Defining reliable disability outcomes in multiple sclerosis

Analyzing recurrent events in multiple sclerosis: a review of statistical models with application to the MSOAC database

Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are susceptible to experience recurrent events of disability progression and relapses. Many studies still focus on analyzing MS events with traditional methods such as Cox proportional hazards, Poisson, and logistic regression that either ignore subsequent events or fail to account for overdispersion and dependency between events. The aim of this study was to conduct a literature review to identify the main recurrent event models, with subsequent application of these models to the Multiple Sclerosis Outcome Assessments Consortium (MSOAC) placebo database. A total of nine main recurrent event models were identified, compared and applied to the MSOAC database to evaluate the effect of the disease course on the number of changes in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and relapse rate. Recurrent events methods have provided more precise estimates than traditional methods. Despite the similarities in common and event-specific estimates for clinical MS outcomes, the interpretations of the parameter estimates resulting from the models are different. Medical researchers should prioritize recurrent event methods in their statistical plans to avoid information loss and improve the precision of estimated effects.

Broad rim lesions are a new pathological and imaging biomarker for rapid disease progression in multiple sclerosis

Current multiple sclerosis (MS) treatments reduce relapse activity but have limited impact on disease progression. Clinical trials targeting progression often fail because of insufficient understanding of its underlying mechanisms. This study analyzed a clinically well-characterized MS autopsy cohort from the Netherland Brain Bank (186 individuals) from which we selected donors exhibiting opposite disease trajectories of slow versus rapid progression. We performed extensive unbiased histology and spatial transcriptomics, which unveiled a distinct MS lesion type marked by an extensive myeloid cell rim with cellular and transcriptional signatures of innate immune activation, inflammatory cytokine production, unfolded protein response and apoptosis. Presence of this particular lesion type was linked to rapid disease progression. An independent translocator protein 18-kDa positron emission tomography study (114 individuals) validates the association between lesions with a broad myeloid cell rim and disease progression in individuals with MS. Our findings offer crucial insights into the mechanisms behind MS progression, identifying broad rim lesions as a biomarker for rapid disease progression and potentially guiding patient selection for future therapeutic trials targeting central nervous system intrinsic inflammation.

Standardized Definition of Progression Independent of Relapse Activity (PIRA) in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

Importance

Progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) is a significant contributor to long-term disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). Prior studies have used varying PIRA definitions, hampering the comparability of study results.

Objective

To compare various definitions of PIRA.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study involved a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from the MSBase registry from July 2004 to July 2023. The participants were patients with MS from 186 centers across 43 countries who had clinically definite relapsing-remitting MS, a complete minimal dataset, and 3 or more documented Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) assessments.

Exposure

Three-hundred sixty definitions of PIRA as combinations of the following criteria: baseline disability (fixed baseline with re-baselining after PIRA, or plus re-baselining after relapses, or plus re-baselining after improvements), minimum confirmation period (6, 12, or 24 months), confirmation magnitude (EDSS score at/above worsening score or at/above threshold compared with baseline), freedom from relapse at EDSS score worsening (90 days prior, 90 days prior and 30 days after, 180 days prior and after, since previous EDSS assessment, or since baseline), and freedom from relapse at confirmation (30 days prior, 90 days prior, 30 days before and after, or between worsening and confirmation).

Main Outcome and Measure

For each definition, we quantified PIRA incidence and persistence (ie, absence of a 3-month confirmed EDSS improvement over ≥5 years).

Results

Among 87 239 patients with MS, 33 303 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria; 24 152 (72.5%) were female and 9151 (27.5%) were male. At the first visits, the mean (SD) age was 36.4 (10.9) years; 28 052 patients (84.2%) had relapsing-remitting MS, and the median (IQR) EDSS score was 2.0 (1.0-3.0). Participants had a mean (SD) 15.1 (11.9) visits over 8.9 (5.2) years. PIRA incidence ranged from 0.141 to 0.658 events per decade and persistence from 0.753 to 0.919, depending on the definition. In particular, the baseline and confirmation period influenced PIRA detection. The following definition yielded balanced incidence and persistence: a significant disability worsening compared with a baseline (reset after each PIRA event, relapse, and EDSS score improvement), in absence of relapses since the last EDSS assessment, confirmed with EDSS scores (not preceded by relapses within 30 days) that remained above the worsening threshold for at least 12 months.

Conclusion and Relevance

Incidence and persistence of PIRA are determined by the definition used. The proposed standardized definition aims to enhance comparability among studies.

Bile acid metabolism in multiple sclerosis is perturbed and associated with the risk of confirmed disability worsening

BACKGROUND

Bile acids (BAs) have emerged as important mediators in neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration, important features of multiple sclerosis (MS). This study aimed to examine serum BA levels in newly diagnosed people with MS (pwMS) and explore their association with disability worsening.

METHODS

The study included 907 pwMS and 907 matched controls from the Swedish population-based EIMS cohort, with clinical follow-up data from the Swedish MS Registry. Serum BA levels were analyzed using liquid chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry. Differential expression analysis was used to study differences in BAs between pwMS and controls. Cox proportional-hazard models were used to assess associations between BA concentrations and confirmed disability worsening (CDW) and the risk of reaching EDSS milestones 4.0 and 6.0.

RESULTS

PwMS had lower concentrations of the primary conjugated BA, glycochenodeoxycholic acid (GCDCA, log2 FC - 0.29, p = 0.009) compared to controls. In relapsing-remitting MS compared to controls, lower concentrations of primary conjugated BAs (log2 FC - 0.30, p = 8.40E - 5), secondary conjugated BAs (log2 FC - 0.18, p = 0.007), and total BAs (log2 FC - 0.22, p = 2.99E - 4) were found. Sex-specific differences were also found, with male pwMS showing more substantial BA alterations. Elevated total BA levels were associated with increased risk for CDW (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.08-1.39), driven mainly by primary conjugated (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.33) and secondary conjugated BAs (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.08-1.39).

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified alterations in serum BA profiles in pwMS compared to controls, with strong associations between conjugated BAs and the risk of disability worsening. These findings underscore the potential role of BAs in MS pathogenesis and disability worsening, suggesting they may be promising targets for future therapeutic interventions. Further research is warranted to clarify the underlying mechanisms of these associations.

Associations of PFAS and OH-PCBs with risk of multiple sclerosis onset and disability worsening

Exposure to per- and polyfluorinated substances (PFAS) and hydroxylated polychlorinated biphenyls (OH-PCBs) is associated with adverse human health effects, including immunosuppression. It is unknown if these substances can affect the course of autoimmune diseases. This study was based on 907 individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) and 907 matched controls, where the MS cases were followed longitudinally using the Swedish MS register. We demonstrate sex- and disease-specific differences in serum PFAS concentrations between individuals with MS and controls. Moreover, two OH-PCBs (4-OH-CB187 and 3-OH-CB153) are associated with an increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis, regardless of sex and immigration status. With a clinical follow-up time of up to 18 years, an increase in serum concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) decreases the risk of confirmed disability worsening in both sexes, as well as perfluoroheptanesulfonic acid (PFHpS) and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), only in males with MS. These results show previously unknown associations between OH-PCBs and the risk of developing MS, as well as the inverse associations between PFAS exposure and the risk of disability worsening in MS.

Conventional MRI-Based Structural Disconnection and Morphometric Similarity Networks and Their Clinical Correlates in Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Although multiple sclerosis (MS) can be conceptualized as a network disorder, brain network analyses typically require advanced MRI sequences not commonly acquired in clinical practice. Using conventional MRI, we assessed cross-sectional and longitudinal structural disconnection and morphometric similarity networks in people with MS (pwMS), along with their relationship with clinical disability.

METHODS

In this longitudinal monocentric study, 3T structural MRI of pwMS and healthy controls (HC) was retrospectively analyzed. Physical and cognitive disabilities were assessed with the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) and the symbol digit modalities test (SDMT), respectively. Demyelinating lesions were automatically segmented, and the corresponding masks were used to assess pairwise structural disconnection between atlas-defined brain regions based on normative tractography data. Using the Morphometric Inverse Divergence method, we computed morphometric similarity between cortical regions based on FreeSurfer surface reconstruction. Using network-based statistics (NBS) and its extension NBS-predict, we tested whether subject-level connectomes were associated with disease status, progression, clinical disability, and long-term confirmed disability progression (CDP), independently from global lesion burden and atrophy.

RESULTS

We studied 461 pwMS (age = 37.2 ± 10.6 years, F/M = 324/137), corresponding to 1,235 visits (mean follow-up time = 1.9 ± 2.0 years, range = 0.1-13.3 years), and 55 HC (age = 42.4 ± 15.7 years; F/M = 25/30). Long-term clinical follow-up was available for 285 pwMS (mean follow-up time = 12.4 ± 2.8 years), 127 of whom (44.6%) exhibited CDP. At baseline, structural disconnection in pwMS was mostly centered around the thalami and cortical sensory and association hubs, while morphometric similarity was extensively disrupted (pFWE < 0.01). EDSS was related to frontothalamic disconnection (pFWE < 0.01) and disrupted morphometric similarity around the left perisylvian cortex (pFWE = 0.02), while SDMT was associated with cortico-subcortical disconnection in the left hemisphere (pFWE < 0.01). Longitudinally, both structural disconnection and morphometric similarity disruption significantly progressed (pFWE = 0.04 and pFWE < 0.01), correlating with EDSS increase (ρ = 0.07, p = 0.02 and ρ = 0.11, p < 0.001), while baseline disconnection predicted long-term CDP (accuracy = 59% [58-60], p = 0.03).

