An improved model for prediction of resuspension

A Review of the Resuspension of Radioactively Contaminated Particles by Vehicle and Pedestrian Traffic-Current Theory, Practice, Gaps, and Needs

ABSTRACT

The resuspension of radioactively contaminated particles in a built environment, such as from urban surfaces like foliage, building exteriors, and roadways, is described empirically by current plume and dosimetry models used for hazard assessment and long-term risk purposes. When applying these models to radiological contamination emergencies affecting urban areas, the accuracy of the results for recent contamination deposition is impacted in two main ways. First, the data supporting the underlying resuspension equations was acquired for open, quiescent conditions with no vehicle traffic or human activities, so it is not necessarily representative of the urban environment. Second, mechanical disturbance by winds in urban canyons and during emergency operations caused by vehicle traffic and human activities are not directly considered by the equations. Accordingly, plume and dosimetry models allow the user to input certain compensating values, but the models do not necessarily supply users instructions on what values to use. This manuscript reviews the available literature to comprehensively and consistently pool data for resuspension due to mechanically induced resuspension applicable to urban contamination. Because there are few studies that directly measured radioactive resuspension due to vehicles and pedestrians, this review novelly draws on a range of other studies involving non-radioactive particles, ranging from outdoor air pollution emissions to indoor allergen transport. The results lead to tabulated, recommended values for specific conditions in the emergency phase to help users of plume and dosimetry models maintain the conservativeness needed to properly capture the potential radiation dose posed by mechanically induced resuspension. These values are of benefit to model users until better data are available. The results also suggest the types of data that may result in improved plume and dose modeling.

A Methodology for Calculation of Internal Dose Following Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from the Detonation of a Nuclear Fission Device

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology for the calculation of internal doses of radiation following exposure to radioactive fallout from the detonation of a nuclear fission device. Reliance is on methodology previously published in the open literature or in reports not readily available, though some new analysis is also included. Herein, we present two methodologic variations: one simpler to implement, the other more difficult but more flexible. The intention is to provide in one place a comprehensive methodology. Pathways considered are (1) the ingestion of vegetables and fruits contaminated by fallout directly, (2) the ingestion of vegetables and fruits contaminated by continuing deposition by rain- or irrigation-splash and resuspension, (3) the ingestion of vegetables and fruits contaminated by absorption of radionuclides by roots after tillage of soil, (4) the non-equilibrium transfer of short-lived radionuclides through the cow-milk and goat-milk food chains, (5) the equilibrium transfer of long lived radionuclides through milk and meat food chains, and (6) inhalation of descending fallout. Uncertainty in calculated results is considered. This is one of six companion papers that describe a comprehensive methodology for assessing both external and internal dose following exposures to fallout from a nuclear detonation. Input required to implement the dose-estimation model for any particular location consists of an estimate of the post-detonation external gamma-exposure rate and an estimate of the time of arrival of the fallout cloud. The additional data required to make such calculations are included in the six companion papers.

Dose Estimation for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from Nuclear Detonations

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the prospects that a nuclear device might be detonated due to a regional or global political conflict, by violation of present nuclear weapons test ban agreements, or due to an act of terrorism, has increased. Thus, the need exists for a well conceptualized, well described, and internally consistent methodology for dose estimation that takes full advantage of the experience gained over the last 70 y in both measurement technology and dose assessment methodology. Here, the models, rationale, and data needed for a detailed state-of-the-art dose assessment for exposure to radioactive fallout from nuclear detonations discussed in five companion papers are summarized. These five papers present methods and data for estimating radionuclide deposition of fallout radionuclides, internal and external dose from the deposited fallout, and discussion of the uncertainties in the assessed doses. In addition, this paper includes a brief discussion of secondary issues related to assessments of radiation dose from fallout. The intention of this work is to provide a usable and consistent methodology for both prospective and retrospective assessments of exposure from radioactive fallout from a nuclear detonation.

