Methods for characterizing differences in longitudinal glomerular filtration rate changes between children with glomerular chronic kidney disease and those with nonglomerular chronic kidney disease

Longitudinal progression trajectory of estimated glomerular filtration rate in children with chronic kidney disease: results from the KNOW-Ped CKD (KoreaN cohort study for Outcomes in patients With Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease)

BACKGROUND

The natural course of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in children varies according to their underlying conditions. This study aims to identify different patterns of subsequent decline in kidney function and investigate factors associated with different patterns of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the KNOW-Ped CKD (KoreaN cohort study for Outcomes in patients With Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease), which is a longitudinal, prospective cohort study. A latent class linear mixed model was applied to identify the trajectory groups.

RESULTS

In a total of 287 patients, the median baseline eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) was 63.3, and the median age was 11.5 years. The eGFR decline rate was -1.54 during a 6.0-year follow-up. The eGFR trajectory over time was classified into four groups. Classes 1 (n = 103) and 2 (n = 11) had a slightly reduced eGFR at enrollment with a stable trend (ΔeGFR, -0.2/year) and a rapid decline eGFR over time (ΔeGFR, -10.5/year), respectively. Class 3 had a normal eGFR (n = 16), and class 4 had a moderately reduced eGFR (n = 157); both these chasses showed a linear decline in eGFR over time (ΔeGFR, -4.1 and -2.4/year). In comparison with classes 1 and 2, after adjusting for age, causes of primary renal disease, and baseline eGFR, nephrotic-range proteinuria was associated with a rapid decline in eGFR (odds ratio, 8.13).

CONCLUSION

We identified four clinically relevant subgroups of kidney function trajectories in children with CKD. Most children showed a linear decline in eGFR; however, there are different patterns of eGFR trajectories.

FEV1Q: a race-neutral approach to assessing lung function

BACKGROUND

Forced expiratory volume in 1 s quotient (FEV1Q) is a simple approach to spirometry interpretation that compares measured lung function to a lower boundary. This study evaluated how well FEV1Q predicts survival compared with current interpretation methods and whether race impacts FEV1Q.

METHODS

White and Black adults with complete spirometry and mortality data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III and the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database for lung transplant referrals were included. FEV1Q was calculated as FEV1 divided by 0.4 L for females or 0.5 L for males. Cumulative distributions of FEV1 were compared across races. Cox proportional hazards models tested mortality risk from FEV1Q adjusting for age, sex, height, smoking, income and among UNOS individuals, referral diagnosis. Harrell's C-statistics were compared between absolute FEV1, FEV1Q, FEV1/height2, FEV1 z-scores and FEV1 % predicted. Analyses were stratified by race.

RESULTS

Among 7182 individuals from NHANES III and 7149 from UNOS, 1907 (27%) and 991 (14%), respectively, were Black. The lower boundary FEV1 values did not differ between Black and White individuals in either population (FEV1 first percentile difference ≤0.01 L; p>0.05). Decreasing FEV1Q was associated with increasing hazard ratio (HR) for mortality (NHANES III HR 1.33 (95% CI 1.28-1.39) and UNOS HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.12-1.23)). The associations were not confounded nor modified by race. Discriminative power was highest for FEV1Q compared with alternative FEV1 approaches in both Black and White individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

FEV1Q is an intuitive and simple race-neutral approach to interpreting FEV1 that predicts survival better than current alternative methods.

A Drosophila model to screen Alport syndrome COL4A5 variants for their functional pathogenicity

Alport syndrome is a hereditary chronic kidney disease, attributed to rare pathogenic variants in either of three collagen genes (COL4A3/4/5) with most localized in COL4A5. Trimeric type IV Collagen α3α4α5 is essential for the glomerular basement membrane that forms the kidney filtration barrier. A means to functionally assess the many candidate variants and determine pathogenicity is urgently needed. We used Drosophila, an established model for kidney disease, and identify Col4a1 as the functional homolog of human COL4A5 in the fly nephrocyte (equivalent of human podocyte). Fly nephrocytes deficient for Col4a1 showed an irregular and thickened basement membrane and significantly reduced nephrocyte filtration function. This phenotype was restored by expressing human reference (wildtype) COL4A5, but not by COL4A5 carrying any of three established pathogenic patient-derived variants. We then screened seven additional patient COL4A5 variants; their ClinVar classification was either likely pathogenic or of uncertain significance. The findings support pathogenicity for four of these variants; the three others were found benign. Thus, demonstrating the effectiveness of this Drosophila in vivo kidney platform in providing the urgently needed variant-level functional validation.

