Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

Mortality risk of patients with intestinal obstruction

BACKGROUND

Intestinal obstruction represents a severe intestinal disease associated with higher mortality rates. However, the determinants of mortality in patients with intestinal obstruction remain inadequately understood. This study sought to elucidate the potential risk factors associated with mortality in the context of intestinal obstruction during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on a cohort of 227 patients diagnosed with intestinal obstruction at the First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, spanning the period from September 7, 2022, to January 7, 2023. The primary endpoint of the study was mortality within four weeks following discharge. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were utilized to evaluate the risk factors associated with mortality outcomes.

RESULTS

A cohort of 227 patients diagnosed with intestinal obstruction (median age, 59.02 years [IQR, 48.95-70.85 years]) was included in our study. Malignant bowel obstruction (MBO) and COVID-19 were identified as independent risk factors for mortality among these patients. Notably, the mortality rate increased significantly to 38.46% when MBO was concomitant with COVID-19. Furthermore, postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) (OR, 54.21 [death]; 95% CI, 3.17-926.31), gastric cancer (OR, 9.71 [death]; 95% CI, 1.38-68.18), VTE (Caprini Score ≥ 5) (OR, 7.64 [death]; 95% CI, 1.37-42.51), and COVID-19 (OR, 5.72 [death]; 95% CI, 1.01-32.29) were all determined to be independent risk factors for postoperative mortality. Additionally, gastric cancer could have emerged as one of the most severe risk factors for mortality in individuals with intestinal obstruction within the cohort of cancer patients, of which gastric cancer exhibited higher mortality rates compared to individuals with other forms of cancer.

CONCLUSION

The study identifies MBO, gastric cancer, COVID-19, PPC, and VTE as potential risk factors for mortality in cases of intestinal obstruction. These findings highlight the necessity for continuous monitoring of indicators related to these mortality risk factors and their associated complications, thereby offering valuable insights for the management and treatment of intestinal obstruction.

Artificial intelligence in surgery

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly emerging in healthcare, yet applications in surgery remain relatively nascent. Here we review the integration of AI in the field of surgery, centering our discussion on multifaceted improvements in surgical care in the preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative space. The emergence of foundation model architectures, wearable technologies and improving surgical data infrastructures is enabling rapid advances in AI interventions and utility. We discuss how maturing AI methods hold the potential to improve patient outcomes, facilitate surgical education and optimize surgical care. We review the current applications of deep learning approaches and outline a vision for future advances through multimodal foundation models.

Application of machine learning algorithms in classifying postoperative success in metabolic bariatric surgery: Acomprehensive study

Objectives

Metabolic bariatric surgery is a critical intervention for patients living with obesity and related health issues. Accurate classification and prediction of patient outcomes are vital for optimizing treatment strategies. This study presents a novel machine learning approach to classify patients in the context of metabolic bariatric surgery, providing insights into the efficacy of different models and variable types.

Methods

Various machine learning models, including Gaussian Naive Bayes, Complement Naive Bayes, K-nearest neighbour, Decision Tree, K-nearest neighbour with RandomOverSampler, and K-nearest neighbour with SMOTE, were applied to a dataset of 73 patients. The dataset, comprising psychometric, socioeconomic, and analytical variables, was analyzed to determine the most efficient predictive model. The study also explored the impact of different variable groupings and oversampling techniques.

Results

Experimental results indicate average accuracy values as high as 66.7% for the best model. Enhanced versions of K-nearest neighbour and Decision Tree, along with variations of K-nearest neighbour such as RandomOverSampler and SMOTE, yielded the best results.

Conclusions

The study unveils a promising avenue for classifying patients in the realm of metabolic bariatric surgery. The results underscore the importance of selecting appropriate variables and employing diverse approaches to achieve optimal performance. The developed system holds potential as a tool to assist healthcare professionals in decision-making, thereby enhancing metabolic bariatric surgery outcomes. These findings lay the groundwork for future collaboration between hospitals and healthcare entities to improve patient care through the utilization of machine learning algorithms. Moreover, the findings suggest room for improvement, potentially achievable with a larger dataset and careful parameter tuning.

Prediction of Complications and Prognostication in Perioperative Medicine: A Systematic Review and PROBAST Assessment of Machine Learning Tools

BACKGROUND

The utilization of artificial intelligence and machine learning as diagnostic and predictive tools in perioperative medicine holds great promise. Indeed, many studies have been performed in recent years to explore the potential. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the current state of machine learning in perioperative medicine, its utility in prediction of complications and prognostication, and limitations related to bias and validation.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary team of clinicians and engineers conducted a systematic review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol. Multiple databases were searched, including Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), the Cochrane Library, PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Web of Science. The systematic review focused on study design, type of machine learning model used, validation techniques applied, and reported model performance on prediction of complications and prognostication. This review further classified outcomes and machine learning applications using an ad hoc classification system. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias and applicability of the studies.

