Differential prognoses among male and female patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Conventional and machine learning-based risk scores for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups.

METHODS

The study retrospectively enrolled 1,411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-tomonocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATSINF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores.

CONCLUSION

Both the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.

Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Prognostic Factor for Very Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Field factors play more important roles in predicting the outcomes of patients compared with tumor factors in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the prognostic ability of noninvasive serum marker scores for hepatic fibrosis and liver functional reserve on very early-stage HCC is still not yet determined. We aimed to investigate the performance of these serum marker scores in predicting the prognoses of patients with very early-stage HCC.

METHODS

A total of 446 patients with very early-stage HCC from 2012 to 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. Serum biomarkers and prognostic scores determining overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model. We compared the Akaike information criterion among the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, EZ (easy)-ALBI score, modified ALBI score, fibrosis-4 score, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio to determine the predictability on the OS.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 41.0 months (interquartile range 36.9-45.1 months), 81 patients died, with a 5-year OS rate of 71.0%. Among the noninvasive serum marker scores, PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS with the lowest Akaike information criterion (846.407) compared with other scores. Moreover, we stratified the patients into high-risk (PNI <45) and low-risk (PNI ≥45) groups. It showed that the 5-year OS rates were 83.4% and 60.8% in the low-risk and high-risk PNI groups, respectively ( P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS for patients with very early-stage HCC.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B

BACKGROUND

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is widely used for assessing the liver's functional reserve in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims to explore the outcomes of patients with HCC and CTP class B and to investigate the prognostic accuracy of prediction models for ACLD in these patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 1143 patients with HCC and CTP class B between 2007 and 2022. We divided the patients into three subgroups based on their CTP scores: CTP-B7, CTP-B8, and CTP-B9. We compared the corrected Akaike information criterion among each mortality prediction model, including the CTP score, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, modified ALBI score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD 3.0.

RESULTS

Among the enrolled patients, 576 (50.3%) were in the CTP-B7 group, 363 (31.8%) were in the CTP-B8 group, and 204 (17.9%) were in the CTP-B9 group. After a median follow-up of 4.6 months (interquartile range IQR 1.8-17.2 months), 963 patients died, and the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 11.4%. The 5-year OS rates were 11.6%, 13.6%, and 8.3% in the CTP-B7, CTP-B8, and CTP-B9 groups, respectively. Patients in the CTP-B7 group and CTP-B8 group had comparable OS ( p = 0.089), both of which were better than those in the CTP-B9 group ( p < 0.001). Furthermore, the MELD 3.0 score had the lowest corrected akaike information criteria value and provided a more accurate mortality prediction than the MELD score, ALBI grade, modified ALBI grade, and CTP score.

CONCLUSION

Patients in the CTP-B7 and CTP-B8 groups had comparable OS, both of which were better than those in the CTP-B9 group. Moreover, MELD 3.0 provided the most accurate mortality prediction in patients with HCC and CTP class B.

Construction and validation of a SEER-based prognostic nomogram for young and middle-aged males patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common digestive tumor, and we aimed to develop and validate nomogram models, predicting the overall survival (OS) of young and middle-aged male patients with HCC.

METHODS

We extracted eligible data from relevant patients between 2000 and 2017 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. In addition, randomly divided all patients into two groups (training and validation = 7:3). The nomogram was established using effective risk factors based on univariate and multivariate analysis. The area under the time-dependent curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the effective performance of the nomogram. The risk stratifications of the nomogram and the AJCC criteria-based tumor stage were compared.

RESULTS

11 variables were selected by univariate and multivariate analysis to establish the nomogram of HCC. The AUC values of 3, 4, and 5 years of the time-ROC curve are 0.858, 0.862 and 0.859 for the training cohort, and 0.858, 0.877 and 0.869 for the validation cohort, respectively, indicating that the nomogram has a good ability of discrimination. The calibration plots showed favorable consistency between the prediction of the nomogram and actual observations in both the training and validation cohorts. In addition, the decision curve DCA showed that the nomogram was clinically useful and had better discriminative ability to recognize patients at high risk than the AJCC criteria-based tumor stage.

