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Rumgay H, Cabasag CJ, Offman J, de Camargo Cancela M, Barchuk A, Mathur P, Wang S, Wei W, Sasieni P, Soerjomataram I. International burden of cancer deaths and years of life lost from cancer attributable to four major risk factors: a population-based study in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and United States. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 66:102289. [PMID: 38192589 PMCID: PMC10772154 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2023] [Revised: 10/10/2023] [Accepted: 10/10/2023] [Indexed: 01/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Background We provide a comprehensive view of the impact of alcohol consumption, tobacco smoking, excess body weight, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection on cancer mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK), and United States (US). Methods We collected population attributable fractions of the four risk factors from global population-based studies and applied these to estimates of cancer deaths in 2020 to obtain potentially preventable cancer deaths and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Using life tables, we calculated the number and age-standardised rates of YLLs (ASYR). Findings In Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the UK, and the US in 2020, an estimated 5.9 million (3.3 million-8.6 million) YLLs from cancer were attributable to alcohol consumption, 20.8 million (17.0 million-24.6 million) YLLs to tobacco smoking, 3.1 million (2.4 million-3.8 million) YLLs to excess body weight, and 4.0 million (3.9 million-4.2 million) YLLs to HPV infection. The ASYR from cancer due to alcohol consumption was highest in China (351.4 YLLs per 100,000 population [95% CI 194.5-519.2]) and lowest in the US (113.5 [69.6-157.1]) and India (115.4 [49.7-172.7). For tobacco smoking, China (1159.9 [950.6-1361.8]) had the highest ASYR followed by Russia (996.8 [831.0-1154.5). For excess body weight, Russia and the US had the highest ASYRs (385.1 [280.6-481.2] and 369.4 [299.6-433.6], respectively). The highest ASYR due to HPV infection was in South Africa (457.1 [453.3-462.6]). ASYRs for alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking were higher among men than women, whereas women had higher ASYRs for excess body weight and HPV infection. Interpretation Our findings demonstrate the importance of cancer control efforts to reduce the burden of cancer death and YLLs due to modifiable cancer risk factors and promote the use of YLLs to summarise disease burden. Funding Cancer Research UK.
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Affiliation(s)
- Harriet Rumgay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Citadel J. Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Judith Offman
- School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
- Centre for Prevention, Detection and Diagnosis, Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Marianna de Camargo Cancela
- Division of Cancer Surveillance and Data Analysis, Brazilian National Cancer Institute (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Anton Barchuk
- Institute for Interdisciplinary Health Research, European University at St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russia
- ITMO University, St. Petersburg, Russia
| | - Prashant Mathur
- Indian Council of Medical Research - National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, Bengaluru, India
| | - Shaoming Wang
- National Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Wenqiang Wei
- National Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Peter Sasieni
- School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
- Centre for Prevention, Detection and Diagnosis, Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
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Cabasag CJ, Arnold M, Rutherford M, Ferlay J, Bardot A, Morgan E, Butler J, O'Connell DL, Nelson G, Høgdall C, Schnack T, Gavin A, Elwood M, Hanna L, Gourley C, De P, Saint-Jacques N, Mørch LS, Woods RR, Altman AD, Sykes P, Cohen PA, McNally O, Møller B, Walsh P, Morrison DS, Bray F, Soerjomataram I. Shifting incidence and survival of epithelial ovarian cancer (1995-2014): A SurvMark-2 study. Int J Cancer 2023; 152:1763-1777. [PMID: 36533660 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2022] [Revised: 10/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
The aim of the study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of incidence and survival trends of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) by histological subtype across seven high income countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom). Data on invasive EOC diagnosed in women aged 15 to 99 years during 1995 to 2014 were obtained from 20 cancer registries. Age standardized incidence rates and average annual percentage change were calculated by subtype for all ages and age groups (15-64 and 65-99 years). Net survival (NS) was estimated by subtype, age group and 5-year period using Pohar-Perme estimator. Our findings showed marked increase in serous carcinoma incidence was observed between 1995 and 2014 among women aged 65 to 99 years with average annual increase ranging between 2.2% and 5.8%. We documented a marked decrease in the incidence of adenocarcinoma "not otherwise specified" with estimates ranging between 4.4% and 7.4% in women aged 15 to 64 years and between 2.0% and 3.7% among the older age group. Improved survival, combining all EOC subtypes, was observed for all ages combined over the 20-year study period in all countries with 5-year NS absolute percent change ranging between 5.0 in Canada and 12.6 in Denmark. Several factors such as changes in guidelines and advancement in diagnostic tools may potentially influence the observed shift in histological subtypes and temporal trends. Progress in clinical management and treatment over the past decades potentially plays a role in the observed improvements in EOC survival.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Melina Arnold
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mark Rutherford
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Aude Bardot
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Eileen Morgan
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Center for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
| | | | - Dianne L O'Connell
- The Daffodil Center, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Gregg Nelson
- Tom Baker Cancer Center, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Claus Høgdall
- Department of Gynecology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Tine Schnack
- Department of Gynecology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Anna Gavin
- Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Center for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
| | - Mark Elwood
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | | | - Charlie Gourley
- Institute of Genetics and Cancer, Cancer Research UK Edinburgh Center, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | | | | | - Lina Steinrud Mørch
- The Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Cancer Surveillance and Pharmacoepidemiology, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ryan R Woods
- Cancer Control Research, BC Cancer, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Alon D Altman
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of Manitoba, Manitoba, Canada
- CancerCare Manitoba Research Institute, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Peter Sykes
- University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Paul A Cohen
- Department of Gynaecological Oncology, St John of God Subiaco Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
- Discipline of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Orla McNally
- Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Paul Walsh
- National Cancer Registry Ireland, Cork, Ireland
| | | | - Freddie Bray
