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Wéber A, Vignat J, Shah R, Morgan E, Laversanne M, Nagy P, Kenessey I, Znaor A. Global burden of bladder cancer mortality in 2020 and 2040 according to GLOBOCAN estimates. World J Urol 2024; 42:237. [PMID: 38625417 PMCID: PMC11021283 DOI: 10.1007/s00345-024-04949-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2024] [Indexed: 04/17/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In 2020, bladder cancer (BC) was the seventh most prevalent cancer in the world, with 5-year prevalence of more than 1.7 million cases. Due to the main risk factors-smoking and chemical exposures-associated with BC, it is considered a largely preventable and avoidable cancer. An overview of BC mortality can allow an insight not only into the prevalence of global risk factors, but also into the varying efficiency of healthcare systems worldwide. For this purpose, this study analyzes the national mortality estimates for 2020 and projected future trends up to 2040. MATERIALS AND METHODS Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years of BC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, operated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Mortality rates were stratified according to sex and Human Development Index (HDI). BC deaths were projected up to 2040 on the basis of demographic changes, alongside different scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing mortality rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS In 2020, nearly three times more men died from BC than women, with more than 210,000 deaths in both sexes combined, worldwide. Regardless of gender, more than half of the total BC deaths were from countries with a very high HDI. According to our projections, while the number of deaths for men can only increase up to 54% (from 159 to around 163-245 thousand), for women it is projected to increase two- to three-fold (from 50 to around 119-176 thousand) by 2040. The burden of BC mortality in countries with a very high HDI versus high HDI appears to converge by 2040 for both sexes. CONCLUSION Opposite mortality trends by gender highlight the urgent need for immediate interventions to expand anti-tobacco strategies, especially for women. The implementation of more strict occupational health and safety regulations could also prevent exposures associated with BC. Improving the ability to detect BC earlier and access to treatment can have a significant positive impact on reducing mortality rates, minimizing economic costs, and enhancing the quality of life for patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- András Wéber
- Hungarian National Cancer Registry and National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary.
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Richa Shah
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Péter Nagy
- Department of Molecular Immunology and Toxicology and the National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
- Department of Anatomy and Histology, HUN-REN-UVMB Laboratory of Redox Biology Research Group, University of Veterinary Medicine, Budapest, Hungary
- Chemistry Institute, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - István Kenessey
- Hungarian National Cancer Registry and National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
- Department of Pathology, Forensic and Insurance Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Ariana Znaor
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Bray F, Laversanne M, Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A. Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2024. [PMID: 38572751 DOI: 10.3322/caac.21834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2024] [Accepted: 02/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/05/2024] Open
Abstract
This article presents global cancer statistics by world region for the year 2022 based on updated estimates from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). There were close to 20 million new cases of cancer in the year 2022 (including nonmelanoma skin cancers [NMSCs]) alongside 9.7 million deaths from cancer (including NMSC). The estimates suggest that approximately one in five men or women develop cancer in a lifetime, whereas around one in nine men and one in 12 women die from it. Lung cancer was the most frequently diagnosed cancer in 2022, responsible for almost 2.5 million new cases, or one in eight cancers worldwide (12.4% of all cancers globally), followed by cancers of the female breast (11.6%), colorectum (9.6%), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (4.9%). Lung cancer was also the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18.7%), followed by colorectal (9.3%), liver (7.8%), female breast (6.9%), and stomach (6.8%) cancers. Breast cancer and lung cancer were the most frequent cancers in women and men, respectively (both cases and deaths). Incidence rates (including NMSC) varied from four-fold to five-fold across world regions, from over 500 in Australia/New Zealand (507.9 per 100,000) to under 100 in Western Africa (97.1 per 100,000) among men, and from over 400 in Australia/New Zealand (410.5 per 100,000) to close to 100 in South-Central Asia (103.3 per 100,000) among women. The authors examine the geographic variability across 20 world regions for the 10 leading cancer types, discussing recent trends, the underlying determinants, and the prospects for global cancer prevention and control. With demographics-based predictions indicating that the number of new cases of cancer will reach 35 million by 2050, investments in prevention, including the targeting of key risk factors for cancer (including smoking, overweight and obesity, and infection), could avert millions of future cancer diagnoses and save many lives worldwide, bringing huge economic as well as societal dividends to countries over the forthcoming decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | | | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
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Wéber A, Laversanne M, Nagy P, Kenessey I, Soerjomataram I, Bray F. Gains in life expectancy from decreasing cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality - an analysis of 28 European countries 1995-2019. Eur J Epidemiol 2023; 38:1141-1152. [PMID: 37676425 PMCID: PMC10663201 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-01039-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Life expectancy (LE) is an indicator of societal progress among rapidly aging populations. In recent decades, the displacement of deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer have been key drivers in further extending LE on the continent, though improvements vary markedly by country, sex, and over time. This study provides a comparative overview of the age-specific contributions of CVD and cancer to increasing LE in the 27 European Union member states, plus the U.K. METHODS Cause-by-age decompositions of national changes in LE were conducted for the years 1995-1999 and 2015-2019 based on the standard approach of multiple decrement life tables to quantify the relative impact over time. The contributions of CVD and cancer mortality changes to differences in LE were computed by sex and age for each of the 28 countries. We examine the difference between the member states before 2004 ("founding countries") and those which accessed the EU after 2004 ("A10 countries"). RESULTS Among men, declines in CVD mortality in the founding countries of the EU were larger contributors to increasing LE over the last decades than malignant neoplasms: 2.26 years were gained by CVD declines versus 1.07 years for cancer, with 2.23 and 0.84 years gained in A10 countries, respectively. Among women in founding countries, 1.81 and 0.54 additional life years were attributable to CVD and cancer mortality declines, respectively, while in A10 countries, the corresponding values were 2.33 and 0.37 years. Lung and stomach cancer in men, and breast cancer in women were key drivers of gains in LE due to cancer overall, though rising mortality rates from lung cancer diminished the potential impact of increasing female LE in both EU founding (e.g., France, Spain, and Sweden) and A10 countries (e.g., Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia), notably among cohorts aged 55-70 years. Over the 25 years, the LE gap between the two sets of countries narrowed from 6.22 to 5.59 years in men, and from 4.03 to 3.12 years for women, with diminishing female mortality from CVD as a determinative contributor. CONCLUSION This study underscores the continued existence of an East-West divide in life expectancy across the EU27 + 1, evident on benchmarking the founding vs. A10 countries. In EU founding countries, continuous economic growth alongside improved health care, health promotion and protection policies have contributed to steady declines in mortality from chronic diseases, leading to increases in life expectancy. In contrast, less favourable mortality trends in the EU A10 countries indicate greater economic and health care challenges, and a failure to implement effective health policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- András Wéber
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
- Hungarian National Cancer Registry and National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary.
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Péter Nagy
- Department of Molecular Immunology and Toxicology and the National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
- Department of Anatomy and Histology, Laboratory of Redox Biology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Budapest, Hungary
- Chemistry Institute, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - István Kenessey
- Hungarian National Cancer Registry and National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
- Department of Pathology, Forensic and Insurance Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Sedeta E, Sung H, Laversanne M, Bray F, Jemal A. Recent Mortality Patterns and Time Trends for the Major Cancers in 47 Countries Worldwide. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2023; 32:894-905. [PMID: 37195435 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-22-1133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Revised: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 05/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most prior studies have reported cancer mortality trends across countries for specific cancer types. Herein, we examine recent patterns and trends in cancer mortality rates for the eight common forms of cancer in 47 countries across five continents (except Africa) based on the World Health Organization mortality database. METHODS Rates were age-standardized to the 1966 Segi-Doll world population, and trends in the age-standardized rates for the most recent 10 years of data were examined using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS Cancer-specific mortality rates vary substantially across countries, with rates of infection-related (cervix and stomach) and tobacco-related cancers (lung and esophagus) varying by 10-fold. Recent mortality rates for all major cancers decreased in most of the studied countries except lung cancer in females and liver cancer in males, where increasing rates were observed in most countries. Rates decreased or stabilized in all countries for lung cancer in men and stomach cancer in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS The findings reinforce the importance of implementing and strengthening resource-stratified and targeted cancer prevention and control programs in all parts of the world to further reduce or halt the rising cancer burden. IMPACT The results may inform cancer prevention and treatment strategies and in so doing, reduce the marked global cancer disparities observed today.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ephrem Sedeta
- Brookdale University Hospital Medical Center, Brooklyn, New York
| | - Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance & Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance & Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
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Wéber A, Morgan E, Vignat J, Laversanne M, Pizzato M, Rumgay H, Singh D, Nagy P, Kenessey I, Soerjomataram I, Bray F. Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e065303. [PMID: 37164477 PMCID: PMC10174019 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/12/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in 2020, responsible for almost one in five (18.0%) deaths. This paper provides an overview of the descriptive epidemiology of LC based on national mortality estimates for 2020 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and in the context of recent tobacco control policies. DESIGN AND SETTING For this descriptive study, age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of LC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database and stratified by Human Development Index (HDI). LC deaths were projected to 2040 based on demographic changes alongside scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS LC mortality rates exhibited marked variations by geography and sex. Low HDI countries, many of them within sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have low levels of mortality and an upward trend in LC deaths is predicted for both sexes until 2040 according to demographic projections, irrespective of trends in rates. In very high HDI countries, including Europe, Northern America and Australia/New Zealand, there are broadly decreasing trends in men whereas in women, rates are still increasing or reaching a plateau. CONCLUSION The current and future burden of LC in a country or region largely depends on the present trajectory of the smoking epidemic in its constituent populations, with distinct gender differences in smoking patterns, both in transitioning and transitioned countries. Further elevations in LC mortality are expected worldwide, raising important social and political questions, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- András Wéber
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Hungarian National Cancer Registry and National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Margherita Pizzato
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milano, Italy
| | - Harriet Rumgay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Deependra Singh
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Péter Nagy
- Department of Molecular Immunology and Toxicology and the National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
- Department of Anatomy and Histology, Laboratory of Redox Biology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Budapest, Hungary
- Chemistry Institute, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - István Kenessey