Development of an adaptive clinical web-based prediction tool for kidney replacement therapy in children with chronic kidney disease

Clinicians need improved prediction models to estimate time to kidney replacement therapy (KRT) for children with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Here, we aimed to develop and validate a prediction tool based on common clinical variables for time to KRT in children using statistical learning methods and design a corresponding online calculator for clinical use. Among 890 children with CKD in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) study, 172 variables related to sociodemographics, kidney/cardiovascular health, and therapy use, including longitudinal changes over one year were evaluated as candidate predictors in a random survival forest for time to KRT. An elementary model was specified with diagnosis, estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria as predictors and then random survival forest identified nine additional candidate predictors for further evaluation. Best subset selection using these nine additional candidate predictors yielded an enriched model additionally based on blood pressure, change in estimated glomerular filtration rate over one year, anemia, albumin, chloride and bicarbonate. Four additional partially enriched models were constructed for clinical situations with incomplete data. Models performed well in cross-validation, and the elementary model was then externally validated using data from a European pediatric CKD cohort. A corresponding user-friendly online tool was developed for clinicians. Thus, our clinical prediction tool for time to KRT in children was developed in a large, representative pediatric CKD cohort with an exhaustive evaluation of potential predictors and supervised statistical learning methods. While our models performed well internally and externally, further external validation of enriched models is needed.

Data quality control in longitudinal epidemiologic studies: conditional studentized residuals from linear mixed effects models for outlier detection in the setting of pediatric chronic kidney disease

PURPOSE

Quality control in longitudinal cohort studies is critical for valid epidemiologic inference. Conditional studentized residuals (CSRs) derived from linear mixed effects models offer efficient individual-specific quality control. We present the utility of CSRs for outlier detection in an applied example using data from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children cohort.

METHODS

Longitudinal linear mixed effects models with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) as the outcome were fit for observations prior to kidney replacement therapy, stratified by nonglomerular or glomerular diagnosis, and for a subset after receiving a kidney transplant. For each model, CSRs were calculated and values ≥±5 were considered potential outliers for further investigation.

RESULTS

A total of 1096 participants contributed 6881 annual measures of GFR across the two diagnostic groups and after transplant. In all models, the fixed effects captured progressive GFR decline. CSRs provided measures of individual-level deviations from the modeled trajectories (random + fixed effects) and were easily visualized in longitudinal plots. A total of 38 potential outliers from 32 participants were detected and further investigated for quality control.

CONCLUSIONS

This example demonstrated how longitudinal models can provide CSRs to detect individual-specific outliers. CSRs should be considered as part of quality control for longitudinal epidemiologic studies.

Associations of body mass index (BMI) and BMI change with progression of chronic kidney disease in children

BACKGROUND

Obesity is prevalent among children with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with cardiovascular disease and reduced quality of life. Its relationship with pediatric CKD progression has not been described.

METHODS

We evaluated relationships between both body mass index (BMI) category (normal, overweight, obese) and BMI z-score (BMIz) change on CKD progression among participants of the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable parametric failure time models depict the association of baseline BMI category on time to kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Additionally, the annualized percentage change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was modeled against concurrent change in BMIz using multivariable linear regression with generalized estimating equations which allowed for quantification of the effect of BMIz change on annualized eGFR change.

RESULTS

Participants had median age of 10.9 years [IQR: 6.5, 14.6], median eGFR of 50 ml/1.73 m2 [IQR: 37, 64] and 63% were male. 160 (27%) of 600 children with non-glomerular and 77 (31%) of 247 children with glomerular CKD progressed to KRT over a median of 5 years [IQR: 2, 8]. Times to KRT were not significantly associated with baseline BMI category. Children with non-glomerular CKD who were obese experienced significant improvement in eGFR (+ 0.62%; 95% CI: + 0.17%, + 1.08%) for every 0.1 standard deviation concurrent decrease in BMI. In participants with glomerular CKD who were obese, BMIz change was not significantly associated with annualized eGFR change.

CONCLUSION

Obesity may represent a target of intervention to improve kidney function in children with non-glomerular CKD. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Comparison of outcomes of chronic kidney disease based on etiology: a prospective cohort study from KNOW-CKD

The causes of chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects its outcomes. However, the relative risks for adverse outcomes according to specific causes of CKD is not well established. In a prospective cohort study from KNOW-CKD, a cohort was analyzed using overlap propensity score weighting methods. Patients were grouped into four categories according to the cause of CKD: glomerulonephritis (GN), diabetic nephropathy (DN), hypertensive nephropathy (HTN), or polycystic kidney disease (PKD). From a total of 2070 patients, the hazard ratio of kidney failure, the composite of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, and the slope of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline according to the cause of CKD were compared between causative groups in a pairwise manner. There were 565 cases of kidney failure and 259 cases of composite CVD and death over 6.0 years of follow-up. Patients with PKD had a significantly increased risk for kidney failure compared to those with GN [Hazard ratio (HR) 1.82], HTN (HR 2.23), and DN (HR 1.73). For the composite outcome of CVD and death, the DN group had increased risks compared to the GN (HR 2.07), and HTN (HR 1.73) groups but not to the PKD group. The adjusted annual eGFR change for the DN and PKD groups were - 3.07 and - 3.37 mL/min/1.73 m² per year, respectively, and all of these values were significantly different than those of the GN and HTN groups (- 2.16 and - 1.42 mL/min/1.73 m² per year, respectively). In summary, the risk of kidney disease progression was relatively higher in patients with PKD compared to other causes of CKD. However, the composite of CVD and death was relatively higher in patients with DN-related CKD than in those with GN- and HTN-related CKD.