DISCUSSION

Structural disconnection and morphometric similarity networks, as assessed through conventional MRI, are sensitive to MS-related brain damage and its progression. They explain disease-related clinical disability and predict its long-term evolution independently from global lesion burden and atrophy, potentially adding to established MRI measures as network-based biomarkers of disease severity and progression.

Biomarker combinations from different modalities predict early disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis

Objective

Establishing biomarkers to predict multiple sclerosis (MS) disability accrual has been challenging using a single biomarker approach, likely due to the complex interplay of neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration. Here, we aimed to investigate the prognostic value of single and multimodal biomarker combinations to predict four-year disability progression in patients with MS.

Methods

In total, 111 MS patients were followed up for four years to track disability accumulation based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Three clinically relevant modalities (MRI, OCT and blood serum) served as sources of potential predictors for disease worsening. Two key measures from each modality were determined and related to subsequent disability progression: lesion volume (LV), gray matter volume (GMV), retinal nerve fiber layer, ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer, serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) and serum glial fibrillary acidic protein. First, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to identify the discriminative power of individual biomarkers and their combinations. Second, we applied structural equation modeling (SEM) to the single biomarkers in order to determine their causal inter-relationships.

Results

Baseline GMV on its own allowed identification of subsequent EDSS progression based on ROC analysis. All other individual baseline biomarkers were unable to discriminate between progressive and non-progressive patients on their own. When comparing all possible biomarker combinations, the tripartite combination of MRI, OCT and blood biomarkers achieved the highest discriminative accuracy. Finally, predictive causal modeling identified that LV mediates significant parts of the effect of GMV and sNfL on disability progression.

Conclusion

Multimodal biomarkers, i.e. different major surrogates for pathology derived from MRI, OCT and blood, inform about different parts of the disease pathology leading to clinical progression.

Utility of Progression Independent of Relapse Activity as a Trial Outcome in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) is increasingly used as a measure of disability worsening in multiple sclerosis (MS) and is believed to reflect the more chronic neurodegenerative aspect of MS. However, while conceptually appealing, PIRA and its counterpart relapse-associated worsening (RAW) have not been validated as outcome measures for clinical trials. Here, we study the co-occurrence of MRI activity in patients experiencing PIRA and RAW in a clinical trial setting. To illustrate the problem of random variation and measurement error of these new outcomes, we contrasted PIRA and RAW with similarly defined improvement.

METHODS

We reanalyzed individual patient-level data of AFFIRM (NCT00027300) and SENTINEL (NCT00030966), 2 multicenter randomized controlled trials investigating natalizumab compared with interferon beta or placebo in RRMS, with trial visits occurring every 3 months for 2 years. We calculated 3-month-confirmed disability worsening (3M-CDW), RAW, and PIRA events based on worsening on the Expanded Disability Status Scale, 9-hole peg test, or timed 25-foot walk for every trial visit. We related worsening and improvement events to MRI activity throughout follow-up and contrasted worsening of disability with similarly defined improvement.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 2,113 participants, 42.4% of whom developed radiologic disease activity during follow-up. Only 8% of participants had a 3M-CDW event. Although the majority of those 3M-CDW events were PIRA (6.8%) and not RAW (0.9%), 42.2% of participants with PIRA had MRI activity in the first year of follow-up and 30.9% in the second. Improvement events exceeded PIRA events throughout follow-up and occurred in all trial arms. Finally, there was no difference in time-to-PIRA between participants with and without radiologic disease activity.

DISCUSSION

PIRA and RAW in their current definitions do not reliably distinguish between disability worsening due to inflammatory disease activity and neurodegeneration in RRMS. In addition, PIRA and RAW have similar and troubling issues of random variation and measurement error as currently used trial outcome measures. Our analysis requires confirmation in other clinical data sets; a meaningful next step would be to study the co-occurrence of PIRA with radiologic disease activity in a setting with more comprehensive MRI monitoring.

Measuring Disease Progression in Multiple Sclerosis Clinical Drug Trials and Impact on Future Patient Care

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic immune-mediated disease of the central nervous system characterised by inflammation, demyelination and neurodegeneration. Although several drugs are approved for MS, their efficacy in progressive disease is modest. Addressing disease progression as a treatment goal in MS is challenging due to several factors. These include a lack of complete understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms driving MS and the absence of sensitive markers of disease progression in the short-term of clinical trials. MS usually begins at a young age and lasts for decades, whereas clinical research often spans only 1-3 years. Additionally, there is no unifying definition of disease progression. Several drugs are currently being investigated for progressive MS. In addition to new medications, the rise of new technologies and of adaptive trial designs is enabling larger and more integrated data collection. Remote assessments and decentralised clinical trials are becoming feasible. These will allow more efficient and large studies at a lower cost and with less burden on study participants. As new drugs are developed and research evolves, we anticipate a concurrent change in patient care at various levels in the foreseeable future. We conducted a narrative review to discuss the challenges of accurately measuring disease progression in contemporary MS drug trials, some new research trends and their implications for patient care.

Disability progression is a question of definition-A methodological reappraisal by example of primary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Different definitions of disability progression by Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) may influence frequency and/or time to event.

METHODS

In this multicenter cohort study, we included PPMS patients with follow-up ≥24 months and ≥3 available EDSS scores overall (≥1 per year). We applied 672 definitions of disability progression including different minimal EDSS increase, required confirmation and fixed/roving-baseline score.

RESULTS

We analyzed follow-up periods from 131 PPMS patients (median age at baseline 53.0 years [45.0 - 63.0], 51.9 % female, median follow-up 3.9 years [2.6 - 6.0], median baseline EDSS 4.0 [2.5 - 6.0]). The most sensitive definition of a progression event was an unconfirmed increase of ≥0.5 points with a roving baseline (81.8 % event rate). The least sensitive definition was an increase of ≥1.0 points with a fixed baseline, minimal distance to reference 48 weeks, and confirmed at ≥48 weeks (28.4 % event rate). Comparing roving vs. fixed baseline over all cutoffs and confirmation definitions, average time to progression was 227 days shorter applying the roving baseline (1405 days [550 - 2653] vs. 1632 days [760 - 2653]).

CONCLUSIONS

Different definitions of disability progression result in significantly differing rates of disability progression, which may influence study results and create confusion in clinical practice.

The impact of COVID-19 infection on multiple sclerosis disease course across 12 countries: a propensity-score-matched cohort study

Background

The relationship between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse and disease progression remains unclear. Previous studies are limited by small sample sizes and most lack a propensity-matched control cohort.

Objective

To evaluate the effect of COVID-19 infection on MS disease course with a large propensity-matched cohort.

Design

This multi-centre cohort study analysed relapse and disability outcomes post-COVID-19 infection after balancing covariates using a propensity score matching method. The study period was from the 11th of September 2019 to the 16th of February 2023. The mean follow-up period was 1.7 years.

Methods

Data were retrieved from the MSBase Registry. Propensity scores were obtained based on age, sex, disease duration, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), MS course, relapses pre-baseline, disease-modifying therapy (DMT) class and country. Primary outcomes were time to first relapse, annualised relapse rate (ARR) and time to confirm EDSS progression. Secondary outcomes were time to EDSS of 3, 4 or 6. Sensitivity analyses with baseline DMT classes were performed.

Results

The study included 2253 cases and 6441 controls. After matching, there were 2161 cases and an equal number of matched controls. Cases had a significantly higher ARR (ARR = 0.10 [95% CI 0.09-0.11]) compared to controls (ARR = 0.07 [95% CI 0.06-0.08]). Cases had a significantly greater hazard of time to first relapse compared to controls (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.54 [95% CI 1.29-1.84]). There was no association between COVID-19 infection and 24-week EDSS progression (HR = 1.18 [95% CI 0.92-1.52]), or time to EDSS of 3, 4 or 6. For patients on interferons and glatiramer acetate (BRACE), COVID-19 infection was associated with a greater hazard of time to first relapse (HR = 1.83 [95% CI 1.25-2.68]) and greater hazard of time to EDSS of 3 (HR = 2.04 [95% CI 1.06-3.90]) compared to patients on BRACE therapy without COVID-19 infection.

Conclusion

COVID-19 infection was associated with a significantly increased MS relapse rate and a shorter time to first relapse. There was no effect on confirmed EDSS progression over the short term. These results support ongoing COVID-19 risk minimisation strategies to protect patients with MS.

Longitudinal objective assessment of speech in Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Remote objective tests may supplement in-clinic examination to better inform treatment decisions. Previous cross-sectional studies presented objective speech metrics as potential markers of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) disease progression.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the short-term stability and long-term sensitivity of speech metrics to MS progression.

METHODS

We prospectively recorded speech from people with MS at baseline, six, twelve weeks, and at ten months or longer after baseline (1y+). Only people with a definite diagnosis of MS and without other potential causes of dysarthria were included. Speech tasks comprehended 1) a sustained vowel /a/, 2) saying the days of the week, 3) repeating the non-word pa-ta-ka multiple times as fast as possible, 4) reading the Grandfather Passage, and 5) telling a personal story. We selected speech metrics of interest according to their association with MS presence, correlation with general disability, and short-term metric stability in the absence of disease progression. Selected speech metrics were analysed for short- versus long-term changes in the whole MS cohort and in the clinically stable versus progression subgroups at 1y+.

