Predicting the development of in-hospital cardiogenic shock in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention: the ORBI risk score

Dipeptidyl peptidase 3 plasma levels predict cardiogenic shock and mortality in acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dipeptidyl peptidase 3 (DPP3) is a protease involved in the degradation of angiotensin II which disturbs peripheral blood pressure regulation and compromises left ventricular function. This study examined the relationship of circulating DPP3 (cDPP3) with cardiogenic shock (CS) and mortality in patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS).

METHODS

Plasma cDPP3 levels were assessed at baseline and 12-24 h after presentation in patients with ACS prospectively enrolled into the multi-centre SPUM-ACS study (n = 4787).

RESULTS

Circulating DPP3 levels were associated with in-hospital CS when accounting for established risk factors including the ORBI risk score [per log-2 increase, hazard ratio (HR) 1.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.82, P = .021]. High cDPP3 was an independent predictor of mortality at 30 days (HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.36-2.58, P < .001) and at one year (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.28-2.02, P < .001) after adjustment for established risk factors and the GRACE 2.0 score. Compared to values within the normal range, persistently elevated cDPP3 levels at 12-24 h were associated with 13.4-fold increased 30-day mortality risk (HR 13.42, 95% CI 4.86-37.09, P < .001) and 5.8-fold increased 1-year mortality risk (HR 5.79, 95% CI 2.70-12.42, P < .001). Results were consistent across various patient subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies cDPP3 as a novel marker of CS and increased mortality in patients with ACS. Circulating DPP3 offers prognostic information beyond established risk factors and improves early risk assessment.

Reperfusion Delays and Outcomes Among Patients With ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction With and Without Cardiogenic Shock

BACKGROUND

Mortality remains high in patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock (CS), and early reperfusion has been shown to improve outcomes. We analyzed the association between first medical contact (FMC)-to-percutaneous coronary angiography time with mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events among patients with STEMI with and without CS.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority STEMI registry, including all patients with STEMI who received primary percutaneous coronary angiography between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2020, and stratified them by presence or absence of CS at hospital arrival. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, the secondary outcome was in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as a composite of the first occurrence of mortality, cardiac arrest, heart failure, intracerebral hemorrhage, cerebrovascular accident, or reinfarction. Mixed effects logistic regression with restricted cubic splines was used to estimate the relationships between FMC-to-device time and the outcomes in the CS and non-CS groups.

RESULTS

2929 patients were included, 9.4% (n=275) had CS. Median FMC-to-device time was 113.5 (interquartile range, 93.0-145.0) and 103.0 (interquartile range, 85.0-130.0) minutes for patients with CS and without CS, respectively. More patients with CS had FMC-to-device times above guideline recommendations (76.6% versus 54.1%, P<0.001). Between 60 and 90 minutes, for each 10-minute increase in FMC-to-device time, absolute mortality for patients with CS increased by 4% to 7%, whereas for patients without CS, it increased by <0.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with STEMI undergoing primary percutaneous coronary angiography, reperfusion delays among patients with CS are associated with significantly worse outcomes. Strategies to reduce FMC-to-device times for patients with STEMI presenting with CS are required.

Early Recognition and Risk Stratification in Cardiogenic Shock: Well Begun Is Half Done

Cardiogenic shock is a complex syndrome manifesting with distinct phenotypes depending on the severity of the primary cardiac insult and the underlying status. As long as therapeutic interventions fail to divert its unopposed rapid evolution, poor outcomes will continue challenging health care systems. Thus, early recognition in the emergency setting is a priority, in order to avoid delays in appropriate management and to ensure immediate initial stabilization. Since advanced therapeutic strategies and specialized shock centers may provide beneficial support, it seems that directing patients towards the recently described shock network may improve survival rates. A multidisciplinary approach strategy commands the interconnections between the strategic role of the ED in affiliation with cardiac shock centers. This review outlines critical features of early recognition and initial therapeutic management, as well as the utility of diagnostic tools and risk stratification models regarding the facilitation of patient trajectories through the shock network. Further, it proposes the implementation of precise criteria for shock team activation and the establishment of definite exclusion criteria for streaming the right patient to the right place at the right time.

Contemporary Management of Cardiogenic Shock Complicating Acute Myocardial Infarction

Despite an improvement in pharmacological therapies and mechanical reperfusion, the outcome of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is still suboptimal, especially in patients with cardiogenic shock (CS). The incidence of CS accounts for 3-15% of AMI cases, with mortality rates of 40% to 50%. In contrast to a large number of trials conducted in patients with AMI without CS, there is limited evidence-based scientific knowledge in the CS setting. Therefore, recommendations and actual treatments are often based on registry data. Similarly, knowledge of the available options in terms of temporary mechanical circulatory support (MCS) devices is not equally widespread, leading to an underutilisation or even overutilisation in different regions/countries of these treatment options and nonuniformity in the management of CS. The aim of this article is to provide a critical overview of the available literature on the management of CS as a complication of AMI, summarising the most recent evidence on revascularisation strategies, pharmacological treatments and MCS use.

Mortality and Heart Failure Hospitalization Among Young Adults With and Without Cardiogenic Shock After Acute Myocardial Infarction

OBJECTIVES

To investigate risk factors and outcomes of cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI-CS) in young patients with AMI.

