Comparing fruiting phenology across two historical datasets: Thoreau's observations and herbarium specimens

Better soon than never: climate change induces strong phenological reassembly in the flowering of a Mediterranean shrub community

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Flowering is a key process in the life cycle of a plant. Climate change is shifting flowering phenologies in the Northern Hemisphere, but studies with long data series at the community level are scarce, especially those considering the consequences of phenological changes for emerging ecological interactions. In the Mediterranean region, the effects of climate change are stronger than the global average and there is an urgent need to understand how biodiversity will be affected in this area.

METHODS

In this study, we investigated how the entire flowering phenology of a community comprising 51 perennial species from the south of the Iberian Peninsula changed from the decade of the 1980s to the 2020s. Furthermore, we have analysed the consequences of these changes for flowering order and co-flowering patterns.

KEY RESULTS

We have found that the flowering phenology of the community has advanced by ~20 days, which is coherent with the increasing temperatures related to climate change. Individual species have generally advanced their entire flowering phenology (start and end) and increased their flowering duration. The early flowering has resulted in a re-organization of the flowering order of the community and generated new co-flowering assemblages of species, with a slight trend towards an increase of shared flowering time among species.

CONCLUSIONS

The advanced flowering phenology and changes in flowering duration reported here were of unprecedented magnitude, showcasing the extreme effects of climate change on Mediterranean ecosystems. Furthermore, the effects were not similar among species, which could be attributed to differences in sensitivities of environmental cues for flowering. One consequence of these changes in flowering times is ecological mismatches, indicated by changes in the flowering order and co-flowering between decades. This new scenario might lead to new competitive or facilitative interactions and to the loss or gain of pollinators.

Radical shift in the genetic composition of New England chicory populations

Human activities have been altering the flora and fauna across the planet. Distributions and the diversity of species, and the phenotypes of individuals in those species are changing. New England with its rapidly changing human demographics is an ideal place to investigate these temporal changes in the habitat. The flora of New England consists of both native and nonnative species. Non-indigenous plant species have been introduced since the first Europeans arrived in North America in the 15th century. Cichorium intybus (chicory), native to Eurasia, was first recorded in North America in 1774. Subsequently, chicory spread and became naturalized throughout much of the continent.In this study, we used chloroplast DNA sequences and 12 microsatellite nuclear markers to assess the temporal genetic changes in New England populations of chicory. We analysed 84 herbarium specimens and 18 contemporary extant populations (228 individuals in total).Three chloroplast DNA haplotypes were detected and all were present in New England prior to 1890; however, Hap3 was rare prior to the 1950s. The nuclear DNA markers showed a major shift in the genetic diversity and composition, with all historical herbarium collections belonging to a single genetic cluster and 16 out of 18 contemporary chicory populations belonging to different genetic clusters. This change occurred regionally and also on a local scale with contemporary populations being very different from herbarium specimens collected previously in the corresponding localities. Synthesis. Our results indicate that the genetic diversity and structure of Cichorium intybus populations have changed substantially since the founding populations in New England. These changes may have contributed to the success of this nonnative species and helped to fuel its rapid expansion and adaptation to the changing landscapes in both New England and the rest of North America.

Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale

PREMISE

Phenological sensitivity, or the degree to which a species' phenology shifts in response to warming, is an important parameter for comparing and predicting species' responses to climate change. Phenological sensitivity is often measured using herbarium specimens or local studies in natural populations. These approaches differ widely in spatiotemporal scales, yet few studies explicitly consider effects of the geographic extent and resolution of climate data when comparing phenological sensitivities quantified from different data sets for a given species.

METHODS

We compared sensitivity of flowering phenology to growing degree days of the alpine plant Silene acaulis using two data sets: herbarium specimens and a 6 yr observational study in four populations at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We investigated differences in phenological sensitivity obtained using variable spatial scales and climate data sources.

RESULTS

Herbarium specimens underestimated phenological sensitivity compared to observational data, even when herbarium samples were limited geographically or to nearby weather station data. However, when observational data were paired with broader-scale climate data, as is typically used in herbarium data sets, estimates of phenological sensitivity were more similar.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the potential for variation in data source, geographic scale, and accuracy of macroclimate data to produce very different estimates of phenological responses to climate change. Accurately predicting phenological shifts would benefit from comparisons between methods that estimate climate variables and phenological sensitivity over a variety of spatial scales.

Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature

Temperate understory plant species are at risk from climate change and anthropogenic threats that include increased deer herbivory, habitat loss, pollinator declines and mismatch, and nutrient pollution. Recent work suggests that spring ephemeral wildflowers may be at additional risk due to phenological mismatch with deciduous canopy trees. The study of this dynamic, commonly referred to as "phenological escape", and its sensitivity to spring temperature is limited to eastern North America. Here, we use herbarium specimens to show that phenological sensitivity to spring temperature is remarkably conserved for understory wildflowers across North America, Europe, and Asia, but that canopy trees in North America are significantly more sensitive to spring temperature compared to in Asia and Europe. We predict that advancing tree phenology will lead to decreasing spring light windows in North America while spring light windows will be maintained or even increase in Asia and Europe in response to projected climate warming.

