Impact of Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: a natural experiment study using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

Almeida M, M.S. Menezes G, dos-Santos-Silva I, Azevedo e Silva G, Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira M, Barreto ML, Vittal Katikireddi S, Leyland AH, Ferreira Campos L, Maria Dias Fernandes de Novaes E, de Almeida Pereira D, Rodrigues Santana E, Rodrigues Gonçalves Zeferino F, Cleide da Silva Dias A, Fernandes FG, Cristina de Oliveira Costa A, M.L. Aquino E. Do social protection programmes affect the burden of breast and cervical cancer? A systematic review

Background

Socioeconomic conditions are strongly associated with breast and cervical cancer incidence and mortality patterns; therefore, social protection programmes (SPPs) might impact these cancers. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of SPPs on breast and cervical cancer outcomes and their risk/protective factors.

Methods

Five databases were searched for articles that assessed participation in PPS and the incidence, survival, mortality (primary outcomes), screening, staging at diagnosis and risk/protective factors (secondary outcomes) for these cancers. Only peer-reviewed quantitative studies of women receiving SPPs compared to eligible women not receiving benefits were included. Independent reviewers selected articles, assessed eligibility, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. A harvest plot represents the included studies and shows the direction of effect, sample size and risk of bias.

Findings

Of 17,080 documents retrieved, 43 studies were included in the review. No studies evaluated the primary outcomes. They all examined the relationship between SPPs and screening, as well as risk and protective factors. The harvest plot showed that in lower risk of bias studies, participants of SPPs had lower weight and fertility, were older at sexual debut, and breastfed their infants for longer.

Interpretation

No studies have yet assessed the effect of SPPs on breast and cervical cancer incidence, survival, or mortality; nevertheless, the existing evidence suggests positive impacts on risk and protective factors.

Epidemiology of cardiometabolic health in Latin America and strategies to address disparities

In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), sociodemographic context, socioeconomic disparities and the high level of urbanization provide a unique entry point to reflect on the burden of cardiometabolic disease in the region. Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death in LAC, precipitated by population growth and ageing together with a rapid increase in the prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors, predominantly obesity and diabetes mellitus, over the past four decades. Strategies to address this growing cardiometabolic burden include both population-wide and individual-based initiatives tailored to the specific challenges faced by different LAC countries, which are heterogeneous. The implementation of public policies to reduce smoking and health system approaches to control hypertension are examples of scalable strategies. The challenges faced by LAC are also opportunities to foster innovative approaches to combat the high burden of cardiometabolic diseases such as implementing digital health interventions and team-based initiatives. This Review provides a summary of trends in the epidemiology of cardiometabolic diseases and their risk factors in LAC as well as context-specific disease determinants and potential solutions to improve cardiometabolic health in the region.

The effect of conditional cash transfers on tuberculosis incidence and mortality is determined by ethnoracial and socioeconomic factors: a cohort study of 54 million individuals in Brazil

Background

Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT) are the world's most widely implemented interventions for poverty alleviation. Still, there is no solid evidence of the CCT effects on the reduction of the burden of Tuberculosis (TB) in marginalized and extremely vulnerable populations. We estimated the effect of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP), the largest CCT in the world, on TB incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rate using a nationwide cohort of 54.5 million individuals during a 12-year period in Brazil.

Methods

We selected low-income individuals who entered in the 100 Million Brazilians Cohort and were linked to nationwide TB registries between 2004 to 2015, and compared BFP beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries using a quasi-experimental impact evaluation design. We employed inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) multivariable Poisson regressions, adjusted for all relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare confounding variables - at individual and municipal level. Subsequently, we evaluated BFP effects for different subpopulations according to ethnoracial factors, wealth levels, sex, and age. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses to verify the robustness of the estimates.

Findings

Exposure to BFP was associated with a large reduction in TB incidence in the low-income individuals under study (adjusted rate ratio [aRR]:0.59;95%CI:0.58-0.60) and mortality (aRR:0.69;95%CI:0.65-0.73). The strongest BFP effect was observed in Indigenous people both for TB incidence (aRR:0.37;95%CI:0.32-0.42), and mortality-aRR:0.35;95%CI:0.20-0.62), and in Black and Pardo people (Incidence-aRR:0.58;95%CI:0.57-0.59; Mortality -aRR:0.69;95%CI:0,64-0,73). BFP effects showed a clear gradient according to wealth levels and were considerably stronger among the extremely poor individuals for TB incidence (aRR:0.49, 95%CI:0.49-0.50) and mortality (aRR:0.60;95%CI:0.55-0.65). The BFP effects on case-fatality rates were also positive, however without statistical significance.

Interpretation

CCT can strongly reduce TB incidence and mortality in extremely poor, Indigenous, Black and Pardo populations, and could significantly contribute to achieving the End TB Strategy targets and the TB-related Sustainable Development Goals.

The Impact of the Older Person's Grant Expansion on Hypertension Among Older Men in Rural South Africa: Findings From the HAALSI Cohort

Background and Objectives

Hypertension is a major modifiable contributor to disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. We exploited an expansion to age eligibility for men in South Africa's noncontributory public pension to assess the impact of pension eligibility on hypertension in a rural, low-income South African setting.