BACKGROUND

AMI-CS is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. Data regarding AMI-CS in younger individuals are limited.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutive patients with type 1 AMI aged 18-50 years admitted to 2 large tertiary-care academic centers were included, and they were adjudicated as having cardiogenic shock (CS) by physician review of electronic medical records using the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions CS classification system. Outcomes included all-cause mortality (ACM), cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and 1-year hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). In addition to using the full population, matching was also used to define a comparator group in the non-CS cohort. Among 2097 patients (mean age 44 ± 5.1 years, 74% white, 19% female), AMI-CS was present in 148 (7%). Independent risk factors of AMI-CS included ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, left main disease, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, female sex, peripheral vascular disease, and diabetes. Over median follow-up of 11.2 years, young patients with AMI-CS had a significantly higher risk of ACM (adjusted HR 2.84, 95% CI 1.68-4.81; P < 0.001), CVM (adjusted HR 4.01, 95% CI 2.17-7.71; P < 0.001), and 1-year HHF (adjusted HR 5.99, 95% CI 2.04-17.61; P = 0.001) compared with matched non-AMI-CS patients. Over the course of the study, there was an increase in the incidence of AMI-CS among young patients with MI as well as rising mortality rates for patients with both AMI-CS and non-AMI-CS.

CONCLUSIONS

Of young patients with AMI, 7% developed AMI-CS, which was associated with a significantly elevated risk of mortality and HHF.

Escalating and De-escalating Temporary Mechanical Circulatory Support in Cardiogenic Shock: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

The use of temporary mechanical circulatory support in cardiogenic shock has increased dramatically despite a lack of randomized controlled trials or evidence guiding clinical decision-making. Recommendations from professional societies on temporary mechanical circulatory support escalation and de-escalation are limited. This scientific statement provides pragmatic suggestions on temporary mechanical circulatory support device selection, escalation, and weaning strategies in patients with common cardiogenic shock causes such as acute decompensated heart failure and acute myocardial infarction. The goal of this scientific statement is to serve as a resource for clinicians making temporary mechanical circulatory support management decisions and to propose standardized approaches for their use until more robust randomized clinical data are available.

Early Prediction of Cardiogenic Shock Using Machine Learning

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a severe condition with in-hospital mortality of up to 50%. Patients who develop CS may have previous cardiac history, but that may not always be the case, adding to the challenges in optimally identifying and managing these patients. Patients may present to a medical facility with CS or develop CS while in the emergency department (ED), in a general inpatient ward (WARD) or in the critical care unit (CC). While different clinical pathways for management exist once CS is recognized, there are challenges in identifying the patients in a timely manner, in all settings, in a timeframe that will allow proper management. We therefore developed and evaluated retrospectively a machine learning model based on the XGBoost (XGB) algorithm which runs automatically on patient data from the electronic health record (EHR). The algorithm was trained on 8 years of de-identified data (from 2010 to 2017) collected from a large regional healthcare system. The input variables include demographics, vital signs, laboratory values, some orders, and specific pre-existing diagnoses. The model was designed to make predictions 2 h prior to the need of first CS intervention (inotrope, vasopressor, or mechanical circulatory support). The algorithm achieves an overall area under curve (AUC) of 0.87 (0.81 in CC, 0.84 in ED, 0.97 in WARD), which is considered useful for clinical use. The algorithm can be refined based on specific elements defining patient subpopulations, for example presence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or congestive heart failure (CHF), further increasing its precision when a patient has these conditions. The top-contributing risk factors learned by the model are consistent with existing clinical findings. Our conclusion is that a useful machine learning model can be used to predict the development of CS. This manuscript describes the main steps of the development process and our results.

Impact of shock index before IABP implantation on recent prognosis of patients with cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of shock index before Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump (IABP) implantation on recent prognosis of patients with cardiogenic shock (CS) complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI) underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

A total of 103 patients with CS complicating AMI admitted in our hospital from June 2014 to May 2019 who underwent primary PCI with IABP support were enrolled in the study. We collected the data according to the medical records and collected their clinical manifestation and laboratory examination, as well as 28-day mortality, and also calculated the shock index (ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure) before IABP implantation.

RESULTS

Patients with higher SI at IABP insertion were associated with higher proportion of anterior infarction (81.5% vs. 61.2%, p = 0.022), previous history of PCI (24.1% vs. 8.16%, p = 0.030), culprit leision at left main (31.5% vs. 12.2%, p = 0.019), and final TIMI flow ≤ 2(55.5% vs. 26.5%, p = 0.003), invasive ventilation(40.7% vs. 20.4%, p = 0.026) as well as 28-day-mortality (81.5% vs. 61.2%, p = 0.022). SI at insertion may help predict recent outcome, with a cutoff value of 1.625, a sensitivity of 0.655 and a specificity of 0.708, and areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUCROC) was 0.713. On multiple analysis, SI, together with final TIMI flow, arterial pH and creatinine were independent predictive factors of recent prognosis among this population.

CONCLUSION

Among CS patients complicating AMI undergoing PCI with the support of IABP, higher SI before IABP implantation was associated with poorer prognosis, SI was an independent risk factor of 28-day mortality and may predict the 28-day outcome.

A Comprehensive Appraisal of Risk Prediction Models for Cardiogenic Shock

ABSTRACT

Despite advances in early revascularization, percutaneous hemodynamic support platforms, and systems of care, cardiogenic shock (CS) remains associated with a mortality rate higher than 50%. Several risk stratification models have been derived since the 1990 s to identify patients at high risk of adverse outcomes. Still, limited information is available on the differences between scoring systems and their relative applicability to both acute myocardial infarction and advanced decompensated heart failure CS. Thus, we reviewed the similarities, differences, and limitations of published CS risk prediction models and herein discuss their suitability to the contemporary management of CS care.

A Risk Stratification Scheme for In-Hospital Cardiogenic Shock in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction

Objective

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is the leading cause of death in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) despite advances in care. This study aims to derive and validate a risk score for in-hospital development of CS in patients with AMI.

Methods

In this study, we used the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China–Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC–ACS) registry of 76,807 patients for model development and internal validation. These patients came from 158 tertiary hospitals and 82 secondary hospitals between 2014 and 2019, presenting AMI without CS upon admission. The eligible patients with AMI were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 53,790) and internal validation (n = 23,017) cohorts. Another cohort of 2,205 patients with AMI between 2014 and 2016 was used for external validation. Based on the identified predictors for in-hospital CS, a new point-based CS risk scheme, referred to as the CCC–ACS CS score, was developed and validated.

