Predicting daily COVID-19 case rates from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations across a diversity of wastewater catchments

Utilizing Internet Search Trends and Wastewater Surveillance to Identify Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Communities

This study proposes a novel approach for viral infectious disease surveillance using Google Trends data to model wastewater virus concentrations, providing a rapid, low-cost method for indicating outbreaks. Google Trends search terms were found to correlate strongly with wastewater viral concentrations and clinical cases for influenza A and respiratory syncytial virus (R2 = 0.76 and 0.66). For norovirus and mpox, for which clinical data were limited, Google Trends showed significant correlations with wastewater concentrations. Three modeling approaches were developed: simple linear, stepwise selection, and principal component analysis. These models demonstrated strong predictive power for both norovirus (R2 of up to 0.66) and mpox (R2 of up to 0.60) wastewater concentrations. The approach was validated using a case study of a documented 2021 norovirus outbreak in Hartford, CT, where Google Trends indicators rose in tandem with wastewater concentrations, potentially providing earlier outbreak detection than clinical case data. This method offers a complementary data stream to wastewater surveillance for public health decision-making, particularly valuable in areas lacking a robust clinical testing infrastructure. Limitations include potential confounding factors, such as media coverage and the need to consider local idioms in international applications.

Real-Time On-Site Monitoring of Viruses in Wastewater Using Nanotrap® Particles and RICCA Technologies

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an effective and efficient tool for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks in a community. However, currently available methods are laborious, costly, and time-consuming due to the low concentration of viruses and the presence of matrix chemicals in wastewater that may interfere with molecular analyses. In the present study, we designed a highly sensitive "Quick Poop (wastewater with fecal waste) Sensor" (termed, QPsor) using a joint approach of Nanotrap microbiome particles and RICCA (RNA Isothermal Co-Assisted and Coupled Amplification). Using QPsor, the WBE study showed a strong correlation with standard PEG concentrations and the qPCR technique. Using a closed format for a paper-based lateral flow assay, we were able to demonstrate the potential of our assay as a real-time, point-of-care test by detecting the heat-inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater at concentrations of 100 copies/mL and within one hour. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, we analyzed the presence of viral RNA of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and PMMoV in raw wastewater samples from wastewater treatment plants on-site and within 60 min. The results show that the QPsor method can be an effective tool for disease outbreak detection by combining an AI-enabled case detection model with real-time on-site viral RNA extraction and amplification, especially in the absence of intensive clinical laboratory facilities. The lab-free, lab-quality test capabilities of QPsor for viral prevalence and transmission in the community can contribute to the efficient management of pandemic situations.

Inferring hospital admissions from SARS-CoV-2 virus loads in wastewater in The Netherlands, August 2020 - February 2022

Wastewater-based surveillance enables tracking of SARS-CoV-2 circulation at a local scale in near-real time. Here we investigate the relation between virus loads and the number of hospital admissions in the Netherlands. Inferred virus loads from August 2020 until February 2022 in each of the 344 Dutch municipalities are analysed in a Bayesian multilevel Poisson regression to relate virus loads to daily age-stratified (in groups of 20 years) hospital admissions. Covariates include municipal vaccination coverages stratified by age and dose (first, second, and booster) and prevalence of the circulating coronavirus variants (wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron (BA.1 and BA.2)). Our model captures the relation between hospital admissions and virus loads well. Estimated hospitalisation rates per 1,000,000 persons per day at a virus load of 1013 particles range from 0.18 (95 % Prediction Interval (PI): 0.046-0.48) in children (0-19 years) to 20.1 (95 % PI: 9.46-36.8) in the oldest age group (80 years and older) in an unvaccinated population with only wildtype SARS-CoV-2 circulation. The analyses indicate a nearly twofold (1.92 (95 % PI: 1.78-2.05)) decrease in the expected number of hospitalisations at a given virus load between the Alpha and the Omicron variant. Our analyses show that virus load estimates in wastewater are closely related to the expected number of hospitalisations and provide an attractive tool to detect increased SARS-CoV-2 circulation at a local scale, even when there are few hospital admissions. Our analyses enable integration of data at the municipality level into meaningful conversion rates to translate virus loads at a local level into expected numbers of hospital admissions, which would allow for a better interpretation of virus loads detected in wastewater.

COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths predicted by SARS-CoV-2 levels in Boise, Idaho wastewater

The viral load of COVID-19 in untreated wastewater from Idaho's capital city Boise, ID (Ada County) has been used to predict changes in hospital admissions (statewide in Idaho) and deaths (Ada County) using distributed fixed lag modeling and artificial neural networks (ANN). The wastewater viral counts were used to determine the lag time between peaks in wastewater viral counts and COVID-19 hospitalizations as well as deaths (14 and 23 days, respectively). Quantitative measurement of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts in the untreated wastewater was determined three times a week using RT-qPCR over a span of 13 months. To mitigate the effects of PCR inhibitors in wastewater, a series of dilution tests were conducted, and the 1/4 dilution was used to generate the most successful model. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts and hospitalization from June 7, 2021 to December 29, 2021 were used as training data to predict hospitalizations; and wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts and deaths from June 7, 2021 to December 20, 2021 were used as training data to predict deaths. These training data were used to make predictive ANN models for future hospitalizations and deaths. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of prediction of deaths from COVID-19 based on wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts using machine learning-based multilayered ANN. The applied modeling demonstrates that wastewater surveillance data can be combined with hospitalizations and death data to generate machine learning-based ANN models that predict future COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths, providing an early warning for medical response teams and healthcare policymakers.

Expanding a Wastewater-Based Surveillance Methodology for DNA Isolation from a Workflow Optimized for SARS-CoV-2 RNA Quantification

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) is a noninvasive, epidemiological strategy for assessing the spread of COVID-19 in communities. This strategy was based upon wastewater RNA measurements of the viral target, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The utility of WBS for assessing the spread of COVID-19 has motivated research to measure targets beyond SARS-CoV-2, including pathogens containing DNA. The objective of this study was to establish the necessary steps for isolating DNA from wastewater by modifying a long-standing RNA-specific extraction workflow optimized for SARS-CoV-2 detection. Modifications were made to the sample concentration process and included an evaluation of bead bashing prior to the extraction of either DNA or RNA. Results showed that bead bashing reduced detection of RNA from wastewater but improved recovery of DNA as assessed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Bead bashing is therefore not recommended for the quantification of RNA viruses using qPCR. Whereas for Mycobacterium bacterial DNA isolation, bead bashing was necessary for improving qPCR quantification. Overall, we recommend 2 separate workflows, one for RNA viruses that does not include bead bashing and one for other microbes that use bead bashing for DNA isolation. The experimentation done here shows that current-standing WBS program methodologies optimized for SARS-CoV-2 need to be modified and reoptimized to allow for alternative pathogens to be readily detected and monitored, expanding its utility as a tool for public health assessment.

Correlative analysis of wastewater trends with clinical cases and hospitalizations through five dominant variant waves of COVID-19

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been utilized to track community infections of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) by detecting RNA of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), within samples collected from wastewater. The correlations between community infections and wastewater measurements of the RNA can potentially change as SARS-CoV-2 evolves into new variations by mutating. This study analyzed SARS-CoV-2 RNA, and indicators of human waste in wastewater from two sewersheds of different scales (University of Miami (UM) campus and Miami-Dade County Central District wastewater treatment plant (CDWWTP)) during five internally defined COVID-19 variant dominant periods (Initial, Pre-Delta, Delta, Omicron and Post-Omicron wave). SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantities were compared against COVID-19 clinical cases and hospitalizations to evaluate correlations with wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Although correlations between documented clinical cases and hospitalizations were high, prevalence for a given wastewater SARS-CoV-2 level varied depending upon the variant analyzed. The correlative relationship was significantly steeper (more cases per level found in wastewater) for the Omicron-dominated period. For hospitalization, the relationships were steepest for the Initial wave, followed by the Delta wave with flatter slopes during all other waves. Overall results were interpreted in the context of SARS-CoV-2 virulence and vaccination rates among the community.

