The Impact of Adjusting for Hysterectomy Prevalence on Cervical Cancer Incidence Rates and Trends Among Women Aged 30 Years and Older - United States, 2001-2019

Hysterectomy protects against cervical cancer when the cervix is removed. However, measures of cervical cancer incidence often fail to exclude women with a hysterectomy from the population at risk denominator, underestimating and distorting disease burden. In this study, we estimated hysterectomy prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to remove the women who were not at risk of cervical cancer from the denominator and combined these estimates with the United States Cancer Statistics data. From these data, we calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for women aged >30 years from 2001-2019, adjusted for hysterectomy prevalence. We calculated the difference between unadjusted and adjusted incidence rates and examined trends by histology, age, race and ethnicity, and geographic region using Joinpoint regression. The hysterectomy-adjusted cervical cancer incidence rate from 2001-2019 was 16.7 per 100,000 women-34.6% higher than the unadjusted rate. After adjustment, incidence rates were higher by approximately 55% among Black women, 56% among those living in the East South Central division, and 90% among women aged 70-79 and >80 years. These findings underscore the importance of adjusting for hysterectomy prevalence to avoid underestimating cervical cancer incidence rates and masking disparities by age, race, and geographic region.

Age-period-cohort effects on incidence trends of childhood leukemia from four population-based cancer registries in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Childhood leukemia (CL) is the most prevalent form of pediatric cancer on a global scale. However, there is a limited understanding of the dynamics of CL incidence in South America, with a specific knowledge gap in Colombia. This study aimed to identify trends in CL incidence and to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the risk of leukemia incidence in this population.

METHODS

Information on all newly diagnosed leukemia cases (in general and by subtype) among residents aged 0-18 years and living in the serving areas of population-based cancer registries of Cali (2008-2017), Bucaramanga (2000-2017), Manizales (2003-2017), and Pasto (1998-2018). Estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in incidence over time and potential changes in the slope of these EAPCs were calculated using joinpoint regression models. The effects of age, period, and cohort in CL incidence trends were evaluated using age-period-cohort models addressing the identifiability issue through the application of double differences.

RESULTS

A total of 966 childhood leukemia cases were identified. The average standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leukemia was calculated and expressed per 100,000 person-years - observing ASIR of 4.46 in Cali, 7.27 in Bucaramanga, 3.89 in Manizales and 4.06 in Pasto. Concerning CL trends there were no statistically significant changes in EAPC throughout the different periods, however, when analyzed by leukemia subtype, statistically significant changes were observed in the EAPC for both ALL and AML. Analysis of age-period-cohort models revealed that age-related factors significantly underpin the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in these four Colombian cities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers valuable insights into the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in four major Colombian cities. The analysis revealed stable overall CL incidence rates across varying periods, predominantly influenced by age-related factors and the absence of cohort and period effects. This information is useful for surveillance and planning purposes for CL diagnosis and treatment in Colombia.

The Incidence Trend and Management of Thyroid Cancer-What Has Changed in the Past Years: Own Experience and Literature Review

Because of ambiguous and widely debated observations concerning the incidence, trend, and management of TC, we performed this analysis. We drew attention to some events, such as "cancer screening activity", introduction of noninvasive follicular neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) to TC types, possibility of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) active surveillance (AS), occurrence of personalized medicine in TC management, and, finally, COVID-19 pandemic time. Because of the opinion that all changes have been made mostly by PTC, we compared it to the remaining types of TC in terms of incidence, clinical and pathological characteristics, and treatment. We analyzed patients treated in a single surgical center in eastern Europe (Poland). The prevalence of TC significantly increased from 5.15% in 2008 to 13.84% in 2015, and then significantly decreased to 1.33% in 2022 when the COVID-19 pandemic lasted (p < 0.0001). A similar trend was observed for PTC, when the incidence significantly increased to 13.99% in 2015 and then decreased to 1.38% in 2022 (p < 0.0001). At that time, the NIFTP category was introduced, and observation of PTMC began. The prevalence of FTC and MTC also increased until 2015 and then decreased. Significant differences in age, types of surgery, necessity of reoperation, and pTNM between PTCs and other types of TCs were observed. The average age was significantly lower in PTC patients than in patients with the remaining types of TC (p < 0.0001). Four milestones, including NIFTP introduction, the possibility of PTMC AS, personalized cancer medicine, and the COVID-19 pandemic, may have influenced the general statistics of TC.

Incidence and time trends of childhood hematological neoplasms: a 36-year population-based study in the southern European context, 1983-2018

BACKGROUND

Hematological neoplasms (HNs) are the first and most common childhood cancers globally. Currently, there is a lack of updated population-based data on the incidence of these cancers in the Spanish pediatric population. This study aimed to describe the incidence and incidence trends of HNs in children (0-14 years) in Spain using data from the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries and to compare the results with other southern European countries.

METHODS

Data were extracted from 15 Spanish population-based cancer registries between 1983 and 2018. Cases were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition, first revision, and grouped according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer, third edition. Crude rates (CRs), age-specific rates, and age-standardized incidence rates using the 2013 European population (ASRE) were calculated and expressed as cases per 1,000,000 child-years. Incidence trends and annual percentage changes (APCs) were estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 4,747 HNs were recorded (59.5% boys). Age distribution [n (%)] was as follows: <1 year, 266 (5.6%); 1-4 years, 1,726 (36.4%); 5-9 years, 1,442 (30.4%); and 10-14 years, 1,313 (27.6%). Leukemias were the most common group, with a CR and an ASRE of 44.0 (95%CI: 42.5; 45.5) and 44.1 (95%CI: 42.6; 45.7), respectively. The CR and ASRE of lymphomas were 20.1 (95%CI: 19.1; 21.1) and 20.0 (95%CI: 19.0; 21.1), respectively. The comparable incidence rates between our results and those of other southern European countries were similar for lymphomas, while some differences were observed for leukemias. From 1988 to 2016, the trend in leukemia incidence was stable for both sexes, with an APC of 0.0 (95%CI: -0.5; 0.7), whereas a constant overall increase was observed for lymphoma in both sexes, with an APC of 1.0 (95%CI: 0.4; 1.6).