RESULTS

A total of 103 studies were identified. The models reported in the literature were primarily based on single-center validations (75%), with only 13% being externally validated across multiple centers. Most of the mortality models demonstrated a limited ability to discriminate and classify effectively. The PROBAST assessment indicated a high risk of systematic errors in predicted outcomes and artificial intelligence or machine learning applications.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that the development of this field is still in its early stages. This systematic review indicates that application of machine learning in perioperative medicine is still at an early stage. While many studies suggest potential utility, several key challenges must be first overcome before their introduction into clinical practice.

EDITOR’S PERSPECTIVE

The effect of using mobile health on self-management of type 2 diabetic patients: A systematic review in Iran

Type 2 diabetes, as one of the most common chronic diseases, requires ongoing management and support from the patient; therefore, patient participation and self-management play a pivotal role in controlling and preventing this disease. The increasing use of smartphones has provided a good opportunity for controlling and managing patients with type 2 diabetes. This study aimed to investigate the effect of mobile health on the self-management of patients with type 2 diabetes in Iran. A systematic review study was conducted from 2010 to 2021. Searches in Persian and English scientific databases, IranDoc, MagIran, SID Web of science, and PubMed, were performed using keywords such as diabetes and mobile health. The process of reviewing and selecting articles based on inclusion and exclusion criteria was performed by two researchers independently. The study evaluation was performed by using a standard tool. After selecting articles, data extraction was performed using a data extraction form. Data analysis was performed with a content analysis approach. Finally, 23 articles were included from the 7767 articles found in the initial search stage, which examined patients' self-care in 11 areas using mobile health. Fourteen studies (61%) considered mobile health to be effective in increasing hemoglobin control. Other studies also found the use of mobile health in increasing adherence to exercise (n = 10), increasing adherence to medication (n = 9), increasing adherence to diet (n = 11), increasing care for diabetic foot ulcers (n = 8), increasing self-efficacy and empowerment (n = 5), increasing cholesterol control (n = 4), increasing awareness and attitude (n = 4), increasing control of insulin dose (n = 2), increasing adherence to education (n = 1), and increasing control of blood urea (n = 1), which were considered effective. The use of m-health effectively controls the disease and promotes self-management in type 2 diabetic patients. Considering the high cost of diabetes treatment, policymakers should implement appropriate interventions and strategies in the field of using mobile health to improve adherence to self-management of the disease.

Obstructive jaundice treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic: retrospective cohort study at a single tertiary care center in Serbia

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare mortality and complication rates in patients treated for obstructive jaundice before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in a tertiary care center in Serbia.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among a first group of patients treated between 1 January 2017 and 1 January 2019. The second group was treated between 1 March 2020 and 1 March 2022.

RESULTS

The first group comprised 35 patients, and the second group (in which all patients were SARS-CoV-2 positive) included 18 patients; 37 and 16 patients were treated for malignant and benign diseases, respectively. The groups did not differ significantly regarding the diagnoses and treatment received. The second group showed significantly higher aspartate aminotransferase levels and lower white blood cell, C-reactive protein, and interleukin 6 levels. Mortality and complication rates did not differ significantly between groups. All deceased patients in the second group had significant radiologic findings associated with COVID-19 pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 infection is a risk factor in treating obstructive jaundice. This study illustrates the potential influence of COVID-19 on mortality after obstructive jaundice treatment. COVID-19 pneumonia may be a significant risk factor for mortality in patients treated for obstructive jaundice.

Prophylactic anticoagulants for non-hospitalised people with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted healthcare systems worldwide. Multiple reports on thromboembolic complications related to COVID-19 have been published, and researchers have described that people with COVID-19 are at high risk for developing venous thromboembolism (VTE). Anticoagulants have been used as pharmacological interventions to prevent arterial and venous thrombosis, and their use in the outpatient setting could potentially reduce the prevalence of vascular thrombosis and associated mortality in people with COVID-19. However, even lower doses used for a prophylactic purpose may result in adverse events such as bleeding. It is important to consider the evidence for anticoagulant use in non-hospitalised people with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the benefits and harms of prophylactic anticoagulants versus active comparators, placebo or no intervention, or non-pharmacological interventions in non-hospitalised people with COVID-19.

