A mixture model for determining SARS-Cov-2 variant composition in pooled samples

Wastewater surveillance of open drains for mapping the trajectory and succession of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in 23 cities of Maharashtra state (India) during June 2022 to May 2023

The timely detection of SARS-CoV-2 is crucial for controlling its spread, especially in areas vulnerable to outbreaks. However, due to a lack of sustainable and low cost methods, early detection of such outbreaks is impacting low to middle-income countries (LMICs). Leveraging Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE), we examined the dissemination and evolution of the SARS CoV2 virus in open drains across urban, suburban and densely populated cities in selected regions in the state of Maharashtra, the third largest state of India. In the period from June 2022 to May 2023, 44.89 % of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were positive in RT-qPCR in wastewater samples collected from open drains across selected regions. Whole genome sequencing revealed 22 distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages, with the Omicron variant, followed by the XBB variant, dominating, alongside other variants such as BF, BQ, CH, and BA.2.86, albeit with lower frequencies. Wastewater surveillance provided early insights into viral transmission, complementing clinical surveillance. Notably, our study detected emerging variants prior to clinical reporting, highlighting the potential of WBE for early detection. Findings underscore the correlation between population density and the trend of viral load. This study also highlighted the significance of using open drains for WBE as a low-cost, and sustainable tool, especially in LMICs, where adequate methods are lacking or difficult to deploy for accessibility.

Wastewater surveillance in post-omicron silent phase uncovers silent waves and cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants; a yearlong study in Western India

Due to reduced clinical testing and evolving monitoring challenges, tracking the emergence and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants has become increasingly complex. To address this gap, we investigated the utility of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as a complementary tool for SARS-CoV-2 variant surveillance in sewage treatment plants (STPs) across Pune, India. We analyzed 1128 wastewater samples collected between May 2022 and May 2023, using Illumina and nanopore sequencing techniques for robust detection and variant characterization. The study revealed critical findings, including "silent waves" with elevated viral load despite minimal clinical cases, suggesting potential cryptic transmission. These silent waves aligned with the dominance of Omicron BA.2 in June-July 2022 and emergence of the recombinant XBB clade in December 2022. Importantly, sequencing detected XBB lineages 130-253 days before their initial clinical identification, demonstrating its significant advantage in early variant detection. Furthermore, wastewater analysis revealed a higher degree of lineage diversity compared to clinical data, indicating its ability to capture a broader spectrum of circulating variants. The BA.2.86.X was identified 103 days prior to its clinical detection in Pune, highlighting WBE's remarkable lead time. Surprisingly, BF.7.X and BQ.X fragments were also detected in wastewater but not yet reported clinically. These findings demonstrate the remarkable value of WBE as an early warning tool for SARS-CoV-2 variants ahead of time. By revealing silent waves, enabling early variant detection, and capturing a broader viral spectrum, WBE effort could empower public health officials to make informed decisions and implement effective strategies to mitigate future waves, especially in contexts with declining clinical testing.

Assessing different next-generation sequencing technologies for wastewater-based epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology has proven to be an important public health asset during the COVID-19 pandemic. It can provide less biassed and more cost-effective population-level monitoring of the disease burden as compared to clinical testing. An essential component of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring is next-generation sequencing, providing genomic data to identify and quantify circulating viral strains rapidly. However, the specific choice of sequencing method influences the quality and timeliness of generated data and hence its usefulness for wastewater-based pathogen surveillance. Here, we systematically benchmarked Illumina Novaseq 6000, Element Aviti, ONT R9.4.1 MinION flow cell, and ONT R9.4.1 Flongle flow cell sequencing data to facilitate the selection of sequencing technology. Using a time series of wastewater samples from influent of six wastewater treatment plants throughout Switzerland, along with spike-in experiments, we show that higher sequencing error rates of ONT Nanopore sequencing reduce the accuracy of estimates of the relative abundance of viral variants, but the overall trend is in good concordance among all technologies. We find that the sequencing runtime for ONT Nanopore flow cells can be reduced to as little as five hours without significant impact on the quality of variant estimates. Our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 variant tracking is readily achievable with all tested technologies, albeit with different tradeoffs in terms of cost, timeliness and accuracy.