CONCLUSION

Leukemias are the most common HNs in children, and their incidence has remained stable since 1988, whereas the incidence of lymphomas has increased every year. Lymphoma incidence is like that of other southern European countries, while leukemia incidence is similar only to that of southwestern European countries. Collaborative cancer registry projects allow for assessing epidemiological indicators for cancers such as HNs, which helps health authorities and clinicians provide more knowledge about these malignancies.

Esophageal and gastric cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004 to 2018

Golestan province in the northeast of Iran is part of the Asian esophageal cancer belt and is known as a high-risk area for esophageal (EC) and gastric cancers (GC). Data on incident cases of EC and GC during 2004 to 2018 were obtained from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated and presented per 100 000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. We also fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess nonlinear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Overall, 3004 new cases of EC (ASR = 15.7) and 3553 cases of GC (ASR = 18.3) were registered in the GPCR. We found significant decreasing trends in incidence rates of EC (EAPC = -5.0; 95% CI: -7.8 to -2.2) and less marked nonsignificant trends for GC (EAPC = -1.4; 95% CI: -4.0 to 1.4) during 2004 to 2018. There was a strong cohort effect for EC with a consistent decrease in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924; IRR = 1.9 vs the reference birth cohort of 1947) through to the most recent cohort born in 1988 (IRR = 0.1). The marked declines in EC incidence rates in Golestan relate to generational changes in its underlying risk factors. Despite favorable trends, this population remains at high risk of both EC and GC. Further studies are warranted to measure the impact of the major risk factors on incidence with a view to designing effective preventative programs.

Trends in incidence rates of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas overall and by potential relatedness to human papillomavirus, Costa Rica 2006 to 2015

In Costa Rica (CR), only one report on head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence trends (1985-2007) has been published and no investigations on the epidemiology of potentially human papillomavirus (HPV)-related and HPV-unrelated HNCs have been done. We examined the age-standardized incidence rates (IRs) and trends of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) and compared incidence trends of potentially HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNSCCs. We obtained all available HNC cases for the period 2006-2015 from the Costa Rican National Cancer Registry of Tumors and the population estimates from the Costa Rican National Institute of Statistics and Census. The analysis was restricted to invasive HNSCCs (n = 1577). IRs and incidence rate ratios were calculated using SEER*Stat software and were age-standardized for the 2010 Costa Rican population. Joinpoint regression analysis program was used to calculate trends and annual percent changes (APCs) in rates. For all HNSCCs, the age-standardized IR was 34.0/million person-years; 95% CI 32.4, 35.8. There was a significant decline in the incidence of nasopharyngeal cancer (APC: -5.9% per year; 95% CI -10.8, -0.7) and laryngeal cancer (APC: -5.4% per year; -9.2, 1.5). The incidence trends for hypopharyngeal, oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancers each remained stable over time. HNSCCs were categorized by their potential relatedness to HPV infection. Though the APCs were not statistically significant, IRs of potentially HPV-related HNSCCs trended upward, while HPV-unrelated HNSCCs trended downward. HNSCCs are uncommon in CR and decreased over time. We observed a divergent pattern of decreasing HPV-unrelated with increasing HPV-related HNSCCs that should be further informed by HPV genotyping tumor samples.

Trends in the Incidence of Kaposi's Sarcoma and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in Northern Thailand during the Time Period of Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment, 1998-2017

PURPOSE

We evaluated the trends in incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL)  over the two decades in northern Thailand during which access to antiretroviral treatments (ART) in Thailand was scaled up.

METHODS

This is retrospective observational study. Data from 1998 to 2017 of patients diagnosed with KS and NHL from three long-standing, population-based cancer registries in northern Thailand (Chiang Mai, Lampang and Lamphun) were used to describe trends in age-adjusted incidence rate (ASR) of these cancers. The annual percent change (APC) of incidence rates were evaluated over this timeframe.

RESULTS

The incidence of KS significantly increased from 1998 to 2017 in males (APC of 6.9%) and very low incidence for evaluating change in female. NHL incidence significantly increased from 1998 to 2017, 2.2% and 1.8% per year in males and females, respectively (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

In the last two decades, the incidence of KS in male and NHL in both sexes have increased in northern Thailand, while the incidence of KS in female remained low. The change in incidences in opposite to the decline in HIV prevalence and increase ART coverage rate supported that other associated factors attributable to the development of KS and NHL should be looked for i.e., environmental, occupational exposures and other infections.

Geographical Disparities in Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the United States

BACKGROUND

Our previous research on neuroendocrine and gastric cancers has shown that patients living in rural areas have worse outcomes than urban patients. This study aimed to investigate the geographic and sociodemographic disparities in esophageal cancer patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study on esophageal cancer patients between 1975 and 2016 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Both univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to evaluate overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) between patients residing in rural (RA) and urban (MA) areas. Further, we used the National Cancer Database to understand differences in various quality of care metrics based on residence.

