Neutralization of Delta variant with sera of Covishield™ vaccinees and COVID-19-recovered vaccinated individuals

SARS-CoV-2 journey: from alpha variant to omicron and its sub-variants

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected hundreds of millions of individuals and caused more than six million deaths. The prolonged pandemic duration and the continual inter-individual transmissibility have contributed to the emergence of a wide variety of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Genomic surveillance and phylogenetic studies have shown that substantial mutations in crucial supersites of spike glycoprotein modulate the binding affinity of the evolved SARS-COV-2 lineages to ACE2 receptors and modify the binding of spike protein with neutralizing antibodies. The immunological spike mutations have been associated with differential transmissibility, infectivity, and therapeutic efficacy of the vaccines and the immunological therapies among the new variants. This review highlights the diverse genetic mutations assimilated in various SARS-CoV-2 variants. The implications of the acquired mutations related to viral transmission, infectivity, and COVID-19 severity are discussed. This review also addresses the effectiveness of human neutralizing antibodies induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection or immunization and the therapeutic antibodies against the ascended variants.

Neutralizing antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants: Post six months following two-dose & three-dose vaccination of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BBV152

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES

The Omicron sub-lineages are known to have higher infectivity, immune escape and lower virulence. During December 2022 - January 2023 and March - April 2023, India witnessed increased SARS-CoV-2 infections, mostly due to newer Omicron sub-lineages. With this unprecedented rise in cases, we assessed the neutralization potential of individuals vaccinated with ChAdOx1 nCoV (Covishield) and BBV152 (Covaxin) against emerging Omicron sub-lineages.

METHODS

Neutralizing antibody responses were measured in the sera collected from individuals six months post-two doses (n=88) of Covishield (n=44) or Covaxin (n=44) and post-three doses (n=102) of Covishield (n=46) or Covaxin (n=56) booster dose against prototype B.1 strain, lineages of Omicron; XBB.1, BQ.1, BA.5.2 and BF.7.

RESULTS

The sera of individuals collected six months after the two-dose and the three-dose demonstrated neutralizing activity against all variants. The neutralizing antibody (NAbs) level was highest against the prototype B.1 strain, followed by BA5.2 (5-6 fold lower), BF.7 (11-12 fold lower), BQ.1 (12 fold lower) and XBB.1 (18-22 fold lower).

INTERPRETATION CONCLUSIONS

Persistence of NAb responses was comparable in individuals with two- and three-dose groups post six months of vaccination. Among the Omicron sub-variants, XBB.1 showed marked neutralization escape, thus pointing towards an eventual immune escape, which may cause more infections. Further, the correlation of study data with complete clinical profile of the participants along with observations for cell-mediated immunity may provide a clear picture for the sustained protection due to three-dose vaccination as well as hybrid immunity against the newer variants.

A multi-specific, multi-affinity antibody platform neutralizes sarbecoviruses and confers protection against SARS-CoV-2 in vivo

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been responsible for a global pandemic. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been used as antiviral therapeutics; however, these therapeutics have been limited in efficacy by viral sequence variability in emerging variants of concern (VOCs) and in deployment by the need for high doses. In this study, we leveraged the multi-specific, multi-affinity antibody (Multabody, MB) platform, derived from the human apoferritin protomer, to enable the multimerization of antibody fragments. MBs were shown to be highly potent, neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 at lower concentrations than their corresponding mAb counterparts. In mice infected with SARS-CoV-2, a tri-specific MB targeting three regions within the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain was protective at a 30-fold lower dose than a cocktail of the corresponding mAbs. Furthermore, we showed in vitro that mono-specific MBs potently neutralize SARS-CoV-2 VOCs by leveraging augmented avidity, even when corresponding mAbs lose their ability to neutralize potently, and that tri-specific MBs expanded the neutralization breadth beyond SARS-CoV-2 to other sarbecoviruses. Our work demonstrates how avidity and multi-specificity combined can be leveraged to confer protection and resilience against viral diversity that exceeds that of traditional monoclonal antibody therapies.