RESULTS

Sixty-nine people with MS participated (76.8 % female, age mean 47.5 ± 11.1 SD, EDSS median 3.5, interquartile range 3.5). Twenty-six unique speech metrics satisfied the suitability criteria. On average, reading rate improved 3.5 % for all people with MS and 6.5 % for slow readers with MS from baseline to the six-week, driven by a reduction in pauses. At 1y+, participants showed a 3.1 % average reduction in vocalization time during the reading task, which was similar in the progression (n = 29) and non-progression (n = 40) groups and thus unrelated to disease progression. Both findings are in the opposite direction of what would be generally expected for deterioration in speech performance and might be attributable to familiarity and training effects. Other speech metrics showed either negligible change or a similar variability between short-term and long-term differences.

CONCLUSION

Most individual long-term changes were small and within short-term variability intervals, irrespective of clinical disease progression. Familiarity and practice effects might have blunted the measurement of change. The present lack of longitudinal sensitivity of speech in MS contradicts previous cross-sectional findings and requires further investigation.

Hospital-Treated Infections and Risk of Disability Worsening in Multiple Sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between infections and disability worsening in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) treated with either B-cell depleting therapy (rituximab) or interferon-beta/glatiramer acetate (IFN/GA).

METHODS

This cohort study spanned from 2000 to 2021, using data from the Swedish MS Registry linked to national health care registries, comprising 8,759 rituximab and 7,561 IFN/GA treatment episodes. The risk of hospital-treated infection was estimated using multivariable Cox models. The association between infections and increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores was assessed using a doubly robust generalized estimating equations model. Additionally, a piece-wise exponential model analyzed events of increased disability beyond defined cut-off values, controlling for relapses, and MRI activity.

RESULTS

Compared with IFN/GA, rituximab displayed increased risk of both inpatient- and outpatient-treated infections (hazard ratio [HR], 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-2.90 and HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.13-1.67, respectively). An inpatient-treated infection was associated with a 0.19-unit increase in EDSS (95% CI, 0.12-0.26). Degree of worsening was greatest for progressive MS, and under IFN/GA treatment, which unlike rituximab, was more commonly associated with MRI activity. After controlling for relapses and MRI activity, inpatient-treated infections were associated with disability worsening in people with relapsing-remitting MS treated with IFN/GA (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.59-2.53), but not in those treated with rituximab.

INTERPRETATION

Compared to IFN/GA, rituximab doubled the infection risk, but reduced the risk of subsequent disability worsening. Further, the risk of worsening after hospital-treated infection was greater with progressive MS than with relapsing-remitting MS. Infection risk should be considered to improve long term outcomes. ANN NEUROL 2024;96:694-703.

Clinical utility of the Lumipulse™ immunoassay for plasma neurofilament light chain in multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

Blood neurofilament light chain (NfL) is robustly associated with disease worsening in multiple sclerosis (MS), though potentially affected by concomitant factors also determining neuro-axonal loss. We investigated the association between plasma NfL (pNfL) measured with Lumipulse™ immunoassay and demographic and clinical variables in MS.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 685 people with MS (age 49.7 ± 12.4 years; sex 65.55% females). On the same day, we collected plasma samples, along with demographics, comorbidities, and clinical variables (MS disease duration, expanded disability status scale (EDSS), Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), descriptor of disease progression, current disease modifying treatment (DMT), number of previous DMTs, evidence of disease activity in the past year (i.e. relapse or MRI new lesions), EDSS progression). pNfL was evaluated using Lumipulse™ fully automated chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay.

RESULTS

On multivariable linear regression model, higher pNfL was associated with higher EDSS (Coeff = 1.73; 95%CI 0.78, 2.68; p < 0.01), recent disease activity (Coeff = 15.70; 95%CI = 5.35, 26.06; p < 0.01), and presence of cardiovascular comorbidity (Coeff = 3.84; 95%CI 0.48, 7.20; p = 0.025). Lower pNfL was found in patients on DMT treatment (Coeff = -10.23; 95%CI -18.42, -2.04; p = 0.015), when compared with no DMT (reference). For 77.81% of our population there was correspondence between pNfL levels and two previously-validated cutoffs.

CONCLUSIONS

pNfL measured using Lumipulse™ confirms known associations with MS activity, disability and treatments, and related confounding (e.g., cardiovascular comorbidity), thus granting further utilization in research and clinical practice.

Effectiveness of cladribine compared to fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Comparisons between cladribine and other potent immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis (MS) are lacking.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effectiveness of cladribine against fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting MS.

METHODS

Patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with cladribine, fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab or alemtuzumab were identified in the global MSBase cohort and two additional UK centres. Patients were followed for ⩾6/12 and had ⩾3 in-person disability assessments. Patients were matched using propensity score. Four pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates (ARRs) and disability outcomes.

RESULTS

The eligible cohorts consisted of 853 (fingolimod), 464 (natalizumab), 1131 (ocrelizumab), 123 (alemtuzumab) or 493 (cladribine) patients. Cladribine was associated with a lower ARR than fingolimod (0.07 vs. 0.12, p = 0.006) and a higher ARR than natalizumab (0.10 vs. 0.06, p = 0.03), ocrelizumab (0.09 vs. 0.05, p = 0.008) and alemtuzumab (0.17 vs. 0.04, p < 0.001). Compared to cladribine, the risk of disability worsening did not differ in patients treated with fingolimod (hazard ratio (HR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-2.47) or alemtuzumab (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.26-2.07), but was lower for patients treated with natalizumab (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94) and ocrelizumab (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78). There was no evidence for a difference in disability improvement.

CONCLUSION

Cladribine is an effective therapy that can be viewed as a step up in effectiveness from fingolimod, but is less effective than the most potent intravenous MS therapies.

Evaluation of machine learning-based classification of clinical impairment and prediction of clinical worsening in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Robust predictive models of clinical impairment and worsening in multiple sclerosis (MS) are needed to identify patients at risk and optimize treatment strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether machine learning (ML) methods can classify clinical impairment and predict worsening in people with MS (pwMS) and, if so, which combination of clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features and ML algorithm is optimal.

METHODS

We used baseline clinical and structural MRI data from two MS cohorts (Berlin: n = 125, Amsterdam: n = 330) to evaluate the capability of five ML models in classifying clinical impairment at baseline and predicting future clinical worsening over a follow-up of 2 and 5 years. Clinical worsening was defined by increases in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Timed 25-Foot Walk Test (T25FW), 9-Hole Peg Test (9HPT), or Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). Different combinations of clinical and volumetric MRI measures were systematically assessed in predicting clinical outcomes. ML models were evaluated using Monte Carlo cross-validation, area under the curve (AUC), and permutation testing to assess significance.

RESULTS

The ML models significantly determined clinical impairment at baseline for the Amsterdam cohort, but did not reach significance for predicting clinical worsening over a follow-up of 2 and 5 years. High disability (EDSS ≥ 4) was best determined by a support vector machine (SVM) classifier using clinical and global MRI volumes (AUC = 0.83 ± 0.07, p = 0.015). Impaired cognition (SDMT Z-score ≤ -1.5) was best determined by a SVM using regional MRI volumes (thalamus, ventricles, lesions, and hippocampus), reaching an AUC of 0.73 ± 0.04 (p = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

ML models could aid in classifying pwMS with clinical impairment and identify relevant biomarkers, but prediction of clinical worsening is an unmet need.

Creating an automated tool for a consistent and repeatable evaluation of disability progression in clinical studies for multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

The lack of standardized disability progression evaluation in multiple sclerosis (MS) hinders reproducibility of clinical study results, due to heterogeneous and poorly reported criteria.

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate the impact of using different parameters when evaluating MS progression, and to introduce an automated tool for reproducible outcome computation.

METHODS

Re-analyzing BRAVO clinical trial data (NCT00605215), we examined the fluctuations in computed treatment effect on confirmed disability progression (CDP) and progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) when varying different parameters. These analyses were conducted using the msprog package for R, which we developed as a tool for CDP assessment from longitudinal data, given a set of criteria that can be specified by the user.

RESULTS

The BRAVO study reported a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.69 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.46-1.02) for CDP. Using the different parameter configurations, the resulting treatment effect on CDP varied considerably, with HRs ranging from 0.59 (95% CI: 0.41-0.86) to 0.72 (95% CI: 0.48-1.07). The treatment effect on PIRA varied from an HR = 0.62 (95% CI: 0.41-0.93) to an HR = 0.65 (95% CI: 0.40-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

The adoption of an open-access tool validated by the research community, with clear parameter specification and standardized output, could greatly reduce heterogeneity in CDP estimation and promote repeatability of study results.

Effectiveness of autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation versus natalizumab in progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Natalizumab was not shown to modify disability in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). This matched observational study compared the effectiveness of autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) with natalizumab in progressive MS.

