Predicting incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease from UK dietary exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy for the 1940 to 1969 and post-1969 birth cohorts

[Prion diseases or transmissible spongiform encephalopathies]

Prion diseases or transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are human and animal diseases naturally or experimentally transmissible with a long incubation period and a fatal course without remission. The nature of the transmissible agent remains debated but the absence of a structure evoking a conventional microorganism led Stanley B. Prusiner to hypothesize that it could be an infectious protein (proteinaceous infectious particle or prion). The prion would be the abnormal form of a normal protein, cellular PrP (PrP^c) which will change its spatial conformation and be converted into scrapie prion protein (PrP^sc) with properties of partial resistance to proteases, aggregation and insolubility in detergents. No inflammatory or immune response are detected in TSEs which are characterized by brain damage combining spongiosis, neuronal loss, astrocytic gliosis, and deposits of PrP^sc that may appear as amyloid plaques. Although the link between the accumulation of PrP^sc and the appearance of lesions remains debated, the presence of PrP^sc is constant during TSE and necessary for a definitive diagnosis. Even if they remain rare diseases (2 cases per million), the identification of kuru, at the end of the 1950s, of iatrogenic cases in the course of the 1970s and of the variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in the mid-1990s explain the interest in these diseases but also the fears they can raise for public health. They remain an exciting research model because they belong both to the group of neurodegenerative diseases with protein accumulation (sporadic CJD), to the group of communicable diseases (iatrogenic CJD, variant of CJD) but also to the group of genetic diseases with a transmission Mendelian dominant (genetic CJD, Gerstmann-Straussler-Scheinker syndrome, fatal familial insomnia).

Understanding Prion Strains: Evidence from Studies of the Disease Forms Affecting Humans

Prion diseases are a unique group of rare neurodegenerative disorders characterized by tissue deposition of heterogeneous aggregates of abnormally folded protease-resistant prion protein (PrP^Sc), a broad spectrum of disease phenotypes and a variable efficiency of disease propagation in vivo. The dominant clinicopathological phenotypes of human prion disease include Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease, fatal insomnia, variably protease-sensitive prionopathy, and Gerstmann–Sträussler–Scheinker disease. Prion disease propagation into susceptible hosts led to the isolation and characterization of prion strains, initially operatively defined as “isolates” causing diseases with distinctive characteristics, such as the incubation period, the pattern of PrP^Sc distribution, and the regional severity of neuropathological changes after injection into syngeneic hosts. More recently, the structural basis of prion strains has been linked to amyloid polymorphs (i.e., variant amyloid protein conformations) and the concept extended to all protein amyloids showing polymorphic structures and some evidence of in vivo or in vitro propagation by seeding. Despite the significant advances, however, the link between amyloid structure and disease is not understood in many instances. Here we reviewed the most significant contributions of human prion disease studies to current knowledge of the molecular basis of phenotypic variability and the prion strain phenomenon and underlined the unsolved issues from the human disease perspective.

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

Variant CJD (vCJD) was described first in the United Kingdom in 1996. It is a zoonotic form of human prion disease, originating from dietary contamination of human food with material from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-affected cattle. It has important epidemiologic, clinical, and neuropathogic differences from other forms of human prion disease. Cases have occurred in several countries but the United Kingdom and France have been most affected. Following the decline in BSE in cattle and the dietary protective measures adopted, vCJD has become an extremely rare disease. However, important concerns remain about asymptomatic infection in human populations (especially the United Kingdom) and the possibility of human-to-human transmission via medical and surgical interventions. Definitive diagnosis depends on neuropathology, usually undertaken at autopsy, but sometimes on brain biopsy. Clinical diagnosis with a reasonable degree of likelihood is, however, possible based on the clinical features and the finding of the pulvinar sign on cerebral magnetic resonance. There are also emerging tests (including blood tests) that have promising sensitivity and specificity for vCJD. It is a progressive illness, inevitably fatal with no curative treatment.