- Hungarian National Cancer Registry and National Tumor Biology Laboratory, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
- Department of Pathology, Forensic and Insurance Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Morgan E, Arnold M, Gini A, Lorenzoni V, Cabasag CJ, Laversanne M, Vignat J, Ferlay J, Murphy N, Bray F. Global burden of colorectal cancer in 2020 and 2040: incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN. Gut 2023; 72:338-344. [PMID: 36604116 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2022-327736] [Citation(s) in RCA: 232] [Impact Index Per Article: 232.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. The geographical and temporal burden of this cancer provides insights into risk factor prevalence and progress in cancer control strategies. We examine the current and future burden of CRC in 185 countries in 2020 and 2040. METHODS Data on CRC cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. Age-specific rates were also estimated. The predicted number of cases and deaths in 2040 were calculated based on global demographic projections by HDI. RESULTS Over 1.9 million new CRC cases and 930 000 deaths were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were highest in Australia/ New Zealand and European regions (40.6 per 100 000, males) and lowest in several African regions and Southern Asia (4.4 per 100 000, females). Similar patterns were observed for mortality rates, with the highest observed in Eastern Europe (20.2 per 100 000, males) and the lowest in Southern Asia (2.5 per 100 000, females). The burden of CRC is projected to increase to 3.2 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths by 2040 with most cases predicted to occur in high or very high HDI countries. CONCLUSIONS CRC is a highly frequent cancer worldwide, and largely preventable through changes in modifiable risk factors, alongside the detection and removal of precancerous lesions. With increasing rates in transitioning countries and younger adults, there is a pressing need to better understand and act on findings to avert future cases and deaths from the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - A Gini
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - V Lorenzoni
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Institute of Management, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy
| | - C J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Neil Murphy
- Nutrition and Metabolism Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Arnold M, Morgan E, Rumgay H, Mafra A, Singh D, Laversanne M, Vignat J, Gralow JR, Cardoso F, Siesling S, Soerjomataram I. Current and future burden of breast cancer: Global statistics for 2020 and 2040. Breast 2022; 66:15-23. [PMID: 36084384 PMCID: PMC9465273 DOI: 10.1016/j.breast.2022.08.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 442] [Impact Index Per Article: 221.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Revised: 08/26/2022] [Accepted: 08/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040. METHODS Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040. RESULTS Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone. CONCLUSION Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melina Arnold
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Harriet Rumgay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Allini Mafra
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Deependra Singh
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Julie R Gralow
- American Society of Clinical Oncology, Alexandria VA, USA
| | - Fatima Cardoso
- Breast Unit, Champalimaud Clinical Center/Champalimaud Foundation, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Sabine Siesling
- Department of Research and Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL), Utrecht, Netherlands; Department of Health Technology and Services Research, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands
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Lorenzoni V, Chaturvedi AK, Vignat J, Laversanne M, Bray F, Vaccarella S. The Current Burden of Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Global Assessment Based on GLOBOCAN 2020. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2022; 31:2054-2062. [PMID: 36173880 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-22-0642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 08/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is a complex disease whose etiologies, either related to risk factors such as smoking or alcohol, or linked to HPV infection, are believed to be responsible for wide gender and geographical variability. This study depicts the current burden of OPC worldwide. METHODS Estimated OPC new cases, deaths, age-standardized rates (ASR) for both incidence and mortality in 2020 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database for each country and across 20 UN-defined world regions by sex. The incidence-to-mortality ratio (IMR) was also estimated from ASR. RESULTS Worldwide, 98,400 new cases and 48,100 OPC deaths were estimated in 2020, with ASR of 1.1 and 0.51 per 100,000 for incidence and mortality, respectively. ASR for both incidence and mortality were approximately four times higher in men and varied greatly across geographical regions and countries within the same region. Higher incidence was estimated in Europe, North-America, Australia, and New Zealand. Mortality was the highest in Central-East Europe, Western Europe, Melanesia, South-Central Asia, and the Caribbean. South-Central Asia, most African areas, and Central America exhibited the lowest IMR values, whereas North-America, Australia, New Zealand, and North-Europe had the highest. CONCLUSIONS The marked geographical and gender variability in OPC incidence and mortality is likely to reflect the distribution of risk factors and the diverse prevalence of HPV-negative and HPV-positive cases. IMPACT Findings are likely to drive future research, support the development of targeted strategies to counteract disease burden, establish priorities for prevention and treatment programs, and address inequality in access to services.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Anil K Chaturvedi
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Salvatore Vaccarella
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Cabasag CJ, Fagan PJ, Ferlay J, Vignat J, Laversanne M, Liu L, van der Aa MA, Bray F, Soerjomataram I. Ovarian cancer today and tomorrow: A global assessment by world region and Human Development Index using GLOBOCAN 2020. Int J Cancer 2022; 151:1535-1541. [PMID: 35322413 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2021] [Revised: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Ovarian cancer remains to have relatively poor prognosis particularly in low-resourced settings. It is therefore important to continually examine the burden of ovarian cancer to identify areas of disparities. Our study aims to provide an overview of the global burden of ovarian cancer using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates by country, world region, and Human Development Index (HDI) levels, as well as the predicted future burden by the year 2040 by HDI. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for ovarian cancer in 185 countries were calculated by country, world region, and for the four-tier HDI. The number of new cases and deaths were projected for the year 2040 based on demographic projections by HDI category. Approximately 314 000 new ovarian cancer cases and 207 000 deaths occurred in 2020. There were marked geographic variations in incidence rates, with the highest rates observed in European countries with very high HDI and low rates were found in African countries within the lowest HDI group. Comparable mortality rates were observed across the four-tier HDI. Relative to 2020 estimates, our projection for 2040 indicates approximately 96% and 100% increase in new ovarian cancer cases and deaths, respectively, among low HDI countries compared to 19% and 28% in very high HDI countries. Our study highlights the disproportionate current and future burden of ovarian cancer in countries with lower HDI levels, calling for global action to reduce the burden and inequality of ovarian cancer in access to quality cancer care and treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Paula J Fagan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Lihua Liu
- Norris Comprehensive Cancer Center, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Maaike A van der Aa
- Department of Research & Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Mafra A, Laversanne M, Gospodarowicz M, Klinger P, De Paula Silva N, Piñeros M, Steliarova-Foucher E, Bray F, Znaor A. Global patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in 2020. Int J Cancer 2022; 151:1474-1481. [PMID: 35695282 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2022] [Revised: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
We evaluated the global patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in 2020 using the estimates of NHL incidence and mortality in 185 countries that are part of the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). As well as new cases and deaths of NHL, corresponding age-standardized (world) rates (ASR) of incidence and mortality per 100 000 person-years were derived by country and world region. In 2020, an estimated 544 000 new cases of NHL were diagnosed worldwide, and approximately 260 000 people died from the disease. Eastern Asia accounted for a quarter (24.9%) of all cases, followed by Northern America (15.1%) and South-Central Asia (9.7%). Incidence rates were higher in men than in women, with similar geographical patterns. While the incidence rates were highest in Australia and New Zealand, Northern America, Northern Europe and Western Europe (>10/100 000 for both sexes combined), the highest mortality rates (>3/100 000) were found in regions in Africa, Western Asia and Oceania. The large variations and the disproportionately higher mortality in low- and middle-income countries can be related to the underlying prevalence and distribution of risk factors, and to the level of access to diagnostic and treatment facilities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allini Mafra
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mary Gospodarowicz
- Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Paulo Klinger
- Department of Hematology and Cell Therapy, Hospital das Clínicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Neimar De Paula Silva
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Marion Piñeros
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ariana Znaor
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Morgan E, Soerjomataram I, Rumgay H, Coleman HG, Thrift AP, Vignat J, Laversanne M, Ferlay J, Arnold M. The Global Landscape of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Mortality in 2020 and Projections to 2040: New Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2020. Gastroenterology 2022; 163:649-658.e2. [PMID: 35671803 DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2022.05.054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 185] [Impact Index Per Article: 92.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2021] [Revised: 05/18/2022] [Accepted: 05/30/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The aim of this study was to provide an overview of the burden of esophageal cancer in 185 countries in 2020 and projections for the year 2040. METHODS Estimates of esophageal cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated overall, by sex, histologic subtype (adenocarcinoma [AC] and squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]), country, and level of human development for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on global demographic projections. RESULTS Globally, there were an estimated 604,100 new cases of, and 544,100 deaths from, esophageal cancer in 2020, corresponding to age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 6.3 and 5.6 per 100,000, respectively. Most cases were SCCs (85% [512,500 cases]) and 14% (85,700 cases) were ACs. Incidence and mortality rates were 2- to 3-fold higher in male (9.3 and 8.2, respectively) compared with female (3.6 and 3.2, respectively) individuals. Global variations in incidence and mortality were observed across countries and world regions; the highest rates occurred in Eastern Asia and Southern and Eastern Africa and the lowest occurred in Western Africa and Central America regions. If rates remain stable, 957,000 new cases (141,300 AC cases and 806,000 SCC cases) and 880,000 deaths from esophageal cancer are expected in 2040. CONCLUSIONS These updated estimates of the global burden of esophageal cancer represent an important baseline for setting priorities in policy making and developing and accelerating cancer control initiatives to reduce the current and projected burden. Although primary prevention remains key, screening and early detection represent important components of esophageal cancer control in high-risk populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | | | - Harriet Rumgay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Helen G Coleman
- The Patrick G. Johnston Centre for Cancer Research, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK; Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Aaron P Thrift
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; Dan L. Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Jérôme Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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12
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Znaor A, Skakkebaek NE, Rajpert-De Meyts E, Kuliš T, Laversanne M, Gurney J, Sarfati D, McGlynn KA, Bray F. Global patterns in testicular cancer incidence and mortality in 2020. Int J Cancer 2022; 151:692-698. [PMID: 35277970 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33999] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2021] [Revised: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