CONCLUSION

Prognostic nomogram of young and middle-aged male patients with HCC was developed and validated to help clinicians evaluate the prognosis of patients.

Entecavir versus tenofovir on prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma after curative hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

There is still controversy about whether tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and entecavir (ETV) have different effects on the outcomes of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

The aim of this study was to compare the prognoses between ETV and TDF treatment among patients with HBV-related HCC after hepatectomy.

METHODS

An analysis was done on data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry, which was linked to Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, for the years 2011-2016. We identified 7107 patients with HBV-related HCC after curative hepatectomy, and 25.3% of them used ETV or TDF after surgery. After propensity score overlap weighting, 1797 patients treated with ETV (n = 1365) or TDF (n = 432) were included for analyses. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the efficacy of ETV and TDF for recurrence and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

After hepatectomy, the recurrence rate per 100 person-years was 14.87 for the ETV group and 9.25 for the TDF group. The risk of recurrence was similar in the TDF group and the ETV group (HR [95% CI]: 0.91 [0.69-1.19; p = 0.479]), as was the risk of all-cause mortality (HR [95% CI]: 0.67 [0.42-1.07]; p = 0.091). When considering early recurrence (<2 years) and late recurrence (≧2 years), the TDF and ETV groups showed no significant differences. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses demonstrated consistent results.

CONCLUSION

Both TDF and ETV showed similar health benefits in terms of recurrence and OS in patients with HBV-related HCC patients after hepatectomy.

Combining HAIC and Sorafenib as a Salvage Treatment for Patients with Treatment-Failed or Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND

Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) has been proven to be an effective treatment for advanced HCC. In this study, we present our single-center experience of implementing combined sorafenib and HAIC treatment for these patients and compare the treatment benefit with that of sorafenib alone.

METHODS

This was a retrospective single-center study. Our study included 71 patients who started taking sorafenib between 2019 and 2020 at Changhua Christian Hospital in order to treat advanced HCC or as a salvage treatment after the failure of a previous treatment for HCC. Of these patients, 40 received combined HAIC and sorafenib treatment. The efficacy of sorafenib alone or in combination with HAIC was measured in regard to overall survival and progression-free survival. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with overall survival and progression-free survival.

RESULTS

HAIC combined with sorafenib treatment and sorafenib alone resulted in different outcomes. The combination treatment resulted in a better image response and objective response rate. Moreover, among the patients aged under 65 years old and male patients, the combination therapy resulted in a better progression-free survival than sorafenib alone. A tumor size ≥ 3 cm, AFP > 400, and ascites were associated with a poor progression-free survival among young patients. However, the overall survival of these two groups showed no significant difference.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined HAIC and sorafenib treatment showed a treatment effect equivalent to that of sorafenib alone as a salvage treatment modality used to treat patients with advanced HCC or with experience of a previously failed treatment.

Radiofrequency ablation versus stereotactic body radiation therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma: a meta-regression

Aim: The aim of this meta-regression was to assess the impact of mean/median age, mean/median tumor size, percentage of males in total sample, and total sample size on the comparative effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods: Ten studies reporting on the composite outcome of overall survival and local control were included. Results: A significant relationship was found between age and overall survival at 1 and 2 for both RFA and SBRT. A significant relationship was noted also between age and local control at 1 and 2 years for RFA. Conclusion: Patients treated with SBRT had a wider range of tumor sizes and larger tumor sizes; no relationship was observed between tumor size and overall survival or local control by SBRT.