SEARCH METHODS

We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search date was 18 April 2022.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing prophylactic anticoagulants with placebo or no treatment, another active comparator, or non-pharmacological interventions in non-hospitalised people with COVID-19. We included studies that compared anticoagulants with a different dose of the same anticoagulant. We excluded studies with a duration of under two weeks.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methodological procedures. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, VTE (deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE)), and major bleeding. Our secondary outcomes were DVT, PE, need for hospitalisation, minor bleeding, adverse events, and quality of life. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included five RCTs with up to 90 days of follow-up (short term). Data were available for meta-analysis from 1777 participants. Anticoagulant compared to placebo or no treatment Five studies compared anticoagulants with placebo or no treatment and provided data for three of our outcomes of interest (all-cause mortality, major bleeding, and adverse events). The evidence suggests that prophylactic anticoagulants may lead to little or no difference in all-cause mortality (risk ratio (RR) 0.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.04 to 3.61; 5 studies; 1777 participants; low-certainty evidence) and probably reduce VTE from 3% in the placebo group to 1% in the anticoagulant group (RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.85; 4 studies; 1259 participants; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) = 50; moderate-certainty evidence). There may be little to no difference in major bleeding (RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.01 to 8.78; 5 studies; 1777 participants; low-certainty evidence). Anticoagulants probably result in little or no difference in DVT (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.30 to 3.46; 3 studies; 1009 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), but probably reduce the risk of PE from 2.7% in the placebo group to 0.7% in the anticoagulant group (RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.79; 3 studies; 1009 participants; NNTB 50; moderate-certainty evidence). Anticoagulants probably lead to little or no difference in reducing hospitalisation (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.75; 4 studies; 1459 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) and may lead to little or no difference in adverse events (minor bleeding, RR 2.46, 95% CI 0.90 to 6.72; 5 studies, 1777 participants; low-certainty evidence). Anticoagulant compared to a different dose of the same anticoagulant One study compared anticoagulant (higher-dose apixaban) with a different (standard) dose of the same anticoagulant and reported five relevant outcomes. No cases of all-cause mortality, VTE, or major bleeding occurred in either group during the 45-day follow-up (moderate-certainty evidence). Higher-dose apixaban compared to standard-dose apixaban may lead to little or no difference in reducing the need for hospitalisation (RR 1.89, 95% CI 0.17 to 20.58; 1 study; 278 participants; low-certainty evidence) or in the number of adverse events (minor bleeding, RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.09 to 2.54; 1 study; 278 participants; low-certainty evidence). Anticoagulant compared to antiplatelet agent One study compared anticoagulant (apixaban) with antiplatelet agent (aspirin) and reported five relevant outcomes. No cases of all-cause mortality or major bleeding occurred during the 45-day follow-up (moderate-certainty evidence). Apixaban may lead to little or no difference in VTE (RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.01 to 8.65; 1 study; 279 participants; low-certainty evidence), need for hospitalisation (RR 3.20, 95% CI 0.13 to 77.85; 1 study; 279 participants; low-certainty evidence), or adverse events (minor bleeding, RR 2.13, 95% CI 0.40 to 11.46; 1 study; 279 participants; low-certainty evidence). No included studies reported on quality of life or investigated anticoagulants compared to a different anticoagulant, or anticoagulants compared to non-pharmacological interventions.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found low- to moderate-certainty evidence from five RCTs that prophylactic anticoagulants result in little or no difference in major bleeding, DVT, need for hospitalisation, or adverse events when compared with placebo or no treatment in non-hospitalised people with COVID-19. Low-certainty evidence indicates that prophylactic anticoagulants may result in little or no difference in all-cause mortality when compared with placebo or no treatment, but moderate-certainty evidence indicates that prophylactic anticoagulants probably reduce the incidence of VTE and PE. Low-certainty evidence suggests that comparing different doses of the same prophylactic anticoagulant may result in little or no difference in need for hospitalisation or adverse events. Prophylactic anticoagulants may result in little or no difference in risk of VTE, hospitalisation, or adverse events when compared with antiplatelet agents (low-certainty evidence). Given that there were only short-term data from one study, these results should be interpreted with caution. Additional trials of sufficient duration are needed to clearly determine any effect on clinical outcomes.

Automated identification of chalcogen bonds in AlphaFold protein structure database files: is it possible?

Protein structure prediction and structural biology have entered a new era with an artificial intelligence-based approach encoded in the AlphaFold2 and the analogous RoseTTAfold methods. More than 200 million structures have been predicted by AlphaFold2 from their primary sequences and the models as well as the approach itself have naturally been examined from different points of view by experimentalists and bioinformaticians. Here, we assessed the degree to which these computational models can provide information on subtle structural details with potential implications for diverse applications in protein engineering and chemical biology and focused the attention on chalcogen bonds formed by disulphide bridges. We found that only 43% of the chalcogen bonds observed in the experimental structures are present in the computational models, suggesting that the accuracy of the computational models is, in the majority of the cases, insufficient to allow the detection of chalcogen bonds, according to the usual stereochemical criteria. High-resolution experimentally derived structures are therefore still necessary when the structure must be investigated in depth based on fine structural aspects.

