Preparing for the Next Influenza Pandemic: The Development of a Universal Influenza Vaccine

Evaluating the Public Health and Health Economic Impacts of Baloxavir Marboxil and Oseltamivir for Influenza Pandemic Control in China: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Using a Linked Dynamic Transmission-Economic Evaluation Model

BACKGROUND

Pandemic influenza poses a recurring threat to public health. Antiviral drugs are vital in combating influenza pandemics. Baloxavir marboxil (BXM) is a novel agent that provides clinical and public health benefits in influenza treatment.

METHODS

We constructed a linked dynamic transmission-economic evaluation model combining a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model and a decision tree model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding BXM to oseltamivir in China's influenza pandemic scenario. The cost-effectiveness was evaluated for the general population from the Chinese healthcare system perspective, although the users of BXM and oseltamivir were influenza-infected persons. The SEIR model simulated the transmission dynamics, dividing the population into four compartments: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered, while the decision tree model assessed disease severity and costs. We utilized data from clinical trials and observational studies in the literature to parameterize the models. Costs were based on 2021 CN¥ and not discounted due to a short time-frame of one year in the model. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also conducted.

RESULTS

The integrated model demonstrated that adding BXM to treatment choices reduced the cumulative incidence of infection from 49.49% to 43.26% and increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 0.00021 per person compared with oseltamivir alone in the base-case scenario. The intervention also amounted to a positive net monetary benefit of CN¥77.85 per person at the willingness to pay of CN¥80,976 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings, with consistent results across varied key parameters and assumptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding BXM to treatment choices instead of only treating with oseltamivir for influenza pandemic control in China appears to be cost-effective compared with oseltamivir alone. The dual-agent strategy not only enhances population health outcomes and conserves resources, but also mitigates influenza transmission and alleviates healthcare burden.

Heterologous prime-boost H1N1 vaccination exacerbates disease following challenge with a mismatched H1N2 influenza virus in the swine model

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) pose a significant threat to both human and animal health. Developing IAV vaccine strategies able to elicit broad heterologous protection against antigenically diverse IAV strains is pivotal in effectively controlling the disease. The goal of this study was to examine the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of diverse H1N1 influenza vaccine strategies including monovalent, bivalent, and heterologous prime-boost vaccination regimens, against a mismatched H1N2 swine influenza virus. Five groups were homologous prime-boost vaccinated with either an oil-adjuvanted whole-inactivated virus (WIV) monovalent A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019 (GA19) H1N2 vaccine, a WIV monovalent A/sw/Minnesota/A02636116/2021 (MN21) H1N1 vaccine, a WIV monovalent A/California/07/2009 (CA09) H1N1, a WIV bivalent vaccine composed of CA09 and MN21, or adjuvant only (mock-vaccinated group). A sixth group was prime-vaccinated with CA09 WIV and boosted with MN21 WIV (heterologous prime-boost group). Four weeks post-boost pigs were intranasally and intratracheally challenged with A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019, an H1N2 swine IAV field isolate. Vaccine-induced protection was evaluated based on five critical parameters: (i) hemagglutination inhibiting (HAI) antibody responses, (ii) clinical scores, (iii) virus titers in nasal swabs and respiratory tissue homogenates, (iv) BALf cytology, and (v) pulmonary pathology. While all vaccination regimens induced seroprotective titers against homologous viruses, heterologous prime-boost vaccination failed to enhance HAI responses against the homologous vaccine strains compared to monovalent vaccine regimens and did not expand the scope of cross-reactive antibody responses against antigenically distinct swine and human IAVs. Mismatched vaccination regimens not only failed to confer clinical and virological protection post-challenge but also exacerbated disease and pathology. In particular, heterologous-boosted pigs showed prolonged clinical disease and increased pulmonary pathology compared to mock-vaccinated pigs. Our results demonstrated that H1-specific heterologous prime-boost vaccination, rather than enhancing cross-protection, worsened the clinical outcome and pathology after challenge with the antigenically distant A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019 strain.