Design and Immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 DNA Vaccine Encoding RBD-PVXCP Fusion Protein

The potential of immune-evasive mutation accumulation in the SARS-CoV-2 virus has led to its rapid spread, causing over 600 million confirmed cases and more than 6.5 million confirmed deaths. The huge demand for the rapid development and deployment of low-cost and effective vaccines against emerging variants has renewed interest in DNA vaccine technology. Here, we report the rapid generation and immunological evaluation of novel DNA vaccine candidates against the Wuhan-Hu-1 and Omicron variants based on the RBD protein fused with the Potato virus X coat protein (PVXCP). The delivery of DNA vaccines using electroporation in a two-dose regimen induced high-antibody titers and profound cellular responses in mice. The antibody titers induced against the Omicron variant of the vaccine were sufficient for effective protection against both Omicron and Wuhan-Hu-1 virus infections. The PVXCP protein in the vaccine construct shifted the immune response to the favorable Th1-like type and provided the oligomerization of RBD-PVXCP protein. Naked DNA delivery by needle-free injection allowed us to achieve antibody titers comparable with mRNA-LNP delivery in rabbits. These data identify the RBD-PVXCP DNA vaccine platform as a promising solution for robust and effective SARS-CoV-2 protection, supporting further translational study.

A statistical analysis of tweets on covid-19 vaccine hesitancy utilizing opinion mining: an Indian perspective

The world witnessed the emergence of a deadly virus in December 2019, later named COVID-19. The virus was found to be highly contagious, and so people across the world were highly prone to be affected by the virus. Being a virus-borne disease, developing a vaccine was one of the most promising remedies. Thus, research organizations across the globe started working on developing the vaccine. However, it was later found by many researchers that a large number of people were hesitant to receive the vaccine. This paper aims to study the acceptance and hesitancy levels of people in India and compares them with the acceptance and hesitancy levels of people from the UK, the USA, and the rest of the world by analyzing their tweets on Twitter. For this study, 2,98,452 tweets were fetched from January 2020 to March 2022 from Twitter, and 1,84,720 tweets from 1,22,960 unique users were selected based on their country of origin. Machine learning based Sentiment analysis is then used to evaluate and analyze the tweets. The paper also proposes an NLP-based algorithm to perform opinion mining on Twitter data. The study found the public sentiment of the Indian population to be 63% positive, 28% neutral, and 9% negative. While the worldwide sentiment distribution is 45% positive, 34% neutral, and 21% negative, the USA has 42% positive, 34% neutral, and 23% negative and the UK has 50% positive, 29% neutral, and 21% negative. Also, sentiment analysis for individual vaccines in Indian context resulted in "Covaxin" with the highest positive sentiment at 43% followed by "Covishield" at 36%. The outcome of this work yields an insight into the public perception of the COVID-19 vaccine and thus can be used to formulate policies for existing and future vaccine campaigns. This study becomes more relevant as it is the consolidated opinion of Indian people, which is versatile in nature.

Panorama of Breakthrough Infection Caused by SARS-CoV-2: A Review

Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2019, many countries have successively developed a variety of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, with the continuous spread of SARS-CoV-2, it has evolved several variants; as a result, prevention and control of the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 has become more important. Among these variants, the Omicron variant has higher transmissibility and immune escape ability and is the main variant causing a large number of COVID-19 breakthrough infection, thus, presenting new challenges to pandemic prevention and control. Hence, we review the biological characteristics of the Omicron variant and discuss the current status and possible mechanism of breakthrough infection caused by the Omicron variant in order to provide insights into the prevention and control of the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2.

The Delta and Omicron Variants of SARS-CoV-2: What We Know So Far

The world has not yet completely overcome the fear of the havoc brought by SARS-CoV-2. The virus has undergone several mutations since its initial appearance in China in December 2019. Several variations (i.e., B.1.616.1 (Kappa variant), B.1.617.2 (Delta variant), B.1.617.3, and BA.2.75 (Omicron variant)) have emerged throughout the pandemic, altering the virus's capacity to spread, risk profile, and even symptoms. Humanity faces a serious threat as long as the virus keeps adapting and changing its fundamental function to evade the immune system. The Delta variant has two escape alterations, E484Q and L452R, as well as other mutations; the most notable of these is P681R, which is expected to boost infectivity, whereas the Omicron has about 60 mutations with certain deletions and insertions. The Delta variant is 40-60% more contagious in comparison to the Alpha variant. Additionally, the AY.1 lineage, also known as the "Delta plus" variant, surfaced as a result of a mutation in the Delta variant, which was one of the causes of the life-threatening second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Nevertheless, the recent Omicron variants represent a reminder that the COVID-19 epidemic is far from ending. The wave has sparked a fervor of investigation on why the variant initially appeared to propagate so much more rapidly than the other three variants of concerns (VOCs), whether it is more threatening in those other ways, and how its type of mutations, which induce minor changes in its proteins, can wreck trouble. This review sheds light on the pathogenicity, mutations, treatments, and impact on the vaccine efficacy of the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.