Pituitary and SARS CoV-2: An unremitting conundrum

There is increased interest related to the impact of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) on the endocrine system and in particular on the pituitary gland. Over the course of the severe infection with acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), there are both acute and delayed effects on the pituitary, related to infection and/or treatment. Hypopituitarism, pituitary apoplexy and hypophysitis have been all reported, as well as arginine vasopressin deficiency (diabetes insipidus) and syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone secretion. Furthermore, patients with acromegaly, Cushing's disease and hypopituitarism are theoretically at increased risk of complications with COVID-19 and require close monitoring. Evidence regarding pituitary dysfunction in patients with COVID-19 continues to be gathered, as the breadth and depth of knowledge also continues to rapidly evolve. This review summarizes data analysis to date on the possible effects of COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccination on patients with normal pituitary function and patients with known pituitary pathology. Though clinical systems were significantly affected, it seems there is no overall loss of biochemical control in patients with certain pituitary pathologies.

Machine Learning Research Trends in Africa: A 30 Years Overview with Bibliometric Analysis Review

The machine learning (ML) paradigm has gained much popularity today. Its algorithmic models are employed in every field, such as natural language processing, pattern recognition, object detection, image recognition, earth observation and many other research areas. In fact, machine learning technologies and their inevitable impact suffice in many technological transformation agendas currently being propagated by many nations, for which the already yielded benefits are outstanding. From a regional perspective, several studies have shown that machine learning technology can help address some of Africa's most pervasive problems, such as poverty alleviation, improving education, delivering quality healthcare services, and addressing sustainability challenges like food security and climate change. In this state-of-the-art paper, a critical bibliometric analysis study is conducted, coupled with an extensive literature survey on recent developments and associated applications in machine learning research with a perspective on Africa. The presented bibliometric analysis study consists of 2761 machine learning-related documents, of which 89% were articles with at least 482 citations published in 903 journals during the past three decades. Furthermore, the collated documents were retrieved from the Science Citation Index EXPANDED, comprising research publications from 54 African countries between 1993 and 2021. The bibliometric study shows the visualization of the current landscape and future trends in machine learning research and its application to facilitate future collaborative research and knowledge exchange among authors from different research institutions scattered across the African continent.

Ambulatory laparoscopic colectomies: a systematic review

AIM

Ambulatory laparoscopic colectomy (ALC), meaning discharge within 24 h of surgical colonic resection, has recently been proposed in a few, selected patients. This systematic review was performed with the aim of reviewing protocols for ALC and assessing feasibility, safety and outcomes after ALC.

METHOD

A PRISMA-compliant systematic review and pooled analysis was performed searching all English studies published until October 2022 in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science (PROSPERO, CRD42022334463). Inclusion criteria were original articles including patients undergoing ALC, specifying at least one outcome of interest. Exclusion criteria were articles reporting a robotic-assisted procedure; unable to retrieve patient data from articles; the same patient series included in different studies. Primary outcomes were success, overall complications and readmission rates. Secondary outcomes included mortality and specific complications such us surgical site infection, anastomotic leak, ileus, bleeding, rate of ALC acceptance, and unscheduled consultation and reoperation rate.

RESULTS

Among 1087 studies imported for screening, 11 were included (1296 patients). The success rate was 47% with an overall morbidity of 14%. Readmission and reoperation rates were 5% and 1%, respectively. No mortality was recorded. Protocols of ALC differ significantly among published studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, ALC appears to be safe and feasible in selected cases with an acceptable success rate and a low risk of readmission after hospital discharge. Future studies should evaluate patients' benefits and discharge criteria, as well as uniformity and standardization of eligibility criteria. This systematic review may help inform on ALC adoption in clinical practice.

The snapshot audit methodology: design, implementation and analysis of prospective observational cohort studies in surgery

PURPOSE

For some surgical conditionns and scientific questions, the "real world" effectiveness of surgical patient care may be better explored using a multi-institutional time-bound observational cohort assessment approach (termed a "snapshot audit") than by retrospective review of administrative datasets or by prospective randomized control trials. We discuss when this might be the case, and present the key features of developing, deploying, and assessing snapshot audit outcomes data.

METHODS

A narrative review of snapshot audit methodology was generated using the Scale for the Assessment of Narrative Review Articles (SANRA) guideline. Manuscripts were selected from domains including: audit design and deployment, statistical analysis, surgical therapy and technique, surgical outcomes, diagnostic testing, critical care management, concomitant non-surgical disease, implementation science, and guideline compliance.

RESULTS

Snapshot audits all conform to a similar structure: being time-bound, non-interventional, and multi-institutional. A successful diverse steering committee will leverage expertise that includes clinical care and data science, coupled with librarian services. Pre-published protocols (with specified aims and analyses) greatly helps site recruitment. Mentored trainee involvement at collaborating sites should be encouraged through manuscript contributorship. Current funding principally flows from medical professional organizations.

