Cancer survival: an overview of measures, uses, and interpretation

Survival difference between secondary and de novo acute myeloid leukemia by age, antecedent cancer types, and chemotherapy receipt

BACKGROUND

This study compared the survival of persons with secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML) to those with de novo AML (dnAML) by age at AML diagnosis, chemotherapy receipt, and cancer type preceding sAML diagnosis.

METHODS

Data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 17 Registries were used, which included 47,704 individuals diagnosed with AML between 2001 and 2018. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compare AML-specific survival between sAML and dnAML. Trends in 5-year age-standardized relative survival were examined via the Joinpoint survival model.

RESULTS

Overall, individuals with sAML had an 8% higher risk of dying from AML (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.11) compared to those with dnAML. Disparities widened with younger age at diagnosis, particularly in those who received chemotherapy for AML (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.10-1.19). In persons aged 20-64 years and who received chemotherapy, HRs were greatest for those with antecedent myelodysplastic syndrome (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.83-2.28), ovarian cancer (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.19-3.08), head and neck cancer (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02-2.36), leukemia (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.12-1.89), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20-1.69). Among those aged ≥65 years and who received chemotherapy, HRs were highest for those with antecedent cervical cancer (HR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.15-5.10) and myelodysplastic syndrome (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.19-1.38). The 5-year relative survival improved 0.3% per year for sAML slower than 0.86% per year for dnAML. Consequently, the survival gap widened from 7.2% (95% CI, 5.4%-9.0%) during the period 2001-2003 to 14.3% (95% CI, 12.8%-15.8%) during the period 2012-2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant survival disparities exist between sAML and dnAML on the basis of age at diagnosis, chemotherapy receipt, and antecedent cancer, which highlights opportunities to improve outcomes among those diagnosed with sAML.

Healthy lifestyle and cancer survival: A multinational cohort study

Lifestyle factors after a cancer diagnosis could influence the survival of cancer 60 survivors. To examine the independent and joint associations of healthy lifestyle factors with mortality outcomes among cancer survivors, four prospective cohorts (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey [NHANES], National Health Interview Survey [NHIS], UK Biobank [UKB] and Kailuan study) across three countries. A healthy lifestyle score (HLS) was defined based on five common lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol drinking, diet, physical activity and body mass index) that related to cancer survival. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations of individual lifestyle factors and HLS with all-cause and cancer mortality among cancer survivors. During the follow-up period of 37,095 cancer survivors, 8927 all-cause mortality events were accrued in four cohorts and 4449 cancer death events were documented in the UK and US cohorts. Never smoking (adjusted HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.69-0.86), light alcohol consumption (adjusted HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.82-0.90), adequate physical activity (adjusted HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.85-0.94), a healthy diet (adjusted HR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.61-0.78) and optimal BMI (adjusted HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.85-0.93) were significantly associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality. In the joint analyses of HLS, the HR of all-cause and cancer mortality for cancer survivors with a favorable HLS (4 and 5 healthy lifestyle factors) were 0.55 (95% CI 0.42-0.64) and 0.57 (95% CI 0.44-0.72), respectively. This multicohort study of cancer survivors from the United States, the United Kingdom and China found that greater adherence to a healthy lifestyle might be beneficial in improving cancer prognosis.

Treatment and survival of patients diagnosed with high-risk HR+/HER2- breast cancer in the Netherlands: a population-based retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Several factors may increase the risk of recurrence of patients diagnosed with hormone receptor-positive human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer (BC). We aim to determine the proportion of patients with high-risk HR+/HER2- BC within the total HR+/HER2- BC cohort and compare their systemic treatments and survival rates with those of patients with low- and intermediate-risk HR+/HER2- BC and triple-negative (TN) BC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Women diagnosed with nonmetastatic invasive HR+/HER2- BC and TNBC in the Netherlands between 2011 and 2019 were identified from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients with HR+/HER2- BC were categorised according to risk profile, defined by nodal status, tumour size, and histological grade. High-risk HR+/HER2- BC was defined by either four or more positive lymph nodes or one to three positive lymph nodes with a tumour size of ≥5 cm or a histological grade 3 tumour. Overall survival (OS) and relative survival (RS) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier and Pohar-Perme method.

RESULTS

In this study of 87 455 patients with HR+/HER2- BC, 44 078 (50%) patients were diagnosed with low risk, 28 452 (33%) with intermediate risk, and 11 285 (13%) with high-risk HR+/HER2- BC. In 3640 (4%) patients, the risk profile could not be defined. Endocrine therapy and chemotherapy were used in 38% and 7% of low-risk, 90% and 47% of intermediate-risk, and 94% and 73% of high-risk patients, respectively. The 10-year OS and RS rates were 84.1% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 83.5% to 84.7%] and 98.7% (95% CI 97.3% to 99.4%) in low-risk, 75.1% (95% CI 74.2% to 76.0%) and 91.7% (95% CI 89.7% to 93.3%) in intermediate-risk, and 63.4% (95% CI 62.0% to 64.7%) and 72.3% (70.1% to 74.3%) in high-risk patients. The 10-year OS and RS rates of 12 689 patients with TNBC were 69.7% (95% CI 68.6% to 70.8%) and 79.1% (95% CI 77.0% to 80.9%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The poor prognosis of patients with high-risk HR+/HER2- BC highlights the need for a better acknowledgement of this subgroup and supports ongoing clinical trials aimed at optimising systemic therapy.

Postfracture survival in a population-based study of adults aged ≥66 yr: a call to action at hospital discharge

Postfracture survival rates provide prognostic information but are rarely reported along with other mortality outcomes in adults aged ≥50 yr. The timing of survival change following a fracture also needs to be further elucidated. This population-based, matched-cohort, retrospective database study examined 98 474 patients (73% women) aged ≥66 yr with an index fracture occurring at an osteoporotic site (hip, clinical vertebral, proximal non-hip non-vertebral [pNHNV], and distal non-hip non-vertebral [dNHNV]) from 2011 to 2015, who were matched (1:1) to nonfracture individuals based on sex, age, and comorbidities. All-cause 1- and 5-yr overall survival and relative survival ratios (RSRs) were assessed, and time trends in survival changes were characterized starting immediately after a fracture. In both sexes, overall survival was markedly decreased over 6 yr of follow-up after hip, vertebral, and pNHNV fractures, and as expected, worse survival rates were observed in older patients and males. The lowest 5-yr RSRs were observed after hip fractures in males (66-85 yr, 51.9%-63.9%; ≥86 yr, 34.5%), followed by vertebral fractures in males (66-85 yr, 53.2%-69.4%; ≥86 yr, 35.5%), and hip fractures in females (66-85 yr, 69.8%-79.0%; ≥86 yr, 52.8%). Although RSRs did not decrease as markedly after dNHNV fractures in younger patients, relatively low 5-yr RSRs were observed in females (75.9%) and males (69.5%) aged ≥86 yr. The greatest reduction in survival occurred within the initial month after hip, vertebral, and pNHNV fractures, indicating a high relative impact of short-term factors, with survival-reduction effects persisting over time. Therefore, the most critical period for implementing interventions aimed at improving post-fracture prognosis appears to be immediately after a fracture; however, considering the immediate need for introducing such interventions, primary fracture prevention is also crucial to prevent the occurrence of the initial fracture in high-risk patients.

Artificial intelligence in neuro-oncology: advances and challenges in brain tumor diagnosis, prognosis, and precision treatment

This review delves into the most recent advancements in applying artificial intelligence (AI) within neuro-oncology, specifically emphasizing work on gliomas, a class of brain tumors that represent a significant global health issue. AI has brought transformative innovations to brain tumor management, utilizing imaging, histopathological, and genomic tools for efficient detection, categorization, outcome prediction, and treatment planning. Assessing its influence across all facets of malignant brain tumor management- diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy- AI models outperform human evaluations in terms of accuracy and specificity. Their ability to discern molecular aspects from imaging may reduce reliance on invasive diagnostics and may accelerate the time to molecular diagnoses. The review covers AI techniques, from classical machine learning to deep learning, highlighting current applications and challenges. Promising directions for future research include multimodal data integration, generative AI, large medical language models, precise tumor delineation and characterization, and addressing racial and gender disparities. Adaptive personalized treatment strategies are also emphasized for optimizing clinical outcomes. Ethical, legal, and social implications are discussed, advocating for transparency and fairness in AI integration for neuro-oncology and providing a holistic understanding of its transformative impact on patient care.