An exploration of the relationship between wastewater viral signals and COVID-19 hospitalizations in Ottawa, Canada

Monitoring of viral signal in wastewater is considered a useful tool for monitoring the burden of COVID-19, especially during times of limited availability in testing. Studies have shown that COVID-19 hospitalizations are highly correlated with wastewater viral signals and the increases in wastewater viral signals can provide an early warning for increasing hospital admissions. The association is likely nonlinear and time-varying. This project employs a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) (Gasparrini et al., 2010) to study the nonlinear exposure-response delayed association of the COVID-19 hospitalizations and SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral signals using relevant data from Ottawa, Canada. We consider up to a 15-day time lag from the average of SARS-CoV N1 and N2 gene concentrations to COVID-19 hospitalizations. The expected reduction in hospitalization is adjusted for vaccination efforts. A correlation analysis of the data verifies that COVID-19 hospitalizations are highly correlated with wastewater viral signals with a time-varying relationship. Our DLNM based analysis yields a reasonable estimate of COVID-19 hospitalizations and enhances our understanding of the association of COVID-19 hospitalizations with wastewater viral signals.

Degradation rates influence the ability of composite samples to represent 24-hourly means of SARS-CoV-2 and other microbiological target measures in wastewater

The utility of using severe-acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA for assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 within communities begins with the design of the sample collection program. The objective of this study was to assess the utility of 24-hour composites as representative samples for measuring multiple microbiological targets in wastewater, and whether normalization of SARS-CoV-2 by endogenous targets can be used to decrease hour to hour variability at different watershed scales. Two sets of experiments were conducted, in tandem with the same wastewater, with samples collected at the building, cluster, and community sewershed scales. The first set of experiments focused on evaluating degradation of microbiological targets: SARS-CoV-2, Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) - a surrogate spiked into the wastewater, plus human waste indicators of Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV), Beta-2 microglobulin (B2M), and fecal coliform bacteria (FC). The second focused on the variability of these targets from samples, collected each hour on the hour. Results show that SARS-CoV-2, PMMoV, and B2M were relatively stable, with minimal degradation over 24-h. SIV, which was spiked-in prior to analysis, degraded significantly and FC increased significantly over the course of 24 h, emphasizing the possibility for decay and growth within wastewater. Hour-to-hour variability of the source wastewater was large between each hour of sampling relative to the variability of the SARS-CoV-2 levels calculated between sewershed scales; thus, differences in SARS-CoV-2 hourly variability were not statistically significant between sewershed scales. Results further provided that the quantified representativeness of 24-h composite samples (i.e., statistical equivalency compared against hourly collected grabs) was dependent upon the molecular target measured. Overall, improvements made by normalization were minimal within this study. Degradation and multiplication for other targets should be evaluated when deciding upon whether to collect composite or grab samples in future studies.

Wastewater-based prediction of COVID-19 cases using a highly sensitive SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection method combined with mathematical modeling

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has the potential to predict COVID-19 cases; however, reliable methods for tracking SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations (CRNA) in wastewater are lacking. In the present study, we developed a highly sensitive method (EPISENS-M) employing adsorption-extraction, followed by one-step RT-Preamp and qPCR. The EPISENS-M allowed SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection from wastewater at 50 % detection rate when newly reported COVID-19 cases exceed 0.69/100,000 inhabitants in a sewer catchment. Using the EPISENS-M, a longitudinal WBE study was conducted between 28 May 2020 and 16 June 2022 in Sapporo City, Japan, revealing a strong correlation (Pearson's r = 0.94) between CRNA and the newly COVID-19 cases reported by intensive clinical surveillance. Based on this dataset, a mathematical model was developed based on viral shedding dynamics to estimate the newly reported cases using CRNA data and recent clinical data prior to sampling day. This developed model succeeded in predicting the cumulative number of newly reported cases after 5 days of sampling day within a factor of √2 and 2 with a precision of 36 % (16/44) and 64 % (28/44), respectively. By applying this model framework, another estimation mode was developed without the recent clinical data, which successfully predicted the number of COVID-19 cases for the succeeding 5 days within a factor of √2 and 2 with a precision of 39 % (17/44) and 66 % (29/44), respectively. These results demonstrated that the EPISENS-M method combined with the mathematical model can be a powerful tool for predicting COVID-19 cases, especially in the absence of intensive clinical surveillance.