With 74 500 new cases worldwide in 2020, testicular cancer ranks as the 20th leading cancer type, but is the most common cancer in young men of European ancestry. While testicular cancer incidence has been rising in many populations, mortality trends, at least those in high-income settings, have been in decline since the 1970s following the introduction of platinum-based chemotherapy. To examine current incidence and mortality patterns, we extracted the new cases of, and deaths from cancers of the testis from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. In 2020, testicular cancer was the most common cancer in men aged 15 to 44 in 62 countries worldwide. Incidence rates were highest in West-, North- and South-Europe and Oceania (age-standardised rate, ASR ≥7/100 000), followed by North America (5.6/100 000 and lowest (<2/100 000) in Asia and Africa. The mortality rates were highest in Central and South America (0.84 and 0.54 per 100 000, respectively), followed by Eastern and Southern Europe, and Western and Southern Africa. The lowest mortality rates were in Northern Europe, Northern Africa and Eastern Asia (0.16, 0.14, 0.9 per 100 000, respectively). At the country level, incidence rates varied over 100-fold, from 10/100 000 in Norway, Slovenia, Denmark and Germany to ≤0.10/100 000 in Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Lesotho. Mortality rates were highest in Fiji, Argentina and Mexico. Our results indicate a higher mortality burden in countries undergoing economic transitions and reinforce the need for more equitable access to testicular cancer diagnosis and treatment globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ariana Znaor
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Niels Erik Skakkebaek
- Department of Growth & Reproduction, Copenhagen University Hospital (Ringshospitalet), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ewa Rajpert-De Meyts
- Department of Growth & Reproduction, Copenhagen University Hospital (Ringshospitalet), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Tomislav Kuliš
- Department of Urology, University Hospital Centre Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jason Gurney
- Department of Urology, University Hospital Centre Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Diana Sarfati
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Katherine A McGlynn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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13
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Piñeros M, Laversanne M, Barrios E, Cancela MDC, de Vries E, Pardo C, Bray F. An updated profile of the cancer burden, patterns and trends in Latin America and the Caribbean. Lancet Reg Health Am 2022; 13:None. [PMID: 36189115 PMCID: PMC9483035 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
Background Cancer is a leading cause of disease and death in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Contemporary data on the cancer burden aims to inform effective cancer policies; this article provides an update and benchmarking of national cancer incidence and mortality estimates for the year 2020, alongside recent mortality trends in the region. Methods The number of new cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and mortality data over time from IARC's cancer mortality database, New cancer cases, deaths and corresponding age-standardized rates per 100,000 person-years are presented. Random fluctuations in mortality trends by country, sex and cancer site were smoothed using LOWESS regression. Findings An estimated total of 1.5 million new cancer cases and 700,000 deaths occur annually in LAC, with corresponding incidence and mortality rates of 186.5 and 86.6 per 100,000. The most common cancers in 2020 were prostate (15%), breast (14%), colorectal (9%), lung (7%) and stomach (5%). Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death (12%), though rates varied substantially between countries. The mortality trends of infectious-related cancers tended to decline in most countries, while rates of cancer types linked to westernization were mainly increasing. Assuming rates remain unchanged, the cancer burden in LAC will increase by 67% reaching 2.4 million new cases annually by 2040. Interpretation The cancer patterns reflect important underlying sociodemographic changes occurring over the last decades. With an increasing burden anticipated over the next decades in this region, there is a need to plan oncological service provision accordingly. Funding No external funds received.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marion Piñeros
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Enrique Barrios
- National Cancer Registry, Honorary Commission for the Fight against Cancer, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | | | - Esther de Vries
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Constanza Pardo
- Cancer Surveillance Group, National Cancer Institute, INC Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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14
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Cabasag CJ, Ferlay J, Laversanne M, Vignat J, Weber A, Soerjomataram I, Bray F. Pancreatic cancer: an increasing global public health concern. Gut 2022; 71:1686-1687. [PMID: 34686577 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2021-326311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Accepted: 10/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Citadel J Cabasag
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Andras Weber
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
- Hungarian National Cancer Registry, National Institute of Oncology, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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15
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Arnold M, Singh D, Laversanne M, Vignat J, Vaccarella S, Meheus F, Cust AE, de Vries E, Whiteman DC, Bray F. Global Burden of Cutaneous Melanoma in 2020 and Projections to 2040. JAMA Dermatol 2022; 158:495-503. [PMID: 35353115 PMCID: PMC8968696 DOI: 10.1001/jamadermatol.2022.0160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 215] [Impact Index Per Article: 107.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/16/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Importance Despite many cases being preventable, cutaneous melanoma remains the most serious skin cancer worldwide. Understanding the scale and profile of the disease is vital to concentrate and reinforce global prevention efforts. Objective To examine global patterns of cutaneous melanoma in 2020 and to provide projected estimates of cases and deaths by 2040. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based study used the GLOBOCAN 2020 database for global epidemiological assessment of new cases and deaths due to invasive melanoma. Main Outcomes and Measures Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 person-years by country, world region, and 4-tier level of human development. Estimated numbers of cases and deaths were calculated for the year 2040. Results A worldwide total of 325 000 new melanoma cases (174 000 males, 151 000 females) and 57 000 deaths (32 000 males, 25 000 females) was estimated for 2020. Large geographic variations existed across countries and world regions, with the highest incidence rates among males (42 per 100 000 person-years) and females (31 per 100 000 person-years) observed in Australia/New Zealand, followed by Western Europe (19 per 100 000 person-years for males and females), North America (18 per 100 000 person-years for males, 14 per 100 000 person-years for females), and Northern Europe (17 per 100 000 person-years for males, 18 per 100 000 person-years for females). Melanoma continued to be rare in most African and Asian countries, with incidence rates commonly less than 1 per 100 000 person-years. Mortality rates peaked at 5 per 100 000 person-years in New Zealand, and geographic variations were less pronounced than for incidence. Melanoma was more frequent among males than females in most world regions. If 2020 rates continue, the burden from melanoma is estimated to increase to 510 000 new cases (a roughly 50% increase) and to 96 000 deaths (a 68% increase) by 2040. Conclusions and Relevance This epidemiological assessment suggests that melanoma remains an important challenge to cancer control and public health globally, especially in fair-skinned populations of European descent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melina Arnold
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Deependra Singh
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jerome Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Salvatore Vaccarella
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Filip Meheus
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Anne E. Cust
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney with Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Melanoma Institute Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Esther de Vries
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogota, Colombia
| | - David C. Whiteman
- Cancer Control Group, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, Queensland, Australia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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16
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Morgan E, Arnold M, Camargo MC, Gini A, Kunzmann AT, Matsuda T, Meheus F, Verhoeven RH, Vignat J, Laversanne M, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I. The current and future incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in 185 countries, 2020-40: A population-based modelling study. EClinicalMedicine 2022; 47:101404. [PMID: 35497064 PMCID: PMC9046108 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 191] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2021] [Revised: 03/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Background To examine global patterns of gastric cancer in 2020 and the projected burden in 2040. Methods Data on primary gastric cancer were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and level of human development index (HDI) for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on demographic projections. Findings In total, ∼1.1 million new cases and 770,000 deaths of gastric cancer were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were on average 2-fold higher in males than females (15.8 and 7.0 per 100,000, respectively) with variation across countries. Highest incidence rates were observed in Eastern Asia for both males and females (32.5 and 13.2, respectively); males residing in Japan (48.1), Mongolia (47.2) and Korea (39.7) had the highest rates in the world. Incidence was lowest in Africa with incidence rates < 5 per 100,000. Highest mortality rates were observed in Eastern Asia for both males (21.1) and females (8.8). A lower share of deaths was observed in very high HDI countries compared to medium and low HDI countries. The annual burden of gastric cancer is predicted to increase to ∼1.8 million new cases and ∼1.3 million deaths by 2040. Interpretation These estimates of the global burden of gastric cancer pinpoint countries and regions of high incidence and mortality in need of cancer control initiatives. Primary prevention through eradication of H. pylori and behavioural changes such as reducing salt intake, smoking, obesity, and alcohol, remains key in stomach cancer control. Funding No direct funding was received. All authors had access to the included study data and all authors agreed with the final decision to submit for publication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eileen Morgan
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - M. Constanza Camargo
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States
| | - Andrea Gini
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Andrew T. Kunzmann
- Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom
| | - Tomohiro Matsuda
- National Cancer Registry Section, Center for Cancer Registries, Center for Cancer Control and Information Services National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Filip Meheus
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Rob H.A. Verhoeven
- Department of Research and Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation, Utrecht, the Netherland
- Department of Medical Oncology, Amsterdam UMC, Location AMC, Amsterdam, the Netherland
| | - Jérôme Vignat
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon 69372 CEDEX 08, France
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17
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Pizzato M, Li M, Vignat J, Laversanne M, Singh D, La Vecchia C, Vaccarella S. The epidemiological landscape of thyroid cancer worldwide: GLOBOCAN estimates for incidence and mortality rates in 2020. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2022; 10:264-272. [PMID: 35271818 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(22)00035-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 145] [Impact Index Per Article: 72.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2021] [Revised: 01/18/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Thyroid cancer incidence rates have increased in many countries and settings; however, mortality rates have remained stable at lower rates. This epidemiological pattern has been largely attributed to an overdiagnosis effect. Timely evidence for the global epidemiological status is necessary to identify the magnitude of this problem and the areas mostly affected by it. We therefore aimed to provide an up-to-date assessment on the global distribution of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates in 2020. METHODS We extracted age-standardised incidence and mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of thyroid cancer as defined by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology 10th Revision (code C73), for 185 countries or territories by sex and 18 age groups (ie, 0-4, 5-9, …, 80-84, and ≥85 years) from the GLOBOCAN database. Both incidence and mortality estimates were presented by country and aggregated across the 20 UN-defined world regions and according to the UN's four-tier Human Development Index (ie, low, medium, high, and very high) in 2020. FINDINGS Globally, in 2020, the age-standardised incidence rates of thyroid cancer were 10·1 per 100 000 women and 3·1 per 100 000 men, and age-standardised mortality rates were 0·5 per 100 000 women and 0·3 per 100 000 men. In both sexes, incidence rates were five times higher in high and very high Human Development Index countries than in low and medium Human Development Index countries, whereas mortality rates were relatively similar across different settings. Incidence rates in women differed by more than 15 times across world regions, with the highest incidence rates being in the Federated States of Micronesia and French Polynesia (18·5 per 100 000 women), North America (18·4 per 100 000), and east Asia (17·8 per 100 000, with South Korea reaching 45 per 100 000). Mortality rates were less than one per 100 000 in most countries and in both sexes. South Korea had the highest incidence-to-mortality rate ratio in both sexes, followed by Cyprus and Canada. INTERPRETATION The current thyroid cancer epidemiological landscape is strongly suggestive of a large effect of overdiagnosis in many countries and settings worldwide, confirming the relevance of thyroid cancer overdiagnosis as a global public health problem. FUNDING None.