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Morgan E, Arnold M, Gini A, Lorenzoni V, Cabasag CJ, Laversanne M, Vignat J, Ferlay J, Murphy N, Bray F. Global burden of colorectal cancer in 2020 and 2040: incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN. Gut 2023; 72:338-344. [PMID: 36604116 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2022-327736] [Citation(s) in RCA: 251] [Impact Index Per Article: 251.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. The geographical and temporal burden of this cancer provides insights into risk factor prevalence and progress in cancer control strategies. We examine the current and future burden of CRC in 185 countries in 2020 and 2040. METHODS Data on CRC cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. Age-specific rates were also estimated. The predicted number of cases and deaths in 2040 were calculated based on global demographic projections by HDI. RESULTS Over 1.9 million new CRC cases and 930 000 deaths were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were highest in Australia/ New Zealand and European regions (40.6 per 100 000, males) and lowest in several African regions and Southern Asia (4.4 per 100 000, females). Similar patterns were observed for mortality rates, with the highest observed in Eastern Europe (20.2 per 100 000, males) and the lowest in Southern Asia (2.5 per 100 000, females). The burden of CRC is projected to increase to 3.2 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths by 2040 with most cases predicted to occur in high or very high HDI countries. CONCLUSIONS CRC is a highly frequent cancer worldwide, and largely preventable through changes in modifiable risk factors, alongside the detection and removal of precancerous lesions. With increasing rates in transitioning countries and younger adults, there is a pressing need to better understand and act on findings to avert future cases and deaths from the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - A Gini
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - V Lorenzoni
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Institute of Management, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy
| | - C J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Neil Murphy
- Nutrition and Metabolism Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Cabasag CJ, Vignat J, Ferlay J, Arndt V, Lemmens V, Praagman J, Bray F, Soerjomataram I. The preventability of cancer in Europe: A quantitative assessment of avoidable cancer cases across 17 cancer sites and 38 countries in 2020. Eur J Cancer 2022; 177:15-24. [PMID: 36323048 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2022.09.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to provide an update of the estimated proportion of avoidable cases across European region for cancers associated with modifiable risk factors. METHODS Age-standardised incidence rates for 38 European countries in 2020 were derived from GLOBOCAN database. For 17 cancer sites, we estimated the number and proportion of avoidable cancer cases. The mean of the three lowest country-specific incidence (excluding rates of zero) was defined as the attainable rate for each combination of cancer site, sex, and age group. The number and proportion of avoidable cancer cases was calculated as the difference between the country-specific and attainable incidence rates. RESULTS Approximately, 697,000 cancer cases (33%) of all cases in men, and 837,000 (44%) in women were potentially avoidable. Lung, colorectal, and female breast cancer contributed the largest avoidable burden from cancer, with a combined 790,000 cases, followed by mesothelioma, melanoma of the skin, laryngeal, and oesophageal cancer as major contributors. Large geographical variations were found in the estimated proportion of avoidable cancer cases by sex. CONCLUSIONS A cohesive population-level preventative effort to reduce modifiable cancer risk factors could potentially have considerable impact in reducing the future burden of many cancers in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research in Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research in Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research in Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Volker Arndt
- German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Valery Lemmens
- Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL), Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Jaike Praagman
- Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL), Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research in Cancer, Lyon, France
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Maláková K, Cabasag CJ, Bardot A, Sangrajrang S, Chitapanarux I, Sripan P, Suwanrungruang K, Pongnikorn D, Thongsuksai P, Sriplung H, Soerjomataram I. Cancer survival in Thailand from 1997 to 2012: Assessing the impact of universal health coverage. J Cancer Policy 2022; 34:100353. [PMID: 36357312 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcpo.2022.100353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2022] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 08/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In recent decades, many countries worldwide have implemented some form of Universal Health Coverage (UHC). We sought to evaluate incidence and survival trends of breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer before and after the implementation of UHC in Thailand. METHODS The age-standardized incidence rate and 1- and 5-year net survival (NS) were calculated for five Thai provinces, namely Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Khon Kaen, Lampang, and Songkhla for breast, cervix, and colorectal cancer in three study periods (1997-2012): before, during, and after the implementation of UHC. RESULTS The incidence of breast and colorectal cancer has increased over time, while the incidence of cervical cancer has decreased (17.9-29.9, 9.0-13.6, and 19.6-12.3 per 100,000, respectively). Larger proportion of breast cancer were diagnosed with localized stage after UHC implementation compared to the period prior to UHC (31.5 % vs 19.0 %). Overall, The improvement in survival by cancer site varied in magnitude with a 5-year NS increase from 61.3 % to 75.1 % for breast, 55.4-59.5 % for cervical, and 39.9-47.6 % for colorectal cancer. The amount of increase slightly differed across provinces. CONCLUSION Rising incidence for breast and colorectal, and declining cervical cancer may partly be attributable to improved awareness and early detection programs. Additionally, improvement in survival may partly be attributable to increased access to healthcare, availability of treatment, and increased access to cancer screening after UHC was implemented. Thus, continued expansion of UHC package on cancer could potentially contribute to further improvement of cancer control in Thailand. POLICY SUMMARY This study provides important evidence on the impact of UHC in cancer burden and survival for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer in Thailand. This study serves as an example for other countries where UHC has been recently implemented and guide policymakers in allocating resources towards UHC and cancer control programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kateřina Maláková
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Department of Demography and Geodemography, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czechia
| | - Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Aude Bardot
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Imjai Chitapanarux
- Department of Radiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; Chiang Mai Cancer Registry, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Patumrat Sripan
- Chiang Mai Cancer Registry, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; Research Institute for Health Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | | | | | - Paramee Thongsuksai
- Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand
| | - Hutcha Sriplung
- Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand
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Cabasag CJ, Fagan PJ, Ferlay J, Vignat J, Laversanne M, Liu L, van der Aa MA, Bray F, Soerjomataram I. Ovarian cancer today and tomorrow: A global assessment by world region and Human Development Index using GLOBOCAN 2020. Int J Cancer 2022; 151:1535-1541. [PMID: 35322413 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2021] [Revised: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Ovarian cancer remains to have relatively poor prognosis particularly in low-resourced settings. It is therefore important to continually examine the burden of ovarian cancer to identify areas of disparities. Our study aims to provide an overview of the global burden of ovarian cancer using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates by country, world region, and Human Development Index (HDI) levels, as well as the predicted future burden by the year 2040 by HDI. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for ovarian cancer in 185 countries were calculated by country, world region, and for the four-tier HDI. The number of new cases and deaths were projected for the year 2040 based on demographic projections by HDI category. Approximately 314 000 new ovarian cancer cases and 207 000 deaths occurred in 2020. There were marked geographic variations in incidence rates, with the highest rates observed in European countries with very high HDI and low rates were found in African countries within the lowest HDI group. Comparable mortality rates were observed across the four-tier HDI. Relative to 2020 estimates, our projection for 2040 indicates approximately 96% and 100% increase in new ovarian cancer cases and deaths, respectively, among low HDI countries compared to 19% and 28% in very high HDI countries. Our study highlights the disproportionate current and future burden of ovarian cancer in countries with lower HDI levels, calling for global action to reduce the burden and inequality of ovarian cancer in access to quality cancer care and treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Paula J Fagan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Lihua Liu
- Norris Comprehensive Cancer Center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Maaike A van der Aa
- Department of Research & Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Cabasag CJ, Ferlay J, Laversanne M, Vignat J, Weber A, Soerjomataram I, Bray F. Pancreatic cancer: an increasing global public health concern. Gut 2022; 71:1686-1687. [PMID: 34686577 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2021-326311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Accepted: 10/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Andras Weber
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Hungarian National Cancer Registry, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Cabasag CJ, Arnold M, Rutherford M, Bardot A, Ferlay J, Morgan E, Little A, De P, Dixon E, Woods RR, Saint-Jacques N, Evans S, Engholm G, Elwood M, Merrett N, Ransom D, O'Connell DL, Bray F, Soerjomataram I. Pancreatic cancer survival by stage and age in seven high-income countries (ICBP SURVMARK-2): a population-based study. Br J Cancer 2022; 126:1774-1782. [PMID: 35236937 PMCID: PMC9174285 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-022-01752-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Revised: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 02/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The global burden of pancreatic cancer has steadily increased, while the prognosis after pancreatic cancer diagnosis remains poor. This study aims to compare the stage- and age-specific pancreatic cancer net survival (NS) for seven high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and United Kingdom. METHODS The study included over 35,000 pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed during 2012-2014, followed through 31 December 2015. The stage- and age-specific NS were calculated using the Pohar-Perme estimator. RESULTS Pancreatic cancer survival estimates were low across all 7 countries, with 1-year NS ranging from 21.1% in New Zealand to 30.9% in Australia, and 3-year NS from 6.6% in the UK to 10.9% in Australia. Most pancreatic cancers were diagnosed with distant stage, ranging from 53.9% in Ireland to 83.3% in New Zealand. While survival differences were evident between countries across all stage categories at one year after diagnosis, this survival advantage diminished, particularly in cases with distant stage. CONCLUSION This study demonstrated the importance of stage and age at diagnosis in pancreatic cancer survival. Although progress has been made in improving pancreatic cancer prognosis, the disease is highly fatal and will remain so without major breakthroughs in the early diagnosis and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France.
| | - Melina Arnold
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Mark Rutherford
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, UK
| | - Aude Bardot
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Alana Little
- Cancer Institute New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Prithwish De
- Surveillance and Cancer Registry, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Elijah Dixon
- Department of Surgery, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - Ryan R Woods
- Cancer Control Research, BC Cancer, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | - Sue Evans
- Victorian Cancer Registry Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Gerda Engholm
- Cancer Surveillance and Pharmacoepidemiology, Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Strandboulevarden, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mark Elwood
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Neil Merrett
- Department of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery, Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital and School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - David Ransom
- Fiona Stanley Hospital and Western Australian Department of Health, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Dianne L O'Connell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France
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Luo Q, O'Connell DL, Yu XQ, Kahn C, Caruana M, Pesola F, Sasieni P, Grogan PB, Aranda S, Cabasag CJ, Soerjomataram I, Steinberg J, Canfell K. Cancer incidence and mortality in Australia from 2020 to 2044 and an exploratory analysis of the potential effect of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic: a statistical modelling study. Lancet Public Health 2022; 7:e537-e548. [PMID: 35660215 PMCID: PMC9159737 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(22)00090-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 02/28/2022] [Accepted: 03/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Long-term projections of cancer incidence and mortality estimate the future burden of cancer in a population, and can be of great use in informing the planning of health services and the management of resources. We aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates and numbers of new cases and deaths up until 2044 for all cancers combined and for 21 individual cancer types in Australia. We also illustrate the potential effect of treatment delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic on future colorectal cancer mortality rates. METHODS In this statistical modelling study, cancer incidence and mortality rates in Australia from 2020 to 2044 were projected based on data up to 2017 and 2019, respectively. Cigarette smoking exposure (1945-2019), participation rates in the breast cancer screening programme (1996-2019), and prostate-specific antigen testing rates (1994-2020) were included where relevant. The baseline projection model using an age-period-cohort model or generalised linear model for each cancer type was selected based on model fit statistics and validation with pre-COVID-19 observed data. To