Radionuclide resuspension across ecosystems and environmental disturbances

Exposure assessment from radionuclides and other soil-bound contaminants often requires quantifying the amount of contaminant resuspended in the air. Rates and controlling factors of radionuclide resuspension and wind erosion of soil are clearly related but have largely been studied separately. Here, we review both and then integrate wind erosion measurements with the radiological resuspension paradigm to provide better estimates of resuspension factors across a broad range of ecosystems and environmental conditions. Radionuclide resuspension by wind was initially investigated during the era of aboveground nuclear weapons testing. Predictive dose models were developed from empirically-derived ratios of air and soil concentrations, otherwise called the resuspension factor. Resuspension factors were shown to generally predict radionuclide concentrations in air, but they were site-specific and largely derived from the arid and semi-arid environments surrounding nuclear weapons testing locations. In contrast, wind erosion studies from the agricultural and environmental sciences have produced more mechanistic models and a relatively robust data set of wind erosion rates and model parameters across a range of ecosystems. We sequentially show the mathematics linking measured sediment flux from wind erosion rate measurements to resuspension factors using the concept of transport capacity and its relationship to the deposition velocity. We also describe the conceptual framework describing how resuspension factors change through time and the mathematical models describing this decrease. We then show how vertical mass flux measurements across ecosystems were categorized and used to calculate ecosystem-based resuspension factors. These calculations allow generalized estimation of radionuclide resuspension factors across ecosystem types as a function of disturbance and as input for dose calculations.

The Methodology Used to Assess Doses from the First Nuclear Weapons Test (Trinity) to the Populations of New Mexico

Trinity was the first test of a nuclear fission device. The test took place in south-central New Mexico at the Alamogordo Bombing and Gunnery Range at 05:29 AM on 16 July 1945. This article provides detailed information on the methods that were used in this work to estimate the radiation doses that were received by the population that resided in New Mexico in 1945. The 721 voting precincts of New Mexico were classified according to ecozone (plains, mountains, or mixture of plains and mountains), and size of resident population (urban or rural). Methods were developed to prepare estimates of absorbed doses from a range of 63 radionuclides to five organs or tissues (thyroid, active marrow, stomach, colon, and lung) for representative individuals of each voting precinct selected according to ethnicity (Hispanic, White, Native American, and African American) and age group in 1945 (in utero, newborn, 1-2 y, 3-7 y, 8-12 y, 13-17 y, and adult). Three pathways of human exposure were included: (1) external irradiation from the radionuclides deposited on the ground; (2) inhalation of radionuclide-contaminated air during the passage of the radioactive cloud and, thereafter, of radionuclides transferred (resuspended) from soil to air; and (3) ingestion of contaminated water and foodstuffs. Within the ingestion pathway, 13 types of foods and sources of water were considered. Well established models were used for estimation of doses resulting from the three pathways using parameter values developed from extensive literature review. Because previous experience and calculations have shown that the annual dose delivered during the year following a nuclear test is much greater than the doses received in the years after that first year, the time period that was considered is limited to the first year following the day of the test (16 July 1945). Numerical estimates of absorbed doses, based on the methods described in this article, are presented in a separate article in this issue.

Estimated Radiation Doses Received by New Mexico Residents from the 1945 Trinity Nuclear Test

