Implementation and operational research: evaluating outcomes of patients lost to follow-up in a large comprehensive care treatment program in western Kenya

The effect of an interactive weekly text-messaging intervention on retention in prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV care: a randomised controlled trial (WelTel PMTCT)

Retention in prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) care is critical to prevent vertical HIV transmission and reduce morbidity and mortality of mother-infant pairs. We investigated whether weekly, interactive text-messaging improved 18-month postpartum retention in PMTCT care. This randomised, two-armed, parallel trial was conducted at six PMTCT clinics in western Kenya. Pregnant women with HIV at least 18 years of age with access to a mobile phone, able to text-message, or had somebody who could text on their behalf, were eligible. Participants were randomly assigned at a 1:1 ratio in block sizes of four to the intervention or control group. The intervention group received weekly text messages asking "How are you?" ("Mambo?" in Swahili) and were requested to respond within 48 h. Healthcare workers called women who indicated a problem or did not respond. The intervention was administered up to 24 months after delivery. Both groups received standard care. The primary outcome was retention in care at 18 months postpartum (i.e., clinic attendance 16-24 months after delivery based on data from patient files, patient registers and Kenya's National AIDS and STI Control Programme database), which was analysed by intention-to-treat. Researchers and data collectors were masked to group assignment, while healthcare workers were not. Between June 25th, 2015, and July 5th, 2016, we randomly assigned 299 women to the intervention and 301 to standard care only. Follow-up concluded on July 26th, 2019. The proportion of women retained in PMTCT care at 18 months postpartum was not significantly different between the intervention (n = 210/299) and control groups (n = 207/301) (risk ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.92-1.14, p = 0.697). No adverse events related to the mobile phone intervention were reported. Weekly, interactive text-messaging was not associated with improved retention in PMTCT care at 18 months postpartum or linkage to care up to 30 months postpartum in this setting. (ISRCTN No. 98818734).

Continuity of Care is Associated with Higher Appointment Adherence Among HIV Patients in Low Clinician-to-Patient Ratio Facilities in Western Kenya

We sought to determine the relationship between continuity of care and adherence to clinic appointments among patients receiving HIV care in high vs. low clinician-to-patient (C:P) ratios facilities in western Kenya. This retrospective analysis included 12,751 patients receiving HIV care from the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) program, between February 2016-2019. We used logistic regression analysis with generalized estimating equations to estimate the relationship between continuity of care (two consecutive visits with the same provider) and adherence to clinic appointments (within 7 days of a scheduled appointment) over time. Adjusting for covariates, patients in low C:P ratio facilities who had continuity of care, were more likely to be adherent to their appointments compared to those without continuity (adjusted odds ratio = 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-1.69). Continuity in HIV care may be a factor in clinical adherence among patients in low C:P ratio facilities and should therefore be promoted.

Exploring Estimates and Reasons for Lost to Follow-Up Among People Living With HIV on Antiretroviral Therapy in Kisumu County, Kenya

BACKGROUND

A better understanding why people living with HIV (PLHIV) become lost to follow-up (LTFU) and determining who is LTFU in a program setting is needed to attain HIV epidemic control.

SETTING

This retrospective cross-sectional study used an evidence-sampling approach to select health facilities and LTFU patients from a large HIV program supporting 61 health facilities in Kisumu County, Kenya.

METHODS

Eligible PLHIV included adults 18 years and older with at least 1 clinic visit between September 1, 2016, and August 31, 2018, and were LTFU (no clinical contact for ≥90 days after their last expected clinic visit). From March to June 2019, demographic and clinical variables were collected from a sample of LTFU patient files at 12 health facilities. Patient care status and retention outcomes were determined through program tracing.

RESULTS

Of 787 LTFU patients selected and traced, 36% were male, median age was 30.5 years (interquartile range: 24.6-38.0), and 78% had their vital status confirmed with 560 (92%) alive and 52 (8%) deceased. Among 499 (89.0%) with a retention outcome, 233 (46.7%) had stopped care while 266 (53.3%) had self-transferred to another facility. Among those who had stopped care, psychosocial reasons were most common {65.2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 58.9 to 71.1]} followed by structural reasons [29.6% (95% CI: 24.1 to 35.8)] and clinic-based reasons [3.0% (95% CI: 1.4 to 6.2)].

CONCLUSION

We found that more than half of patients LTFU were receiving HIV care elsewhere, leading to a higher overall patient retention rate than routinely reported. Similar strategies could be considered to improve the accuracy of reporting retention in HIV care.

"Who am I going to stay with? Who will accept me?": family-level domains influencing HIV care engagement among disengaged adolescents in Kenya

INTRODUCTION

Adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV, ages 10-19) have developmentally specific needs in care, and have lower retention compared to other age groups. Family-level contexts may be critical to adolescent HIV outcomes, but have often been overlooked. We investigated family-level factors underlying disengagement and supporting re-engagement among adolescents disengaged from HIV care.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were performed with 42 disengaged ALHIV, 32 of their caregivers and 28 healthcare workers (HCW) in the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) program in western Kenya, from 2018 to 2020. Disengaged ALHIV had ≥1 visit within the 18 months prior to data collection at one of two sites and nonattendance ≥60 days following their last scheduled appointment. HCW were recruited from 10 clinics. Transcripts were analysed through thematic analysis. A conceptual model for family-level domains influencing adolescent HIV care engagement was developed from these themes.

