COVID-19 cluster surveillance using exposure data collected from routine contact tracing: The genomic validation of a novel informatics-based approach to outbreak detection in England

Contact tracing was used globally to prevent onwards transmission of COVID-19. Tracing contacts alone is unlikely to be sufficient in controlling community transmission, due to the pre-symptomatic, overdispersed and airborne nature of COVID-19 transmission. We describe and demonstrate the validity of a national enhanced contact tracing programme for COVID-19 cluster surveillance in England. Data on cases occurring between October 2020 and September 2021 were extracted from the national contact tracing system. Exposure clusters were identified algorithmically by matching ≥2 cases attending the same event, identified by matching postcode and event category within a 7-day rolling window. Genetic validity was defined as exposure clusters with ≥2 cases from different households with identical viral sequences. Exposure clusters were fuzzy matched to the national incident management system (HPZone) by postcode and setting description. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to determine cluster characteristics associated with genetic validity. Over a quarter of a million (269,470) exposure clusters were identified. Of the eligible clusters, 25% (3,306/13,008) were genetically valid. 81% (2684/3306) of these were not recorded on HPZone and were identified on average of one day earlier than incidents recorded on HPZone. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that exposure clusters occurring in workplaces (aOR = 5·10, 95% CI 4·23-6·17) and education (aOR = 3·72, 95% CI 3·08-4·49) settings were those most strongly associated with genetic validity. Cluster surveillance using enhanced contact tracing in England was a timely, comprehensive and systematic approach to the detection of transmission events occurring in community settings. Cluster surveillance can provide intelligence to stakeholders to support the assessment and management of clusters of COVID-19 at a local, regional, and national level. Future systems should include predictive modelling and network analysis to support risk assessment of exposure clusters to improve the effectiveness of enhanced contract tracing for outbreak detection.

T-wave morphology abnormalities in the STREAM stage 1 trial

BACKGROUND

Shorter regimens for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) have non-inferior efficacy compared with longer regimens, but QT prolongation is a concern. T-wave morphology abnormalities may be a predictor of QT prolongation.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

STREAM Stage 1 was a randomized controlled trial in rifampicin-resistant TB, comparing short and long regimens. All participants had regular ECGs. QT/QTcF prolongation (≥500 ms or increase in ≥60 ms from baseline) was more common on the short regimen which contained high-dose moxifloxacin and clofazimine. Blinded ECGs were selected from the baseline, early (weeks 1-4), and late (weeks 12-36) time points. T-wave morphology was categorized as normal or abnormal (notched, asymmetric, flat-wave, flat peak, or broad). Differences between groups were assessed using Chi-Square tests (paired/unpaired, as appropriate).

RESULTS

Two-hundred participants with available ECGs at relevant times were analyzed (QT prolongation group n = 82; non-prolongation group n = 118). At baseline, 23% (45/200) of participants displayed abnormal T-waves, increasing to 45% (90/200, p < 0.001) at the late time point. Abnormalities were more common in participants allocated the Short regimen (75/117, 64%) than the Long (14/38, 36.8%, p = 0.003); these occurred prior to QT/QTcF ≥500 ms in 53% of the participants (Long 2/5; Short 14/25).

CONCLUSIONS

T-wave abnormalities may help identify patients at risk of QT prolongation on DR-TB treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (CT.gov identifier: NCT02409290). Current Controlled Trial number, ISRCTN78372190.

The ESCAPE Open-source Software and Service Repository

Purpose

The purpose of the ESCAPE Open-source Software and Service Repository (OSSR) is to provide a central location for the dissemination and use of trusted open-source software in the fields of astronomy, astroparticle physics, and particle physics. The repository allows users to easily access and download tools and services developed within the community, and to contribute their own tools and services.

Methods

The ESCAPE project has set up a curated repository of software that provides tools and an environment to make it easy for users to find and download the software and services that they need. The repository is regularly updated and is maintained by a curation board, ensuring that the software and services are reliable and up-to-date. The curation and onboarding process makes the OSSR a trustworthy source of software that can be used for scientific analysis. The software included in the repository must include documentation and instructions and follow a set of modern best practices in software development. Training is provided to students and researchers to help them provide high-quality scientific software following modern software development practices.

Outcome

The OSSR currently contains a wide range of software and services, including those for data management, data analysis, and machine learning. These tools and services are used by researchers and other users around the world. The OSSR has proven to be an effective means for disseminating and providing open-source software and services developed by the ESCAPE project partners and welcomes contributions from the entire community.

Evaluating the impact on health outcomes of an event that resulted in a delay in contact tracing of COVID-19 cases in England, September 2020: an observational study

OBJECTIVE

In September 2020, 15 861 SARS-CoV-2 case records failed to upload from the Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) to the Contact Tracing Advisory Service (CTAS) tool, delaying the contact tracing of these cases. This study used CTAS data to determine the impact of this delay on population health outcomes: transmission events, hospitalisations and mortality. Previously, a modelling study suggested a substantial impact.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

England.

POPULATION

Individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and their reported contacts.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Secondary attack rates (SARs), hospitalisations and deaths among primary and secondary contacts were calculated, compared with all other concurrent, unaffected cases. Affected SGSS records were matched to CTAS records. Successive contacts and cases were identified and matched to hospital episode and mortality outcomes.

RESULTS

Initiation of contact tracing was delayed by 3 days on average in the primary cases in the delay group (6 days) compared with the control group (3 days). This was associated with lower completion of contact tracing: 80% (95% CI: 79% to 81%) in delay group and 83% (95% CI: 83% to 84%) in control group. There was some evidence to suggest increased transmission to non-household contacts among those affected by the delay. The SAR for non-household contacts was higher among secondary contacts in the delay group than the control group (delay group: 7.9%, 95% CI: 6.5% to 9.2%; control group: 5.9%, 95% CI: 5.3% to 6.6%). There did not appear to be a significant difference between the delay and control groups in the odds of hospitalisation (crude OR: 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9 to 1.2)) or death (crude OR: 0.7 (95% CI: 0.1 to 4.0)) among secondary contacts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that the delay in contact tracing had a limited impact on population health outcomes; however, contact tracing was not completed for all individuals, so some transmission events might not be captured.

Evaluating the translation of implementation science to clinical artificial intelligence: a bibliometric study of qualitative research

Introduction

Whilst a theoretical basis for implementation research is seen as advantageous, there is little clarity over if and how the application of theories, models or frameworks (TMF) impact implementation outcomes. Clinical artificial intelligence (AI) continues to receive multi-stakeholder interest and investment, yet a significant implementation gap remains. This bibliometric study aims to measure and characterize TMF application in qualitative clinical AI research to identify opportunities to improve research practice and its impact on clinical AI implementation.

Methods

Qualitative research of stakeholder perspectives on clinical AI published between January 2014 and October 2022 was systematically identified. Eligible studies were characterized by their publication type, clinical and geographical context, type of clinical AI studied, data collection method, participants and application of any TMF. Each TMF applied by eligible studies, its justification and mode of application was characterized.