Results

A total of 866 (1.1%) and 39 (1.8%) patients subsequently developed in-hospital CS in the CCC–ACS project and external validation cohort, respectively. The CCC–ACS CS score consists of seven variables, including age, acute heart failure upon admission, systolic blood pressure upon admission, heart rate, initial serum creatine kinase-MB level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and mechanical complications. The area under the curve for in-hospital development of CS was 0.73, 0.71, and 0.85 in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts, respectively.

Conclusion

This newly developed CCC–ACS CS score can quantify the risk of in-hospital CS for patients with AMI, which may help in clinical decision making.

Clinical Trial Registration

www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT02306616.

Usefulness of severity scales for cardiogenic shock in-hospital mortality. Proposal for a new prognostic model

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a condition comprising multiple etiologies, which associates high mortality rates. Some scoring systems have been shown to be good predictors of hospital mortality in patients admitted to Critical Care Units (CCU). The main objective of this study is to analyze their usefulness and validity in a cohort of CS patients.

METHODS

Observational unicentric study of a cohort of CS patients. SOFA, SAPS II and APACHE II scores were calculated in the first 24 h of CCU admission.

RESULTS

130 patients with CS were included. SOFA, SAPS II and APACHE II scores revealed good discrimination for hospital mortality: (AUC) ROC values (AUC: 0.711, 0.752 and 0.742 respectively; P = .6). Calibration, estimated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, was adequate in all cases. Acute coronary syndrome, lactate serum values, SAPS II score and vasoactive inotropic score (VIS) were found to be independent predictors for mortality, upon ICU admission. With these variables, a specific prognostic indicator was developed (SAPS-2-LIVE), which improved predictive capability for mortality in our series (AUC) ROC, 0.825 (95% CI 0.752-0.89).

CONCLUSION

In this contemporary CS cohort, the aforementioned scores have been shown to have good predictive ability for hospital mortality. These findings could contribute to a more accurate risk stratification in CS.

Early and late ventricular arrhythmias complicating ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Ventricular arrhythmias can be life-threatening complications of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

AIMS

To describe the incidence, predictors and in-hospital impact of early ventricular arrhythmia (EVA, occurring<day 2 after STEMI) and late ventricular arrhythmia (LVA, occurring≥day 2 after STEMI) in patients with STEMI.

METHODS

Data from 13,523 patients enrolled in a prospective registry were analysed. Logistic and Cox regressions were performed to identify predictors of EVA, LVA and in-hospital all-cause mortality. Predictors of LVA were used to build a risk score.

RESULTS

EVA occurred in 678 patients (5%), whereas 120 patients (0.9%) experienced LVA, at a median timing of 3days after STEMI. EVA was associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.44, 95% confidence interval: 1.17-1.76; P=0.001), whereas no association was observed with LVA (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.57-1.28; P=0.45). Multivariable predictors of LVA were: age≥65years; serum creatinine≥85μmol/L on admission; pulse pressure≤45mmHg on admission; presence of a Q wave on admission electrocardiogram; Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction flow grade<3 after percutaneous coronary intervention; and left ventricular ejection fraction≤45%. The score derived from these variables allowed the classification of patients into four risk categories: low (0-21); low-to-intermediate (22-34); intermediate-to-high (35-44); and high (≥45). Observed LVA rates were 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.9% and 2.5%, across the four risk categories, respectively. The model demonstrated good discrimination (20-fold cross-validated c-statistic of 0.76) and adequate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.23).

CONCLUSIONS

EVA is 5-fold more common than LVA in the setting of STEMI, and portends a higher risk of in-hospital all-cause mortality. LVA is mainly associated with the patient's baseline risk profile and surrogate markers of larger infarct size. We developed and internally validated a risk score identifying patients at high risk of LVA for whom early intensive care unit discharge may not be suitable.

Past, present, and future of mortality risk scores in the contemporary cardiac intensive care unit

Risk stratification dates to the dawn of the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU). As the CICU has evolved from a dedicated unit caring for patients with acute myocardial infarction to a complex healthcare environment encompassing a broad array of acute and chronic cardiovascular pathology, an expanding array of risk scores are available that can be applied to CICU patients. Most of these scores were designed for use either in patients with a specific acute cardiovascular diagnosis or unselected critically ill patients, and risk scores developed in other populations often underperform in the CICU. More recently, risk scores have been developed specific to the CICU population, demonstrating improved performance. All existing risk scores have relevant limitations, both in terms of performance and applicability to patient care. Risk scores have been predominantly developed to predict short-term mortality, either by quantifying severity of illness or by incorporating other risk factors for mortality. It is essential to distinguish mortality risk attributable to severity of illness, which may be modifiable through intervention, from mortality risk attributable to non-modifiable risk factors. This review discusses established risk scores applicable to the CICU population, details how risk score performance is characterized, describes how new risk scores can be developed, explains how the information provided by risk scores can be used in clinical practice, and highlights how novel risk stratification approaches can be developed.

The Association of Thyroid Hormones with Cardiogenic Shock and Prognosis in Patients with ST Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) Treated with Primary PCI

BACKGROUND

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is the leading cause of the death in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Thyroid dysfunction is related to prognosis of patients with myocardial infarction. Hence, the aim of this study is to explore the relationship between thyroid hormones (free triiodothyronine [FT3] and free thyroxine [FT4]) and CS.

METHOD

A total of 1270 patients with STEMI treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were consecutively enrolled in our study. Patients were classified into two groups according to with or without CS during hospitalization. Stepwise multivariate logistic analysis was conducted to investigate the association of thyroid hormones and CS. Restricted cubic spline method was employed to further explore relationship between CS and thyroid hormones.