RESULTS

N = 49,421 (RA [12%]; MA [88%]). The incidence and mortality rates were consistently higher during the study period in RA. Patients living in RA were more commonly males (p < 0.001), Caucasian (p < 0.001), and had adenocarcinoma (p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that RA had worse OS (HR = 1.08; p < 0.01) and DSS (HR = 1.07; p < 0.01). Quality of care was similar, except RA patients were more likely to be treated at a community hospital (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified geographic disparities in esophageal cancer incidence and outcomes despite the similar quality of care. Future research is needed to understand and attenuate such disparities.

Temporal Trends in Papillary and Follicular Thyroid Cancer Incidence from 1995 to 2019 in Adults in Denmark According to Education and Income

Background: Thyroid cancer incidence has increased over the past decades. Differences in incidence trends have been observed depending on socioeconomic status. Here, we describe trends in the incidence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and follicular thyroid cancer (FTC) in Denmark by level of education and income. Methods: All PTC and FTC cases registered in the Danish Cancer Registry from 1995 to 2019 were identified. Individual-level information on education and income was obtained from nationwide registries. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates according to sex, tumor size, education and income, and estimated incidence trends by average annual percentage change (AAPC) and corresponding confidence intervals [CIs] for the periods 1995 to 2004 and 2005 to 2019 by using Poisson regression models. Results: We identified 3454 cases of PTC and 972 cases of FTC. From 2005 to 2019 among women, the incidence of PTC increased across all levels of education (AAPC_{short education} = 12.5% [CI 9.8 to 15.3]; AAPC_{medium education} = 8.1% [CI 6.4 to 9.9]; AAPC_{long education} = 7.3% [CI 5.4 to 9.2]). The same pattern was seen for income. The incidence of FTC increased in all levels of education (AAPC_{short education} = 10.5% [CI 5.8 to 15.4]; AAPC_{medium education} = 4.0% [CI 0.9 to 7.3]; AAPC_{long education} = 4.3% [CI 0.6 to 8.1]), with the same pattern for income. Similar trends were observed among men, in both small (≤2 cm) and large (>2 cm) PTCs and from 1995 to 2004 in both sexes. Conclusions: Enhanced detection of thyroid cancer among all levels of education and income cannot be ruled out, and in addition, our results may suggest a true increase in the incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer.

Trends in the Incidence of Cancer Among Adolescent and Young Adults in Alberta, 1983-2017: A Population-Based Study Using Cancer Registry Data

Purpose: To describe the cancer incidence burden and trends among adolescent and young adults (AYAs) in Alberta, Canada over a 35-year period. Methods: We obtained data from the Alberta Cancer Registry on all first primary cancers, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, diagnosed at ages 15-39 years among residents in Alberta from 1983 to 2017. Cancers were classified by using Barr's AYA cancer classification system. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in incidence rates were calculated. Statistically significant changes in the AAPC during the study period were assessed using Joinpoint regression. Results: Overall, 23,652 incident cases of AYA cancer were diagnosed in Alberta. Females accounted for ∼60% of the diagnoses. AYA cancer increased significantly over the study period overall (AAPC: 0.5%; 95%CI: 0.3%-0.7%), for each sex (AAPC_male: 0.7%; 95%CI: 0.4%-0.9%; AAPC_female: 0.4%; 95%CI: 0.2%-0.6%), and among male and female 20-39 year-olds. Although statistically significant increases were observed in 11 out of 29 cancer sites for at least a portion of the study period, with significant AAPCs ranging from 0.8% (95%CI: 0.01%-1.5%) to 6.6% (95%CI: 4.6%-8.5%), the main driver was thyroid cancer (AAPC: 3.7%; 95%CI: 3.2%-4.2%). Statistically significant decreases were observed for six cancer sites, with AAPCs ranging from -6.4% (95%CI: -8.7% to -4.1%) to -1.1% (95%CI: -1.8% to -0.5%). Conclusions: There is a growing cancer burden among AYAs in Alberta, which is driven primarily by thyroid cancer and early-onset cancers in males. These results highlight the need for etiological studies and tertiary strategies to prevent and mitigate morbidity and mortality in the AYA population.

Comparison of liver cancer incidence and survival by subtypes across seven high-income countries

International comparison of liver cancer survival has been hampered due to varying standards and degrees for morphological verification and differences in coding practices. This article aims to compare liver cancer survival across the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership's (ICBP) jurisdictions whilst trying to ensure that the estimates are comparable through a range of sensitivity analyses. Liver cancer incidence data from 21 jurisdictions in 7 countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom) were obtained from population-based registries for 1995-2014. Cases were categorised based on histological classification, age-groups, basis of diagnosis and calendar period. Age-standardised incidence rate (ASR) per 100 000 and net survival at 1 and 3 years after diagnosis were estimated. Liver cancer incidence rates increased over time across all ICBP jurisdictions, particularly for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with the largest relative increase in the United Kingdom, increasing from 1.3 to 4.4 per 100 000 person-years between 1995 and 2014. Australia had the highest age-standardised 1-year and 3-year net survival for all liver cancers combined (48.7% and 28.1%, respectively) in the most recent calendar period, which was still true for morphologically verified tumours when making restrictions to ensure consistent coding and classification. Survival from liver cancers is poor in all countries. The incidence of HCC is increasing alongside the proportion of nonmicroscopically verified cases over time. Survival estimates for all liver tumours combined should be interpreted in this context. Care is needed to ensure that international comparisons are performed on appropriately comparable patients, with careful consideration of coding practice variations.

Incidence trends of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) in the aging population--A SEER-based analysis from 2000 to 2016

Background

Tobacco and alcohol use are risk factors for Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck (SCCHN); however, there is growing recognition of HPV as a risk factor for SCCHN. HPV‐related SCCHN is thought to affect mostly middle‐aged individuals but as the US population ages, it is important to evaluate the change in incidence of HPV‐ and non‐HPV‐related SCCHN in individuals who are ≥65 years old.