Longitudinal changes in uric acid concentration and their relationship with chronic kidney disease progression in children and adolescents

BACKGROUND

Elevated serum uric acid concentration is a risk factor for CKD progression. Its change over time and association with CKD etiology and concomitant changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in children and adolescents are unknown.

METHODS

Longitudinal study of 153 children/adolescents with glomerular (G) and 540 with non-glomerular (NG) etiology from the CKD in Children (CKiD) study. Baseline serum uric acid, change in uric acid and eGFR over time, CKD etiology, and comorbidities were monitored. Adjusted linear mixed-effects regression models quantified the relationship between within-person changes in uric acid and concurrent within-person changes in eGFR.

RESULTS

Participants with stable uric acid over follow-up had CKD progression which became worse for increased baseline uric acid (average annual percentage changes in eGFR were - 1.4%, - 7.7%, and - 14.7% in those with G CKD with baseline uric acid < 5.5 mg/dL, 5.5 - 7.5 mg/dL, and > 7.5 mg/dL, respectively; these changes were - 1.4%, - 4.1%, and - 8.6% in NG CKD). Each 1 mg/dL increase in uric acid over follow-up was independently associated with significant concomitant eGFR decreases of - 5.7% (95%CI - 8.4 to - 3.0%) (G) and - 5.1% (95%CI - 6.3 to - 4.0%) (NG) for those with baseline uric acid < 5.5 mg/dL and - 4.3% (95%CI - 6.8 to - 1.6%) (G) and - 3.3% (95%CI - 4.1 to - 2.6%) (NG) with baseline uric acid between 5.5 and 7.5 mg/dL.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher uric acid levels and increases in uric acid over time are risk factors for more severe progression of CKD in children and adolescents. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Arterial stiffness and blood pressure increase in pediatric kidney transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a measure of arterial stiffness. We investigated PWV and blood pressure (BP) to determine to what extent BP changes contribute to arterial stiffness, and secondly, to identify influencing factors on BP in children after kidney transplantation.

METHODS

Seventy children ≥ 2.5 years post-transplantation with at least two PWV measurements were included. Changes of systolic (Δ SBP) and diastolic BP (Δ DBP) were classified into "stable/decreasing," "1-10 mmHg increase," and " > 10 mmHg increase." Linear mixed modeling for PWV z-score (PWVz) adjusted either for Δ SBP or Δ DBP was performed. An extended dataset with monthly entries of BP, immunosuppression, and creatinine was obtained in 35 participants over a median of 74 months to perform linear mixed modeling for SBP and DBP.

RESULTS

PWVz increased with a rate of 0.11/year (95% CI 0.054 to 0.16). Compared to participants with stable BP, those with 1-10-mmHg SBP and DBP increase showed a higher PWVz of 0.59 (95% CI 0.046 to 1.13) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.43 to 1.30), respectively. A > 10-mmHg BP increase was associated with an even higher PWVz (SBP β = 0.78, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.34; DBP β = 1.37, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.94). Female sex and participants with lower eGFR showed higher PWVz. In the extended analysis, DBP was positively associated with cyclosporin A and everolimus trough levels.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher increase of PWV is seen in patients with greater BP increase, with higher cyclosporin A and everolimus trough levels associated with higher BP. This emphasizes the role of BP as a modifiable risk factor for the improvement of cardiovascular outcome after transplantation. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Dendrimer nanotherapy for severe COVID-19 attenuates inflammation and neurological injury markers and improves outcomes in a phase2a clinical trial

Hyperinflammation triggered by SARS-CoV-2 is a major cause of disease severity, with activated macrophages implicated in this response. OP-101, a hydroxyl-polyamidoamine dendrimer-N-acetylcysteine conjugate that specifically targets activated macrophages, improves outcomes in preclinical models of systemic inflammation and neuroinflammation. In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, adaptive phase 2a trial, we evaluated safety and preliminary efficacy of OP-101 in patients with severe COVID-19. Twenty-four patients classified as having severe COVID-19 with a baseline World Health Organization seven-point ordinal scale of ≥5 were randomized to receive a single intravenous dose of placebo (n = 7 patients) or OP-101 at 2 (n = 6), 4 (n = 6), or 8 mg/kg (n = 5 patients). All study participants received standard of care, including corticosteroids. OP-101 at 4 mg/kg was better than placebo at decreasing inflammatory markers; OP-101 at 4 and 8 mg/kg was better than placebo at reducing neurological injury markers, (neurofilament light chain and glial fibrillary acidic protein). Risk for the composite outcome of mechanical ventilation or death at 30 and 60 days after treatment was 71% (95% CI: 29%, 96%) for placebo and 18% (95% CI: 4%, 43%; P = 0.021) for the pooled OP-101 treatment arms. At 60 days, 3 of 7 patients given placebo and 14 of 17 OP-101-treated patients were surviving. No drug-related adverse events were reported. These data show that OP-101 was well tolerated and may have potential to treat systemic inflammation and neuronal injury, reducing morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19.

