Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat Under Growing Conditions of Quebec, Canada

Key Global Actions for Mycotoxin Management in Wheat and Other Small Grains

Mycotoxins in small grains are a significant and long-standing problem. These contaminants may be produced by members of several fungal genera, including Alternaria, Aspergillus, Fusarium, Claviceps, and Penicillium. Interventions that limit contamination can be made both pre-harvest and post-harvest. Many problems and strategies to control them and the toxins they produce are similar regardless of the location at which they are employed, while others are more common in some areas than in others. Increased knowledge of host-plant resistance, better agronomic methods, improved fungicide management, and better storage strategies all have application on a global basis. We summarize the major pre- and post-harvest control strategies currently in use. In the area of pre-harvest, these include resistant host lines, fungicides and their application guided by epidemiological models, and multiple cultural practices. In the area of post-harvest, drying, storage, cleaning and sorting, and some end-product processes were the most important at the global level. We also employed the Nominal Group discussion technique to identify and prioritize potential steps forward and to reduce problems associated with human and animal consumption of these grains. Identifying existing and potentially novel mechanisms to effectively manage mycotoxin problems in these grains is essential to ensure the safety of humans and domesticated animals that consume these grains.

Fusarium head blight in wheat: contemporary status and molecular approaches

Fusarium head blight (FHB) disease that occurs in wheat is caused by Fusarium graminearum and is a major risk to wheat yield. Although several research efforts focusing on FHB have been conducted in the past several decades, conditions have become more critical due to the increase in its virulent forms. In such a scenario, conferring complete resistance in plants seems to be difficult for handling this issue. The phenotyping for FHB and finding a solution for it at the genetic level comprises a long-term process as FHB infection is largely affected by environmental conditions. Modern molecular strategies have played a crucial role in revealing the host-pathogen interaction in FHB. The integration of molecular biology-based methods such as genome-wide association studies and marker-based genomic selection has provided potential cultivars for breeding programs. In this review, we aim at outlining the contemporary status of the studies conducted on FHB in wheat. The influence of FHB in wheat on animals and human health is also discussed. In addition, a summary of the advancement in the molecular technologies for identifying and developing the FHB-resistant wheat genetic resources is provided. It also suggests the future measures that are required to reduce the world's vulnerability to FHB which was one of the main goals of the US Wheat and Barley Scab Initiative.

Fusarium head blight and mycotoxins in wheat: prevention and control strategies across the food chain

With 744 million metric tons produced in 2017/2018, bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) and durum wheat (Triticum durum) are the second most widely produced cereal on a global basis. Prevention or control of wheat diseases may have an enormous impact on global food security and safety. Fusarium head blight is an economically debilitating disease of wheat that reduces the quantity and quality of grain harvested, and may lead to contamination with the mycotoxin deoxynivalenol, which affects the health of humans and domesticated animals. Current climate change scenarios predict an increase in the number of epidemics caused by this disease. Multiple strategies are available for managing the disease including cultural practices, planting less-susceptible cultivars, crop rotation, and chemical and biological controls. None of these strategies, however, is completely effective by itself, and an integrated approach incorporating multiple controls simultaneously is the only effective strategy to limit the disease and reduce deoxynivalenol contamination in human food and animal feed chains. This review identifies the available tools and strategies for mitigating the damage that can result from Fusarium head blight.

Functional Data Analysis of Weather Variables Linked to Fusarium Head Blight Epidemics in the United States

In past efforts, input weather variables for Fusarium head blight (FHB) prediction models in the United States were identified after following some version of the window-pane algorithm, which discretizes a continuous weather time series into fixed-length windows before searching for summary variables associated with FHB risk. Functional data analysis, on the other hand, reconstructs the assumed continuous process (represented by a series of recorded weather data) by using smoothing functions, and is an alternative way of working with time series data with respect to FHB risk. Our objective was to functionally model weather-based time series data linked to 865 observations of FHB (covering 16 states and 31 years in total), classified as epidemics (FHB disease index ≥ 10%) and nonepidemics (FHB disease index < 10%). Altogether, 94 different time series variables were modeled by penalized cubic B-splines for the smoothing function, from 120 days pre-anthesis to 20 days post-anthesis. Functional mean curves, standard deviations, and first derivatives were plotted for FHB epidemics relative to nonepidemics. Function-on-scalar regressions assessed the temporal trends of the magnitude and significance of the mean difference between functionally represented weather time series associated with FHB epidemics and nonepidemics. The mean functional weather-variable curve for epidemics started to deviate, in general, from that for nonepidemics as early as 40 days pre-anthesis for several weather variables. The greatest deviations were often near anthesis, the period of maximum susceptibility of wheat to FHB-causing fungi. The most consistent separations between the mean functional curves were seen with the daily averages of moisture-related variables (such as average relative humidity) and with variables summarizing the daily variation in temperature (as opposed to the daily mean). Functional data analysis was useful for extending our knowledge of relationships between weather variables and FHB epidemics.