An Analysis of the COVID-19 Situation in India in Terms of Testing, Treatment, Vaccine Acceptance and National Economic Performance

Objectives: This study aims to provide a comprehensive review on the analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in India and address economic impact, diagnosis approaches, and vaccine acceptance and hesitation.

Method: We retrieved articles published in 2020 and 2021 and current data from official websites that narrate the strategy for COVID-19 testing, issues, and challenges, healthcare system insufficiency, statistics of cases, deaths, vaccination, and vaccine acceptance barriers, and beliefs.

Results: India being the 2nd largest populated country with a population of 1.4 billion faced massive difficulty in controlling the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This crisis dramatically impeded the economy of the nation. India witnessed 2nd highest number (43,019,453) of confirmed cases and 3rd highest number of deaths (521,004) across the world.

Conclusion: The major cause of the collapse of COVID-19 is the high population of India, pre-existing weak healthcare system, and the lack of awareness among the people. The fall, rise, and statistics provided in the review will help in comparing the current status with other countries and in making strong strategies to combat future calamities.

Host genetic diversity and genetic variations of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 pathogenesis and the effectiveness of vaccination

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), responsible for the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has shown a vast range of clinical manifestations from asymptomatic to life-threatening symptoms. To figure out the cause of this heterogeneity, studies demonstrated the trace of genetic diversities whether in the hosts or the virus itself. With this regard, this review provides a comprehensive overview of how host genetic such as those related to the entry of the virus, the immune-related genes, gender-related genes, disease-related genes, and also host epigenetic could influence the severity of COVID-19. Besides, the mutations in the genome of SARS-CoV-2 __leading to emerging of new variants__ per se affect the affinity of the virus to the host cells and enhance the immune escape capacity. The current review discusses these variants and also the latest data about vaccination effectiveness facing the most important variants.

Mild reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant: First case report from Indonesia

Background

Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 has been well documented, yet little is known about the degree of protection a previous infection provides against reinfection, especially against Variants of Concern (VOC).

Case presentation

Here we describe a case of an unvaccinated 49-year-old man who experienced two sequential SARS-CoV-2 infections with two different variants, as evidenced by genomic sequencing. The first episode was caused by the Pango lineage B.1.466.2 and resulted in severe COVID-19 with 5 days in an intensive care unit (ICU). The second episode occurred approximately 6 months later, during the Delta surge in Indonesia. Genomic analysis showed that the second infection was caused by the Delta variant (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) and resulted in mild disease that did not require hospitalization. No SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid was detected between the two episodes, but both binding and neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 were detected prior to the reinfection, with the second infection leading to an increase in the levels of antibody.

Conclusion

We confirmed that the patient experienced a reinfection instead of persistent viral shedding from the first infection based on epidemiological, clinical, serological, and genomic analyses. Our case supports the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 reinfection may occur once antibody titers decrease or following the emergence of a new variant. The milder presentation in the patient’s second infection deserves further investigation to provide a clear picture of the role of post-infection immunity in altering the course of subsequent disease.

Effectiveness of BBV152/Covaxin and AZD1222/Covishield vaccines against severe COVID-19 and B.1.617.2/Delta variant in India, 2021: A multi-centric hospital-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

India introduced BBV152/Covaxin and AZD1222/Covishield vaccines from January 2021. We estimated effectiveness of these vaccines against severe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among individuals aged ≥45 years.

METHODS

We did a multi-centric, hospital-based, case-control study between May and July 2021. Cases were severe COVID-19 patients and controls were COVID-19 negative individuals from 11 hospitals. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated for full (2 doses ≥14days) and partial (1 dose ≥21 days) vaccination; duration between two vaccine doses and against the Delta variant. We used a random effects logistic regression model to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% CI after adjusting for relevant known confounders.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1,143 cases and 2,541 controls. The VE of full vaccination was 85% (95% CI: 79%-89%) with AZD1222/Covishield and 71% (95% CI: 57%-81%) with BBV152/Covaxin. The VE was highest for an interval of 6-8 weeks between two doses of AZD1222/Covishield (94%, 95% CI: 86%-97%) and BBV152/Covaxin (93%, 95% CI: 34%-99%). The VE estimates were similar against the Delta strain and sub-lineages.