Methods

This was a retrospective study using data from a population‐based cancer registry (SEER) to identify individuals ≥65 years old diagnosed with SCCHN between 2000 and 2016 also stratified by sex, race, and birth cohort. The subgroups of HPV‐associated and non‐HPV associated sites were analyzed independently. The incidence per year was calculated and joinpoint detection was used to identity significant changes in incidence trends and annual percent change (APC).

Results

For HPV‐associated sites from 2000 to 2016, there was an average annual rate of 10.8 per 100,000 individuals with an APC of 2.92% (p = <0.05). For HPV‐ and non‐HPV‐related SCCHN males had a higher annual rate compared to females, 54.5 versus 18.0 in non‐HPV‐related and 19.1 versus 4.4 in HPV‐related sites. For non‐HPV‐related sites there was a decrease in APC across all stratified groups. For HPV‐related sites there was an increase in APC across all stratified groups, especially males (APC 8.82% 2006–2016 p < 0.05) and White individuals (APC 8.19% 2006–2016 p < 0.05). When stratified by birth cohort, HPV‐related SCCHN sites had a higher APC in ages 65–69 (8.38% p < 0.05) and 70–74 (8.54% p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Among the population ≥65 years old from 2000 to 2016, the incidence rate for HPV‐related SCCHN sites has increased across all stratified groups, especially in White individuals, males, and age groups 65–74. The incidence rate for non‐HPV‐related sites has decreased across all stratified groups during this time.

Are We Undercounting MDS? An Analysis of Incidence Patterns of Myelodysplastic Syndromes in SEER 21 Regions: 2001-2016

Background

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), a group of reportable malignancies in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program since 2001, are poorly understood neoplasms. There have been several updates since they became reportable, with several changes introduced to cases diagnosed in 2010 and onwards. None have examined changes in patterns of MDS incidence over the long term, accounting for such changes.

Objective

The objective of this analysis was to assess changes in incidence of MDS from 2001 to 2016 by demographic characteristics and histology, applying coding changes implemented in 2010.

Methods

Incidence-SEER 21 region data for the 2001-2016 period were used to estimate incidence rates using SEER*Stat version 8.3.6. Cases were included that were diagnosed as MDS during this period having the following International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd edition (ICD-O-3) histology codes: 9980, 9982-9986, 9989, and 9991-9992. Annual incidence rates for the total population, as well as by demographic characteristics and histology, were estimated. All incidence rates were age adjusted using the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups; census P25-1130).

Results

A total of 86,146 MDS cases were diagnosed during the 2001-2016 period, with an age-adjusted incidence rate of 4.7 cases per 100,000 population. The majority (~61%) were classified as MDS, unclassifiable (MDS-U, ICD-O-3: 9989). Annual rates steadily increased from 3.7 per 100,000 in 2001 to 5.6 per 100,000 in 2010, then declined to 3.8 per 100,000 in 2016, making an inverted V-shaped pattern. This pattern was observed for both sexes and all assessed racial and ethnic groups, as well as among the ≥65-year age groups. When the rates were assessed by histology, this pattern was observed for MDS-U, but not for other subtypes.

Conclusion

MDS-U subtype dominates the observed trend in incident rates. The decline in rates since 2010 is most likely due to changes in coding and diagnostic criteria introduced in 2010. Further analysis is warranted to conclusively determine all factors leading to the changes observed.

Childhood cancers in a section of the South African private health sector: Analysis of medicines claims data

Background

Although childhood cancers are rare, increases in incidence have been observed in recent times. There is a paucity of data on the current incidence of childhood cancers in South Africa.

Aim

This study described the epidemiology of childhood cancers in a section of the private health sector of South Africa, using medicines claims data.

Setting

This study was designed on a nationally representative medicine claims database.

Method

A longitudinal open-cohort study employing children younger than 19 years and diagnosed with cancers between 2008 and 2017 was conducted using medicine claims data from a South African Pharmaceutical Benefit Management company. Cases were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnostic codes C00 to C97, together with a medicine claim reimbursed from oncology benefits. Crude incidence rates were calculated per million persons younger than 19 years on the database and standardised using the Segi 1960 world population. Temporal trends in incidence rates, analysed using the joinpoint regression, were reported as annual percentage changes (APCs).

Results

Overall, 173 new cases of childhood cancers were identified in the database, translating into an age-standardised incidence rate (ASR) of 82.3 per million. Annual incidence of cancer decreased from 76.7 per million in 2008 to 58.2 per million in 2017. More incident cases were identified in males (68.8%). The highest proportion of incident cases was recorded for leukaemias (39.9%), the 5–9 year age group (34.1%) and the Gauteng Province (49.7%).

Conclusion

The incidence of childhood cancers decreased over time in the section of the private health sector studied. Leukaemias were the major drivers of childhood cancer incidence.

Epidemiology of mesothelioma in the 21st century in Europe and the United States, 40 years after restricted/banned asbestos use

Research has established a strong association between asbestos exposure and malignant mesothelioma, a deadly form of cancer. Since the early 1980’s many countries have restricted or banned the production of asbestos, leading to a decline of occupational asbestos exposure in many industrialized countries. However, some countries continue to use asbestos, and worldwide rates of mesothelioma are still increasing. Because of the long latency between exposure and mesothelioma occurrence and the persistence of environmental exposure, incidence rates (IR) may decrease very slowly for several years ahead. In this review, we examine estimates of asbestos consumption before widespread asbestos regulations and the trends in incidence and mortality rates, as well as changes over time for the United States and Europe. In some countries with earlier asbestos restrictions, mesothelioma incidence has been in a modest decline over time. However, asbestos exposure is still a burden worldwide and legislative action is needed to obtain a full ban. The pattern of mesothelioma is shifting from a mostly male disease to a disease that affects females as well in substantial numbers. Studies on unknown sources of asbestos exposure, of other sources of natural exposure to asbestos and asbestos-like fibers, as well as of individual genetic susceptibility to asbestos fibers are needed.

