The Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) Project: Initial Results and Evaluation of Methodology

Trends in Mortality in People With HIV From 1999 through 2020: A Multicohort Collaboration

BACKGROUND

Mortality among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) declined with the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy. We investigated trends in mortality in people with HIV from 1999 through 2020.

METHODS

Data were collected from the Data Collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) cohort between January 1999 through January 2015 and the International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Disease (RESPOND) from October 2017 through December 2020. Age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates, classified using Coding Causes of Death in HIV, were calculated. Poisson models were used to assess mortality over time.

RESULTS

Among 55 716 participants followed for median 6 years (interquartile range, 3-11), 5263 died (mortality rate [MR], 13.7/1000 person-years of follow-up [PYFU]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 13.4-14.1). Changing mortality was observed: AIDS mortality was most common between 1999-2009 (n = 952; MR, 4.2/1000 PYFU; 95% CI, 4.0-4.5) and non-AIDS-defining malignancy (NADM) between 2010-2020 (n = 444; MR, 2.8/1000 PYFU; 95% CI, 2.5-3.1). In multivariable analysis, all-cause mortality declined (adjusted mortality rate ratio [aMRR], 0.97 per year; 95% CI, .96-.98), mostly 1999-2010 (aMRR, 0.96 per year; 95% CI, .95-.97) but was stable 2011-2020 (aMRR, 1.00 per year; 95% CI, .96-1.05). Mortality due to all known causes except NADM also declined.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among people with HIV in the D:A:D and/or RESPOND cohorts declined between 1999-2009 and was stable over the period 2010-2020. This decline in mortality was not fully explained by improvements in immunologic-virologic status or other risk factors.

Excess mortality attributable to AIDS among people living with HIV in high-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Identifying strategies to further reduce AIDS-related mortality requires accurate estimates of the extent to which mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) is due to AIDS-related or non-AIDS-related causes. Existing approaches to estimating AIDS-related mortality have quantified AIDS-related mortality as total mortality among PLHIV in excess of age- and sex-matched mortality in populations without HIV. However, recent evidence suggests that, with high antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, a growing proportion of excess mortality among PLHIV is non-AIDS-related.

METHODS

We searched Embase on 22/09/2023 for English language studies that contained data on AIDS-related mortality rates among adult PLHIV and age-matched comparator all-cause mortality rates among people without HIV. We extracted data on the number and rates of all-cause and AIDS-related deaths, demographics, ART use and AIDS-related mortality definitions. We calculated the proportion of excess mortality among PLHIV that is AIDS-related. The proportion of excess mortality due to AIDS was pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Of 4485 studies identified by the initial search, eight were eligible, all from high-income settings: five from Europe, one from Canada, one from Japan and one from South Korea. No studies reported on mortality among only untreated PLHIV. One study included only PLHIV on ART. In all studies, most PLHIV were on ART by the end of follow-up. Overall, 1,331,742 person-years and 17,471 deaths were included from PLHIV, a mortality rate of 13.1 per 1000 person-years. Of these deaths, 7721 (44%) were AIDS-related, an overall AIDS-related mortality rate of 5.8 per 1000 person-years. The mean overall mortality rate among the general population was 2.8 (95% CI: 1.8-4.0) per 1000 person-years. The meta-analysed percentage of excess mortality that was AIDS-related was 53% (95% CI: 45-61%); 52% (43-60%) in Western and Central Europe and North America, and 71% (69-74%) in the Asia-Pacific region.

DISCUSSION

Although we searched all regions, we only found eligible studies from high-income countries, mostly European, so, the generalizability of these results to other regions and epidemic settings is unknown.

CONCLUSIONS

Around half of the excess mortality among PLHIV in high-income regions was non-AIDS-related. An emphasis on preventing and treating comorbidities linked to non-AIDS mortality among PLHIV is required.

All-cause and AIDS-related mortality among people with HIV across Europe from 2001 to 2020: impact of antiretroviral therapy, tuberculosis and regional differences in a multicentre cohort study

Background

All-cause and AIDS-mortality in Europe has been decreasing between 1996 and 2020. However, regional differences as well as their drivers remain unclear. This study investigates mortality differences and their drivers, including usage of and response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and active tuberculosis (TB), among people with HIV across Europe.

Methods

People with HIV enrolled in EuroSIDA were followed from 2001 through 2020. Immunologic-virologic status (IVS) was categorized as poor (CD4-cell count ≤350 cells/mm3 and viral load (VL) > 200 copies/ml), good (CD4 ≥ 500 and VL < 200), or intermediate (remaining combinations). Participants missing either CD4-cell count or VL were categorized as unknown. Regional differences in mortality were analyzed using multivariable Poisson regression with interaction analyses between regions of Europe and IVS, ART, or TB status.

Findings

20,364 people with HIV were included: 13,715/20,346 (67.3%) from Western, 3020/20,364 (14.8%) from Central Eastern, and 3629/20,364 (17.8%) from Eastern Europe. At enrolment, median age was 40 years (inter-quartile range (IQR): 33-48), median CD4-cell count 449 cells/mm3 (IQR: 291-638), and most were male 14,993/20,346 (73.3%). A total of 2639 died during 192,591 person-years of follow-up (crude mortality rate 13.7/1000 person-years, 95% CI: 13.2-14.2), 519/2639 (19.7%) from AIDS (2.7/1000 person-years, 2.5-2.9). All-cause and AIDS-mortality rates decreased over time but remained higher in Eastern Europe after adjusting for confounders. Being off ART (aIRR 2.42; 95% CI 2.14-2.74), poor IVS (aIRR 4.2; 95% CI 3.39-5.20) and prior TB (aIRR 3.33; 95% CI 2.75-4.03) were associated with higher all-cause mortality. For all-cause mortality the effect of ART (test for interaction: p < 0.001) and IVS (p = 0.02), but not TB (p = 0.5) varied across regions.

Interpretation

Overall mortality and AIDS-mortality rates decreased over time, but remained higher in Eastern Europe. A poor IVS, being off ART and prior active TB were related to higher mortality. Eastern Europe had the highest proportion of people with poor or unknown IVS, emphasizing the continued need to improve HIV care with a focus on early diagnosis, ART initiation, and adherence.

Funding

EuroSIDA has received funding from ViiV Healthcare LLC, Janssen Scientific Affairs, Janssen R&D, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp, Gilead Sciences and the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under EuroCoord grant agreement n˚ 260694. The study is also supported by a grant from the Danish National Research Foundation and by the International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Disease (RESPOND).

Care interruptions and mortality among adults in Europe and North America

OBJECTIVE

Interruptions in care of people with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are associated with adverse outcomes, but most studies have relied on composite outcomes. We investigated whether mortality risk following care interruptions differed from mortality risk after first starting ART.

DESIGN

Collaboration of 18 European and North American HIV observational cohort studies of adults with HIV starting ART between 2004 and 2019.

METHODS

Care interruptions were defined as gaps in contact of ≥365 days, with a subsequent return to care (distinct from loss to follow-up), or ≥270 days and ≥545 days in sensitivity analyses. Follow-up time was allocated to no/preinterruption or postinterruption follow-up groups. We used Cox regression to compare hazards of mortality between care interruption groups, adjusting for time-updated demographic and clinical characteristics and biomarkers upon ART initiation or re-initiation of care.

RESULTS

Of 89 197 PWH, 83.4% were male and median age at ART start was 39 years [interquartile range (IQR): 31-48)]. 8654 PWH (9.7%) had ≥1 care interruption; 10 913 episodes of follow-up following a care interruption were included. There were 6104 deaths in 536 334 person-years, a crude mortality rate of 11.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 11.1-11.7] per 1000 person-years. The adjusted mortality hazard ratio (HR) for the postinterruption group was 1.72 (95% CI: 1.57-1.88) compared with the no/preinterruption group. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses assuming ≥270-day (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.40-1.60) and ≥545-day (HR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.48-1.88) interruptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality was higher among PWH reinitiating care following an interruption, compared with when PWH initially start ART, indicating the importance of uninterrupted care.

Discrimination of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Cause-specific Mortality Among Persons With HIV in Europe and North America

Background

Predicting cause-specific mortality among people with HIV (PWH) could facilitate targeted care to improve survival. We assessed discrimination of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 in predicting cause-specific mortality among PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

Using Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration data for PWH who initiated ART between 2000 and 2018, VACS Index 2.0 scores (higher scores indicate worse prognosis) were calculated around a randomly selected visit date at least 1 year after ART initiation. Missingness in VACS Index 2.0 variables was addressed through multiple imputation. Cox models estimated associations between VACS Index 2.0 and causes of death, with discrimination evaluated using Harrell's C-statistic. Absolute mortality risk was modelled using flexible parametric survival models.

Results

Of 59 741 PWH (mean age: 43 years; 80% male), the mean VACS Index 2.0 at baseline was 41 (range: 0-129). For 2425 deaths over 168 162 person-years follow-up (median: 2.6 years/person), AIDS (n = 455) and non-AIDS-defining cancers (n = 452) were the most common causes. Predicted 5-year mortality for PWH with a mean VACS Index 2.0 score of 38 at baseline was 1% and approximately doubled for every 10-unit increase. The 5-year all-cause mortality C-statistic was .83. Discrimination with the VACS Index 2.0 was highest for deaths resulting from AIDS (0.91), liver-related (0.91), respiratory-related (0.89), non-AIDS infections (0.87), and non-AIDS-defining cancers (0.83), and lowest for suicides/accidental deaths (0.65).

Conclusions

For deaths among PWH, discrimination with the VACS Index 2.0 was highest for deaths with measurable physiological causes and was lowest for suicide/accidental deaths.

Frequent Disengagement and Subsequent Mortality Among People With HIV and Hepatitis C in Canada: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

The cascade of care, commonly used to assess HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) health service delivery, has limitations in capturing the complexity of individuals' engagement patterns. This study examines the dynamic nature of engagement and mortality trajectories among people with HIV and HCV.

Methods

We used data from the Canadian HIV-HCV Co-Infection Cohort, which prospectively follows 2098 participants from 18 centers biannually. Markov multistate models were used to evaluate sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with transitioning between the following states: (1) lost-to-follow-up (LTFU), defined as no visit for 18 months; (2) reengaged (reentry into cohort after being LTFU); (3) withdrawn from the study (ie, moved); (4) death; otherwise remained (5) engaged-in-care.