Recent Progress in Recombinant Influenza Vaccine Development Toward Heterosubtypic Immune Response

Flu, a viral infection caused by the influenza virus, is still a global public health concern with potential to cause seasonal epidemics and pandemics. Vaccination is considered the most effective protective strategy against the infection. However, given the high plasticity of the virus and the suboptimal immunogenicity of existing influenza vaccines, scientists are moving toward the development of universal vaccines. An important property of universal vaccines is their ability to induce heterosubtypic immunity, i.e., a wide immune response coverage toward different influenza subtypes. With the increasing number of studies and mounting evidence on the safety and efficacy of recombinant influenza vaccines (RIVs), they have been proposed as promising platforms for the development of universal vaccines. This review highlights the current progress and advances in the development of RIVs in the context of heterosubtypic immunity induction toward universal vaccine production. In particular, this review discussed existing knowledge on influenza and vaccine development, current hemagglutinin-based RIVs in the market and in the pipeline, other potential vaccine targets for RIVs (neuraminidase, matrix 1 and 2, nucleoprotein, polymerase acidic, and basic 1 and 2 antigens), and deantigenization process. This review also provided discussion points and future perspectives in looking at RIVs as potential universal vaccine candidates for influenza.

A Research and Development (R&D) roadmap for influenza vaccines: Looking toward the future

Improved influenza vaccines are urgently needed to reduce the burden of seasonal influenza and to ensure a rapid and effective public-health response to future influenza pandemics. The Influenza Vaccines Research and Development (R&D) Roadmap (IVR) was created, through an extensive international stakeholder engagement process, to promote influenza vaccine R&D. The roadmap covers a 10-year timeframe and is organized into six sections: virology; immunology; vaccinology for seasonal influenza vaccines; vaccinology for universal influenza vaccines; animal and human influenza virus infection models; and policy, finance, and regulation. Each section identifies barriers, gaps, strategic goals, milestones, and additional R&D priorities germane to that area. The roadmap includes 113 specific R&D milestones, 37 of which have been designated high priority by the IVR expert taskforce. This report summarizes the major issues and priority areas of research outlined in the IVR. By identifying the key issues and steps to address them, the roadmap not only encourages research aimed at new solutions, but also provides guidance on the use of innovative tools to drive breakthroughs in influenza vaccine R&D.

Glycomacromolecules: Addressing challenges in drug delivery and therapeutic development

Carbohydrate-based materials offer exciting opportunities for drug delivery. They present readily available, biocompatible components for the construction of macromolecular systems which can be loaded with cargo, and can enable targeting of a payload to particular cell types through carbohydrate recognition events established in biological systems. These systems can additionally be engineered to respond to environmental stimuli, enabling triggered release of payload, to encompass multiple modes of therapeutic action, or to simultaneously fulfil a secondary function such as enabling imaging of target tissue. Here, we will explore the use of glycomacromolecules to deliver therapeutic benefits to address key health challenges, and suggest future directions for development of next-generation systems.

A comprehensive influenza reporter virus panel for high-throughput deep profiling of neutralizing antibodies

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) have been developed as potential countermeasures for seasonal and pandemic influenza. Deep characterization of these bnAbs and polyclonal sera provides pivotal understanding for influenza immunity and informs effective vaccine design. However, conventional virus neutralization assays require high-containment laboratories and are difficult to standardize and roboticize. Here, we build a panel of engineered influenza viruses carrying a reporter gene to replace an essential viral gene, and develop an assay using the panel for in-depth profiling of neutralizing antibodies. Replication of these viruses is restricted to cells expressing the missing viral gene, allowing it to be manipulated in a biosafety level 2 environment. We generate the neutralization profile of 24 bnAbs using a 55-virus panel encompassing the near-complete diversity of human H1N1 and H3N2, as well as pandemic subtype viruses. Our system offers in-depth profiling of influenza immunity, including the antibodies against the hemagglutinin stem, a major target of universal influenza vaccines.

One hundred years after the 1918 pandemic: new concepts for preparing for influenza pandemics

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In the 100 years since the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, the most deadly event in human history, we have made substantial progress yet we remain vulnerable to influenza pandemics This article provides a brief overview of important advances in preparing for an influenza pandemic, viewed largely from the perspective of the healthcare system.

RECENT FINDINGS

We have gained insights into influenza pathogenicity, the animal reservoir and have improved global surveillance for new strains and tools for assessing the pandemic risk posed by novel strains. Public health has refined plans for severity assessment, distribution of countermeasures and nonpharmaceutical approaches. Modest improvements in vaccine technology include cell culture-based vaccines, adjuvanted vaccine and recombinant technology. Conventional infection control tools will be critical in healthcare settings. New evidence suggests that influenza virus may be present in aerosols; the contribution of airborne transmission and role of N95 respirators remains unknown. Baloxavir and pimodivir are new antivirals that may improve treatment, especially for severely ill patients. Optimal use and the risk of resistance require further study.

SUMMARY

Despite the progress in pandemic preparedness, gaps remain including important scientific questions, adequate resources and most importantly, the ability to rapidly deliver highly effective vaccines.