METHODS

Patients with primary/secondary progressive MS from seven AHSCT MS centres and the MSBase registry, treated with AHSCT or natalizumab, were matched on a propensity score derived from sex, age, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), number of relapses 12/24 months before baseline, time from MS onset, the most effective prior therapy and country. The pairwise-censored groups were compared on hazards of 6-month confirmed EDSS worsening and improvement, relapses and annualised relapse rates (ARRs), using Andersen-Gill proportional hazards models and conditional negative binomial model.

RESULTS

39 patients treated with AHSCT (37 with secondary progressive MS, mean age 37 years, EDSS 5.7, 28% with recent disability progression, ARR 0.54 during the preceding year) were matched with 65 patients treated with natalizumab. The study found no evidence for difference in hazards of confirmed EDSS worsening (HR 1.49, 95% CI 0.70 to 3.14) and improvement (HR 1.50, 95% CI 0.22 to 10.29) between AHSCT and natalizumab over up to 4 years. The relapse activity was also similar while treated with AHSCT and natalizumab (ARR: mean±SD 0.08±0.28 vs 0.08±0.25; HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.39 to 2.82). In the AHSCT group, 3 patients experienced febrile neutropenia during mobilisation, 9 patients experienced serum sickness, 6 patients required intensive care unit admission and 36 patients experienced complications after discharge. No treatment-related deaths were reported.

CONCLUSION

This study does not support the use of AHSCT to control disability in progressive MS with advanced disability and low relapse activity.

Long-term effectiveness of natalizumab in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A propensity-matched study

Treatment options for secondary progressive MS (SPMS) are limited, especially considering that the new drugs recently approved are licensed for actively relapsing patients. We aimed to compare the disability progression in a real-world cohort of SPMS patients treated with natalizumab (NTZ) or interferon beta-1b (IFNb-1b). This multicenter retrospective enrolled patients with a diagnosis of SPMS according to 2014 Lublin criteria, who received NTZ or IFNb-1b for at least 48 months between the 1st June 2012 and the 15th May 2018 ​at 33 Italian MS centers contributing to the Italian MS Registry NTZ or IFNb-1b. Confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale worsening (CEW) and progression independent of relapse (PIRA) were evaluated. In order to correct for non-randomization, a propensity score matching of the groups was performed. Out of 5206 MS patients identified at the time of data extraction, 421 SPMS patients treated with NTZ (224 [53.2%] females, mean age 45.3 ​± ​25.4 years) and 353 with IFNb-1b (133 [37.8%] females, mean age 48.5 ​± ​19.8 years) were enrolled. After applying the matching procedure, 102 patients were retained in the NTZ group and 98 in the IFNb-2b group. The proportion of patients who reached the 48-month 1-point CEW was significantly higher in IFNb-1b compared to NTZ group (58.2% versus 30.4%, p ​= ​0.01). The proportion of patients who developed PIRA at 48 months were significantly higher in IFNb-1b compared to NTZ (72.4% versus 40.2%, p ​= ​0.01). EDSS before treatment initiation and SPMS duration were risk factors for disability progression in terms of PIRA (HR 2.54, 25%CI 1.67-5.7; p ​= ​0.006 and HR 2.04, 25%CI 1.22-3.35; p ​= ​0.01, respectively). Patients treated with IFNb-1b were 1.64 times more to likely to develop PIRA (HR 1.64, 25%CI 1.04-4.87; p ​= ​0.001). Treatment with NTZ in SPMS patients showed more favorable disability outcomes compared to IFNb-1b with beneficial effects over 48 months.

Machine-learning-based prediction of disability progression in multiple sclerosis: An observational, international, multi-center study

BACKGROUND

Disability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking.

METHODS

Data of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS.

FINDINGS

Machine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0⋅71 ± 0⋅01, an AUC-PR of 0⋅26 ± 0⋅02, a Brier score of 0⋅1 ± 0⋅01 and an expected calibration error of 0⋅07 ± 0⋅04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history.

CONCLUSIONS

Good discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This suggests machine-learning models can reliably inform clinicians about the future occurrence of progression and are mature for a clinical impact study.

Novel and Emerging Treatments to Target Pathophysiological Mechanisms in Various Phenotypes of Multiple Sclerosis

The objective is to comprehensively review novel pharmacotherapies used in multiple sclerosis (MS) and the possibilities they may carry for therapeutic improvement. Specifically, we discuss pathophysiological mechanisms worth targeting in MS, ranging from well known targets, such as autoinflammation and demyelination, to more novel and advanced targets, such as neuroaxonal damage and repair. To set the stage, a brief overview of clinical MS phenotypes is provided, followed by a comprehensive recapitulation of both clinical and paraclinical outcomes available to assess the effectiveness of treatments in achieving these targets. Finally, we discuss various promising novel and emerging treatments, including their respective hypothesized modes of action and currently available evidence from clinical trials. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: This comprehensive review discusses pathophysiological mechanisms worth targeting in multiple sclerosis. Various promising novel and emerging treatments, including their respective hypothesized modes of action and currently available evidence from clinical trials, are reviewed.

Efficacy and safety of ocrelizumab in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis: Real-world experience of two Swiss multiple sclerosis centers

BACKGROUND

Ocrelizumab (OCR) is a humanized monoclonal antibody directed against CD-20 positive lymphocytes, mainly B-lymphocytes. OCR is approved for treatment of primary progressive (PPMS) and relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). This study aims to provide real-world safety and efficacy data of people with RMS treated with OCR in two Swiss Multiple Sclerosis (MS) centers.

METHODS

We have conducted a retrospective data analysis using the patient cohorts from the Cantonal Hospital Aarau and Bern University Hospital (RMS: n = 235). Statistical analyses were performed with Mann-Whitney U-Test, Chi-squared test and Spearman-Rho-Correlation. Adjustment for multiple testing was performed by Bonferroni procedure.

RESULTS

After initiation of OCR, there was a decrease in disease activity in RMS patients. In our study, 152/190 (80.0 %) RMS patients fulfilled the criteria for NEDA-3 12 months and 88/104 (84.6 %) showed NEDA-3 24 months after OCR initiation. The most frequent adverse events (AEs) in our study were infections, taking place in 78/235 (33.2 %) RMS patients. COVID-19 was the most common infection, followed by urinary infections and other respiratory infections and infectious adverse events occurred significantly more frequent in patients with reduced IgG serum concentration.

CONCLUSIONS

Our real-world study showed OCR being associated with low rates of any type of MS disease activity as indicated by NEDA-3. The adverse event profile is comparable to the known events especially infections and an association between infections and reduced IgG serum concentration was found.

Efficacy and safety of stem cell transplantation for multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common autoimmune neurological disease affecting patients' motor, sensory, and visual performance. Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) is a medical intervention where a patient is infused with healthy stem cells with the purpose of resetting their immune system. SCT shows remyelinating and immunomodulatory functions in MS patients, representing a potential therapeutic option. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis that included randomized control trials (RCTs) of SCT in MS patients to investigate its clinical efficacy and safety, excluding observational and non-English studies. After systematically searching PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane Library until January 7, 2024, nine RCTs, including 422 patients, were eligible. We assessed the risk of bias (ROB) in these RCTs using Cochrane ROB Tool 1. Data were synthesized using Review Manager version 5.4 and OpenMeta Analyst software. We also conducted subgroup and sensitivity analyses. SCT significantly improved patients expanded disability status scale after 2 months (N = 39, MD =  - 0.57, 95% CI [- 1.08, - 0.06], p = 0.03). SCT also reduced brain lesion volume (N = 136, MD = - 7.05, 95% CI [- 10.69, - 3.4], p = 0.0002). The effect on EDSS at 6 and 12 months, timed 25-foot walk (T25-FW), and brain lesions number was nonsignificant. Significant adverse events (AEs) included local reactions at MSCs infusion site (N = 25, RR = 2.55, 95% CI [1.08, 6.03], p = 0.034) and hematological disorders in patients received immunosuppression and autologous hematopoietic SCT (AHSCT) (N = 16, RR = 2.33, 95% CI [1.23, 4.39], p = 0.009). SCT can improve the disability of MS patients and reduce their brain lesion volume. The transplantation was generally safe and tolerated, with no mortality or significant serious AEs, except for infusion site reactions after mesenchymal SCT and hematological AEs after AHSCT. However, generalizing our results is limited by the sparse number of RCTs conducted on AHSCT. Our protocol was registered on PROSPERO with a registration number: CRD42022324141.

The macular retinal ganglion cell layer as a biomarker for diagnosis and prognosis in multiple sclerosis: A deep learning approach

PURPOSE

The macular ganglion cell layer (mGCL) is a strong potential biomarker of axonal degeneration in multiple sclerosis (MS). For this reason, this study aims to develop a computer-aided method to facilitate diagnosis and prognosis in MS.

METHODS

This paper combines a cross-sectional study of 72 MS patients and 30 healthy control subjects for diagnosis and a 10-year longitudinal study of the same MS patients for the prediction of disability progression, during which the mGCL was measured using optical coherence tomography (OCT). Deep neural networks were used as an automatic classifier.

RESULTS

For MS diagnosis, greatest accuracy (90.3%) was achieved using 17 features as inputs. The neural network architecture comprised the input layer, two hidden layers and the output layer with softmax activation. For the prediction of disability progression 8 years later, accuracy of 81.9% was achieved with a neural network comprising two hidden layers and 400 epochs.

CONCLUSION

We present evidence that by applying deep learning techniques to clinical and mGCL thickness data it is possible to identify MS and predict the course of the disease. This approach potentially constitutes a non-invasive, low-cost, easy-to-implement and effective method.