CONCLUSION

The snapshot audit approach to assessing current care provides insights into care delivery, outcomes, and guideline compliance while generating testable hypotheses.

The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on videolaryngoscopy: a cross-sectional before-and-after survey

BACKGROUND

Guidelines and consensus statements recommend the use of videola-ryngoscopes (VLs) in airway management of patients with COVID-19. However, there is a lack of knowledge about which types of videolaryngoscopes are used, differences of use between countries, and how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced their use. The primary aim of this before-and-after cross-sectional survey study was to assess the frequency of the use of videolaryngoscopy in the operation theatres in different countries. Also, the preferred characteristics of videolaryngoscopes were assessed.

METHODS

With Ethics Committee approval, a questionnaire was distributed among anaes-thesiologists through the European Airway Management Society's network in 2019 before and in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Responses to the questions were analysed and presented as descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

We reached out to 791 anaesthesiologists; 155 (19.5%) returned the first questionnaire, and 91 (11.5%) returned the second survey. Videolaryngoscopes were used in 24.1% of cases before COVID-19 and in 43.1% after the pandemic ( P < 0.001). We revealed that the availability of videolaryngoscopes increased to 100% in all centres during the pandemic. Routine use of videolaryngoscopes in all cases increased from 12.5% to 38.9%. The type of videolaryngoscope and the blade preference did not change during this period ( P = 1.000).

CONCLUSIONS

This survey reflects that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the availability and use of videolaryngoscopes in operating theatres, and that more anaesthesiologists now use them routinely in all cases. The preferred type of VL or blade did not change during the pandemic.

The impact of influenza vaccination on surgical outcomes in COVID-19 positive patients: An analysis of 43,580 patients

BACKGROUND

Multiple recent studies suggest a possible protective effect of the influenza vaccine against severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This effect has yet to be evaluated in surgical patients. This study utilizes a continuously updated federated electronic medical record (EMR) network (TriNetX, Cambridge, MA) to analyze the influence of the influenza vaccine against post-operative complications in SARS-CoV-2-positive patients.

METHODS

The de-identified records of 73,341,020 patients globally were retrospectively screened. Two balanced cohorts totaling 43,580 surgical patients were assessed from January 2020-January 2021. Cohort One received the influenza vaccine six months-two weeks prior to SARS-CoV-2-positive diagnosis, while Cohort Two did not. Post-operative complications within 30, 60, 90, and 120 days of undergoing surgery were analyzed using common procedural terminology(CPT) codes. Outcomes were propensity score matched for characteristics including age, race, gender, diabetes, obesity, and smoking.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV-2-positive patients receiving the influenza vaccine experienced significantly decreased risks of sepsis, deep vein thrombosis, dehiscence, acute myocardial infarction, surgical site infections, and death across multiple time points(p<0.05, Bonferroni Correction p = 0.0011). Number needed to vaccinate (NNV) was calculated for all significant and nominally significant findings.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis examines the potential protective effect of influenza vaccination in SARS-CoV-2-positive surgical patients. Limitations include this study's retrospective nature and reliance on accuracy of medical coding. Future prospective studies are warranted to confirm our findings.

Present and future of machine learning in breast surgery: systematic review

BACKGROUND

Machine learning is a set of models and methods that can automatically detect patterns in vast amounts of data, extract information, and use it to perform decision-making under uncertain conditions. The potential of machine learning is significant, and breast surgeons must strive to be informed with up-to-date knowledge and its applications.

METHODS

A systematic database search of Embase, MEDLINE, the Cochrane database, and Google Scholar, from inception to December 2021, was conducted of original articles that explored the use of machine learning and/or artificial intelligence in breast surgery in EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane database and Google Scholar.

RESULTS

The search yielded 477 articles, of which 14 studies were included in this review, featuring 73 847 patients. Four main areas of machine learning application were identified: predictive modelling of surgical outcomes; breast imaging-based context; screening and triaging of patients with breast cancer; and as network utility for detection. There is evident value of machine learning in preoperative planning and in providing information for surgery both in a cancer and an aesthetic context. Machine learning outperformed traditional statistical modelling in all studies for predicting mortality, morbidity, and quality of life outcomes. Machine learning patterns and associations could support planning, anatomical visualization, and surgical navigation.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning demonstrated promising applications for improving breast surgery outcomes and patient-centred care. Neveretheless, there remain important limitations and ethical concerns relating to implementing artificial intelligence into everyday surgical practices.