Rapid SARS-CoV-2 surveillance using clinical, pooled, or wastewater sequence as a sensor for population change

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical role of genomic surveillance for guiding policy and control. Timeliness is key, but sequence alignment and phylogeny slow most surveillance techniques. Millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been assembled. Phylogenetic methods are ill equipped to handle this sheer scale. We introduce a pangenomic measure that examines the information diversity of a k-mer library drawn from a country's complete set of clinical, pooled, or wastewater sequence. Quantifying diversity is central to ecology. Hill numbers, or the effective number of species in a sample, provide a simple metric for comparing species diversity across environments. The more diverse the sample, the higher the Hill number. We adopt this ecological approach and consider each k-mer an individual and each genome a transect in the pangenome of the species. Structured in this way, Hill numbers summarize the temporal trajectory of pandemic variants, collapsing each day's assemblies into genome equivalents. For pooled or wastewater sequence, we instead compare days using survey sequence divorced from individual infections. Across data from the UK, USA, and South Africa, we trace the ascendance of new variants of concern as they emerge in local populations well before these variants are named and added to phylogenetic databases. Using data from San Diego wastewater, we monitor these same population changes from raw, unassembled sequence. This history of emerging variants senses all available data as it is sequenced, intimating variant sweeps to dominance or declines to extinction at the leading edge of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A gold standard dataset and evaluation of methods for lineage abundance estimation from wastewater

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, genome-based wastewater surveillance sequencing has been a powerful tool for public health to monitor circulating and emerging viral variants. As a medium, wastewater is very complex because of its mixed matrix nature, which makes the deconvolution of wastewater samples more difficult. Here we introduce a gold standard dataset constructed from synthetic viral control mixtures of known composition, spiked into a wastewater RNA matrix and sequenced on the Oxford Nanopore Technologies platform. We compare the performance of eight of the most commonly used deconvolution tools in identifying SARS-CoV-2 variants present in these mixtures. The software evaluated was primarily chosen for its relevance to the CDC wastewater surveillance reporting protocol, which until recently employed a pipeline that incorporates results from four deconvolution methods: Freyja, kallisto, Kraken 2/Bracken, and LCS. We also tested Lollipop, a deconvolution method used by the Swiss SARS-CoV-2 Sequencing Consortium, and three additional methods not used in the C-WAP pipeline: lineagespot, Alcov, and VaQuERo. We found that the commonly used software Freyja outperformed the other CDC pipeline tools in correct identification of lineages present in the control mixtures, and that the VaQuERo method was similarly accurate, with minor differences in the ability of the two methods to avoid false negatives and suppress false positives. Our results also provide insight into the effect of the tiling primer scheme and wastewater RNA extract matrix on viral sequencing and data deconvolution outcomes.

SWAMPy: simulating SARS-CoV-2 wastewater amplicon metagenomes

MOTIVATION

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants through genomic sequencing has been an important part of the global response to the pandemic and remains a useful tool for surveillance of the virus. As well as whole-genome sequencing of clinical samples, this surveillance effort has been aided by amplicon sequencing of wastewater samples, which proved effective in real case studies. Because of its relevance to public healthcare decisions, testing and benchmarking wastewater sequencing analysis methods is also crucial, which necessitates a simulator. Although metagenomic simulators exist, none is fit for the purpose of simulating the metagenomes produced through amplicon sequencing of wastewater.

RESULTS

Our new simulation tool, SWAMPy (Simulating SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Amplicon Metagenomes with Python), is intended to provide realistic simulated SARS-CoV-2 wastewater sequencing datasets with which other programs that rely on this type of data can be evaluated and improved. Our tool is suitable for simulating Illumina short-read RT-PCR amplified metagenomes.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The code for this project is available at https://github.com/goldman-gp-ebi/SWAMPy. It can be installed on any Unix-based operating system and is available under the GPL-v3 license.