Detecting SARS-CoV-2 in sludge samples: A systematic review

AIMS

This paper aims to review the main sludge concentration methods used for SARS-CoV-2 detection in sewage sludge samples, discussing the main methods and sample volume related to increased viral load. In addition, we aim to evaluate the countries associated with increased positivity rates for SARS-CoV-2 in sludge samples.

METHODS

This systematic methodology was registered in PROSPERO and followed the PRISMA guidelines. The search was carried out in the SciELO, PubMed/MEDLINE, Lilacs, and Google Scholar databases in January-March 2022. Quantitative studies with conclusive results were included in this review. Concentration methods (polyethylene glycol (PEG), PEG + NaCl, gravity thickening, skimmed milk flocculation, ultrafiltration, filtration using charged filters, primary sedimentation, and anaerobic digestion), as well as detection methods (RTqPCR and reverse transcription droplet digital PCR assay) were evaluated in this review. The SPSS v23 software program was used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

PEG (with or without NaCl addition) and gravity thickening were the most used sludge concentration methods to detect SARS-CoV-2. The main method associated with increased viral load (>2,02 × 10^4 copies/mL) was PEG + NaCl (p < 0.05, Mann-Whitney test). The average positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 in sludge samples was 61 %, and a correlation was found between the sludge volume and the viral load (ro 0.559, p = 0.03, Spearman correlation).

CONCLUSION

The sludge volume may influence the SARS-CoV-2 load since the virus can adhere to solid particles in these samples. Other factors may be associated with SARS-CoV-2 load, including the methods used; especially PEG + NaCl may result in a high viral load detected in sludge, and may provide a suitable pH for SARS-CoV-2 recovery.

Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for COVID-19: Handling qPCR Nondetects and Comparing Spatially Granular Wastewater and Clinical Data Trends

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a useful complement to clinical testing for managing COVID-19. While community-scale wastewater and clinical data frequently correlate, less is known about subcommunity relationships between the two data types. Moreover, nondetects in qPCR wastewater data are typically handled through methods known to bias results, overlooking perhaps better alternatives. We address these knowledge gaps using data collected from September 2020-June 2021 in Davis, California (USA). We hypothesize that coupling the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method could improve estimation of "missing" values in wastewater qPCR data. We test this hypothesis by applying EM-MCMC to city wastewater treatment plant data and comparing output to more conventional nondetect handling methods. Dissimilarities in results (i) underscore the importance of specifying nondetect handling method in reporting and (ii) suggest that using EM-MCMC may yield better agreement between community-scale clinical and wastewater data. We also present a novel framework for spatially aligning clinical data with wastewater data collected upstream of a treatment plant (i.e., distributed across a sewershed). Applying the framework to data from Davis reveals reasonable agreement between wastewater and clinical data at highly granular spatial scales-further underscoring the public-health value of WBE.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA Wastewater Settled Solids Surveillance Frequency and Impact on Predicted COVID-19 Incidence Using a Distributed Lag Model

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentrations in wastewater settled solids correlate well with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence rates (IRs). Here, we develop distributed lag models to estimate IRs using concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from wastewater solids and investigate the impact of sampling frequency on model performance. SARS-CoV-2 N gene and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA concentrations were measured daily at four wastewater treatment plants in California. Artificially reduced data sets were produced for each plant with sampling frequencies of once every 2, 3, 4, and 7 days. Sewershed-specific models that related daily N/PMMoV to IR were fit for each sampling frequency with data from mid-November 2020 through mid-July 2021, which included the period of time during which Delta emerged. Models were used to predict IRs during a subsequent out-of-sample time period. When sampling occurred at least once every 4 days, the in- and out-of-sample root-mean-square error changed by <7 cases/100 000 compared to daily sampling across sewersheds. This work illustrates that real-time, daily predictions of IR are possible with small errors, despite changes in circulating variants, when sampling frequency is once every 4 days or more. However, reduced sampling frequency may not serve other important wastewater surveillance use cases.