Best practices in phase III clinical trials on DMTs for multiple sclerosis: a systematic analysis and appraisal of published trials

BACKGROUND

Great advances have been made in the field of multiple sclerosis (MS) therapy due to the publication of numerous randomised clinical trials (RCTs). In this study, we carried out a critical appraisal of phase III RCTs of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for MS published after 2010, intending to identify critical areas of improvement.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of published RCTs on MS from January 2010 until December 2021. RCTs were assessed using an ad-hoc tool. This tool was developed based on existing generic methodological instruments and MS-specific guidelines and methodological papers. It included 14 items grouped in 5 domains: methodological quality, adequacy and measurement of outcomes, adverse event reporting, applicability and relevance of results, and transparency and conflict of interest.

RESULTS

We identified 31 phase III RCTs. Most of them were fully compliant in terms of sample size (87%), randomisation (68%), blinding (61%), participant selection (68%), adverse event reporting (84%) and clinical relevance (52%). Only a few were compliant in terms of participant description (6%), comparison (42%), attrition bias (26%), adequacy of outcome measures (26%), applicability (23%), transparency (36%) and conflict of interest (6%). None were compliant in terms of analysis and reporting of outcomes. The most common limitations related to the absence of comorbidity data, unjustified use of placebo, inadequacy of outcomes design and absence of protocol and/or prospective registration.

CONCLUSIONS

RCTs for DMTs in MS have relevant and frequent limitations. These should be addressed to enhance their quality, transparency and external validity.

Evaluation of the quality and the productivity of neuroradiological reading of multiple sclerosis follow-up MRI scans using an intelligent automation software

PURPOSE

The assessment of multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions on follow-up magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is tedious, time-consuming, and error-prone. Automation of low-level tasks could enhance the radiologist in this work. We evaluate the intelligent automation software Jazz in a blinded three centers study, for the assessment of new, slowly expanding, and contrast-enhancing MS lesions.

METHODS

In three separate centers, 117 MS follow-up MRIs were blindly analyzed on fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), pre- and post-gadolinium T1-weighted images using Jazz by 2 neuroradiologists in each center. The reading time was recorded. The ground truth was defined in a second reading by side-by-side comparison of both reports from Jazz and the standard clinical report. The number of described new, slowly expanding, and contrast-enhancing lesions described with Jazz was compared to the lesions described in the standard clinical report.

RESULTS

A total of 96 new lesions from 41 patients and 162 slowly expanding lesions (SELs) from 61 patients were described in the ground truth reading. A significantly larger number of new lesions were described using Jazz compared to the standard clinical report (63 versus 24). No SELs were reported in the standard clinical report, while 95 SELs were reported on average using Jazz. A total of 4 new contrast-enhancing lesions were found in all reports. The reading with Jazz was very time efficient, taking on average 2min33s ± 1min0s per case. Overall inter-reader agreement for new lesions between the readers using Jazz was moderate for new lesions (Cohen kappa = 0.5) and slight for SELs (0.08).

CONCLUSION

The quality and the productivity of neuroradiological reading of MS follow-up MRI scans can be significantly improved using the dedicated software Jazz.

Efficacy and safety of autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation versus alemtuzumab, ocrelizumab, ofatumumab or cladribine in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (StarMS): protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (aHSCT) is increasingly used as treatment for patients with active multiple sclerosis (MS), typically after failure of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). A recent phase III trial, 'Multiple Sclerosis International Stem Cell Transplant, MIST', showed that aHSCT resulted in prolonged time to disability progression compared with DMTs in patients with relapsing remitting MS (RRMS). However, the MIST trial did not include many of the current high-efficacy DMTs (alemtuzumab, ocrelizumab, ofatumumab or cladribine) in use in the UK within the control arm, which are now offered to patients with rapidly evolving severe MS (RES-MS) who are treatment naïve. There remain, therefore, unanswered questions about the relative efficacy and safety of aHSCT over these high-efficacy DMTs in these patient groups. The StarMS trial (Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation versus Alemtuzumab, Ocrelizumab, Ofatumumab or Cladribine in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis) will assess the efficacy, safety and long-term impact of aHSCT compared with high-efficacy DMTs in patients with highly active RRMS despite the use of standard DMTs or in patients with treatment naïve RES-MS.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

StarMS is a multicentre parallel-group rater-blinded randomised controlled trial with two arms. A total of 198 participants will be recruited from 19 regional neurology secondary care centres in the UK. Participants will be randomly allocated to the aHSCT arm or DMT arm in a 1:1 ratio. Participants will remain in the study for 2 years with follow-up visits at 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 months postrandomisation. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients who achieve 'no evidence of disease activity' during the 2-year postrandomisation follow-up period in an intention to treat analysis. Secondary outcomes include efficacy, safety, cost-effectiveness and immune reconstitution of aHSCT and the four high-efficacy DMTs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the Yorkshire and Humber-Leeds West Research Ethics Committee (20/YH/0061). Participants will provide written informed consent prior to any study specific procedures. The study results will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal and abstracts will be submitted to relevant national and international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN88667898.

Leveraging Real-World Evidence and Observational Studies in Treating Multiple Sclerosis

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are essential for regulatory approval of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), yet their strict selection criteria often lead to limited generalizability. Observational studies using real-world data (RWD) allow for more inclusive heterogeneous cohorts resulting in higher external validity to inform treatment practices. As reviewed in this article, well-designed comparative effectiveness studies are an important application of RWD. Although, like RCTs, observational studies have their own set of limitations, including various biases that may confound results, advanced statistical methods can mitigate many of these limitations. A focus on personalized treatment will continue to add value to individualize MS care.

Prognostic value of single-subject grey matter networks in early multiple sclerosis

The identification of prognostic markers in early multiple sclerosis (MS) is challenging and requires reliable measures that robustly predict future disease trajectories. Ideally, such measures should make inferences at the individual level to inform clinical decisions. This study investigated the prognostic value of longitudinal structural networks to predict 5-year Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). We hypothesized that network measures, derived from MRI, outperform conventional MRI measurements at identifying patients at risk of developing disability progression. This longitudinal, multicentre study within the Magnetic Resonance Imaging in MS (MAGNIMS) network included 406 patients with RRMS (mean age = 35.7 ± 9.1 years) followed up for 5 years (mean follow-up = 5.0 ± 0.6 years). EDSS was determined to track disability accumulation. A group of 153 healthy subjects (mean age = 35.0 ± 10.1 years) with longitudinal MRI served as controls. All subjects underwent MRI at baseline and again 1 year after baseline. Grey matter atrophy over 1 year and white matter lesion load were determined. A single-subject brain network was reconstructed from T1-weighted scans based on grey matter atrophy measures derived from a statistical parameter mapping-based segmentation pipeline. Key topological measures, including network degree, global efficiency and transitivity, were calculated at single-subject level to quantify network properties related to EDSS progression. Areas under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for grey matter atrophy and white matter lesion load, and the network measures and comparisons between ROC curves were conducted. The applied network analyses differentiated patients with RRMS who experience EDSS progression over 5 years through lower values for network degree [H(2) = 30.0, P < 0.001] and global efficiency [H(2) = 31.3, P < 0.001] from healthy controls but also from patients without progression. For transitivity, the comparisons showed no difference between the groups [H(2) = 1.5, P = 0.474]. Most notably, changes in network degree and global efficiency were detected independent of disease activity in the first year. The described network reorganization in patients experiencing EDSS progression was evident in the absence of grey matter atrophy. Network degree and global efficiency measurements demonstrated superiority of network measures in the ROC analyses over grey matter atrophy and white matter lesion load in predicting EDSS worsening (all P-values < 0.05). Our findings provide evidence that grey matter network reorganization over 1 year discloses relevant information about subsequent clinical worsening in RRMS. Early grey matter restructuring towards lower network efficiency predicts disability accumulation and outperforms conventional MRI predictors.

Multiple Sclerosis Progression and Relapse Activity in Children

Importance

Although up to 20% of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) experience onset before 18 years of age, it has been suggested that people with pediatric-onset MS (POMS) are protected against disability because of greater capacity for repair.

Objective

To assess the incidence of and factors associated with progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) and relapse-associated worsening (RAW) in POMS compared with typical adult-onset MS (AOMS) and late-onset MS (LOMS).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study on prospectively acquired data from the Italian MS Register was performed from June 1, 2000, to September 30, 2021. At the time of data extraction, longitudinal data from 73 564 patients from 120 MS centers were available in the register.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes included age-related cumulative incidence and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for PIRA and RAW and associated factors.

Exposures

Clinical and magnetic resonance imaging features, time receiving disease-modifying therapy (DMT), and time to first DMT.