Results

Of 202 eligible studies, 70 (34.7%) applied a TMF. There was an 8-fold increase in the number of publications between 2014 and 2022 but no significant increase in the proportion applying TMFs. Of the 50 TMFs applied, 40 (80%) were only applied once, with the Technology Acceptance Model applied most frequently (n = 9). Seven TMFs were novel contributions embedded within an eligible study. A minority of studies justified TMF application (n = 51,58.6%) and it was uncommon to discuss an alternative TMF or the limitations of the one selected (n = 11,12.6%). The most common way in which a TMF was applied in eligible studies was data analysis (n = 44,50.6%). Implementation guidelines or tools were explicitly referenced by 2 reports (1.0%).

Conclusion

TMFs have not been commonly applied in qualitative research of clinical AI. When TMFs have been applied there has been (i) little consensus on TMF selection (ii) limited description of selection rationale and (iii) lack of clarity over how TMFs inform research. We consider this to represent an opportunity to improve implementation science's translation to clinical AI research and clinical AI into practice by promoting the rigor and frequency of TMF application. We recommend that the finite resources of the implementation science community are diverted toward increasing accessibility and engagement with theory informed practices. The considered application of theories, models and frameworks (TMF) are thought to contribute to the impact of implementation science on the translation of innovations into real-world care. The frequency and nature of TMF use are yet to be described within digital health innovations, including the prominent field of clinical AI. A well-known implementation gap, coined as the "AI chasm" continues to limit the impact of clinical AI on real-world care. From this bibliometric study of the frequency and quality of TMF use within qualitative clinical AI research, we found that TMFs are usually not applied, their selection is highly varied between studies and there is not often a convincing rationale for their selection. Promoting the rigor and frequency of TMF use appears to present an opportunity to improve the translation of clinical AI into practice.

Feasibility and evaluation of an emergency department-based general practitioner streaming and treatment service

RATIONALE

Offering a primary care service that can provide good quality primary care at emergency departments may reduce pressure on usual emergency department (ED) services.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the acceptability, satisfaction, and potential impacts of a co-located primary care service at an emergency department.

METHODS

This is a prospective feasibility study and service evaluation comprising a narrative summary of activity, satisfaction, well-being, and safety, and comparisons of wait times for ED services by patient category ('minor', 'majors', 'paediatric' or 'resus') before and during the service operation. Patients and staff were asked using semistructured interview topic guides about service perception, well-being, representation within 48 h, safety concerns, and/or satisfaction. Wait times for patient categories in usual ED care service were in secondary care electronic records. Pathway changes were captured under primary care electronic records.

RESULTS

Approximately 96% of general practitioner streaming and treatment (GPST) patients were seen within 1 h. There was a statistically significant reduction in ED patients with minor injuries or illnesses waiting >4 h for admission or discharge 'breaches' during the 3 months that GPST was operating compared with the previous 3 months (p ≤ 0.005). Wait times for other ED services did not significantly improve. A total of 769 walk-in patients received GPST consultation and 661 (86%) needed no further ED intervention. Fast discharge was a major determinant of patient satisfaction. No staff expressed dissatisfaction, but some suggested possible improvements in eligibility criteria and built environment design features.

CONCLUSION

Provision of GPST correlated with shorter waits for discharge from ED. Patient and staff experiences of GPST were positive.

Discovery of Clinical Candidate AZD0095, a Selective Inhibitor of Monocarboxylate Transporter 4 (MCT4) for Oncology

Due to increased reliance on glycolysis, which produces lactate, monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) are often upregulated in cancer. MCT4 is associated with the export of lactic acid from cancer cells under hypoxia, so inhibition of MCT4 may lead to cytotoxic levels of intracellular lactate. In addition, tumor-derived lactate is known to be immunosuppressive, so MCT4 inhibition may be of interest for immuno-oncology. At the outset, no potent and selective MCT4 inhibitors had been reported, but a screen identified a triazolopyrimidine hit, with no close structural analogues. Minor modifications to the triazolopyrimidine were made, alongside design of a constrained linker and broad SAR exploration of the biaryl tail to improve potency, physical properties, PK, and hERG. The resulting clinical candidate 15 (AZD0095) has excellent potency (1.3 nM), MCT1 selectivity (>1000×), secondary pharmacology, clean mechanism of action, suitable properties for oral administration in the clinic, and good preclinical efficacy in combination with cediranib.

ATM Regulates Differentiation of Myofibroblastic Cancer-Associated Fibroblasts and Can Be Targeted to Overcome Immunotherapy Resistance

Myofibroblastic cancer-associated fibroblast (myoCAF)-rich tumors generally contain few T cells and respond poorly to immune-checkpoint blockade. Although myoCAFs are associated with poor outcome in most solid tumors, the molecular mechanisms regulating myoCAF accumulation remain unclear, limiting the potential for therapeutic intervention. Here, we identify ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) as a central regulator of the myoCAF phenotype. Differentiating myofibroblasts in vitro and myoCAFs cultured ex vivo display activated ATM signaling, and targeting ATM genetically or pharmacologically could suppress and reverse differentiation. ATM activation was regulated by the reactive oxygen species-producing enzyme NOX4, both through DNA damage and increased oxidative stress. Targeting fibroblast ATM in vivo suppressed myoCAF-rich tumor growth, promoted intratumoral CD8 T-cell infiltration, and potentiated the response to anti-PD-1 blockade and antitumor vaccination. This work identifies a novel pathway regulating myoCAF differentiation and provides a rationale for using ATM inhibitors to overcome CAF-mediated immunotherapy resistance.

SIGNIFICANCE

ATM signaling supports the differentiation of myoCAFs to suppress T-cell infiltration and antitumor immunity, supporting the potential clinical use of ATM inhibitors in combination with checkpoint inhibition in myoCAF-rich, immune-cold tumors.

Understanding how the university curriculum impacts student wellbeing: a qualitative study

There is increasing pressure within universities to address student mental health. From a whole university or settings-based perspective, this could include curriculum-embedded approaches. There is little research about how this should work or what approaches might be most effective. Semi -structured interviews were conducted with fifty-seven undergraduate students from five disciplines (Psychology, English studies, Nursing, International Politics, and War Studies) to understand students' perspectives. Students reflected on wellbeing module content and, more broadly, on curriculum processes (teaching, pedagogy, assessment) within their degree. Reflexive thematic analysis was applied to transcripts, generating three themes: embedding wellbeing in the curriculum; assessment, challenge, and academic support; and social connection and interaction. The findings provide evidence for teaching, pedagogy, and assessment practices supporting higher education student wellbeing. These align with recommended good teaching practices, such as considering appropriate assessment methods followed by effective feedback. Students saw the benefits of being academically challenged if scaffolded appropriately. Strong peer connection, teacher-student interaction, and communication were crucial to learning and wellbeing. These findings provide implications for future curriculum design that can support learning and wellbeing.