Quantitative Reverse Transcription PCR Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in Wastewater of Two Counties in Texas, United States

After its emergence in late November/December 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus (SARS-CoV-2) rapidly spread globally. Recognizing that this virus is shed in feces of individuals and that viral RNA is detectable in wastewater, testing for SARS-CoV-2 in sewage collections systems has allowed for the monitoring of a community's viral burden. Over a 9 month period, the influents of two regional wastewater treatment facilities were concurrently examined for wild-type SARS-CoV-2 along with variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2 incorporated as they emerged. Epidemiological data including new confirmed COVID-19 cases and associated hospitalizations and fatalities were tabulated within each location. RNA from SARS-CoV-2 was detectable in 100% of the wastewater samples, while variant detection was more variable. Quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) results align with clinical trends for COVID-19 cases, and increases in COVID-19 cases were positively related with increases in SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in wastewater, although the strength of this relationship was location specific. Our observations demonstrate that clinical and wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 wild type and constantly emerging variants of concern can be combined using RT-qPCR to characterize population infection dynamics. This may provide an early warning for at-risk communities and increases in COVID-19 related hospitalizations.

Lineage abundance estimation for SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater using transcriptome quantification techniques

Effectively monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 mutants is essential to efforts to counter the ongoing pandemic. Predicting lineage abundance from wastewater, however, is technically challenging. We show that by sequencing SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and applying algorithms initially used for transcriptome quantification, we can estimate lineage abundance in wastewater samples. We find high variability in signal among individual samples, but the overall trends match those observed from sequencing clinical samples. Thus, while clinical sequencing remains a more sensitive technique for population surveillance, wastewater sequencing can be used to monitor trends in mutant prevalence in situations where clinical sequencing is unavailable.

Effectiveness of building-level sewage surveillance during both community-spread and sporadic-infection phases of SARS-CoV-2 in a university campus population

Pathogen surveillance within wastewater rapidly progressed during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and informed public health management. In addition to the successful monitoring of entire sewer catchment basins at the treatment facility scale, subcatchment or building-level monitoring enabled targeted support of resource deployment. However, optimizing the temporal and spatial resolution of these monitoring programs remains complex due to population dynamics and within-sewer physical, chemical, and biological processes. To address these limitations, this study explores the advancement of the building-scale network that monitored the on-campus residential population at the University of Colorado Boulder between August 2020 and May 2021 through a daily SARS-CoV-2 surveillance campaign. During the study period, SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence transitioned from robust community spread in Fall 2020 to sporadic infections in Spring 2021. Temporally, these distinct phases enabled investigating the effectiveness of resource commitment by exploring subsets of the original daily sampling data. Spatially, select sampling sites were installed along the flow path of the pipe network, enabling the exploration of the conservation of viral concentrations within the wastewater. Infection prevalence and resource commitment for informed action displayed an inverted relationship: higher temporal and spatial resolution surveillance is more imperative during sporadic infection phases than during high prevalence periods. This relationship was reinforced when norovirus (two minor clusters) and influenza (primarily absent) were additionally surveilled at a weekly frequency. Overall, resource commitment should scale to meet the objectives of the monitoring campaign-providing a general prevalence estimate requires fewer resources than an early-warning and targeted-action monitoring framework.

Scaling SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations to population estimates of infection

Monitoring the progression of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks requires accurate estimation of the unobservable fraction of the population infected over time in addition to the observed numbers of COVID-19 cases, as the latter present a distorted view of the pandemic due to changes in test frequency and coverage over time. The objective of this report is to describe and illustrate an approach that produces representative estimates of the unobservable cumulative incidence of infection by scaling the daily concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater from the consistent population contribution of fecal material to the sewage collection system.