Trends in ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancer incidence, mortality, and survival: A 15-year population-based analysis

OBJECTIVE

To characterize trends in ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality based on histology and site of origin.

METHODS

We obtained age-adjusted incidence and incidence-based mortality for patients with ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancer from 2000 to 2019 from the US SEER 17 database. Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 was used to characterize log-linear time trends.

RESULTS

The incidence and incidence-based mortality of all cancers trended down during the study period. The incidence of epithelial cancers decreased from 2004 to 2019 (AAPC -1.2%, p < 0.001), including that of high-grade (2006-2019: APC -1.2%, p < 0.05) and low-grade (2003-2019: APC -2.4%, p < 0.05) epithelial cancers. There was no change in incidence or incidence-based mortality for ovarian stromal and germ cell cancers.

CONCLUSION

There has been a decrease in the incidence and incidence-based mortality of ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancer, primarily due to reductions in advanced stage epithelial cancers originating in the ovary, fallopian tube, or peritoneum.

Increase in the Life Expectancy of Patients with Cancer in the United States

BACKGROUND

Cancer is becoming more of a chronic disease due to improvements in treatment and early detection for multiple cancer sites. To gain insight on increased life expectancy due to these improvements, we quantified trends in the loss in expectation of life (LEL) due to a cancer diagnosis for six cancer sites from 1975 through 2018.

METHODS

We focused on patients diagnosed with female breast cancer, chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), colon and rectum cancer, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), lung cancer, or melanoma between 1975 and 2018 from nine Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registries. Life expectancies for patients with cancer ages 50+ were modeled using flexible parametric survival models. LEL was calculated as the difference between general population life expectancy and life expectancy for patients with cancer.

RESULTS

Over 2 million patients were diagnosed with one of the six cancers between 1975 and 2018. Large increases in life expectancy were observed between 1990 and 2010 for female breast, DLBCL, and CML. Patients with colon and rectum cancer and melanoma had more gradual improvements in life expectancy. Lung cancer LEL only began decreasing after 2005. Increases in life expectancy corresponded with decreases in LEL for patients with cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The reported gains in life expectancy largely correspond to progress in the screening, management, and treatment of these six cancers since 1975.

IMPACT

LEL provides an important public health perspective on how improvements in treatment and early detection and their impacts on survival translate into changes in cancer patients' life expectancy.

Novel ensemble feature selection techniques applied to high-grade gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms for the prediction of survival

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Determining the most informative features for predicting the overall survival of patients diagnosed with high-grade gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms is crucial to improve individual treatment plans for patients, as well as the biological understanding of the disease. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the use of modern ensemble feature selection techniques for this purpose with respect to (a) quantitative performance measures such as predictive performance, (b) clinical interpretability, and (c) the effect of integrating prior expert knowledge.

METHODS

The Repeated Elastic Net Technique for Feature Selection (RENT) and the User-Guided Bayesian Framework for Feature Selection (UBayFS) are recently developed ensemble feature selectors investigated in this work. Both allow the user to identify informative features in datasets with low sample sizes and focus on model interpretability. While RENT is purely data-driven, UBayFS can integrate expert knowledge a priori in the feature selection process. In this work, we compare both feature selectors on a dataset comprising 63 patients and 110 features from multiple sources, including baseline patient characteristics, baseline blood values, tumor histology, imaging, and treatment information.

RESULTS

Our experiments involve data-driven and expert-driven setups, as well as combinations of both. In a five-fold cross-validated experiment without expert knowledge, our results demonstrate that both feature selectors allow accurate predictions: A reduction from 110 to approximately 20 features (around 82%) delivers near-optimal predictive performances with minor variations according to the choice of the feature selector, the predictive model, and the fold. Thereafter, we use findings from clinical literature as a source of expert knowledge. In addition, expert knowledge has a stabilizing effect on the feature set (an increase in stability of approximately 40%), while the impact on predictive performance is limited.

CONCLUSIONS

The features WHO Performance Status, Albumin, Platelets, Ki-67, Tumor Morphology, Total MTV, Total TLG, and SUVmax are the most stable and predictive features in our study. Overall, this study demonstrated the practical value of feature selection in medical applications not only to improve quantitative performance but also to deliver potentially new insights to experts.

First-line real-world treatment patterns and survival outcomes in women younger or older than 40 years with metastatic breast cancer in the real-life multicenter French ESME cohort

AIM

To describe first-line treatment patterns, overall survival (OS) and real-world progression-free survival (rwPFS) in young women (<40) with metastatic breast cancer (mBC), as compared to women aged 40-69.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data on adult women diagnosed with mBC (2008-2017) were extracted from the ESME mBC database (NCT03275311) which includes consecutive patients starting first-line metastatic treatment in one of the 18 French Comprehensive cancer centers. We reported first-line therapeutic strategy and prognostic factors of OS and rwPFS for women aged < 40 and 40-69.

RESULTS

In total, 14,897 mBC women were included (1512 aged <40). HR+ /HER2- mBC was the most frequent subtype. First-line treatment differed between young patients and older ones for HR+ /HER2- and Triple Negative (TN) mBC. Median OS for women aged < 40 and 40-69, respectively, was 46.9 and 46.2 months for HR+ /HER2- mBC; 13.5 and 15.2 for TN mBC; and, 60.7 and 55.1 for HER2 + mBC. Median rwPFS under first line treatment was 11.6 and 11.9 months for HR+ /HER2- in women aged < 40 and 40-69, respectively; 5.5 and 5.9 for TN, and, 13.3 and 12.9 for HER2 + . Factors associated with shorter OS and rwPFS were similar for both women aged < 40 and 40-69 and included ≥ 3 metastatic sites, visceral metastases, and longer MFI, with time-varying effects observed for several prognostic factors.

CONCLUSION

Young women presented more frequently with TN and HER2 + subtypes and aggressive mBC than women aged 40-69 did. Prognostic factors of OS and rwPFS were quite similar between age groups and mBC subtypes.

Lung cancer survival and sex-specific patterns in Portugal: A population-based analysis

INTRODUCTION

In Portugal, lung cancer (LC) is the first cause of cancer-related death and of death and disability combined. This study aims to analyze the overall survival (OS) and relative survival (RS) of patients diagnosed with LC in 2009-2011 by socio-demographic and tumor characteristics, and analyze sex-specific patterns.

METHODS

We estimated 5-year OS using the Kaplan-Meier method and 5-year net survival through the RS framework. Cox regression modeling was used to determine the hazard ratio (HR) of death associated with each independent variable.

FINDINGS

For the 11,523 cases analyzed, median 5-year OS was 264 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 254.8-273.2), the cumulative OS was 13.6% and RS was 15.1%. Males had a lower median survival (237 days; 95% CI: 228.2-245.7) compared to females (416 days; 95% CI: 384.4-447.6) (p < 0.0001) and lower 5-year RS proportions (12.1% vs. 24.9%). RS progressively decreased with age (41.7% for age-group <40 to 7.2% for ≥80) and stage (66.6% for stage I to 2.4% for stage IV). As predictors of decreased survival, we identified male gender, increasing age >50, histologic types (squamous cell carcinoma, non-small cell lung cancer not otherwise specified, other unspecified and small cell lung cancer), and increasing stage. Compared to women, the risk of death in men was 37.7% higher (HR = 1.386; 95% CI: 1.295-1.484).

CONCLUSIONS

The differences between OS and RS were small, reflecting the high lethality of LC. Male gender and older age are factors related to poor prognosis. Histology also plays a role in survival prognosis and varies with gender, but the factor related to the worst survival is stage. Although the study reflects data from a decade ago, and major changes occurred in diagnosis, staging and treatment, particularly for advanced disease, as LC mortality is strongly correlated with late stage diagnosis, all efforts should be made to secure early diagnosis and improve survival prospects.