COVID-19 in the perioperative setting: A review of the literature and the clinical landscape

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically affected societies and healthcare systems around the globe. The perioperative care continuum has also been under significant strain due to the pandemic-tasked with simultaneously addressing surgical strains and backlogs, infection prevention strategies, and emerging data regarding significantly higher perioperative risk for COVID-19 patients and survivors. Many uncertainties persist regarding the perioperative risk, assessment, and management of COVID-19 survivors-and the energy to catch up on surgical backlogs must be tempered with strategies to continue to mitigate COVID-19 related perioperative risk. Here, we review the available data for COVID-19-related perioperative risk, discuss areas of persistent uncertainty, and empower the perioperative teams to pursue evidence-based strategies for high quality, patient-centered, team-based care as we enter the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Patients awaiting surgery for neurosurgical diseases during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain: a multicentre cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The large number of infected patients requiring mechanical ventilation has led to the postponement of scheduled neurosurgical procedures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The aims of this study were to investigate the factors that influence the decision to postpone scheduled neurosurgical procedures and to evaluate the effect of the restriction in scheduled surgery adopted to deal with the first outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain on the outcome of patients awaiting surgery.

DESIGN

This was an observational retrospective study.

SETTINGS

A tertiary-level multicentre study of neurosurgery activity between 1 March and 30 June 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 680 patients awaiting any scheduled neurosurgical procedure were enrolled. 470 patients (69.1%) were awaiting surgery because of spine degenerative disease, 86 patients (12.6%) due to functional disorders, 58 patients (8.5%) due to brain or spine tumours, 25 patients (3.7%) due to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) disorders and 17 patients (2.5%) due to cerebrovascular disease.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was mortality due to any reason and any deterioration of the specific neurosurgical condition. Second, we analysed the rate of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

More than one-quarter of patients experienced clinical or radiological deterioration. The rate of worsening was higher among patients with functional (39.5%) or CSF disorders (40%). Two patients died (0.4%) during the waiting period, both because of a concurrent disease. We performed a multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine independent covariates associated with maintaining the surgical indication. We found that community SARS-CoV-2 incidence (OR=1.011, p<0.001), degenerative spine (OR=0.296, p=0.027) and expedited indications (OR=6.095, p<0.001) were independent factors for being operated on during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients awaiting neurosurgery experienced significant collateral damage even when they were considered for scheduled procedures.

Mortality and pulmonary complications in emergency general surgery patients with COVID-19: A large international multicenter study

OBJECTIVES

The outcomes of emergency general surgery (EGS) patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection remain unknown. With a multicenter study in 361 hospitals from 52 countries, we sought to study the mortality and pulmonary complications of COVID-19 patients undergoing EGS.

METHODS

All patients 17 years or older and diagnosed preoperatively with COVID-19 between February and July 2020 were included. Emergency general surgery was defined as the urgent/emergent performance of appendectomy, cholecystectomy, or laparotomy. The main outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day pulmonary complications (a composite of acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected mechanical ventilation, or pneumonia). Planned subgroup analyses were performed based on presence of preoperative COVID-related respiratory findings (e.g., cough, dyspnea, need for oxygen therapy, chest radiology abnormality).

RESULTS

A total of 1,045 patients were included, of which 40.1% were female and 50.0% were older than 50 years; 461 (44.1%), 145 (13.9%), and 439 (42.0%) underwent appendectomy, cholecystectomy, and laparotomy, respectively. The overall mortality rate was 15.1% (158 of 1,045 patients), and the overall pulmonary complication rate was 32.9% (344 of 1,045 patients); in the subgroup of laparotomy patients, the rates were 30.6% (134 of 438 patients) and 59.2% (260 of 439 patients), respectively. Subgroup analyses found mortality and pulmonary complication risk to be especially increased in patients with preoperative respiratory findings.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 patients undergoing EGS have significantly high rates of mortality and pulmonary complications, but the risk is most pronounced in those with preoperative respiratory findings.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiologic; Level IV.

Long-standing gustatory and olfactory dysfunction in COVID-19 patients: a prospective study

Purpose

Our study aimed to describe recovery of gustatory dysfunction (GD) and olfactory dysfunction (OD) in COVID-19 patients, and to analyze variables associated with early or late recovery.

Methods

Telephone surveys were administered during an 18-month follow-up after COVID-19 diagnosis. One hundred and thirty-two included patients rated olfactory and gustatory function at each follow-up.