Results

After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the study assessed 16 130 patients with MS (median [IQR] age at onset, 28.7 [22.8-36.2 years]; 68.3% female). Compared with AOMS and LOMS, patients with POMS had less disability, exhibited more active disease, and were exposed to DMT for a longer period. A first 48-week-confirmed PIRA occurred in 7176 patients (44.5%): 558 patients with POMS (40.4%), 6258 patients with AOMS (44.3%), and 360 patients with LOMS (56.8%) (P < .001). Factors associated with PIRA were older age at onset (AOMS vs POMS HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.30-1.55; LOMS vs POMS HR, 2.98; 95% CI, 2.60-3.41; P < .001), longer disease duration (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.04-1.05; P < .001), and shorter DMT exposure (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.64-0.74; P < .001). The incidence of PIRA was 1.3% at 20 years of age, but it rapidly increased approximately 7 times between 21 and 30 years of age (9.0%) and nearly doubled for each age decade from 40 to 70 years (21.6% at 40 years, 39.0% at 50 years, 61.0% at 60 years, and 78.7% at 70 years). The cumulative incidence of RAW events followed a similar trend from 20 to 60 years (0.5% at 20 years, 3.5% at 30 years, 7.8% at 40 years, 14.4% at 50 years, and 24.1% at 60 years); no further increase was found at 70 years (27.7%). Delayed DMT initiation was associated with higher risk of PIRA (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.00-1.34; P = .04) and RAW (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.28-2.39; P = .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

PIRA can occur at any age, and although pediatric onset is not fully protective against progression, this study's findings suggest that patients with pediatric onset are less likely to exhibit PIRA over a decade of follow-up. However, these data also reinforce the benefit for DMT initiation in patients with POMS, as treatment was associated with reduced occurrence of both PIRA and RAW regardless of age at onset.

The Patient-Determined Disease Steps scale is not interchangeable with the Expanded Disease Status Scale in mild to moderate multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The validity, reliability, and longitudinal performance of the Patient-Determined Disease Steps (PDDS) scale is unknown in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) with mild to moderate disability. We aimed to examine the psychometric properties and longitudinal performance of the PDDS.

METHODS

We included relapsing-remitting MS patients with an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of less than 4. Validity and test-retest reliability was examined. Longitudinal data were analysed with mixed-effect modelling and Cohen's kappa for concordance in confirmed disability progression (CDP).

RESULTS

We recruited a total of 1093 participants, of whom 904 had complete baseline data. The baseline correlation between PDDS and EDSS was weak (ρ = 0.45, p < 0.001). PDDS had stronger correlations with patient-reported outcomes (PROs). Conversely, EDSS had stronger correlations with age, disease duration, Kurtzke's functional systems and processing speed test. PDDS test-retest reliability was good to excellent (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.73-0.89). Longitudinally, PDDS was associated with EDSS, age and depression. A higher EDSS score was associated with greater PDSS progression. The magnitude of these associations was small. There was no concordance in CDP as assessed by PDDS and EDSS.

CONCLUSION

The PDDS has greater correlation with other PROs but less correlation with other MS-related outcome measures compared to the EDSS. There was little correlation between PDDS and EDSS longitudinally. Our findings suggest that the PDDS scale is not interchangeable with the EDSS.

Observational studies of treatment effectiveness in neurology

The capacity and power of data from cohorts, registries and randomized trials to provide answers to contemporary clinical questions in neurology has increased considerably over the past two decades. Novel sophisticated statistical methods are enabling us to harness these data to guide treatment decisions, but their complexity is making appraisal of clinical evidence increasingly demanding. In this review, we discuss several methodological aspects of contemporary research of treatment effectiveness in observational data in neurology, aimed at academic neurologists and analysts specializing in outcomes research. The review discusses specifics of the sources of observational data and their key features. It focuses on the limitations of observational data and study design, as well as statistical approaches aimed to overcome these limitations. Among the examples of leading clinical themes typically studied with analyses of observational data, the review discusses methodological approaches to comparative treatment effectiveness, development of diagnostic criteria and definitions of clinical outcomes. Finally, this review provides a brief summary of key points that will help clinical audience critically evaluate design and analytical aspects of studies of disease outcomes using observational data.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis after early worsening of disability

BACKGROUND

Whether progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) heralds earlier onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and more rapid accumulation of disability during SPMS remains to be determined. We investigated the association between early PIRA, relapse-associated worsening (RAW) of disability and time to SPMS, subsequent disability progression and their response to therapy.

METHODS

This observational cohort study included patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) from the MSBase international registry across 146 centres and 39 countries. Associations between the number of PIRA and RAW during early multiple sclerosis (MS) (the initial 5 years of MS onset) were analysed with respect to: time to SPMS using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for disease characteristics; and disability progression during SPMS, calculated as the change of Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scores over time, using multivariable linear regression.

RESULTS

10 692 patients met the inclusion criteria: 3125 (29%) were men and the mean MS onset age was 32.2 years. A higher number of early PIRA (HR=1.50, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.76, p<0.001) and RAW (HR=2.53, 95% CI 2.25 to 2.85, p<0.001) signalled a higher risk of SPMS. A higher proportion of early disease-modifying therapy exposure (per 10%) reduced the effect of early RAW (HR=0.94, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.00, p=0.041) but not PIRA (HR=0.97, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.05, p=0.49) on SPMS risk. No association between early PIRA/RAW and disability progression during SPMS was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Early disability increase during RRMS is associated with a greater risk of SPMS but not the rate of disability progression during SPMS. The deterioration associated with early relapses represents a potentially treatable risk factor of SPMS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12605000455662).

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years.

METHODS

Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement.

RESULTS

23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability.

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Progression events defined by home-based assessment of motor function in multiple sclerosis: protocol of a prospective study

Background

This study relates to emerging concepts of appropriate trial designs to evaluate effects of intervention on the accumulation of irreversible disability in multiple sclerosis (MS). Major starting points of our study are the known limitations of current definitions of disability progression by rater-based clinical assessment and the high relevance of gait and balance dysfunctions in MS. The study aims to explore a novel definition of disease progression using repeated instrumental assessment of relevant motor functions performed by patients in their home setting.

Methods

The study is a prospective single-center observational cohort study with the primary outcome acquired by participants themselves, a home-based assessment of motor functions based on an RGB-Depth (RGB-D) camera, a camera that provides both depth (D) and color (RGB) data. Participants are instructed to perform and record a set of simple motor tasks twice a day over a one-week period every 6 months. Assessments are complemented by a set of questionnaires. Annual research grade assessments are acquired at dedicated study visits and include clinical ratings as well as structural imaging (MRI and optical coherence tomography). In addition, clinical data from routine visits is provided semiannually by treating neurologists. The observation period is 24 months for the primary endpoint with an additional clinical assessment at 27 month to confirm progression defined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Secondary analyses aim to explore the time course of changes in motor parameters and performance of the novel definition against different alternative definitions of progression in MS. The study was registered at Deutsches Register für Klinische Studien (DRKS00027042).

Discussion

The study design presented here investigates disease progression defined by marker-less home-based assessment of motor functions against 3-month confirmed disease progression (3 m-CDP) defined by the EDSS. The technical approach was chosen due to previous experience in lab-based settings. The observation time per participant of 24, respectively, 27 months is commonly conceived as the lower limit needed to study disability progression. Defining a valid digital motor outcome for disease progression in MS may help to reduce observation times in clinical trials and add confidence to the detection of progression events in MS.

Alemtuzumab following natalizumab is more effective in adult-onset than paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis

Background

Paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) therapeutic approach derives from of adult-onset multiple sclerosis (AOMS) tailored algorithms.

Objectives

To evaluate in a common clinical scenario the efficacy and safety of alemtuzumab (ALZ) in POMS and AOMS.

Methods

All patients switching from natalizumab (NTZ) to ALZ for safety concerns (high anti-John Cunningham Virus Antibody Index value, anti-JCV Index) were enrolled in this single-centre, retrospective, case-control open-label study.

Results

Ten POMS and 27 AOMS were followed up for 51.3 months. After month 12, we found a lower risk of clinical or radiological relapses among AOMS patients and among patients with older age at ALZ (both p < 0.05). Survival analysis revealed an increased risk of relapse in POMS compared with AOMS (logrank p = 0.00498) and patients starting ALZ before age 22.75 years than the elder ones (logrank p = 0.0018). Survival analysis did not disclose any difference between AOMS and POMS (logrank p = 0.27) in terms of progression independent of any relapse activity (PIRA). In addition, no evidence of relapse-associated worsening was observed. Autoimmune events were reported by 5 AOMS and no POMS (29.4% versus 0.0%, p = 0.057), and survival analysis was not significant (logrank p = 0.0786).

Conclusion

ALZ seems more effective in AOMS than in POMS following NTZ. These findings underrate ALZ effectiveness when shifting from NTZ in POMS.

Association between Daytime Sleepiness, Fatigue and Autonomic Responses during Head-Up Tilt Test in Multiple Sclerosis Patients

We aimed to assess dynamic changes in hemodynamic and autonomic function in response to the head-up tilt test (HUTT) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to healthy controls (HCs) and evaluate its relationship with the patients' reported daytime sleepiness and fatigue symptoms. A total of 58 MS patients and 30 HCs were included in the analysis. Fatigue and sleepiness were evaluated using the Chalder Fatigue Scale (CFQ) and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), respectively. Hemodynamic response, baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP) variability (SBPV, DBPV) parameters were calculated at rest, and in response to the HUTT. The MS patients displayed attenuated BP responses coupled with a more pronounced decrease in cardiac index as well as a reduced increase in the low frequency (LFnu) of DBPV (p = 0.021) and the sympathovagal ratio (p = 0.031) in the latter-phase orthostatic challenge compared to HCs. In MS patients, the ESS score showed no correlation with CFQ or clinical disease outcomes, but exhibited a moderate correlation with LFnu of BPVrest. Fatigue and disease variants predicted blood pressure response to HUTT. These findings underscore the importance of subjective daytime sleepiness and fatigue symptoms and their role in blood pressure regulation in MS patients.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS.