Kidney Disease Progression in Children and Young Adults With Pediatric CKD: Epidemiologic Perspectives and Clinical Applications

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression is typically characterized as either time to a clinically meaningful event (such as dialysis or transplant), or longitudinal changes in kidney function. This review describes pediatric kidney disease progression using these two distinct frameworks by reviewing and discussing data from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study. We first describe new equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for patients younger than age 25 years, and how the average of serum creatinine-based and cystatin C-based GFR equations yield valid estimates than either alone. Next, we present a life course description of CKD onset to kidney replacement therapy, prediction models based on clinical measurements, and show the importance of diagnosis (broadly classified as nonglomerular and glomerular in origin), GFR level, and proteinuria on progression. Literature on longitudinal GFR in children and young adults are reviewed and new data are presented to characterize nonlinear changes in estimated GFR in patients younger than age 25 years. These models showed accelerated progression associated with glomerular diagnosis, lower GFR level, and higher proteinuria, which was congruent with time-to-event analyses. Descriptions of online tools for GFR estimation and risk stratification for clinical applications are presented and we offer key epidemiologic considerations for the analysis of longitudinal pediatric CKD studies.

Mean Arterial Pressure and Chronic Kidney Disease Progression in the CKiD Cohort

[Figure: see text].

Timing of patient-reported renal replacement therapy planning discussions by disease severity among children and young adults with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Preparing children with chronic kidney disease (CKD) for renal replacement therapy (RRT) begins with a discussion about transplant and dialysis, but its typical timing in the course of CKD management is unclear. We aimed to describe participant-reported RRT planning discussions by CKD stage, clinical and sociodemographic characteristics, in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) cohort.

METHODS

Participants responded to the question "In the past year, have you discussed renal replacement therapy with your doctor or healthcare provider?" at annual study visits. Responses were linked to the previous year CKD risk stage based on GFR and proteinuria. Repeated measure logistic models estimated the proportion discussing RRT by stage, with modification by sex, age, race, socioeconomic status, and CKD diagnosis (glomerular vs. non-glomerular).

RESULTS

A total of 721 CKiD participants (median age = 12, 62% boys) contributed 2856 person-visits. Proportions of person-visits reporting RRT discussions increased as CKD severity increased (10% at the lowest disease stage and 87% at the highest disease stage). After controlling for CKD risk stage, rates of RRT discussions did not differ by sex, age, race, and socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite participant-reported RRT discussions being strongly associated with CKD severity, a substantial proportion with advanced CKD reported no discussion. While recall bias may lead to underreporting, it is still meaningful that some participants with severe CKD did not report or remember discussing RRT. Initiating RRT discussions early in the CKD course should be encouraged to foster comprehensive preparation and to align RRT selection for optimal health and patient preferences.

Low Serum Bicarbonate and CKD Progression in Children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Studies of adults have demonstrated an association between metabolic acidosis, as measured by low serum bicarbonate levels, and CKD progression. We evaluated this relationship in children using data from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

The relationship between serum bicarbonate and a composite end point, defined as 50% decline in eGFR or KRT, was described using parametric and semiparametric survival methods. Analyses were stratified by underlying nonglomerular and glomerular diagnoses, and adjusted for demographic characteristics, eGFR, proteinuria, anemia, phosphate, hypertension, and alkali therapy.

RESULTS

Six hundred and three participants with nonglomerular disease contributed 2673 person-years of follow-up, and 255 with a glomerular diagnosis contributed 808 person-years of follow-up. At baseline, 39% (237 of 603) of participants with nonglomerular disease had a bicarbonate level of ≤22 meq/L and 36% (85 of 237) of those participants reported alkali therapy treatment. In participants with glomerular disease, 31% (79 of 255) had a bicarbonate of ≤22 meq/L, 18% (14 of 79) of those participants reported alkali therapy treatment. In adjusted longitudinal analyses, compared with participants with a bicarbonate level >22 meq/L, hazard ratios associated with a bicarbonate level of <18 meq/L and 19-22 meq/L were 1.28 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.84 to 1.94] and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.65 to 1.26), respectively, in children with nonglomerular disease. In children with glomerular disease, adjusted hazard ratios associated with bicarbonate level ≤18 meq/L and bicarbonate 19-22 meq/L were 2.16 (95% CI, 1.05 to 4.44) and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.07 to 2.85), respectively. Resolution of low bicarbonate was associated with a lower risk of CKD progression compared with persistently low bicarbonate (≤22 meq/L).

CONCLUSIONS

In children with glomerular disease, low bicarbonate was linked to a higher risk of CKD progression. Resolution of low bicarbonate was associated with a lower risk of CKD progression. Fewer than one half of all children with low bicarbonate reported treatment with alkali therapy. Long-term studies of alkali therapy's effect in patients with pediatric CKD are needed.