Results

One hundred and twenty-nine patients reported GD, of whom 91 (70.5%) reported severe GD, and 99 patients reported OD, of whom 84 (84.9%) reported severe OD. Seventy-two/129 (55.8%) and 52/99 (52.5%) patients reported an improvement in GD and in OD during the first 7 days from the onset, respectively. At 3-month follow-up, 110/120 patients (85.3%) recovered from GD, while 80/99 patients (80.8%) recovered from OD. At 18-month follow-up, a total of 120/129 patients (93.0%) recovered from GD and 86/99 patients (86.9%) recovered from OD; while 10 patients (7.0%) still reported GD and 13 patients (13.1%) still reported OD. Severe GD/OD at presentation were associated with late complete recovery of taste/smell (p = 0.019 and p = 0.034, respectively). Improvement over the first 7 days from onset was significantly associated with faster recovery (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

More than 80% of patients reported complete recovery of olfactory/gustatory function in the first 3 months after symptom onset. At 18-month follow-up, patients reporting complete recovery of gustatory and olfactory function were 93% and 87%, respectively. Severity of chemosensory dysfunction at the onset was negatively correlated to recovery, and improvement of taste and/or smell function within the first 7 days from symptom onset was significantly associated with early resolution.

When to operate after SARS-CoV-2 infection? A review on the recent consensus recommendation of the DGC/BDC and the DGAI/BDA

Since the eruption of the worldwide SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in late 2019/early 2020, multiple elective surgical interventions were postponed. Through pandemic measures, elective operation capacities were reduced in favour of intensive care treatment for critically ill SARS-CoV-2 patients. Although intermittent low-incidence infection rates allowed an increase in elective surgery, surgeons have to include long-term pulmonary and extrapulmonary complications of SARS-CoV-2 infections (especially "Long Covid") in their perioperative management considerations and risk assessment procedures. This review summarizes recent consensus statements and recommendations regarding the timepoint for surgical intervention after SARS-CoV-2 infection released by respective German societies and professional representatives including DGC/BDC (Germany Society of Surgery/Professional Association of German Surgeons e.V.) and DGAI/BDA (Germany Society of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine/Professional Association of German Anesthesiologists e.V.) within the scope of the recent literature. The current literature reveals that patients with pre- and perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection have a dramatically deteriorated postoperative outcome. Thereby, perioperative mortality is mainly caused by pulmonary and thromboembolic complications. Notably, perioperative mortality decreases to normal values over time depending on the duration of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Perioperative Risk Stratification and Modification

This article discusses the important topic of perioperative risk stratification and the interventions that can be used in the perioperative period for risk modification. It begins with a brief overview of the commonly used scoring systems, risk-prediction models, and assessments of functional capacity and discusses some of the evidence behind each. It then moves on to examine how perioperative risk can be modified through the use of shared decision making, management of multimorbidity, and prehabilitation programs, before considering what the future of risk stratification and modification may hold.

Feasibility and usability of a regional hub model for colorectal cancer services during the COVID-19 pandemic

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic produced unprecedented challenges, at a global level, in the provision of cancer care. With the ongoing need in the delivery of life-saving cancer treatment, the surgical management of patients with colorectal cancer required prompt significant transformation. The aim of this retrospective study is to report the outcome of a bespoke regional Cancer Hub model in the delivery of elective and essential colorectal cancer surgery, at the height of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. 168 patients underwent colorectal cancer surgery from April 1st to June 30th of 2020. Approximately 75% of patients operated upon underwent colonic resection, of which 47% were left-sided, 34% right-sided and 12% beyond total mesorectal excision surgeries. Around 79% of all resectional surgeries were performed via laparotomy, and the remainder 21%, robotically or laparoscopically. Thirty-day complication rate, for Clavien–Dindo IIIA and above, was 4.2%, and 30-day mortality rate was 0.6%. Re-admission rate, within 30 days post-discharge, was 1.8%, however, no patient developed COVID-19 specific complications post-operatively and up to 28 days post-discharge. The established Cancer Hub offered elective surgical care for patients with colorectal cancer in a centralised, timely and efficient manner, with acceptable post-operative outcomes and no increased risk of contracting COVID-19 during their inpatient stay. We offer a practical model of care that can be used when elective surgery “hubs” for streamlined delivery of elective care needs to be established in an expeditious fashion, either due to the COVID-19 pandemic or any other future pandemics.

P-POSSUM as mortality predictor in COVID-19-infected patients submitted to emergency digestive surgery. A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 infection is associated with a higher mortality rate in surgical patients, but surgical risk scores have not been validated in the emergency setting. We aimed to study the capacity for postoperative mortality prediction of the P-POSSUM score in COVID-19-positive patients submitted to emergency general and digestive surgery.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Consecutive patients undergoing emergency general and digestive surgery from March to June 2020, and from March to June 2019 in 25 Spanish hospitals were included in a retrospective cohort study.