Sperm cryopreservation for impaired spermatogenesis

Sperm cryopreservation for men with severely impaired spermatogenesis is one of the commonest reasons for short-term sperm storage, usually in advance of fertility treatment. Cryopreservation is generally very effective, although not all spermatozoa survive the process of freezing and thawing. This review considers various aspects of freezing sperm, including an overview of methods, appropriate use of cryoprotectants and practical considerations, as well as oxidative stress and mechanisms of cell cryodamage.

Predicting stress and mental wellbeing among doctoral researchers

BACKGROUND

Although mental health in higher education is increasingly recognised as a public health issue, postgraduate research students are often overlooked. Recent studies indicate a high prevalence of mental distress in this population.

AIMS

This study assesses the experience of doctoral researchers and identifies factors influencing mental wellbeing and perceived stress.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study examined how key demographic, individual and contextual factors related to stress and mental wellbeing in a sample of 431 doctoral researchers in the United Kingdom.

RESULTS

Respondents gave positive reports about their supervisory relationship and identified feeling confidently prepared for their work. Family support, good general health, sleep and low levels of self-depreciation predicted stronger mental wellbeing and lower levels of stress. Students who were confident about their future career and felt well prepared for their studies were less stressed and those who were achievement orientated had better mental wellbeing.

CONCLUSIONS

Focused attention on exploring career options and building confidence may help reduce stress among doctoral researchers. Taking steps to tackle the imposter phenomenon may help further. These could include addressing fear of failure, improving confidence in research ability and clarifying the role of doctoral researchers within the wider academic community.

ECG monitoring in STREAM Stage 1: can we identify those at increased risk of QT prolongation?

BACKGROUND: STREAM (Standardised Treatment Regimen of Anti-tuberculosis Drugs for Patients with Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis) Stage 1 was a randomised trial of a Short (9-month) regimen for rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB). QT or QTcF prolongation ≥500 ms occurred in 31 (11%) of 282 Short regimen participants. The frequent ECG monitoring employed might be challenging for treatment programmes. This analysis aimed to determine whether those at higher risk of severe QT prolongation could be identified early for more targeted monitoring.METHODS: Data from the first month of treatment were used to investigate whether participants were at risk of developing QT/QTcF ≥500 ms. QTcF increases from baseline at different time points were examined. Absolute QTcF measurements were categorised in 5 ms increments at each time-point. The most discriminating time points and QTcF cut-offs were combined to optimise sensitivity and specificity.RESULTS: Absolute QTcF values were more discriminating than magnitude of increase from baseline. More participants who developed QT/QTcF ≥500 ms had a QTcF of respectively ≥425 ms and ≥430 ms at 4 h and Week 3 (P < 0.05) than those who did not. By combining QTcF values ≥425 ms at 4 h and ≥430 ms at Week 3, we identified high-risk participants with 97% sensitivity and 99% negative predictive value.CONCLUSION: Reduced ECG monitoring may be possible for many Short regimen participants.

The impact of clinical simulation on the development of advanced practice skills

This article considers the findings of a qualitative research study into the impact of simulation on the development of advanced clinical practitioners' skills and knowledge.

STUDY AIM

To explore simulated learning through the eyes of trainee and trained advanced clinical practitioners (ACPs) and consider its potential in supporting their development.

METHOD

This qualitative research study explored the experiences of trained and trainee ACP volunteers undertaking a structured simulated event provided by a local acute hospital trust simulation team. A questionnaire (n=10) and a focus group (n=4) acted as the data gathering tools.

RESULTS

Although simulation can be daunting for the participants, the overwhelming outcome was positive. Participants stated that they gained confidence and suggested that simulation offered a safe place to practise the challenging scenarios that occur in the clinical environment. Additionally, they emphasised that simulation provided a place to network and receive constructive feedback that was non-judgemental, and which helped them to develop clinical knowledge and appreciate their limitations.

CONCLUSION

Simulation is a valuable addition to the education and development of ACPs. It should be considered for inclusion within the educational curriculum as a supplement to theoretical knowledge and to the structured clinical supervision provided within the clinical environment.

O03 ST97 Staphylococcus aureus and oxacillin resistance: an emerging challenge for microbiologists?

Background

The presence of cefoxitin and oxacillin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus isolates is suggestive of methicillin resistance (MRSA) with molecular detection of the mecA or mecC genes providing confirmation. The UK SMI and EUCAST guidelines for MRSA detection describe a subset of strains that exhibit reduced susceptibility to oxacillin and cefoxitin, though negative for mecA and mecC genes—frequently named borderline oxacillin-resistant S. aureus (BORSA). Local data noted a number of S. aureus isolates that matched the above phenotype leading to laboratory, clinical and epidemiological questions.

Methods

Routine samples were collected between August 2020 and April 2021 at West Midlands Health Security Agency Laboratory, Birmingham. If provisional results suggested an MRSA isolate, the following confirmatory tests were undertaken. Locally, clinical samples underwent susceptibility testing with cefoxitin disc diffusion and oxacillin gradient diffusion (MRSA screens) or Vitek 2 (non-MRSA screens). Isolates with discrepant results [susceptible to cefoxitin; resistant to oxacillin (MIC >2 mg/L) or vice versa] were sent to the reference laboratory at Colindale, UK for further testing, which included mecA or mecC gene detection by PCR and serotyping with Illumina sequencing for all isolates.

Results

In total, 53 isolates were sent to the reference lab of which 22 were confirmed to have an ST97 serotype. All 53 were negative by PCR for mecA and mecC genes. For the 22 isolates of ST97, local oxacillin MIC values ranged from 2 to 6 mg/L. Cefoxitin susceptibility was confirmed locally in all isolates. The 22 isolates were from 15 patients; wound swabs (n = 18); blood culture (n = 1), sputum (n = 1) and MRSA screen (n = 2). Median patient age was 48 years (IQR 38–59) with 5 being female and 10 male. A history of injecting drug use was documented in 53% (8/15).

Conclusions

BORSA remains a problem from a laboratory, clinical and infection control perspective. This work raises two important questions: what is the most appropriate local laboratory testing pathway and what is the clinical relevance of these isolates (i.e. can flucloxacillin be relied upon in treatment)? The ST97 serotype appears to be associated with skin and soft tissue infection and may be linked to people who inject drugs.