Results

A total of 1809 participants met the eligibility criteria and contributed 12 591 person-years from 2003 to 2022. LTFU was common, with 46% experiencing at least 1 episode, of whom only 57% reengaged. One in 5 (n = 383) participants died during the study. Participants who transitioned to LTFU were twice as likely to die as those who were consistently engaged. Factors associated with transitioning to LTFU included detectable HCV RNA (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR], 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.67), evidence of HCV treatment but no sustained virologic response result (aHR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.56-2.53), and recent incarceration (aHR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.58-2.40). Being Indigenous was a significant predictor of death across all engagement trajectories.

Interpretation

Disengagement from clinical care was common and resulted in higher death rates. People LTFU were more likely to require HCV treatment highlighting a priority population for elimination strategies.

The changing landscape of both causes and locations of death in a regional HIV population 2010-2021

BACKGROUND

Although HIV-related deaths among people with HIV have dramatically decreased, deaths from other medical conditions and non-medical events have increased. The location of death among people with HIV remains underreported.

OBJECTIVES

We reviewed the deaths, causes of death, and reported location of death (i.e. within or outside of medical settings) of all people with HIV with the Southern Alberta Cohort, Calgary, Canada, between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2022.

METHODS

This was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study reviewing all deaths within a comprehensive geographically defined HIV cohort over 11 years.

RESULTS

Deaths from HIV-related causes decreased from 52% of all deaths in 2010 to 14% in 2021. In 2021, non-HIV medical deaths increased from 38% to 44%, and non-medical deaths (e.g. violence, suicide, drug overdose) increased from 0.5% to 39%. Of non-medical deaths, 67% resulted from substance use/overdose. Overall, deaths in any medical setting decreased from 91% in 2010 to 39% in 2021; 61% of all deaths occurred in a medical setting (e.g. hospital/emergency department or supported/long-term/hospice care), 27% in a residence, and 9% in the community.

CONCLUSION

The shifting causes of death (i.e. fewer HIV-related deaths, more overdose deaths) and location of death (i.e. fewer in medical settings, more at home/in the community) requires close monitoring so future resources can be matched to predicted patient needs.

Survival and mortality profile among people living with HIV in a cohort in the Northeastern region of Brazil

Conditions related to the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) are still a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Longer survival in this population were reported to increase the risk of developing noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to estimate the survival and causes of death according to age group and sex among PLHIV monitored at two referral centers in the Northeastern Brazil. This is a prospective, retrospective cohort with death records from 2007 to 2018, based on a database that registers causes of death using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10), which were subsequently coded following the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe). A total of 2,359 PLHIV participated in the study, with 63.2% being men, with a follow-up period of 13.9 years. Annual mortality rate was 1.46 deaths per 100 PLHIV (95% CI: 1.33 - 1.60) with a frequency of 20.9%. Risk of death for men increased by 49% when compared to women, and the risk of death in PLHIV increased by 51% among those aged 50 years and over at the time of diagnosis. It was observed that 73.5% accounted for AIDS-related deaths, 6.9% for non-AIDS defining cancer, 6.3% for external causes, and 3.2% for cardiovascular diseases. Among the youngest, 97.2% presented an AIDS-related cause of death. Highest frequency of deaths from neoplasms was among women and from external causes among men. There is a need for health services to implement strategies ensuring greater adherence to treatment, especially among men and young people. Moreover, screening for chronic diseases and cancer is essential, including the establishment of easily accessible multidisciplinary care centers that can identify and address habits such as illicit drug use and alcoholism, which are associated with violent deaths.

Evolving AIDS- and non-AIDS Mortality and Predictors in the PISCIS Cohort of People Living With HIV in Catalonia and the Balearic Islands (Spain), 1998-2020

Background

Effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has substantially reduced acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths, shifting the focus to non-AIDS conditions in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH). We examined mortality trends and predictors of AIDS- and non-AIDS mortality in the Population HIV Cohort from Catalonia and Balearic Islands (PISCIS) cohort of PLWH from 1998 to 2020.

Methods

We used a modified Coding Causes of Death in HIV protocol, which has been widely adopted by various HIV cohorts to classify mortality causes. We applied standardized mortality rates (SMR) to compare with the general population and used competing risks models to determine AIDS-related and non-AIDS-related mortality predictors.

Results

Among 30 394 PLWH (81.5% male, median age at death 47.3), crude mortality was 14.2 per 1000 person-years. All-cause standardized mortality rates dropped from 9.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.45-10.90) in 1998 through 2003 to 3.33 (95% CI, 3.14-3.53) in 2015 through 2020, P for trend = .0001. Major causes were AIDS, non-AIDS cancers, cardiovascular disease, AIDS-defining cancers, viral hepatitis, and nonhepatitis liver disease. Predictors for AIDS-related mortality included being aged ≥40 years, not being a man who have sex with men, history of AIDS-defining illnesses, CD4 < 200 cells/µL, ≥2 comorbidities, and nonreceipt of ART. Non-AIDS mortality increased with age, injection drug use, heterosexual men, socioeconomic deprivation, CD4 200 to 349 cells/µL, nonreceipt of ART, and comorbidities, but migrants had lower risk (adjusted hazard risk, 0.69 [95% CI, .57-.83]).

Conclusions

Mortality rates among PLWH have significantly decreased over the past 2 decades, with a notable shift toward non-AIDS-related causes. Continuous monitoring and effective management of these non-AIDS conditions are essential to enhance overall health outcomes.

Longitudinal trends in causes of death among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America from 1996 to 2020: a collaboration of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Mortality rates among people with HIV have fallen since 1996 following the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). Patterns of cause-specific mortality are evolving as the population with HIV ages. We aimed to investigate longitudinal trends in cause-specific mortality among people with HIV starting ART in Europe and North America.

METHODS

In this collaborative observational cohort study, we used data from 17 European and North American HIV cohorts contributing data to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We included data for people with HIV who started ART between 1996 and 2020 at the age of 16 years or older. Causes of death were classified into a single cause by both a clinician and an algorithm if International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision or Tenth Revision data were available, or independently by two clinicians. Disagreements were resolved through panel discussion. We used Poisson models to compare cause-specific mortality rates during the calendar periods 1996-99, 2000-03, 2004-07, 2008-11, 2012-15, and 2016-20, adjusted for time-updated age, CD4 count, and whether the individual was ART-naive at the start of each period.

FINDINGS

Among 189 301 people with HIV included in this study, 16 832 (8·9%) deaths were recorded during 1 519 200 person-years of follow-up. 13 180 (78·3%) deaths were classified by cause: the most common causes were AIDS (4203 deaths; 25·0%), non-AIDS non-hepatitis malignancy (2311; 13·7%), and cardiovascular or heart-related (1403; 8·3%) mortality. The proportion of deaths due to AIDS declined from 49% during 1996-99 to 16% during 2016-20. Rates of all-cause mortality per 1000 person-years decreased from 16·8 deaths (95% CI 15·4-18·4) during 1996-99 to 7·9 deaths (7·6-8·2) during 2016-20. Rates of all-cause mortality declined with time: the average adjusted mortality rate ratio per calendar period was 0·85 (95% CI 0·84-0·86). Rates of cause-specific mortality also declined: the most pronounced reduction was for AIDS-related mortality (0·81; 0·79-0·83). There were also reductions in rates of cardiovascular-related (0·83, 0·79-0·87), liver-related (0·88, 0·84-0·93), non-AIDS infection-related (0·91, 0·86-0·96), non-AIDS-non-hepatocellular carcinoma malignancy-related (0·94, 0·90-0·97), and suicide or accident-related mortality (0·89, 0·82-0·95). Mortality rates among people who acquired HIV through injecting drug use increased in women (1·07, 1·00-1·14) and decreased slightly in men (0·96, 0·93-0·99).

INTERPRETATION

Reductions of most major causes of death, particularly AIDS-related deaths among people with HIV on ART, were not seen for all subgroups. Interventions targeted at high-risk groups, substance use, and comorbidities might further increase life expectancy in people with HIV towards that in the general population.

FUNDING

US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Estimation of Improvements in Mortality in Spectrum Among Adults With HIV Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries

INTRODUCTION

Mortality rates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries continue to decline. We compared mortality rates among PLHIV on ART in Europe for 2016-2020 with Spectrum's estimates.

METHODS

The AIDS Impact Module in Spectrum is a compartmental HIV epidemic model coupled with a demographic population projection model. We used national Spectrum projections developed for the 2022 HIV estimates round to calculate mortality rates among PLHIV on ART, adjusting to the age/country distribution of PLHIV starting ART from 1996 to 2020 in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC)'s European cohorts.

RESULTS

In the ART-CC, 11,504 of 162,835 PLHIV died. Between 1996-1999 and 2016-2020, AIDS-related mortality in the ART-CC decreased from 8.8 (95% CI: 7.6 to 10.1) to 1.0 (0.9-1.2) and from 5.9 (4.4-8.1) to 1.1 (0.9-1.4) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Non-AIDS-related mortality decreased from 9.1 (7.9-10.5) to 6.1 (5.8-6.5) and from 7.0 (5.2-9.3) to 4.8 (4.3-5.2) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Spectrum among men were near ART-CC estimates for 2016-2020 (Spectrum: 7.02-7.47 deaths per 1000 person-years) but approximately 20% lower in women (Spectrum: 4.66-4.70). Adjusted excess mortality rates in Spectrum were 2.5-fold higher in women and 3.1-3.4-fold higher in men in comparison to the ART-CC's AIDS-specific mortality rates.

DISCUSSION

Spectrum's all-cause mortality estimates among PLHIV are consistent with age/country-controlled mortality observed in ART-CC, with some underestimation of mortality among women. Comparing results suggest that 60%-70% of excess deaths among PLHIV on ART in Spectrum are from non-AIDS causes.

Long-term outcomes after tuberculosis for people with HIV in eastern Europe

BACKGROUND

Eastern Europe has a high burden of tuberculosis (TB)/HIV coinfection with high mortality shortly after TB diagnosis. This study assesses TB recurrence, mortality rates and causes of death among TB/HIV patients from Eastern Europe up to 11 years after TB diagnosis.