Prediction of Risk of Metastatic Recurrence for Female Breast Cancer Patients in the Presence of Competing Causes of Death

BACKGROUND

To estimate risk of recurrence for women diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer considering the risks of other causes mortality.

METHODS

We extend a method based on the diagnosis-metastasis-death pathway to include risks of other causes mortality. We estimate three probabilities as cumulative incidence of: (i) being alive and recurrence-free, (ii) death for other causes before a recurrence, and (iii) recurrence. We apply the method to female breast cancer relative survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program registries (2000-2018) data.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of recurrence shows a higher increase with more advanced cancer stage and is less influenced by age at diagnosis. At 5 years from diagnosis, the cumulative incidence of recurrence is less than 3% for those diagnosed with stage I, 10% to 13% for those diagnosed with stage II, and 37% to 47% for those diagnosed with stage III breast cancer. The estimates of recurrence considering versus ignoring the risks of dying from other causes were generally consistent, except for older women with more advanced stage, and longer time since diagnosis. In these groups, the net probability of recurrence, excluding the risks of dying from other causes, were overestimated.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with cancer who are older or long-term survivors, it is important to include the risks of other cause mortality as the crude cumulative incidence of recurrence is a more appropriate measure.

IMPACT

These estimates are important in clinical decision making, as higher competing mortality may preclude the benefits of aggressive treatments.

Prostate cancer outcomes following whole-gland and focal high-intensity focused ultrasound

OBJECTIVE

To report the 5-year failure-free survival (FFS) following high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This observational cohort study used linked National Cancer Registry data, radiotherapy data, administrative hospital data and mortality records of 1381 men treated with HIFU for clinically localised prostate cancer in England. The primary outcome, FFS, was defined as freedom from local salvage treatment and cancer-specific mortality. Secondary outcomes were freedom from repeat HIFU, prostate cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Cox regression was used to determine whether baseline characteristics, including age, treatment year, T stage and International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Grade Group were associated with FFS.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up was 37 (20-62) months. The median (IQR) age was 65 (59-70) years and 81% had an ISUP Grade Group of 1-2. The FFS was 96.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 95.4%-97.4%) at 1 year, 86.0% (95% CI 83.7%-87.9%) at 3 years and 77.5% (95% CI 74.4%-80.3%) at 5 years. The 5-year FFS for ISUP Grade Groups 1-5 was 82.9%, 76.6%, 72.2%, 52.3% and 30.8%, respectively (P < 0.001). Freedom from repeat HIFU was 79.1% (95% CI 75.7%-82.1%), CSS was 98.8% (95% CI 97.7%-99.4%) and OS was 95.9% (95% CI 94.2%-97.1%) at 5 years.

CONCLUSION

Four in five men were free from local salvage treatment at 5 years but treatment failure varied significantly according to ISUP Grade Group. Patients should be appropriately informed with respect to salvage radical treatment following HIFU.

Individual-level home values and cancer mortality in a statewide registry

BACKGROUND

Prior work assessing disparities in cancer outcomes has relied on regional socioeconomic metrics. These metrics average data across many individuals, resulting in a loss of granularity and confounding with other regional factors.

METHODS

Using patients' addresses at the time of diagnosis from the Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System, we retrieved individual home price estimates from an online real estate marketplace. This individual-level estimate was compared with the Area Deprivation Index (ADI) at the census block group level. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the relationship between home price estimates and all-cause and cancer-specific mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 667 277 patients in Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System were linked to individual home prices across 16 cancers. Increasing home prices, adjusted for age, stage at diagnosis, and ADI, were associated with a decrease in the hazard of all-cause and cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.92 to 0.93, and HR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.94 to 0.95, respectively). Following a cancer diagnosis, individuals with home prices 2 standard deviations above the mean had an estimated 10-year survival probability (7.8%, 95% CI = 7.2% to 8.3%) higher than those with home prices 2 standard deviations below the mean. The association between home price and mortality was substantially more prominent for patients living in less deprived census block groups (Pinteraction < .001) than for those living in more deprived census block groups.

CONCLUSION

Higher individual home prices were associated with improved all-cause and cancer-specific mortality, even after accounting for regional measures of deprivation.

Exploring the role of natural bioactive molecules in genitourinary cancers: how far has research progressed?

The primary approaches to treat cancerous diseases include drug treatment, surgical procedures, biotherapy, and radiation therapy. Chemotherapy has been the primary treatment for cancer for a long time, but its main drawback is that it kills cancerous cells along with healthy ones, leading to deadly adverse health effects. However, genitourinary cancer has become a concern in recent years as it is more common in middle-aged people. So, researchers are trying to find possible therapeutic options from natural small molecules due to the many drawbacks associated with chemotherapy and other radiation-based therapies. Plenty of research was conducted regarding genitourinary cancer to determine the promising role of natural small molecules. So, this review focused on natural small molecules along with their potential therapeutic targets in the case of genitourinary cancers such as prostate cancer, renal cancer, bladder cancer, testicular cancer, and so on. Also, this review states some ongoing or completed clinical evidence in this regard.

Impact of Breast Cancer Screening on 10-Year Net Survival in Canadian Women Age 40-49 Years

PURPOSE

In Canada, some provincial/territorial mammography screening programs include women age 40-49 years, whereas others do not. This study examines the impact of this dichotomy on the 10-year breast cancer (BC) net survival (NS) among women age 40-49 years and 50-59 years at diagnosis.

METHODS

Using the Canadian Cancer Registry data record linked to death information, we evaluated the cohort of Canadian women age 40-49 years and 50-59 years diagnosed with BC from 2002 to 2007. We compared 10-year NS estimates in the jurisdictions with organized screening programs that included women age 40-49 years, designated as screeners (Northwest Territories, British Columbia, Alberta, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island), with comparator programs that did not (Yukon, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador).

RESULTS

BC was the primary cause of 10-year mortality in women age 40-49 years diagnosed with BC (90.7% of deaths). Among these women, the 10-year NS for screeners (84.8%; 95% CI, 83.8 to 85.8) was 1.9 percentage points (pp) higher than that for comparators (82.9%; 95% CI, 82.3 to 83.5; P = .001). The difference in favor of screeners was significant among women age 45-49 years (2.6 pp; P = .001) but not among women age 40-44 years (0.9 pp; P = .328). Similarly, the incidence-based BC mortality rate was significantly lower in screener jurisdictions among women age 40-49 years and 45-49 years, but not for 40-44 years. Provincial/territorial NS increased significantly with higher mammography screening participation (P = .003). The BC incidence rate was virtually identical in screener and comparator jurisdictions among women age 40-49 years (P = .976) but was significantly higher for comparators among women age 50-59 years (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Screening programs that included women in their 40s were associated with a significantly higher BC 10-year NS in women age 40-49 years, but not an increased rate of BC diagnosis. These results may inform screening guidelines for women age 40-49 years.

The reliability and validity of lung cancer and melanoma clinical quality survival measures

OBJECTIVE

To develop a risk adjustment approach and test reliability and validity for oncology survival measures.

DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING

We used the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data from 2010 to 2013, with mortality data through 2015.

STUDY DESIGN

We developed 2-year risk-standardized survival rates (RSSR) for melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and small cell lung cancer (SCLC). Patients were attributed to group practices based on the plurality of visits. We identified the risk-adjustment variables via bootstrap and calculated the RSSRs. Reliability was tested via three approaches: (1) signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) reliability, (2) split-half, and (3) test-retest using bootstrap. We tested known group validity by stage at diagnosis using Cohen's d.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We selected all patients enrolled in Medicare and linked to SEER during the measurement period with an incident first primary diagnosis of stage I-IV melanoma, NSCLC, or SCLC. We excluded patients with missing data on month and/or stage of diagnosis.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Results are based on patients with melanoma (n = 4344); NSCLC (n = 16,080); and SCLC (n = 2807) diagnosed between 2012 and 2013. The median (interquartile range) for the RSSRs at the group practice-level were 0.89 (0.83-0.87) for melanoma, 0.37 (0.30-0.43) for NSCLC, and 0.19 (0.11-0.25) for SCLC. C-statistics for the models ranged from 0.725 to 0.825. The reliability varied by approach with median SNR 0.20, 0.25, and 0.13; median test-retest 0.59, 0.57, and 0.56; median split-half reliability 0.21, 0.29, and 0.29 for melanoma, NSCLC, and SCLC, respectively. Cohen's d for stage I-IIIa and IIIb+ was 1.27, 0.86, 0.60 for melanoma, NSCLC, and SCLC, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that these cancer survival measures demonstrated adequate test-retest reliability and expected findings for the known-group validity analysis. If data limitations and feasibility challenges can be addressed, implementation of these quality measures may provide a survival metric used for oncology quality improvement efforts.