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Affiliation(s)
- Margherita Pizzato
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Mengmeng Li
- Department of Cancer Prevention, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jerome Vignat
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Carlo La Vecchia
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
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18
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Znaor A, Corbex M, Cao B, Laversanne M, Ryzhov A, Smelov V, Bray F. Progress in reducing premature mortality from cancer and cardiovascular disease in the former Soviet Union, 2000-19. Eur J Public Health 2022; 32:624-629. [PMID: 35441219 PMCID: PMC9341639 DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckac030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background A reduction in non-communicable diseases premature mortality by one-third by 2030 is one of the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG3.4). We examined the mortality profiles in the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union (NIS) and the European Union (EU) and assessed progress in reductions of premature mortality from cancer, as compared to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods We used WHO’s Global Health Estimates and GLOBOCAN 2020 to examine current mortality profiles and computed the unconditional probabilities of dying at ages 30–70 from CVD and cancer for the years 2000–19 in both sexes, using a linear extrapolation of this trend to predict whether the target of a one-third reduction, as set in 2015, would be met in 2030. Results CVD was the main cause of premature death in the NIS (43%), followed by cancer (23%), inversely from the EU with 42% cancer and 24% CVD deaths. The NIS achieved major reductions in premature CVD mortality, although the probabilities of death in 2019 remained about five times higher in the NIS compared to the EU. For cancer, mortality reductions in most NIS were quite modest, other than large declines seen in Kazakhstan (44%) and Kyrgyzstan (30%), with both on course to meet the 2030 target. Conclusions Limited progress in cancer control in the NIS calls for policy action both in terms of structural changes towards universal health coverage, and scaling up of national cancer control plans, including a shift from opportunistic to evidence-based early detection practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ariana Znaor
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Marilys Corbex
- Division of Country Health Programs, World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Bochen Cao
- Division of Data, Analytics and Delivery for Impact, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Anton Ryzhov
- Department of General Mathematics, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | - Vitaly Smelov
- Division of Country Health Programs, World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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19
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Bray F, Laversanne M, Cao B, Varghese C, Mikkelsen B, Weiderpass E, Soerjomataram I. Comparing cancer and cardiovascular disease trends in 20 middle- or high-income countries 2000-19: A pointer to national trajectories towards achieving Sustainable Development goal target 3.4. Cancer Treat Rev 2021; 100:102290. [PMID: 34536729 PMCID: PMC8533484 DOI: 10.1016/j.ctrv.2021.102290] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2021] [Revised: 09/05/2021] [Accepted: 09/07/2021] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
With the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target of a one-third reduction in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) less than a decade away, it is timely to assess national progress in reducing premature deaths from the two leading causes of mortality worldwide. We examine trends in the probability of dying ages 30-70 from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer 2000-19 in 10 middle-income (MICs) and 10 high-income (HICs) countries with high quality data. We then predict whether the SDG target will be met in each country for CVD, cancer and for the four main NCDs combined. Downward trends were more evident in HICs relative to the MICs, and for CVD relative to cancer. CVD and cancer declines ranged from 30-60% and 20-30% in HICs over the 20-year period, but progress was less uniform among the MICs. Premature deaths from cancer exceeded CVD in nine of the 10 HICs by 2000 and in all 10 by 2019; in contrast, CVD mortality exceeded cancer in all 10 MICs in 2000 and remained the leading cause in eight countries by 2019. Two of the 10 MICs (Colombia and Kazakhstan) and seven of the HICs (Australia, Chile, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia, and the U.K.) are predicted to meet the SDG NCDs target. Whether countries are on course to meet the target by 2030 reflects changing risk factor profiles and the extent to which effective preventative and medical care interventions have been implemented. In addition, lessons can be learned given people living with NCDs are more susceptible to severe COVID-19 illness and death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Bochen Cao
- Division of Data, Analytics and Delivery for Impact, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Cherian Varghese
- Division for UHC/Communicable Diseases and NCDs, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Bente Mikkelsen
- Division for UHC/Communicable Diseases and NCDs, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Office of the Director, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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20
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Duggan C, Trapani D, Ilbawi AM, Fidarova E, Laversanne M, Curigliano G, Bray F, Anderson BO. National health system characteristics, breast cancer stage at diagnosis, and breast cancer mortality: a population-based analysis. Lancet Oncol 2021; 22:1632-1642. [PMID: 34653370 DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(21)00462-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In some countries, breast cancer age-standardised mortality rates have decreased by 2-4% per year since the 1990s, but others have yet to achieve this outcome. In this study, we aimed to characterise the associations between national health system characteristics and breast cancer age-standardised mortality rate, and the degree of breast cancer downstaging correlating with national age-standardised mortality rate reductions. METHODS In this population-based study, national age-standardised mortality rate estimates for women aged 69 years or younger obtained from GLOBOCAN 2020 were correlated with a broad panel of standardised national health system data as reported in the WHO Cancer Country Profiles 2020. These health system characteristics include health expenditure, the Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index (UHC Index), dedicated funding for early detection programmes, breast cancer early detection guidelines, referral systems, cancer plans, number of dedicated public and private cancer centres per 10 000 patients with cancer, and pathology services. We tested for differences between continuous variables using the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test, and for categorical variables using the Pearson χ2 test. Simple and multiple linear regression analyses were fitted to identify associations between health system characteristics and age-standardised breast cancer mortality rates. Data on TNM stage at diagnosis were obtained from national or subnational cancer registries, supplemented by a literature review of PubMed from 2010 to 2020. Mortality trends from 1950 to 2016 were assessed using the WHO Cancer Mortality Database. The threshold for significance was set at a p value of 0·05 or less. FINDINGS 148 countries had complete health system data. The following variables were significantly higher in high-income countries than in low-income countries in unadjusted analyses: health expenditure (p=0·0002), UHC Index (p<0·0001), dedicated funding for early detection programmes (p=0·0020), breast cancer early detection guidelines (p<0·0001), breast cancer referral systems (p=0·0030), national cancer plans (p=0·014), cervical cancer early detection programmes (p=0·0010), number of dedicated public (p<0·0001) and private (p=0·027) cancer centres per 10 000 patients with cancer, and pathology services (p<0·0001). In adjusted multivariable regression analyses in 141 countries, two health system characteristics were significantly associated with lower age-standardised mortality rates: higher UHC Index levels (β=-0·12, 95% CI -0·16 to -0·08) and increasing numbers of public cancer centres (β=-0·23, -0·36 to -0·10). These findings indicate that each unit increase in the UHC Index was associated with a 0·12-unit decline in age-standardised mortality rates, and each additional public cancer centre per 10 000 patients with cancer was associated with a 0·23-unit decline in age-standardised mortality rate. Among 35 countries with available breast cancer TNM staging data, all 20 that achieved sustained mean reductions in age-standardised mortality rate of 2% or more per year for at least 3 consecutive years since 1990 had at least 60% of patients with invasive breast cancer presenting as stage I or II disease. Some countries achieved this reduction without most women having access to population-based mammographic screening. INTERPRETATION Countries with low breast cancer mortality rates are characterised by increased levels of coverage of essential health services and higher numbers of public cancer centres. Among countries achieving sustained mortality reductions, the majority of breast cancers are diagnosed at an early stage, reinforcing the value of clinical early diagnosis programmes for improving breast cancer outcomes. FUNDING None.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine Duggan
- Breast Health Global Initiative, Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Dario Trapani
- World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | | | | | | | - Giuseppe Curigliano
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
| | - Freddie Bray
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Benjamin O Anderson
- Breast Health Global Initiative, Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; Departments of Surgery and Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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21
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Bray F, Laversanne M, Weiderpass E, Soerjomataram I. The ever-increasing importance of cancer as a leading cause of premature death worldwide. Cancer 2021; 127:3029-3030. [PMID: 34086348 DOI: 10.1002/cncr.33587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 728] [Impact Index Per Article: 242.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2020] [Revised: 12/02/2020] [Accepted: 12/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
The relative importance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer as leading causes of premature death are examined in this communication. CVD and cancer are now the leading causes in 127 countries, with CVD leading in 70 countries (including Brazil and India) and cancer leading in 57 countries (including China). Such observations can be seen as part of a late phase of an epidemiologic transition, taking place in the second half of the 20th century and the first half of the present one, in which the dominance of infectious diseases is progressively superseded by noncommunicable diseases. According to present ranks and recent trends, cancer may surpass CVD as the leading cause of premature death in most countries over the course of this century. Clearly, governments must factor in these transitions in developing cancer policies for the local disease profile.