METHODS

A longitudinal cohort study of TB/HIV patients enrolled between 2011 and 2013 (at TB diagnosis) and followed-up until end of 2021. A competing risk regression was employed to assess rates of TB recurrence, with death as competing event. Kaplan-Meier estimates and a multivariable Cox-regression were used to assess long-term mortality and corresponding risk factors. The Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) methodology was used for adjudication of causes of death.

RESULTS

Three hundred and seventy-five TB/HIV patients were included. Fifty-three (14.1%) were later diagnosed with recurrent TB [incidence rate 3.1/100 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4-4.0] during a total follow-up time of 1713 PYFU. Twenty-three of 33 patients with data on drug-resistance (69.7%) had multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB. More than half with recurrent TB ( n  = 30/53, 56.6%) died. Overall, 215 (57.3%) died during the follow-up period, corresponding to a mortality rate of 11.4/100 PYFU (95% CI 10.0-13.1). Almost half of those (48.8%) died of TB. The proportion of all TB-related deaths was highest in the first 6 ( n  = 49/71; 69%; P  < 0.0001) and 6-24 ( n  = 33/58; 56.9%; P  < 0.0001) months of follow-up, compared deaths beyond 24 months ( n  = 23/85; 26.7%).

CONCLUSION

TB recurrence and TB-related mortality rates in PWH in Eastern Europe are still concerningly high and continue to be a clinical and public health challenge.

Derivation of a Protein Risk Score for Cardiovascular Disease Among a Multiracial and Multiethnic HIV+ Cohort

Background Cardiovascular disease risk prediction models underestimate CVD risk in people living with HIV (PLWH). Our goal is to derive a risk score based on protein biomarkers that could be used to predict CVD in PLWH. Methods and Results In a matched case-control study, we analyzed normalized protein expression data for participants enrolled in 1 of 4 trials conducted by INSIGHT (International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials). We used dimension reduction, variable selection and resampling methods, and multivariable conditional logistic regression models to determine candidate protein biomarkers and to generate a protein score for predicting CVD in PLWH. We internally validated our findings using bootstrap. A protein score that was derived from 8 proteins (including HGF [hepatocyte growth factor] and interleukin-6) was found to be associated with an increased risk of CVD after adjustment for CVD and HIV factors (odds ratio: 2.17 [95% CI: 1.58-2.99]). The protein score improved CVD prediction when compared with predicting CVD risk using the individual proteins that comprised the protein score. Individuals with a protein score above the median score were 3.10 (95% CI, 1.83-5.41) times more likely to develop CVD than those with a protein score below the median score. Conclusions A panel of blood biomarkers may help identify PLWH at a high risk for developing CVD. If validated, such a score could be used in conjunction with established factors to identify CVD at-risk individuals who might benefit from aggressive risk reduction, ultimately shedding light on CVD pathogenesis in PLWH.

Long-term evolution of comorbidities and their disease burden in individuals with and without HIV as they age: analysis of the prospective AGEhIV cohort study

BACKGROUND

People with HIV generally have more ageing-associated comorbidities than those without HIV. We aimed to establish whether the difference in comorbidities and their disease burden changes with ageing.

METHODS

In this prospective, longitudinal cohort study, we assessed comorbidities commonly associated with ageing every 2 years in 596 HIV-positive and 550 HIV-negative participants. HIV-positive participants were recruited from the HIV outpatient clinic of the Amsterdam University Medical Centres (Amsterdam, Netherlands). HIV-negative participants were recruited from the sexual health clinic and the Amsterdam Cohort Studies at the Public Health Service of Amsterdam (Amsterdam, Netherlands). Inclusion criteria were participants aged 45 years or older and, for HIV-negative participants, a documented HIV-negative antibody test. The mean number of comorbidities present over time was compared between groups by use of Poisson regression, accounting for dropout and death through joint survival models. Mean disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) accrued during 2-year intervals were compared between groups by use of an exponential hurdle model.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 29, 2010, and Oct 9, 2012, participants were enrolled and then prospectively followed up until their last visit before Oct 1, 2018. 1146 participants were followed up for a median 5·9 years (IQR 5·7-6·0), during which 231 participants (20·2%) dropped out: 145 (24·3%) of 596 HIV-positive and 86 (15·6%) of 550 HIV-negative. 38 (3·3%) of 1146 participants died: 31 (5·2%) of 596 HIV-positive and seven (1·3%) of 550 HIV-negative. 24 HIV-positive and two HIV-negative participants died from ageing-associated comorbidities. 15 HIV-positive participants versus one HIV-negative participant died from non-AIDS malignancies. At inclusion, mean number of comorbidities was higher in HIV-positive participants (0·65) than in HIV-negative participants (0·32; p<0·0001). Mean number of comorbidities increased at similar rates over time: rate ratio (RR) per year for HIV-positive participants 1·04 (95% CI 1·00-1·08), RR per year for HIV-negative participants 1·05 (1·01-1·08; p_interaction=0·78). Number of comorbidities was associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio 3·33 per additional comorbidity, 95% CI 2·27-4·88; p<0·0001). HIV-positive participants had higher increases in mean DALYs than HIV-negative participants (0·209 per year, 95% CI 0·162-0·256 vs 0·091 per year, 0·025-0·157; p_interaction=0·0045). This difference was reduced when deaths were excluded in establishing DALYs (0·127, 0·083-0·171 vs 0·066, 0·005-0·127; p_interaction =0·11).

INTERPRETATION

The larger comorbidity prevalence in HIV-positive participants aged 50-55 years on effective antiretroviral treatment than in HIV-negative participants increased similarly as participants aged and was associated with an increased risk of death, particularly of non-AIDS malignancies. Our findings reinforce the need for strategies to optimise prevention, screening, and early intervention.

FUNDING

Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, Aidsfonds, Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, and Merck & Co.

TRANSLATION

For the Dutch translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Recommendations for defining preventable HIV-related mortality for public health monitoring in the era of Getting to Zero: an expert consensus

Getting to Zero is a commonly cited strategic aim to reduce mortality due to both HIV and avoidable deaths among people with HIV. However, no clear definitions are attached to these aims with regard to what constitutes HIV-related or preventable mortality, and their ambition is limited. This Position Paper presents consensus recommendations to define preventable HIV-related mortality for a pragmatic approach to public health monitoring by use of national HIV surveillance data. These recommendations were informed by a comprehensive literature review and agreed by 42 international experts, including clinicians, public health professionals, researchers, commissioners, and community representatives. By applying the recommendations to 2019 national HIV surveillance data from the UK, we show that 30% of deaths among people with HIV were HIV-related or possibly HIV-related, and at least 63% of these deaths were preventable or potentially preventable. The application of these recommendations by health authorities will ensure consistent monitoring of HIV elimination targets and allow for the identification of inequalities and areas for intervention.

Effect of the introduction of screening for cancer precursor lesions on anal cancer incidence over time in people living with HIV: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Incidence of anal cancer is high in people living with HIV, particularly in men who have sex with men (MSM). Screening for and treatment of precursor lesions might prevent progression to anal cancer in people living with HIV. We examined trends in incidence of and mortality after anal cancer diagnosis in people living with HIV, including the effect of screening from 2007 onwards, in the Netherlands.

METHODS

In this observational cohort study, we analysed data from the ongoing open nationwide Dutch AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA) cohort. We included all consenting adults living with HIV and identified all primary anal squamous cell carcinoma. We reported temporal trends in incident anal cancer cases from Jan 1, 1996, to Dec 31, 2020, and all-cause and anal cancer-related mortality in individuals diagnosed with anal cancer. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to explore risk factors for incident anal cancer and multivariable Cox regression was used to explore risk factors for anal cancer-related mortality.

FINDINGS

Among 28 175 individuals in HIV care (59·7% MSM), 227 primary anal cancer cases were diagnosed. Despite the increasing average age of the cohort, crude incidence rates of anal cancer in MSM declined slowly over time, from 107·0 (95% CI 75·7-147·0) per 100 000 person-years in 1996-2005 to 93·7 (75·3-115·0) per 100 000 person-years in 2013-20 (p=0·49). Crude incidence rates in men who do not have sex with men (non-MSM) and women were generally lower than in MSM, but increased slightly over time, from 51·08 (95% CI 20·54-105·25) to 67·82 (40·83-105·91; p=0·52) per 100 000 person-years in non-MSM and from 8·09 (0·20-45·06) to 24·95 (10·03-51·40; p=0·29) per 100 000 person-years in women. The age-adjusted incidence rate in MSM in 2013-20 was significantly lower (rate ratio 0·62 [95% CI 0·41-0·92]) compared with in 1996-2005. Changes in risk factors (less smoking, cumulative exposure to CD4 count of <200 cells per μL, and plasma HIV-1 RNA of >1000 copies per mL) mostly explained the decrease in anal cancer risk over time in MSM. 3866 (23·0%) of 16 819 MSM participated in anal cancer screening at least once. TNM tumour staging was more favourable (Cochrane-Armitage test for trend p=0·033) in individuals diagnosed during screening. Crude anal cancer-associated 5-year mortality in people living with HIV decreased from 30·4% (1996-2005) to 18·3% (2013-20; odds ratio 0·48; p=0·070). Anal cancer-related mortality was 3·7% (95% CI 0·5-23·5) in all men who had been screened and 24·0% (95% CI 18·1-31·3) in men who had not been screened (p=0·023). In men, screening participation (hazard ratio [HR] 0·31, p=0·051) and cumulative exposure to CD4 counts of less than 200 cells per μL (HR 1·11 per year; p=0·0022) were independently associated with anal cancer-related mortality.

INTERPRETATION

As anal cancer incidence is slowly declining in MSM but not in non-MSM and women, health-care professionals should not focus only on MSM for anal cancer prevention. Men diagnosed with anal cancer during screening had improved survival, probably because they were diagnosed at an earlier disease stage. Next to preventing anal cancer, these data are an important justification to screen those most at risk of anal cancer.

FUNDING

None.