Infectious and Sporadic Prion Diseases

Prion diseases are progressive fatal encephalopathies characterized by a neurodegenerative pathology, the tissue deposition of abnormally folded prion protein and, in general, potential transmissibility. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is the commonest human prion disease and occurs in three principal forms: sporadic (idiopathic), acquired (infectious), and inherited (genetic). This chapter concerns the sporadic and acquired forms. Sporadic CJD occurs worldwide and affects mainly the middle aged and elderly. There are recognized genetic risk factors-most importantly the PRNP-129 polymorphism. The acquired forms of CJD consist of iatrogenic CJD (accidental transmission of CJD via medical or surgical procedures) and variant CJD (vJCD) (which originated as a zoonosis via bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-contamination of human food). The main causes of iatrogenic CJD are cadaveric-derived human growth hormone treatment and dura mater surgical grafts. The PRNP-129 polymorphism has important effects on iatrogenic infection, including overall susceptibility and incubation period. vCJD, resulting from dietary exposure to BSE, has affected mostly the United Kingdom, followed by France. All tested cases were originally PRNP-129MM, although two MV cases have been identified recently (one possible; one definite). vCJD has been secondarily transmitted via blood transfusion and a blood product. There is continuing concern over secondary transmission since there is evidence-from lymphoreticular tissue studies-of extensive subclinical infection in the UK general population, although a further recent study has caused uncertainty over the significance of the previous studies. While definitive diagnosis of CJD is pathological, recent developments in protein amplification and detection have led to significantly better clinical diagnosis.

A Bayesian back-calculation method to estimate the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada during the period 1996-2011

Seventeen typical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) were detected in Canada the period of 2003-2011. The clinical incidence of BSE was censored by early slaughter, death, or exportation of infected cattle due to the long incubation period of BSE disease. The aim of this study was to estimate the infection incidence of BSE in birth cohorts during 1996-2004 and project infection frequency through to 2007. An estimate of the number of asymptomatic infected cattle slaughtered for human consumption is also provided. The number of incident, asymptomatic cases was assumed to follow a Poisson process. A Bayesian back-calculation approach was used to project the risk of contracting BSE in those birth cohorts. Model parameters and inputs were taken from scientific literature and governmental data sources. The projected number of infected cattle in birth cohorts spanning the period 1996-2007 was 492, with median 95% credible interval 258-830. If the requirement to remove specified risk material (SRM) from cattle prior to entering the food chain was not in place, the predicted number of slaughtered infected in the human food chain from 1996-2010 was 298, with a 95% credible interval 156-500. The magnitude of the BSE epidemic in Canada for 1996-2007 birth cohorts was estimated to be approximately 28-fold higher than the number of clinical cases detected through to October 2011. Although some of those cattle were slaughtered for human consumption, the requirement of SRM removal may have prevented most of the infectious material from entering the food chain.

Effectiveness of the BSE interventions in Japan

Using a stochastic simulation model, we estimated the effectiveness of the three BSE interventions (SRM removal, post-mortem testing and cohort culling) in Japan, in terms of the amount of bovine ID50 that would be prevented from entering the human food supply and the number of life years that would be saved from resulting vCJD cases. The average reduction of the BSE load on the human food supply under SRM removal was 97% over the period from 2002 to 2009. The average reduction of the BSE load under most-mortem testing was 83% over the period from 2002 to 2007. The risk reducing effect of the three interventions combined was 99%. The maximum number of life years saved by the three interventions combined was 40.84 in 2006.

Estimation of the exposure of the UK population to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy agent through dietary intake during the period 1980 to 1996

Although the incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) has declined to 1 since 2012 in the UK, uncertainty remains regarding possible future cases and the size of the subclinical population that may cause secondary transmission of the disease through blood transfusion. Estimating the number of individuals who were exposed to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectious agent and may be susceptible to vCJD will help to clarify related public health concerns and plan strategies. In this paper, we explore this estimate by describing the probability of potential exposure due to dietary intake throughout the BSE epidemic period from 1980 to 1996 as a stochastic Poisson process. We estimate the age- and gender-specific exposure intensities in food categories of beef and beef-containing dishes, burgers and kebabs, pies, and sausages, separating the two periods of 1980-1989 and 1990-1996 due to the specified bovine offal legislation of 1989. The estimated total number of (living) exposed individuals during each period is 5,089,027 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,514,963-6,410,317), which was obtained by multiplying the population size of different birth cohorts by the probability of exposure via dietary intake and the probability of survival until the end of 2013. The estimated number is approximately doubled, assuming a contamination rate of [Formula: see text]. Among those individuals estimated, 31,855 (95% CI 26,849-42,541) are susceptible to infection. We also examined the threshold hypothesis by fitting an extreme-value distribution to the estimated infectious dose of the exposed individuals and obtained a threshold estimate of 13.7 bID50 (95% CI 6.6-26.2 bID50) (Weibull). The results provide useful information on potential carriers of prion disease who may pose a threat of infection via blood transfusion and thus provide insight into the likelihood of new incidents of vCJD occurring in the future.

