Integrating the flow regime and water quality effects into a niche-based metacommunity dynamics model for river ecosystems

Aquatic community dynamics are closely dominated by flow regime and water quality conditions, which are increasingly threatened by dam regulation, water diversion, and nutrition pollution. However, further understanding of the ecological impacts of flow regime and water quality conditions on aquatic multi-population dynamics has rarely been integrated into existing ecological models. To address this issue, a new niche-based metacommunity dynamics model (MDM) is proposed. The MDM aims to simulate the coevolution processes of multiple populations under changing abiotic environments, pioneeringly applied to the mid-lower Han River, China. The quantile regression method was used for the first time to derive ecological niches and competition coefficients of the MDM, which are demonstrated to be reasonable by comparing them with the empirical evidence. Simulation results show that the Nash efficiency coefficients for fish, zooplankton, zoobenthos, and macrophytes are more than 0.64, while the Pearson correlation coefficients for them are no less than 0.71. Overall, the MDM performs effectively in simulating metacommunity dynamics. For all river stations, the average contributions of biological interaction, flow regime effects, and water quality effects to multi-population dynamics are 64%, 21%, and 15%, respectively, suggesting that the population dynamics are dominated by biological interaction. For upstream stations, the fish population is 8%-22% more responsive to flow regime alteration than other populations, while other populations are 9%-26% more responsive to changes in water quality conditions than fish. For downstream stations, flow regime effects on each population account for less than 1% due to more stable hydrological conditions. The innovative contribution of this study lies in proposing a multi-population model to quantify the effects of flow regime and water quality on aquatic community dynamics by incorporating multiple indicators of water quantity, water quality, and biomass. This work has potential for the ecological restoration of rivers at the ecosystem level. This study also highlights the importance of considering threshold and tipping point issues when analyzing the "water quantity-water quality-aquatic ecology" nexus in future works.

Hydropeaking impacts on riverine plants downstream from the world's largest hydropower dam, the Three Gorges Dam

Hydropeaking has become a global issue because of extensive hydropower dam construction worldwide. Yet, its ecological impacts on riverine ecosystems are not well studied. We explored the effects of hydropeaking on riverine plants, based on data from a ~300 km reach downstream of the world's largest hydropower dam, the Three Gorges Dam. We tested three hypotheses relating to hydropeaking impacts on species elevational distributions, assemblage structure and species-specific biomass patterns by generalized linear mixed modelling and joint species distribution modelling. We found that, first, hydropeaking greatly shaped species elevational ranges, leading to expansions of herbs to high elevations and shifting species dominance at low elevations. Secondly, we detected contrasting effects of hydropeaking on assemblage-level characteristics of herbs. The inundation induced by hydropeaking had strong effects on assemblage composition and biomass allocation, where more biomass was allocated to belowground part. Hydropeaking blurred the species richness-biomass relationship, although it had little effect on species richness or plot-level biomass. Thirdly, hydropeaking induced inundation was the most important covariate driving species biomass patterns of riverine plants, although complex species-specific effects were identified, and random effects were often large in fitted models. We concluded that hydropeaking likely acted as a major driver of plant community assembly in rivers with a hydropower dam. Conservation and restoration of riverine plants can benefit from the inclusion of water level management in operational schemes of hydropower dams, especially during the early life history stages.

Inter-Annual and Seasonal Variability of Flows: Delivering Climate-Smart Environmental Flow Reference Values

Environmental flow (eflow) reference values play a key role in environmental water science and practice. In Mexico, eflow assessments are set by a norm in which the frequency of occurrence is the managing factor to integrate inter-annual and seasonal flow variability components into environmental water reserves. However, the frequency parameters have been used indistinctively between streamflow types. In this study, flow variability contributions in 40 rivers were evaluated based on hydrology, climate, and geography. Multivariate assessments were conducted based on a standardized contribution index for the river types grouping (principal components) and significant differences (one-way PERMANOVA). Eflow requirements for water allocation were calculated for different management objectives according to the frequency-of-occurrence baseline and an adjustment to reflect the differences between river types. Results reveal that there are significant differences in the flow variability between hydrological conditions and streamflow types (p-values < 0.05). The performance assessment reveals that the new frequency of occurrence delivers climate-smart reference values at least at an acceptable level (for 85–87% of the cases, r2 ≥ 0.8, slope ≤ 3.1), strengthening eflow assessments and implementations.

Adapting Water Management to Climate Change in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

Climate change is threatening water security in water-scarce regions across the world, challenging water management policy in terms of how best to adapt. Transformative new approaches have been proposed, but management policies remain largely the same in many instances, and there are claims that good current management practice is well adapted. This paper takes the case of the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia, where management policies are highly sophisticated and have been through a recent transformation in order to critically review how well adapted the basin’s management is to climate change. This paper synthesizes published data, recent literature, and water plans in order to evaluate the outcomes of water management policy. It identifies several limitations and inequities that could emerge in the context of climate change and, through synthesis of the broader climate adaptation literature, proposes solutions that can be implemented when basin management is formally reviewed in 2026.