Incidence and risk factors for suicide, death due to substance use, and violent/accidental death in people with HIV

OBJECTIVE

Deaths due to suicide, substance use and violence/accident may reflect similar risk factors and overlap in their classification. This study aimed to investigate incidence and risk factors of mortality among people with HIV (PWH) due to these three related causes.

DESIGN

Prospectively collected data from PWH at least 18 years old and under active follow-up in the EuroSIDA study from 2007 to 2019 were analysed.

METHODS

Cause-specific Cox regression analysis was used to assess risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 17 881 participants were included, comprising 149 327 person-years of follow-up (PYFU). Forty participants died by suicide {incidence rate [IR] [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 0.3/1000 PYFU (0.2, 0.4)} 93 from substance use [IR (95% CI): 0.6/1000 PYFU (0.5, 0.8)], and 57 by violence/accident [IR (95% CI): 0.4/1000 PYFU (0.3, 0.5)]. An AIDS diagnosis within the last 12 months was associated with nine-fold increased risk of suicide vs. no history of AIDS [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 9.06; 95% CI: 2.07, 39.7]. Male gender was associated with double the risk of violent/accidental death (aHR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.09, 4.78). PWH in Eastern Europe and those who acquired HIV by injection drug use (IDU) demonstrated a greater risk of death due to substance use or violence/accident.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between a recent diagnosis of AIDS and suicide highlights a critical period for intervention. HIV infection acquired through IDU demonstrated an expected relationship with death due to substance use and violent/accidental deaths. Increased risk of death due to substance use and violence/accident in Eastern Europe demands investigation into specific differences that may drive that association.

Trends in Cause-Specific Mortality Among Veterans With HIV: A 35-Year (1982-2016) Analysis of the HIV Atlanta VA Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Causes of death and their trends among veterans with HIV (VWH) are different than those in the general population with HIV, but this has not been fully described. The objective was to understand the trends in, and risk factors for, all-cause and cause-specific mortality across eras of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) among VWH.

SETTING

The HIV Atlanta VA Cohort Study includes all VWH who ever sought care at the Atlanta VA Medical Center.

METHODS

Age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates were calculated annually and compared between pre-cART (1982-1996), early-cART (1997-2006), and late-cART (2007-2016) eras. Trends were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves, cumulative incidence functions, and joinpoint regression models. Risk factors were identified by Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Of the 4674 VWH in the HIV Atlanta VA Cohort Study, 1752 died; of whom, 1399 (79.9%), 301 (17.2%), and 52 (3.0%) were diagnosed with HIV in the pre-cART, early-cART, and late-cART eras, respectively. Significant increases were observed in rates of all-cause, AIDS-related, and non-AIDS-related mortality in the pre-cART era, followed by declines in the early-cART and late-cART eras. All-cause, AIDS-related, and non-AIDS-related mortality rates plummeted by 65%, 81%, and 45%, respectively, from the pre-cART to late-cART eras. However, VWH continue to die at higher rates due to AIDS-related infections, non-AIDS-related malignancies, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and renal failure than those in the general population with HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

In older populations with HIV, it is important that providers not only monitor for and treat diseases associated with aging but also intervene and address lifestyle risk factors.

Changes in body mass index and clinical outcomes after initiation of contemporary antiretroviral regimens

BACKGROUND

Weight gain is becoming increasingly prevalent amongst people with HIV (PWH) receiving contemporary antiretroviral treatment. We investigated BMI changes and clinical impact in a large prospective observational study.

METHODS

PWH aged ≥18 years were included who started a new antiretroviral (baseline) during 2010-2019 with baseline and ≥1 follow-up BMI assessment available. Rates of clinical outcomes (cardiovascular disease [CVD], malignancies, diabetes mellitus [DM] and all-cause mortality) were analysed using Poisson regression to assess effect of time-updated BMI changes (>1 kg/m 2 decrease, ±1 kg/m 2 stable, >1 kg/m 2 increase), lagged by 1-year to reduce reverse causality. Analyses were adjusted for baseline BMI plus key confounders including antiretroviral exposure.

RESULTS

6721 PWH were included; 72.3% were male, median age 48 years (interquartile range [IQR] 40-55). At baseline, 8.4% were antiretroviral-naive, and 5.0% were underweight, 59.7% healthy weight, 27.5% overweight, and 7.8% were living with obesity. There was an 8.2% increase in proportion of overweight and 4.8% in obesity over the study period (median follow-up 4.4 years [IQR 2.6-6.7]).100 CVDs, 149 malignancies, 144 DMs, and 257 deaths were observed with incidence rates 4.4, 6.8, 6.6, 10.6 per 1000 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Compared to stable BMI, >1 kg/m 2 increase was associated with increased risk of DM (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.36-2.80) and >1 kg/m 2 decrease with increased risk of death (adjusted IRR: 2.33, 95% CI: 1.73-3.13). No significant associations were observed between BMI changes and CVD or malignancies.

CONCLUSIONS

A BMI increase was associated with DM and a decrease associated with death.

The prevalence of hyperglycemia and its impact on mortality among people living with HIV in Georgia

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy and quality of life of people living with HIV have been dramatically improved after introducing antiretroviral therapy, and the prevalence of non-communicable diseases has increased. Several studies have found that hyperglycemia with or without type 2 diabetes was associated with poor outcomes in people living with HIV. The study's objective was to determine the prevalence of hyperglycemia and assess its impact on mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted among people living with HIV diagnosed in 2012-2018 and followed through 2020 at the Infectious Diseases, AIDS and Clinical Immunology Research Center in Tbilisi, Georgia. Primary outcomes of interest included the prevalence of hyperglycemia and mortality. Causes of death were classified according to the Coding of Death in HIV (CoDe) protocol.

RESULTS

Our study included 2914 people living with HIV. Two hundred and forty-two (8.3%) patients had hyperglycemia, with an increasing prevalence by age. Three hundred one (9.7%) participants died over the median 3.71 (IQR: 2.14-5.37) years of follow-up. Among these, 139 (46.2%) were due to AIDS- related causes, 123 (40.9%)-were due to non-AIDS causes, and in 39 (12.9%) cases, the cause of death could not be determined. Overall, the cohort contributed to 11,148 person-years of follow-up (PYFU), translating into a mortality rate of 2.70 deaths per 100 PYFU. The mortality rate was significantly higher among individuals with hyperglycemia-11.17 deaths per 100 PYFU vs 2.07 deaths per 100 PYFU among normoglycemic patients(p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Hyperglycemia was associated with increased odds of mortality. Screening and management of hyperglycemia should be integrated into routine HIV clinical services as part of a comprehensive care package.

Observational cohort study of rilpivirine (RPV) utilization in Europe

INTRODUCTION

Data on safety and effectiveness of RPV from the real-world setting as well as comparisons with other NNRTIs such as efavirenz (EFV) remain scarce.

METHODS

Participants of EuroSIDA were included if they had started a RPV- or an EFV-containing regimen over November 2011-December 2017. Statistical testing was conducted using non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test and Chi-square test. A logistic regression model was used to compare participants' characteristics by treatment group. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate the cumulative risk of virological failure (VF, two consecutive values > 50 copies/mL).

RESULTS

1,355 PLWH who started a RPV-based regimen (11% ART-naïve), as well as 333 initiating an EFV-containing regimen were included. Participants who started RPV differed from those starting EFV for demographics (age, geographical region) and immune-virological profiles (CD4 count, HIV RNA). The cumulative risk of VF for the RPV-based group was 4.5% (95% CI 3.3-5.7%) by 2 years from starting treatment (71 total VF events). Five out of 15 (33%) with resistance data available in the RPV group showed resistance-associated mutations vs. 3/13 (23%) among those in the EFV group. Discontinuations due to intolerance/toxicity were reported for 73 (15%) of RPV- vs. 45 (30%) of EFV-treated participants (p = 0.0001). The main difference was for toxicity of central nervous system (CNS, 3% vs. 22%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our estimates of VF > 50 copies/mL and resistance in participants treated with RPV were similar to those reported by other studies. RPV safety profile was favourable with less frequent discontinuation due to toxicity than EFV (especially for CNS).

Factors associated with the mortality of women living with HIV: a case-control study

This case-control study investigated factors associated with death among women living with HIV (WLHIV) in the city of Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil. Sociodemographic, parental and reproductive characteristics, exposure to HIV, laboratory markers and adherence to treatmen were variables examined. The cases were selected among WLHIV who were followed up by health care services for the vertical transmission of HIV (VT) and who died between the years of 2007 and 2017. The controls were the WLHIV who did not die. Sixty-six cases and 264 controls were included. Conditional Logistic Regression was conducted to estimate the Crude and Adjusted Odds Ratio. A conceptual block model was considered for the multivariate analysis. In addition to multiple pregnancies and worse immunological characteristics, WLHIV between 18 and 29 years of age (OR = 25.72; 95% CI: 4.45-148.42), drug users (OR = 7.09; 95% CI: 1.24-40.23) and who were not followed up during prenatal care (OR = 8.43; 95% CI: 1.58-44.87) were more likely to die. Conclusion: Young WLHIV and those with greater social vulnerability have a greater chance of death, and it is essential that health care and treatment strategies consider actions for the prevention of deaths taking into account the multiple vulnerabilities of these women.

The Association of HLA-B*35 and GSTT1 Genotypes and Hepatotoxicity in Thai People Living with HIV

Glutathione s-transferase (GST) is a family of drug-metabolizing enzymes responsible for metabolizing and detoxifying drugs and xenobiotic substances. Therefore, deletion polymorphisms of GSTs can be implicated in developing several pathological conditions, including antiretroviral drug-induced liver injury (ARVDILI). Notably, GST polymorphisms have been shown to be associated with ARVDILI risk. However, data on GST polymorphisms in the Thai population are limited. Therefore, this study investigated possible associations between GST genetic polymorphisms and ARVDILI development. A total of 362 people living with HIV (PLHIV) and 85 healthy controls from multiple centers were enrolled. GSTM1 and GSTT1 genetic polymorphisms were determined using polymerase chain reactions. In addition, HLA genotypes were determined using a sequence-based HLA typing method. After comparing GST genotypic frequencies, there was no significant difference between PLHIV and healthy volunteers. However, while observing the PLHIV group, GSTT1 wild type was significantly associated with a 2.04-fold increased risk of ARVDILI (95%CI: 1.01, 4.14; p = 0.045). Interestingly, a combination of GSTT1 wild type and HLA-B*35:05 was associated with a 2.28-fold higher risk of ARVDILI (95%CI: 1.15, 4.50; p = 0.02). Collectively, GSTT1 wild type and a combination of GSTT1 wild type plus HLA-B*35:05 were associated with susceptibility to ARVDILI in the Thai population.