MAIN OUTCOME

30-day mortality. P-POSSUM discrimination was quantified by the area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves; calibration was assessed by linear regression slope (β estimator); and sensitivity and specificity were expressed as percentage and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

4988 patients were included: 177 COVID-19-positive; 2011 intra-pandemic COVID-19-negative; and 2800 pre-pandemic. COVID-19-positive patients were older, with higher surgical risk, more advanced pathologies, and higher P-POSSUM values (1.79% vs. 1.09%, p < 0.001, in both the COVID-19-negative and control cohort). 30-day mortality in the COVID-19-positive, intra-pandemic COVID-19-negative and pre-pandemic cohorts were: 12.9%, 4.6%, and 3.2%. The P-POSSUM predictive values in the three cohorts were, respectively: AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.95), 0.89 (95% CI 0.87-0.92), and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88-0.93); β value 0.97 (95% CI 0.74-1.2), 0.99 (95% CI 0.82-1.16), and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.82); sensitivity 83% (95% CI 61-95), 91% (95% CI 84-96), and 89% (95% CI 80-94); and specificity 81% (95% CI 74-87), 76% (95% CI 74-78), and 80% (95% CI 79-82).

CONCLUSION

The P-POSSUM score showed a good predictive capacity for postoperative mortality in COVID-19-positive patients submitted to emergency general and digestive surgery.

Unequal Impact of COVID-19 on Private and Academic Neurosurgical Workforce: Results of an International Survey

Background: Since the COVID-19 outbreak several manuscripts regarding neurosurgical practice during this pandemic have been published. Qualitative studies on how the pandemic affected neurosurgeons, with additional focus on their practice, are still scarce. This study's objective was to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on various aspects of the professional and private life of a homogeneous group of international neurosurgeons affiliated to the European Association of Neurosurgical Societies (EANS). Methods: Neurosurgeons from Europe and abroad were invited to participate in an online survey endorsed by the Individual Membership Committee of the EANS. The survey captured a subjective snapshot of the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on EANS members and was advertised through its Institutional website. In addition to departmental data, personal feeling of safety, financial security, local precautions, number of surgeries performed, changes in daily routine, and other practice-related information were inquired. Differences among practice types were closely reviewed. Results: The survey was distributed between April and May 2020: 204 neurosurgeons participated. Participants were typically active EANS members (73%), consultants (57.9%), from university hospitals (64.5%). Elective surgical practice was still ongoing only for 15% of responders, whereas 18.7% of them had already transitioned to COVID-19 and emergency medical services. While 65.7% of participants thought their institutions were adequately prepared, lack of testing for SARS-CoV-2, and scarcity of personal protective equipment were still a matter of concern for most of them. Overall surgical activity dropped by 68% (cranial by 54%, spine by 71%), and even emergencies decreased by 35%. COVID-19 prompted changes in communication in 74% of departments, 44% increased telemedicine by >50%. While most neurosurgeons had concerns about personal and families' health, financial outlook appeared to be gloomy only for private practitioners. Conclusion: The lockdown imposed in many countries by the COVID-19 outbreak called for immediate modification of working routine and resulted in a dramatic decrease of elective surgical procedures. Neurosurgeons share common concerns but were not equally exposed to the personal health and financial dangers of the ongoing pandemic.

Tocilizumab in SARS-COVID19 following postoperative laparoscopic transhiatal esophagectomy for the adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric tumor: A case report

Introduction and importance

Esophagectomy for esophageal cancer is one of the most challenging surgical procedures, with high rates of morbidity, especially from respiratory complications. SARS-COVID19 represents a health threat nowadays. Peri-operative SARS-COVID19 infection after esophagectomy might negatively affect the postoperative outcomes. The use of tocilizumab as an alternative to reduce the inflammatory response in SARS-COVID19 is an option that has not been described in the literature after esophagectomy.

Case presentation

A SARS-COVID19-vaccinated (CORONAVAC) 73-year-old man with pulmonary emphysema, coronary artery disease, previous asymptomatic pulmonary embolism, and adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction tumor was submitted to laparoscopic transhiatal esophagectomy (ypT2N0M0) after perioperative neoadjuvant chemotherapy. He was also infected with SARS-COVID19, confirmed by PCR test at the 14th postoperative day. During follow-up, mild hypoxemia persisted without evidence of infection except for SARS-COVID19, and a high-flow cannula was required to maintain oxygenation. Tocilizumab was administered following high parameters of a high-flow cannula, and invasive mechanical ventilation was avoided.

Discussion

Besides of the risk of secondary infection, after administration of tocilizumab, the parameters of oxygen supplementation were systematically reduced, and he stayed in the ICU for seven days. He was discharged from the ward six days later. He developed late cervical anastomotic leakage, which was treated with conservative therapy.

Conclusion

Although the patient had high-risk comorbidities, esophagectomy, and SARS-COVID19 infection, the use of tocilizumab was safe and improved the pulmonary recovery.

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Esophagectomy has been considered high morbidity surgery in pandemic COVID-19

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SARS-COVID-19 after esophagectomy could be fatal

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Tocilizumab for SARS COVID19 might be useful avoiding invasive ventilation