Increasing incidence of endometrial carcinoma in a high-risk New Zealand community

BACKGROUND

Endometrial carcinoma (EC) is increasing in incidence, attributed largely to the obesity epidemic. Ethnic differences in New Zealand have long been recognised, with Pacific women bearing the greater burden of disease. We hypothesise that the pooled national incidence rates underestimate the true burden of EC in our high-risk community.

AIMS

We aimed to: (1) determine the incidence, trends and outcome of EC in the high-risk community served by our hospital, relative to national data; and (2) examine associated demographic, and clinicopathological features with reference to risk factors, to identify potential clinical and population intervention points.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All area-resident women treated for EC at Middlemore Hospital from 2000 to 2014 were identified from records, and clinicopathological data obtained. Incidence and time trend analyses were performed with reference to tumour type, age and ethnicity.

RESULTS

The study included 588 women. Pacific, followed by Māori, women had the highest incidence of EC (relative risk = 5.11 and 2.47, respectively, relative to 'Other' women). The incidence increased for all ethnicities (annual percentage change (APC) of 7.3; 95% CI 3.6-11.1), most marked in women aged below 50 years (APC of 12.2; 95% CI 5.2-19.7). This occurred predominantly in Pacific women, who had a high prevalence of potentially reversible risk factors. Disease-specific survival was worse in Pacific, and to a lesser extent, Māori women.

CONCLUSIONS

Prompt investigation of symptomatic, high-risk women regardless of age may detect endometrial abnormalities at an early, potentially reversible stage. The prevention and management of identifiable high-risk factors would help mitigate the risk of EC and associated diseases.

Incidence trends for upper aerodigestive tract cancers in rural United States counties

BACKGROUND

Recent declines in cancer incidence and mortality have not been distributed equally across the United States. Factors such as tobacco cessation and human papillomavirus presence might differentially affect urban and rural portions of the country.

METHODS

We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to assess cancer incidence rates and trends from 1973 to 2015. We compared incidence rates for oral cavity, oropharynx, and larynx cancer in urban and rural counties and identified trends using Joinpoint software.

RESULTS

Incidence of larynx and oral cavity cancer are decreasing faster in urban areas than in rural areas, while incidence of oropharynx cancer is increasing faster in rural areas than urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Relative trends in incidence of larynx, oral cavity, and oropharynx cancer over the past 40 years are unfavorable for rural United States counties compared with urban areas. Cancer control programs should take this into account.

Mobile phone use and incidence of brain tumour histological types, grading or anatomical location: a population-based ecological study

OBJECTIVE

Some studies have reported increasing trends in certain brain tumours and a possible link with mobile phone use has been suggested. We examined the incidence time trends of brain tumour in Australia for three distinct time periods to ascertain the influence of improved diagnostic technologies and increase in mobile phone use on the incidence of brain tumours.

DESIGN

In a population-based ecological study, we examined trends of brain tumour over the periods 1982-1992, 1993-2002 and 2003-2013. We further compared the observed incidence during the period of substantial mobile phone use (2003-2013) with predicted (modelled) incidence for the same period by applying various relative risks, latency periods and mobile phone use scenarios.

SETTING

National Australian incidence registration data on primary cancers of the brain diagnosed between 1982 and 2013.

POPULATION

16 825 eligible brain cancer cases aged 20-59 from all of Australia (10 083 males and 6742 females).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Annual percentage change (APC) in brain tumour incidence based on Poisson regression analysis.

RESULTS

The overall brain tumour rates remained stable during all three periods. There was an increase in glioblastoma during 1993-2002 (APC 2.3, 95% CI 0.8 to 3.7) which was likely due to advances in the use of MRI during that period. There were no increases in any brain tumour types, including glioma (-0.6, -1.4 to 0.2) and glioblastoma (0.8, -0.4 to 2.0), during the period of substantial mobile phone use from 2003 to 2013. During that period, there was also no increase in glioma of the temporal lobe (0.5, -1.3 to 2.3), which is the location most exposed when using a mobile phone. Predicted incidence rates were higher than the observed rates for latency periods up to 15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

In Australia, there has been no increase in any brain tumour histological type or glioma location that can be attributed to mobile phones.

Incidence trend and conditional survival estimates of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: A large population-based study

Given the rarity and indolent clinical course of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs), conditional survival might be the most suitable parameter for cancer survivors who wish to receive accurate prognostic information during follow-up. We have explored the updated incidence trend and the conditional survival of patients with GEP-NETs. Incidence trends from 2000 to 2014 were determined through an assessment of patients in the SEER cancer registry. Patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2011 were included in the conditional survival analysis, and the 3-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CCS3) was computed. The incidence of GEP-NETs, which is far higher than the incidence of many malignant tumors, is still increasing steadily (annual percentage change = 4.4). The risk of death from NETs is dynamic over time, and most deaths occur in the first 3 years after diagnosis. Patients with gastric, rectal, or appendiceal NETs hardly exhibit any excess mortality (CCS3 > 95%) given that they have already survived until a defined time-point within 10 years. The initial difference between each age group basically disappeared with an extension of the survival time since the initial diagnosis of gastric, appendiceal, or rectal NETs, but the difference persisted for tumors at other sites. Although patients with advanced-stage or higher-grade tumors have a worse survival at diagnosis than patients with early-stage or lower-grade tumors, the difference diminishes and might even disappear over time. For GEP-NETs that are rare but exhibit slow growth, clinically relevant variations in conditional survival were observed based on the time since diagnosis. Therefore, conditional survival can serve as a guideline that can be used by cancer survivors to plan their future and doctors to plan surveillance schedules.