Eye banking and corneal transplantation communicable adverse incidents: current status and project NOTIFY

PURPOSE

Evidence of the transmission of disease via donor ocular tissue has been demonstrated for adenocarcinoma, rabies, hepatitis B virus, cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, and a variety of bacterial and fungal infections.

METHODS

Although there is no evidence to date of disease transmission for HIV infection, syphilis, hepatitis C, hepatitis A, tuberculosis, HTLV-1 and -2 infection, active leprosy, active typhoid, smallpox, and active malaria, these entities remain contraindications for transplantation for all eye banks nationally and internationally. The potential sources of contamination include infected donors, during the process of removing tissue from cadaveric donors, the processing environment, and contaminated supplies and reagents used during processing. The transmissions of Herpes simplex virus and HSV via corneal graft have been shown to be responsible for primary graft failure. HSV-1 may also be an important cause of PFG.

RESULTS

The long latency period of some diseases, the emergence of new infectious disease, and the reemergence of others emphasize the need for long-term record maintenance and effective tracing capabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The standardization of definitions for adverse events and reactions will be necessary to support the prevention and transmission of disease. International classification of a unique identification system for donors will be increasingly important for vigilance and traceability in cross-national exportation of human cells, tissues, and cellular- and tissue-based products. Opportunities for continuous improvement exist as does the need for constant vigilance and surveillance.

[Epidemiological surveillance of Creutzfeldt-Jakob in France]

INTRODUCTION

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) have been under epidemiological surveillance in France and in Europe since the early 1990s. The observation of iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (ESB) and its probable transmission to many species gave rise to the surveillance which remains warranted by the emergence of a variant of CJD (vCJD), in 1996.

STATE OF ART

In France, epidemiological surveillance is coordinated by the InVS which receives input from cases notifications addressed to INSERM Unit 708 directly by clinicians or more often following requests for 14-3-3 detection in CSF. All suspected cases are followed up until a final diagnosis is established. Thanks to the effectiveness of the French network of neuropathology, autopsies are performed in more than half of patients who die with a diagnosis of suspected CJD. Diagnostic criteria allow comparison of the incidence of the different forms of the disease in all countries with a system of surveillance. Sporadic CJD is the most frequent form of the disease with more than 80% of the cases. Its origin remains unknown. To date, cases of iatrogenic CJD referred to the French surveillance network have been caused by dura mater grafts or human growth hormone treatments administrated in the 1980s. Ten percent of TSE are of genetic origin with an autosomic dominant transmission of a mutation or an insertion located on the PRNP gene. The most recent form of the disease is vCJD which is a new form, first described in the United Kingdom in 1994.

PROSPECT AND CONCLUSION

Active epidemiological surveillance remains a timely issue, particularly in France, because of the development of new cases of iatrogenic CJD after human growth hormone treatment. It is of importance in France and worldwide because of the emergence of post-transfusional cases of vCJD and the possible appearance of vCJD in persons with valine-valine or methionine-valine genotypes at codon 129.

The price of the precautionary principle: cost-effectiveness of BSE intervention strategies in The Netherlands

Since 1996, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle has been linked to a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), a fatal brain disease in man. This paper assessed the cost-effectiveness of BSE control strategies instituted by the European Commission. In a Monte Carlo simulation model, a non-intervention baseline scenario was compared to three intervention strategies: removal of specified risk materials from slaughter animals, post-mortem testing for BSE and the culling of feed and age cohorts of BSE cases. The food risk in the baseline scenario ranged from 16.98 lost life years in 2002 to 2.69 lost life years in 2005. Removing specified risk materials removal practices, post-mortem testing and post-mortem testing plus cohort culling reduced this risk with 93%, 82.7% and 83.1%. The estimated cost-effectiveness of all BSE measures in The Netherlands ranged from 4.3 million euros per life year saved in 2002 to 17.7 million euros in 2005. It was discussed that the cost-effectiveness of BSE control strategies will further deviate from regular health economics thresholds as BSE prevalence and incidence declines.