Was Henry David Thoreau a Good Naturalist? An Approach for Assessing Data from Historical Natural History Records

Ecologists are increasingly combining historical observations made by naturalists with modern observations to detect the ecological effects of climate change. This use of historical observations raises the following question: How do we know that historical data are appropriate to use to answer current ecological questions? In the present article, we address this question for environmental philosopher Henry David Thoreau, author of Walden. Should we trust his observations? We qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate Thoreau's observations using a three-step framework: We assess the rigor, accuracy, and utility of his observations to investigate changes in plants and animals over time. We conclude that Thoreau was an accurate observer of nature and a reliable scientist. More importantly, we describe how this simple three-step approach could be used to assess the accuracy of other scientists and naturalists.

Forest wildflowers bloom earlier as Europe warms: lessons from herbaria and spatial modelling

Today plants often flower earlier due to climate warming. Herbarium specimens are excellent witnesses of such long-term changes. However, the magnitude of phenological shifts may vary geographically, and the data are often clustered. Therefore, large-scale analyses of herbarium data are prone to pseudoreplication and geographical biases. We studied over 6000 herbarium specimens of 20 spring-flowering forest understory herbs from Europe to understand how their phenology had changed during the last century. We estimated phenology trends with or without taking spatial autocorrelation into account. On average plants now flowered over 6 d earlier than at the beginning of the last century. These changes were strongly associated with warmer spring temperatures. Flowering time advanced 3.6 d per 1°C warming. Spatial modelling showed that, in some parts of Europe, plants flowered earlier or later than expected. Without accounting for this, the estimates of phenological shifts were biased and model fits were poor. Our study indicates that forest wildflowers in Europe strongly advanced their phenology in response to climate change. However, these phenological shifts differ geographically. This shows that it is crucial to combine the analysis of herbarium data with spatial modelling when testing for long-term phenology trends across large spatial scales.

A comparison of herbarium and citizen science phenology datasets for detecting response of flowering time to climate change in Denmark

Phenology has emerged as a key metric to measure how species respond to changes in climate. Innovative means have been developed to extend the temporal and spatial range of phenological data by obtaining data from herbarium specimens, citizen science programs, and biodiversity data repositories. These different data types have seldom been compared for their effectiveness in detecting environmental impacts on phenology. To address this, we compare three separate phenology datasets from Denmark: (i) herbarium specimen data spanning 145 years, (ii) data collected from a citizen science phenology program over a single year observing first flowering, and (iii) data derived from incidental biodiversity observations in iNaturalist over a single year. Each dataset includes flowering day of year observed for three common spring-flowering plant species: Allium ursinum (ramsons), Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut), and Sambucus nigra (black elderberry). The incidental iNaturalist dataset provided the most extensive geographic coverage across Denmark and the largest sample size and recorded peak flowering in a way comparable to herbarium specimens. The directed citizen science dataset recorded much earlier flowering dates because the program objective was to report the first flowering, and so was less compared to the other two datasets. Herbarium data demonstrated the strongest effect of spring temperature on flowering in Denmark, possibly because it was the only dataset measuring temporal variation in phenology, while the other datasets measured spatial variation. Herbarium data predicted the mean flowering day of year recorded in our iNaturalist dataset for all three species. Combining herbarium data with iNaturalist data provides an even more effective method for detecting climatic effects on phenology. Phenology observations from directed and incidental citizen science initiatives will increase in value for climate change research in the coming years with the addition of data capturing the inter-annual variation in phenology.

Substantial shifts in flowering phenology of Sternbergia vernalis in the Himalaya: Supplementing decadal field records with historical and experimental evidences

In an age of anthropocene, shifting plant phenology is one of the most striking biological indicators of global environmental change. Majority of the studies reporting shifts in plant phenology are available from the North America and Europe and largely scarce from the developing world, including the Himalaya; and studies integrating multiple methodological approaches to investigate the climate-driven phenological shifts are too rare. Here, we report the shifts in spring flowering phenology of model plant species, Sternbergia vernalis in response to the changing climate in Kashmir Himalaya, by integrating decadal field observational records with long-term herbarium and dated-photograph data, and supported with experimental evidences. Our results revealed a significant increasing trend of 0.038, 0.016 and 0.023 °C/year in the annual mean maximum temperature (T_max), mean minimum temperature (T_min) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) respectively; but an insignificant decreasing trend in annual precipitation of -1.24 mm/year over the last four decades (1980-2019) in this Himalayan region. The flowering phenology of S. vernalis has significantly advanced by 11.8 days/°C and 27.8 days/°C increase in T_max and T_min respectively, indicating that the climate warming has led to substantial shifts in flowering phenology of the model plant species. We also observed a strong association of seasonal T_max (December-February) and DTR on the early onset of spring flowering, however precipitation had no significant effect on the timing of flowering. The greenhouse experiment results further supported a significant effect of temperature in triggering the phenological shifts, wherein the model plant grown under different temperature treatments flowered 9-20 days earlier compared to the control. Our study showcases the integrated use of multiple methodological approaches for unravelling the long-term phenological shifts in response to climate change, and contributes in filling the knowledge gaps in the phenological research from the developing world in general and the Himalaya in particular.

Coping with eccentricities of natural history collection data. A commentary on: 'Comparing fruiting phenology across two historical datasets: Thoreau's observations and herbarium specimens'

This article comments on: Tara K. Miller1, Amanda S. Gallinat, Linnea C. Smith and Richard B. Primack, Comparing fruiting phenology across two historical datasets: Thoreau’s observations and herbarium specimens, Annals of Botany, Volume 128, Issue 2, 23 July 2021, Pages 159–170, 10.1093/aob/mcab019