METHODS

We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS.

RESULTS

Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Rituximab vs Ocrelizumab in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

Importance

Ocrelizumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody targeted against CD20+ B cells, reduces the frequency of relapses by 46% and disability worsening by 40% compared with interferon beta 1a in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). Rituximab, a chimeric monoclonal anti-CD20 agent, is often prescribed as an off-label alternative to ocrelizumab.

Objective

To evaluate whether the effectiveness of rituximab is noninferior to ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting MS.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was an observational cohort study conducted between January 2015 and March 2021. Patients were included in the treatment group for the duration of study therapy and were recruited from the MSBase registry and Danish MS Registry (DMSR). Included patients had a history of relapsing-remitting MS treated with ocrelizumab or rituximab, a minimum 6 months of follow-up, and sufficient data to calculate the propensity score. Patients with comparable baseline characteristics were 1:6 matched with propensity score on age, sex, MS duration, disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale), prior relapse rate, prior therapy, disease activity (relapses, disability accumulation, or both), magnetic resonance imaging lesion burden (missing values imputed), and country.

Exposure

Treatment with ocrelizumab or rituximab after 2015.

Main outcomes and Measures

Noninferiority comparison of annualized rate of relapses (ARRs), with a prespecified noninferiority margin of 1.63 rate ratio. Secondary end points were relapse and 6-month confirmed disability accumulation in pairwise-censored groups.

Results

Of the 6027 patients with MS who were treated with ocrelizumab or rituximab, a total of 1613 (mean [SD] age; 42.0 [10.8] years; 1089 female [68%]) fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis (898 MSBase, 715 DMSR). A total of 710 patients treated with ocrelizumab (414 MSBase, 296 DMSR) were matched with 186 patients treated with rituximab (110 MSBase, 76 DMSR). Over a pairwise censored mean (SD) follow-up of 1.4 (0.7) years, the ARR ratio was higher in patients treated with rituximab than in those treated with ocrelizumab (rate ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4; ARR, 0.20 vs 0.09; P < .001). The cumulative hazard of relapses was higher among patients treated with rituximab than those treated with ocrelizumab (hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.5-3.0). No difference in the risk of disability accumulation was observed between groups. Results were confirmed in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

In this noninferiority comparative effectiveness observational cohort study, results did not show noninferiority of treatment with rituximab compared with ocrelizumab. As administered in everyday practice, rituximab was associated with a higher risk of relapses than ocrelizumab. The efficacy of rituximab and ocrelizumab administered at uniform doses and intervals is being further evaluated in randomized noninferiority clinical trials.

Association between clinic-level quality of care and patient-level outcomes in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) quality of care guidelines are consensus-based. The effectiveness of the recommendations is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether clinic-level quality of care affects clinical and patient-reported outcomes.

METHODS

This nationwide observational cohort study included patients with adult-onset MS in the Swedish MS registry with disease onset 2005-2015. Clinic-level quality of care was measured by four indicators: visit density, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) density, mean time to commencement of disease-modifying therapy, and data completeness. Outcomes were Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and patient-reported symptoms measured by the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29). Analyses were adjusted for individual patient characteristics and disease-modifying therapy exposure.

RESULTS

In relapsing MS, all quality indicators benefitted EDSS and physical symptoms. Faster treatment, frequent visits, and higher data completeness benefitted psychological symptoms. After controlling for all indicators and individual treatment exposures, faster treatment remained independently associated with lower EDSS (-0.06, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.01, -0.10) and more frequent visits were associated with milder physical symptoms (MSIS-29 physical score: -16.2%, 95% CI: -1.8%, -29.5%). Clinic-level quality of care did not affect any outcomes in progressive-onset disease.

CONCLUSION

Certain quality of care indicators correlated to disability and patient-reported outcomes in relapse-onset but not progressive-onset disease. Future guidelines should consider recommendations specific to disease course.

Learning from pseudo-labels: deep networks improve consistency in longitudinal brain volume estimation

Introduction

Brain atrophy is a critical biomarker of disease progression and treatment response in neurodegenerative diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS). Confounding factors such as inconsistent imaging acquisitions hamper the accurate measurement of brain atrophy in the clinic. This study aims to develop and validate a robust deep learning model to overcome these challenges; and to evaluate its impact on the measurement of disease progression.

Methods

Voxel-wise pseudo-atrophy labels were generated using SIENA, a widely adopted tool for the measurement of brain atrophy in MS. Deformation maps were produced for 195 pairs of longitudinal 3D T1 scans from patients with MS. A 3D U-Net, namely DeepBVC, was specifically developed overcome common variances in resolution, signal-to-noise ratio and contrast ratio between baseline and follow up scans. The performance of DeepBVC was compared against SIENA using McLaren test-retest dataset and 233 in-house MS subjects with MRI from multiple time points. Clinical evaluation included disability assessment with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and traditional imaging metrics such as lesion burden.

Results

For 3 subjects in test-retest experiments, the median percent brain volume change (PBVC) for DeepBVC and SIENA was 0.105 vs. 0.198% (subject 1), 0.061 vs. 0.084% (subject 2), 0.104 vs. 0.408% (subject 3). For testing consistency across multiple time points in individual MS subjects, the mean (± standard deviation) PBVC difference of DeepBVC and SIENA were 0.028% (± 0.145%) and 0.031% (±0.154%), respectively. The linear correlation with baseline T2 lesion volume were r = -0.288 (p < 0.05) and r = -0.249 (p < 0.05) for DeepBVC and SIENA, respectively. There was no significant correlation of disability progression with PBVC as estimated by either method (p = 0.86, p = 0.84).

Discussion

DeepBVC is a deep learning powered brain volume change estimation method for assessing brain atrophy used T1-weighted images. Compared to SIENA, DeepBVC demonstrates superior performance in reproducibility and in the context of common clinical scan variances such as imaging contrast, voxel resolution, random bias field, and signal-to-noise ratio. Enhanced measurement robustness, automation, and processing speed of DeepBVC indicate its potential for utilisation in both research and clinical environments for monitoring disease progression and, potentially, evaluating treatment effectiveness.

Comparative Effectiveness of Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant vs Fingolimod, Natalizumab, and Ocrelizumab in Highly Active Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

Importance

Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant (AHSCT) is available for treatment of highly active multiple sclerosis (MS).

Objective

To compare the effectiveness of AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting MS by emulating pairwise trials.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This comparative treatment effectiveness study included 6 specialist MS centers with AHSCT programs and international MSBase registry between 2006 and 2021. The study included patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with AHSCT, fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab with 2 or more years study follow-up including 2 or more disability assessments. Patients were matched on a propensity score derived from clinical and demographic characteristics.

Exposure

AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab.

Main outcomes

Pairwise-censored groups were compared on annualized relapse rates (ARR) and freedom from relapses and 6-month confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score worsening and improvement.

Results

Of 4915 individuals, 167 were treated with AHSCT; 2558, fingolimod; 1490, natalizumab; and 700, ocrelizumab. The prematch AHSCT cohort was younger and with greater disability than the fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab cohorts; the matched groups were closely aligned. The proportion of women ranged from 65% to 70%, and the mean (SD) age ranged from 35.3 (9.4) to 37.1 (10.6) years. The mean (SD) disease duration ranged from 7.9 (5.6) to 8.7 (5.4) years, EDSS score ranged from 3.5 (1.6) to 3.9 (1.9), and frequency of relapses ranged from 0.77 (0.94) to 0.86 (0.89) in the preceding year. Compared with the fingolimod group (769 [30.0%]), AHSCT (144 [86.2%]) was associated with fewer relapses (ARR: mean [SD], 0.09 [0.30] vs 0.20 [0.44]), similar risk of disability worsening (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 0.91-3.17), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.71-4.26) over 5 years. Compared with natalizumab (730 [49.0%]), AHSCT (146 [87.4%]) was associated with marginally lower ARR (mean [SD], 0.08 [0.31] vs 0.10 [0.34]), similar risk of disability worsening (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.54-2.09), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.72-4.18) over 5 years. AHSCT (110 [65.9%]) and ocrelizumab (343 [49.0%]) were associated with similar ARR (mean [SD], 0.09 [0.34] vs 0.06 [0.32]), disability worsening (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 0.61-5.08), and disability improvement (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.66-2.82) over 3 years. AHSCT-related mortality occurred in 1 of 159 patients (0.6%).

Conclusion

In this study, the association of AHSCT with preventing relapses and facilitating recovery from disability was considerably superior to fingolimod and marginally superior to natalizumab. This study did not find evidence for difference in the effectiveness of AHSCT and ocrelizumab over a shorter available follow-up time.

Is breastfeeding in MS harmful or not? An answer from real-world Czech data

INTRODUCTION

The influence of breastfeeding and it´s duration on the course of multiple sclerosis (MS) is unclear. Here we analyzed a real-world data for breastfeeding women with MS and their disease course collected from a Czech national registry ReMuS.