QT prolongation in the STREAM Stage 1 Trial

BACKGROUND: STREAM (Standardized Treatment Regimen of Anti-TB Drugs for Patients with MDR-TB) Stage 1 demonstrated non-inferior efficacy of a shortened regimen (the Short regimen) for rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) compared to the contemporaneous WHO-recommended regimen. This regimen included moxifloxacin and clofazimine, known to cause QT prolongation, and severe prolongation was more common on the Short regimen. Here we investigate risk factors for QT prolongation with the Short regimen.METHODS: Data from patients prescribed the Short regimen (n = 282) were analysed to identify risk factors for severe QT prolongation (QT/QTcF ≥500 ms or ≥60 ms increase in QTcF from baseline).RESULTS: Of the 282 patients on the Short regimen, 94 (33.3%) developed severe QT prolongation: 31 QT/QTcF ≥500 ms; 92 experienced ≥60 ms QTcF increase from baseline. The median time to QT/QTcF ≥500 ms was 20 weeks (IQR 8-28), and the time to ≥60 ms increase from baseline was 18 weeks (IQR 8-28). Prolongation ≥500 ms was most frequent in patients from Mongolia (10/22, 45.5%) compared with 3.5-11.9% at other sites, P < 0.001. Higher baseline QTcF increased risk of prolongation to ≥500 ms (QTcF ≥400 ms: OR 5.99, 95% CI 2.04-17.62).CONCLUSION: One third of patients on the Short regimen developed severe QT prolongation. QT/QTcF ≥500 ms was more common in patients from Mongolia and in those with a higher baseline QTcF, which may have implications for implementation of treatment.

An assessment of introducers used for airway management

Different introducers are available to assist with tracheal intubation. Subtle differences in the design of introducers can have a marked effect on safety and performance. The Difficult Airway Society's Airway Device Evaluation Project Team proposal states that devices should only be purchased for which there is at least a case-control study on patients assessing airway devices. However, resources are not currently available to carry out a case-control study on all introducers available on the market. This study comprised a laboratory and manikin-based investigation to identify introducers that could be suitable for clinical investigation. We included six different introducers in laboratory-based assessments (design characteristics) and manikin-based assessments involving the participation of 30 anaesthetists. Each anaesthetist attempted placement in the manikin's trachea with each of the six introducers in a random order. Outcomes included first-time insertion success rate; insertion success rate; number of attempts; time to placement; and distance placed. Each anaesthetist also completed a questionnaire. First-time insertion success rate depended significantly on the introducer used (p = 0.0016) and varied from 47% (Armstrong and P3) to 77% (Intersurgical and Frova). Median time to placement (including oesophageal placement) varied from 10 s (Eschmann and Frova) to 20 s (P3) (p = 0.0025). Median time to successful placement in the trachea varied from 9 s (Frova) to 22 s (Armstrong) (p = 0.037). We found that the Armstrong and P3 devices were not as acceptable as other introducers and, without significant improvements to their design and characteristics, the use of these devices in studies on patients is questionable. The study protocol is suitable for differentiating between different introducers and could be used as a basis for assessing other types of devices.

A Meta-Analytical Assessment of the Aggregation Parameter of the Binary Power Law for Characterizing Spatial Heterogeneity of Plant Disease Incidence

The binary power law (BPL) is often used to characterize spatial heterogeneity of disease incidence. A hierarchical mixed model, coupled with multiple imputation to randomly generate any missing standard errors, was used to conduct a meta-analysis of >200 published values of the estimated aggregation (b) parameter of the BPL. Approximately 50% of estimated b values ranged from 1.1 to 1.3. Moderator variable analysis showed that the number of individuals per sampling unit (n) had a strong positive effect on b, with a linear relation between estimated b and ln(n). Estimated expected value of b for the population of published regressions at a reference n of 15 was 1.22. The increase in the variance due to the imputations was only 0.03, and the efficiency exceeded 0.98. Results were confirmed with an alternative mixed model that considered a range of possible within-trial correlations of the estimated b values and with a random-coefficient mixed model fitted to the subset of the data. Cropping system, dispersal mode, and pathogen type all had significant effects on b, with annuals having larger expected value than woody perennials, soilborne and rain-splashed dispersed pathogens having the largest expected values for dispersal mode, and bacteria and oomycetes having the largest expected values for pathogen type. However, there was considerable variation within each of the levels of the moderators, and the differences of expected values from smallest to largest were small, ≤0.16. Results are discussed in relation to previously published findings from stochastic simulations.

A Comparison of the Performance of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Assays in Healthcare Workers with COVID-19

Aims Since its emergence, significant interest surrounds the use of SARS-CoV-2 serological tests as an alternative or as an adjunct to molecular testing. However, given the speed of this pandemic, paralleled with the pressure to develop and provide serological tests in an expediated manner, not every assay has undergone the rigorous evaluation that is usually associated with medical diagnostic assays. We aimed to examine the performance of several commercially available SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody assays among participants with confirmed COVID-19 disease and negative controls. Methods Serum taken between day 17 and day 40 post onset of symptoms from 41 healthcare workers with RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 disease, and pre-pandemic serum from 20 negative controls, were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG using 7 different assays including point-of-care (POC) and laboratory-based assays. Results Assay performance varied. The lab-based Abbott diagnostics SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay proved to be the assay with the best positive and negative predictive value, and overall accuracy. The POC Nal von Minden GmbH and Biozek assays also performed well. Conclusion Our research demonstrates the variations in performance of several commercially available SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays. These findings identify the limitations of some serological tests for SARS-CoV-2. This information will help inform test selection and may have particular relevance to providers operating beyond accredited laboratories.

The epidemiology and management of clusters of invasive meningococcal disease in England, 2010-15

BACKGROUND

Guidance for public health management of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in in England recommends the use of antibiotic chemoprophylaxis and vaccination. We summarized clinical and epidemiological data collected during routine management of IMD clusters in England.

METHODS

Data on epidemiology and operational decisions for public health management were reviewed for clusters between April 2010 and December 2015.

RESULTS

Clusters were generally 2-3 cases (53/58; 91%) within a single age band <18-years. Nurseries (n = 20, 34%), households/social networks (n = 14, 24%) and schools (n = 10, 17%) were the commonest settings. Chemoprophylaxis alone was used in 36 (58%) clusters, including most serogroup B clusters (31/41; 76%). Chemoprophylaxis and vaccination was used in a further 20 (32%) clusters. Vaccine was delivered promptly (<7 days). Four clusters had cases with onset post-chemoprophylaxis; no clusters recorded cases with onset post-vaccination. No pattern was observed between interventions and setting/population at risk, and interventions were consistent with national guidance. Challenges to management included logistical issues related to intervention delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health management of IMD clusters presents challenges in decision-making and implementation of interventions. Nonetheless, few cases were observed following intervention. Responses were consistent with national guidance. A systematic data collection tool should be developed to support future evaluation.

287 COVID-19 and Surgical Specialties – Lessons Learnt: A Rural DGH Perspective

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen the restructuring of surgical services worldwide. We aimed to evaluate pre-operative planning and post-operative outcomes in expedited colorectal surgery (ECRS), emergency general surgery (EGS), and emergency orthopaedic surgery (EOS) during the COVID-19 era at our rural hospital.

Method

This was a prospective observational cohort study. Electronic hospital systems identified adult patients who underwent ECRS, major EGS or EOS at our site, from the start of the UK lockdown.