Sex and Glomerular Filtration Rate Trajectories in Children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Differences in CKD progression by sex have been hypothesized to explain disparities in access to kidney transplantation in children. This study aims to identify distinct trajectories of eGFR decline and to investigate the association of sex with eGFR decline.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We used data from the CKD in Children study. Latent class mixed models were used to identify eGFR trajectories and patient characteristics were compared between trajectories. Progression was studied to two outcomes: ESKD (dialysis or transplantation) and a combined outcome of ESKD or 50% eGFR decline from baseline, using multivariable parametric failure time models.

RESULTS

Among 888 patients, 613 with nonglomerular and 275 with glomerular diseases, we observed four and two distinct GFR trajectories, respectively. Among patients with nonglomerular diseases, there was a higher proportion of males in the group with a low baseline GFR. This group had an increased risk of ESKD or 50% GFR decline, despite a similar absolute decline in GFR. Eight patients with nonglomerular diseases, mostly males with obstructive uropathies, had a more rapid absolute GFR decline. However, the association between male sex and rapid absolute GFR decline was NS after adjustment for age, baseline GFR, and proteinuria. Among patients with glomerular diseases, a subgroup including mostly females with systemic immunologic diseases or crescentic GN had a rapid absolute GFR decline.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies different trajectories of CKD progression in children and found a faster progression of CKD in females in patients with glomerular diseases, but no significant sex difference in patients with nonglomerular diseases. The differences in progression seem likely explained by sex differences in the underlying primary kidney disease and in baseline GFR rather than by a direct effect of sex on progression.

Nonparametric Assessment of Differences Between Competing Risk Hazard Ratios: Application to Racial Differences in Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease Progression

Associations between an exposure and multiple competing events are typically described by cause-specific hazard ratios (csHR) or subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR). However, diagnostic tools to assess differences between them have not been described. Under the proportionality assumption for both, it can be shown mathematically that the sHR and csHR must be equal, so reporting different time-constant sHR and csHR implies non-proportionality for at least one. We propose a simple, intuitive approach using the ratio of sHR/csHR to nonparametrically compare these metrics. In general, for the non-null case, there must be at least one event type for which the sHR and csHR differ, and the proposed diagnostic will be useful to identify these cases. Furthermore, once standard methods are used to estimate the csHR, multiplying it with our nonparametric estimate for the sHR/csHR ratio will yield estimates of sHR which fulfill intrinsic linkages of the subhazards that separate analysis may violate. In addition, for non-null cases, at least one must be time dependent (i.e., non-proportional), and thus our tool serves as an indirect test of the proportionality assumption. We applied this proposed diagnostic tool to data from a cohort of children with congenital kidney disease to describe racial differences in the time to first dialysis or first transplant and extend methods to include adjustment for socioeconomic factors.

Association of Time-Varying Blood Pressure With Chronic Kidney Disease Progression in Children

IMPORTANCE

Optimal blood pressure (BP) management in children with chronic kidney disease (CKD) slows progression to end-stage renal disease. Studies often base progression risk on a single baseline BP measurement, which may underestimate risk.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether time-varying BP measurements are associated with a higher risk of progression of CKD than baseline BP measurements.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The ongoing longitudinal, prospective cohort study Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKID) recruited children from January 19, 2005, through March 19, 2014, from pediatric nephrology centers across North America, with data collected at annual study visits. Participants included children aged 1 to 16 years with a diagnosis of CKD and a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to 90 mL/min/1.73 m2. Data were analyzed from February 11, 2005, through February 13, 2018.

EXPOSURES

Office BP measurement classified as less than 50th percentile, 50th to less than 90th percentile, or at least 90th percentile. Blood pressure categories were treated as time fixed (baseline) or time varying (updated at each visit) in models.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

A composite renal outcome (50% GFR reduction from baseline, estimated GFR less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, or dialysis or transplant). Pooled logistic models using inverse probability weighting estimated the hazard odds ratio (HOR) of the composite outcome associated with each BP category stratified by CKD diagnosis.