A Systematic Review of Risk Factors for Suicide Among Persons Living with HIV (1996-2020)

Persons living with HIV (PWH) are at elevated risk for suicide. We conducted a systematic literature review following PRISMA-P guidelines to examine risk factors associated with suicide as a cause of morbidity among PWH. We searched six electronic databases using search terms (suicide, suicide attempt, self-harm, self-injurious behavior, HIV, AIDS, PWH). We focused on factors that were specific to HIV infection (CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, and antiretroviral therapy [ART]). The initial search yielded N = 2657 studies. Eligible studies included suicide as an outcome, quantitative study design, and publication in peer-reviewed journals from 1996 through 2020. Fourteen studies met inclusion criteria. PWH share risk factors for suicide found in the general population: psychiatric illness, previous suicide attempt, drug and alcohol misuse. PWH also have HIV-specific risk factors for suicide. HIV diagnosis in the past two years and transmission related to injection drug use were associated with increased risk; HIV-1 RNA, ART, and AIDS-defining illness were not.

COVID-19 mortality among people with diagnosed HIV compared to those without during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England

OBJECTIVES

We describe COVID-19 mortality among people with and without HIV during the first wave of the pandemic in England.

METHODS

National surveillance data on adults (aged ≥ 15 years) with diagnosed HIV resident in England were linked to national COVID-19 mortality surveillance data (2 March 2020-16 June 2020); HIV clinicians verified linked cases and provided information on the circumstances of death. We present COVID-19 mortality rates by HIV status, using negative binomial regression to assess the association between HIV and mortality, adjusting for gender, age and ethnicity.

RESULTS

Overall, 99 people with HIV, including 61 of black ethnicity, died of/with COVID-19 (107/100 000) compared with 49 483 people without HIV (109/100 000). Compared to people without HIV, higher COVID-19 mortality rates were observed in people with HIV of black (188 vs. 122/100 000) and Asian (131 vs. 77.0/100 000) ethnicity, and in both younger (15-59 years: 58.3 vs. 10.2/100 000) and older (≥ 60 years: 434 vs. 355/100 000) people. After adjustment for demographic factors, people with HIV had a higher COVID-19 mortality risk than those without (2.18; 95% CI: 1.76-2.70). Most people with HIV who died of/with COVID-19 had suppressed HIV viraemia (91%) and at least one comorbidity reported to be associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes (87%).

CONCLUSIONS

In the first wave of the pandemic in England, COVID-19 mortality among people with HIV was low, but was higher than in those without HIV, after controlling for demographic factors. This supports the strategy of prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination for people with HIV and strongly encouraging its uptake, especially in those of black and Asian ethnicity.

A Lower CD4 Count Predicts Most Causes of Death except Cardiovascular Deaths. The Austrian HIV Cohort Study

(1) Objective: To investigate changes in mortality rates and predictors of all-cause mortality as well as specific causes of death over time among HIV-positive individuals in the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era. (2) Methods: We analyzed all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality among the Austrian HIV Cohort Study between 1997 and 2014. Observation time was divided into five periods: Period 1: 1997–2000; period 2: 2001–2004; period 3: 2005–2008; period 4: 2009–2011; and period 5: 2012–2014. Mortality rates are presented as deaths per 100 person-years (d/100py). Potential risk factors associated with all-cause mortality and specific causes of death were identified by using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Models were adjusted for time-updated CD4, age and cART, HIV transmission category, population size of residence area and country of birth. To assess potential nonlinear associations, we fitted all CD4 counts per patient using restricted cubic splines with truncation at 1000 cells/mm³. Vital status of patients was cross-checked with death registry data. (3) Results: Of 6848 patients (59,704 person-years of observation), 1192 died: 380 (31.9%) from AIDS-related diseases. All-cause mortality rates decreased continuously from 3.49 d/100py in period 1 to 1.40 d/100py in period 5. Death due to AIDS-related diseases, liver-related diseases and non-AIDS infections declined, whereas cardiovascular diseases as cause of death remained stable (0.27 d/100py in period 1, 0.10 d/100py in period 2, 0.16 d/100py in period 3, 0.09 d/100py in period 4 and 0.14 d/100py in period 5) and deaths due to non-AIDS-defining malignancies increased. Compared to latest CD4 counts of 500 cells/mm³, lower CD4 counts conferred a higher risk of deaths due to AIDS-related diseases, liver-related diseases, non-AIDS infections and non-AIDS-defining malignancies, whereas no significant association was observed for cardiovascular mortality. Results were similar in sensitivity analyses where observation time was divided into two periods: 1997–2004 and 2005–2014. (4) Conclusions: Since the introduction of cART, risk of death decreased and causes of death changed. We do not find evidence that HIV-positive individuals with a low CD4 count are more likely to die from cardiovascular diseases.

All-Cause Mortality and Serious Non-AIDS Events in Adults With Low-level Human Immunodeficiency Virus Viremia During Combination Antiretroviral Therapy: Results From a Swedish Nationwide Observational Study

Background

The impact of low levels of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA (low-level viremia [LLV]) during combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on clinical outcomes is unclear. We explored the associations between LLV and all-cause mortality, AIDS, and serious non-AIDS events (SNAEs).

Methods

We grouped individuals starting cART 1996–2017 (identified from the Swedish InfCare HIV register) as virologic suppression (VS; <50 copies/mL), LLV (repeated viral load, 50–999 copies/mL), and nonsuppressed viremia (NSV; ≥1000 copies/mL). Separately, LLV was subdivided into 50–199 and 200–999 copies/mL (reflecting different definitions of virologic failure). Proportional-hazard models (including sex, age, pre-ART CD4 count and viral load, country of birth, injection drug use, treatment experience and interruptions, and an interaction term between viremia and time) were fitted for the study outcomes.

Results

A total of 6956 participants were followed for a median of 5.7 years. At the end of follow-up, 60% were categorized as VS, 9% as LLV, and 31% as NSV. Compared with VS, LLV was associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3–3.6). This association was also observed for LLV 50–199 copies/mL (aHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3–3.8), but was not statistically significant for LLV 200–999 copies/mL (aHR, 2.1; 95% CI, .96–4.7). LLV 50–999 copies/mL was not linked to increased risk of AIDS or SNAEs, but in subanalysis, LLV 200–999 copies/mL was associated with SNAEs (aHR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2–3.6).

Conclusions

In this population-based cohort, LLV during cART was associated with adverse clinical outcomes.

Prevalence and Outcomes for Heavily Treatment-Experienced Individuals Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in a European Cohort

BACKGROUND

Although antiretroviral treatments have improved survival of persons living with HIV, their long-term use may limit available drug options. We estimated the prevalence of heavily treatment-experienced (HTE) status and the potential clinical consequences of becoming HTE.

SETTING

EuroSIDA, a European multicenter prospective cohort study.

METHODS

A composite definition for HTE was developed, based on estimates of antiretroviral resistance and prior exposure to specific antiretroviral regimens. Risks of progressing to clinical outcomes were assessed by Poisson regression, comparing every HTE individual with 3 randomly selected controls who never became HTE.

RESULTS

Of 15,570 individuals under follow-up in 2010-2016, 1617 (10.4%, 95% CI: 9.9% to 10.9%) were classified as HTE. 1093 individuals became HTE during prospective follow-up (HTE incidence rate 1.76, CI: 1.66 to 1.87 per 100 person-years of follow-up). The number of HTE individuals was highest in West/Central Europe (636/4019 persons, 15.7%) and lowest in East Europe (26/2279 persons, 1.1%). Although most HTE individuals maintained controlled viral loads (<400 copies/mL), many had low CD4 counts (≤350 cells/µL). After controlling for age, immunological parameters and pre-existing comorbidities, HTE status was not associated with the risk of new AIDS (adjusted incidence rate ratio, aIRR 1.44, CI: 0.86 to 2.40, P = 0.16) or non-AIDS clinical events (aIRR 0.96, CI: 0.74 to 1.25, P = 0.77).

CONCLUSIONS

HTE prevalence increased with time. After adjusting for key confounding factors, there was no evidence for an increased risk of new AIDS or non-AIDS clinical events in HTE. Additional therapeutic options and effective management of comorbidities remain important to reduce clinical complications in HTE individuals.

Deaths Attributable to Cancer in the US Human Immunodeficiency Virus Population During 2001-2015

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced mortality among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but cancer remains an important cause of death. We characterized cancer-attributable mortality in the HIV population during 2001-2015.

METHODS

We used data from population-based HIV and cancer registries in the United States (US). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) associating cancer diagnoses with overall mortality, we could perhaps cut these words to accommodate the word limit. However readers will probably want to know what statistical adjustments were made to the model. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using these HRs and the proportion of deaths preceded by cancer. Cancer-specific PAFs and cancer-attributable mortality rates were calculated for demographic subgroups, AIDS-defining cancers (Kaposi sarcoma [KS], non-Hodgkin lymphoma [NHL], cervical cancer), and non-AIDS-defining cancers.

RESULTS

Cancer-attributable mortality was 386.9 per 100 000 person-years, with 9.2% and 5.0% of deaths attributed to non-AIDS-defining and AIDS-defining cancers, respectively. Leading cancer-attributable deaths were from NHL (3.5%), lung cancer (2.4%), KS (1.3%), liver cancer (1.1%), and anal cancer (0.6%). Overall, cancer-attributable mortality declined from 484.0 per 100 000 person-years during 2001-2005 to 313.6 per 100 000 person-years during 2011-2015, while the PAF increased from 12.6% to 17.1%; the PAF for non-AIDS-defining cancers increased from 7.2% to 11.8% during 2011-2015. Cancer-attributable mortality was highest among those aged ≥60 years (952.2 per 100 000 person-years), with 19.0% of deaths attributed to non-AIDS-defining cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cancer-attributable mortality has declined over time, it remains high and represents a growing fraction of deaths in the US HIV population. Mortality from non-AIDS-defining cancers may rise as the HIV population ages. ART access, early cancer detection, and improved cancer treatment are priorities for reducing cancer-attributable mortality.