assess the impact of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic on colorectal cancer mortality, we obtained data on incidence, survival, prevalence, and cancer treatment for colorectal cancer from different authorities. The relative risks of death due to system-caused treatment delays were derived from a published systematic review. Numbers of excess colorectal cancer deaths were estimated using the relative risk of death per week of treatment delay and different durations of delay under a number of hypothetical scenarios. FINDINGS Projections indicate that in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic effects, the age-standardised incidence rate for all cancers combined for males would decline over 2020-44, and for females the incidence rate would be relatively stable in Australia. The mortality rates for all cancers combined for both males and females are expected to continuously decline during 2020-44. The total number of new cases are projected to increase by 47·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·2-61·3) for males, from 380 306 in 2015-19 to 560 744 (95% UI 514 244-613 356) in 2040-44, and by 54·4% (95% UI 40·2-70·5) for females, from 313 263 in 2015-19 to 483 527 (95% UI 439 069-534 090) in 2040-44. The number of cancer deaths are projected to increase by 36·4% (95% UI 15·3-63·9) for males, from 132 440 in 2015-19 to 180 663 (95% UI 152 719-217 126) in 2040-44, and by 36·6% (95% UI 15·8-64·1) for females, from 102 103 in 2015-19 to 139 482 (95% UI 118 186-167 527) in 2040-44, due to population ageing and growth. The example COVID-19 pandemic scenario of a 6-month health-care system disruption with 16-week treatment delays for colorectal cancer patients could result in 460 (95% UI 338-595) additional deaths and 437 (95% UI 314-570) deaths occurring earlier than expected in 2020-44. INTERPRETATION These projections can inform health service planning for cancer care and treatment in Australia. Despite the continuous decline in cancer mortality rates, and the decline or plateau in incidence rates, our projections suggest an overall 51% increase in the number of new cancer cases and a 36% increase in the number of cancer deaths over the 25-year projection period. This means that continued efforts to increase screening uptake and to control risk factors, including smoking exposure, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and infections, must remain public health priorities. FUNDING Partly funded by Cancer Council Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qingwei Luo
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
| | - Dianne L O'Connell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
| | - Xue Qin Yu
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Clare Kahn
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Michael Caruana
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Francesca Pesola
- Health and Lifestyle Research Unit, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Peter Sasieni
- Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Innovation Hub, Guys Cancer Centre, Guys Hospital, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Paul B Grogan
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sanchia Aranda
- Cancer City Challenge Foundation, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Nursing, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Julia Steinberg
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Karen Canfell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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10
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Sarich P, Cabasag CJ, Liebermann E, Vaneckova P, Carle C, Hughes S, Egger S, O'Connell DL, Weber MF, da Costa AM, Caruana M, Bray F, Canfell K, Ginsburg O, Steinberg J, Soerjomataram I. Tobacco smoking changes during the first pre-vaccination phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis. EClinicalMedicine 2022; 47:101375. [PMID: 35434579 PMCID: PMC9002019 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Revised: 03/07/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Globally, tobacco smoking remains the largest preventable cause of premature death. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced nations to take unprecedented measures, including 'lockdowns' that might impact tobacco smoking behaviour. We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses to assess smoking behaviour changes during the early pre-vaccination phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Methods We searched Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/BioRxiv/MedRxiv/SSRN databases (January-November 2020) for published and pre-print articles that reported specific smoking behaviour changes or intentions after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used random-effects models to pool prevalence ratios comparing the prevalence of smoking during and before the pandemic, and the prevalence of smoking behaviour changes during the pandemic. The PROSPERO registration number for this systematic review was CRD42020206383. Findings 31 studies were included in meta-analyses, with smoking data for 269,164 participants across 24 countries. The proportion of people smoking during the pandemic was lower than that before, with a pooled prevalence ratio of 0·87 (95%CI:0·79-0·97). Among people who smoke, 21% (95%CI:14-30%) smoked less, 27% (95%CI:22-32%) smoked more, 50% (95%CI:41%-58%) had unchanged smoking and 4% (95%CI:1-9%) reported quitting smoking. Among people who did not smoke, 2% (95%CI:1-3%) started smoking during the pandemic. Heterogeneity was high in all meta-analyses and so the pooled estimates should be interpreted with caution (I2 >91% and p-heterogeneity<0·001). Almost all studies were at high risk of bias due to use of non-representative samples, non-response bias, and utilisation of non-validated questions. Interpretation Smoking behaviour changes during the first phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were highly mixed. Meta-analyses indicated that there was a relative reduction in overall smoking prevalence during the pandemic, while similar proportions of people who smoke smoked more or smoked less, although heterogeneity was high. Implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies and programs, including tobacco cessation services, have an important role in ensuring that the COVID-19 pandemic does not exacerbate the smoking pandemic and associated adverse health outcomes. Funding No specific funding was received for this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Sarich
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Erica Liebermann
- College of Nursing, University of Rhode Island, RI, United States
| | - Pavla Vaneckova
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Chelsea Carle
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Suzanne Hughes
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Sam Egger
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Dianne L O'Connell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Marianne F Weber
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Allini Mafra da Costa
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Michael Caruana
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Karen Canfell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
| | - Ophira Ginsburg
- Center for Global Health, National Cancer Institute, MD, United States
| | - Julia Steinberg
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, PO Box 572, Kings Cross, NSW 1340, Australia
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11