Results

Following exclusion criteria, 98 patients were included in data analysis. Post-operative respiratory complications were seen in 27.8% of ECRS patients, 13.3% of EGS patients and 4% of EOS patients. 2 patients were diagnosed with COVID-19, with 1 COVID-19 associated mortality. Length of hospital stay was reduced for EOS in the COVID-19 setting and this was found to be statistically significant (p value &lt;0.001).

Conclusions

When compared to the literature, COVID-19 related complications in surgical patients were found to be lower at our rural hospital. This could be due to regional variation in the prevalence of COVID-19. If there were to be a second surge, we suggest NHS Trusts should be given the autonomy to make local decisions on modifying their elective caseload, rather than following a national ‘one-size-fits-all’ guideline.

Development and internal validation of clinical prediction models for outcomes of complicated intra-abdominal infection

BACKGROUND

Complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients with cIAI in a multicentre study and to develop clinical prediction models (CPMs) to help identify patients at risk of mortality or relapse.

METHODS

A multicentre observational study was conducted from August 2016 to February 2017 in the UK. Adult patients diagnosed with cIAI were included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop CPMs for mortality and cIAI relapse. The c-statistic was used to test model discrimination. Model calibration was tested using calibration slopes and calibration in the large (CITL). The CPMs were then presented as point scoring systems and validated further.

RESULTS

Overall, 417 patients from 31 surgical centres were included in the analysis. At 90 days after diagnosis, 17.3 per cent had a cIAI relapse and the mortality rate was 11.3 per cent. Predictors in the mortality model were age, cIAI aetiology, presence of a perforated viscus and source control procedure. Predictors of cIAI relapse included the presence of collections, outcome of initial management, and duration of antibiotic treatment. The c-statistic adjusted for model optimism was 0.79 (95 per cent c.i. 0.75 to 0.87) and 0.74 (0.73 to 0.85) for mortality and cIAI relapse CPMs. Adjusted calibration slopes were 0.88 (95 per cent c.i. 0.76 to 0.90) for the mortality model and 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) for the relapse model; CITL was -0.19 (95 per cent c.i. -0.39 to -0.12) and - 0.01 (- 0.17 to -0.03) respectively.

CONCLUSION

Relapse of infection and death after complicated intra-abdominal infections are common. Clinical prediction models were developed to identify patients at increased risk of relapse or death after treatment, these now require external validation.

Applications of Information Theory to Epidemiology

This Special Issue of Entropy represents the first wide-ranging overview of epidemiological applications since the 2012 publication of Applications of Information Theory to Epidemiology [...]

Mutual Information as a Performance Measure for Binary Predictors Characterized by Both ROC Curve and PROC Curve Analysis

The predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve differs from the more well-known receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in that it provides a basis for the evaluation of binary diagnostic tests using metrics defined conditionally on the outcome of the test rather than metrics defined conditionally on the actual disease status. Application of PROC curve analysis may be hindered by the complex graphical patterns that are sometimes generated. Here we present an information theoretic analysis that allows concurrent evaluation of PROC curves and ROC curves together in a simple graphical format. The analysis is based on the observation that mutual information may be viewed both as a function of ROC curve summary statistics (sensitivity and specificity) and prevalence, and as a function of predictive values and prevalence. Mutual information calculated from a 2 × 2 prediction-realization table for a specified risk score threshold on an ROC curve is the same as the mutual information calculated at the same risk score threshold on a corresponding PROC curve. Thus, for a given value of prevalence, the risk score threshold that maximizes mutual information is the same on both the ROC curve and the corresponding PROC curve. Phytopathologists and clinicians who have previously relied solely on ROC curve summary statistics when formulating risk thresholds for application in practical agricultural or clinical decision-making contexts are thus presented with a methodology that brings predictive values within the scope of that formulation.

Abstract 6168: Characterization of ATM inhibitor (AZD1390) distribution and pharmacodynamic changes in brain and glioblastoma in preclinical models to inform on mechanism of action

Ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) kinase is a key factor in DNA double strand break response and is constitutively activated in glioblastoma, leading to marked radioresistance [Bartkova, Carruthers] and therefore an attractive radiosensitisation target in this disease. AZD1390, a potent ATM inhibitor optimized to cross the blood brain barrier, is being evaluated with radiotherapy in Phase 1 (NCT03423628). Positron emission tomography (PET) studies demonstrated AZD1390 brain exposure in healthy human subjects. This study characterises ATM inhibitor penetration and distribution in brain and GBM, as well as pharmacodynamic biomarker changes in human orthotopic GBM patient-derived explant (PDX) models. Radiation +/- AZD1390 treatment was evaluated for compound concentration in plasma and relative abundance in brain/ GBM regions by mass spectrometry imaging (MSI). Parallel samples were analysed by immunohistochemistry for biomarkers of DNA damage response and ATM signalling. We show AZD1390 penetrates brain tissue with preferential compound accumulation into tumour. Higher ratios of AZD1390 in GBM versus normal brain correlate with improved efficacy and greater levels of DNA damage. Moreover, AZD1390 in the GBM region was heterogeneously distributed with MSI characterized specific metabolic clusters having varied AZD1390 intensities. As expected, radiation treatment activated ATM signalling (indicated by increase in pRAD50 and γH2AX positive cells) which was effectively inhibited by AZD1390 co-treatment. Our work provides novel insights into ATM inhibitor pharmacokinetics in brain tumours and demonstrates the benefit of using MSI in conjunction with pharmacodynamic markers to provide a more complete picture of AZD1390 mechanism of action for future translational studies on clinical GBM samples.

Citation Format: Lenka Oplustil O'Connor, Gregory Hamm, Maria Udriste, Stephanie Ling, Joanne Wilson, Steve Durant, Gareth Hughes, Sabina Cosulich, Wenlin Shao, Martin Pass, Gemma Jones, Andrew Pierce, Richard Goodwin, Mark O'Connor, Carl Barrett, Elizabeth Harrington. Characterization of ATM inhibitor (AZD1390) distribution and pharmacodynamic changes in brain and glioblastoma in preclinical models to inform on mechanism of action [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research 2020; 2020 Apr 27-28 and Jun 22-24. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(16 Suppl):Abstract nr 6168.

An outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 linked to a mud-based obstacle course, England, August 2018

In August 2018, Public Health England (PHE) was made aware of five probable cases of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 among individuals reporting participation in a mud-based obstacle race. An additional four cases, identified via routine whole-genome sequencing, were subsequently linked to the same event. Two of the nine cases were due to secondary household transmission. Despite an agreement between the event organizers and the local authority, to ensure that all livestock were removed from the site 28 days before the event, sheep were observed grazing on some of the routes taken by the runners 2 days prior to the race taking place. A retrospective review of incidents reported to PHE between 2015 and 2018 identified 41 cases of gastroenteritis associated with muddy assault course events. Of these, 25 cases were due to infection with STEC O157:H7, of which all but one were associated with outbreaks. Due to the environment in which such events take place, it is impossible to entirely remove the risk of exposure to potentially pathogenic zoonoses. However, race organizers should ensure that livestock are removed from the course 28 days before the event. They should also ensure that participants are made aware of the risk of contracting gastrointestinal disease from the environment, and to stress the importance of hand hygiene post-event and the risk of secondary transmission, particularly to children who are at risk of developing haemolytic uraemic syndrome.

