasing mean cycle length in the 40s. Hormonal variation decreased with age; cycle length variation decreased and then increased. Within individual women, cycle lengths were highly variable while hormone levels were more stable. Women differed more from each other in hormone levels than for cycle lengths.

CONCLUSIONS

Aggregate-level analyses show general changes in steroid hormones and cycle length but cannot show variation within and across women. Individuals' cycle lengths were too variable to predict hormone levels. Clinicians should obtain more data on individual women's hormonal patterns when determining fertility or menopause treatments.

Age at natural menopause in Spain and the United States: results from the DAMES project

Our research was undertaken to determine the median age of natural menopause and correlates of the timing of menopause in Spain and the United States (U.S.). A population-based sample of 300 women from Madrid, Spain and a random sample of 293 women from Fallon Community Health plan (FCHP), a health maintenance organization (HMO) in central Massachusetts, were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. Logit analysis and logistic regression were used to estimate the median age at menopause and identify factors associated with it. The median age of natural menopause in Spain is estimated at 51.7 years, and in the U.S., it is 52.6 years. In Spain, women with any children (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.25, 1.36) and a lower body mass index (BMI) (OR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.27, 0.78) had later ages at menopause while current smokers (OR = 5.51, 95% CI: 1.82, 16.7) had earlier ages of menopause in a multivariate model. A multiplicative interaction between smoking status and parity was identified, and an interaction term included in the multivariate model (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.94). In the U.S., household income, marital status, and education level were statistically associated with age at natural menopause in bivariate models. These factors were no longer statistically significant after adjustments in a multivariate model. Oral contraceptive use, cycle length, and cycle regularity were not statistically associated with the age of menopause in either country. The ages of natural menopause in Spain and the U.S. are comparable to other industrialized nations. The factors associated with the timing of natural menopause, in particular smoking and BMI, are consistent with those identified in previous studies.

Defining menopause status: creation of a new definition to identify the early changes of the menopausal transition

OBJECTIVE

Several menopausal staging definitions are currently being used in ongoing studies designed to identify changes occurring during menopause. The objective of this study was to determine which definition captures the earliest hormonal changes in the menopausal transition.

DESIGN

In this prospective cohort study, women aged 35 to 47 years were followed for 5 years. Women were classified as premenopausal, early transition, late transition, and postmenopausal by 2 different menopausal staging systems defined by bleeding patterns. Definitions from the Study of Women Health Across the Nation (SWAN) and Stages of Reproductive Aging Workshop (STRAW) were compared. A new menopausal staging system (PENN-5) was also developed with five groups rather than four to distinguish among women with more subtle changes in cycle length. For each staging system, a linear regression model was created comparing mean hormone values (inhibin B, FSH, LH, E2) and menopausal stages at each assessment. Race, body mass index, cycle day, smoking, and follow-up time were included in the model.

RESULTS

Statistically significant differences in mean inhibin B and FSH levels, but not estradiol levels, were detected between the earliest menopausal stages of each definition. Significant differences in LH values were detected among the earliest stages of the SWAN and STRAW definitions, but not the PENN-5 definition.

CONCLUSIONS

Subtle changes in menstrual cycle length reflect significant changes in inhibin B and FSH levels during the menopausal transition. Therefore, it appears that subtle changes in bleeding pattern may be helpful in identifying the earliest hormonal changes during menopausal transition.

Irregularity, volatility, risk, and financial market time series

The need to assess subtle, potentially exploitable changes in serial structure is paramount in the analysis of financial data. Herein, we demonstrate the utility of approximate entropy (ApEn), a model-independent measure of sequential irregularity, toward this goal, by several distinct applications. We consider both empirical data and models, including composite indices (Standard and Poor's 500 and Hang Seng), individual stock prices, the random-walk hypothesis, and the Black-Scholes and fractional Brownian motion models. Notably, ApEn appears to be a potentially useful marker of system stability, with rapid increases possibly foreshadowing significant changes in a financial variable.