RESULTS

A total of 844 children (524 [62.1%] male; median age, 11 [interquartile range, 8-15] years; 151 [17.9%] black; 580 [68.7%] with nonglomerular CKD; and 264 [31.3%] with glomerular CKD) with complete baseline data and median follow-up of 4 (interquartile range, 2-6) years were included. One hundred ninety-six participants with nonglomerular diagnoses (33.8%) and 99 with glomerular diagnoses (37.5%) reached the composite outcome. Baseline systolic BP in at least the 90th percentile was associated with a higher risk of the composite outcome (HOR for nonglomerular disease, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.07-2.32]; HOR for glomerular disease, 2.85 [95% CI, 1.64-4.94]) compared with baseline systolic BP in less than the 50th percentile. Time-fixed estimates were substantially lower compared with time-varying systolic BP percentile categories (HOR among those with nonglomerular CKD, 3.75 [95% CI, 2.53-5.57]; HOR among those with glomerular diagnoses, 5.96 [95% CI, 3.37-10.54]) comparing those at or above the 90th percentile vs below the 50th percentile. Adjusted models (adjusted for proteinuria and use of antihypertensives) attenuated the risk in nonglomerular CKD (adjusted HOR for baseline measurement, 1.52 [95% CI, 0.98-2.36]; adjusted HOR for time-varying measurement, 2.25 [95% CI, 1.36-3.72]) and in glomerular CKD (adjusted HOR for baseline, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.39-2.36]; adjusted HOR for time-varying measurement, 1.41 [95% CI, 0.65-3.03]). Similar results were observed for diastolic BP.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among children with nonglomerular CKD included in this study, elevated time-varying BP measurements were associated with a greater risk of CKD progression compared with baseline BP measurement. This finding suggests that previous studies using only baseline BP likely underestimated the association between BP and CKD progression.

Incidence of Initial Renal Replacement Therapy Over the Course of Kidney Disease in Children

The Chronic Kidney Disease in Children Study, a prospective cohort study with data collected from 2003 to 2018, provided the first opportunity to characterize the incidence of renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation over the life course of pediatric kidney diseases. In the current analysis, parametric generalized gamma models were fitted and extrapolated for RRT overall and by specific treatment modality (dialysis or preemptive kidney transplant). Children were stratified by type of diagnosis: nonglomerular (mostly congenital; n = 650), glomerular–hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS; n = 49), or glomerular–non-HUS (heterogeneous childhood onset; n = 216). Estimated durations of time to RRT after disease onset for 99% of the nonglomerular and glomerular–non-HUS groups were 42.5 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 31.0, 54.1) and 25.4 years (95% CI: 14.9, 36.0), respectively. Since onset for the great majority of children in the nonglomerular group was congenital, disease duration equated with age. A simulation-based estimate of age at RRT for 99% of the glomerular population was 37.9 years (95% CI: 33.6, 63.2). These models performed well in cross-validation. Children with glomerular disease received dialysis earlier and were less likely to have a preemptive kidney transplant, while the timing and proportions of dialysis and transplantation were similar for the nonglomerular group. These diagnosis-specific estimates provide insight into patient-centered prognostic information and can assist in RRT planning efforts for children with moderate-to-severe kidney disease who are receiving regular specialty care.

Short stature in advanced pediatric CKD is associated with faster time to reduced kidney function after transplant

BACKGROUND

Among children who receive a kidney transplant, short stature is associated with a more complicated post-transplant course and increased mortality. Short stature prior to transplant may reflect the accumulated risk of multiple factors during chronic kidney disease (CKD); however, its relationship with post-transplant kidney function has not been well characterized.

METHODS

In the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) cohort restricted to children who received a kidney transplant, short stature (i.e., growth failure) was defined as age-sex-specific height < 3rd percentile. The outcome was time to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 45 ml/min/1.73 m² after transplant. Parametric survival models, including adjustment for disease severity, socioeconomic status (SES), and parental height by inverse probability weighting, described the relative times to eGFR< 45 ml/min/1.73 m².

RESULTS

Of 138 children (median CKD duration at transplant: 13 years), 20% (28) had short stature before the transplant. The median time to eGFR < 45 ml/min/1.73 m² after kidney transplantation was 6.6 years and those with short stature had a significantly faster time to the poor outcome (log-rank p value 0.004). Children with short stature tended to have lower SES, nephrotic proteinuria, higher blood pressure, and lower mid-parental height before transplant. After adjusting for these variables, children with growth failure had 40% shorter time to eGFR < 45 ml/min/1.73 m² than those with normal stature (relative time 0.60, 95%CI 0.32, 1.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Short stature was associated with a faster time to low kidney function after transplant. SES, disease severity, and parental height partially explained the association. Clinicians should be aware of the implications of growth failure on the outcome of this unique population, while continued attempts are made to define modifiable factors that contribute to this association.

Cardiometabolic Risk Factors, Metabolic Syndrome, and Chronic Kidney Disease Progression in Children

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and examine its association with chronic kidney disease progression in children enrolled in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study.

STUDY DESIGN

MetS was defined as being overweight or obese and having ≥2 cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRFs). Incidence and prevalence of MetS were assessed using pairs of visits approximately 2 years apart.

RESULTS

A total of 799 pairs of person-visits (contributed by 472 children) were included in the final analysis. Of these, 70% had a normal body mass index (BMI), 14% were overweight, and 16% were obese. At the first visit, the prevalence of MetS in the overweight group was 40% and in the obese group was 60%. In adjusted models, annual percent estimated glomerular filtration rate decline in those who had normal BMI and incident or persistent multiple CMRFs or those with persistent MetS was -6.33%, -6.46%, and -6.08% (respectively) compared with children who never had multiple CMRFs (-3.38%, P = .048, .045, and .036, respectively). Children with normal BMI and incident multiple CMRFs and those with persistent MetS had approximately twice the odds of fast estimated glomerular filtration rate decline (>10% per year) compared with those without multiple CMRFs and normal BMI.