Case Study of an Epidemiological Approach Dissecting Historical Soybean Sclerotinia Stem Rot Observations and Identifying Environmental Predictors of Epidemics and Yield Loss

Sclerotinia sclerotiorum is a significant threat to soybean production worldwide. In this study, an epidemiological approach was used to examine 11 years of historical data from a soybean management performance trial in order to advance our understanding of Sclerotinia stem rot (SSR) development and to identify environmental predictors of SSR epidemics and associated yield losses. Recursive partitioning analysis suggested that average air temperature and total precipitation in July were the most significant variables associated with disease severity. High levels of SSR disease severity index were observed when the average temperature in July was below 19.5°C and total precipitation in July was moderate, between 20 and 108.5 mm. A biphasic sigmoidal curve accurately described the relationship between SSR disease severity index (DSI) and yield, with a DSI threshold of 22, below which minimal yield loss was observed. A 10% increase in the DSI, from 22.0 to 24.2, led to an 11% decrease in yield, from 3,308.14 to 2,951.29 kg/ha. Also, a yield threshold (3,353 kg/ha) that was higher than the annual U.S. average soybean yield (3,039.7 kg/ha) was suggested as an expected yield under low or no SSR pressure in the U.S. Midwest. These thresholds can allow soybean stakeholders to assess the value of disease control and establish an SSR baseline for cost-effective management to protect yields. Because S. sclerotiorum has more than 400 plant host species, and because having quantitative information concerning crop losses is crucial for decision making, this study shows the usefulness of historical data on SSR and, hence, can serve as a model in other SSR pathosystems (canola, dry bean, potato, pea, and so on).

Evaluating the Performance of a Relative Humidity-Based Warning System for Sooty Blotch and Flyspeck in Iowa

A warning system for the sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) fungal disease complex of apple, developed originally for use in the southeastern United States, was modified to provide more reliable assessment of SBFS risk in Iowa. Modeling results based on previous research in Iowa and Wisconsin had suggested replacing leaf wetness duration with cumulative hours of relative humidity (RH) ≥97% as the weather input to the SBFS warning system. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the performance of a RH-based SBFS warning system, and to assess the potential economic benefits for its use in Iowa. The warning system was evaluated in two separate sets of trials-trial 1 during 2010 and 2011, and trial 2 during 2013-2015-using action thresholds based on cumulative hours of RH ≥97% and ≥90%, respectively, in conjunction with two different fungicide regimes. The warning system was compared with a traditional calendar-based system that specified spraying at predetermined intervals of 10 to 14 days. In trial 1, use of the RH ≥97% threshold caused substantial differences between two RH sensors in recording number of hours exceeding the threshold. When both RH thresholds were compared for 2013-2015, on average, RH ≥90% resulted in a 53% reduction in variation of cumulative hours between two identical RH sensors placed adjacent to each other in an apple tree canopy. Although both the SBFS warning system and the calendar-based system resulted in equivalent control of SBFS, the warning system required fewer fungicide sprays than the calendar-based system, with an average of 3.8 sprays per season (min = 2; max = 5) vs. 6.4 sprays per season (min = 5; max = 8), respectively. The two fungicide regimes provided equivalent SBFS control when used in conjunction with the warning system. A partial budget analysis showed that using the SBFS warning system with a threshold of RH ≥90% was cost effective for orchard sizes of >1 ha. The revised warning system has potential to become a valuable decision support tool for Midwest apple growers because it reduces fungicide costs while protecting apples as effectively as a calendar-based spray schedule. The next step toward implementation of the SBFS warning system in the North Central U.S. should be multiyear field testing in commercial orchards throughout the region.

Fusarium Mycotoxins in Swiss Wheat: A Survey of Growers' Samples between 2007 and 2014 Shows Strong Year and Minor Geographic Effects

To assess the occurrence of Fusarium toxins in wheat in Switzerland, an eight-year survey was conducted by analysing a total of 686 harvest samples from growers using LC-MS/MS. Between 2007 and 2010, 527 samples were obtained from 17 cantons. Between 2011 and 2014, 159 samples were collected from the canton Berne. The most frequent toxins detected were deoxynivalenol (DON), zearalenone (ZEA) and nivalenol (NIV). The overall mean DON content in all samples was 607 µg/kg, and 11% exceeded the European limit for unprocessed cereals for foodstuffs (1250 µg/kg). For ZEA (mean 39 µg/kg), 7% exceeded the respective limit (100 µg/kg), and the mean content of NIV (no limit established) was 15 µg/kg. Between the years, the ratio of mycotoxin-contaminated samples ranged between 52% and 98% for DON, 9% and 43% for ZEA and 0% and 49% for NIV. The yearly mean contents varied substantially between 68 and 1310 µg/kg for DON, 5 and 56 µg/kg for ZEA and 6 and 29 µg/kg for NIV. The geographic origin showed a significant effect on DON and ZEA contamination, but was inconsistent between the years. This study has shown that the majority of Swiss-produced wheat is, in terms of Fusarium toxins, fit for human consumption and feed purposes. Nevertheless, depending on the year, high toxin contents can be expected, an issue that growers, cereal collection centres and the food industry have to deal with to ensure food and feed safety.

The Evidential Basis of Decision Making in Plant Disease Management

The evidential basis for disease management decision making is provided by data relating to risk factors. The decision process involves an assessment of the evidence leading to taking (or refraining from) action on the basis of a prediction. The primary objective of the decision process is to identify-at the time the decision is made-the control action that provides the best predicted end-of-season outcome, calculated in terms of revenue or another appropriate metric. Data relating to disease risk factors may take a variety of forms (e.g., continuous, discrete, categorical) on measurement scales in a variety of units. Log₁₀-likelihood ratios provide a principled basis for the accumulation of evidence based on such data and allow predictions to be made via Bayesian updating of prior probabilities.