Online dashboards for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based epidemiology

Aim: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is increasingly used to monitor pandemics. In this manuscript, we review methods and limitations of WBE, as well as their online dashboards. Materials & methods: Online dashboards were retrieved using PubMed and search engines, and annotated for timeliness, availability of English version, details on SARS-CoV-2 sublineages, normalization by population and PPMoV load, availability of case/hospitalization count charts and of raw data for export. Results: We retrieved 51 web portals, half of them from Europe. Africa is represented from South Africa only, and only seven portals are available from Asia. Conclusion: WBS provides near-real-time cost-effective monitoring of analytes across space and time in populations. However, tremendous heterogeneity still persists in the SARS-CoV-2 WBE literature.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in wastewater: an assessment of nine computational tools using simulated genomic data

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) is an important epidemiological and public health tool for tracking pathogens across the scale of a building, neighbourhood, city, or region. WBS gained widespread adoption globally during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic for estimating community infection levels by qPCR. Sequencing pathogen genes or genomes from wastewater adds information about pathogen genetic diversity, which can be used to identify viral lineages (including variants of concern) that are circulating in a local population. Capturing the genetic diversity by WBS sequencing is not trivial, as wastewater samples often contain a diverse mixture of viral lineages with real mutations and sequencing errors, which must be deconvoluted computationally from short sequencing reads. In this study we assess nine different computational tools that have recently been developed to address this challenge. We simulated 100 wastewater sequence samples consisting of SARS-CoV-2 BA.1, BA.2, and Delta lineages, in various mixtures, as well as a Delta-Omicron recombinant and a synthetic 'novel' lineage. Most tools performed well in identifying the true lineages present and estimating their relative abundances and were generally robust to variation in sequencing depth and read length. While many tools identified lineages present down to 1 % frequency, results were more reliable above a 5 % threshold. The presence of an unknown synthetic lineage, which represents an unclassified SARS-CoV-2 lineage, increases the error in relative abundance estimates of other lineages, but the magnitude of this effect was small for most tools. The tools also varied in how they labelled novel synthetic lineages and recombinants. While our simulated dataset represents just one of many possible use cases for these methods, we hope it helps users understand potential sources of error or bias in wastewater sequencing analysis and to appreciate the commonalities and differences across methods.

Early Detection of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants from Urban and Rural Wastewater through Genome Sequencing and Machine Learning

Genome sequencing from wastewater has emerged as an accurate and cost-effective tool for identifying SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, existing methods for analyzing wastewater sequencing data are not designed to detect novel variants that have not been characterized in humans. Here, we present an unsupervised learning approach that clusters co-varying and time-evolving mutation patterns leading to the identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants. To build our model, we sequenced 3,659 wastewater samples collected over a span of more than two years from urban and rural locations in Southern Nevada. We then developed a multivariate independent component analysis (ICA)-based pipeline to transform mutation frequencies into independent sources with co-varying and time-evolving patterns and compared variant predictions to >5,000 SARS-CoV-2 clinical genomes isolated from Nevadans. Using the source patterns as data-driven reference "barcodes", we demonstrated the model's accuracy by successfully detecting the Delta variant in late 2021, Omicron variants in 2022, and emerging recombinant XBB variants in 2023. Our approach revealed the spatial and temporal dynamics of variants in both urban and rural regions; achieved earlier detection of most variants compared to other computational tools; and uncovered unique co-varying mutation patterns not associated with any known variant. The multivariate nature of our pipeline boosts statistical power and can support accurate and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. This feature offers a unique opportunity for novel variant and pathogen detection, even in the absence of clinical testing.

Lessons learned: overcoming common challenges in reconstructing the SARS-CoV-2 genome from short-read sequencing data via CoVpipe2

Background

Accurate genome sequences form the basis for genomic surveillance programs, the added value of which was impressively demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic by tracing transmission chains, discovering new viral lineages and mutations, and assessing them for infectiousness and resistance to available treatments. Amplicon strategies employing Illumina sequencing have become widely established for variant detection and reference-based reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 genomes, and are routine bioinformatics tasks. Yet, specific challenges arise when analyzing amplicon data, for example, when crucial and even lineage-determining mutations occur near primer sites.