Long-term epidemiological dynamics of dengue in Barbados - one of the English-speaking Caribbean countries

Using the dengue surveillance program, we prospectively collected data on all the suspected and confirmed cases of dengue in Barbados from 2006 to 2015. Data were analysed for demographic, seasonal and temporal dynamics of this disease in this country. The overall mean annual incidence rate of suspected and confirmed dengue over the study period was 0.49% (range 0.15%-0.99%) and 0.16% (range 0.05%-0.48%), respectively. There was a significant correlation between the mean monthly number of confirmed cases, the mean monthly rainfall and the mean monthly relative humidity percentage. Dengue in this population is predominantly an infection affecting children and young adults. The median age of the patients with both, suspected and confirmed dengue was 25 years and the highest proportion of cases was seen in the age group 0-15 years. The annual incidence rates of both the suspected and the confirmed cases showed an upward trend during the study period and this upward trend was more pronounced among children.

Geographic Differences in Temporal Incidence Trends of Hepatitis C Virus Infection Among People Who Inject Drugs: The InC3 Collaboration

Background.

We determined temporal trends (1985–2011) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence and associated behavioral exposures for people who inject drugs (PWID) from the United States (Boston, Baltimore, and San Francisco), Canada (Montreal), the Netherlands (Amsterdam), and Australia (Sydney and Melbourne).

Methods.

Using population-based cohort data from HCV-negative PWID, we calculated overall and within-city HCV incidence trends, HCV rates by study enrollment period (1985–2011), and temporal trends in exposure behaviors. Poisson regression models estimated trends in HCV incidence over calendar-time. Survival models identified risk factors for HCV incidence across cities and estimated independent effects of city and calendar period on HCV infection risk.

Results.

Among 1391 initially HCV-negative participants followed prospectively (1644.5 person-years of observation [PYO]), 371 HCV incident infections resulted in an overall incidence of 22.6 per 100 PYO (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.4–25.0). Incidence was highest and remained elevated in Baltimore (32.6/100 PYO), San Francisco (24.7/100 PYO), and Montreal (23.5/100 PYO), lowest in Melbourne and Amsterdam (7.5/100 PYO and 13.1/100 PYO, respectively), and moderate (21.4/100 PYO) in Sydney. Higher rates of syringe and equipment sharing and lower prevalence of opioid agonist therapy were associated with HCV incidence in cities with the highest incidence. Risk for infection dropped by 18% for every 3-year increase in calendar-time (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.8 [95% CI, .8–.9]) in the multivariable model.

Conclusions.

Differences in prevention strategies and injecting contexts may explain the ongoing high HCV incidence in these North American cities and emphasize the need for scale-up of opioid agonist therapy and increased coverage of needle and syringe programs in North America.

Less overdiagnosis of kidney cancer? an age-period-cohort analysis of incidence trends in 16 populations worldwide

The increasing rates of kidney cancer incidence, reported in many populations globally, have been attributed both to increasing exposures to environmental risk factors, as well as increasing levels of incidental diagnosis due to widespread use of imaging. To better understand these trends, we examine long-term cancer registry data worldwide, focusing on the roles of birth cohort and calendar period, proxies for changes in risk factor prevalence and detection practice respectively. We used an augmented version of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series to analyze kidney cancer incidence rates 1978-2007 in 16 geographically representative populations worldwide by sex for ages 30-74, using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The full APC model provided the best fit to the data in most studied populations. While kidney cancer incidence rates have been increasing in successive generations born from the early twentieth century in most countries, equivalent period-specific rises were observed from the late-1970s, although these have subsequently stabilized in certain European countries (the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Finland, Spain) as well as Japan from the mid-1990s, and from the mid-2000s, in Colombia, Costa Rica and Australia. Our results indicate that the effects of both birth cohort and calendar period contribute to the international kidney cancer incidence trends. While cohort-specific increases may partly reflect the rising trends in obesity prevalence and the need for more effective primary prevention policies, the attenuations in period-specific increases (observed in 8 of the 16 populations) highlight a possible change in imaging practices that could lead to mitigation of overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

Increasing Incidence of Colorectal Cancer in Adolescents and Young Adults Aged 15-39 Years in Western Australia 1982-2007: Examination of Colonoscopy History

Aims

To examine trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and colonoscopy history in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) aged 15–39 years in Western Australia (WA) from 1982 to 2007.

Design

Descriptive cohort study using population-based linked hospital and cancer registry data.

Method

Five-year age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates of CRC were calculated for all AYAs and by sex. Temporal trends in CRC incidence were investigated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The annual percentage change (APC) in CRC incidence was calculated to identify significant time trends. Colonoscopy history relative to incident CRC diagnosis was examined and age and tumor grade at diagnosis compared for AYAs with and without pre-diagnosis colonoscopy. CRC-related mortality within 5 and 10 years of incident diagnosis were compared for AYAs with and without pre-diagnosis colonoscopy using mortality rate ratios (MRRs) derived from negative binomial regression.