The National Cancer Institute study of projected health risks to New Mexico residents from the 1945 Trinity nuclear test provides best estimates of organ radiation absorbed doses received by representative persons according to ethnicity, age, and county. Doses to five organs/tissues at significant risk from exposure to radioactive fallout (i.e., active bone marrow, thyroid gland, lungs, stomach, and colon) from the 63 most important radionuclides in fresh fallout from external and internal irradiation were estimated. The organ doses were estimated for four resident ethnic groups in New Mexico (Whites, Hispanics, Native Americans, and African Americans) in seven age groups using: (1) assessment models described in a companion paper, (2) data on the spatial distribution and magnitude of radioactive fallout derived from historical documents, and (3) data collected on diets and lifestyles in 1945 from interviews and focus groups conducted in 2015-2017 (described in a companion paper). The organ doses were found to vary widely across the state with the highest doses directly to the northeast of the detonation site and at locations close to the center of the Trinity fallout plume. Spatial heterogeneity of fallout deposition was the largest cause of variation of doses across the state with lesser differences due to age and ethnicity, the latter because of differences in diets and lifestyles. The exposure pathways considered included both external irradiation from deposited fallout and internal irradiation via inhalation of airborne radionuclides in the debris cloud as well as resuspended ground activity and ingestion of contaminated drinking water (derived both from rivers and rainwater cisterns) and foodstuffs including milk products, beef, mutton, and pork, human-consumed plant products including leafy vegetables, fruit vegetables, fruits, and berries. Tables of best estimates of county population-weighted average organ doses by ethnicity and age are presented. A discussion of our estimates of uncertainty is also provided to illustrate a lower and upper credible range on our best estimates of doses. Our findings indicate that only small geographic areas immediately downwind to the northeast received exposures of any significance as judged by their magnitude relative to natural radiation. The findings presented are the most comprehensive and well-described estimates of doses received by populations of New Mexico from the Trinity nuclear test.

Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management Data Products

An interlaboratory effort has developed a probabilistic framework to characterize uncertainty in data products that are developed by the US Department of Energy Consequence Management Program in support of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the probability distributions of input variables and the statistical methods used to propagate and quantify the overall uncertainty of the derived response levels that are used as contours on data products due to the uncertainty in input parameters. Uncertainty analysis results are also presented for several study scenarios. This paper includes an example data product to illustrate the potential real-world implications of incorporating uncertainty analysis results into data products that inform protective action decisions. Data product contours that indicate areas where public protection actions may be warranted can be customized to an acceptable level of uncertainty. The investigators seek feedback from decision makers and the radiological emergency response community to determine how uncertainty information can be used to support the protective action decision-making process and how it can be presented on data products.

Reconstruction of atmospheric concentrations of enriched uranium from the former Apollo facility, Apollo, Pennsylvania, USA

The former Apollo facility in western Pennsylvania converted enriched uranium hexafluoride into uranium oxide for shipment to nuclear fuel fabrication plants from 1957 to 1983. Atmospheric releases of uranium from plant operations were estimated from stack sampling and production records. Releases occurred through stacks, rooftop vents, and an incinerator that operated from 1964 to 1969. Roof vents that exhausted workplace air was the major emission source from the plant. Total estimated release of uranium activity (including ²³⁴U, ²³⁵U, and ²³⁸U) to the air was 27.9 GBq. Atmospheric transport modeling was performed using a complex terrain model because the plant was located in an incised river valley. Almost two years of meteorological data were collected from a nearby 10-m tower, along with sounding from a collocated sodar. Light mean wind speed (1.56 m s^-1) and predominately stable atmospheric conditions frequently resulted in poor dispersion conditions in the facility environs. Environmental sampling included continuous air monitoring data and depth profiles of uranium in soil that was deposited from airborne releases. Soil measurements exhibited a sharp drop-off in uranium concentrations with distance from the facility, indicating that large non-inhalable particles were emitted to the atmosphere. Large particles (~15-25 μm aerodynamic equivalent diameter) accounted for 17.5% of the total emissions. Soil measurements were used for model calibration and validation, while air measurements were used to evaluate model performance. Air concentrations were generally over-predicted for locations near the facility but showed only a slight positive bias for locations north of the facility. Predicted uranium activity air concentrations from Apollo sources averaged over 34 years were about three times greater than the background gross alpha activity value of 81 μBq m^-3 in a ~0.5 km² region surrounding the Apollo facility. The contribution of Apollo uranium to the gross alpha air concentration would have been negligible several kilometers from the facility.