Methods

We present CoVpipe2, a bioinformatics workflow developed at the Public Health Institute of Germany to reconstruct SARS-CoV-2 genomes based on short-read sequencing data accurately. The decisive factor here is the reliable, accurate, and rapid reconstruction of genomes, considering the specifics of the used sequencing protocol. Besides fundamental tasks like quality control, mapping, variant calling, and consensus generation, we also implemented additional features to ease the detection of mixed samples and recombinants.

Results

We highlight common pitfalls in primer clipping, detecting heterozygote variants, and dealing with low-coverage regions and deletions. We introduce CoVpipe2 to address the above challenges and have compared and successfully validated the pipeline against selected publicly available benchmark datasets. CoVpipe2 features high usability, reproducibility, and a modular design that specifically addresses the characteristics of short-read amplicon protocols but can also be used for whole-genome short-read sequencing data.

Conclusions

CoVpipe2 has seen multiple improvement cycles and is continuously maintained alongside frequently updated primer schemes and new developments in the scientific community. Our pipeline is easy to set up and use and can serve as a blueprint for other pathogens in the future due to its flexibility and modularity, providing a long-term perspective for continuous support. CoVpipe2 is written in Nextflow and is freely accessible from \href{https://github.com/rki-mf1/CoVpipe2}{github.com/rki-mf1/CoVpipe2} under the GPL3 license.

Systematic SARS-CoV-2 S-gene sequencing in wastewater samples enables early lineage detection and uncovers rare mutations in Portugal

As the COVID-19 pandemic reached its peak, many countries implemented genomic surveillance systems to track the evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Transition from the pandemic to the endemic phase prioritized alternative testing strategies to maintain effective epidemic surveillance at the population level, with less intensive sequencing efforts. One such promising approach was Wastewater-Based Surveillance (WBS), which offers non-invasive, cost-effective means for analysing virus trends at the sewershed level. From 2020 onwards, wastewater has been recognized as an instrumental source of information for public health, with national and international authorities exploring options to implement national wastewater surveillance systems and increasingly relying on WBS as early warning of potential pathogen outbreaks. In Portugal, several pioneer projects joined the academia, water utilities and Public Administration around WBS. To validate WBS as an effective genomic surveillance strategy, it is crucial to collect long term performance data. In this work, we present one year of systematic SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in Portugal, representing 35 % of the mainland population. We employed two complementary methods for lineage determination - allelic discrimination by RT-PCR and S-gene sequencing. This combination allowed us to monitor variant evolution in near-real-time and identify low-frequency mutations. Over the course of this year-long study, spanning from May 2022 to April 2023, we successfully tracked the dominant Omicron sub-lineages, their progression and evolution, which aligned with concurrent clinical surveillance data. Our results underscore the effectiveness of WBS as a tracking system for virus variants, with the ability to unveil mutations undetected via massive sequencing of clinical samples from Portugal, demonstrating the ability of WBS to uncover new mutations and detect rare genetic variants. Our findings emphasize that knowledge of the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 at the population level can be extended far beyond via the combination of routine clinical genomic surveillance with wastewater sequencing and genotyping.

VIPERA: Viral Intra-Patient Evolution Reporting and Analysis

Viral mutations within patients nurture the adaptive potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during chronic infections, which are a potential source of variants of concern. However, there is no integrated framework for the evolutionary analysis of intra-patient SARS-CoV-2 serial samples. Herein, we describe Viral Intra-Patient Evolution Reporting and Analysis (VIPERA), a new software that integrates the evaluation of the intra-patient ancestry of SARS-CoV-2 sequences with the analysis of evolutionary trajectories of serial sequences from the same viral infection. We have validated it using positive and negative control datasets and have successfully applied it to a new case, which revealed population dynamics and evidence of adaptive evolution. VIPERA is available under a free software license at https://github.com/PathoGenOmics-Lab/VIPERA.