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Affiliation(s)
- Freddie Bray
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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22
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Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2021. [PMID: 33538338 DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660)] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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23
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Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2021; 71:209-249. [PMID: 33538338 DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660%' and 2*3*8=6*8 and 'nkxb'!='nkxb%] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2023] Open
Abstract
This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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24
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Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2021; 71:209-249. [PMID: 33538338 DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660" and 2*3*8=6*8 and "eluz"="eluz] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2023] Open
Abstract
This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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25
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Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2021; 71:209-249. [PMID: 33538338 DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660'||dbms_pipe.receive_message(chr(98)||chr(98)||chr(98),15)||'] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2023] Open
Abstract
This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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26
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Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2021; 71:209-249. [PMID: 33538338 DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660' and 2*3*8=6*8 and 'dh7o'='dh7o] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2023] Open
Abstract
This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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27
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Rumgay H, Arnold M, Laversanne M, Whiteman DC, Thrift AP, Wei W, Lemmens VEPP, Soerjomataram I. International Trends in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Adenocarcinoma Incidence. Am J Gastroenterol 2021; 116:1072-1076. [PMID: 33929382 DOI: 10.14309/ajg.0000000000001121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2020] [Accepted: 11/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION We aimed to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the esophagus. METHODS We estimated average annual percent change and analyzed age-period-cohort trends on population-based cancer data. RESULTS We found decreases in squamous cell carcinoma incidence in half of male populations (largest decrease in US black males [average annual percent change -7.6]) and increases in adenocarcinoma incidence in nearly a third of populations. Trends may be associated with a mix of birth cohort and period effects. DISCUSSION More complete data and evidence are needed to conclude the reasons for the observed trends (see Visual Abstract, Supplementary Digital Content 4, http://links.lww.com/AJG/B823).
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Affiliation(s)
- Harriet Rumgay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Melina Arnold
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - David C Whiteman
- QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Aaron P Thrift
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
- Dan L. Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Wenqiang Wei
- Office for Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Valery E P P Lemmens
- Department of Research & Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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28
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Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2021; 71:209-249. [PMID: 33538338 DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660'||'] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2023] Open
Abstract
This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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29
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Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2021; 71:209-249. [PMID: 33538338 DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43574] [Impact Index Per Article: 14524.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyuna Sung
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Bray F, Laversanne M, Weiderpass E, Arbyn M. Geographic and temporal variations in the incidence of vulvar and vaginal cancers. Int J Cancer 2020; 147:2764-2771. [PMID: 32410226 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2020] [Revised: 03/27/2020] [Accepted: 04/14/2020] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
Vulvar and vaginal cancers are relatively rare cancers, together responsible for less than 1% of the global cancer incidence among women in 2018. The majority of vaginal cancers and a lesser proportion of vulvar cancers are associated with HPV, with rising incidence rates of vulvar cancer observed in younger women, possibly due to an increased prevalence of high-risk HPV types. This report assesses recent international variations in the incidence rates of vulvar and vaginal cancer derived from high-quality data from population-based cancer registries in 68 countries, and further assesses time trends for selected longer-term series in eight countries (Australia, China, Colombia, India, Norway, Slovakia, the U.S., and the U.K.) over the period 1983 to 2012. We observed a 30-fold variation in the recorded incidence rates of vulvar cancer in contrast with the threefold variation for vaginal cancer. We also observed a rising incidence of vulvar cancer in Australia, Norway and the U.K., and Slovakia, with a more rapid rise in the rates seen in women aged < 60 years at diagnosis. The annual percentage change over the most recent decade varied from 1.7% in Norway to 4.1% in Slovakia. The increases are largely confined to younger women and are likely linked to generational changes in sexual behaviour (earlier age at sexual debut and increasing transmission of HPV among cohorts born 1940 to 1950 and thereafter. Vaginal cancer incidence rates, in contrast, were lower and more stable, despite the higher HPV-attributable fraction relative to vulvar cancer. Irrespective of the trends, an increasing number of women are predicted to be diagnosed worldwide with both cancer types in future decades as population ageing and growth continues. The promise of high-coverage HPV vaccination will likely counter this rising burden, but the impact may take a number of decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Office of the Director, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Marc Arbyn
- Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Belgian Cancer Centre, Brussels, Belgium
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Sangrajrang S, Laversanne M, Bausom R, Mery L, Bray F. Cancer incidence and cancer control in Bangkok, Thailand: Results from the cancer registry 2011-15 and projections to 2035. Cancer Epidemiol 2020; 67:101765. [PMID: 32585431 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2020.101765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2020] [Revised: 06/04/2020] [Accepted: 06/07/2020] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND With considerable diversity in the patterns of cancer in different regions of Thailand and between urban vs. rural areas, this report focuses on cancer incidence burden in the Bangkok Metropolis 2011-15. METHODS Incidence rates in Bangkok were derived as the mean annual number of new cancer cases per 100,000 inhabitants for the period 2011-2015 stratified by 5-year age group and sex. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated using the world standard population. RESULTS The five most frequent cancers in Bangkok correspond to close to 60 % of the total burden in both males and females. In males, cancers of the lung, liver and colorectum each comprised 14-16 % of the burden, while breast cancer was responsible for three in 10 cancers in women (or 29.4 %), with colorectal and cervical cancer ranking second and third (10.0 % and 8.5 % respectively). respectively. Under three different scenarios of trends in all-cancer incidence rates, demographic changes mean that the incidence burden will rise over the next two decades. CONCLUSIONS The critical relevance of this information in the context of the planning and evaluation of national cancer control policies in Thailand is discussed. Evidently, the Bangkok and other Thai population-based cancer registries are essential in measuring the population-level impact of tobacco control, HBV and HPV vaccination, cervical and colorectal cancer screening, and via survival estimation, the effectiveness of cancer care.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Rangsiya Bausom
- National Cancer Institute Rama VI road, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
| | - Les Mery
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
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32
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Znaor A, Skakkebaek NE, Rajpert-De Meyts E, Laversanne M, Kuliš T, Gurney J, Sarfati D, McGlynn KA, Bray F. Testicular cancer incidence predictions in Europe 2010-2035: A rising burden despite population ageing. Int J Cancer 2020; 147:820-828. [PMID: 31773729 PMCID: PMC8612086 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2019] [Revised: 10/23/2019] [Accepted: 11/12/2019] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among young men of European ancestry, with about one-third of all cases occurring in Europe. With the historically increasing trends in some high-incidence populations reported to have stabilised in recent years, we aimed to assess recent trends and predict the future testicular cancer incidence burden across Europe. We extracted testicular cancer (ICD-10 C62) incidence data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VII-XI and complemented this with data published by registries from 28 European countries. We predicted cancer incidence rates and the number of incident cases in Europe in the year 2035 using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Testicular cancer incidence rates will increase in 21 out of 28 countries over the period 2010-2035, with trends attenuating in the high-incidence populations of Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Austria. Although population ageing would be expected to reduce the number of cases, this demographic effect is outweighed by increasing risk, leading to an overall increase in the number of cases by 2035 in Europe, and by region (21, 13 and 32% in Northern, Western and Eastern Europe, respectively). Declines are however predicted in Italy and Spain, amounting to 12% less cases in 2035 in Southern Europe overall. In conclusion, the burden of testicular cancer incidence in Europe will continue to increase, particularly in historically lower-risk countries. The largest increase in the number of testicular cancer patients is predicted in Eastern Europe, where survival is lower, reinforcing the need to ensure the provision of effective treatment across Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ariana Znaor
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Niels E Skakkebaek
- Department of Growth & Reproduction, Copenhagen University Hospital (Ringshospitalet), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ewa Rajpert-De Meyts
- Department of Growth & Reproduction, Copenhagen University Hospital (Ringshospitalet), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Tomislav Kuliš
- Department of Urology, University Hospital Centre Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Jason Gurney
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Diana Sarfati
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Katherine A McGlynn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Petrick JL, Florio AA, Znaor A, Ruggieri D, Laversanne M, Alvarez CS, Ferlay J, Valery PC, Bray F, McGlynn KA. International trends in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence, 1978-2012. Int J Cancer 2020; 147:317-330. [PMID: 31597196 PMCID: PMC7470451 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32723] [Citation(s) in RCA: 265] [Impact Index Per Article: 66.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2019] [Accepted: 09/04/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Primary liver cancer, the major histology of which is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. We comprehensively examined recent international trends of primary liver cancer and HCC incidence using population-based cancer registry data. Incidence for all primary liver cancer and for HCC by calendar time and birth cohort was examined for selected countries between 1978 and 2012. For each successive 5-year period, age-standardized incidence rates were calculated from Volumes V to XI of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) series using the online electronic databases, CI5plus. Large variations persist in liver cancer incidence globally. Rates of liver cancer remain highest in Asian countries, specifically in the East and South-East, and Italy. However, rates in these high-risk countries have been decreasing in recent years. Rates in India and in most countries of Europe, the Americas and Oceania are rising. As the population seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) continues to decline, we anticipate rates of HCC in many high-risk countries will continue to decrease. Treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is likely to bring down rates further in some high-rate, as well as low-rate, countries with access to effective therapies. However, such gains in the control of liver cancer are at risk of being reversed by the growing obesity and diabetes epidemics, suggesting diabetes treatment and primary prevention of obesity will be key in reducing liver cancer in the longer-term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica L. Petrick