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Cabasag CJ, Arnold M, Piñeros M, Morgan E, Brierley J, Hofferkamp J, Kehoe S, Butler J, Bucher O, Bray F, Soerjomataram I, Parkin DM. Population-based cancer staging for oesophageal, gastric, and pancreatic cancer 2012-2014: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership SurvMark-2. Int J Cancer 2021; 149:1239-1246. [PMID: 33990959 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2021] [Revised: 04/16/2021] [Accepted: 04/27/2021] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Cancer stage at diagnosis is important information for management and treatment of individual patients as well as in epidemiological studies to evaluate effectiveness of health care system in managing cancer patients. Population-based studies to examine international disparities on cancer survival by stage, however, has been challenging due to the lack of international standardization on recording stage information and variation in stage completeness across regions and countries. The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) previously assessed the availability and comparability of staging information for colorectal, lung, female breast and ovarian cancers. Stage conversion algorithms were developed to aggregate and map all stage information into a single staging system to allow international comparison by stage at diagnosis. In this article, we developed stage conversion algorithms for three additional cancers, namely oesophageal, gastric and pancreatic cancers. We examined all stage information available, evaluated stage completeness, applied each stage conversion algorithm, and assessed the magnitude of misclassification using data from six Canadian cancer registries (Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan). In addition, we discussed five recommendations for registries to improve international cancer survival comparison by stage: (a) improve collection and completeness of staging data; (b) promote a comparable definition for stage at diagnosis; (c) promote the use of a common stage classification system; (d) record versions of staging classifications and (e) use multiple data sources for valid staging data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Marion Piñeros
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - James Brierley
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Jim Hofferkamp
- North American Association of Central Registries, Springfield, Illinois, USA
| | - Sean Kehoe
- University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - John Butler
- Royal Marsden Hospital, London, UK
- Cancer Research UK, London, UK
| | - Oliver Bucher
- Epidemiology and Cancer Registry, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - D Maxwell Parkin
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Nuffield Department of Population Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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12
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Virani S, Baiocchi G, Bowtell D, Cabasag CJ, Cho KR, Fortner RT, Fujiwara K, Kim JW, Köbel M, Kurtz JE, Levine DA, Menon U, Norquist BM, Pharoah PDP, Sood AK, Tworoger ST, Wentzensen N, Chanock SJ, Brennan P, Trabert B. Joint IARC/NCI International Cancer Seminar Series Report: expert consensus on future directions for ovarian carcinoma research. Carcinogenesis 2021; 42:785-793. [PMID: 34037709 PMCID: PMC8427725 DOI: 10.1093/carcin/bgab043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2021] [Revised: 05/14/2021] [Accepted: 05/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Recently, ovarian cancer research has evolved considerably because of the emerging recognition that rather than a single disease, ovarian carcinomas comprise several different histotypes that vary by etiologic origin, risk factors, molecular profiles, therapeutic approaches and clinical outcome. Despite significant progress in our understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of ovarian cancer, as well as important clinical advances, it remains the eighth most frequently diagnosed cancer in women worldwide and the most fatal gynecologic cancer. The International Agency for Research on Cancer and the United States National Cancer Institute jointly convened an expert panel on ovarian carcinoma to develop consensus research priorities based on evolving scientific discoveries. Expertise ranged from etiology, prevention, early detection, pathology, model systems, molecular characterization and treatment/clinical management. This report summarizes the current state of knowledge and highlights expert consensus on future directions to continue advancing etiologic, epidemiologic and prognostic research on ovarian carcinoma.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shama Virani
- International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Genomic Epidemiology Branch, Lyon, France
| | - Glauco Baiocchi
- Department of Gynecology Oncology, A.C. Camargo Cancer Center, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - David Bowtell
- Women’s Cancer Program, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Kathleen R Cho
- Department of Pathology, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Renée T Fortner
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Keiichi Fujiwara
- Department of Gynecologic Oncology, Saitama Medical University International Medical Center, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Jae-Weon Kim
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Martin Köbel
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Jean-Emmanuel Kurtz
- Department of Medical and Surgical Oncology and Hematology, Strasbourg Cancer Institute (ICANS-Europe), Strasbourg, France
| | - Douglas A Levine
- Gynecologic Oncology, Laura and Isaac Pearlmutter Cancer Center, New York University Langone Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
| | - Usha Menon
- MRC CTU at UCL, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, University College London, London, UK
| | - Barbara M Norquist
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Paul D P Pharoah
- Department of Oncology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Anil K Sood
- Department of Gynecologic Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Shelley T Tworoger
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Nicolas Wentzensen
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, DHHS, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Stephen J Chanock
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, DHHS, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Paul Brennan
- International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Genomic Epidemiology Branch, Lyon, France
| | - Britton Trabert
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, DHHS, Bethesda, MD, USA
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13
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Araghi M, Arnold M, Rutherford MJ, Guren MG, Cabasag CJ, Bardot A, Ferlay J, Tervonen H, Shack L, Woods RR, Saint-Jacques N, De P, McClure C, Engholm G, Gavin AT, Morgan E, Walsh PM, Jackson C, Porter G, Møller B, Bucher O, Eden M, O'Connell DL, Bray F, Soerjomataram I. Colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries 2010-2014: variation by age and stage at diagnosis (the ICBP SURVMARK-2 project). Gut 2021; 70:114-126. [PMID: 32482683 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2020-320625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2020] [Revised: 04/01/2020] [Accepted: 04/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES As part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) SURVMARK-2 project, we provide the most recent estimates of colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries by age and stage at diagnosis. METHODS Data from 386 870 patients diagnosed during 2010-2014 from 19 cancer registries in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK) were analysed. 1-year and 5-year net survival from colon and rectal cancer were estimated by stage at diagnosis, age and country, RESULTS: (One1-year) and 5-year net survival varied between (77.1% and 87.5%) 59.1% and 70.9% and (84.8% and 90.0%) 61.6% and 70.9% for colon and rectal cancer, respectively. Survival was consistently higher in Australia, Canada and Norway, with smaller proportions of patients with metastatic disease in Canada and Australia. International differences in (1-year) and 5-year survival were most pronounced for regional and distant colon cancer ranging between (86.0% and 94.1%) 62.5% and 77.5% and (40.7% and 56.4%) 8.0% and 17.3%, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for rectal cancer. Stage distribution of colon and rectal cancers by age varied across countries with marked survival differences for patients with metastatic disease and diagnosed at older ages (irrespective of stage). CONCLUSIONS Survival disparities for colon and rectal cancer across high-income countries are likely explained by earlier diagnosis in some countries and differences in treatment for regional and distant disease, as well as older age at diagnosis. Differences in cancer registration practice and different staging systems across countries may have impacted the comparisons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marzieh Araghi