RESULTS

Patients who developed CS (n=103) had lower FT3 and higher FT4 on admission. The stepwise logistic analysis showed both FT3 (P=0.038) and FT4 (P=0.024) were independently related to CS. Restricted cubic splines indicated that lower FT3 (<2.25 pg/ml) or higher FT4 (>1.25 ng/dl) was correlated with higher prevalence of CS. Over 2.5 years' follow-up, patients (n=294) with low FT3 (<2.85 pg/ml) and high FT4 (>=0.88 ng/dl) had the highest all-cause mortality (18.2%), whereas patients (n=293) with high FT3 and low FT4 had the lowest all-cause mortality (3.8%) (P for trend <0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Both FT3 and FT4 are independently associated with in-hospital CS development in patients with STEMI treated with PCI. Patients with lower range of FT3 and upper range of FT4 had the worst outcomes in a long-term follow-up.

Nomogram for the Prediction of Intrahospital Mortality Risk of Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Complicated with Hyperuricemia: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

Purpose

This study aimed to establish an accurate and easy predictive model for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with hyperuricemia, using readily available features to estimate intrahospital mortality risk.

Patients and Methods

This was a multicenter retrospective study involving the development of risk prediction models for intrahospital mortality among all STEMI patients with hyperuricemia from Zunyi Medical University Chest Pain Center’s specialized alliance between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2020. The primary outcome was intrahospital mortality. A total of 48 candidate variables were considered from demographic and clinical data. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to develop a nomogram. Concordance index values, decision curve analysis, the area under the curve (AUC), and clinical impact curves were examined. In this study, 489 patients with STEMI were included in the training dataset and an additional 209 patients from the 44 chest pain centers were included in the test cohort. B-type natriuretic peptides, α-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (α-HBDH), cystatin C, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), shock index, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were associated with intrahospital mortality and included in the nomogram.

Results

The model showed good discrimination power, and the AUC generated to predict survival in the training set was 0.875 (95% confidence interval, 0.825–0.925). In the validation set, the AUC of survival predictions was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.792–0.947). Calibration plots and decision curve analysis showed good model performance in both datasets. A web-based calculator (https://bzxzmu.shinyapps.io/STEMI-with-Hyperuricemia-intrahospital-mortality/) was established based on the nomogram model, which was used to measure the levels of OHCA, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, shock index, α-HBDH, cystatin C, and B-type natriuretic peptides.

Conclusion

For practical applications, this model may prove clinically useful for personalized therapy management in patients with STEMI with hyperuricemia.

Development of a machine learning model to predict the risk of late cardiogenic shock in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Background

The in-hospital mortality of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) increases to more than 50% following a cardiogenic shock (CS) event. This study highlights the need to consider the risk of delayed calculation in developing in-hospital CS risk models. This report compared the performances of multiple machine learning models and established a late-CS risk nomogram for STEMI patients.

Methods

This study used logistic regression (LR) models, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), support vector regression (SVM), and tree-based ensemble machine learning models [light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)] to predict CS risk in STEMI patients. The models were developed based on 1,598 and 684 STEMI patients in the training and test datasets, respectively. The models were compared based on accuracy, the area under the curve (AUC), recall, precision, and Gini score, and the optimal model was used to develop a late CS risk nomogram. Discrimination, calibration, and the clinical usefulness of the predictive model were assessed using C-index, calibration plotd, and decision curve analyses.

Results

A total of 2282 STEMI patients recruited between January 1, 2016 and May 31, 2020, were included in the complete dataset. The linear models built using LASSO and LR showed the highest overall predictive power, with an average accuracy over 0.93 and an AUC above 0.82. With a C-index of 0.811 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.769-0.853], the LASSO nomogram showed good differentiation and proper calibration. In internal validation tests, a high C-index value of 0.821 was achieved. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) examination showed that compared with the previous score-based models, the LASSO model showed superior clinical relevance.

Conclusions

In this study, five machine learning methods were developed for in-hospital CS prediction. The LASSO model showed the best predictive performance. This nomogram could provide an accurate prognostic prediction for CS risk in patients with STEMI.

Culprit lesion location and outcomes in patients with multivessel disease and infarct-related cardiogenic shock: a core laboratory analysis of the CULPRIT-SHOCK trial

BACKGROUND

Critical culprit lesion locations (CCLL) such as left main (LM) and proximal left anterior descending (LAD) are associated with worse clinical outcome in myocardial infarction without cardiogenic shock (CS).

AIMS

We aimed to assess whether CCLL identify a subgroup of patients with poorer prognosis when presenting with CS.

METHODS

In the CULPRIT-SHOCK trial, a core laboratory reviewed all coronary angiograms to identify CCLL. A CCLL was defined as a culprit lesion with a >70% diameter stenosis of the LM, LM equivalent (>70% diameter stenosis of both proximal LAD and proximal circumflex), proximal LAD or last remaining vessel. We evaluated the primary study endpoint of the CULPRIT-SHOCK trial according to CCLL.

RESULTS

A total of 269 (43%) out of 626 patients eligible for this analysis had a CCLL. Death or renal replacement therapy within 30 days, death within 30 days and death within one year were significantly higher in the CCLL than in the non-CCLL group (58.4% vs 43.4%, p<0.001, 55.8% vs 39.5%, p<0.001, 61.0% vs 44.5%, p<0.001, respectively). This was consistent after adjustment for baseline and angiographic characteristics. No interaction with the randomisation group (culprit lesion-only or immediate multivessel PCI) was found.

CONCLUSIONS

CCLL is frequent in CS and independently associated with worse clinical outcomes irrespective of the revascularisation strategy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT01927549.