Specific features of the prion protein transmembrane domain regulate nascent chain orientation

The sequence of a transmembrane (TM) domain and the adjacent regions are important for recognition, orientation, and integration at the translocon during membrane protein biosynthesis. However, the sequences of individual TM domains vary considerably. Although some general effects of electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions have been observed, it is still not clear what features of diverse sequences influence TM domain orientation. Here we utilized the ability of the prion protein (PrP) to be synthesized in multiple topological forms to assay the effects of substitutions and mutations on TM domain orientation. Several of the TM domains we tested appear to contain no inherent information regulating orientation. In contrast, we found that the middle region of the PrP TM domain significantly reduces the ability of the chain to invert its orientation in the translocon. We also observed that the C-terminal region of the PrP TM domain influences orientation, and we characterized the orientation differences between two forms of a physiologically relevant polymorphism in this region. Specifically, we found that the identity of a single amino acid, that at position 129, can significantly alter PrP TM domain orientation. Because position 129 is the location of the disease-associated Met/Val polymorphism, we discuss both how this small change may affect TMD orientation and the larger biological implications of these results.

Évaluation du risque transfusionnel vis-à-vis de la variante de la maladie de Creutzfeldt-Jakob en France

The latest updates (February 2004 and February 2005) of the analysis of the risk of transmission of the agent of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) by blood and blood products in France firstly reported in 2000, were triggered by the two cases of probable transmission of variant CJD (vCJD) by transfusion reported in the UK, and the notification of two French cases of vCJD who had been blood donors on several occasions before clinical onset. Even though some figures of the quantitative assumption used in the risk analysis have been modified since 2000, the conclusion as regards the risk for blood cellular component is considered unchanged: it can be assumed that one unit of labile blood products will contain more than one infectious unit if the donor is incubating the disease. Therefore, the residual risk of receiving by transfusion one infectious blood unit is depending on the prevalence of subjects incubating the disease in the blood donor population. For this particular aspect, the expected number of clinical vCJD cases to occur in France has been lowered since 2000. However, the worst-case scenario of 300 cases in the next 60 years has been maintained in the risk analysis, leading to the hypothesis that one blood donor per 120,000 could be infectious. In conclusion, the risk of getting one infectious blood unit is considered probable to a level of 1/120,000, but the benefit outweighs the risk if the use of transfusion is restricted to well justified indications and if patients are informed a priori and a posteriori.

Projections of the future course of the primary vCJD epidemic in the UK: inclusion of subclinical infection and the possibility of wider genetic susceptibility

The incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in the United Kingdom appears to be in decline, with only four deaths reported this year (to 6 September 2004). However, results of a survey of lymphoreticular tissues have suggested a substantially higher prevalence of vCJD than expected from the clinical data alone. There are two plausible explanations for this discrepancy: first, a proportion of those infected will not develop clinical disease (subclinical infection); and second, the genetic group in which no clinical cases of vCJD have yet occurred is susceptible. Using mathematical models for the primary transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy to humans, we explore the impact of these hypotheses on case predictions. Under the first hypothesis, the results suggest relatively few future cases will arise via primary transmission, but that these cases are a small proportion of those infected, with most having subclinical infection. Under the second hypothesis, results suggest a maximum fivefold increase in cases, but this hypothesis is unable to account for the discrepancy between clinical cases and the estimated prevalence. Predictions of future cases of vCJD therefore remain uncertain, particularly given the recent identification of additional cases infected via blood transfusion.

[Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in France: estimating the number of cases related to travel to the United Kingdom between 1980 and 1995]

BACKGROUND

The outbreak of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) cases rose serious concerns about secondary transmission of the disease, particularly through blood transfusion. Protective measures leading to the exclusion of potentially infectious blood donors were settled: in France, donors who had stayed more than one year in the UK were excluded. In this work, which was part of a larger study aiming to estimate the French epidemic of vCJD, the number of vCJD cases who were infected during a trip to the UK was estimated. Those estimates may notably enable the assessment of such exclusion measures.