The fraction of life years lost after diagnosis (FLYLAD): a person-centred measure of cancer burden

BACKGROUND

Cancer control initiatives are informed by quantifying the capacity to reduce cancer burden through effective interventions. Burden measures using health administrative data are a sustainable way to support monitoring and evaluating of outcomes among patients and populations. The Fraction of Life Years Lost After Diagnosis (FLYLAD) is one such burden measure. We use data on Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal South Australians from 1990 to 2010 to show how FLYLAD quantifies disparities in cancer burden: between populations; between sub-population cohorts where stage at diagnosis is available; and when follow-up is constrained to 24-months after diagnosis.

METHOD

FLYLADcancer is the fraction of years of life expectancy lost due to cancer (YLLcancer) to life expectancy years at risk at time of cancer diagnosis (LYAR) for each person. The Global Burden of Disease standard life table provides referent life expectancies. FLYLADcancer was estimated for the population of cancer cases diagnosed in South Australia from 1990 to 2010. Cancer stage at diagnosis was also available for cancers diagnosed in Aboriginal people and a cohort of non-Aboriginal people matched by sex, year of birth, primary cancer site and year of diagnosis.

RESULTS

Cancers diagnoses (N = 144,891) included 777 among Aboriginal people. Cancer burden described by FLYLADcancer was higher among Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal (0.55, 95% CIs 0.52-0.59 versus 0.39, 95% CIs 0.39-0.40). Diagnoses at younger ages among Aboriginal people, 7 year higher LYAR (31.0, 95% CIs 30.0-32.0 versus 24.1, 95% CIs 24.1-24.2) and higher premature cancer mortality (YLLcancer = 16.3, 95% CIs 15.1-17.5 versus YLLcancer = 8.2, 95% CIs 8.2-8.3) influenced this. Disparities in cancer burden between the matched Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal cohorts manifested 24-months after diagnosis with FLYLADcancer 0.44, 95% CIs 0.40-0.47 and 0.28, 95% CIs 0.25-0.31 respectively.

CONCLUSION

FLYLAD described disproportionately higher cancer burden among Aboriginal people in comparisons involving: all people diagnosed with cancer; the matched cohorts; and, within groups diagnosed with same staged disease. The extent of disparities were evident 24-months after diagnosis. This is evidence of Aboriginal peoples' substantial capacity to benefit from cancer control initiatives, particularly those leading to earlier detection and treatment of cancers. FLYLAD's use of readily available, person-level administrative records can help evaluate health care initiatives addressing this need.

Addressing cancer care inequities in sub-Saharan Africa: current challenges and proposed solutions

INTRODUCTION

Cancer is a significant public health challenge globally, with nearly 2000 lives lost daily in Africa alone. Without adequate measures, mortality rates are likely to increase. The major challenge for cancer care in Africa is equity and prioritization, as cancer is not receiving adequate attention from policy-makers and strategic stakeholders in the healthcare space. This neglect is affecting the three primary tiers of cancer care: prevention, diagnosis, and treatment/management. To promote cancer care equity, addressing issues of equity and prioritization is crucial to ensure that everyone has an equal chance at cancer prevention, early detection, and appropriate care and follow-up treatment.

METHODOLOGY

Using available literature, we provide an overview of the current state of cancer care in Africa and recommendations to close the gap.

RESULTS

We highlight several factors that contribute to cancer care inequity in Africa, including inadequate funding for cancer research, poor cancer education or awareness, inadequate screening or diagnostic facilities, lack of a well-organized and effective cancer registry system and access to care, shortage of specialized medical staff, high costs for screening, vaccination, and treatment, lack of technical capacity, poor vaccination response, and/or late presentation of patients for cancer screening. We also provide recommendations to address some of these obstacles to achieving cancer care equity. Our recommendations are divided into national-level initiatives and capacity-based initiatives, including cancer health promotion and awareness by healthcare professionals during every hospital visit, encouraging screening and vaccine uptake, ensuring operational regional and national cancer registries, improving healthcare budgeting for staff, equipment, and facilities, building expertise through specialty training, funding for cancer research, providing insurance coverage for cancer care, and implementing mobile health technology for telemedicine diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Addressing challenges to cancer equity holistically would improve the likelihood of longer survival for cancer patients, lower the risk factors for groups that are already at risk, and ensure equitable access to cancer care on the continent. This study identifies the existing stance that African nations have on equity in cancer care, outlines the current constraints, and provides suggestions that could make the biggest difference in attaining equity in cancer care.

Prediction of Five-Year Survival Rate for Rectal Cancer Using Markov Models of Convolutional Features of RhoB Expression on Tissue Microarray

The ability to predict survival in cancer is clinically important because the finding can help patients and physicians make optimal treatment decisions. Artificial intelligence in the context of deep learning has been increasingly realized by the informatics-oriented medical community as a powerful machine-learning technology for cancer research, diagnosis, prediction, and treatment. This paper presents the combination of deep learning, data coding, and probabilistic modeling for predicting five-year survival in a cohort of patients with rectal cancer using images of RhoB expression on biopsies. Using about one-third of the patients' data for testing, the proposed approach achieved 90% prediction accuracy, which is much higher than the direct use of the best pretrained convolutional neural network (70%) and the best coupling of a pretrained model and support vector machines (70%).

Adherence to safe food-handling practices and dietary patterns in cancer survivors

BACKGROUND

In Chile there is a high risk profile of developing cancer which is associated, among other factors, to eating behaviors and, in this line, it is essential for cancer survivors to have access to nutritional advice that includes aproppriate food safety practices. The objective of this study is to characterize the level of adherence of cancer survivors to safe food-handling practices and dietary patterns in a Chilean National Health Survey.

METHODS

Secondary analysis study, conducted using the National Health Survey 2016-2017 database. The association between adherence to dietary patterns and safe food-handling practices was conducted by means of a logistic regression analisys, considering a p value of <0.05 as statistically significant.

RESULTS

2765 participants, females, 5.8% were cancer survivors who adhered twice more to the safe food-handling practice "wash your hands with soap and water before preparing food and before eating", and 1.5 times more to the practice "keep raw meat separate from other foods when preparing food or cooking". In both groups, it was observed a low adherence to achieve the recommendations on healthy weight, physical activity, fruits and vegetables consumption, and alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages consumption of the WCRF/AICR.

CONCLUSIONS

Partial adherence to the safe food-handling recommendations and low adherence to the WCRF/AICR recommendations were observed among cancer survivors and subjects without cancer.

Trends in treatment patterns and survival outcomes in pancreatic cancer: A nationwide population-based study in Korea

BACKGROUND

The treatment of pancreatic cancer has evolved; however, real-world data on treatment trends remain scarce. This study investigated treatment patterns for pancreatic cancer and patient survival using a nationwide population-based study in Korea.

METHODS

Using the National Health Insurance database, data from 78,920 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in Korea between 2006 and 2019 were extracted. Treatment patterns and survival by age group and year of diagnosis were examined.