Systematic detection of co-infection and intra-host recombination in more than 2 million global SARS-CoV-2 samples

Systematic monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 co-infections between different lineages and assessing the risk of intra-host recombinant emergence are crucial for forecasting viral evolution. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of more than 2 million SARS-CoV-2 raw read datasets submitted to the European COVID-19 Data Portal to identify co-infections and intra-host recombination. Co-infection was observed in 0.35% of the investigated cases. Two independent procedures were implemented to detect intra-host recombination. We show that sensitivity is predominantly determined by the density of lineage-defining mutations along the genome, thus we used an expanded list of mutually exclusive defining mutations of specific variant combinations to increase statistical power. We call attention to multiple challenges rendering recombinant detection difficult and provide guidelines for the reduction of false positives arising from chimeric sequences produced during PCR amplification. Additionally, we identify three recombination hotspots of Delta - Omicron BA.1 intra-host recombinants.

NYC metropolitan wastewater reveals links between SARS-CoV-2 amino acid mutations and disease outcomes

Since late 2020, diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants with enhanced infectivity and transmissibility have emerged. In contrast to the focus on amino acid mutations in the spike protein, mutations in non-spike proteins and their associated impacts remain relatively understudied. New York City metropolitan wastewater revealed over 60 % of the most frequently occurring amino acid mutations in regions outside the spike protein. Strikingly, ~50 % of the mutations detected herein remain uncharacterized for functional impacts. Our results suggest that there are several understudied mutations within non-spike proteins N, ORF1a, ORF1b, ORF9b, and ORF9c, that could increase transmissibility, and infectivity among human populations. We also demonstrate significant correlations of P314L, D614G, T95I, G50E, G50R, G204R, R203K, G662S, P10S, and P13L with documented mortality rates, hospitalization rates, and percent positivity suggesting that amino acid mutations are likely to be indicators of COVID-19 infection outcomes.

Impact of reference design on estimating SARS-CoV-2 lineage abundances from wastewater sequencing data

BACKGROUND

Sequencing of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA from wastewater samples has emerged as a valuable tool for detecting the presence and relative abundances of SARS-CoV-2 variants in a community. By analyzing the viral genetic material present in wastewater, researchers and public health authorities can gain early insights into the spread of virus lineages and emerging mutations. Constructing reference datasets from known SARS-CoV-2 lineages and their mutation profiles has become state-of-the-art for assigning viral lineages and their relative abundances from wastewater sequencing data. However, selecting reference sequences or mutations directly affects the predictive power.

RESULTS

Here, we show the impact of a mutation- and sequence-based reference reconstruction for SARS-CoV-2 abundance estimation. We benchmark 3 datasets: (i) synthetic "spike-in"' mixtures; (ii) German wastewater samples from early 2021, mainly comprising Alpha; and (iii) samples obtained from wastewater at an international airport in Germany from the end of 2021, including first signals of Omicron. The 2 approaches differ in sublineage detection, with the marker mutation-based method, in particular, being challenged by the increasing number of mutations and lineages. However, the estimations of both approaches depend on selecting representative references and optimized parameter settings. By performing parameter escalation experiments, we demonstrate the effects of reference size and alternative allele frequency cutoffs for abundance estimation. We show how different parameter settings can lead to different results for our test datasets and illustrate the effects of virus lineage composition of wastewater samples and references.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights current computational challenges, focusing on the general reference design, which directly impacts abundance allocations. We illustrate advantages and disadvantages that may be relevant for further developments in the wastewater community and in the context of defining robust quality metrics.

Genomic surveillance reveals early detection and transition of delta to omicron lineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants in wastewater treatment plants of Pune, India