CONCLUSION

BBV152/Covaxin and AZD1222/Covishield were effective against severe COVID-19 among the Indian population during the period of dominance of highly transmissible Delta variant in second wave of pandemic. An escalation of two-dose coverage with COVID-19 vaccines is critical to reduce severe COVID-19 and further mitigate the pandemic in the country.

COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination

The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020-June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0-64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9-75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July-mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence.

Analysis of the Protective Efficacy of Approved COVID-19 Vaccines Against Various Mutants

The outbreak of COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2) has posed a significant threat to global public health security because of its high pathogenicity and infectivity. To date, the pathogenic mechanism of this novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is still unclear, and there is no effective treatment. As one of the most effective strategies to prevent viral infection, vaccines have become a research hotspot. Based on the current understanding of SARS-CoV-2, the research and development of its vaccines cover almost all forms of current vaccine research, including inactivated vaccines, recombinant protein vaccines, viral vector vaccines, and nucleic acid vaccines. Moreover, with the spread of the new mutant virus, it is necessary to evaluate the protection rate of previous administered vaccines. This article reviews the candidate targets, vaccine types, research and development status, progress of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, and the effectiveness of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 mutants (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.617.2, and B.1.1.529) induced by these vaccines, to provide a reference for follow-up research and prevention.

Clinico-Genomic Analysis Reiterates Mild Symptoms Post-vaccination Breakthrough: Should We Focus on Low-Frequency Mutations?

Vaccine development against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been of primary importance to contain the ongoing global pandemic. However, studies have demonstrated that vaccine effectiveness is reduced and the immune response is evaded by variants of concern (VOCs), which include Alpha, Beta, Delta, and, the most recent, Omicron. Subsequently, several vaccine breakthrough (VBT) infections have been reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) due to their prolonged exposure to viruses at healthcare facilities. We conducted a clinico-genomic study of ChAdOx1 (Covishield) VBT cases in HCWs after complete vaccination. Based on the clinical data analysis, most of the cases were categorized as mild, with minimal healthcare support requirements. These patients were divided into two sub-phenotypes based on symptoms: mild and mild plus. Statistical analysis showed a significant correlation of specific clinical parameters with VBT sub-phenotypes. Viral genomic sequence analysis of VBT cases revealed a spectrum of high- and low-frequency mutations. More in-depth analysis revealed the presence of low-frequency mutations within the functionally important regions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Emphasizing the potential benefits of surveillance, low-frequency mutations, D144H in the N gene and D138Y in the S gene, were observed to potentially alter the protein secondary structure with possible influence on viral characteristics. Substantiated by the literature, our study highlights the importance of integrative analysis of pathogen genomic and clinical data to offer insights into low-frequency mutations that could be a modulator of VBT infections.

A review of the safety and efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines

Vaccination is the most effective and feasible way to contain the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The rapid development of effective COVID-19 vaccines is an extraordinary achievement. This study reviewed the efficacy/effectiveness, immunogenicity, and safety profile of the 12 most progressed COVID-19 vaccines and discussed the challenges and prospects of the vaccine-based approaches in a global crisis. Overall, most of the current vaccines have shown safety and efficacy/effectiveness during actual clinical trials or in the real-world studies, indicating a development of pandemic control. However, many challenges are faced by pandemic control in terms of maximizing the effect of vaccines, such as rapid vaccine coverage, strategies to address variants with immune escape capability, and surveillance of vaccine safety in the medium- and long-terms.