METHODS

The particular age-related structure in vCJD cases is taken into account in our simulations considering birth cohorts in the population. The total French exposure is simulated assuming the main source of infection to be dietary through consumption of mechanically recovered meat (MRM) manufactured from British bovine carcasses. Then, using a "back calculation" algorithm, all infected individuals required to produce a consistent epidemic (6 vCJD cases in 2003) was simulated. This study was exclusively focused on the part of the exposure linked to trips (beef MRM consumed in the UK while traveling) and on cases resulting from this exposure.

RESULTS

The influence of exposure linked to trips to the UK was greater in the youngest cohort (6.3% of the total exposure) while it only accounted for 3.3% and 1% in the 1939-69 and in the pre-1939 birth cohorts respectively. Overall, exposure resulting from trips in the UK can be neglected with regards to the exposure linked to the consumption of MRM produced in France from British bovine carcasses. Consequently, French vCJD cases that would have been infected in the UK are very unlikely to occur (median: 0 case, IC 95%: (0-2)). Nevertheless, if such cases occur, they would probably occur in subjects born after 1969 and their onset would take place before 2010. Thus, unlike the situation in BSE-free countries, the causal relationship between travel in the UK and occurrence of vCJD cases cannot be underlined in France, as trips only account for a small part of the French exposure.

CONCLUSION

Since trips in the UK slightly contribute to the overall French exposure, excluding people who travelled in the UK from blood donation would not influence the risk of secondary transmission.

American fresh frozen plasma for neonates and children

From the spring of 2004 the United Kingdom Blood Services have been importing fresh frozen plasma from United States donors for all neonates and children born after 1 January 1996. The decision to mandate the use of American plasma in this age group was taken by the Department of Health in 2002 as part of its precautionary approach to the risk of transfusion transmitted variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. In this article we explain the background to this decision and explore some of the implications it raises for clinical practice.

Attributable testing for abnormal prion protein, database linkage, and blood-borne vCJD risks

CONTEXT

National prospective collection of tonsillar tissue to be tested anonymously for abnormal lymphoreticular accumulation of prion protein (PrP) was approved to begin in the UK in 2004. The UK is not, however, testing autopsy specimens attributably for abnormal PrP (PrP(SC)) so that recipients at risk after a blood transfusion from, or exposed to surgical instruments from, a deceased carrier of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) can be followed up to quantify transmission risks. In Switzerland, surveillance for subclinical vCJD includes unconsented testing in autopsies: consented testing of tonsillar tissue is potentially attributable to interrupt human-to-human vCJD transmission or treat it.

STARTING POINT

The UK announced its first case of probable blood-borne vCJD transmission in December, 2003, and first detected a case of probable blood-borne subclinical vCJD in July, 2004. To reduce the possible risk of onward transmission to other people, UK patients who had received vCJD-implicated plasma products are being contacted. They, and their general practitioner, are asked to inform anyone giving them medical, surgical, or dental treatment, and the patients must refrain from donating blood, tissues, or organs. WHERE NEXT? Prudent additional surveillance options for human PrP(SC)--particularly at autopsy or to sanction the release of quarantined operation sets pending effective decontamination--can be costed by reference to results for cattle and sheep. Some ethical or legal impediments to the UK's potentially-attributable testing for PrP(SC) may yet be rued.

Epidemiological evidence of higher susceptibility to vCJD in the young

Background

The strikingly young age of new variant Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease (vCJD) cases remains unexplained. Age dependent susceptibility to infection has been put forward, but differential dietary exposure to contaminated food products in the UK population according to age and sex during the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic may provide a simpler explanation.

Methods

Using recently published estimates of dietary exposure in mathematical models of the epidemiology of the new variant Creutzfeldt Jacob disease (vCJD), we examine whether the age characteristics of vCJD cases may be reproduced.

Results

The susceptibility/exposure risk function has likely peaked in adolescents and was followed by a sharp decrease with age, evocative of the profile of exposure to bovine material consumption according to age. However, assuming that the risk of contamination was proportional to exposure, with no age dependent susceptibility, the model failed to reproduce the observed age characteristics of the vCJD cases: The predicted cumulated proportion of cases over 40 years was 48%, in strong disagreement with the observed 10%. Incorporating age dependent susceptibility led to a cumulated proportion of cases over 40 years old of 12%.

Conclusions

This analysis provides evidence that differential dietary exposure alone fails to explain the pattern of age in vCJD cases. Decreasing age related susceptibility is required to reproduce the characteristics of the age distribution of vCJD cases.