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the urgency for rapid public health surveillance methods to detect and monitor the transmission of infectious diseases. The wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a promising tool for proactive analysis and quantification of infectious pathogens within a population before clinical cases emerge. In the present study, we aimed to assess the trend and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants using a longitudinal approach. Our objective included early detection and monitoring of these variants to enhance our understanding of their prevalence and potential impact. To achieve our goals, we conducted real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and Illumina sequencing on 442 wastewater (WW) samples collected from 10 sewage treatment plants (STPs) in Pune city, India, spanning from November 2021 to April 2022. Our comprehensive analysis identified 426 distinct lineages representing 17 highly transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2. Notably, fragments of Omicron variant were detected in WW samples prior to its first clinical detection in Botswana. Furthermore, we observed highly contagious sub-lineages of the Omicron variant, including BA.1 (~28%), BA.1.X (1.0-72%), BA.2 (1.0-18%), BA.2.X (1.0-97.4%) BA.2.12 (0.8-0.25%), BA.2.38 (0.8-1.0%), BA.2.75 (0.01-0.02%), BA.3 (0.09-6.3%), BA.4 (0.24-0.29%), and XBB (0.01-21.83%), with varying prevalence rates. Overall, the present study demonstrated the practicality of WBE in the early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants, which could help track future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Such approaches could be implicated in monitoring infectious agents before they appear in clinical cases.

Wastewater early warning system for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and variants in a Coruña, Spain

Wastewater-based epidemiology has been widely used as a cost-effective method for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic at the community level. Here we describe COVIDBENS, a wastewater surveillance program running from June 2020 to March 2022 in the wastewater treatment plant of Bens in A Coruña (Spain). The main goal of this work was to provide an effective early warning tool based in wastewater epidemiology to help in decision-making at both the social and public health levels. RT-qPCR procedures and Illumina sequencing were used to weekly monitor the viral load and to detect SARS-CoV-2 mutations in wastewater, respectively. In addition, own statistical models were applied to estimate the real number of infected people and the frequency of each emerging variant circulating in the community, which considerable improved the surveillance strategy. Our analysis detected 6 viral load waves in A Coruña with concentrations between 10³ and 10⁶ SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies/L. Our system was able to anticipate community outbreaks during the pandemic with 8-36 days in advance with respect to clinical reports and, to detect the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in A Coruña such as Alpha (B.1.1.7), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA.2) in wastewater with 42, 30, and 27 days, respectively, before the health system did. Data generated here helped local authorities and health managers to give a faster and more efficient response to the pandemic situation, and also allowed important industrial companies to adapt their production to each situation. The wastewater-based epidemiology program developed in our metropolitan area of A Coruña (Spain) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic served as a powerful early warning system combining statistical models with mutations and viral load monitoring in wastewater over time.

Robust Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Whole-Genome Sequencing from Wastewater with a Nonselective Virus Concentration Method

The sequencing of human virus genomes from wastewater samples is an efficient method for tracking viral transmission and evolution at the community level. However, this requires the recovery of viral nucleic acids of high quality. We developed a reusable tangential-flow filtration system to concentrate and purify viruses from wastewater for genome sequencing. A pilot study was conducted with 94 wastewater samples from four local sewersheds, from which viral nucleic acids were extracted, and the whole genome of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was sequenced using the ARTIC V4.0 primers. Our method yielded a high probability (0.9) of recovering complete or near-complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes (>90% coverage at 10× depth) from wastewater when the COVID-19 incidence rate exceeded 33 cases per 100 000 people. The relative abundances of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants followed the trends observed from patient-derived samples. We also identified SARS-CoV-2 lineages in wastewater that were underrepresented or not present in the clinical whole-genome sequencing data. The developed tangential-flow filtration system can be easily adopted for the sequencing of other viruses in wastewater, particularly those at low concentrations.

Identification of a rare SARS-CoV-2 XL hybrid variant in wastewater and the subsequent discovery of two infected individuals in Nevada

The identification of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants can predict new patterns of COVID-19 community transmission and lead to the deployment of public health resources. However, increased access to at-home antigen tests and reduced free PCR tests have recently led to data gaps for the surveillance of evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants. To overcome such limitations, we asked whether wastewater surveillance could be leveraged to detect rare variants circulating in a community before local detection in human cases. Here, we performed whole genome sequencing (WGS) of SARS-CoV-2 from a wastewater treatment plant serving Las Vegas, Nevada in April 2022. Using metrics that exceeded 100× depth at a coverage of >90 % of the viral genome, we identified a variant profile similar to the XL recombinant lineage containing 26 mutations found in BA.1 and BA.2 and three private mutations. Prompted by the discovery of this rare lineage in wastewater, we analyzed clinical COVID-19 sequencing data from Southern Nevada and identified two cases infected with the XL lineage. Taken together, our data highlight how wastewater genome sequencing data can be used to discover rare SARS-CoV-2 lineages in a community and complement local public health surveillance.