The interrelationship of smoking, CD4+ cell count, viral load and cancer in persons living with HIV

BACKGROUND

It is unknown if the carcinogenic effect of smoking is influenced by CD4+ cell count and viral load in persons living with HIV.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

RESPOND participants with known smoking status were included. Poisson regression adjusting for baseline confounders investigated the interaction between current CD4+/viral load strata [good (CD4+ cell count ≥500 cells/μl and viral load <200 copies/ml], poor [CD4+ cell count ≤350 cells/μl and viral load >200 copies/ml] and intermediate [all other combinations]), smoking status and all cancers, non-AIDS defining cancers (NADCs), smoking-related cancers (SRCs) and infection-related cancers (IRCs).

RESULTS

Out of 19 602 persons, 41.3% were never smokers, 44.4% current and 14.4% previous smokers at baseline. CD4+/viral load strata were poor in 3.4%, intermediate in 44.8% and good in 51.8%. There were 513 incident cancers; incidence rate 6.9/1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 6.3-7.5]. Current smokers had higher incidence of all cancer (adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.45; 1.17-1.79), NADC (1.65; 1.31-2.09), SRC (2.21; 1.53-3.20) and IRC (1.38; 0.97-1.96) vs. never smokers. Those with poor CD4+/viral load had increased incidence of all cancer (5.36; 95% CI 3.71-7.75), NADC (3.14; 1.92-5.14), SRC (1.82; 0.76-4.41) and IRC (10.21; 6.06-17.20) vs. those with good CD4+/viral load. There was no evidence that the association between smoking and cancer subtypes differed depending on the CD4+/viral load strata (P > 0.1, test for interaction).

CONCLUSION

In the large RESPOND consortium, the impact of smoking on cancer was clear and reducing smoking rates should remain a priority. The association between current immune deficiency, virological control and cancer was similar for never smokers, current smokers and previous smokers suggesting similar carcinogenic effects of smoking regardless of CD4+ cell count and viral load.

Estimating a Set of Mortality Risk Functions with Multiple Contributing Causes of Death

BACKGROUND

There are few methodologic examples of how multiple causes of death may be summarized in cause-specific mortality analyses to address limitations of attributing death to a single underlying cause. We propose a cause-of-death weighting approach to estimate the set of risk functions of specific causes of mortality using both underlying and contributing cause-of-death information.

METHODS

We constructed weights according to a user-specified function. Using data from four southern US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) clinics, we constructed a cause of death-weighted Aalen-Johansen estimator of the cumulative incidence function to estimate risks of five specific causes of mortality in the full sample and by injection drug use history.

RESULTS

Among 7740 HIV-positive patients initiating antiretroviral therapy between 1999 and 2014, the 8-year risk of all-cause mortality was 17.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 16.5, 18.4]. The cause of death-weighted risk of HIV-related mortality was 6.7% (95% CI = 6.0, 7.3) and accounted for 39% (95% CI = 35, 42) of total mortality risk. This compared with 10.2% (95% CI = 9.2, 11.2) using only the underlying cause, in which case HIV-related deaths accounted for nearly 60% of total mortality risk. The proportion attributable to cardiovascular disease among those whose HIV risk factor was injection drug use was twice as high using cause-of-death weights compared with only the underlying cause (8%; 95% CI = 5, 11 vs 4%; 95% CI = 1, 6).

CONCLUSION

Using cause of death-weighted estimators to incorporate multiple causes of death may yield different conclusions regarding the importance of certain causes of mortality. See video abstract: http://links.lww.com/EDE/B706.

Causes and outcomes of hospitalizations among people living with HIV in Georgia's referral institution, 2012-2017

We assessed trends in causes and outcomes of hospitalization among people living with HIV (PLWH) admitted to the Infectious Diseases, AIDS and Clinical Immunology Research Center (IDACIRC) in Tbilisi, Georgia. Retrospective analysis included adult PLWH admitted to IDACIRC for at least 24 h. Internationally validated categorization was used to split AIDS admissions into mild, moderate, and severe AIDS. A total of 2085 hospitalizations among 1123 PLWH were registered over 2012-2017 with 65.1% (731/1123) of patients presenting with CD4 count <200. Of 2085 hospitalizations, 931 (44.7%) were due to AIDS-defining illnesses. In 2012, AIDS conditions accounted for 50.3% of admissions compared to 41.6% in 2017 (p = 0.16). Overall, 167 hospitalizations (8.0%) resulted in lethal outcome. AIDS admissions had higher mortality than non-AIDS admissions (11.5% vs 5.2%, p < 0.0001). Among 167 deceased patients, 137 (82.0%) had CD4 count <200 at admission. In multivariate analysis, factors significantly associated with mortality included severe AIDS versus non-AIDS admission (OR 2.81, 95% CI: 1.10-7.15), CD4 cell counts <50 (OR 4.34, 95% CI: 2.52-7.47), and 50-100 (OR 2.37, 95% CI: 1.27-4.42) versus >200. Active AIDS disease remains a significant cause of hospitalization and fatal outcome in Georgia. Earlier diagnosis of HIV is critical for decreasing AIDS hospitalizations and mortality.

Sensitivity and Specificity of the National Death Index for Multiple Causes of Death in People With HIV

OBJECTIVES

Inaccuracies in cause-of-death information in death certificates can reduce the validity of national death statistics and result in poor targeting of resources to reduce morbidity and mortality in people with HIV. Our objective was to measure the sensitivity, specificity, and agreement between multiple causes of deaths from death certificates obtained from the National Death Index (NDI) and causes determined by expert physician review.

METHODS

Physician specialists determined the cause of death using information collected from the medical records of 50 randomly selected HIV-infected people who died in San Francisco from July 1, 2016, through May 31, 2017. Using expert review as the gold standard, we measured sensitivity, specificity, and agreement.

RESULTS

The NDI had a sensitivity of 53.9% and a specificity of 66.7% for HIV deaths. The NDI had a moderate sensitivity for non-AIDS-related infectious diseases and non-AIDS-related cancers (70.6% and 75.0%, respectively) and high specificity for these causes (100.0% and 94.7%, respectively). The NDI had low sensitivity and high specificity for substance abuse (27.3% and 100.0%, respectively), heart disease (58.3% and 86.8%, respectively), hepatitis B/C (33.3% and 97.7%, respectively), and mental illness (50.0% and 97.8%, respectively). The measure of agreement between expert review and the NDI was lowest for HIV (κ = 0.20); moderate for heart disease (κ = 0.45) and hepatitis B/C (κ = 0.40); high for non-AIDS-related infectious diseases (κ = 0.76) and non-AIDS-related cancers (κ = 0.72); and low for all other causes of death (κ < 0.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support education and training of health care providers to improve the accuracy of cause-of-death information on death certificates.

COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death: disentangling facts and values

In the ongoing pandemic, death statistics influence people's feelings and government policy. But when does COVID-19 qualify as the cause of death? As philosophers of medicine interested in conceptual clarification, we address the question by analyzing the World Health Organization's rules for the certification of death. We show that for COVID-19, WHO rules take into account both facts (causal chains) and values (the importance of prevention).

Distinct risks, clinical characteristics and outcomes by age at time of HIV diagnosis

OBJECTIVES

New HIV diagnoses in persons aged > 50 years (hereafter 'older persons') are becoming more common; the clinical features and outcomes of these older individuals are poorly described.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all new adult HIV diagnoses between October 1989 and December 2019 in southern Alberta, Canada. Differences in risk for HIV acquisition and screening, sociodemographic/clinical characteristics, and causes of death were compared between individuals younger and older than 50 years at the time of diagnosis.

RESULTS

New HIV diagnoses in persons > 50 years old increased from 7% in 1990 to 18% in 2019. Risk for HIV acquisition and screening reasons differed by age. Heterosexual sex (29%) was the greatest risk factor among older persons, contrasting with male same sex activity in younger persons (51%) (P < 0.001). Illness was the most common indication for testing in older persons (47%), whereas younger persons were more likely to have requested testing (34%) (P < 0.001). Relationship status differed, with 33% of older persons being married to an opposite sex partner versus 12% in younger persons (P < 0.001). Although older persons had a lower mean nadir CD4 count (132 cells/µL) than younger persons (181 cells/µL) (P < 0.001), 80% of deaths between 2010 and 2019 in the older group were attributable to non-AIDS-related causes versus 47% in younger patients. Since 2000, AIDS-related deaths and potential years of life lost have declined for both age groups.

CONCLUSION

The increase in new HIV diagnoses in persons aged > 50 years in southern Alberta suggests that older individuals require customized approaches for optimizing HIV diagnosis and treatment.

Determining standardized causes of death of infants, children, and adolescents living with HIV in Asia

OBJECTIVE

To implement a standardized cause of death reporting and review process to systematically disaggregate causes of HIV-related deaths in a cohort of Asian children and adolescents.

DESIGN

Death-related data were retrospectively and prospectively assessed in a longitudinal regional cohort study.

METHODS

Children under routine HIV care at sites in Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam between 2008 and 2017 were followed. Causes of death were reported and then independently and centrally reviewed. Predictors were compared using competing risks survival regression analyses.

RESULTS

Among 5918 children, 5523 (93%; 52% male) had ever been on combination antiretroviral therapy. Of 371 (6.3%) deaths, 312 (84%) occurred in those with a history of combination antiretroviral therapy (crude all-cause mortality 9.6 per 1000 person-years; total follow-up time 32 361 person-years). In this group, median age at death was 7.0 (2.9-13) years; median CD4 cell count was 73 (16-325) cells/μl. The most common underlying causes of death were pneumonia due to unspecified pathogens (17%), tuberculosis (16%), sepsis (8.0%), and AIDS (6.7%); 12% of causes were unknown. These clinical diagnoses were further grouped into AIDS-related infections (22%) and noninfections (5.8%), and non-AIDS-related infections (47%) and noninfections (11%); with 12% unknown, 2.2% not reviewed. Higher CD4 cell count and better weight-for-age z-score were protective against death.