Results

Age-standardized CRC incidence among AYAs significantly increased in WA between 1982 and 2007, APC = 3.0 (95% CI 0.7–5.5). Pre-diagnosis colonoscopy was uncommon among AYAs (6.0%, 33/483) and 71% of AYAs were diagnosed after index (first ever) colonoscopy. AYAs with pre-diagnosis colonoscopy were older at CRC diagnosis (mean 36.7 ± 0.7 years) compared to those with no prior colonoscopy (32.6 ± 0.2 years), p < 0.001. At CRC diagnosis, a significantly greater proportion of AYAs with pre-diagnosis colonoscopy had well-differentiated tumors (21.2%) compared to those without (5.6%), p = 0.001. CRC-related mortality was significantly lower for AYAs with pre-diagnosis colonoscopy compared to those without, for both 5-year [MRR = 0.44 (95% CI 0.27–0.75), p = 0.045] and 10-year morality [MRR = 0.43 (95% CI 0.24–0.83), p = 0.043].

Conclusion

CRC incidence among AYAs in WA has significantly increased over the 25-year study period. Pre-diagnosis colonoscopy is associated with lower tumor grade at CRC diagnosis as well as significant reduction in both 5- and 10-year CRC-related mortality rates. These findings warrant further research into the balance in benefits and harms of targeted screening for AYA at highest risk.

International patterns and trends in ovarian cancer incidence, overall and by histologic subtype

Internationally, ovarian cancer is the 7th leading cancer diagnosis and 8th leading cause of cancer mortality among women. Ovarian cancer incidence varies by region, particularly when comparing high vs. low-income countries. Temporal changes in reproductive factors coupled with shifts in diagnostic criteria may have influenced incidence trends of ovarian cancer and relative rates by histologic subtype. Accordingly, we evaluated trends in ovarian cancer incidence overall (1973-1977 to 2003-2007) and by histologic subtype (1988-1992 to 2003-2007) using volumes IV-IX of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database (CI5plus) and CI5X (volume X) database. Annual percent changes were calculated for ovarian cancer incidence trends, and rates of histologic subtypes for individual countries were compared to overall international incidence. Ovarian cancer incidence rates were stable across regions, although there were notable increases in Eastern/Southern Europe (e.g., Poland: Annual Percent Change (APC) 1.6%, p = 0.02) and Asia (e.g., Japan: APC 1.7%, p = 0.01) and decreases in Northern Europe (e.g., Denmark: APC -0.7%, p = 0.01) and North America (e.g., US Whites: APC -0.9%, p < 0.01). Relative proportions of histologic subtypes were similar across countries, except for Asian nations, where clear cell and endometrioid carcinomas comprised a higher proportion of the rate and serous carcinomas comprised a lower proportion of the rate than the worldwide distribution. Geographic variation in temporal trends of ovarian cancer incidence and differences in the distribution of histologic subtype may be partially explained by reproductive and genetic factors. Thus, histology-specific ovarian cancer should continue to be monitored to further understand the etiology of this neoplasm.

Incidence trends in high-grade primary brain tumors in males and females

The focus of the present review is to investigate whether there is a variation in the incidence rates between male and female patients with high-grade primary brain tumors and if there are altered incidence rates associated with the time at which they were diagnosed. Previous studies identified in internationally peer-reviewed journals were identified using a systematic search of the PubMed database. Due to the difficulties in data interpretation, studies that exclusively included patient data classified prior to the 2nd edition of the World Health Organization histological classification system of brain tumors were excluded. The overall incidence rates and incidence trends of male and female patients were analyzed separately. The mean age-adjusted overall incidence rate in the male population was 1.27 per 100,000 compared with 0.89 per 100,000 in the female population. The variance between the two genders differed and a Wilcoxon rank-sum test indicated that there was no significant difference in the incidence rate of high-grade primary brain tumors between males and females (P=0.3658). Furthermore, there was no significant difference in incidence rate trend between 1996-2004 and 2005-2010 for male or female populations (P=0.101 and P=0.472, respectively). The results from the present systematic review did not demonstrate a significant difference in incidence rate between the two genders. Therefore, the results from the current study are considered to be preliminary and further studies are required to elucidate this issue.

Breast cancer incidence: Decreasing trend in large tumours in women aged 50-74

Objective A decrease in advanced breast cancer incidence is considered an early indicator of breast cancer mortality reduction in a screening programme. We describe trends in breast cancer incidence according to tumour size and age in three French administrative areas, where an organized screening programme was implemented during the 1990s. Methods Our study included all 28,092 invasive breast cancers diagnosed from 2000 to 2010 in women living in three areas (Hérault, Isère, Loire-Atlantique). Age, year of diagnosis, and size of tumour at diagnosis was provided by the three area cancer registries. Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate changes in incidence over time, after adjustment for age and administrative area. Results From 2000 to 2010, the incidence rate of large (tumour size >20 mm) breast cancer linearly decreased in women aged 50-74 (target age of the screening programme) from 108.4 to 84.1/100,000 (annual percent change = -1.9%, p < 0.001). No change in large breast cancer incidence rate was found in women aged 20-49, or older than 74. Conclusions A decreasing trend in incidence of large tumour size breast cancer in the target age of the screening programme is demonstrated for the first time in France. The overall 20.9% linear decrease over 11 years in these three areas is encouraging and should be closely monitored and extended to other areas of France, where the screening programme was generally implemented only in 2004.

Decreasing trends in incidence and prevalence of renal replacement therapy in Croatia from 2000 to 2009

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have indicated stabilization in the incidence rates of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a number of European countries, the USA, and Japan. The aim of this study was to provide an update on the incidence and prevalence trends of RRT in Croatia over the past decade.