On the Binormal Predictive Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for the Joint Assessment of Positive and Negative Predictive Values

The predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve is a diagrammatic format with application in the statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts. The PROC curve differs from the more well-known receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in that it provides a basis for evaluation using metrics defined conditionally on the outcome of the forecast rather than metrics defined conditionally on the actual disease status. Starting from the binormal ROC curve formulation, an overview of some previously published binormal PROC curves is presented in order to place the PROC curve in the context of other methods used in statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts based on the analysis of predictive values; in particular, the index of separation (PSEP) and the leaf plot. An information theoretic perspective on evaluation is also outlined. Five straightforward recommendations are made with a view to aiding understanding and interpretation of the sometimes-complex patterns generated by PROC curve analysis. The PROC curve and related analyses augment the perspective provided by traditional ROC curve analysis. Here, the binormal ROC model provides the exemplar for investigation of the PROC curve, but potential application extends to analysis based on other distributional models as well as to empirical analysis.

Case Report: Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Eosinophilic Meningitis due to Disseminated Fascioliasis

Human infection with the trematode Fasciola occurs with a worldwide prevalence of up to 17 million. Sheep and cattle are the normal host. Infection typically results in hepatobiliary disease, but extrahepatic manifestations are occasionally reported. Here, we present the case of a previously healthy 31-year-old Kurdish woman, admitted to hospital with a subarachnoid hemorrhage, eosinophilic meningitis, and lung and liver disease. A diagnosis of Fasciola infection was made based on strongly positive serology in blood and cerebrospinal fluid. The patient improved following treatment with triclabendazole and prednisolone.

Mental health care in London

Aim

To describe principles and characteristics of mental health care in London.

Method

Based on existing data, service provision, number of professionals working in services, funding arrangements, pathways intocare, user/carer involvement and specific issues are reported.

Results

London experiences high levels of need and use of mental health services compared to England as a whole. Inpatient andcompulsory admissions are considerably higher than the national average. Despite having more psychiatric beds and mental health staff, London has higher bed occupancy rates and staffing shortages. At the same time there is a trend away from institutionalised care to care in the community.

Conclusion

Mental health services in the UK are undergoing considerable reform. These changes will not remove the greater need formental health services in the capital, but national policy and funding lends support to cross-agency and pan-London work to tackle some of the problems characteristic of mental health in London. Whilst various issues of mental health care in London overlap with those in other European capitals, there also are some specific problems and features.

Testing for hybridisation of the Critically Endangered Iguana delicatissima on Anguilla to inform conservation efforts

The Caribbean Island of Anguilla in the north-eastern Lesser Antilles is home to one of the last populations of the Critically Endangered Lesser Antillean iguana Iguana delicatissima. This population is highly threatened primarily because of hybridisation with non-native Iguana iguana. This study assesses the degree of hybridisation between Anguilla’s Iguana species firstly using morphological characteristics and then genetic analysis to validate the genetic integrity of morphologically identified I. delicatissima. We also examined the genetic diversity of Anguilla’s I. delicatissima population, and that of a population on the nearby island of Îlet Fourchue, St Barthélemy. Forty-five iguanas were captured in Anguilla and 10 in St Barthélemy, and sequences from 3 nuclear and 1 mtDNA genes were obtained for each. Of the 45 iguanas captured in Anguilla, 22 were morphologically identified as I. delicatissima, 12 as I. iguana and the remainder were identified as hybrids. Morphological assignments were all confirmed by genetic analyses except for one I. iguana and one hybrid individual. These two individuals appeared likely to have originated following ancestral hybridisation events several generations ago. A significant paucity of genetic diversity was found within Anguillan and St Barthélemy I. delicatissima populations, with a single haplotype being identified for each of the three nuclear genes and the mtDNA sequence. This study highlights the urgency for immediate action to conserve Anguilla’s remnant I. delicatissima population. Protection from hybridisation will require translocation to I. iguana-free offshore cays, with supplementary individuals being sourced from neighbouring islands to enhance the genetic diversity of the population.

Encephalitis secondary to nitrous oxide and vitamin B12 deficiency

A 27-year-old woman presented with confusion, agitation and fever. Having initially been treated as an infective encephalitis case her initial and subsequent lumbar punctures revealed cerebrospinal fluid with a worsening pleocytosis and elevated protein. It was initially felt she had been suffering from tuberculous meningitis and started on treatment it later became apparent that she had a severe vitamin B₁₂ deficiency related to recreational nitrous oxide use. She also was noted to have a peripheral neuropathy. After replacing her vitamin B₁₂ and later stopping her tuberculous medication once cultures were negative her cognition and peripheral neuropathy continued to improve.

Pharmacology of the ATM Inhibitor AZD0156: Potentiation of Irradiation and Olaparib Responses Preclinically

AZD0156 is a potent and selective, bioavailable inhibitor of ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) protein, a signaling kinase involved in the DNA damage response. We present preclinical data demonstrating abrogation of irradiation-induced ATM signaling by low doses of AZD0156, as measured by phosphorylation of ATM substrates. AZD0156 is a strong radiosensitizer in vitro, and using a lung xenograft model, we show that systemic delivery of AZD0156 enhances the tumor growth inhibitory effects of radiation treatment in vivo Because ATM deficiency contributes to PARP inhibitor sensitivity, preclinically, we evaluated the effect of combining AZD0156 with the PARP inhibitor olaparib. Using ATM isogenic FaDu cells, we demonstrate that AZD0156 impedes the repair of olaparib-induced DNA damage, resulting in elevated DNA double-strand break signaling, cell-cycle arrest, and apoptosis. Preclinically, AZD0156 potentiated the effects of olaparib across a panel of lung, gastric, and breast cancer cell lines in vitro, and improved the efficacy of olaparib in two patient-derived triple-negative breast cancer xenograft models. AZD0156 is currently being evaluated in phase I studies (NCT02588105).

Transbronchial Lung Cryobiopsy in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A State of the Art Review

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive lung disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The diagnosis of IPF involves a combination of clinical history, radiological imaging and examination of histopathological samples in appropriate cases. Historically, transbronchial biopsy (TBB) has been used to obtain histological samples; however this lacks diagnostic accuracy. At present, surgical lung biopsy (SLB) is the gold standard technique for obtaining specimen samples; however this carries a significant mortality risk. Transbronchial lung cryobiopsy (TBLC) is a new technique that has been pioneered in the management of lung malignancy and offers a potential alternative to SLB. The technique employs a freezing probe, which is used to obtain lung tissue samples that are larger and better quality than traditional TBB samples. This affords TBLC an estimated diagnostic yield of 80% in interstitial lung disease. However, with limited evidence directly comparing TBLC to SLB, the diagnostic accuracy of the procedure has been uncertain. Common complications of TBLC include pneumothorax and bleeding. Mortality in TBLC is low compared with SLB, with exacerbation of IPF frequently reported as the cause. TBLC represents an exciting potential option in the diagnostic pathway in IPF; however its true value has yet to be determined.