CONCLUSION

Our standardized cause of death assessment provides robust data to inform regional resource allocation for pediatric diagnostic evaluations and prioritization of clinical interventions, and highlight the continued importance of opportunistic and nonopportunistic infections as causes of death in our cohort.

Treatment outcomes of integrase inhibitors, boosted protease inhibitors and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors in antiretroviral-naïve persons starting treatment

OBJECTIVES

Although outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been evaluated in randomized controlled trials, experiences from subpopulations defined by age, CD4 count or viral load (VL) in heterogeneous real-world settings are limited.

METHODS

The study design was an international multicohort collaboration. Logistic regression was used to compare virological and immunological outcomes at 12 ± 3 months after starting ART with an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI), contemporary nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or boosted protease inhibitor (PI/b) with two nucleos(t)ides after 1 January 2012. The composite treatment outcome (cTO) defined success as VL < 200 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL with no regimen change and no AIDS/death events. Immunological success was defined as a CD4 count > 750 cells/μL or a 33% increase where the baseline CD4 count was ≥ 500 cells/μL. Poisson regression compared clinical failures (AIDS/death ≥ 14 days after starting ART). Interactions between ART class and age, CD4 count, and VL were determined for each endpoint.

RESULTS

Of 5198 ART-naïve persons in the International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Diseases (RESPOND), 45.4% started INSTIs, 26.0% PI/b and 28.7% NNRTIs; 880 (17.4%) were aged > 50 years, 2539 (49.4%) had CD4 counts < 350 cells/μL and 1891 (36.8%) had VL > 100 000 copies/mL. Differences in virological and immunological success and clinical failure among ART classes were similar across age groups (≤ 40, 40-50 and > 50 years), CD4 count categories (≤ 350 vs. > 350 cells/μL) and VL categories at ART initiation (≤ 100 000 vs. > 100 000 copies/mL), with all investigated interactions being nonsignificant (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Differences among ART classes in virological, immunological and clinical outcomes in ART-naïve participants were consistent irrespective of age, immune suppression or VL at ART initiation. While confounding by indication cannot be excluded, this provides reassuring evidence that such subpopulations will equally benefit from contemporary ART.

Decreased All-Cause and Liver-Related Mortality Risk in HIV/Hepatitis B Virus Coinfection Coinciding With the Introduction of Tenofovir-Containing Combination Antiretroviral Therapy

Background

The development of efficacious combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has led to a dramatic decrease in mortality in HIV-positive patients. Specific data on the impact in HIV/hepatitis B virus (HBV)–coinfected patients are lacking. In this study, all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks stratified per era of diagnosis are investigated.

Methods

Data were analyzed from HIV/HBV-coinfected patients enrolled in the ATHENA cohort between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2017. Risk for (cause-specific) mortality was calculated using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, comparing patients diagnosed before 2003 with those diagnosed ≥2003. Risk factors for all-cause and liver-related mortality were also assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.

Results

A total of 1301 HIV/HBV-coinfected patients were included (14 882 person-years of follow-up). One-hundred ninety-eight patients (15%) died during follow-up. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for all-cause mortality in patients diagnosed in or after 2003 was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.35–0.72) relative to patients diagnosed before 2003. Similar risk reduction was observed for liver-related (aHR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11–0.75) and AIDS-related mortality (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.22–0.87). Use of a tenofovir-containing regimen was independently associated with a reduced risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality. Prior exposure to didanosine/stavudine was strongly associated with liver-related mortality. Ten percent of the population used only lamivudine as treatment for HBV.

Conclusions

All-cause, liver-related, and AIDS-related mortality risk in HIV/HBV-coinfected patients has markedly decreased over the years, coinciding with the introduction of tenofovir. Tenofovir-containing regimens, in absence of major contraindications, should be strongly encouraged in this population.

Mortality and causes of death in people living with HIV in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy compared with the general population in Japan

Objectives:

To determine the mortality and causes of death in people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Japan.

Design:

A prospective cohort study at AIDS Clinical Center, Tokyo, which treats approximately 10% of PLHIV in care in Japan.

Methods:

Either PLHIV who visited our center for the first time between January 2005 and December 2014 or PLHIV who started their regular visit before January 2005 and visited us between January and March 2005 were included and followed by the end of 2016. Causes of death were defined according to the CoDe protocol.

Results:

Two thousand, seven hundred and ninety-seven PLHIV were analysed with total of 18 858 person-years of follow-up, which constitutes 14% of the estimated number of PLHIV in care in Japan. One hundred and sixty-five (5.9%) PLHIV died with all-cause mortality rate of 8.75 per 1000 person-years. All-cause mortality rate for PLHIV in care in Japan was estimated to be 8.75 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 5.53–12.0). Among causes of death, AIDS-defining illnesses accounted for 39% and malignancy contributed to 47%. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for all-cause mortality, malignancy-related mortality, and suicide were 5.96 (95% CI 5.05–6.87), 7.76 (95% CI 6.02–9.51), and 3.24 (95% CI 1.54–4.94), respectively. Even among the patients who were diagnosed early or without history of AIDS, SMR was four times higher than the general population.

Conclusion:

Mortality of PLHIV, even among those with early diagnosis, is substantially higher than that of the general population in Japan, highlighting the importance of further efforts towards prevention, early diagnosis and prompt treatment initiation.

Cryptococcal-related Mortality Despite Fluconazole Preemptive Treatment in a Cryptococcal Antigen Screen-and-Treat Program

BACKGROUND

Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening and treatment with preemptive fluconazole reduces the incidence of clinically evident cryptococcal meningitis in individuals living with advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease. However, mortality remains higher in CrAg-positive than in CrAg-negative patients with similar CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study to investigate causes of morbidity and mortality during 6 months of follow-up among asymptomatic CrAg-positive and CrAg-negative (ratio of 1:2) patients living with HIV with CD4 counts <100 cells/µL attending 2 hospitals in Johannesburg, South Africa. When possible, minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) was performed on participants who died.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven CrAg-positive and 134 CrAg-negative patients were enrolled. Death occurred in 17/67 (25%) CrAg-positive and 12/134 (9%) CrAg-negative participants (hazard ratio for death, adjusted for CD4 count, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.7; P = .006). Cryptococcal disease was an immediate or contributing cause of death in 12/17 (71%) CrAg-positive participants. Postmortem cryptococcal meningitis and pulmonary cryptococcosis were identified at MIA in all 4 CrAg-positive participants, 3 of whom had negative cerebrospinal fluid CrAg tests from lumbar punctures (LPs) at the time of CrAg screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Cryptococcal disease was an important cause of mortality among asymptomatic CrAg-positive participants despite LPs to identify and treat those with subclinical cryptococcal meningitis and preemptive fluconazole for those without meningitis. Thorough investigation for cryptococcal disease with LPs and blood cultures, prompt ART initiation, and more intensive antifungals may reduce mortality among asymptomatic CrAg-positive patients identified through screening.

Determinants of AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality among people living with HIV in Shiraz, southern Iran: a 20-year retrospective follow-up study

Background

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection has become a global concern. Determining the factors leading to death among HIV patients helps controlling Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. Up to now, little is known about mortality and its determinants among people living with HIV in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, including Iran. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk factors of AIDS-Related Mortality (ARM) and Non-AIDS-Related Mortality (NARM) among people with HIV in Iran.

Methods

This 20-year retrospective study was conducted on 1160 people with HIV whose data were collected from 1997 to 2017. The association of the study outcomes (ARM and NARM) with various study variables, including demographic status at the time of diagnosis and clinical indexes during the follow-up were examined to define the predictors of mortality among the patients. Regarding, Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models were fitted and Adjusted Hazard Ratios (AHR), Sub-distribution Hazard Ratio (SHR) and the 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were reported.

Results

during the follow-up period, 391 individuals (33.7%) died with 86,375 person-years of follow-up. Of the total deaths, 251 (64.2%) and 140 (35.8%) were ARM and NARM, respectively. Rates of the mortality caused by AIDS and non-AIDS were 3.2 and 4.5 per 1000 person-months, respectively. Responding to combined Antiretroviral Treatment (cART) 6 months after initiation, receiving Pneumocystis Pneumonia (PCP) prophylaxis, and higher CD4 count at diagnosis, reduced the hazard of ARM and NARM. However, older age, late HIV diagnosis, and last HIV clinical stages increased the hazard of AIDS related to mortality. Additionally, male gender, older age, incarceration history, and last HIV clinical stages increased the non-AIDS mortality.

Conclusions

Mortality caused by AIDS and non-AIDS remains high among people with HIV in Iran, particularly among males and those with late diagnosis. It seems that applying effective strategies to identify infected individuals at earlier stage of the infection, and targeting individuals with higher risk of mortality can decrease the mortality rate among HIV infected people.

An Emerging Concern-High Rates of Frailty among Middle-aged and Older Individuals Living with HIV

Background

The aim of the present study was to calculate a frailty index (FI) in older adults (≥50) living with HIV, search for cross-sectional associations with the FI, and investigate the association between the FI score and two-year mortality.

Methods

Cross-sectional study with a short-term prospective component for the determination of two-year mortality was performed. The study took place in an HIV outpatient clinic in Calgary, Canada between November 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018. Over 700 patients 50 years of age or older took part. We calculated a FI for each patient, examined associations between FI and select patient characteristics, and evaluated the association between FI value and two-year mortality.

Results

The mean FI was 0.303 (± 0.128). Mean FI did not differ between males and females, nor was it associated with either nadir or current CD4 cell count. It did increase with age, duration of ART, and duration of diagnosed HIV infection. Mean FI was higher among those who died compared to survivors (0.351 vs. 0.301; p=.033).

Conclusions

Frailty is highly prevalent in persons living with HIV and associated with a higher mortality rate. Health-care providers should be aware of the earlier occurrence of frailty in adults living with HIV.

