Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies

Heterogeneity in elimination efforts could increase the risk of resurgence of lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Progress in lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination is spatially heterogeneous in many endemic countries, which may lead to resurgence in areas that have achieved elimination. Understanding the drivers and consequences of such heterogeneity could help inform strategies to reach global LF elimination goals by 2030. This study assesses whether differences in age-specific compliance with mass drug administration (MDA) could explain LF prevalence patterns in southeastern Madagascar and explores how spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and age-specific MDA compliance may affect the risk of LF resurgence after transmission interruption.

METHODOLOGY

We used LYMFASIM model with parameters in line with the context of southeastern Madagascar and explored a wide range of scenarios with different MDA compliance for adults and children (40-100%) to estimate the proportion of elimination, non-elimination and resurgence events associated with each scenario. Finally, we evaluated the risk of resurgence associated with different levels of migration (2-6%) from surrounding districts combined with varying levels of LF microfilaria (mf) prevalence (0-24%) during that same study period.

RESULTS

Differences in MDA compliance between adults and children better explained the observed heterogeneity in LF prevalence for these age groups than differences in exposure alone. The risk of resurgence associated with differences in MDA compliance scenarios ranged from 0 to 19% and was highest when compliance was high for children (e.g. 90%) and low for adults (e.g. 50%). The risk of resurgence associated with migration was generally higher, exceeding 60% risk for all the migration levels explored (2-6% per year) when mf prevalence in the source districts was between 9% and 20%.

CONCLUSION

Gaps in the implementation of LF elimination programme can increase the risk of resurgence and undermine elimination efforts. In Madagascar, districts that have not attained elimination pose a significant risk for those that have achieved it. More research is needed to help guide LF elimination programme on the optimal strategies for surveillance and control that maximize the chances to sustain elimination and avoid resurgence.

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

METHODS

We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.

RESULTS

Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030.

METHODS

Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level.

RESULTS

Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames.

METHODS

Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting.

RESULTS

For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

Zambia: A Narrative Review of Success and Challenges in Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination

The establishment of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) to stop the transmission of infection has significantly reduced the incidence of lymphatic filariasis, a debilitating mosquito-borne neglected tropical disease. The primary strategies that have been employed include mass drug administration (MDA) of anthelminthics and morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP). While some countries have been able to reach elimination status in Africa, there is still active transmission of LF in Zambia. The nematode responsible for the disease is Wuchereria bancrofti, which is transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes. To alleviate the suffering of those infected by the disease, the Zambian Ministry of Health launched a program to eliminate LF as a public health problem in 2003. This project reviewed the efforts to achieve the elimination of LF in Zambia, past and present government policies, and the anticipated challenges. MDAs have been conducted since 2014 and coverage has been between 87% and 92%. Zambia has now moved towards pre-transmission assessment surveys (PRETAS) and transmission assessment surveys (TAS). MMDP is a major priority and planned to be conducted between 2022 and 2026. COVID-19 presented a new challenge in the control of LF, while climate change, immigration, co-infections, and funding limitations will complicate further progress.

Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Studies assessing the indirect impact of COVID-19 using mathematical models have increased in recent years. This scoping review aims to identify modelling studies assessing the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 and to summarise the characteristics of disruption and the models used to assess the disruptions.

METHODS

Eligible studies were included if they used any models to assess the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on any health services. Articles published from January 2020 to December 2022 were identified from PubMed, Embase and CINAHL, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, modelling and healthcare disruptions. Two reviewers independently extracted the data in four domains. A descriptive analysis of the included studies was performed under the format of a narrative report.

RESULTS

This scoping review has identified a total of 52 modelling studies that employed several models (n=116) to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services. The majority of the models were simulation models (n=86; 74.1%). Studies covered a wide range of health conditions from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases. COVID-19 has been reported to disrupt supply of health services, demand for health services and social change affecting factors that influence health. The most common outcomes reported in the studies were clinical outcomes such as mortality and morbidity. Twenty-five studies modelled various mitigation strategies; maintaining critical services by ensuring resources and access to services are found to be a priority for reducing the overall impact.

CONCLUSION

A number of models were used to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services on various outcomes. There is a need for collaboration among stakeholders to enhance the usefulness of any modelling. Future studies should consider disparity issues for more comprehensive findings that could ultimately facilitate policy decision-making to maximise benefits to all.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on People With Lymphedema in an Endemic Area for Lymphatic Filariasis in Brazil

Objectives: To investigate the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on lymphedema patients from an endemic area of lymphatic filariasis. Methods: The study descriptive compared sociodemographic and clinical aspects, risk of falling and quality of life, prior and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 28 lymphedema patients, older than 18 years old and under investigation of filarial infection. For the evaluation of functional mobility, the Time Up and Go test and The Medical Outcome Study Short Form-36 Health for quality of life, was used. Results: An increase in interdigital and dermal lesions, a higher frequency of acute dermatolymphangioadenitis crises and risk of falling, worsening of quality of life in the domains of physical functioning, general health, vitality, and mental health during the pandemic was observed. Conclusion: Our findings of clinical worsening and quality of life of patients during the COVID-19 pandemic indicate the need to reinforce the goal of the Lymphatic Filariasis Program regarding the follow-up of these patients in the actions of the Global Program for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis, due to the discontinuity in the care during the pandemic.

Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

Background

In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect.

Methods

For seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets.

Findings

We show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2–3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding.

Interpretation

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Antigens in a Multiplex Bead Assay for Integrated Serological Surveillance of Neglected Tropical and Other Diseases

Serosurveillance can provide estimates of population-level exposure to infectious pathogens and has been used extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simultaneous, serological testing for multiple pathogens can be done using bead-based immunoassays to add value to disease-specific serosurveys. We conducted a validation of four SARS-CoV-2 antigens-full-length spike protein, two receptor binding domain proteins, and the nucleocapsid protein-on our existing multiplex bead assay (MBA) for enteric diseases, malaria, and vaccine preventable diseases. After determining the optimal conditions for coupling the antigens to microsphere beads, the sensitivity and specificity of the assay were determined on two instruments (Luminex-200 and MAGPIX) when testing singly (monoplex) versus combined (multiplex). Sensitivity was assessed using plasma from 87 real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) positive persons collected in March-May of 2020 and ranged from 94.3% to 96.6% for the different testing conditions. Specificity was assessed using 98 plasma specimens collected prior to December 2019 and plasma from 19 rRT-PCR negative persons and ranged from 97.4% to 100%. The positive percent agreement was 93.8% to 97.9% using 48 specimens collected > 21 days post-symptom onset, while the negative percent agreement was ≥ 99% for all antigens. Test performance was similar using monoplex or multiplex testing. Integrating SARS-CoV-2 serology with other diseases of public health interest could add significant value to public health programs that have suffered severe programmatic setbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Harnessing Immune Evasion Strategy of Lymphatic Filariae: A Therapeutic Approach against Inflammatory and Infective Pathology

Human lymphatic filariae have evolved numerous immune evasion strategies to secure their long-term survival in a host. These strategies include regulation of pattern recognition receptors, mimicry with host glycans and immune molecules, manipulation of innate and adaptive immune cells, induction of apoptosis in effector immune cells, and neutralization of free radicals. This creates an anti-inflammatory and immunoregulatory milieu in the host: a modified Th2 immune response. Therefore, targeting filarial immunomodulators and manipulating the filariae-driven immune system against the filariae can be a potential therapeutic and prophylactic strategy. Filariae-derived immunosuppression can also be exploited to treat other inflammatory diseases and immunopathologic states of parasitic diseases, such as cerebral malaria, and to prevent leishmaniasis. This paper reviews immunomodulatory mechanisms acquired by these filariae for their own survival and their potential application in the development of novel therapeutic approaches against parasitic and inflammatory diseases. Insight into the intricate network of host immune-parasite interactions would aid in the development of effective immune-therapeutic options for both infectious and immune-pathological diseases.

Mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis elimination amidst COVID-19 pandemic in Odisha, India: A step towards achieving SDG-3

Sustainable Development Goal-3 (SDG) aims to eliminate lymphatic filariasis by 2030 through >65% coverage and compliance of mass drug administration (MDA), the preventive chemotherapy strategy of delivering anthelminthic drugs. However, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted such programmes, yet MDA was administered during February 2021 in Odisha, India. We aimed to assess the coverage and compliance of the present round of MDA amidst the pandemic and explore factors for non-compliance in Cuttack district of Odisha, a filariasis endemic area. Community-based participants enrolled through multistage stratified sampling were administered a semi-structured questionnaire following COVID-19 protocols. The coverage of MDA was 93.2% whereas consumption was 73.7%. Participants reported that healthcare workers were motivated and satisfactorily explained the benefits of MDA but still fear of side-effects was the major cause of non-compliance. Nonetheless, this recent round of MDA was effective, despite challenges posed by the ongoing pandemic.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

NKp46+ natural killer cells develop an activated/memory-like phenotype and contribute to innate immunity against experimental filarial infection