Epidemiology and causes of cardiogenic shock

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cardiogenic shock is a complex clinical syndrome of end-organ hypoperfusion due to impaired cardiac performance. Although cardiogenic shock has traditionally been viewed as a monolithic disorder predominantly caused by severe left ventricular dysfunction complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI), there is increasing recognition of the diverse causes of cardiogenic shock and wide spectrum of clinical severity. The purpose of this review is to describe the contemporary epidemiology of cardiogenic shock, including trends in clinical outcomes and recent efforts to refine risk assessment.

RECENT FINDINGS

The incidence of cardiogenic shock among patients with AMI has remained remarkably stable at 3-10%; however, the proportion of cardiogenic shock cases related to AMI has decreased over time to ∼30%, while the proportion of cardiogenic shock cases due to acute decompensated heart failure has steadily increased. Estimated in-hospital mortality from cardiogenic shock in contemporary registries is approximately 30-40%, suggesting modest improvement in cardiogenic shock outcomes over the last decade. There is a wide spectrum of clinical severity among patients presenting with cardiogenic shock, which is described by the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions clinical staging criteria.

SUMMARY

Improved clinical characterization and risk assessment of patients with cardiogenic shock may facilitate more effective clinical investigations of this morbid clinical syndrome.

Predicting survival in patients with acute decompensated heart failure complicated by cardiogenic shock

Background

Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) complicated by cardiogenic shock (CS) has unique pathophysiological background requiring specific patient stratification, management and therapeutic targets. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to derive a simple stratification tool to predict survival in patients with ADHF complicated by CS.

Methods and results

Using logistic regression, univariable testing was performed to identify the variables potentially associated with 28-day mortality. We propose a new logistic model (ALC-Shock score) based on three easy parameters (age, serum creatinine and serum lactate at the ICU admission) as a powerful predictor of survival or successful bridge to heart replacement therapy at 28-day follow-up in this specific population. A multivariable analysis (logistic model) was performed to evaluate the association between selected variables and outcome (overall death at 28-day follow up). The score was then validated in a different cohort of 93 ADHF-CS patients and compared to a previous developed score (the Cardshock score).Overall, 28-day mortality was 34%. The ALC-shock score showed better discrimination (Area Under the Curve-AUC- 0.82; 95% CI 0.73-0.91) as compared to the Cardshock score (AUC 0.67; 95% CI 0.55-0.79) (p = 0.009) to predict 28-days overall mortality. In the validation cohort the AUC for the ALC-shock score was 0.66.

Conclusions

A simple score including age, lactates and creatinine on admission could be considered to predict short-term mortality in CS-ADHF patients in order to drive towards a treatment intensification.

Radial artery access is associated with lower mortality in patients undergoing primary PCI: a report from the SWEDEHEART registry

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this observational study was to evaluate the effects of radial artery access versus femoral artery access on the risk of 30-day mortality, inhospital bleeding and cardiogenic shock in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

METHODS

We used data from the SWEDEHEART registry and included all patients who were treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention in Sweden between 2005 and 2016. We compared patients who had percutaneous coronary intervention by radial access versus femoral access with regard to the primary endpoint of all-cause death within 30 days, using a multilevel propensity score adjusted logistic regression which included hospital as a random effect.

RESULTS

During the study period, 44,804 patients underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention of whom 24,299 (54.2%) had radial access and 20,505 (45.8%) femoral access. There were 2487 (5.5%) deaths within 30 days, of which 920 (3.8%) occurred in the radial access and 1567 (7.6%) in the femoral access group. After propensity score adjustment, radial access was associated with a lower risk of death (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55-0.88, P = 0.025). We found no interaction between access site and age, gender and cardiogenic shock regarding 30-day mortality. Radial access was also associated with a lower adjusted risk of bleeding (adjusted OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.25-0.79, P = 0.006) and cardiogenic shock (adjusted OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.24-0.73, P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction, primary percutaneous coronary intervention by radial access rather than femoral access was associated with an adjusted lower risk of death, bleeding and cardiogenic shock. Our findings are consistent with, and add external validity to, recent randomised trials.

Cardioprotective shock management: monitoring and supportive therapies

Cardiogenic shock is a highly lethal syndrome, leading to rapid death or secondary multiorgan damage, but current shock therapies, including mechanical support devices, also have a significant side effect profile. The overarching goal of shock therapy is ensuring long-term survival with good quality of life. This implies averting death, modifying the disease course by promoting heart recovery and avoiding additional cardiac damage, protecting other organs, and circumventing complications. Monitoring and supportive therapies are subordinate to these goals. Rather than merely following preconceived notions, the rapid evolution in mechanical support technology requires iterative and critical review of the benefits of current procedures, protocols and drugs in view of their overall contribution to the therapeutic goals. This article discusses various monitoring and supportive pharmaceutical modalities typically used in patients with cardiogenic shock requiring mechanical support.

Management of ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in High-Risk Settings

Despite the widespread adoption of primary percutaneous intervention and modern antithrombotic therapy, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remains the leading cause of death in the United States and remains one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Certain high-risk patients present a challenge for diagnosis and treatment. The widespread adoption of primary percutaneous intervention in addition to modern antithrombotic therapy has resulted in substantial improvement in the short- and long-term prognosis following STEMI. In this review, we aim to provide a brief analysis of the state-of-the-art treatment for patients presenting with STEMI, focusing on cardiogenic shock, current treatment and controversies, cardiac arrest, and diagnosis and treatment of mechanical complications, as well as multivessel and left main-related STEMI.

Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) Measured at Admission is Associated With Development of Late Cardiogenic Shock and Mortality in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

ABSTRACT

In patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) the immune system is activated with an inflammatory response to follow. In STEMI patients with a severe inflammatory response, risk of development of cardiogenic shock (CS) seems increased. Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) is a glycoprotein released from mature neutrophils and plasma concentration may increase immediately after STEMI. We therefore aimed to assess whether admission NGAL plasma concentration in patients with STEMI was associated with CS development after leaving the catheterization laboratory (late CS) and 30-day all-cause mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From 1,892 consecutive patients with STEMI 1,626 (86%) had plasma NGAL concentration measured upon hospital admission before angiography throughout a 1-year period at two tertiary heart centers in Denmark. Patients were stratified according to NGAL quartiles (Q1-4). To assess late CS development, we adjusted for the Observatoire Régional Breton sur l'Infarctus risk score for late CS. For mortality assessment, we adjusted for gender, age, post-PCI culprit Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction flow, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), kidney dysfunction, and being comatose after cardiac arrest.