RESULTS

Primary treatment was delivered as follows: 16,562 patients (21.0%) underwent surgery, 20,998 patients (26.6%) received chemotherapy, 1332 patients (1.7%) received chemoradiotherapy, and 40,040 patients (50.7%) received supportive care only. The proportion of patients undergoing surgery or chemotherapy increased gradually in all age groups over time. The commonly used anti-cancer drugs have changed from gemcitabine±erlotinib to gemcitabine+nab-paclitaxel and FOLFIRINOX. Survival improved mainly in patients who underwent surgery or chemotherapy. Median overall survival for all patients improved from 5.5 months in 2006-2008 to 9.8 months in 2018-2019, with greater improvement observed in younger age groups: 8.8-18.8 months, age ≤59 years, 6.8-14.6 months, age 60-69 years, 4.2-8.3 months, age 70-79 years and 2.4-3.4 months, age ≥80 years (all p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in the rates of surgery and chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer was observed. Survival rates for pancreatic cancer have generally improved over the past decade and are greater in patients undergoing surgery or chemotherapy and in younger age groups.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Survival Among People With Second Primary Cancer in the US

Importance

Comprehensive data for racial and ethnic disparities after second primary cancers (SPCs) are lacking despite the growing burden of SPCs.

Objective

To quantify racial and ethnic disparities in survival among persons with SPCs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based, retrospective cohort study used data from 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries in the US for persons diagnosed with the most common SPCs at age 20 years or older from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2013 (with follow-up through December 31, 2018). Data were analyzed between January and April 2023.

Exposure

Race and ethnicity (Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic White).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were 5-year relative survival and cause-specific survival. Cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for death from cancer or cardiovascular disease (CVD) in each racial and ethnic minority population compared with the White population overall and stratified by SPC type, with adjustment for sex, year and age at SPC diagnosis, and prior cancer type and stage (baseline model) and additionally for county attributes (household income, urbanicity), SPC characteristics (stage, subtype), and treatment.

Results

Among 230 370 persons with SPCs (58.4% male), 4.5% were Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.6% were Black, 6.4% were Hispanic, and 79.5% were White. A total of 109 757 cancer-related deaths (47.6%) and 18 283 CVD-related deaths (7.9%) occurred during a median follow-up of 54 months (IQR, 12-93 months). In baseline models, compared with the White population, the risk of cancer-related death overall was higher in the Black (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.18-1.23) and Hispanic (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.07-1.13) populations but lower in the Asian or Pacific Islander population (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.96). When stratified by 13 SPC types, the risk of cancer-related death was higher for 10 SPCs in the Black population, with the highest HR for uterine cancer (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.63-2.15), and for 7 SPCs in the Hispanic population, most notably for melanoma (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.21-1.76). For CVD-related death, the overall HR was higher in the Black population (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.34-1.49), with elevated risks evident for 11 SPCs, but lower in the Asian or Pacific Islander (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81) and Hispanic (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.96) populations than in the White population. After further adjustments for county attributes and SPC characteristics and treatment, HRs were reduced for cancer-related death and for CVD-related death and associations in the same direction remained.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of SPC survivors, the Black population had the highest risk of both death from cancer and death from CVD, and the Hispanic population had a higher risk of death from cancer than the White population. Attenuations in HRs after adjustment for potentially modifiable factors highlight opportunities to reduce survival disparities among persons with multiple primary cancers.

Complete prevalence and indicators of cancer cure: enhanced methods and validation in Italian population-based cancer registries

Objectives

To describe the procedures to derive complete prevalence and several indicators of cancer cure from population-based cancer registries.

Materials and methods

Cancer registry data (47% of the Italian population) were used to calculate limited duration prevalence for 62 cancer types by sex and registry. The incidence and survival models, needed to calculate the completeness index (R) and complete prevalence, were evaluated by likelihood ratio tests and by visual comparison. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect on the complete prevalence of using different R indexes. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival (NS); life expectancy of fatal (LEF) cases; cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC); cure prevalence, prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer; and already cured patients, those living longer than TTC at a specific point in time. CF was also compared with long-term NS since, for patients diagnosed after a certain age, CF (representing asymptotical values of NS) is reached far beyond the patient's life expectancy.

Results

For the most frequent cancer types, the Weibull survival model stratified by sex and age showed a very good fit with observed survival. For men diagnosed with any cancer type at age 65-74 years, CF was 41%, while the NS was 49% until age 100 and 50% until age 90. In women, similar differences emerged for patients with any cancer type or with breast cancer. Among patients alive in 2018 with colorectal cancer at age 55-64 years, 48% were already cured (had reached their specific TTC), while the cure prevalence (lifelong probability to be cured from cancer) was 89%. Cure prevalence became 97.5% (2.5% will die because of their neoplasm) for patients alive >5 years after diagnosis.

Conclusions

This study represents an addition to the current knowledge on the topic providing a detailed description of available indicators of prevalence and cancer cure, highlighting the links among them, and illustrating their interpretation. Indicators may be relevant for patients and clinical practice; they are unambiguously defined, measurable, and reproducible in different countries where population-based cancer registries are active.

What is relative survival and what is its role in haematology?

In many haematological diseases, the survival probability is the key outcome. However, when the population of patients is rather old and the follow-up long, a significant proportion of deaths cannot be attributed to the studied disease. This lessens the importance of common survival analysis measures like overall survival and shows the need for other outcome measures requiring more complex methodology. When disease-specific information is of interest but the cause of death is not available in the data, relative survival methodology becomes crucial. The idea of relative survival is to merge the observed data set with the mortality data in the general population and thus allow for an indirect estimation of the burden of the disease. In this work, an overview of different measures that can be of interest in the field of haematology is given. We introduce the crude mortality that reports the probability of dying due to the disease of interest; the net survival that focuses on excess hazard alone and presents the key measure in comparing the disease burden of patients from populations with different general population mortality; and the relative survival ratio which gives a simple comparison of the patients' and the general population survival. We explain the properties of each measure, and some brief notes are given on estimation. Furthermore, we describe how association with covariates can be studied. All the methods and their estimators are illustrated on a sub-cohort of older patients who received a first allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for myelodysplastic syndromes or secondary acute myeloid leukemia, to show how different methods can provide different insights into the data.

The Lack of Standardized Outcomes for Surgical Salvage of HPV-Positive Recurrent Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Systematic Scoping Review

Although HPV status is known to provide an improved prognosis in initial treatments of HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), it is unclear how it affects patients who receive salvage surgery (SS), which has historically poor survival rates. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of SS for patients with locoregional recurrence (LRR) of HPV-positive OPSCC and its impact survival rates. We conducted a scoping review of literature through October 2022 and included 995 individuals. Survival endpoints, such as overall survival (OS), Kaplan-Meier curves, and median post-recurrence survival, were analyzed in addition to demographics. Of all studies, 18.8% (6/32) reported any survival data for SS patients, with the most prevalent reporting 2- and 5-year OS in two studies. Median post-recurrence survival was not reported for SS. These findings reveal the limited and unpredictable reporting of survival-specific data on SS for HPV-positive OPSCC. With limited survival assessment, it is difficult to assess the potential advantages and disadvantages of this therapy to guide clinical decision-making.

Long-term survival trends in solid cancers in the Nordic countries marking timing of improvements

Survival studies are an important indicator of the success of cancer control. We analyzed the 5-year relative survival in 23 solid cancers in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden over a 50-year period (1970-2019) at the NORDCAN database accessed from the International Agency for Research on Cancer website. We plotted survival curves in 5-year periods and showed 5-year periodic survival. The survival results were summarized in four groups: (1) cancers with historically good survival (>50% in 1970-1974) which include melanoma and breast, endometrial and thyroid cancers; (2) cancers which constantly improved survival at least 20% units over the 50 year period, including cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, kidney, brain and ovary; (3) cancer with increase in survival >20% units with changes taking place in a narrow time window, including oral, oropharyngeal, testicular and prostate cancers; (4) the remaining cancers with <20% unit improvement in survival including lung, esophageal, liver, pancreatic, bladder, soft tissue, penile, cervical and vulvar cancers. For cancers in groups 1 and 2, the constant development implied multiple improvements in therapy, diagnosis and patient care. Cancers in group 3 included testicular cancers with known therapeutic improvements but for the others large incidence changes probably implied that cancer stage (prostate) or etiology (oropharynx) changed into a more tractable form. Group 4 cancers included those with dismal survival 50 years ago but a clear tendency upwards. In 17 cancers 5-year survival reached between 50% and 100% while in only six cancers it remained at below 50%.

