Predation risk assessment based on uncertain information: interacting effects of known and unknown cues

Uncertainty about predation risk: a conceptual review

Uncertainty has long been of interest to economists and psychologists and has more recently gained attention among ecologists. In the ecological world, animals must regularly make decisions related to finding resources and avoiding threats. Here, we describe uncertainty as a perceptual phenomenon of decision-makers, and we focus specifically on the functional ecology of such uncertainty regarding predation risk. Like all uncertainty, uncertainty about predation risk reflects informational limitations. When cues are available, they may be novel (i.e. unknown information), incomplete, unreliable, overly abundant and complex, or conflicting. We review recent studies that have used these informational limitations to induce uncertainty of predation risk. These studies have typically used either over-responses to novelty (i.e. neophobia) or memory attenuation as proxies for measuring uncertainty. Because changes in the environment, particularly unpredictable changes, drive informational limitations, we describe studies assessing unpredictable variance in spatio-temporal predation risk, intensity of predation risk, predator encounter rate, and predator diversity. We also highlight anthropogenic changes within habitats that are likely to have dramatic impacts on information availability and thus uncertainty in antipredator decisions in the modern world.

Microhabitat conditions drive uncertainty of risk and shape neophobic responses in Trinidadian guppies, Poecilia reticulata

In response to uncertain risks, prey may rely on neophobic phenotypes to reduce the costs associated with the lack of information regarding local conditions. Neophobia has been shown to be driven by information reliability, ambient risk and predator diversity, all of which shape uncertainty of risk. We similarly expect environmental conditions to shape uncertainty by interfering with information availability. In order to test how environmental variables might shape neophobic responses in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata), we conducted an in situ field experiment of two high-predation risk guppy populations designed to determine how the 'average' and 'variance' of several environmental factors might influence the neophobic response to novel predator models and/or novel foraging patches. Our results suggest neophobia is shaped by water velocity, microhabitat complexity, pool width and depth, as well as substrate diversity and heterogeneity. Moreover, we found differential effects of the 'average' and 'variance' environmental variables on food- and predator-related neophobia. Our study highlights that assessment of neophobic drivers should consider predation risk, various microhabitat conditions and neophobia being tested. Neophobic phenotypes are expected to increase the probability of prey survival and reproductive success (i.e. fitness), and are therefore likely linked to population health and species survival. Understanding the drivers and consequences of uncertainty of risk is an increasingly pressing issue, as ecological uncertainty increases with the combined effects of climate change, anthropogenic disturbances and invasive species.

Assessing effects of predator density and diversity on neophobia in Trinidadian guppies

Neophobic predator avoidance, where prey actively avoid novel stimuli, is thought to allow prey to cope with the inability to predict predation risk (i.e. uncertainty) while reducing the costs associated with learning. Recent studies suggest that neophobia is elicited as a response to unpredictable and elevated mean predation risk, and is linked to experience with diverse novel cues. However, no research has disentangled the effects of predator density and diversity on neophobia. We conditioned Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) to high- or low-diversity predator model treatments paired with high, intermediate, or low concentrations of conspecific alarm cues as a proxy for predator density. We tested behavioural responses to a novel stimulus vs. a water control to determine differences in neophobia among treatments. We found that neophobic shoaling behaviour was shaped by mean risk (predator density). However both density and diversity shaped neophobic freezing, and to a weaker extent, neophobic area use. Our research suggests that predator diversity might elicit neophobic responses in guppies, but only when mean risk is high enough. The relationship between neophobia and components of predation risk is becoming increasingly relevant as ecological uncertainty becomes more prevalent with increasing climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and invasive species.