RESULTS

Increasing NGAL concentration was associated with higher age, more comorbidities, and more critical patient conditions including lower blood pressure and LVEF. When adjusted for factors associated with poor outcome, NGAL remained independently associated with both late CS development (Q4 vs. Q1-3) (OR (95% CI) 3.64 (1.79-7.41) and 30-day mortality (HR (95% CI) 3.18 (1.73-5.84)).

CONCLUSION

Admission plasma concentration of NGAL in STEMI patients is independently associated with 30-day all-cause mortality and predictive of late CS development.

Modern approaches to the diagnosis and treatment of cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is the most severe complication of myocardial infarction, manifested by an acute tissue hypoperfusion as a result of impaired contractile function of the heart. CS occupies a leading place in the patterns of mortality in patients with myocardial infarction, despite all the advances in medicine. This review presents a modern classification of CS and a risk assessment score, considers the main aspects of epidemiology and pathophysiology of CS, discusses issues of its diagnosis and treatment.

Clinical factors associated with slow flow in left main coronary artery-acute coronary syndrome without cardiogenic shock

Since slow flow can be a fatal complication in left main coronary artery (LMCA)-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients, it should be important to anticipate and prepare slow flow during primary PCI for LMCA-ACS. We hypothesized that intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) findings would be useful to predict slow flow for LMCA-ACS patients without cardiogenic shock (CS). The purpose of this study was to investigate clinical factors associated with slow flow in LMCA-ACS patients without CS. We included 60 LMCA-ACS patients without CS, and divided into the slow flow group (n = 18) and the non-slow flow group (n = 42). Slow flow was defined as either transient or persistent TIMI flow grade ≤ 2. The prevalence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was significantly higher in the slow flow group (55.6%) than in the non-slow flow group (11.9%) (p = 0.002). In the IVUS analysis, remodeling index was significantly greater in the slow flow group (1.15 ± 0.17) than in the non-slow flow group (0.99 ± 0.11) (p = 0.001). The multivariate logistic regression analyses in the IVUS factors revealed that remodeling index was significantly associated with slow flow (0.1 increase: OR 2.238, 95% CI 1.144-4.379, p = 0.019). In conclusion, remodeling index was significantly associated with slow flow. Our results suggest that the remodeling index determined by IVUS would be useful to find high-risk features of slow flow in LMCA-ACS patients without CS.

Prospective validation of the SCAI shock classification: Single center analysis

BACKGROUND

The Society for Cardiac Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) Shock Classification has been retrospectively validated by several groups. We sought to prospectively study outcomes of consecutive patients with reference to initial SCAI Shock Stage and therapeutic strategy as well as 24 hr SCAI Shock Stage reassessment.

METHODS

Kaplan Meier method was used to describe survival and Cox Proportional hazards modeling used to assess predictors of survival.

RESULTS

Over an 18-month period, 166 patients were referred for evaluation. Demographics, hemodynamics, and most laboratory findings were similar between SCAI stages, which were assigned by the team. Initial SCAI Stage was a strong predictor of survival. Thirty-day survival was 100, 65.4, 44.2, and 60% for patients with initial SCAI shock stage B, C, D, and E respectively (p = .0004). Age and initial SCAI Shock Stage were shown to be the strongest predictors of survival by Cox proportional hazards. Mode of mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or lack of such was not a predictor of outcome. Shock stage at 24 hr was also examined. Thirty-day survival was 100, 96.7, 66.9, 21.6, and 6.2% for patients with 3-4 SCAI stage improvement, 2 stage improvement, 1 stage improvement, no change in SCAI stage and worsening of SCAI stage respectively (p < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Initial SCAI Shock stage predicts the survival of unselected patients with a variety of MCS interventions and medical therapy alone. The 24-hr reassessment of shock stage further refines the prognosis.

Biomarkers predictive of late cardiogenic shock development in patients with suspected ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Background:

Cardiogenic shock complicating ST-elevation myocardial infarction is characterised by progressive left ventricular dysfunction causing inflammation and neurohormonal activation. Often, cardiogenic shock develops after hospital admission. Whether inflammation and a neurohormonal activation precede development of clinical cardiogenic shock is unknown.

Methods and results:

In 93% of 2247 consecutive patients with suspected ST-elevation myocardial infarction admitted at two tertiary heart centres, admission plasma levels of pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, copeptin, mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin and stimulation-2 were measured on hospital admission. Patients were stratified according to no cardiogenic shock development and cardiogenic shock developed before (early cardiogenic shock) or after (late cardiogenic shock) leaving the catheterization laboratory. In total, 225 (10%) patients developed cardiogenic shock, amongst these patients late cardiogenic shock occurred in 64 (2.9%). All four biomarkers were independently associated with the development of late cardiogenic shock (odds ratio per two-fold increase in risk: 1.19–3.13) even when adjusted for the recently developed Observatoire Régional Breton sur l’Infarctus risk score for prediction of late cardiogenic shock development. Furthermore, pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, copeptin and mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin, but not stimulation-2, added significant predictive information, when added to the Observatoire Régional Breton sur l’Infarctus risk score (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, pro-atrial natriuretic peptide: 0.87, p=0.0008; copeptin: 0.86, p&lt;0.05; mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin: 0.88, p=0.006).

Conclusions:

Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, copeptin, mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin and stimulation-2 admission plasma concentration were associated with late cardiogenic shock development in patients admitted with suspected ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin and copeptin had independent predictive value for late cardiogenic shock development.