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD
- Slone Epidemiology Center, Boston University, Boston, MA
| | - Andrea A. Florio
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD
| | - Ariana Znaor
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Christian S. Alvarez
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | | | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Katherine A. McGlynn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD
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Florio AA, Ferlay J, Znaor A, Ruggieri D, Alvarez CS, Laversanne M, Bray F, McGlynn KA, Petrick JL. Global trends in intrahepatic and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma incidence from 1993 to 2012. Cancer 2020; 126:2666-2678. [PMID: 32129902 PMCID: PMC7323858 DOI: 10.1002/cncr.32803] [Citation(s) in RCA: 139] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2019] [Revised: 01/13/2020] [Accepted: 01/31/2020] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas (ICCs) and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas (ECCs) are highly lethal bile duct tumors. Their incidence can be difficult to estimate because of changes in cancer coding over time. No studies to date have examined their global incidence and trends with high-quality topography- and histology-specific cancer registry data. Therefore, this study examined ICC and ECC incidence with the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus database. METHODS Regional and national cancer registry data were used to estimate age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years, 95% confidence intervals, and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) for ICC in 38 countries and for ECC in 33 countries from 1993 to 2012. ICC and ECC trends were tabulated and plotted by country. Rates versus birth cohort by age were plotted, and an age-period-cohort analysis was performed to assess age and cohort incidence rate ratios. RESULTS The highest rates of ICC and ECC were in Asia, specifically South Korea (ASR for ICC, 2.80; ASR for ECC, 2.24), Thailand (ASR for ICC, 2.19; ASR for ECC, 0.71), and Japan (ASR for ICC, 0.95; ASR for ECC, 0.83). Between 1993 and 2012, incidence rates of both ICC and ECC increased in most countries. The largest ASR increases over the study period occurred in Latvia (AAPC, 20.1%) and China (AAPC, 11.1%) for ICC and in Thailand (AAPC, 8.8%) and Colombia (AAPC, 8.5%) for ECC. CONCLUSIONS In the 20 years examined, ICC and ECC incidence increased in the majority of countries worldwide. ICC and ECC incidence may continue to increase because of metabolic and infectious etiologic factors. Efforts to further elucidate risk factors contributing to these increases in incidence are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea A. Florio
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ariana Znaor
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - David Ruggieri
- Information Management Services, Inc., Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Christian S. Alvarez
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Katherine A. McGlynn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Jessica L. Petrick
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Slone Epidemiology Center, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
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Gurney JK, Florio AA, Znaor A, Ferlay J, Laversanne M, Sarfati D, Bray F, McGlynn KA. International Trends in the Incidence of Testicular Cancer: Lessons from 35 Years and 41 Countries. Eur Urol 2019; 76:615-623. [PMID: 31324498 PMCID: PMC8653517 DOI: 10.1016/j.eururo.2019.07.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 84] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2019] [Accepted: 07/02/2019] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Incidence rates of testicular cancer (TC) have been increasing in many countries since, at least, the mid-20th century without clear explanation. Examining the varying trends across countries and time provides clues to understanding the causes of TC. OBJECTIVE We have presented incidence data from 41 countries and evaluated incidence trends for the 35-yr period from 1978 to 2012. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cancer registry data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes V-XI, CI5plus, and the NORDCAN database were analysed. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Age-standardised rates of TC overall and by histological type were calculated. A joinpoint regression model of the natural log-transformed rates was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence. Age-period-cohort modelling was used to examine the effect of birth cohort on rates. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS While the highest incidence of TC remains in Northern Europe, the gap is closing between higher- and lower-incidence regions. Age-period-cohort modelling found flattening of risk among recent cohorts in Denmark and the UK, a steady increase in risk in the USA (particularly for seminomas), and an increase in risk among more recent cohorts in Costa Rica, Croatia, and Slovakia. CONCLUSIONS The gap between low- and high-incidence countries is closing due to increases in the former and stabilisation in the latter. Understanding the causes of these and other differences in incidence rates between, and within, countries may help further our understanding of the aetiology of this cancer. PATIENT SUMMARY We examined the rates of testicular cancer in different countries over time. These rates have been increasing, although the rates in high-incidence countries seem to be slowing down, while rates in low-incidence countries are catching up. These trends might help us understand what is causing testicular cancer in general.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason K Gurney
- Cancer and Chronic Conditions Research Group, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
| | - Andrea A Florio
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ariana Znaor
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Diana Sarfati
- Cancer and Chronic Conditions Research Group, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Katherine A McGlynn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
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Znaor A, Chimed T, Laversanne M, Tudev U, Sanjaajamts E, Sandagdorj T, Bray F. The public health challenge of liver cancer in Mongolia. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2018; 3:660-662. [PMID: 30215354 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(18)30243-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2018] [Revised: 07/20/2018] [Accepted: 07/23/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ariana Znaor
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 69372, France.
| | - Tuvshinjargal Chimed
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 69372, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 69372, France
| | - Undarmaa Tudev
- Department of Cancer registry-surveillance, early detection, National Cancer Center of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Erdenechimeg Sanjaajamts
- Department of Cancer registry-surveillance, early detection, National Cancer Center of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Tuvshingerel Sandagdorj
- Department of Cancer registry-surveillance, early detection, National Cancer Center of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 69372, France
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Piñeros M, Frech S, Frazier L, Laversanne M, Barnoya J, Garrido C, Gharzouzi E, Chacón A, Fuentes Alabi S, Ruiz de Campos L, Figueroa J, Dominguez R, Rojas O, Pereira R, Rivera C, Morgan DR. Advancing Reliable Data for Cancer Control in the Central America Four Region. J Glob Oncol 2018; 4:1-11. [PMID: 30241165 PMCID: PMC6180802 DOI: 10.1200/jgo.2016.008227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The Central America Four (CA-4) region, comprising Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, is the largest low- and middle-income country region in the Western Hemisphere, with over 36 million inhabitants. The CA-4 nations share a common geography, history, language, and development indices, and unified with open borders in 2006. The growing CA-4 cancer burden among the noncommunicable diseases is expected to increase 73% by 2030, which argues for a regional approach to cancer control. This has driven efforts to establish population-based cancer registries as a central component of the cancer control plans. The involvement of international and academic partners in an array of initiatives to improve cancer information and control in the CA-4 has accelerated over the past several years. Existing data underscore that the infectious cancers (cervical, stomach, and liver) are a particular burden. All four countries have committed to establishing regional population-based cancer registries and have advanced significantly in pediatric cancer registration. The challenges common to each nation include the lack of national cancer control plans and departments, competing health priorities, lack of trained personnel, and sustainability strategies. General recommendations to address these challenges are outlined. The ongoing regional, international, and academic cooperation has proven helpful and is expected to continue to be a powerful instrument to contribute to the design and implementation of long-term national cancer control plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marion Piñeros
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Silvina Frech
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Lindsay Frazier
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Joaquin Barnoya
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Claudia Garrido
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Eduardo Gharzouzi
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Andrea Chacón
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Soad Fuentes Alabi
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Lisseth Ruiz de Campos
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Jacqueline Figueroa
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Ricardo Dominguez
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Ofelia Rojas
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Rosario Pereira
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Carla Rivera
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
| | - Douglas R. Morgan
- Marion Piñeros and Mathieu Laversanne,
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Silvina
Frech, US National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; Lindsay
Frazier, Dana-Farber/Children’s Cancer Center, Boston MA;
Joaquin Barnoya and Eduardo Gharzouzi, Instituto
de Cancerologia; Claudia Garrido, Unidad Nacional Oncología
Pediátrica, Guatemala City, Guatemala; Joaquin Barnoya,
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO; Andrea
Chacón, Unidad Nacional para la Prevención y control del
Cáncer, Ministerio de Salud; Soad Fuentes Alabi, Hospital
Benjamín Bloom, Ministerio de Salud; Lisseth Ruiz de Campos,
Asociación Salvadoreña para la Prevención del Cáncer, San
Salvador, El Salvador; Jacqueline Figueroa, Unidad de Registro de
Cáncer, Secretaria de Salud, Tegucigalpa; Ricardo Dominguez,
Hospital de Occidente, Secretaria de Salud, Copán, Honduras; Ofelia
Rojas, Rosario Pereira, and Carla Rivera,
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua, León, Nicaragua; and
Douglas R. Morgan, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
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38
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Alonso R, Piñeros M, Laversanne M, Musetti C, Garau M, Barrios E, Bray F. Lung cancer incidence trends in Uruguay 1990-2014: An age-period-cohort analysis. Cancer Epidemiol 2018; 55:17-22. [PMID: 29758490 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2018.04.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2018] [Revised: 04/23/2018] [Accepted: 04/26/2018] [Indexed: 10/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Uruguay, a country with one of the highest lung cancer rates worldwide, initiated a series of comprehensive anti-smoking measures in 2005. We assess the tobacco control policies in the context of cohort-driven lung cancer incidence trends over a 25-year period, providing baseline predictions to 2035. METHODS Using data from the National Cancer Registry of Uruguay, an age-period-cohort analysis of trends 1990-2014 was performed. The NORDPRED package was used to predict the annual number of new cases of lung cancer and incidence rates up to 2035. RESULTS In men, age-standardised (world) rates declined from a peak of 165.6 in 1995 to 103.1 by 2014, translating to a 70% reduction in the risk of lung cancer in men born in 1970 relative to the early-1940s. In females, rates increased steadily from 18.3 in 1991 to 30.0 by 2014, with successive increases in risk among generations of women born 1940-1960. There is however evidence of a decline in observed rates in women born recently. Extrapolations of the trends indicate an 8% reduction in the mean number of new lung cancer cases in men by 2035, but a 69% increase in women. CONCLUSION Despite observed and predicted reductions in lung cancer incidence in Uruguayan men, rates among women are set to continue to increase, with a large rise in the annual number of female lung cancer diagnoses expected before 2035. There are signals of a diminishing risk among recent generations of women born after 1960. The current analysis provides important baseline information in assessing the future impact of the recent tobacco control initiatives in Uruguay.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rafael Alonso
- National Cancer Registry, CHLCC, Uruguay; Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Medicine, Montevideo, Uruguay.