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are major neglected tropical diseases affecting over 90 million people worldwide with painful and profoundly disfiguring pathologies (such as lymphoedema or blindness). Type 2 inflammation is a hallmark of filarial nematode tissue infection and is implicated both in eosinophil dependent immunity and lymphatic or ocular immunopathologies. Type-2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) are known to play an important role in the initiation of type 2 inflammation in helminth infection. We therefore tracked comparative IL-12Rβ2⁺ ILC1, ST2⁺ ILC2 and NKp46⁺ natural killer (NK) innate lymphoid cell population expansions during Brugia malayi experimental peritoneal filarial infections using either immunocompetent or immunodeficient mice. In immunocompetent BALB/c animals, NKp46⁺ NK cells rapidly expanded representing over 90% of the ILC population in the first week of infection, whereas, surprisingly, ST2⁺ ILC2 failed to expand. NKp46⁺ NK cell expansions were confirmed in RAG2 deficient mice lacking adaptive immunity. Ablation of the NKp46⁺ NK cell compartment in RAG2 common gamma chain (gc) mice led to increased susceptibility to chronic adult B. malayi infection. This data was recapitulated using an Onchocerca ochengi male worm peritoneal implant model. When NKp46⁺ NK cells were depleted in RAG2 deficient mice using anti-NKp46 or asialo GM1 antibody injections over the first five weeks of B. malayi infection, susceptibility to adult B. malayi infection was significantly increased by 2-3 fold with concomitant impairment in eosinophil or neutrophil recruitments. Finally, we demonstrate that in RAG2 deficient mice, drug clearance of a primary adult B. malayi infection followed by challenge infection leads to resistance against early larval B. malayi establishment. This innate resistance is associated with bolstered NK and eosinophils whereby NKp46⁺ NK cells express markers of memory-like/enhanced activation (increased expression of interferon gamma and Ly6C). Our data promotes a novel functional role for NKp46⁺ NK cells in immunoprotection against experimental primary and secondary filarial infection which can proceed in the absence of adaptive immune regulation.

Safely resuming neglected tropical disease control activities during COVID-19: Perspectives from Nigeria and Guinea

Since its early spread in early 2020, the disease caused by the novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused mass disruptions to health services. These have included interruptions to programs that aimed to prevent, control, and eliminate neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) released interim guidelines recommending the temporary cessation of mass drug administration (MDA), community-based surveys, and case detection, while encouraging continuation of morbidity management and vector control where possible. Over the course of the following months, national programs and implementing partners contributed to COVID-19 response efforts, while also beginning to plan for resumption of NTD control activities. To understand the challenges, opportunities, and recommendations for maximizing continuity of disease control during public health emergencies, we sought perspectives from Nigeria and Guinea on the process of restarting NTD control efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through semistructured interviews with individuals involved with NTD control at the local and national levels, we identified key themes and common perspectives between the 2 countries, as well as observations that were specific to each. Overall, interviewees stressed the challenges posed by COVID-19 interruptions, particularly with respect to delays to activities and related knock-on impacts, such as drug expiry and prolonged elimination timelines, as well as concerns related to funding. However, respondents in both countries also highlighted the benefits of a formal risk assessment approach, particularly in terms of encouraging information sharing and increasing coordination and advocacy. Recommendations included ensuring greater availability of historical data to allow better monitoring of how future emergencies affect NTD control progress; continuing to use risk assessment approaches in the future; and identifying mechanisms for sharing lessons learned and innovations between countries as a means of advancing postpandemic health systems and disease control capacity strengthening.

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a group of medically diverse diseases that affect over 1 billion people, predominantly in tropical and subtropical areas, and can cause severe long-term disability and even death. Controlled through mass drug administration (MDA), morbidity management, and/or vector control, NTD programs work closely with communities to identify cases, conduct surveys, and achieve target coverage levels for interventions. The advent of the pandemic of the novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in early 2020 led to major disruptions to all facets of life, including health services, with NTD control efforts no exception. Per interim guidelines released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020, most control activities were halted and only resumed much later in 2020. We sought perspectives from NTD control stakeholders at the subnational and national levels in Guinea and Nigeria regarding the process of planning and executing the resumption of NTD activities to identify challenges, opportunities, and recommendations that might be applicable both to other countries that have experienced disruptions to NTD control efforts during the pandemic and to increase the resilience of NTD programs in the face of future public health emergencies.

Towards global control of parasitic diseases in the Covid-19 era: One Health and the future of multisectoral global health governance

Human parasitic infections—including malaria, and many neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)—have long represented a Gordian knot in global public health: ancient, persistent, and exceedingly difficult to control. With the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic substantially interrupting control programmes worldwide, there are now mounting fears that decades of progress in controlling global parasitic infections will be undone. With Covid-19 moreover exposing deep vulnerabilities in the global health system, the current moment presents a watershed opportunity to plan future efforts to reduce the global morbidity and mortality associated with human parasitic infections. In this chapter, we first provide a brief epidemiologic overview of the progress that has been made towards the control of parasitic diseases between 1990 and 2019, contrasting these fragile gains with the anticipated losses as a result of Covid-19. We then argue that the complementary aspirations of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Health Organization (WHO)’s 2030 targets for parasitic disease control may be achieved by aligning programme objectives within the One Health paradigm, recognizing the interdependence between humans, animals, and the environment. In so doing, we note that while the WHO remains the preeminent international institution to address some of these transdisciplinary concerns, its underlying challenges with funding, authority, and capacity are likely to reverberate if left unaddressed. To this end, we conclude by reimagining how models of multisectoral global health governance—combining the WHO's normative and technical leadership with greater support in allied policy-making areas—can help sustain future malaria and NTD elimination efforts.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.