Early Clinical Outcomes of Surgical Myocardial Revascularization for Acute Coronary Syndromes Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock: A Report From the North-Rhine-Westphalia Surgical Myocardial Infarction Registry

Background

Coronary artery bypass grafting for acute coronary syndrome complicated by cardiogenic shock (CS) is associated with a high mortality. This registry study aimed to distinguish between early surgical outcomes of CS patients with non–ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

Methods and Results

Patients with NSTEMI (n=1218) or STEMI (n=618) referred for coronary artery bypass grafting were enrolled in a prospective multicenter registry between 2010 and 2017. CS was present in 227 NSTEMI (18.6%) and 243 STEMI patients (39.3%). Key clinical end points were in‐hospital mortality (IHM) and major adverse cardiocerebral events (MACCEs). Predictors for IHM and MACCEs were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis. STEMI patients with CS were younger, had a lower prevalence of diabetes mellitus and multivessel disease, and exhibited higher myocardial injury (troponin 9±17 versus 3±6 ng/mL) before surgery compared with patients with NSTEMI (P<0.05). Emergency coronary artery bypass grafting was performed more often in STEMI (58%) versus NSTEMI (40%; P=0.002). On‐pump surgery with cardioplegia was the preferred surgical technique in CS. IHM and MACCE rates were 24% and 49% in STEMI patients with CS and were higher compared with NSTEMI (IHM 15% versus MACCE 34%; P<0.001). Predictors for IHM and MACCE in CS were a reduced ejection fraction and a higher European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation score.

Conclusions

Surgical revascularization in NSTEMI and STEMI patients with CS is associated with a substantial but not prohibitive IHM and MACCE rate. Worse early outcomes were found for patients with STEMI complicated by CS compared with NSTEMI patients.

The Relationship Between the Level of Serum ESM-1 and Lp-PLA2 in Patients With Acute ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Acute ST‐segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is the most lethal coronary heart disease with vascular endothelium dysfunction and inflammation in the disease development process. Endothelial cell‐specific molecule 1 (ESM‐1) and lipoprotein‐associated phospholipase A2 (Lp‐PLA2) are important for the diagnosis and characterization of STEMI. To date, no studies have reported the correlation between ESM‐1 and Lp‐PLA2 levels in patients with STEMI, which may be an important predictor of the fatal disease. To measure the level of serum ESM‐1 and Lp‐PLA2, and to evaluate the relationship and the clinical significance of these two biomarkers in patients with acute STEMI, 37 inpatients with acute STEMI were sequentially enrolled in the research group and 24 study objects with normal coronary artery function were included in the control group. The measurement of the relative parameters was done by enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay using blood samples taken from the median cubital vein while the inpatients were enrolled. The levels of serum SEM‐1 and Lp‐PLA2 were significantly higher in patients with acute STEMI than in study objects with normal coronary artery function (P < 0.05). A significant correlation of serum SEM‐1 and Lp‐PLA2 was observed, leading to close linearity (r² = 0.8131, P < 0.0001). In conclusion, the endothelium dysfunction factor ESM‐1 and inflammatory factor Lp‐PLA2 are significantly higher and correlated in patients with acute STEMI. These two factors could be novel and effective biomarkers for acute STEMI diagnosis and evaluation.

Mortality in cardiogenic shock is stronger associated to clinical factors than contemporary biomarkers reflecting neurohormonal stress and inflammatory activation

PURPOSE

To validate the IABP-SHOCK II risk score in a Danish cohort and assess the association between the IABP-SHOCK II risk score and admission concentration of biomarkers reflecting neurohormonal - (Copeptin, Pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (proANP), Mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MRproADM)) and inflammatory (ST2) activation in patients with CS complicating ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

A total of 137 consecutive patients admitted with STEMI and CS at two tertiary heart centres were stratified according to the IABP-SHOCK II risk score (0-2; 3/4; 5-9), and had blood sampled upon admission.

RESULTS

Plasma concentrations of Copeptin (median (pmol/L) score 0-2: 313; score 3/4: 682; score 5-9: 632 p < 0.0001), proANP (pmol/L) (1459; 2225; 2876 p = 0.0009) and MRproADM (nmol/L) (0.86; 1.2; 1.4 p = 0.04) were significantly associated with the risk score, whereas ST2 (ng/mL) was not (44; 60; 45 p = 0.23). The IABP-SHOCK II risk score predicted 30-day mortality (score 0-2: 22%; score 4/3: 51%; score 5-9: 72%, area under the curve (AUC): 0.73, plogrank < 0.0001), while the tested biomarkers did not (AUC: 0.51<plogrank < 0.57).

CONCLUSION

Plasma concentrations of Copeptin, MRproADM and proANP were associated with the IABP-SHOCK II risk score in STEMI patients admitted with CS. The risk score predicted 30-day mortality, with no improvement in prediction when concentrations of the assessed biomarkers were added.

STEMI, Cardiogenic Shock, and Mortality in Patients Admitted for Acute Angiography: Associations and Predictions from Plasma Proteome Data

AIM

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity, and cardiogenic shock (CS) a major cause of hospital mortality after AMI. Especially for ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients, fast intervention is essential.Few proteins have proven clinically applicable for AMI. Most proposed biomarkers are based on a priori hypothesis-driven studies of single proteins, not enabling identification of novel candidates. For clinical use, the ability to predict AMI is important; however, studies of proteins in prediction models are surprisingly scarce.Consequently, we applied proteome data for identifying proteins associated with definitive STEMI, CS, and all-cause mortality after admission, and examined the ability of the proteins to predict these outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Proteome-wide data of 497 patients with suspected STEMI were investigated; 381 patients were diagnosed with STEMI, 35 with CS, and 51 died during the first year. Data analysis was conducted by logistic and Cox regression modeling for association analysis, and by multivariable LASSO regression models for prediction modeling.Association studies identified 4 and 29 proteins associated with definitive STEMI or mortality, respectively. Prediction models for CS and mortality (holding two and five proteins, respectively) improved the prediction ability as compared with protein-free prediction models; AUC of 0.92 and 0.89, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The association analyses propose individual proteins as putative protein biomarkers for definitive STEMI and survival after suspected STEMI, while the prediction models put forward sets of proteins with putative predicting ability of CS and survival. These proteins may be verified as biomarkers of potential clinical relevance.