OBJECTIVES

To identify risk factors associated with not initiating breastfeeding after delivery, to analyze the impact of breastfeeding on the MS disease course, evaluate the assumption, that breastfeeding is not harmful in MS patients, and compare the disease course by breastfeeding status.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using propensity score matching we compared Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), confirmed disease worsening (CDW) and annual relapse rate (ARR) in breastfeeding and non-breastfeeding MS patients according to disease duration, disease modifying treatment (DMT) before pregnancy, last EDSS score before conception, age, and ARR during pregnancy. We also compared these parameters between breastfeeding patients not using a DMT and non-breastfeeding patients who resumed DMT within 3 months after delivery. EDSS, ARR, and CDW were collected at 12, 24, and 36 months after delivery.

RESULTS

A total of 1681 pregnancies that ended in delivery were analyzed from 2013 through 2020. Change in ARR and EDSS values and 6-months CDW did not significantly differ between the analyzed groups. Compared with non-breastfeeding women who resumed DMT early after delivery, breastfeeding women with MS did not experience worse clinical outcomes even without initiating a DMT.

DISCUSSION

Breastfeeding in Czech women with MS did not negatively affect the disease course and can be supported. Patients with MS can be treated with certain DMTs alongside breastfeeding and there is no need to stop breastfeeding, if the patient is clinically stable.

Does initial high efficacy therapy in multiple sclerosis surpass escalation treatment strategy? A comparison of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the Czech and Swedish national multiple sclerosis registries

BACKGROUND

In relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) the most common treatment strategy has been to start with low-moderate efficacy disease modifying therapy (LE-DMT) and to escalate to more efficacious treatments in cases of breakthrough disease activity. However, recent evidence suggests a better outcome in patients commencing with moderate-high efficacy DMT (HE-DMT) immediately after clinical onset.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to compare disease activity and disability outcomes in patients treated with the two alternative strategies using the Swedish and Czech national multiple sclerosis registries, taking advantage of the fact that the relative frequency of each strategy differs markedly between these two countries.

METHODS

Adult RRMS patients who initiated their first-ever DMT between 2013 and 2016 and were included in the Swedish MS register were compared with a similar cohort from the MS register of the Czech Republic using propensity score overlap weighting as a balancing method. The main outcomes of interest were time to confirmed disability worsening (CDW), time to achieve an expanded disability status scale (EDSS) value of 4, time to relapse, and time to confirmed disability improvement (CDI). To support the results, a sensitivity analysis focusing solely on patients from Sweden starting with HE-DMT and patients from the Czech Republic starting with LE-DMT was performed.

RESULTS

In the Swedish cohort, 42% of patients received HE-DMT as initial therapy compared to 3.8% of patients in the Czech cohort. The time to CDW was not significantly different between the Swedish and Czech cohorts (p-value 0.2764), with hazard ratio (HR) of 0.89 and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.77-1.03. Patients from the Swedish cohort exhibited better outcomes for all remaining variables. The risk of reaching EDSS 4 was reduced by 26% (HR 0.74, 95%CI 0.6-0.91, p-value 0.0327), the risk of relapse was reduced by 66% (HR 0.34, 95%CI 0.3-0.39, p-value <0.001), and the probability of CDI was three times higher (HR 3.04, 95%CI 2.37-3.9, p-value <0.001).

CONCLUSION

The analysis of the Czech and the Swedish RRMS cohorts confirmed a better prognosis for patients in Sweden, where a significant proportion of patients received HE-DMT as initial treatment.

Granzyme B + CD8 + T cells with terminal differentiated effector signature determine multiple sclerosis progression

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) leads to demyelination and neurodegeneration with autoimmune responses in central nervous system. Patients begin with a relapsing-remitting (RR) course, and more than 80% of them may advance to secondary progressive MS (SPMS), which is characteristic for the gradual decline of neurological functions without demonstrated treating method to prevent. This study aims to investigate the contribution of peripheral CD8 + T cells during the conversion from RRMS to SPMS, as well as reveal potential diagnostic signature in distinguishing SPMS.

METHODS

Single-cell RNA sequencing was employed to reveal the heterogeneity of CD8 + T cells between SPMS and RRMS. In addition, flow cytometry was used to further characterized CD8 + T cell dynamic changes in patients. T cell receptor sequencing was performed to detect the clonal expansion of MS. Using Tbx21 siRNA, T-bet was confirmed to manipulate GzmB expression. The correlation between GzmB + CD8 + T cell subsets and clinical characteristics of MS and their potential diagnostic value for SPMS were evaluated by generalized linear regression models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve respectively.

RESULTS

Other than diminished naïve CD8 + T cell, elevating of activated CD8 + T cell subsets were observed in SPMS patients. Meanwhile, this aberrant amplified peripheral CD8 + T cells not only exhibited terminal differentiated effector (EMRA) phenotype with GzmB expression, but also possessed distinct trajectory from clonal expansion. In addition, T-bet acted as a key transcriptional factor that elicited GzmB expression in CD8 + T_EMRA cells of patients with SPMS. Finally, the expression of GzmB in CD8 + T cells was positively correlated with disability and progression of MS, and could effectively distinguish SPMS from RRMS with a high accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study mapped peripheral immune cells of RRMS and SPMS patients and provided an evidence for the involvement of GzmB + CD8 + T_EMRA cells in the progression of MS, which could be used as a diagnostic biomarker for distinguishing SPMS from RRMS.

Emerging Perspectives on MRI Application in Multiple Sclerosis: Moving from Pathophysiology to Clinical Practice

MRI plays a central role in the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) and in the monitoring of disease course and treatment response. Advanced MRI techniques have shed light on MS biology and facilitated the search for neuroimaging markers that may be applicable in clinical practice. MRI has led to improvements in the accuracy of MS diagnosis and a deeper understanding of disease progression. This has also resulted in a plethora of potential MRI markers, the importance and validity of which remain to be proven. Here, five recent emerging perspectives arising from the use of MRI in MS, from pathophysiology to clinical application, will be discussed. These are the feasibility of noninvasive MRI-based approaches to measure glymphatic function and its impairment; T1-weighted to T2-weighted intensity ratio to quantify myelin content; classification of MS phenotypes based on their MRI features rather than on their clinical features; clinical relevance of gray matter atrophy versus white matter atrophy; and time-varying versus static resting-state functional connectivity in evaluating brain functional organization. These topics are critically discussed, which may guide future applications in the field.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS).

METHODS

We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity.

CONCLUSIONS

DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

The impact of relapse definition and measures of durability on MS clinical trial outcomes

BACKGROUND

Definitions of trial measures are consequential to accurately capturing outcomes and cross-trial comparability, particularly for derivative measures.

OBJECTIVE

Using CombiRx, examine the impact of relapse definition on endpoints and evaluate the durability of progression measures in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS).

METHODS

CombiRx relapse types were distinguished by the presence or timing of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) increase. Using the broadest definition of relapse, progression endpoints were assessed in patients without relapses on trial. Durability compared EDSS at study end and time of worsening.

RESULTS

Broadening relapse definition to the most inclusive definition increased annualized relapse rate (ARR) threefold in all arms and decreased progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA), defined as 6-month confirmed disability worsening (6M CDW) without relapse, by 44%. Neither PIRA nor PIA (progression independent of any inflammatory activity) guaranteed durable worsening, with 43% and 40%, respectively, improving by end of study. Multivariate analysis showed two CDW events, not relapse, predicted durability among patients meeting 6M CDW.

CONCLUSIONS

The stringency of relapse definition impacted absolute ARR and composite endpoints in RRMS. Despite the most generous relapse definition, 43% of patients meeting PIRA on trial did not have durable worsening suggesting that relapse definition and durability should be considered to avoid overestimating progression in RRMS trials.

The comparative effectiveness of fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab are commonly used in the second-line treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). However, these have only been compared in observational studies, not in controlled trials, with limited and inconclusive results being reported. A comparison of their effect on relapse and disability in a real-world setting is therefore needed.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy of fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in reducing disease activity in RRMS.

METHODS

This multicenter, retrospective observational study was carried out with prospectively collected data from 16 centers. All consecutive RRMS patients treated with fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab were included. Data for relapses, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were collected. Patients were matched using propensity scores. Annualized relapse rates (ARR), time to first relapse, and disability accumulation were compared.

RESULTS

Propensity score matching retained 736 patients in the fingolimod versus 370 in the natalizumab groups, 762 in the fingolimod versus 434 in the ocrelizumab groups, and 310 in the natalizumab versus 310 in the ocrelizumab groups for final analyses. Mean ARR decreased markedly from baseline after treatment in all three treatment groups. Mean on-treatment ARR was lower in natalizumab-treated patients (0.09, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.07-0.12) than in those treated with fingolimod (0.17, 0.15-0.19, p<0.001), ocrelizumab (0.08, 0.06-0.11), and fingolimod (0.14, 0.12-0.16, p=0.001). No significant difference was observed in mean on-treatment ARR between patients treated with natalizumab (0.08, 0.06-0.11) and ocrelizumab (0.09, 0.07-0.12, p=0.54). Compared to fingolimod, the natalizumab and ocrelizumab groups exhibited a higher percentage of relapse-free patients and a lower percentage of MRI-active patients at year 1. No significance differences in disability accumulation were determined between the therapies.

CONCLUSION

Natalizumab and ocrelizumab exhibited similar effects on relapse control, and both were associated with better relapse control than fingolimod. The effects of the three therapies on disability outcomes were similar.