Predation risk shapes the use of conflicting personal risk and social safety information in guppies

When faced with uncertainty, animals can benefit from using multiple sources of information in order to make an optimal decision. However, information sources (e.g., social and personal cues) may conflict, while also varying in acquisition cost and reliability. Here, we assessed behavioral decisions of Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata), in situ, when presented with conflicting social and personal information about predation risk. We positioned foraging arenas within high- and low-predation streams, where guppies were exposed to a personal cue in the form of conspecific alarm cues (a known indicator of risk), a novel cue, or a control. At the same time, a conspecific shoal (a social safety cue) was either present or absent. When social safety was absent, guppies in both populations showed typical avoidance responses towards alarm cues, and high-predation guppies showed their typical avoidance of novel cues (i.e., neophobia). However, the presence of social safety cues was persuasive, overriding the neophobia of high-predation guppies and emboldening low-predation guppies to ignore alarm cues. Our experiment is one of the first to empirically assess the use of safety and risk cues in prey and suggests a threshold level of ambient risk which dictates the use of conflicting social and personal information.

Temporally variable predation risk and fear retention in Trinidadian guppies

Predation fear is a unifying theme across vertebrate taxa. Here, we explored how the frequency and duration of predation risk affects postrisk fear behavior in Trinidadian guppies. We first exposed individuals to visual cues of potential predators for 3 days, either frequently (6×/day) or infrequently (1×/day). Each exposure lasted for either a relatively brief (5 min) or long (30 min) duration, whereas a control group consisted of no risk exposures. One day later, we quantified guppy behavior. All background risk treatments induced a fear response toward a novel odor (i.e., neophobia), and individuals previously exposed to frequent bouts of brief risk showed elevated baseline fear. Although neophobic responses were initially similar across risk treatments (1 day later), retention of this response differed. After 8 days, only individuals previously exposed to brief bouts of risk (both frequent and infrequent) maintained neophobic responses, whereas their initially higher level of baseline fear remained elevated but was no longer significantly different from the control. These results increase our understanding of temporal factors that affect the intensity and retention of fear that persists after risk exposure, which may have applications across vertebrates in relation to problems with fearful phenotypes.

Sender and receiver experience alters the response of fish to disturbance cues

Predation is a pervasive selection pressure, shaping morphological, physiological, and behavioral phenotypes of prey species. Recent studies have begun to examine how the effects of individual experience with predation risk shapes the use of publicly available risk assessment cues. Here, we investigated the effects of prior predation risk experience on disturbance cue production and use by Trinidadian guppies Poecilia reticulata under laboratory conditions. In our first experiment, we demonstrate that the response of guppies from a high predation population (Lopinot River) was dependent upon the source of disturbance cue senders (high vs. low predation populations). However, guppies collected from a low predation site (Upper Aripo River) exhibited similar responses to disturbance cues, regardless of the sender population. In our second experiment, we used laboratory strain guppies exposed to high versus low background risk conditions. Our results show an analogous response patterns as shown for our first experiment. Guppies exposed to high background risk conditions exhibited stronger responses to the disturbance cues collected from senders exposed to high (vs. low) risk conditions and guppies exposed to low risk conditions were not influenced by sender experience. Combined, our results suggest that experience with background predation risk significantly impacts both the production of and response to disturbance cues in guppies.

An ecological framework of neophobia: from cells to organisms to populations

Neophobia is the fear of novel stimuli or situations. This phenotype has recently received much ecological attention, primarily in the context of decision making. Here, we explore neophobia across biological levels of organisation, first describing types of neophobia among animals and the underlying causes of neophobia, highlighting high levels of risk and uncertainty as key drivers. We place neophobia in the framework of Error Management Theory and Signal Detection Theory, showing how increases in overall risk and uncertainty can lead to costly non-responses towards novel threats unless individuals lower their response threshold and become neophobic. We then discuss how neophobic behaviour translates into population and evolutionary consequences before introducing neophobia-like processes at the cellular level, where some phenomena such as allergy and autoimmunity can parallel neophobic behaviour. Finally, we discuss neophobia attenuation, considering how a sudden change in the environment from dangerous to safe can lead to problematic over-responses (i.e. the 'maladaptive defensive carry-over' hypothesis), and discuss treatment methods for such over-responses. We anticipate that bridging the concept of neophobia with a process-centered perspective can facilitate a transfer of insight across organisational levels.