| | - Marion Piñeros
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France
| | | | - Mariela Garau
- National Cancer Registry, CHLCC, Uruguay; Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Medicine, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Enrique Barrios
- National Cancer Registry, CHLCC, Uruguay; Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Medicine, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Freddie Bray
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France
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Pongnikorn D, Daoprasert K, Waisri N, Laversanne M, Bray F. Cancer incidence in northern Thailand: Results from six population-based cancer registries 1993-2012. Int J Cancer 2018; 142:1767-1775. [PMID: 29226335 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.31203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2017] [Revised: 11/22/2017] [Accepted: 11/27/2017] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Rapid changes in social and economic development have led to cancer becoming a major cause of national morbidity and mortality in Thailand. Cancer registries have been critical in documenting subnational cancer patterns and transitions in the country; with the establishment of six registries in northern Thailand, a comprehensive assessment of the scale and profile of cancer is now possible in the region. Cancers of the liver, lung, colorectum, breast and cervix were the major cancers 2008-2012, although variations in the profiles of cancer were observed, with a very high incidence of liver cancer seen among males in Phrae, corresponding to one in 11 men developing the disease in a lifetime. Based on data from Lampang and Chiang Mai 1993-2012, rates of lung and cervical cancer incidence have declined, while liver, colorectal and breast cancer incidence have been increasing up to 2012. A more detailed investigation of the incidence trends for specific cancer sites and subtypes at the local level are crucial to the monitoring and evaluation of the cancer control interventions implemented within the Thai national cancer control programme (NCCP). Priority should be given to extend the capacity of the new registries in northern Thailand, ensuring improvement in quality and utilization of the data to drive epidemiologic research and cancer control.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Narate Waisri
- Chiang Mai Cancer Registry, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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40
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Valery PC, Laversanne M, Clark PJ, Petrick JL, McGlynn KA, Bray F. Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide. Hepatology 2018; 67:600-611. [PMID: 28859220 PMCID: PMC5832532 DOI: 10.1002/hep.29498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 188] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2017] [Revised: 06/28/2017] [Accepted: 08/14/2017] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide and the second most common cause of cancer death. Future predictions can inform health planners and raise awareness of the need for cancer control action. We predicted the future burden of PLC in 30 countries around 2030. Incident cases of PLC (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, C22) were obtained from 30 countries for 1993-2007. We projected new PLC cases to 2030 using age-period-cohort models (NORDPRED software). Age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated by country and sex. Increases in new cases and rates of PLC are projected in both sexes. The largest increases in rates are, among men, in Norway (2.9% per annum), US whites (2.6%), and Canada (2.4%) and, among women, in the United States (blacks 4.0%), Switzerland (3.4%), and Germany (3.0%). The projected declines are in China, Japan, Singapore, and parts of Europe (e.g., Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia). A 35% increase in the number of new cases annually is expected compared to 2005. This increasing burden reflects both increasing rates (and the underlying prevalence of risk factors) and demographic changes. Japan is the only country with a predicted decline in the net number of cases and annual rates by 2030. Conclusion: Our reporting of a projected increase in PLC incidence to 2030 in 30 countries serves as a baseline for anticipated declines in the longer term through the control of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections by vaccination and treatment; however, the prospect that rising levels of obesity and its metabolic complications may lead to an increased risk of PLC that potentially offsets these gains is a concern. (Hepatology 2018;67:600-611).
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia C. Valery
- Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston QLD 4006, Brisbane, Australia
- School of Medicine, University of Queensland, 288 Herston Road, Herston, QLD, 4006, Australia
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas 69372 Lyon, France
| | - Paul J. Clark
- Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston QLD 4006, Brisbane, Australia
- School of Medicine, University of Queensland, 288 Herston Road, Herston, QLD, 4006, Australia
- Department of Gastroenterology, Princess Alexandra Hospital, 199 Ipswich Road, Woolloongabba, QLD 4102
| | - Jessica L. Petrick
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Katherine A McGlynn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas 69372 Lyon, France
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Vaccarella S, Laversanne M, Ferlay J, Bray F. Cervical cancer in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia: Regional inequalities and changing trends. Int J Cancer 2017; 141:1997-2001. [PMID: 28734013 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.30901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 84] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2017] [Revised: 07/11/2017] [Accepted: 07/13/2017] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
The vast majority (86% or 453,000 cases) of the global burden of cervical cancer occurs in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia, where one in nine new cancer cases are of the cervix. Although the disease has become rare in high-resource settings (e.g., in North America, parts of Europe, Japan) that have historically invested in effective screening programs, the patterns and trends are variable elsewhere. While favourable incidence trends have been recorded in many populations in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean in the past decades, rising rates have been observed in sub-Saharan African countries, where high quality incidence series are available. The challenge for countries heavily affected by the disease in these regions is to ensure resource-dependent programmes of screening and vaccination are implemented to transform the situation, so that accelerated declines in cervical cancer are not the preserve of high-income countries, but become the norm in all populations worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Vaccarella
- Infections and Cancer Epidemiology group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - M Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - J Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - F Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Barbaric J, Laversanne M, Znaor A. Malignant melanoma incidence trends in a Mediterranean population following socioeconomic transition and war: results of age-period-cohort analysis in Croatia, 1989-2013. Melanoma Res 2017; 27:498-502. [PMID: 28800032 DOI: 10.1097/cmr.0000000000000385] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
The aim of this study was to analyse trends of malignant melanoma incidence in Croatia for men and women of different age groups by birth cohorts and time periods, and to interpret them in the context of national socioeconomic changes over time and the possible implications for future prevention in South-Eastern European postcommunist countries with high mortality rates. We used the Croatian National Cancer Registry data to analyse incidence trends of malignant melanoma of the skin (ICD-9 code 172 and ICD-10 code C43) in men and women aged 25-79 years by age-period-cohort modelling. Over the 25-year period, the incidence was increasing by 5.0% annually in men and 4.6% in women. The age-period model provided the best fit for data in both sexes, with steeply increasing incidence rates, followed by a stabilization after the 2000s. On the cohort scale, incidence rates increased in successive generations of men, whereas in women, the risk of malignant melanoma attenuated in recent cohorts. Even if some progress has been achieved in recent years, the increasing melanoma incidence without concomitant declines in mortality would indicate a need to rekindle prevention efforts in the country taking the specific socioeconomic context into account.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jelena Barbaric
- aAndrija Stampar School of Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia bSection of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Znaor A, Laversanne M, Bray F. Less overdiagnosis of kidney cancer? an age-period-cohort analysis of incidence trends in 16 populations worldwide. Int J Cancer 2017; 141:925-932. [PMID: 28543047 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.30799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2017] [Revised: 05/02/2017] [Accepted: 05/15/2017] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
The increasing rates of kidney cancer incidence, reported in many populations globally, have been attributed both to increasing exposures to environmental risk factors, as well as increasing levels of incidental diagnosis due to widespread use of imaging. To better understand these trends, we examine long-term cancer registry data worldwide, focusing on the roles of birth cohort and calendar period, proxies for changes in risk factor prevalence and detection practice respectively. We used an augmented version of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series to analyze kidney cancer incidence rates 1978-2007 in 16 geographically representative populations worldwide by sex for ages 30-74, using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The full APC model provided the best fit to the data in most studied populations. While kidney cancer incidence rates have been increasing in successive generations born from the early twentieth century in most countries, equivalent period-specific rises were observed from the late-1970s, although these have subsequently stabilized in certain European countries (the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Finland, Spain) as well as Japan from the mid-1990s, and from the mid-2000s, in Colombia, Costa Rica and Australia. Our results indicate that the effects of both birth cohort and calendar period contribute to the international kidney cancer incidence trends. While cohort-specific increases may partly reflect the rising trends in obesity prevalence and the need for more effective primary prevention policies, the attenuations in period-specific increases (observed in 8 of the 16 populations) highlight a possible change in imaging practices that could lead to mitigation of overdiagnosis and overtreatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ariana Znaor
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Arnold M, Laversanne M, Brown LM, Devesa SS, Bray F. Predicting the Future Burden of Esophageal Cancer by Histological Subtype: International Trends in Incidence up to 2030. Am J Gastroenterol 2017; 112:1247-1255. [PMID: 28585555 DOI: 10.1038/ajg.2017.155] [Citation(s) in RCA: 237] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2016] [Accepted: 04/16/2017] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Rapid increases in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in high-income countries in the past decades have raised public health concerns. This study is the first to predict the future burden of esophageal cancer by histological subtype using international incidence data. METHODS Data on esophageal cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex, histology, and age group were extracted from 42 registries in 12 countries included in the last three volumes (VIII-X) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, contributing at least 15 years of consecutive data. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted up to 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models; the differential impact of demographic vs. risk changes on future cases were examined. RESULTS The number of new AC cases is expected to increase rapidly 2005-2030 in all studied countries as a combined result of increasing risk and changing demographics. In contrast, the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is predicted to continue decreasing in most countries. By 2030, 1 in 100 men in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are predicted to be diagnosed with EAC during their lifetime. CONCLUSIONS The burden from EAC is expected to rise dramatically across high-income countries and has already or will surpass ESCC incidence in the coming years, especially among men. Notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties in trend-based predictions and in subtype misclassification, these findings highlight an ongoing transition in the epidemiology of esophageal cancer that is highly relevant to future cancer control planning and clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melina Arnold
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Linda Morris Brown
- RTI International, Environmental and Health Sciences Unit, Biostatistics and Epidemiology Division, Rockville, Maryland, USA
| | - Susan S Devesa
- National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Biostatistics Branch, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Arnold M, Sierra MS, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global patterns and trends in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Gut 2017; 66:683-691. [PMID: 26818619 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2015-310912] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2887] [Impact Index Per Article: 412.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2015] [Revised: 11/12/2015] [Accepted: 11/13/2015] [Indexed: 12/08/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The global burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) is expected to increase by 60% to more than 2.2 million new cases and 1.1 million deaths by 2030. In this study, we aim to describe the recent CRC incidence and mortality patterns and trends linking the findings to the prospects of reducing the burden through cancer prevention and care. DESIGN Estimates of sex-specific CRC incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 37 countries using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-X and the WHO mortality database. Trends were assessed via the annual percentage change using joinpoint regression and discussed in relation to human development levels. RESULTS CRC incidence and mortality rates vary up to 10-fold worldwide, with distinct gradients across human development levels, pointing towards widening disparities and an increasing burden in countries in transition. Generally, CRC incidence and mortality rates are still rising rapidly in many low-income and middle-income countries; stabilising or decreasing trends tend to be seen in highly developed countries where rates remain among the highest in the world. CONCLUSIONS Patterns and trends in CRC incidence and mortality correlate with present human development levels and their incremental changes might reflect the adoption of more western lifestyles. Targeted resource-dependent interventions, including primary prevention in low-income, supplemented with early detection in high-income settings, are needed to reduce the number of patients with CRC in future decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melina Arnold