Study on the theories and methods of ecological flow guarantee rate index under different time scales

Human activities have altered the region's natural attributes to a certain extent, leading to the competition of resources. As a result of the contradiction between water use inside and outside the river, the river ecosystems are under increasing pressure. Ecological flow has been proposed to ensure the health of the river ecosystem and habitat integrity. However, there are few special studies on its guarantee rate and lack of systematic analysis. To scientifically evaluate the ecological flow guarantee rate, this study proposed an ecological flow guarantee index for long-time by frequency analysis and an ecological flow guarantee index for short-time by Satisfaction Rate. Taking four typical sections of the mainstream of the Huai River as the research objects, we evaluated the ecological flow guarantee rate at different time scales based on the runoff sequence from 1956 to 2018. It was found that over the mid-long term scale (multi-year series), the guarantee rate of each section during the non-flood period reached 87%, while the guarantee rate during the flood period was about 83%. Over a short time scale (day series within the year), taking typical years of wet, normal, dry, and withered years to calculate the guarantee rate within the year, the average ecological flow guarantee rate reached about 70%. In practice, the joint application of the mid-long term and short-term ecological flow guarantee rate can take into account both long-term planning and short-term regulation, ensuring the sustainable development of river ecosystems in all aspects.

What Do Environmental Flows Mean for Long-term Freshwater Ecosystems’ Protection? Assessment of the Mexican Water Reserves for the Environment Program

Almost a decade ago, the Mexican government targeted to establish environmental water reserves (EWR)—a volume of water allocated for ecological protection based on the Environmental Flow Mexican Norm (eflows, NMX-AA-159-SCFI-2012, ratified in 2017)—in strategic low-pressured for water use and high conservation importance river basins throughout the country. To date, 12 EWRs have been declared for up to 50 years, which encompass 295 river basins and ~55% of the national mean annual runoff (MAR). In this article, we conducted a quality evaluation of the EWRs established. First, the EWR level was analyzed against the MAR and according to wider hydrological conditions. The EWR fulfillment was evaluated by comparing the volumes enacted against the theoretical (Norm implementation). Our findings revealed that independently of individual and regional water use and conservation merits context, ~75% of the EWRs met theoretical volumes at least at an acceptable level, of which medians ranged from 24% to 73% MAR (natural parametrization and A–D environmental objectives). These outcomes prove the usefulness and consistency of the Mexican strategic hierarchical approach for eflow assessments. We aim for them to be considered as the baseline for future on-site eflow implementation and environmental water policy assessments, to show the nationwide potential benefits for protecting free-flowing rivers and to encourage a regional escalation of the strategy.

Ecological responses to flow variation inform river dolphin conservation

Many environmental flow (e-flow) studies and applications have predominantly used state—(i.e., at a single time point) and rate—(i.e., temporal change) based demographic characteristics of species representing lower trophic levels (e.g., fish communities) to build flow-ecology relationships, rather than using a process that incorporates population dynamics. Recent studies have revealed the importance of incorporating data on species traits when building flow-ecology relationships. The effects of flow on keystone megafauna species (i.e., body mass ≥ 30 kg) reverberate through entire food webs; however, the relationships between flow and these species are not well understood, limiting the scope of the relationships used in flow management. Here, we fill this gap by incorporating the habitat selection traits at different flows of a freshwater apex predator, Ganges River dolphin (GRD, Platanista gangetica gangetica), which plays a significant role in maintaining the structure, functions and integrity of the aquatic ecosystem. Using temporally and spatially measured GRD habitat selection traits, we quantified flow-ecology responses in the Karnali River of Nepal during the low-flow season when habitat was heavily reduced and water demand was highest. We define ecological responses as suitable habitat templates with enough usable surface area to support GRD fitness by improving reproduction and survival. We measured the available and occupied habitats to develop flow-ecology responses. Variation in flow resulted in substantial differences in the ecological response across time and space, suggesting that aquatic species adjusted in a variety of habitats to support their life histories and maintain viable populations. The limited availability of suitable habitats combined with uninformed water regulations by humans likely places GRDs under severe physiological stress during low-water seasons (i.e., January–April), suggesting that  reduced flows contribute to the process of endangering and extirpating highly sensitive endemic aquatic biodiversity. Our study reveals that ad hoc or experience-based flow management is no longer tenable to maintain the integrity and functionality of aquatic ecosystems. We stress that quantifying the flow-ecology relationships of foundational species, particularly megafauna, in response to flow variation is crucial for monitoring the effects of water alterations and determining the minimum flows needed for maintaining healthy and functional freshwater ecosystems in the Anthropocene.