Association of ESR1 gene polymorphisms with the susceptibility to Hepatitis B virus infection and the clinical outcomes

Estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) has been implicated in the pathological process of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and is probably an important determinant for gender differences. In this study, a total of 975 subjects including 368 healthy controls, 323 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with HBsAg positive, and 284 HBV-infected subjects without HCC were included. Three single nucleotide polymorphisms of ESR1 (rs2234693, rs2077647, rs2228480) were detected to investigate the correlation between ESR1 polymorphisms and the susceptibility to HBV persistence and the clinical outcomes. The association of ESR1 polymorphisms with HCC prognosis was investigated in our cohort enrolling 376 HBV-HCC patients. The frequency of rs2234693 C allele was lower in chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) and liver cirrhosis (LC) than that in HCC patients in the males (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.41-0.96). rs2228480 A allele was associated with increased risk of LC (AOR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.06-4.56) in HBV genotype C, and significantly decreased the risk of HCC recurrence (p = 0.010) and ESR1 mRNA level in tumor tissues (p = 0.032). Haplotype C-G-G was associated with significantly increased risk of HBV persistence (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.08-1.73), while it was opposite for C-A-G and T-G-G (OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.27-0.62; OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.32-0.85, respectively). These results imply that combinations of these ESR1 polymorphisms may be valuable for the prediction of HBV persistence.

To do one and to get more: Part II. Diabetes and metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver diseases

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) is characterized by inability of faulty pancreatic β-cells to secret a normal amount of insulin to maintain normal body consumption, and/or peripheral tissue has a decreased susceptibility to insulin, resulting in hyperglycemia and insulin resistance. Similar to other chronic systemic inflammatory diseases, DM is a result from dysregulated interactions between ethnic, genetic, epigenetic, immunoregulatory, hormonal, and environmental factors. Therefore, it is rational to suppose the concept as "To do one and to get more", while using antidiabetic agents (ADA), a main pharmacologic agent for the treatment of DM, can provide an extraglycemia effect on comorbidities or concomittent comorbidities to DM. In this review, based on the much strong correlation between DM and metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver diseases (MAFLD) shown by similar pathophysiological mechanisms and a high prevalence of DM in MAFLD and its vice versa (a high prevalence of MAFLD in DM), it is possible to use the strategy to target both diseases simultaneously. We focus on a new classification of ADA, such as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1R) agonist and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors to show the potential benefits of extraglycemic effect on MAFLD. We conclude that the management of DM patients, especially for those who need ADA as adjuvant therapy should include healthy lifestyle modification to overcome the metabolic syndrome, contributing to the urgent need of an effective weight-reduction strategy. GLP1R agonist is one of effective body weight-lowering medications, which may be a better choice for DM complicated with MAFLD or its-associated severe form as metabolic associated steatohepatitis (MASH), although the role of SGLT-2 inhibitors is also impressive. The prescription of these two classes of ADA may satisfy the concept "To do one and to get more", based on successful sugar-lowering effect for controlling DM and extraglycemia benefits of hepatoprotective activity in DM patients.

Mutational signatures representative transcriptomic perturbations in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a primary malignancy with increasing incidence and poor prognosis. Heterogeneity originating from genomic instability is one of the critical reasons of poor outcomes. However, the studies of underlying mechanisms and pathways affected by mutations are still not intelligible. Currently, integrative molecular-level studies using multiomics approaches enable comprehensive analysis for cancers, which is pivotal for personalized therapy and mortality reduction. In this study, genomic and transcriptomic data of HCC are obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) to investigate the affected coding and non-coding RNAs, as well as their regulatory network due to certain mutational signatures of HCC. Different types of RNAs have their specific enriched biological functions in mutational signature-specific HCCs, upregulated coding RNAs are predominantly associated with lipid metabolism-related pathways, and downregulated coding RNAs are enriched in axonogenesis for tumor microenvironment generation. Additionally, differentially expressed miRNAs are inclined to concentrate in cancer-related signaling pathways. Some of these RNAs also serve as prognostic factors that help predict the survival outcome of HCCs with certain mutational signatures. Furthermore, deregulation of competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) regulatory network is identified, which suggests a potential therapy via interference of miRNA activity for mutational signature-specific HCC. This study proposes a projection approach to reduce therapeutic complexity from genomic mutations to transcriptomic alterations. Through this method, we identify genes and pathways critical for mutational signature-specific HCC and further discover a series of prognostic markers indicating patient survival outcome.