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mark J Rutherford
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Marianne Grønlie Guren
- Department of Oncology and K.G. Jebsen Colorectal Cancer Research Centre, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Citadel J Cabasag
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Aude Bardot
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hanna Tervonen
- Cancer Institute NSW, Alexandria, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Lorraine Shack
- Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Ryan R Woods
- BC Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Nathalie Saint-Jacques
- Registry & Analytics, Nova Scotia Health Authority Cancer Care Program, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Prithwish De
- Surveillance and Cancer Registry, Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Carol McClure
- PEI Cancer Registry, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada
| | - Gerda Engholm
- Cancer Prevention & Documentation, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Anna T Gavin
- Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Eileen Morgan
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | | | | | - Geoff Porter
- Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Bjorn Møller
- Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Oliver Bucher
- Population Oncology, CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Michael Eden
- National Cancer Registry and Analysis Service, London, UK
| | - Dianne L O'Connell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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14
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Norell CH, Butler J, Farrell R, Altman A, Bentley J, Cabasag CJ, Cohen PA, Fegan S, Fung-Kee-Fung M, Gourley C, Hacker NF, Hanna L, Høgdall CK, Kristensen G, Kwon J, McNally O, Nelson G, Nordin A, O'Donnell D, Schnack T, Sykes PH, Zotow E, Harrison S. Exploring international differences in ovarian cancer treatment: a comparison of clinical practice guidelines and patterns of care. Int J Gynecol Cancer 2020; 30:1748-1756. [PMID: 32784203 PMCID: PMC7656152 DOI: 10.1136/ijgc-2020-001403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Revised: 06/11/2020] [Accepted: 06/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership demonstrated international differences in ovarian cancer survival, particularly for women aged 65-74 with advanced disease. These findings suggest differences in treatment could be contributing to survival disparities. OBJECTIVE To compare clinical practice guidelines and patterns of care across seven high-income countries. METHODS A comparison of guidelines was performed and validated by a clinical working group. To explore clinical practice, a patterns of care survey was developed. A questionnaire regarding management and potential health system-related barriers to providing treatment was emailed to gynecological specialists. Guideline and survey results were crudely compared with 3-year survival by 'distant' stage using Spearman's rho. RESULTS Twenty-seven guidelines were compared, and 119 clinicians completed the survey. Guideline-related measures varied between countries but did not correlate with survival internationally. Guidelines were consistent for surgical recommendations of either primary debulking surgery or neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval debulking surgery with the aim of complete cytoreduction. Reported patterns of surgical care varied internationally, including for rates of primary versus interval debulking, extensive/'ultra-radical' surgery, and perceived barriers to optimal cytoreduction. Comparison showed that willingness to undertake extensive surgery correlated with survival across countries (rs=0.94, p=0.017). For systemic/radiation therapies, guideline differences were more pronounced, particularly for bevacizumab and PARP (poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase) inhibitors. Reported health system-related barriers also varied internationally and included a lack of adequate hospital staffing and treatment monitoring via local and national audits. DISCUSSION Findings suggest international variations in ovarian cancer treatment. Characteristics relating to countries with higher stage-specific survival included higher reported rates of primary surgery; willingness to undertake extensive/ultra-radical procedures; greater access to high-cost drugs; and auditing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles H Norell
- International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP), Policy & Information, Cancer Research UK, London, UK
| | - John Butler
- International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP), Policy & Information, Cancer Research UK, London, UK
- Gynaecology Department, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Rhonda Farrell
- Gynaecological Oncology Department, Chris O'Brien Lifehouse, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Alon Altman
- Department of Gynecologic Oncology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - James Bentley
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Citadel J Cabasag
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Paul A Cohen
- Department of Gynaecological Oncology, St John of God Health Care, West Perth, Ontario, Australia
| | - Scott Fegan
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Michael Fung-Kee-Fung
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynaecology and Surgery, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Charlie Gourley
- Cancer Research UK Edinburgh Centre, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Neville F Hacker
- Gynaecological Cancer Centre, Royal Hospital for Women, Randwick, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Women's & Children's Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Louise Hanna
- Department of Oncology, Velindre Cancer Centre, Cardiff, Wales, UK
| | - Claus Kim Høgdall
- Gynecologic Department, The Juliane Marie Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Gunnar Kristensen
- Department of Gynecologic Oncology and Institute for Cancer Genetics and Informatics, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Janice Kwon
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Vancouver General Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Orla McNally
- Oncology and Dysplasia Service, Royal Women's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Gregg Nelson
- Department of Oncology, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Andy Nordin
- Department of Gynaecological Oncology, East Kent Hospitals University NHS Foundation Trust, Canterbury, UK
| | | | - Tine Schnack
- Department of Gynaecology, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Peter H Sykes
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Ewa Zotow
- Policy & Information, Cancer Research UK, London, UK
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15