History of Dose, Risk, and Compensation Assessments for US Veterans of the 1966 Plutonium Cleanup in Palomares, Spain

In 1966, about 1,600 US military men-mostly Air Force-participated in a cleanup of plutonium dispersed from two nuclear bombs in Palomares, Spain. As a base for future analyses, we provide a history of the Palomares incident, including the dosimetry and risk analyses carried out to date and the compensation assessments made for veterans. By law, compensation for illnesses attributed to ionizing radiation is based on maximum estimated doses and standard risk coefficients, with considerable benefit of the doubt given to claimants when there is uncertainty. In the Palomares case, alpha activity in urine fell far faster than predicted by plutonium biokinetic excretion models used at the time. Most of the measurements were taken on-site but were disqualified on the grounds that they were "unreasonably high" and because there was a possibility of environmental contamination. Until the end of 2013, the Air Force used low dose estimates derived from environmental measurements carried out well after the cleanup. After these estimates were questioned by Congress, the Air Force adopted higher dose estimates based on plutonium concentration measurements in urine samples collected from 26 veterans after they left Palomares. The Air Force assumed that all other cleanup veterans received lower doses and therefore assigned to them maximum organ doses based on the individual among the 26 with the lowest urine measurements. These resulting maximum organ doses appear to be sufficient to justify compensation to all Palomares veterans with lung and bone cancer and early-onset liver cancer and leukemia but not other radiogenic cancers.

Reassessment of Resuspension Factor Following Radionuclide Dispersal: Toward a General-purpose Rate Constant

A recent analysis of historical radionuclide resuspension datasets confirmed the general applicability of the Anspaugh and modified Anspaugh models of resuspension factors following both controlled and disastrous releases. While observations appear to have larger variance earlier in time, previous studies equally weighted the data for statistical fit calculations; this could induce a positive skewing of resuspension coefficients in the early time-period. A refitting is performed using a relative instrumental weighting of the observations. Measurements within a 3-d window are grouped into singular sample sets to construct standard deviations. The resulting best-fit equations produce tamer exponentials, which give decreased integrated resuspension factor values relative to those reported by Anspaugh. As expected, the fits attenuate greater error among the data at earlier time. The reevaluation provides a sharper contrast between the empirical models and reaffirms their deficiencies in the short-lived timeframe wherein the dynamics of particulate dispersion dominate the resuspension process.

Dynamics of body burdens and doses due to internal irradiation from intakes of long-lived radionuclides by residents of Ozyorsk situated near Mayak PA

This paper presents and discusses new autopsy results and other historic data from earlier autopsies and environmental monitoring linked to releases from the Mayak PA facilities in the Chelyabinsk oblast in the southern Urals. The focus is on residents of the town of Ozyorsk located near to Mayak PA and the dynamics of body burdens and radiation doses from inhalation of plutonium alpha and americium-241, and ingestion of strontium-90 and caesium-137. It is demonstrated that accumulation and exposure from these radionuclides was mainly due to unplanned releases in the 1950s and 60s. The mean content of plutonium alpha at the time of autopsy of people commencing residence in Ozyorsk from 1949 to 1959 was about 3.5 Bq, falling to 0.2 Bq in those arriving after 1990. A reducing trend was also seen for (241)Am. The highest (90)Sr content in Ozyorsk residents was measured in 1967. The (137)Cs body content of residents arriving in Ozyorsk at any time was in almost all cases below the limit of detection. The committed effective dose from internal exposure to these long-lived radionuclides which would have been accumulated in Ozyorsk residents if present from 1949 to 2013 is estimated to be 13 mSv. This dose is primarily attributed to intakes during 1949 to 1959 when the annual effective dose rate was approximately 1 mSv y(-1). The current value is about 0.1 mSv y(-1). This dose is about 20 times higher than the dose from global man-made fallout, which is about 0.005 mSv y(-1) at present, but much lower than that from natural background radiation, i.e. about 2 mSv y(-1). The experience gained from this work and continuing activities can contribute to the development of improved international guidance in legacy situations, particularly as regards the provision and use of monitoring data to test and thereby build confidence in prognostic models for radiation conditions and potential future exposures. The scope includes evidence for the rate of reduction in radionuclide concentrations in environmental media and in their bioavailability, resuspension of long-lived alpha radionuclides, uptake of (90)Sr and (137)Cs in the food-chain, and confirmation of cumulative uptake via autopsy and whole body counting measurements. Continuing investigations will thus support decisions on future planned releases and contribute to planning of remediation of other areas affected by historic releases.