Performance of methods for SARS-CoV-2 variant detection and abundance estimation within mixed population samples

Background

The accurate identification of SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) variants and estimation of their abundance in mixed population samples (e.g., air or wastewater) is imperative for successful surveillance of community level trends. Assessing the performance of SC2 variant composition estimators (VCEs) should improve our confidence in public health decision making. Here, we introduce a linear regression based VCE and compare its performance to four other VCEs: two re-purposed DNA sequence read classifiers (Kallisto and Kraken2), a maximum-likelihood based method (Lineage deComposition for Sars-Cov-2 pooled samples (LCS)), and a regression based method (Freyja).

Methods

We simulated DNA sequence datasets of known variant composition from both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) platforms and assessed the performance of each VCE. We also evaluated VCEs performance using publicly available empirical wastewater samples collected for SC2 surveillance efforts. Bioinformatic analyses were performed with a custom NextFlow workflow (C-WAP, CFSAN Wastewater Analysis Pipeline). Relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) was used as a measure of performance with respect to the known abundance and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to measure agreement between pairs of estimators.

Results

Based on our results from simulated data, Kallisto was the most accurate estimator as it had the lowest RRMSE, followed by Freyja. Kallisto and Freyja had the most similar predictions, reflected by the highest CCC metrics. We also found that accuracy was platform and amplicon panel dependent. For example, the accuracy of Freyja was significantly higher with Illumina data compared to ONT data; performance of Kallisto was best with ARTICv4. However, when analyzing empirical data there was poor agreement among methods and variations in the number of variants detected (e.g., Freyja ARTICv4 had a mean of 2.2 variants while Kallisto ARTICv4 had a mean of 10.1 variants).

Conclusion

This work provides an understanding of the differences in performance of a number of VCEs and how accurate they are in capturing the relative abundance of SC2 variants within a mixed sample (e.g., wastewater). Such information should help officials gauge the confidence they can have in such data for informing public health decisions.

MixviR: an R Package for Exploring Variation Associated with Genomic Sequence Data from Environmental SARS-CoV-2 and Other Mixed Microbial Samples

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)/coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted an important role for efficient surveillance of microbial pathogens. High-throughput sequencing technologies provide valuable surveillance tools, offering opportunities to conduct high-resolution monitoring from diverse sample types, including from environmental sources. However, given their large size and potential to contain mixtures of lineages within samples, such genomic data sets can present challenges for analyzing the data and communicating results with diverse stakeholders. Here, we report MixviR, an R package for exploring, analyzing, and visualizing genomic data from potentially mixed samples of a target microbial group. MixviR characterizes variation at both the nucleotide and amino acid levels and offers the RShiny interactive dashboard for exploring data. We demonstrate MixviR's utility with validation studies using mixtures of known lineages from both SARS-CoV-2 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis and with a case study analyzing lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples over time at a sampling location in Ohio, USA. IMPORTANCE High-throughput sequencing technologies hold great potential for contributing to genomic-based surveillance of microbial diversity from environmental samples. However, the size of the data sets, along with the potential for environmental samples to contain multiple evolutionary lineages of interest, present challenges around analyzing and effectively communicating inferences from these data sets. The software described here provides a novel and valuable tool for exploring such data. Though originally designed and used for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 lineages in wastewater, it can also be applied to analyses of genomic diversity in other microbial groups.

Wastewater sequencing reveals early cryptic SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission

As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing and/or sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases1-3. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing4,5. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We developed and deployed improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detected emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identified multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.

Wastewater sequencing uncovers early, cryptic SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission

As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing/sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here, we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We develop and deploy improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detect emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identify multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.

Wastewater sequencing uncovers early, cryptic SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission

As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing/sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here, we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We develop and deploy improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detect emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identify multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.