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Pilleron S, Cabasag CJ, Ferlay J, Bray F, Luciani S, Almonte M, Piñeros M. Cervical cancer burden in Latin America and the Caribbean: Where are we? Int J Cancer 2020; 147:1638-1648. [PMID: 32150288 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32956] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2020] [Revised: 02/19/2020] [Accepted: 03/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
In May 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) called for the elimination of cervical cancer. To monitor this initiative, we examined cervical cancer incidence and mortality in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region using GLOBOCAN 2018, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Series, and the WHO Mortality Database. We estimated the number of cases and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for cervical cancer incidence and mortality for 2018. We also presented the ASRs for recorded cervical cancer incidence from the period 2008 to 2012. We calculated annual rates and analyzed trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality for all ages combined and for the following age groups: 0-29, 30-49, 50-64 and 65+. Finally, we calculated the estimated average annual percentage change in incidence and mortality rates for the past 10 years. In 2018, an estimated 56,000 new cervical cancer cases and 28,000 cervical cancer deaths occurred among women in LAC with great variations between subregions and countries/territories. Overall, trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality have decreased over the past decade; however, the rates are still above the elimination threshold of 4 per 100,000 in most LAC countries/territories. Despite the encouraging trends observed, achieving the elimination of cervical cancer in the region still requests substantial political commitment and economic effort. Population-based cancer registries are critical in monitoring the elimination initiative.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie Pilleron
- Prevention and Implementation Group, Section of Early Detection and Prevention, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Citadel J Cabasag
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Silvana Luciani
- Unit of Non-communicable Diseases, Violence and Injuries Prevention, PAHO, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, USA
| | - Maribel Almonte
- Prevention and Implementation Group, Section of Early Detection and Prevention, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Marion Piñeros
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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16
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Cabasag CJ, Butler J, Arnold M, Rutherford M, Bardot A, Ferlay J, Morgan E, Møller B, Gavin A, Norell CH, Harrison S, Saint-Jacques N, Eden M, Rous B, Nordin A, Hanna L, Kwon J, Cohen PA, Altman AD, Shack L, Kozie S, Engholm G, De P, Sykes P, Porter G, Ferguson S, Walsh P, Trevithick R, Tervonen H, O'Connell D, Bray F, Soerjomataram I. Exploring variations in ovarian cancer survival by age and stage (ICBP SurvMark-2): A population-based study. Gynecol Oncol 2020; 157:234-244. [PMID: 32005583 DOI: 10.1016/j.ygyno.2019.12.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2019] [Revised: 12/24/2019] [Accepted: 12/30/2019] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The study aims to evaluate the differences in ovarian cancer survival by age and stage at diagnosis within and across seven high-income countries. METHODS We analyzed data from 58,161 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer during 2010-2014, followed until 31 December 2015, from 21 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and United Kingdom. Comparisons of 1-year and 3-year age- and stage-specific net survival (NS) between countries were performed using the period analysis approach. RESULTS Minor variation in the stage distribution was observed between countries, with most women being diagnosed with 'distant' stage (ranging between 64% in Canada and 71% in Norway). The 3-year all-ages NS ranged from 45 to 57% with Australia (56%) and Norway (57%) demonstrating the highest survival. The proportion of women with 'distant' stage was highest for those aged 65-74 and 75-99 years and varied markedly between countries (range:72-80% and 77-87%, respectively). The oldest age group had the lowest 3-year age-specific survival (20-34%), and women aged 65-74 exhibited the widest variation across countries (3-year NS range: 40-60%). Differences in survival between countries were particularly stark for the oldest age group with 'distant' stage (3-year NS range: 12% in Ireland to 24% in Norway). CONCLUSIONS International variations in ovarian cancer survival by stage exist with the largest differences observed in the oldest age group with advanced disease. This finding endorses further research investigating international differences in access to and quality of treatment, and prevalence of comorbid conditions particularly in older women with advanced disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France.
| | - John Butler
- Royal Marsden Hospital, Fulham Road, London SW3 6JJ, England, UK
| | - Melina Arnold
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Mark Rutherford
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France; Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
| | - Aude Bardot
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Eileen Morgan
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France; Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
| | - Bjørn Møller
- Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-based Cancer Research, P.O. Box 5313, Majorstuen, 0304 Oslo, Norway
| | - Anna Gavin
- Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
| | - Charles H Norell
- Policy & Information Directorate, Cancer Research UK, London, England, UK
| | - Samantha Harrison
- Policy & Information Directorate, Cancer Research UK, London, England, UK
| | - Nathalie Saint-Jacques
- Nova Scotia Health Authority Cancer Care Program, Registry & Analytics, 1276 South Street, Halifax B3H 2Y9, NS, Canada
| | - Michael Eden
- National Cancer Registrations and Analysis Service, Public Health England, Wellington House, London, UK
| | - Brian Rous
- National Cancer Registrations and Analysis Service, Public Health England, Wellington House, London, UK
| | - Andy Nordin
- East Kent Hospitals University National Health Service Foundation Trust, Kent, England, UK
| | - Louise Hanna
- Velindre University National Health Service Trust, Cardiff, Wales, UK
| | - Janice Kwon
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Division of Gynecologic Oncology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; BC Cancer, Department of Surgical Oncology, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Paul A Cohen
- University of Western Australia, Division of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia; St John of God Subiaco Hospital, Subiaco, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Alon D Altman
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3A 1R9, Canada
| | - Lorraine Shack
- Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, 2210 2nd Street, SW, Calgary, AB T2S 3C3, Canada
| | - Serena Kozie
- Registry Department, Saskatchewan Cancer Agency, Regina, SK S4W 0G3, Canada
| | - Gerda Engholm
- Danish Cancer Society, Strandboulevarden 49, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Prithwish De
- Surveillance & Cancer Registry, Cancer Care Ontario, 620 University Ave., Toronto, ON M5G 2L7, Canada
| | - Peter Sykes
- University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Geoff Porter
- Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, 145 King Street West, Suite 900, Toronto, Ontario M5H 1J8, Canada
| | - Sarah Ferguson
- Gynecologic Oncology, Princess Margaret Hospital Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Paul Walsh
- National Cancer Registry Ireland, Cork Airport Business Park, Kinsale Road, Cork T12 CDF7, Ireland
| | - Richard Trevithick