A systematic review of Vaccine Breakthrough Infections by SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant

Vaccines are proving to be highly effective in controlling hospitalization and deaths associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, as shown by clinical trials and real-world evidence. However, a deadly second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), infected by SARS-CoV-2 variants, especially the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant, with an increased number of post-vaccination breakthrough infections were reported in the world recently. Actually, Delta variant not only resulted in a severe surge of vaccine breakthrough infections which was accompanied with high viral load and transmissibility, but also challenged the development of effective vaccines. Therefore, the biological characteristics and epidemiological profile of Delta variant, the current status of Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infections and the mechanism of vaccine breakthrough infections were discussed in this article. In addition, the significant role of the Delta variant spike (S) protein in the mechanism of immune escape of SARS-CoV-2 was highlighted in this article. In particular, we further discussed key points on the future SARS-CoV-2 vaccine research and development, hoping to make a contribution to the early, accurate and rapid control of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Neutralization assays for SARS-CoV-2: Implications for assessment of protective efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines

The WHO emergency use-listed (EUL) COVID-19 vaccines were developed against early strains of SARS-CoV-2. With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) - Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron, it is necessary to assess the neutralizing activity of these vaccines against the VOCs. PubMed and preprint platforms were searched for literature on neutralizing activity of serum from WHO EUL vaccine recipients, against the VOCs, using appropriate search terms till November 30, 2021. Our search yielded 91 studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The analysis revealed a drop of 0-8.9-fold against Alpha variant, 0.3-42.4-fold against Beta variant, 0-13.8-fold against Gamma variant and 1.35-20-fold against Delta variant in neutralization titres of serum from the WHO EUL COVID-19 vaccine recipients, as compared to early SARS-CoV-2 isolates. The wide range of variability was due to differences in the choice of virus strains selected for neutralization assays (pseudovirus or live virus), timing of serum sample collection after the final dose of vaccine (day 0 to 8 months) and sample size (ranging from 5 to 470 vaccinees). The reasons for this variation have been discussed and the possible way forward to have uniformity across neutralization assays in different laboratories have been described, which will generate reliable data. Though in vitro neutralization studies are a valuable tool to estimate the performance of vaccines against the backdrop of emerging variants, the results must be interpreted with caution and corroborated with field-effectiveness studies.

Comparable neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Delta AY.1 and Delta with individuals sera vaccinated with BBV152

Sera of COVID-19 naive vaccinees, COVID-19 recovered cases with vaccination and breakthrough cases demonstrated 1.3, 2.5 and 1.9-fold reduction in neutralization titers against Delta and 1.5, 3.5, 2.8-fold against Delta AY.1 compared to B.1 respectively. However, high neutralization titers would still effectively protect against Delta, Delta AY.1 and B.1.617.3 variants.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Genetic Variability and Clinical Implications

The sudden rise in COVID-19 cases in 2020 and the incessant emergence of fast-spreading variants have created an alarming situation worldwide. Besides the continuous advancements in the design and development of vaccines to combat this deadly pandemic, new variants are frequently reported, possessing mutations that rapidly outcompeted an existing population of circulating variants. As concerns grow about the effects of mutations on the efficacy of vaccines, increased transmissibility, immune escape, and diagnostic failures are few other apprehensions liable for more deadly waves of COVID-19. Although the phenomenon of antigenic drift in new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is still not validated, it is conceived that the virus is acquiring new mutations as a fitness advantage for rapid transmission or to overcome immunological resistance of the host cell. Considerable evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has been observed since its first appearance in 2019, and despite the progress in sequencing efforts to characterize the mutations, their impacts in many variants have not been analyzed. The present article provides a substantial review of literature explaining the emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 circulating globally, key mutations in viral genome, and the possible impacts of these new mutations on prevention and therapeutic strategies currently administered to combat this pandemic. Rising infections, mortalities, and hospitalizations can possibly be tackled through mass vaccination, social distancing, better management of available healthcare infrastructure, and by prioritizing genome sequencing for better serosurveillance studies and community tracking.

Spike protein evolution in the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern: a case series from Northern Lombardy

The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) "Delta" is currently defined by PANGOLIN as a cluster of 33 different AY sublineages. Delta (in particular B.1.617.2) is largely and rapidly replacing the Alpha VOC as the dominant clade in most countries. To date, variations in the Spike protein of the Delta VOC have largely been limited. We report here the results of a genomic surveillance programme from Northern Italy. We identified several Delta sublineages harbouring mutations previously reported in GISAID at extremely low frequencies and in different combinations. Two patients (one of them vaccinated) tested positive for a Delta sublineage harbouring S71F, T250I, T572I and K854N. More patients tested positive for G769 V plus C1248F, A352S, and R158G and C1248F, respectively. Genomic surveillance of Delta variants should be encouraged to anticipate immune escape and deploy countermeasures.

COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, and implications for vaccination

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 Delta pandemic wave in India surged and declined within 3 months; cases then remained low despite the continued spread of Delta elsewhere. Here we aim to estimate key epidemiological characteristics of the Delta variant based on data from India and examine the underpinnings of its dynamics.

METHODS

We utilize multiple datasets and model-inference methods to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020 - June 2021. We further use model estimates to retrospectively predict cases and deaths during July - mid-Oct 2021, under various vaccination and vaccine effectiveness (VE) settings to estimate the impact of vaccination and VE for non-Delta-infection recoverees.

FINDINGS

We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0 - 64.2%) of individuals with prior wildtype infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9 - 75.6%) more infectious than wildtype SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among those with prior non-Delta infection, particularly after the 1 ^st dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% vs. 30/67% baseline for the 1 ^st /2 ^nd dose). Counterfactual modeling indicates that high vaccination coverage for 1 ^st vaccine-dose in India (∼50% by mid-Oct 2021) combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July - mid-Oct 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, infection seasonality, and high coverage of 1-dose vaccination likely all contributed to pandemic dynamics in India during 2021. Given the shortage of COVID-19 vaccines globally and boosting of VE, for populations with high prior infection rates, prioritizing the first vaccine-dose may protect more people.

RESEARCH IN CONTEXT

Evidence before this study: We searched PubMed for studies published through Nov 3, 2021 on the Delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variant that focused on three areas: 1) transmissibility [search terms: ("Delta variant" OR "B.1.617") AND ("transmission rate" OR "growth rate" OR "secondary attack rate" OR "transmissibility")]; 2) immune response ([search terms: ("Delta variant" OR "B.1.617") AND ("immune evas" OR "immune escape")]; and 3) vaccine effectiveness ([search terms: ("Delta variant" OR "B.1.617") AND ("vaccine effectiveness" OR "vaccine efficacy" OR "vaccination")]. Our search returned 256 papers, from which we read the abstracts and identified 54 relevant studies.Forty-two studies addressed immune evasion and/or vaccine effectiveness. Around half (n=19) of these studies measured the neutralizing ability of convalescent sera and/or vaccine sera against Delta and most reported some reduction (around 2-to 8-fold) compared to ancestral variants. The remainder (n=23) used field observations (often with a test-negative or cohort-design) and reported lower VE against infection but similar VE against hospitalization or death. Together, these laboratory and field observations consistently indicate that Delta can evade preexisting immunity. In addition, five studies reported higher B-cell and/or T-cell vaccine-induced immune response among recovered vaccinees than naïve vaccinees, suggesting potential boosting of pre-existing immunity; however, all studies were based on small samples (n = 10 to 198 individuals).Sixteen studies examined transmissibility, including 1) laboratory experiments (n=6) showing that Delta has higher affinity to the cell receptor, fuses membranes more efficiently, and/or replicates faster than other SARS-CoV-2 variants, providing biological mechanisms for its higher transmissibility; 2) field studies (n=5) showing higher rates of breakthrough infections by Delta and/or higher viral load among Delta infections than other variants; and 3) modeling/mixed studies (n=5) using genomic or case data to estimate the growth rate or reproduction number, reporting a 60-120% increase. Only one study jointly estimated the increase in transmissibility (1.3-1.7-fold, 50% CI) and immune evasion (10-50%, 50% CI); this study also reported a 27.5% (25/91) reinfection rate by Delta.Added value of this study: We utilize observed pandemic dynamics and the differential vaccination coverage for two vaccine doses in India, where the Delta variant was first identified, to estimate the epidemiological properties of Delta and examine the impact of prior non-Delta infection on immune boosting at the population level. We estimate that Delta variant can escape immunity from prior wildtype infection roughly one-third of the time and is around 60% more infectious than wildtype SARS-CoV-2. In addition, our analysis suggests the large increase in population receiving their first vaccine dose (∼50% by end of Oct 2021) combined with the boosting effect of vaccination for non-Delta infection recoverees likely mitigated epidemic intensity in India during July - Oct 2021.Implications of all the available evidence: Our analysis reconstructs the interplay and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, infection seasonality, Delta variant emergence, and vaccination on COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India. Modeling findings support prioritizing the first vaccine dose in populations with high prior infection rates, given vaccine shortages.