Overall Survival with Ribociclib plus Endocrine Therapy in Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

An earlier analysis of this phase 3 trial showed that the addition of a cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibitor to endocrine therapy provided a greater benefit with regard to progression-free survival than endocrine therapy alone in premenopausal or perimenopausal patients with advanced hormone-receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer. Here we report the results of a protocol-specified interim analysis of the key secondary end point of overall survival.

METHODS

We randomly assigned patients to receive either ribociclib or placebo in addition to endocrine therapy (goserelin and either a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor or tamoxifen). Overall survival was evaluated with the use of a stratified log-rank test and summarized with the use of Kaplan-Meier methods.

RESULTS

A total of 672 patients were included in the intention-to-treat population. There were 83 deaths among 335 patients (24.8%) in the ribociclib group and 109 deaths among 337 patients (32.3%) in the placebo group. The addition of ribociclib to endocrine therapy resulted in significantly longer overall survival than endocrine therapy alone. The estimated overall survival at 42 months was 70.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 63.5 to 76.0) in the ribociclib group and 46.0% (95% CI, 32.0 to 58.9) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for death, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.95; P = 0.00973 by log-rank test). The survival benefit seen in the subgroup of 495 patients who received an aromatase inhibitor was consistent with that in the overall intention-to-treat population (hazard ratio for death, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.98). The percentage of patients who received subsequent antineoplastic therapy was balanced between the groups (68.9% in the ribociclib group and 73.2% in the placebo group). The time from randomization to disease progression during receipt of second-line therapy or to death was also longer in the ribociclib group than in the placebo group (hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

This trial showed significantly longer overall survival with a CDK4/6 inhibitor plus endocrine therapy than with endocrine therapy alone among patients with advanced hormone-receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. No new concerns regarding toxic effects emerged with longer follow-up. (Funded by Novartis; MONALEESA-7 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02278120.).

Phase III MONALEESA-7 trial of premenopausal patients with HR+/HER2− advanced breast cancer (ABC) treated with endocrine therapy ± ribociclib: Overall survival (OS) results

LBA1008

Background: The phase III MONALEESA-7 study (NCT02278120) is the first dedicated trial of endocrine therapy (ET) ± a cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 (CDK4/6) inhibitor in premenopausal patients (pts) with hormone receptor–positive (HR+)/HER2− ABC. The study met its primary endpoint of significantly longer progression-free survival (PFS) with ribociclib (RIB; a CDK4/6 inhibitor) + ET vs placebo (PBO) + ET (median, 23.8 vs 13.0 mo; HR, 0.55; P < 0.0001; Tripathy D, et al. Lancet Oncol. 2018). Methods: Premenopausal pts (N=672) with HR+/HER2− ABC were treated with RIB or PBO + goserelin and either a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor (NSAI; letrozole or anastrozole) or tamoxifen. This is the 2nd of 3 protocol-specified OS analyses (scheduled to occur after ≈ 189 deaths [75% of the planned total events]). OS was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier methods, and statistical comparison was made by 1-sided stratified log-rank test, with a protocol-defined Lan-DeMets (O’Brien-Fleming) stopping boundary of p < 0.01018 for superior efficacy. Results: The data cutoff for this prespecified interim analysis was Nov 30, 2018, and the median follow-up was 34.6 mo (min, 28.0 mo). At cutoff, 173 pts were continuing study treatment (RIB, n=116; PBO, n=57), and OS was evaluated after 192 deaths (RIB, n=83; PBO, n=109). RIB + ET demonstrated a significantly longer OS than PBO + ET (median, not reached vs 40.9 mo [95% CI, 37.80 mo-not evaluable]; HR, 0.712 [95% CI, 0.54-0.95]; p = 0.00973). The result crossed the prespecified stopping boundary for superior efficacy. Estimated OS rates with RIB + ET vs PBO + ET at 42 mo were 70.2% vs 46.0%, respectively. In pts who received an NSAI (n=495), RIB + ET demonstrated a consistent OS improvement vs PBO + ET (HR, 0.699 [95% CI, 0.50-0.98]). Posttreatment therapy use was balanced between treatment arms (RIB, 68.9%; PBO, 73.2%). Conclusions: RIB + ET demonstrated a clinically and statistically significant longer OS than ET alone in premenopausal pts with HR+/HER2− ABC. This is the first time that a CDK4/6 inhibitor or any targeted agent + ET has demonstrated significantly longer OS vs ET alone as initial endocrine-based therapy. Clinical trial information: NCT02278120.

Association between knowledge, risk behaviours, and testing for sexually transmitted infections among men who have sex with men: findings from a large online survey in the United Kingdom

Objectives

In the UK, men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a disproportionate sexually transmitted infection (STI) burden. We investigated MSM's STI knowledge; whether their STI testing behaviour met national guidelines (annually if sexually active; 3‐monthly if engaging in STI risk behaviours); and the relationship between STI testing in the last 3 months, STI knowledge and STI risk behaviours by HIV status.

Methods

Sexually active (in the last year) men aged > 15 years who were UK residents and were recruited from gay‐orientated online dating platforms completed an anonymous online survey about STI knowledge, STI risk behaviours, and STI testing (March–May 2017). This included 11 true statements about STIs. Respondents scored 1 for each statement they ‘knew’, with those scoring < 6 overall treated as having ‘poor’ STI knowledge. Descriptive and multivariable analyses were conducted, separately by HIV status, to test our hypothesis and calculate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Compared to HIV‐positive men (n = 489), the proportion of HIV‐negative/unknown‐status men (n = 3157) with ‘poor’ STI knowledge was significantly higher (46.4% versus 22.9% for HIV‐positive men) and the proportion with STI testing in the last 12 months was lower (71.6% versus 87.2%, respectively). In the last 3 months, 56.9% of HIV‐negative/unknown‐status and 74.1% of HIV‐positive men reported STI risk behaviours, of whom 45.8% and 55.1%, respectively, had been tested for STIs during this time. Among HIV‐negative/unknown‐status men, those reporting STI risk behaviours were more likely (AOR 1.52; 95% CI 1.26–1.84) and those with poor STI knowledge less likely (AOR 0.73; 95% CI 0.61–0.89) to have been tested during the last 3 months. However, neither factor was independently associated with 3‐monthly testing among HIV‐positive men.

Conclusions

Improving STI knowledge, especially among HIV‐negative/unknown‐status men, and promoting frequent STI testing among men engaging in STI risk behaviours are vital to address the poor sexual health of MSM.