- Western Australia Cancer and Palliative Care Network Policy Unit, Health Networks Branch, Department of Health, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Hanna Tervonen
- Cancer Institute NSW, PO Box 41, Alexandria NSW 1435, Australia
| | - Dianne O'Connell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
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17
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Cabasag CJ, Arnold M, Butler J, Inoue M, Trabert B, Webb PM, Bray F, Soerjomataram I. The influence of birth cohort and calendar period on global trends in ovarian cancer incidence. Int J Cancer 2020; 146:749-758. [PMID: 30968402 PMCID: PMC6786921 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2019] [Accepted: 03/27/2019] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
Ovarian cancer is the eighth most common cancer in women worldwide and incidence rates vary markedly by world region. Our study provides a comprehensive overview of ovarian cancer incidence trends globally, examining the influence of birth cohort and period of diagnosis on changing risk. We presented current patterns and trends of ovarian cancer incidence until 2012 using data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Contents. The incidence of ovarian cancer is highest in northern and eastern European countries and in northern America. Declining trends were observed in most countries with the exception of a few central and eastern Asian countries. Marked declines were seen in Europe and North America for women aged 50-74 where rates have declined up to 2.4% (95% CI: -3.9, -0.9) annually in Denmark (DNK) over the last decade. Additionally, declines in the incidence rate ratio (IRR) were observed for generations born after the 1930s, with an additional strong period effect seen around 2000 in United States and DNK. In contrast, IRRs increased among younger generations born after the 1950s in Japan and Belarus. Overall, the favorable trends in ovarian cancer incidence is likely due to the increase use of oral contraceptive pills, and changes in the prevalence of other reproductive risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer over the years studied. Changes in disease classifications and cancer registry practices may also partially contribute to the variation in ovarian cancer incidence rates. Thus, continuous cancer surveillance is essential to detect the shifting patterns of ovarian cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon, France
| | - John Butler
- Royal Marsden Hospital, Fulham Road, London SW3 6JJ, England, UK; Cancer Research UK, Angel Building, 407 St John Street, London EC1 V 4AD, England, UK
| | - Manami Inoue
- Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Center for Public Health Science, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Britton Trabert
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD, 20892, USA
| | - Penelope M Webb
- QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Locked Bag 2000 Royal Brisbane Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland 4029, Australia; School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Public Health Building, Corner of Herston Road & Wyndham Street, Herston, Queensland 4006, Australia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon, France
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18
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Araghi M, Soerjomataram I, Bardot A, Ferlay J, Cabasag CJ, Morrison DS, De P, Tervonen H, Walsh PM, Bucher O, Engholm G, Jackson C, McClure C, Woods RR, Saint-Jacques N, Morgan E, Ransom D, Thursfield V, Møller B, Leonfellner S, Guren MG, Bray F, Arnold M. Changes in colorectal cancer incidence in seven high-income countries: a population-based study. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2019; 4:511-518. [PMID: 31105047 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(19)30147-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 222] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2019] [Revised: 03/14/2019] [Accepted: 03/15/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The overall incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in many high-income countries, yet analyses in the USA and other high-income countries such as Australia, Canada, and Norway have suggested increasing incidences among adults younger than 50 years. We aimed to examine longitudinal and generational changes in the incidence of colon and rectal cancer in seven high-income countries. METHODS We obtained data for the incidence of colon and rectal cancer from 21 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Ireland, and the UK for the earliest available year until 2014. We used age-period-cohort modelling to assess trends in incidence by age group, period, and birth cohort. We stratified cases by tumour subsite according to the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases. Age-standardised incidences were calculated on the basis of the world standard population. FINDINGS An overall decline or stabilisation in the incidence of colon and rectal cancer was noted in all studied countries. In the most recent 10-year period for which data were available, however, significant increases were noted in the incidence of colon cancer in people younger than 50 years in Denmark (by 3·1%), New Zealand (2·9%), Australia (2·9%), and the UK (1·8%). Significant increases in the incidence of rectal cancer were also noted in this age group in Canada (by 3·4%), Australia (2·6%), and the UK (1·4%). Contemporaneously, in people aged 50-74 years, the incidence of colon cancer decreased significantly in Australia (by 1·6%), Canada (1·9%), and New Zealand (3·4%) and of rectal cancer in Australia (2·4%), Canada (1·2%), and the UK (1·2%). Increases in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years were mainly driven by increases in distal (left) tumours of the colon. In all countries, we noted non-linear cohort effects, which were more pronounced for rectal than for colon cancer. INTERPRETATION We noted a substantial increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years in some of the countries in this study. Future studies are needed to establish the root causes of this rising incidence to enable the development of potential preventive and early-detection strategies. FUNDING Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, the Cancer Society of New Zealand, NHS England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Wales Cancer Network.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marzieh Araghi
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Aude Bardot
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Citadel J Cabasag
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - David S Morrison
- Scottish Cancer Registry, Information Services Division, National Health Service National Services Scotland, South Gyle, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Prithwish De
- Analytics and Informatics, Cancer Care Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Hanna Tervonen
- Cancer Institute New South Wales, Alexandria, NSW, Australia
| | | | - Oliver Bucher
- Department of Epidemiology and Cancer Registry, Cancercare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | | | | | - Carol McClure
- Prince Edward Island Cancer Registry, Charlottetown, PE, Canada
| | | | | | - Eileen Morgan
- Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland
| | - David Ransom
- Western Australia Cancer and Palliative Care Network Policy Unit Health Networks Branch, Department of Health, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Vicky Thursfield
- Victorian Cancer Registry, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Bjørn Møller
- Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Suzanne Leonfellner
- NB Cancer Network, Department of Health, Province of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada
| | - Marianne G Guren
- Department of Oncology and K G Jebsen Colorectal Cancer Research Center, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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