METHODS

Data from the Croatian Registry of Renal Replacement therapy from 2000 to 2009 were analysed. Trends in incidence and prevalence were examined using the Poisson regression and Joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

The total adjusted incidence rate of RRT for ESRD increased from 106.1 per million population (pmp) in 2000 to 140.4 pmp in 2004, at annual percentage change (APC) 7.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8, 12.6]. From 2004 to 2009, there was no rise in incidence [APC -1.0 (95% CI -4.5, 2.6)]. Continuous growth in incidence was present only in males [APC 2.6 (95% CI 0.9, 4.4)], in patients 65 years and older [APC 5.5 (95% CI 3.4, 7.6)], in patients with diabetes [APC 2.4 (95% CI 0.5, 4.4)], hypertension/renovascular disease [APC 6.1 (95% CI 1.6, 10.8)] and unknown/missing diagnosis [APC13.8 (95% CI 9.0, 18.8)]. The total adjusted prevalence rate rose from 598.7 pmp in 2000 to 785.6 pmp in 2004, at an annual rise of 7.5% (95% CI 5.8, 9.3). In the 2004-09 period, the growth of RRT slowed to APC 2.4 (95% CI 1.2, 3.5), and reached 890.8 pmp in 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

After a rapid increase in the incidence of RRT in Croatia from 2000 to 2004, the incidence rate has stabilized during the 2004-09 period. The stabilization of incidence is followed by a reduction in the growth in prevalence rate. The stabilization of RRT incidence could be attributed to the successful prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases that simultaneously improved renal survival.

Melanoma incidence trends and survival in adolescents and young adults in Queensland, Australia

Cutaneous melanoma is a relatively common cancer in adolescents and young adults in Australia, but detailed information about occurrence patterns and prognosis is limited. We evaluated incidence trends from 1982 to 2010 and recent survival rates in those aged 15-24 years in the state of Queensland. In situ and invasive melanoma cases were identified from the Queensland Cancer Registry. Incidence rates were age-standardised to the 2000 World population and trends calculated using joinpoint regression. Five-year relative survival was estimated by the period method and Poisson models were used to produce adjusted mortality hazard ratios. Average annual incidence rates for the 5-year period 2006-2010 were 6.3 per 100,000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.4, 7.2] for in situ and 10.1 per 100,000 (95% CI 9.0, 11.3) for invasive melanoma. Since the mid-1990s, incidence rates for in situ melanomas have been stabilizing while invasive melanoma has decreased in both sexes, mainly owing to declining rates of thin tumours (≤1 mm) (-5.4% per year, 95% CI -8.3%, -2.4%). Incidence rates of melanomas >1 mm in thickness have remained relatively unchanged since 1991 however. In the period 2006-2010, relative 5-year survival of 15-24 year olds with invasive melanoma was 95.7% (95% CI 92.9%, 97.5%). The subgroup with tumours >1 mm was nearly six times more likely to die within 5 years than those with thin tumours (adjusted hazard ratio = 5.53, 95% CI 1.72, 17.80). Incidence of thin melanoma in young people in Queensland is declining, suggesting benefits of primary prevention efforts are being realised.

Population-based evaluation of incidence trends in oropharyngeal cancer focusing on socioeconomic status, sex, and race/ethnicity

BACKGROUND

The influences of socioeconomic status (SES) on the incidence rates of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) are unclear.

METHODS

Data from the California Cancer Registry and U.S. Census were used to compare incidence rates and trends of OPSCC and other human papillomavirus-related and -unrelated cancer sites by neighborhood SES, race/ethnicity, and sex.

RESULTS

The incidence of OPSCC rose in both higher and lower SES neighborhoods. Absolute rates were greater in the latter. Only non-Hispanic white males with OPSCC demonstrated a significant increase in the incidence rate of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). The incidence rate for this group increased from 4.5/100,000 person-years between 1988 and 1992 to 7.1 between 2003 and 2009. Regression analysis demonstrated an annual percentage change of 1% from 1988 to 1997 and 4% thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in incidence rates are SES independent. Incidence rates are higher in lower-SES groups. The rise in OPSCC incidence is limited to non-Hispanic white males.

Descriptive epidemiology of vestibular schwannomas

Vestibular schwannomas, commonly termed acoustic neuromas, arise from the vestibular branch of the eighth cranial nerve (acoustic nerve) and are benign, slow-growing brain tumors that negatively impact patient quality of life. They are thought to account for the majority of intracranial nerve sheath tumors. To describe incidence rate patterns and trends of primary nerve sheath tumors of the brain/CNS and the subset of vestibular schwannomas in two population-based incidence registries, data were obtained from 11 Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) collaborating state registries and the Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program (LACCSP) (1975-1998). Average annual incidence rates were tabulated by age, gender, race, year, and region and were age-adjusted to the year 2000 U.S. standard population. Multiplicative Poisson regression models were used to compare trends in primary nerve sheath tumors of the brain/CNS overall and in subgroups, including vestibular schwannomas, controlling for age, gender, race, microscopic confirmation, and region. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify any sharp changes in incidence over time. The overall incidence of primary nerve sheath tumors of the brain/CNS was 1.1 per 100,000 person-years (CBTRUS, 1995-1999 and LACCSP, 1995-1998). The incidence of vestibular schwannomas was similar for both data sets: 0.6 per 100,000 person-years (CBTRUS, 1995-1999) and 0.8 per 100,000 person-years (LACCSP, 1995-1998). Moreover, the incidence of primary nerve sheath tumors of the brain/CNS overall (CBTRUS, 1985-1999 and LACCSP, 1975-1998) and of vestibular schwannomas (CBTRUS, 1992-1999 and LACCSP, 1992-1998) increased over time. However, the incidence of benign schwannomas in sites other than the acoustic nerve either decreased (CBTRUS, 1992-1999) or experienced no significant change (LACCSP, 1992-1998). While improvements in diagnosis and reporting may explain some of these trends, further consideration of potential etiologic factors may be warranted.