Research Design and Methods

Data were from 1 247 men aged ≥60 in the population-representative Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa in 2014/2015. We identified cohorts of men from 0 (controls, aged ≥65 at pension expansion) through 5 years of additional pension eligibility based on their birth year. Using the modified Framingham Heart Study hypertension risk prediction model, and the Wand et al. model modified for the South African population, we estimated the difference in the probabilities of hypertension for men who benefitted from the pension expansion relative to the control. We conducted a negative control analysis among older women, who were not eligible for pension expansion, to assess the robustness of our findings.

Results

Older men with 5 additional years of pension eligibility had a 6.9-8.1 percentage point greater probability of hypertension than expected without the pension expansion eligibility. After accounting for birth cohort effects through a negative control analysis involving older women reduced estimates to a 3.0-5.2 percentage point greater probability of hypertension than expected. We observed a mean 0.2 percentage point increase in the probability of hypertension per additional year of pension eligibility, but this trend was not statistically significant.

Discussion and Implications

Although the Older Person's Grant is important for improving the financial circumstances of older adults and their families in South Africa, expanded pension eligibility may have a small, negative short-term effect on hypertension among older men in this rural, South African setting.

Income Segregation, Conditional Cash Transfers, and Breast Cancer Mortality Among Women in Brazil

Importance

Women living in income-segregated areas are less likely to receive adequate breast cancer care and access community resources, which may heighten breast cancer mortality risk.

Objective

To investigate the association between income segregation and breast cancer mortality and whether this association is attenuated by receipt of the Bolsa Família program (BFP), the world's largest conditional cash-transfer program.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted using data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort, which were linked with nationwide mortality registries (2004-2015). Data were analyzed from December 2021 to June 2023. Study participants were women aged 18 to 100 years.

Exposure

Women's income segregation (high, medium, or low) at the municipality level was obtained using income data from the 2010 Brazilian census and assessed using dissimilarity index values in tertiles (low [0.01-0.25], medium [0.26-0.32], and high [0.33-0.73]).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was breast cancer mortality. Mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for the association of segregation with breast cancer deaths were estimated using Poisson regression adjusted for age, race, education, municipality area size, population density, area of residence (rural or urban), and year of enrollment. Multiplicative interactions of segregation and BFP receipt (yes or no) in the association with mortality (2004-2015) were assessed.

Results

Data on 21 680 930 women (mean [SD] age, 36.1 [15.3] years) were analyzed. Breast cancer mortality was greater among women living in municipalities with high (adjusted MRR [aMRR], 1.18; 95% CI, 1.13-1.24) and medium (aMRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.12) compared with low segregation. Women who did not receive BFP had higher breast cancer mortality than BFP recipients (aMRR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.12-1.22). By BFP strata, women who did not receive BFP and lived in municipalities with high income segregation had a 24% greater risk of death from breast cancer compared with those living in municipalities with low income segregation (aMRR, 1.24: 95% CI, 1.14-1.34); women who received BFP and were living in areas with high income segregation had a 13% higher risk of death from breast cancer compared with those living in municipalities with low income segregation (aMRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07-1.19; P for interaction = .008). Stratified by the amount of time receiving the benefit, segregation (high vs low) was associated with an increase in mortality risk for women receiving BFP for less time but not for those receiving it for more time (<4 years: aMRR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.27; 4-11 years: aMRR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00-1.17; P for interaction <.001).

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that place-based inequities in breast cancer mortality associated with income segregation may be mitigated with BFP receipt, possibly via improved income and access to preventive cancer care services among women, which may be associated with early detection and treatment and ultimately reduced mortality.

Association of Conditional Cash Transfers With Maternal Mortality Using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

IMPORTANCE

Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been consistently associated with improvements to the determinants of maternal health, but there have been insufficient investigations regarding their effects on maternal mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between being a Bolsa Família program (BFP) beneficiary and maternal mortality and to examine how this association differs by duration of BFP receipt, maternal race, living in rural or urban areas, the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI), and municipal primary health care coverage.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional analysis was nested within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort. Girls and women aged 10 to 49 years (hereinafter referred to as women) who had at least 1 live birth were included, using data from Brazilian national health databases linked to the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2015). Propensity score kernel weighting was applied to control for sociodemographic and economic confounders in the association between BFP receipt and maternal mortality, overall and stratified by different subgroups (race, urban or rural area, and MHDI), and duration of BFP receipt. Data were analyzed from July 12, 2019, to December 31, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURES

Maternal death.

RESULTS

A total of 6 677 273 women aged 10 to 49 years were included in the analysis, 4056 of whom had died from pregnancy-related causes. The risk of maternal death was 18% lower in women who received BFP (weighted odds ratio [OR], 0.82 [95% CI, 0.71-0.93]). A longer duration receiving BFP was associated with an increased reduction in maternal mortality (OR for 1-4 years, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75-0.97]; OR for 5-8 years, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.60-0.82]; OR for ≥9 years, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.53-0.88]). Receiving BFP was also associated with substantial increases in the number of prenatal appointments and interbirth intervals. The reduction was more pronounced in the most vulnerable groups.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cross-sectional analysis nested within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort found an association between BFP receipt and maternal mortality. This association was of greater magnitude in women with longer exposure to BFP and in the most vulnerable groups. These findings reinforce evidence that programs such as BFP, which have already proven effective in poverty reduction, have great potential to improve maternal survival.