Shifting incidence and survival of epithelial ovarian cancer (1995-2014): A SurvMark-2 study

The aim of the study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of incidence and survival trends of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) by histological subtype across seven high income countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom). Data on invasive EOC diagnosed in women aged 15 to 99 years during 1995 to 2014 were obtained from 20 cancer registries. Age standardized incidence rates and average annual percentage change were calculated by subtype for all ages and age groups (15-64 and 65-99 years). Net survival (NS) was estimated by subtype, age group and 5-year period using Pohar-Perme estimator. Our findings showed marked increase in serous carcinoma incidence was observed between 1995 and 2014 among women aged 65 to 99 years with average annual increase ranging between 2.2% and 5.8%. We documented a marked decrease in the incidence of adenocarcinoma "not otherwise specified" with estimates ranging between 4.4% and 7.4% in women aged 15 to 64 years and between 2.0% and 3.7% among the older age group. Improved survival, combining all EOC subtypes, was observed for all ages combined over the 20-year study period in all countries with 5-year NS absolute percent change ranging between 5.0 in Canada and 12.6 in Denmark. Several factors such as changes in guidelines and advancement in diagnostic tools may potentially influence the observed shift in histological subtypes and temporal trends. Progress in clinical management and treatment over the past decades potentially plays a role in the observed improvements in EOC survival.

[Cancer registries in Germany: what does the future hold for urology?]

Cancer registries are defined as systematically collected information in the form of a database on tumour diseases. They can provide information about the quality of oncological care or progress in the treatment of individual cancers over time. Since 1995, all German federal states have been required by law to establish and maintain a cancer registry. The Center for Cancer Registry Data (ZfKD) at Robert Koch Institute has collected this nationwide data since 2009 and compiled it into an annually audited dataset available for research purposes. By virtue of the Cancer Early Detection and Registry Act (KFRG), which was passed in 2013, the cancer registries were given a new perspective. Since then, they have made a central contribution to the quality assurance of oncological care. The cancer registries are mainly financed by the health insurance funds. An upcoming expansion of the dataset including clinical variables and earlier provision by the ZfKD starting next year offers new opportunities for the scientific use of cancer registry data. In particular, the course of the disease will now be mapped in considerable detail. Apart from the cancer registries, there are not many useful supplemental datasets in Germany for the assessment of the nationwide healthcare situation and treatment reality on a national level. The DRG database (case-based hospital statistics) of the Federal Statistics Office records all billing data of all German hospitals with few exceptions. Another interesting supplement to the cancer registry data are the datasets of the structured quality reports, which have been mandatory for hospitals since 2003. In the future, the scientific role of cancer registries is to be further enhanced by the Act on the Pooling of Cancer Registry Data, which was passed in 2021.

Choice of Survival Metric and Its Impacts on Cancer Survival Estimates for American Indian and Alaska Native People

BACKGROUND

Different survival metrics have different applicability to clinical practice and research. We evaluated how choice of survival metric influences assessment of cancer survival among American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) people relative to non-Hispanic Whites (NHW). A secondary objective was to present variations in survival among AIAN people by age, sex, stage, and Indian Health Service (IHS) region.

METHODS

Five-year survival was calculated using the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries Cancer in North America dataset. We calculated survival among AIAN people, compared with NHW using four approaches: (i) observed (crude) survival, (ii) cause-specific survival, (iii) relative survival using age- and sex-adjusted lifetables, and (iv) relative survival using lifetables additionally adjusted for race, geography, and socioeconomic status. For AIAN people, we evaluated how survival varied by age, stage at diagnosis, and IHS region.

RESULTS

Observed survival methods produced the lowest estimates, and-excepting prostate cancer-cause-specific methods produced the highest survival estimates. Survival was lower among AIAN people than NHW for all methods. Among AIAN people, survival was higher among those 20-64 years, females, and tumors diagnosed at local stage. Survival varied by IHS region and cancer sites.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support the assertion that using the same methodology to compare survival estimates between racial and ethnic groups is of paramount importance, but that the choice of metric requires careful consideration of study objectives.

IMPACT

These findings have the potential to impact choice of survival metric to explore disparities among AIAN people.

Long-term excess mortality and net survival among elderly diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients after front-line R-CHOP treatment

In the era of immunochemotherapy, data on the long-term prognosis of elderly patients diagnosed with a diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) are scarce. In this population and on the longer term, other-cause mortality is an important competing risk that needs to be accounted for. Using clinical trial data and relative survival approaches, we estimated the 10-year net survival (NS) and we described the excess mortality hazard (EMH) due (directly or indirectly) to the DLBCL, over time and according to main prognosis factors using flexible regression modelling. The 10-year NS was 65% [59; 71]. Using the flexible modelling, we showed that the EMH decreases steeply after diagnosis. The variables 'performance status', 'number of extra-nodal sites' and the serum 'lactate dehydrogenase' were strongly associated with the EMH, even after adjustment on other important variables. EMH is very close to zero at 10 years for the whole population, so DLBCL patients do not experience an increased mortality compared to the general population in the long term. The number of extra-nodal sites was an important prognostic factor shortly after diagnosis, suggesting that it is correlated with an important but unmeasured prognostic factor that would lead to this selection effect over time.

Clinical Experience of Intra-tumoral Central-Dose Escalated Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy for Lymph Node Metastases in Patients With Advanced Cancer

Background Lymph node metastases (LN mets) are radioresistant, and high-dose irradiation is preferred for their control. The volumetric-modulated arc therapy technique makes it possible to perform intra-tumoral dose escalation without increasing the total prescribed dose of fractionated irradiation. We report its clinical experiences with intra-tumoral central-dose escalated volumetric-modulated arc therapy (ICE-VMAT) for LN mets. Materials and methods This study retrospectively evaluated 31 patients with 50 LN mets from stage III and IV advanced cancers who received ICE-VMAT. The total described dose was 50 Gy, and the median intra-tumoral central dose was 66 Gy (range, 54-79 Gy). Results The median follow-up period was 21 months. The two-year local control and overall survival (OS) rates were 95% and 56%, whereas univariate analysis revealed that the KPS ≥ 80 group had a significantly better OS compared to the KPS < 80 group. Conclusion ICE-VMAT was effective for LN mets. Patients with good KPS may benefit from therapeutic intervention with ICE-VMAT, even if they have multiple distant LN mets.

In comparison with polypectomy, colorectal resection is associated with improved survival for patients diagnosed with malignant polyps

AIM

Patients diagnosed with a malignant polyp generally have favourable overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). However, it is unclear how choice in management for malignant polyps may affect survival.

METHODS

Data from the Queensland Oncology Repository was analysed to derive a population wide assessment of the impact of management strategy on OS and CSS for patients diagnosed with malignant polyps. Log-rank testing, Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression models were performed. Patients were matched using propensity score and Mahalanobis distance matching.

RESULTS

A total of 1,646 patients were included with 240 deaths and 52 colorectal cancer related deaths until censor date. Following propensity score and Mahalanobis distance matching of patients undergoing polypectomy alone versus colorectal resection, there was no significant difference in the age groups (<60 years of age or ≥60 years of age), American Society of Anesthesiology score, comorbidity count or Association of ColoProctology of Great Britain and Ireland risk category. However, of note Log-rank testing demonstrated a significant difference in OS (p < 0.001) and CSS (p = 0.0061) between management strategies. Multivariable Cox-regression models in matched and un-matched patient cohorts demonstrated significantly lower hazards of death for OS with resection (p < 0.001). However, CSS was no longer significantly different between management groups in multivariable Cox-regression analysis (p = 0.073).

CONCLUSION

Patients who underwent colorectal resection had significantly improved OS and CSS compared with polypectomy alone. Improved OS was furthermore seen on multivariable analysis, and in matched cohorts. Future research should investigate why this unexpected finding may be the case and whether updates to guidelines should be considered.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Survival

BACKGROUND

Young adults diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) comprise a growing, yet understudied, patient population. We estimated 5-year relative survival of early-onset CRC and examined disparities in survival by race-ethnicity in a population-based sample.