Parameter estimates for trends and patterns of excess mortality among persons on antiretroviral therapy in high-income European settings

INTRODUCTION

HIV cohort data from high-income European countries were compared with the UNAIDS Spectrum modelling parameters for these same countries to validate mortality rates and excess mortality estimates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

Data from 2000 to 2015 were analysed from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) for Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland. Flexible parametric models were used to compare all-cause mortality rates in the ART-CC and Spectrum. The percentage of AIDS-related deaths and excess mortality (both are the same within Spectrum) were compared, with excess mortality defined as that in excess of the general population mortality.

RESULTS

Analyses included 94 026 PLHIV with 585 784 person-years of follow-up, from which there were 5515 deaths. All-cause annual mortality rates in Spectrum for 2000-2003 were 0.0121, reducing to 0.0078 in 2012-2015, whilst the ART-CC's corresponding annual mortality rates were 0.0151 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.0130-0.0171] reducing to 0.0049 (95% CI: 0.0039-0.0060). The percentage of AIDS-related deaths in Spectrum was 74.7% in 2000-2003, dropping to 43.6% in 2012-2015. In the ART-CC, AIDS-related mortality constitutes 45.3% (95% CI: 38.4-52.9%) of mortality in 2000-2003 and 26.7% (95% CI: 19-46%) between 2012 and 2015. Excess mortality in the ART-CC was broadly similar to the Spectrum estimates, dropping from 75.3% (95% CI: 60.3-95.2%) in 2000-2003 to 30.7% (95% CI: 25.5-63.7%) in 2012-2015.

CONCLUSION

All-cause mortality assumptions for PLHIV on ART in high-income European settings should be adjusted in Spectrum to be higher in 2000-2003 and decline more quickly to levels currently captured for recent years.

Factors influencing harmonized health data collection, sharing and linkage in Denmark and Switzerland: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The digitalization of medicine has led to a considerable growth of heterogeneous health datasets, which could improve healthcare research if integrated into the clinical life cycle. This process requires, amongst other things, the harmonization of these datasets, which is a prerequisite to improve their quality, re-usability and interoperability. However, there is a wide range of factors that either hinder or favor the harmonized collection, sharing and linkage of health data.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aims to identify barriers and facilitators to health data harmonization-including data sharing and linkage-by a comparative analysis of studies from Denmark and Switzerland.

METHODS

Publications from PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE and CINAHL involving cross-institutional or cross-border collection, sharing or linkage of health data from Denmark or Switzerland were searched to identify the reported barriers and facilitators to data harmonization.

RESULTS

Of the 345 projects included, 240 were single-country and 105 were multinational studies. Regarding national projects, a Swiss study reported on average more barriers and facilitators than a Danish study. Barriers and facilitators of a technical nature were most frequently reported.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review gathered evidence from Denmark and Switzerland on barriers and facilitators concerning data harmonization, sharing and linkage. Barriers and facilitators were strictly interrelated with the national context where projects were carried out. Structural changes, such as legislation implemented at the national level, were mirrored in the projects. This underlines the impact of national strategies in the field of health data. Our findings also suggest that more openness and clarity in the reporting of both barriers and facilitators to data harmonization constitute a key element to promote the successful management of new projects using health data and the implementation of proper policies in this field. Our study findings are thus meaningful beyond these two countries.

The Effect of Interrupted/Deferred Antiretroviral Therapy on Disease Risk: A SMART and START Combined Analysis

Background

Pooled data from the SMART and START trials were used to compare deferred/intermittent versus immediate/continuous antiretroviral therapy (ART) on disease risk.

Methods

Endpoints assessed were AIDS, serious non-AIDS (SNA), cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and death. Pooled (stratified by study) hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox models were obtained for deferred/intermittent ART versus immediate/continuous ART; analyses were conducted to assess consistency of HRs across baseline-defined subgroups.

Results

Among 10156 participants, there were 124 AIDS, 247 SNA, 117 cancers, 103 CVD, and 120 deaths. Interventions in each trial led to similar differences in CD4 count and viral suppression. Pooled HRs (95% confidence interval) of deferred/intermittent ART versus immediate/continuous ART were for AIDS 3.63 (2.37-5.56); SNA 1.62 (1.25-2.09); CVD 1.59 (1.07-2.37); cancer 1.93 (1.32-2.83); and death 1.80 (1.24-2.61). Underlying risk was greater in SMART than START. Given the similar HRs for each trial, absolute risk differences between treatment groups were greater in SMART than START. Pooled HRs were similar across subgroups.

Conclusions

Treatment group differences in CD4 count and viral suppression were similar in SMART and START. Likely as a consequence, relative differences in risk of AIDS and SNA between immediate/continuous ART and deferred/intermittent ART were similar.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT00027352 and NCT00867048.

The EuroSIDA study: 25 years of scientific achievements

The EuroSIDA study was initiated in 1994 and follows adult people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 100 collaborating clinics across 35 countries covering all European regions, Israel and Argentina. The study aims to study the long-term virological, immunological and clinical outcomes of PLHIV and to monitor temporal changes and regional differences in outcomes across Europe. Annually collected data include basic demographic characteristics, information on AIDS- and non-AIDS-related clinical events, and details about antiretroviral therapy (ART), hepatitis C treatment and other medications, in addition to a range of laboratory values. The summer 2016 data set held data from a total of 23 071 individuals contributing 174 481 person-years of follow-up, while EuroSIDA's unique plasma repository held over 160 000 samples. Over the past 25 years, close to 300 articles have been published in peer-reviewed journals (h-index 52), covering a range of scientific focus areas, including monitoring of clinical and virological outcomes, ART uptake, efficacy and adverse events, the influence of hepatitis virus coinfection, variation in the quality of HIV care and management across settings and regions, and biomarker research. Recognizing that there remain unresolved issues in the clinical care and management of PLHIV in Europe, EuroSIDA was one of the cohorts to found The International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Disease (RESPOND) cohort consortium on infectious diseases in 2017. In celebration of the EuroSIDA study's 25th anniversary, this article aims to summarize key scientific findings and outline current and future scientific focus areas.

Impact of hepatitis C virus antibody positivity on mortality and causes of death in people living with HIV in Georgia

Hepatitis C co-infection in people living with HIV (PLWH) is common in Georgia. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is widely available in the country since 2004, and from 2011, patients have unlimited access to hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. A retrospective nationwide cohort study included adult PLWH diagnosed between 2004–2016, who were followed up until 31 December 2017. Predictors of mortality were assessed in Cox proportional hazards regression model. A total of 4560 persons contributed 22,322 person-years (PY) of follow-up, including 2058 (45.1%, 10,676 PY) anti-HCV+ patients. After the median 4.1 years of follow-up, 954 persons died, including 615 anti-HCV+ patients. Persons with HCV had higher overall mortality compared to HIV monoinfection (5.76/100 PY vs. 2.91/100 PY, p < 0.0001). In multivariable analysis, anti-HCV positivity was significantly associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.09–1.85). Among anti-HCV+ persons, liver-related mortality due to viral hepatitis before the availability of HCV therapy (2004–2011) was 2.11 cases per 100 PY and this decreased to 0.79 cases per 100 PY after 2011 (p < 0.0001). AIDS remained the leading cause of death prior to and after 2011. Wide availability of ART and anti-HCV therapy translated into a significant decline in mortality including due to liver-related causes. Improving earlier diagnosis will decrease excess AIDS-related mortality among people living with HIV/HCV co-infection.

Examining Mortality to Identify Opportunities for Improved Care Among Adults with HIV in a Single Academic Medical Center

Mortality for people living with HIV (PLWH) has dramatically decreased since the mid-1990s and the proportion of deaths attributable to non-AIDS-related conditions has increased. Deceased PLWH were identified from a single academic medical center through provider survey and electronic medical record query. Cause of death was determined using the Coding Causes of Death in HIV tool following review of available medical records. Chart review of comorbidities, demographics, laboratory values, and previous completion of screening tests for malignancies was conducted for deaths during the period of 2013-2017. The proportion of AIDS-related deaths decreased markedly between 1995 and 2017, while the proportion of deaths from non-AIDS malignancies increased. From 2013 to 2017, 30 of 121 deaths were attributed to AIDS-related conditions, 32 to non-AIDS malignancies, 14 to suicide/homicide or sudden death, 10 to cardiac causes, 28 to other non-HIV causes, and 7 to unknown causes. Those who died of non-AIDS-related malignancies were older than AIDS-related deaths [mean age 55.8 (7.6) vs. 47.3 (13.5), p value = .003]. Less than half of potentially eligible patients had documented colon cancer screening. The number of individuals dying from AIDS-related conditions has decreased significantly and non-AIDS-related causes, particularly non-AIDS-related malignancies, have become more prominent causes of death. As our patients age, a greater focus needs to be placed on management of comorbid illnesses and screening and prevention of malignancy.

Cause of death among HIV patients in London in 2016

OBJECTIVES

Since 2013, the London HIV Mortality Review Group has conducted annual reviews of deaths among people with HIV to reduce avoidable mortality.

METHODS

All London HIV care Trusts reported data on 2016 patient deaths in 2017. Deaths were submitted using a modified Causes of Death in HIV reporting form and categorized by a specialist HIV pathologist and two HIV clinicians.

RESULTS

There were 206 deaths reported; 77% were among men. Median age at death was 56 years. Cause was established for 82% of deaths, with non-AIDS-related malignancies and AIDS-defining illnesses being the most common causes reported. Risk factors in the year before death included: tobacco smoking (37%), excessive alcohol consumption (19%), non-injecting drug use (10%), injecting drug use (7%) and opioid substitution therapy (6%). Thirty-nine per cent of patients had a history of depression, 33% chronic hypertension, 27% dyslipidaemia, 17% coinfection with hepatitis B virus and/or hepatitis C virus and 14% diabetes mellitus. At the time of death, 81% of patients were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), 61% had a CD4 count < 350 cells/μL, and 24% had a viral load ≥ 200 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL. Thirty-six per cent of deaths were unexpected; 61% of expected deaths were in hospital. Two-thirds of expected deaths had a prior end-of-life care discussion documented.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, most deaths were attributable to non-AIDS-related conditions and the majority of patients were on ART and virally suppressed. However, several potentially preventable deaths were identified and underlying risk factors were common. As London HIV patients are not representative of people with HIV in the UK, a national mortality review is warranted.