NATALEE: Phase III study of ribociclib (RIBO) + endocrine therapy (ET) as adjuvant treatment in hormone receptor–positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative (HER2–) early breast cancer (EBC)

TPS597

Background: RIBO is a selective inhibitor of CDK4/6 with demonstrated efficacy and is well tolerated when combined with ET in pre-/peri- and postmenopausal women with HR+, HER2– advanced breast cancer. Given these findings and considering the role of CDK4/6–Rb–E2F pathway dysregulation in ET resistance, there is a rationale for evaluating whether RIBO + ET prevents, or delays acquired resistance to ET in the adjuvant setting, to improve invasive disease-free survival (iDFS). Methods: The phase 3 multicenter, randomized, open-label NATALEE trial will evaluate the efficacy and safety of RIBO + ET as adjuvant treatment in patients with HR+, HER2– EBC. Eligible women (any menopausal status) and men aged ≥ 18 years will be randomized to RIBO 400 mg/day (3 weeks on/1 week off) + ET or ET alone. In both arms, ET will comprise daily continuous letrozole 2.5 mg/day or anastrozole 1 mg/day; men and premenopausal women will also receive goserelin 3.6 mg once every 28 days. Treatment with RIBO will last 36 months whereas treatment with ET (in both arms) will last 60 months. Patients must have had American Joint Committee on Cancer (8th ed.) Anatomic Stage II (either N0 with grade 2-3 and/or Ki67 ≥ 20% or N1) or III EBC, with an initial diagnosis ≤ 18 months prior to randomization, and completed chemotherapy and radiotherapy (if indicated). Patients receiving standard (neo)adjuvant ET are eligible only if this treatment was initiated within 12 months of randomization. Key exclusion criteria include previous CDK4/6 inhibitor treatment and clinically significant, uncontrolled heart disease and/or cardiac repolarization abnormality. The primary endpoint is iDFS using STEEP (Standardized Definitions for Efficacy End Points) criteria as assessed by the investigator; secondary endpoints include recurrence-free survival, distant DFS, overall survival, patient-reported outcomes, and RIBO pharmacokinetics. Safety and tolerability will also be evaluated. Estimated enrollment is 4000 patients from 425 sites in 21 countries. Recruitment is ongoing. Clinical trial information: NCT03701334.

MEK1/2 inhibitor withdrawal reverses acquired resistance driven by BRAFV600E amplification whereas KRASG13D amplification promotes EMT-chemoresistance

Acquired resistance to MEK1/2 inhibitors (MEKi) arises through amplification of BRAFV600E or KRASG13D to reinstate ERK1/2 signalling. Here we show that BRAFV600E amplification and MEKi resistance are reversible following drug withdrawal. Cells with BRAFV600E amplification are addicted to MEKi to maintain a precise level of ERK1/2 signalling that is optimal for cell proliferation and survival, and tumour growth in vivo. Robust ERK1/2 activation following MEKi withdrawal drives a p57KIP2-dependent G1 cell cycle arrest and senescence or expression of NOXA and cell death, selecting against those cells with amplified BRAFV600E. p57KIP2 expression is required for loss of BRAFV600E amplification and reversal of MEKi resistance. Thus, BRAFV600E amplification confers a selective disadvantage during drug withdrawal, validating intermittent dosing to forestall resistance. In contrast, resistance driven by KRASG13D amplification is not reversible; rather ERK1/2 hyperactivation drives ZEB1-dependent epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition and chemoresistance, arguing strongly against the use of drug holidays in cases of KRASG13D amplification.

Summary Measures of Predictive Power Associated with Logistic Regression Models of Disease Risk

For an ordinary least-squares regression model, the coefficient of determination (R²) describes the proportion (or percentage) of variance of the response variable explained by the model, and is a widely accepted summary measure of predictive power. A number of R²-analogues are available as summary measures of predictive power associated with logistic regression models, including models of disease risk. Tjur's R² and McFadden's R² are of particular interest in this context. Both of these metrics have transparent derivations, which reveal that they apply to different aspects of model evaluation. Tjur's R² is a measure of separation between (known) actual states (e.g., gold standard determinations of "healthy" or "diseased" status) whereas McFadden's R² is a measure of separation between predicted states (e.g., forecasts of disease status based on models of disease risk). This clarifies their interpretation in the context of evaluation of logistic regression models of disease risk. In addition, versions of both Tjur's R² and McFadden's R² may be obtained from analyses of disease risk that are not preceded by logistic regression analysis. Tjur's R² and McFadden's R² are shown to be useful, distinct summary measures of predictive power for epidemiological models of disease risk.

Erratum to: Measurement of the W boson polarisation in t t ¯ events from pp collisions at s = 8 TeV in the lepton + jets channel with ATLAS

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1140/epjc/s10052-017-4819-4.].

Search for electroweak production of supersymmetric particles in final states with two or three leptons at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the electroweak production of charginos, neutralinos and sleptons decaying into final states involving two or three electrons or muons is presented. The analysis is based on 36.1 fb- 1 ofs = 13  TeV proton-proton collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Several scenarios based on simplified models are considered. These include the associated production of the next-to-lightest neutralino and the lightest chargino, followed by their decays into final states with leptons and the lightest neutralino via either sleptons or Standard Model gauge bosons; direct production of chargino pairs, which in turn decay into leptons and the lightest neutralino via intermediate sleptons; and slepton pair production, where each slepton decays directly into the lightest neutralino and a lepton. No significant deviations from the Standard Model expectation are observed and stringent limits at 95% confidence level are placed on the masses of relevant supersymmetric particles in each of these scenarios. For a massless lightest neutralino, masses up to 580 GeV are excluded for the associated production of the next-to-lightest neutralino and the lightest chargino, assuming gauge-boson mediated decays, whereas for slepton-pair production masses up to 500 GeV are excluded assuming three generations of mass-degenerate sleptons.

Performance of missing transverse momentum reconstruction with the ATLAS detector using proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

The performance of the missing transverse momentum ( E T miss ) reconstruction with the ATLAS detector is evaluated using data collected in proton-proton collisions at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. To reconstruct E T miss , fully calibrated electrons, muons, photons, hadronically decaying τ -leptons , and jets reconstructed from calorimeter energy deposits and charged-particle tracks are used. These are combined with the soft hadronic activity measured by reconstructed charged-particle tracks not associated with the hard objects. Possible double counting of contributions from reconstructed charged-particle tracks from the inner detector, energy deposits in the calorimeter, and reconstructed muons from the muon spectrometer is avoided by applying a signal ambiguity resolution procedure which rejects already used signals when combining the various E T miss contributions. The individual terms as well as the overall reconstructed E T miss are evaluated with various performance metrics for scale (linearity), resolution, and sensitivity to the data-taking conditions. The method developed to determine the systematic uncertainties of the E T miss scale and resolution is discussed. Results are shown based on the full 2015 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb - 1 .