METHODS

We used the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of cancer registries to identify patients diagnosed with early-onset CRC (20-49 years of age) between January 1, 1992, and December 31, 2013. For each racial-ethnic group, we estimated 5-year relative survival, overall and by sex, tumor site, and stage at diagnosis. To illustrate temporal trends, we compared 5-year relative survival in 1992-2002 vs 2003-2013. We also used Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine the association of race-ethnicity and all-cause mortality, adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, county type (urban vs rural), county-level median household income, tumor site, and stage at diagnosis.

RESULTS

We identified 33,777 patients diagnosed with early-onset CRC (58.5% White, 14.0% Black, 13.0% Asian, 14.5% Hispanic). Five-year relative survival ranged from 57.6% (Black patients) to 69.1% (White patients). Relative survival improved from 1992-2002 to 2003-2013 for White patients only; there was no improvement for Black, Asian, or Hispanic patients. This pattern was similar by sex, tumor site, and stage at diagnosis. In adjusted analysis, Black (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36-1.49), Asian (aHR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12), and Hispanic (aHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.21) race-ethnicity were associated with all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

Our study adds to the well-documented disparities in CRC in older adults by demonstrating persistent racial-ethnic disparities in relative survival and all-cause mortality in patients with early-onset CRC.

Survival after Ivor Lewis versus McKeown esophagectomy for cancer: propensity score matched analysis

It is unknown whether Ivor Lewis (IL) or McKeown (McK) esophagectomy is preferred in patients with potentially curable esophageal or gastro-esophageal junction (GEJ) cancer. Patients with mid- and distal esophageal and GEJ cancer without distant metastases who underwent IL or McK esophagectomy in the Netherlands between 2015 and 2017, were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients were propensity score matched for sex, age, American Society of Anesthesiologist classification, comorbidity, tumor type, tumor location, clinical stage, neoadjuvant treatment and year of diagnosis. The primary outcome was a 3-year relative survival (RS). Secondary outcome parameters were number of lymph nodes examined, number of positive lymph nodes, radical resection rate, tumor regression grade, post-operative complications and mortality. A total of 1627 patients who underwent IL (n = 1094) or McK (n = 533) esophagectomy were included. Patient and tumor characteristics were balanced after propensity score matching, leaving 658 patients to be compared. The 3-year RS was 54% after IL and 50% after McK esophagectomy, P = 0.140. The median number of lymph nodes examined, median number of positive lymph nodes, radical resection rate and tumor regression grade were comparable between both groups. Recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy (2 vs. 5%, P = 0.006) occurred less frequently after IL esophagectomy. No differences were observed in post-operative anastomotic leakage rate, pulmonary complication rate and mortality rates. There was no statistically significant difference in the 3-year RS between IL and McK esophagectomy. Based on these results, both IL and McK esophagectomy can be performed in patients with mid to distal esophageal and GEJ cancer.

Machine Learning Methods for Survival Analysis with Clinical and Transcriptomics Data of Breast Cancer

Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers in women worldwide, which causes an enormous number of deaths annually. However, early diagnosis of breast cancer can improve survival outcomes enabling simpler and more cost-effective treatments. The recent increase in data availability provides unprecedented opportunities to apply data-driven and machine learning methods to identify early-detection prognostic factors capable of predicting the expected survival and potential sensitivity to treatment of patients, with the final aim of enhancing clinical outcomes. This tutorial presents a protocol for applying machine learning models in survival analysis for both clinical and transcriptomic data. We show that integrating clinical and mRNA expression data is essential to explain the multiple biological processes driving cancer progression. Our results reveal that machine-learning-based models such as random survival forests, gradient boosted survival model, and survival support vector machine can outperform the traditional statistical methods, i.e., Cox proportional hazard model. The highest C-index among the machine learning models was recorded when using survival support vector machine, with a value 0.688, whereas the C-index recorded using the Cox model was 0.677. Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values were also applied to identify the feature importance of the models and their impact on the prediction outcomes.

Impact of C-reactive protein and albumin levels on short, medium, and long term mortality in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

Objectives and study design: In this population-based study of 602 patients, we amended C-reactive protein (CRP) and plasma albumin (PA) levels around the diagnosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) to the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and assessed 0-90, 91-365, and +365-day survival.Results: The CRP did not contribute to the IPI's prognostic or discriminatory ability, regardless of time period, particularly not in models with PA. In contrast, the PA was an important contributor, especially in the 0-90 day period, but also up to one year after the diagnosis. For day 0-90, the model with the IPI only had an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) of 0.742, whereas the IPI with PA as a continuous variable rendered an AUROC of 0.841. Especially the lower PA quartile (18-32 g/L) contributed to the worse prognosis.Conclusions: The amendment of PA to the IPI may significantly improve the short-term prognostic and discriminative ability.Key messagesThe amendment of the plasma albumin (PA) level to the International Prognostic Index significantly improved the prediction of mortality up to one year after the diagnosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.It was especially the lower quartile of the PA level (18-32 g/L) that contributed to the worse prognosis.

All-Cause Mortality Risk Prediction in Older Adults with Cancer: Practical Approaches and Limitations

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The prediction of all-cause mortality is an important component of shared decision-making across the cancer care continuum, particularly in older adults with limited life expectancy, for whom there is an increased risk of over-diagnosis and treatment.

RECENT FINDINGS

Currently, several international societies recommend the use of all-cause mortality risk prediction tools when making decisions regarding screening and treatment in geriatric oncology. Here, we review some practical aspects of the utilization of those tools and dissect the characteristics of those most employed in geriatric oncology, highlighting both their advantages and their limitations.

Association of socioeconomic deprivation with life expectancy and all-cause mortality in Spain, 2011–2013

Life tables summarise a population’s mortality experience during a time period. Sex- and age-specific life tables are needed to compute various cancer survival measures. However, mortality rates vary according to socioeconomic status. We present sex- and age-specific life tables based on socioeconomic status at the census tract level in Spain during 2011–2013 that will allow estimating cancer relative survival estimates and life expectancy measures by socioeconomic status. Population and mortality data were obtained from the Spanish Statistical Office. Socioeconomic level was measured using the Spanish Deprivation Index by census tract. We produced sex- and age-specific life expectancies at birth by quintiles of deprivation, and life tables by census tract and province. Life expectancy at birth was higher among women than among men. Women and men in the most deprived census tracts in Spain lived 3.2 and 3.8 years less than their counterparts in the least deprived areas. A higher life expectancy in the northern regions of Spain was discovered. Life expectancy was higher in provincial capitals than in rural areas. We found a significant life expectancy gap and geographical variation by sex and socioeconomic status in Spain. The gap was more pronounced among men than among women. Understanding the association between life expectancy and socioeconomic status could help in developing appropriate public health programs. Furthermore, the life tables we produced are needed to estimate cancer specific survival measures by socioeconomic status. Therefore, they are important for cancer control in Spain.

Prevalence of Breast Cancer Survivors Among Canadian Women

BACKGROUND

The 49% decrease in breast cancer mortality since 1986 has increased the number of breast cancer survivors requiring survivorship care. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the 2022 prevalence of breast cancer survivors diagnosed within the past 15 years among Canadian women.

METHODS

We extracted the projected female breast cancer cases from 2007 to 2021 and rates of net survival (competing noncancer causes of death removed) from the Canadian Cancer Society's statistical reports. Overall survival was extracted from published Ontario data. Using known survival rates for 1, 5, 10, and 15 years, we interpolated remaining years and applied the corresponding net and overall survival rates to the projected cases for each year from 2007 to 2021 to determine survivors in 2022. Prevalence for predefined age groups was also calculated. As an example of excess healthcare costs attributable to breast cancer, we calculated the excess costs of heart failure hospitalizations.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2021, there were 370,756 breast cancer cases. Using net survival, 318,429 (85.9%) of these patients were projected to survive breast cancer by 2022, a prevalence of 2.1% of Canadian women. Using overall survival, prevalence was 1.8%. Prevalence increased with age group, from 0.01% of those aged 20 to 24 years to 12.7% of those aged ≥90 years, and from 1.0% among the working and/or child-raising (age 20-64 years) to 5.4% among elderly populations (age ≥65 years). Among these survivors, 24.9% of projected heart failure hospitalizations would be in excess of those among matched control subjects, with projected excess costs of $16.5 million CAD. Given the excess healthcare costs, potential for reduced contributions to the workforce, and reduced quality of life associated with long-term impairments and risk of excess non-breast cancer death, enhanced breast cancer survivorship care is warranted.