CONCLUSION

Children with chronic kidney disease have a high prevalence of MetS. These children as well as those with normal BMI but multiple CMRFs experience a faster decline in kidney function.

Time-varying coefficient of determination to quantify the explanatory power of biomarkers on longitudinal GFR among children with chronic kidney disease

PURPOSE

Coefficients of determination (R²) for continuous longitudinal data are typically reported as time constant, if they are reported at all. The widely used mixed model with random intercepts and slopes yields the total outcome variance as a time-varying function. We propose a generalized and intuitive approach based on this variance function to estimate the time-varying predictive power (R²) of a variable on outcome levels and changes.

METHODS

Using longitudinal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children Study, linear mixed models characterized the R² for two chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk factors measured at baseline: a traditional marker (proteinuria) and a novel marker (fibroblast growth factor 23 [FGF23]).

RESULTS

Time-varying R² divulged different disease processes by risk factor and diagnoses. Among children with glomerular CKD, time-varying R² for proteinuria had significant upward trends, suggesting increasing power to predict eGFR change, but crossed with FGF23, which was higher up to 2.5 years from baseline. In contrast, among those with nonglomerular CKD, proteinuria explained more than FGF23 at all times, and time-varying R² for each risk factor was not substantially different from time-constant estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Proteinuria and FGF23 explained substantial eGFR variability over time. Time-varying R² can characterize predictive roles of risk factors on disease progression, overcome limitations of time-constant estimates, and are easily derived from mixed effects models.

Racial differences in renal replacement therapy initiation among children with a nonglomerular cause of chronic kidney disease

PURPOSE

African American (AA) adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have a faster progression to end-stage renal disease and are less likely to receive a kidney transplant. It is unclear whether AA children experience renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease sooner than non-AA children after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

Among children with nonglomerular CKD in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study, we investigated time to RRT (i.e., first dialysis or transplant) after CKD onset using parametric survival models and accounted for SES differences by inverse probability weights.

RESULTS

Of 110 AA and 493 non-AA children (median age = 10 years), AA children had shorter time to first RRT: median time was 3.2 years earlier than non-AA children (95% CI: -6.1, -0.3). When accounting for SES, this difference was diminished and nonsignificant (-1.6 years; 95% CI: -4.6, +1.5), and its directionality was consistent with faster glomerular filtration rate decline among AA children (-6.2% vs. -4.4% per year, P = .098). When RRT was deconstructed into dialysis or transplant, the time to dialysis was 37.5% shorter for AA children and 53.7% longer for transplant. These inferences were confirmed by the frequency and timing of transplant after initiating dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Racial differences in time to RRT were almost fully accounted for by SES, and the remaining difference was congruent with a faster glomerular filtration rate decline among AA children. Access to transplant occurred later, yet times to dialysis were shorter among AA children even when accounting for SES which may be due to a lack of organ availability.

Organohalogen Contaminants and Vitamins in Northern Fur Seals (Callorhinus ursinus) Collected During Subsistence Hunts in Alaska

During native subsistence hunts from 1987 to 2007, blubber and liver samples from 50 subadult male northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) were collected on St. Paul Island, Alaska. Samples were analyzed for legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), recently phased-out/current-use POPs, and vitamins. The legacy POPs measured from blubber samples included polychlorinated biphenyl congeners, DDT (and its metabolites), chlorobenzenes, chlordanes, and mirex. Recently phased-out/current-use POPs included in the blubber analysis were the flame retardants, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and hexabromocyclododecanes. The chemical surfactants, perfluorinated alkyl acids, and vitamins A and E were assessed in the liver samples. Overall, concentrations of legacy POPs are similar to levels seen in seal samples from other areas of the North Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea. Statistically significant correlations were seen between compounds with similar functions (pesticides, flame retardants, vitamins). With sample collection spanning two decades, the temporal trends in the concentrations of POPs and vitamins were assessed. For these animals, the concentrations of the legacy POPs tend to decrease or stay the same with sampling year; however, the concentrations of the current-use POPs increased with sampling year. Vitamin concentrations tended to stay the same across the sampling years. With the population of northern fur seals from St. Paul Island on the decline, a detailed assessment of exposure to contaminants and the correlations with vitamins fills a critical gap for identifying potential population risk factors that might be associated with health effects.

Longitudinal measures of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in serum of Gullah African Americans in South Carolina: 2003-2013

BACKGROUND

Charleston Harbor has elevated concentrations of PFAS in dolphins, but local human exposure data are limited.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to describe PFAS serum concentrations' temporal trends among Gullah African American residents of coastal South Carolina.

METHODS

Longitudinal measures of PFAS in blood serum from a Gullah clinical sample, without lupus, were examined using spaghetti plots and visit-to-visit change scores (e.g., differences in concentrations between visits) among the 68 participants with repeated measures available. We also modeled population-level trends among the 71 participants with any data using proportionate percentile models, accounting for clustering through robust standard errors. In a post-hoc analysis we examined heterogeneity of temporal trends by age through mixed-effects models for the log-transformed PFAS compounds.