Left main coronary artery disease: when and how to perform PCI?

Left main coronary artery (LMCA) disease has been reported in up to 10% of all patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and in the majority of cases are associated with severe three-vessel CAD. Among patients with chronic coronary syndrome revascularization of significant LMCA disease improves prognosis, while there is a debate about which revascularization strategy, CABG surgery or percutaneous coronary interventions to use. We do a review of the available evidence about the impact of LMCA lesions on patient prognosis according to CAD extension and clinical presentation, the outcome after percutaneous or surgical revascularization, the procedural challenges of LMCA PCI and the available armamentarium to optimally treat this relevant population.

Pharmacoinvasive Strategy Versus Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction in Patients ≥70 Years of Age

The benefit-risk ratio of a pharmacoinvasive strategy (PI) in patients ≥70 years of age with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remains uncertain resulting in its limited use in this population. This study compared efficacy and safety of PI with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). Data from 2,841 patients (mean age: 78.1 ± 5.6 years, female: 36.1%) included in a prospective multicenter registry, and who underwent either PI (n = 269) or pPCI (n = 2,572), were analyzed. The primary end point was in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as the composite of all-cause mortality, nonfatal MI, stroke, and definite stent thrombosis. Secondary end points included all-cause death, major bleeding, net adverse clinical events, and the development of in-hospital Killip class III or IV heart failure. Propensity-score matching and conditional logistic regression were used to adjust for confounders. Within the matched cohort, rates of MACE was not statistically different between the PI (n = 247) and pPCI (n = 958) groups, (11.3% vs 9.0%, respectively, odds ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.94; p = 0.31). Secondary end points were comparable between groups at the exception of a lower rate of development of Killip class III or IV heart failure after PI. The rate of intracranial hemorrhage was significantly higher in the PI group (2.3% vs 0.0%, p = 0.03). In conclusion, the present study demonstrated no difference regarding in-hospital MACE following PI or pPCI in STEMI patients ≥70 years of age. An adequately-powered randomized trial is needed to precisely define the role of PI in this high-risk subgroup.

Using the RISK-PCI Score in the Long-Term Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events and Mortality after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background/Aim

The RISK-PCI is a simple score for the prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and mortality in patients treated with primary PCI (pPCI). The aim of the present study is to evaluate the prognostic performance of the RISK-PCI score in predicting MACE and mortality in the long-term follow-up of STEMI patients treated with pPCI.

Method

The present study enrolled 2,096 STEMI patients treated with pPCI included in the RISK-PCI trial. Patients presenting with cardiogenic shock were excluded. The composite end-point MACE comprising cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal reinfarction and stroke. Patients were followed up at 6 years after enrollment.

Results

One-year and 6-year MACE occurred in 229 (10.9%) and 285 (13.6%) patients, respectively; and 1-year and 6-year mortality occurred in 128 (6.2%) and 151 (7.2%) patients, respectively. The RISK-PCI score was an independent predictor for 1-year MACE (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1, 18–1.31, p < 0.001), 6-year MACE (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16–1.28, p < 0.001), 1-year mortality (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13–1.29, p < 0.001), and 6-year mortality (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15–1.31, p < 0.001). The discrimination of the RISK-PCI score to predict 1-year and 6-year MACE and mortality was good: for 1-year MACE c-statistic 0.78, for 6-year MACE c-statistic 0.75, for 1-year mortality c-statistic 0.87, and for 6-year mortality c-statistic 0.83. The nonsignificant Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit estimates for 1-year MACE (p=0.619), 6-year MACE (p=0.319), 1-year mortality (p=0.258), and 6-year mortality (p=0.540) indicated a good calibration of the model.

Conclusion

The RISK-PCI score demonstrates good characteristics in the assessment of the risk for the occurrence of MACE and mortality during long-term follow-up after pPCI.

Sex differences in crude mortality rates and predictive value of intensive care unit-based scores when applied to the cardiac intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Limited data exists regarding sex differences in outcome and predictive accuracy of intensive care unit-based scoring systems when applied to cardiac intensive care unit patients.

METHODS

We reviewed medical records of patients admitted to cardiac intensive care unit from 1 January 2011-31 December 2016. Sex differences in mortality rates and the performance of intensive care unit-based scoring systems in predicting in-hospital mortality were analyzed. Calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing curves. Discrimination was assessed using the c statistic and receiver-operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Among 6963 patients, 2713 (39%) were women. Overall in-hospital and cardiac intensive care unit mortality rates were similar in women and men (9.1% vs 9.4%, p=0.67 and 5.9% vs 6%, p=0.88, respectively) and in age and major diagnosis subgroups. Of the scoring systems, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment had poor calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p value <0.001), while Simplified Acute Physiology Score II performed better (Hosmer-Lemeshow p value 0.09), in both women and men. All scores had good discrimination (C statistics >0.8). In the subgroups of acute myocardial infarction and heart failure patients, all scores had good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p>0.001) and discrimination (C statistic >0.8) while in diagnosis subgroups with highest mortality, the calibration varied among scores and by sex, and discrimination was poor.

CONCLUSIONS

No sex differences in mortality were seen in cardiac intensive care unit patients. The mortality predictive value of intensive care unit-based scores is limited in both sexes and variable among different subgroups of diagnoses.