CONCLUSIONS

With an overall prevalence of 2% among Canadian women, breast cancer survivors represent an increasing segment of the working-age and elderly populations.

Cytogenetics and Molecular Genetics in Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) and Its Correlation with Induction Outcomes

Arathi SrinivasanAims  The aim was to study cytogenetics and molecular genetic profile in pediatric B-acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and correlate it with induction outcomes. Subjects and Methods  A retrospective study of cytogenetics and molecular genetics of 98 children with B-cell ALL from January 2013 to May 2018 was done. Cytogenetics and molecular genetics were done in the bone marrow using multiplex reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and G-banded karyotyping, respectively. Minimal residual disease (MRD) assessment was done at the end of induction by flowcytometry. Results  Of the 98 children, 83 (84.6%) had evaluable cytogenetics, with 11 (13.25%) being abnormal karyotypes. Of the 11 abnormal karyotypes, seven children (8.4%) had hyperdiploidy, one had hypodiploidy, and three had miscellaneous findings. In molecular genetics, TEL-AML1 (ETV6/RUNX1)[t(12;21)] was the most common fusion gene abnormality (12.2% [12/98]), followed by E2A-PBX1 [t(1;19)] (5%), BCR/ABL1 [t(9;22)] (3%), and MLL-AF4 [t(4;11)] (1%). All the 98 children attained morphologic remission at the end of induction. All children with hyperdiploidy (7/7) attained remission and MRD negativity, but one expired during maintenance chemotherapy of disseminated tuberculosis. The child with hypodiploidy was MRD-positive. Three (25%) children with t (12;21) were MRD-positive. All children with Ph + ALL, t(1:19), and t(4;11) were MRD-negative. Fifty-two children had no detected abnormalities, six of whom had MRD positivity (11.5%). Conclusion  Cytogenetic and molecular genetic subgrouping prognosticates ALL outcomes. Although 25% of TEL-AML + children had MRD positivity, larger studies are required to validate the same. End-of-induction MRD outcomes did not correlate with chromosomal aberrations.

Cancer-related reductions in survival: extent and duration evaluated using a large cohort study of twins, 1943-2011

BACKGROUND

The time during which there is an increased risk of death for cancer survivors was evaluated in a large twin study, which allows for matching on shared components such as age, genes, and socioeconomic factors in childhood.

METHODS

By use of data from Danish registers, time to death from initial cancer was studied prospectively in twins in two different settings. The twins were diagnosed with at least one cancer in the period 1943-2011. Setting I included 5,680 same-sex twin pairs aged six and over, while Setting II included 3,218 twin individuals from age 70 and over. The study provides comparisons within twin pairs and across birth cohorts, age at diagnoses, and time at diagnosis.

RESULTS

In 2001-2011, the five-year mortality risk for a twin surviving cancer after the age of 70 was twofold that of the co-twin, regardless of sex and zygosity, and it was 1.5-fold if the twin survived the initial nine months. After five to six years, the mortality risk corresponded to that of the co-twin. In previous decades, the excess hazard risk was considerably higher for both older and younger cohorts. There were no indications of change in relative survival across old birth cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

This large twin study suggested that for a cancer-treatment survivor diagnosed at age 70 or later, the additional mortality risk was largely absent five years later, by which time the survival relative to the co-twin was 60%.

IMPACT

Elevated mortality risk after cancer is offset after five-six years.

Net Survival in Survival Analyses for Patients with Cancer: A Scoping Review

Population-based net survival is an important tool for assessing prognostic advances. The unbiased Pohar Perme Estimator (PPE) was suggested in 2012 and soon established itself as the gold standard for estimating net survival. This scoping review aims to know in which context this estimator is being used in the oncology area, what the authors point out as a justification for its use, and the limitations found. We searched PubMed, and the grey literature to answer the question: Have studies involving patients diagnosed with cancer used the PPE to estimate cancer-specific survival? How do they justify the use of the PPE and what are the limitations pointed out? Out of 295 screened, 85 studies were included in this review. The two main characteristics of the PPE mentioned by the studies as justification were the fact that it is an unbiased estimator (83.5%) and that it produces comparable estimates among populations with different mortality rates from causes other than cancer (36.47%). No study pointed to a limitation due to the use of PPE. As a conclusion, the Pohar Perme Estimator is the gold standard for estimating net survival and should be more used in oncology, especially when dealing with population-based studies where the follow-up time is long, making high the probability of death from causes other than cancer.

Conditional estimates for uterine serous cancer: Tools for survivorship counseling and planning

OBJECTIVES

Develop conditional survival and risk-assessment estimates for uterine serous carcinoma (USC) overall and stratified by stage as tools for annual survivorship counseling and care planning.

METHODS

Patients in the National Cancer Data Base diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 with stage I-IV USC were eligible. Individuals missing stage or survival data or with multiple malignancies were excluded. Five-year conditional survival was estimated using the stage-stratified Kaplan-Meier method annually during follow-up. A standardized mortality ratio (SMR) estimated the proportion of observed to expected deaths in the U.S. adjusted for year, age, and race. The relationships between prognostic factors and survival were studied using multivariate Cox modeling at diagnosis and conditioned on surviving 5-years.

RESULTS

There were 14,575 participants, including 43% with stage I, 8% with stage II, 29% with stage III, and 20% with stage IV USC. Five-year survival at diagnosis vs. after surviving 5-years was 52% vs. 75% overall, 77% vs. 81% for stage I, 57% vs. 72% for stage II, 40% vs. 66% for stage III, and 17% vs. 60% for stage IV USC, respectively (P < 0.0001). Incremental improvements in 5-year conditional survival and reductions in SMR tracked with annual follow-up and higher stage. The adjusted risk of death at diagnosis vs. after surviving 5-years was 1.15 vs. 1.40 per 5-year increase of age, 1.26 vs. 1.68 for Medicaid insurance, 3.92 vs. 2.48 for stage III disease, and 6.65 vs. 2.79 for stage IV disease, respectively (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

In USC, the evolution of conditional survival permits annual reassessments of prognosis to tailor survivorship counseling and care planning.

Changes in Survival Outcomes of Patients With Neuroendocrine Neoplasms Over the Past 15 Years: A Real-World Study

BACKGROUND

The past 2 decades have observed a number of advances in therapeutic approaches to patients with neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs). This study aims to assess whether survival outcomes have changed among patients with NENs over the past 15 years, in a real-world, population-based study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We accessed administrative databases within the province of Alberta, Canada, and we reviewed patients with invasive NENs diagnosed 2004 to 2019. Patients were classified according to the year of diagnosis into 3 groups: 2004 to 2008; 2009 to 2013; and 2014 to 2019. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were used to compare overall survival (OS) according to different baseline characteristics (including the year of diagnosis). Multivariable Cox regression modeling was used to examine factors associated with the risk of death in this cohort.

RESULTS

We included a total of 3431 patients in the study cohort. Using multivariable Cox regression analysis, the following factors were associated with worse survival: older age at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.45; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 2.74-4.35), male sex (HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.21-1.56), lung primary site (HR for lung vs. appendicular primary: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.01-1.92), Stage 4 disease (HR: 2.80; 95% CI: 2.38-3.30), South zone of the province (HR for South zone vs. Calgary zone: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.49-2.30), and higher comorbidity index (HR for ≥3 vs. 0: 2.66; 95% CI: 2.19-3.24). Although Kaplan-Meier method showed significant difference in OS according to diagnosis period, multivariable regression model showed that the period of diagnosis did not appear to impact OS (HR for diagnosis period 2004 to 2009 vs. 2014 to 2019: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.89-1.22).

CONCLUSIONS

Over the study period (2004 to 2019), patients diagnosed during later periods did not appear to experience better OS compared with patients diagnosed at an earlier time.