RESULTS

Population concentrations of PFOS dropped approximately 9 (95% CI: 8, 10) percent each year over 2003-2013. This was concordant with individual PFOS trajectories (median PFOS change score -21.7 ng/g wet weight, interquartile range of PFOS change scores: -32.8, -14.9) and reports for other populations over this time period. Several other compounds including PFOA, PFHxS, and PFuNDA also showed a population-level decrease. However, examination of individual trajectories suggested substantial heterogeneity. Post-hoc analyses indicated that PFAS trajectories were heterogeneous by age.

CONCLUSIONS

Many PFAS compounds are decreasing in a sample of Gullah African Americans from coastal South Carolina. There may be age differences in the elimination kinetics of PFASs. The possible role of age as a modifier of PFAS serum trends merits further research.

The effect of abnormal birth history on ambulatory blood pressure and disease progression in children with chronic kidney disease

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations between abnormal birth history (birth weight <2500 g, gestational age <36 weeks, or small for gestational age), blood pressure (BP), and renal function among 332 participants (97 with abnormal and 235 with normal birth history) in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children Study, a cohort of children with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

STUDY DESIGN

Casual and 24-hour ambulatory BP were obtained. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was determined by iohexol disappearance. Confounders (birth and maternal characteristics, socioeconomic status) were used to generate predicted probabilities of abnormal birth history for propensity score matching. Weighted linear and logistic regression models with adjustment for quintiles of propensity scores and CKD diagnosis were used to assess the impact of birth history on BP and GFR.

RESULTS

Age at enrollment, percent with glomerular disease, and baseline GFR were similar between the groups. Those with abnormal birth history were more likely to be female, of Black race or Hispanic ethnicity, to have low household income, or part of a multiple birth. Unadjusted BP measurements, baseline GFR, and change in GFR did not differ significantly between the groups; no differences were seen after adjusting for confounders by propensity score matching.

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormal birth history does not appear to have exerted a significant influence on BP or GFR in this cohort of children with CKD. The absence of an observed association is likely secondary to the dominant effects of underlying CKD and its treatment.

Association of income level with kidney disease severity and progression among children and adolescents with CKD: a report from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Study

BACKGROUND

Among adults, lower socioeconomic status (SES) is a risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD), progression to end-stage renal disease, and poor health outcomes; but its impact on young people with CKD is not established.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTINGS & PARTICIPANTS

572 children and adolescents aged 1-16 years with mild to moderate CKD residing in the United States and Canada who were enrolled in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Study.

PREDICTOR

Self-reported annual household income category as a proxy measure for SES: ≥$75,000 (high income), $30,000 to <$75,000 (middle income) and <$30,000 (low income).

OUTCOMES & MEASUREMENTS

Clinical characteristics and CKD severity at baseline (glomerular filtration rate [GFR] and comorbid conditions related to disease severity and management) and longitudinally (GFR decline and changes in blood pressure z scores and height z scores per year).

RESULTS

At baseline, low and middle household incomes, compared to high income, were associated with minority race (39% and 20% vs. 7%), lower maternal education (28% and 5% vs. 1%), abnormal birth history (34% and 32% vs. 21%), and having at least one clinical comorbid condition (66% and 64% vs. 55%). Baseline median GFRs were similar across income categories (43-45 mL/min/1.73 m2). After adjusting for baseline differences, average GFR declines per year for the low-, middle-, and high-income categories were -2.3%, -2.7%, and -1.9%, respectively, and were not statistically significantly different among groups. Blood pressure control tended to improve in all groups (z score, -0.10 to -0.04) but higher income was associated with a faster improvement. Each group showed similar deficits in height at baseline. Height deficits diminished over time for participants from high-income families, but not among those from low-income families (z scores for height per year, 0.05 and -0.004, respectively; P = 0.03 for comparison of high and low income).

LIMITATIONS

Income is an imperfect measure for SES; CKiD participants are not representative of children and adolescents with CKD who are uninsured or not receiving care; statistical power to detect associations by income level is limited.

CONCLUSIONS

GFR decline was similar across income groups but better improvement in BP was observed among those with high income. Children and adolescents with CKD from lower income households are at higher risk of impaired growth.

Insights from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) study

Over the last 5 years, the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) prospective cohort study has enrolled close to 600 children ages 1 to 16 years with mild to moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD). The main purpose of this interim report is to review the initial cross-sectional data and conclusions derived from the clinical studies conducted within CKiD in the context of findings from other pediatric CKD and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) registry and cohort studies. In particular, special emphasis was placed on studying four aspects of chronic kidney disease in children, including the identification of risk factors related to disease progression, the impact of CKD on neurocognition and quality of life (QoL), the cardiovascular morbidity associated with CKD, and identifying the causes and effects of growth failure in the context of mild to moderate kidney failure.