Environmental releases from fuel cycle facility: part 1: radionuclide resuspension vs. stack releases on ambient airborne uranium and thorium levels

Airborne activity levels of uranium and thorium series were measured in the vicinity (1.1 km) of a uranium (UF4) processing plant, located in Malvési, south of France. Regarding its impact on the environment, this facility is characterized by its routine atmospheric releases of uranium and by the emission of radionuclide-labelled particles from a storage pond filled with waste water or that contain dried sludge characterized by traces of plutonium and thorium ((230)Th). This study was performed during a whole year (November 2009-November 2010) and based on weekly aerosol sampling. Thanks to ICP-MS results, it was possible to perform investigations of uranium and thorium decay product concentration in the air. The number of aerosol filters sampled (50) was sufficient to establish a relationship between airborne radionuclide variations and the wind conditions. As expected, the more the time spent in the plume, the higher the ambient levels. The respective contributions of atmospheric releases and resuspension from local soil and waste ponds on ambient dust load and uranium-bearing aerosols were estimated. Two shutdown periods dedicated to facility servicing made it possible to estimate the resuspension contribution and to specify its origin (local or regional) according to the wind direction and remote background concentration. Airborne uranium mainly comes from the emission stack and, to a minor extent (∼20%), from wind resuspension of soil particles from the surrounding fields and areas devoted to waste storage. Moreover, weighed activity levels were clearly higher during operational periods than for shutdown periods.

Default operational intervention levels (OILs) for severe nuclear power plant or spent fuel pool emergencies

Experience and studies show that for an emergency at a nuclear power plant involving severe core damage or damage to the fuel in spent fuel pools, the following actions may need to be taken in order to prevent severe deterministic health effects and reduce stochastic health effects: (1) precautionary protective actions and other response actions for those near the facility (i.e., within the zones identified by the International Atomic Energy Agency) taken immediately upon detection of facility conditions indicating possible severe damage to the fuel in the core or in the spent fuel pool; and (2) protective actions and other response actions taken based on environmental monitoring and sampling results following a release. This paper addresses the second item by providing default operational intervention levels [OILs, which are similar to the U.S. derived response levels (DRLs)] for promptly assessing radioactive material deposition, as well as skin, food, milk and drinking water contamination, following a major release of fission products from the core or spent fuel pool of a light water reactor (LWR) or a high power channel reactor (RBMK), based on the International Atomic Energy Agency's guidance.

A new perspective on human health risk assessment: development of a time dependent methodology and the effect of varying exposure durations

We present a new Time Dependent Risk Assessment (TDRA) that stochastically considers how joint uncertainty and inter-individual variability (JUV) associated with human health risk change as a function of time. In contrast to traditional, time independent assessments of risk, this new formulation relays information on when the risk occurs, how long the duration of risk is, and how risk changes with time. Because the true exposure duration (ED) is often uncertain in a risk assessment, we also investigate how varying the magnitude of fixed size durations (ranging between 5 and 70 years) of this parameter affects the distribution of risk in both the time independent and dependent methodologies. To illustrate this new formulation and to investigate these mechanisms for sensitivity, an example of arsenic contaminated groundwater is used in conjunction with two scenarios of different environmental concentration signals resulting from rate dependencies in geochemical reactions. Cancer risk is computed and compared using environmental concentration ensembles modeled with sorption as 1) a linear equilibrium assumption (LEA) and 2) first order kinetics (Kin). Results show that the information attained in the new time dependent methodology reveals how the uncertainty in other time-dependent processes in the risk assessment may influence the uncertainty in risk. We also show that individual susceptibility also affects how risk changes in time, information that would otherwise be lost in the traditional, time independent methodology. These results are especially pertinent for forecasting risk in time, and for risk managers who are assessing the uncertainty of risk.