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mónica S Sierra
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Isabelle Soerjomataram
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance Research Program, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Chimed T, Sandagdorj T, Znaor A, Laversanne M, Tseveen B, Genden P, Bray F. Cancer incidence and cancer control in Mongolia: Results from the National Cancer Registry 2008-12. Int J Cancer 2017; 140:302-309. [PMID: 27716912 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.30463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Accepted: 09/27/2016] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Mongolia has a high burden from noncommunicable diseases, with cancer now the second leading cause of mortality. Given the paucity of situation analyses from the country, this study reports cancer data based on new cases 2008-12 from the National Cancer Registry of Mongolia covering the entire population (2.87 million). New cancer cases of 21,564 were diagnosed over the 5-year period, with a slight predominance of cases (52%) in men. Liver cancer was the leading cancer site in both sexes (ASRs of 114.7 and 74.6 per 100,000 males and females), and responsible for almost two-fifths of all cancer diagnoses, followed by cancers of stomach, lung and oesophagus in men and cervix, stomach and oesophagus in women. The cumulative risk of incidence for all cancers (27.7% and 20.8% in men and women, respectively) positions Mongolia above China (20.2% and 13.3%), below the United States (34.1% and 28.5%) and similar to Russia (26.1% and 19.1%). These figures shed light on the considerable magnitude of cancer in the country and the large fraction of cancers that can be prevented by lifestyle modifications and vaccine implementation. An expansion of activities of the cancer registry and the continued development of research are necessary steps in support of national cancer control planning in Mongolia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tuvshinjargal Chimed
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon CEDEX 08, 69372, France
| | | | - Ariana Znaor
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon CEDEX 08, 69372, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon CEDEX 08, 69372, France
| | - Badamsuren Tseveen
- Research Training and Information Department, National Cancer Center, Mongolia
| | - Purevsuren Genden
- Research Training and Information Department, National Cancer Center, Mongolia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, Lyon CEDEX 08, 69372, France
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Petrick JL, Braunlin M, Laversanne M, Valery P, Bray F, McGlynn KA. International trends in liver cancer incidence, overall and by histologic subtype, 1978-2007. Int J Cancer 2016; 139:1534-45. [PMID: 27244487 PMCID: PMC5310166 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.30211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 237] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2016] [Revised: 04/26/2016] [Accepted: 05/06/2016] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
Primary liver cancer, the most common histologic types of which are hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. While rising incidence of liver cancer in low-risk areas and decreasing incidence in some high-risk areas has been reported, trends have not been thoroughly explored by country or by histologic type. We examined liver cancer incidence overall and by histology by calendar time and birth cohort for selected countries between 1978 and 2007. For each successive 5-year period, age-standardized incidence rates were calculated from volumes V-IX of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents electronic database (CI5plus) and the newly released CI5X (volume X) database. Wide global variations persist in liver cancer incidence. Rates of liver cancer remain highest in Asian countries, specifically Eastern and South-Eastern Asian countries. While rates in most of these high-risk countries have been decreasing in recent years, rates in India and several low-risk countries of Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania have been on the rise. Liver cancer rates by histologic type tend to convey a similar temporal profile. However, in Thailand, France, and Italy, ICC rates have increased while HCC rates have declined. We expect rates in high-risk countries to continue to decrease, as the population seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) continues to decline. In low-risk countries, targeted screening and treatment of the hepatitis C virus (HCV), treatment of diabetes and primary prevention of obesity, will be key in reducing future liver cancer incidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica L. Petrick
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD
| | - Megan Braunlin
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Patricia Valery
- QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Freddie Bray
- Cancer Surveillance Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Katherine A. McGlynn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD
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Sierra MS, Soerjomataram I, Antoni S, Laversanne M, Piñeros M, de Vries E, Forman D. Cancer patterns and trends in Central and South America. Cancer Epidemiol 2016; 44 Suppl 1:S23-S42. [PMID: 27678320 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2016.07.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2016] [Revised: 07/15/2016] [Accepted: 07/21/2016] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVE Cancer burden is increasing in Central and South America (CSA). We describe the current burden of cancer in CSA. METHODS We obtained regional and national-level cancer incidence data from 48 population-based registries (13 countries) and nation-wide cancer mortality data from the WHO (18 countries). We estimated world population age-standardized incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 person-years. RESULTS The leading cancers diagnosed were prostate, lung, breast, cervix, colorectal, and stomach, which were also the primary causes of cancer mortality. Countries of high/very high human development index (HDI) in the region experienced a high burden of prostate and breast cancer while medium HDI countries had a high burden of stomach and cervical cancers. Between countries, incidence and mortality from all cancers combined varied by 2-3-fold. French Guyana, Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina had the highest incidence of all cancers while Uruguay, Cuba, Argentina, and Chile had the highest mortality. Incidence of colorectum, prostate and thyroid cancers increased in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Costa Rica from 1997 to 2008, while lung, stomach and cervical cancers decreased. CONCLUSION CSA carries a double-burden of cancer, with elevated rates of infection- and lifestyle-related cancers. Encountered variation in cancer rates between countries may reflect differences in registration practices, healthcare access, and public awareness. Resource-dependent interventions to prevent, early diagnose, and treat cancer remain an urgent priority. There is an overwhelming need to improve the quality and coverage of cancer registration to guide and evaluate future cancer control policies and programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mónica S Sierra
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France.
| | | | - Sébastien Antoni
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France
| | - Mathieu Laversanne
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France
| | - Marion Piñeros
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France
| | - Esther de Vries
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogota, Colombia
| | - David Forman
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France
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Mhatre SS, Nagrani RT, Budukh A, Chiplunkar S, Badwe R, Patil P, Laversanne M, Rajaraman P, Bray F, Dikshit R. Place of birth and risk of gallbladder cancer in India. Indian J Cancer 2016; 53:304-308. [PMID: 28071634 DOI: 10.4103/0019-509x.197723] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
CONTEXT Within India, the incidence of gallbladder cancer (GBC) is characterized by marked geographical variation; however, the reasons for these differences are unclear. AIMS To evaluate the role of place of birth, length of residence, and effect of migration from high- to low-risk region on GBC development. SETTINGS AND DESIGN Population-based cancer registries (PBCRs); case-control study. SUBJECTS AND METHODS Data of PBCRs were used to demonstrate geographical variation in GBC incidence rates. A case-control study data examined the role of birth place, residence length, and effect of migration in etiology of GBC. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Rate ratios for different PBCRs were estimated using Chennai Cancer Registry as the reference population. Odds ratios (ORs) for developing GBC in a high-risk region compared to a low-risk region and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated through unconditional logistic regression models using case-control study. RESULTS GBC shows marked variation in incidence with risk highest in Northeast regions and lowest in South India. OR of 4.82 (95% CI: 3.87-5.99) was observed for developing GBC for individuals born in a high-risk region compared to those born in a low-risk region after adjusting for confounders. A dose-response relationship with increased risk with increased length of residence in a high-risk region was observed (OR lifetime 5.58 [95% CI: 4.42-7.05]; Ptrend ≤ 0.001). The risk persisted even if study participant migrated from high- to low-risk region (OR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.02-1.82). CONCLUSIONS The present study signifies the importance of place of birth, length of stay, and effect of migration from high- to low-risk region in the development of GBC. The data indicate role of environmental and genetic factors in etiology of disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- S S Mhatre
- Centre for Cancer Epidemiology, Tata Memorial Centre, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - R T Nagrani
- Centre for Cancer Epidemiology, Tata Memorial Centre, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - A Budukh
- Centre for Cancer Epidemiology, Tata Memorial Centre, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - S Chiplunkar
- Chiplunkar Lab, Advanced Center for Treatment, Research and Education in Cancer, Tata Memorial Centre, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - R Badwe
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - P Patil
- Department of Digestive Diseases and Clinical Nutrition, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - M Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - P Rajaraman
- Centre for Global Health, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHSS, Bethesda, USA
| | - F Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - R Dikshit
- Centre for Cancer Epidemiology, Tata Memorial Centre, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
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50
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Zhou CK, Check DP, Lortet-Tieulent J, Laversanne M, Jemal A, Ferlay J, Bray F, Cook MB, Devesa SS. Prostate cancer incidence in 43 populations worldwide: An analysis of time trends overall and by age group. Int J Cancer 2016; 138:1388-400. [PMID: 26488767 PMCID: PMC4712103 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.29894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 191] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2015] [Revised: 10/08/2015] [Accepted: 10/15/2015] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Prostate cancer is a significant public health burden and a major cause of morbidity and mortality among men worldwide. Analyzing geographic patterns and temporal trends may help identify high-risk populations, suggest the degree of PSA testing, and provide clues to etiology. We used incidence data available from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and certain cancer registries for 43 populations across five continents during a median period of 24 years. Trends in overall prostate cancer rates showed five distinct patterns ranging from generally monotonic increases to peaking of rates followed by declines, which coincide somewhat with changes in the prevalence of PSA testing. Trends in age-specific rates generally mirrored those in the overall rates, with several notable exceptions. For populations where overall rates increased rapidly and then peaked, exemplified in North America and Oceania, the highest incidence tended to be most pronounced and occurred during earlier calendar years among older men compared with younger ones. For populations with almost continual increases in overall rates, exemplified in Eastern Europe and Asia, peaks were evident among men aged ≥ 75 years in many instances. Rates for ages 45-54 years did not clearly stabilize or decline in the majority of studied populations. Global geographic variation remained substantial for both overall and age-specific incidence rates regardless of levels of PSA testing, with the lowest rates consistently in Asia. Explanations for the persistent geographic differences and the continuing increases of especially early-onset prostate cancer remain unclear.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cindy Ke Zhou
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - David P. Check
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | - Mathieu Laversanne
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Jacques Ferlay
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Freddie Bray
- Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Michael B. Cook
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Susan S. Devesa
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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