RESULTS

Family-level factors emerged as central to disengagement. ALHIV-particularly those orphaned by the loss of one or both parents-experienced challenges when new caregivers or unstable living situations limited support for HIV care. These challenges were compounded by anticipated stigma; resultant non-disclosure of HIV status to household members; enacted stigma in the household, with overwhelming effects on adolescents; or experiences of multiple forms of trauma, which undermined HIV care engagement. Some caregivers lacked finances or social support to facilitate care. Others did not feel equipped to support adolescent engagement or adherence. Regarding facilitators to re-engagement, participants described roles for household disclosure; and solidarity from caregivers, especially those also living with HIV. Family-level domains influencing HIV care engagement were conceptualized as follows: (1) adolescent living situation and contexts; (2) household material resources or poverty; (3) caregiver capacities and skills to support adolescent HIV care; and (4) HIV stigma or solidarity at the household level.

CONCLUSIONS

Family-level factors are integral to retention in care for ALHIV. The conceptual model developed in this study for family-level influences on care engagement may inform holistic approaches to promote healthy outcomes for ALHIV. Developmentally appropriate interventions targeting household relationships, disclosure, HIV stigma reduction, HIV care skills and resources, and economic empowerment may promote adolescent engagement in HIV care.

Global estimates of viral suppression in children and adolescents and adults on antiretroviral therapy adjusted for missing viral load measurements: a multiregional, retrospective cohort study in 31 countries

BACKGROUND

As countries move towards the UNAIDS's 95-95-95 targets and with strong evidence that undetectable equals untransmittable, it is increasingly important to assess whether those with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) achieve viral suppression. We estimated the proportions of children and adolescents and adults with viral suppression at 1, 2, and 3 years after initiating ART.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, seven regional cohorts from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium contributed data from individuals initiating ART between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019, at 148 sites in 31 countries with annual viral load monitoring. Only people with HIV who started ART after the time a site started routine viral load monitoring were included. Data up to March 31, 2020, were analysed. We estimated the proportions of children and adolescents (aged <18 years at ART initiation) and adults (aged ≥18 years at ART initiation) with viral suppression (viral load <1000 copies per mL) at 1, 2, and 3 years after ART initiation using an intention-to-treat approach and an adjusted approach that accounted for missing viral load measurements.

FINDINGS

21 594 children and adolescents (11 812 [55%] female, 9782 [45%] male) from 106 sites in 22 countries and 255 662 adults (163 831 [64%] female, 91 831 [36%] male) from 143 sites in 30 countries were included. Using the intention-to-treat approach, the proportion of children and adolescents with viral suppression was 7303 (36%) of 20 478 at 1 year, 5709 (30%) of 19 135 at 2 years, and 4287 (24%) of 17 589 at 3 years after ART initiation; the proportion of adults with viral suppression was 106 541 (44%) of 240 600 at 1 year, 79 141 (36%) of 220 925 at 2 years, and 57 970 (29%) of 201 124 at 3 years after ART initiation. After adjusting for missing viral load measurements among those who transferred, were lost to follow-up, or who were in follow-up without viral load testing, the proportion of children and adolescents with viral suppression was 12 048 (64% [plausible range 43-81]) of 18 835 at 1 year, 10 796 (62% [41-77]) of 17 553 at 2 years, and 9177 (59% [38-91]) of 15 667 at 3 years after ART initiation; the proportion of adults with viral suppression was 176 964 (79% [53-80]) of 225 418 at 1 year, 145 552 (72% [48-79]) of 201 238 at 2 years, and 115 260 (65% [43-69]) of 178 458 at 3 years after ART initiation.

INTERPRETATION

Although adults with HIV are approaching the global target of 95% viral suppression, progress among children and adolescents is much slower. Substantial efforts are still needed to reach the viral suppression target for children and adolescents.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

The effect of weekly interactive text-messaging on early infant HIV testing in Kenya: a randomised controlled trial (WelTel PMTCT)

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV remains a significant concern in Africa despite earlier progress. Early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV is crucial to reduce mortality among infected infants through early treatment initiation. However, a large proportion of HIV-exposed infants are still not tested in Kenya. Our objective was to investigate whether weekly interactive text-messages improved prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV care outcomes including EID HIV testing. This multicentre, parallel-group, randomised, open-label trial included six antenatal care clinics across western Kenya. Pregnant women living with HIV, aged 18 years or older, with mobile phone access, were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to weekly text messages that continued until 24 months postpartum, asking “How are you?” (“Mambo?”) to which they were asked to respond within 48 h, or a control group. Healthcare workers contacted participants reporting problems and non-responders by phone. Participants in both groups received routine PMTCT care. The prespecified secondary outcome reported in this paper is EID HIV testing by eight weeks of age (blinded outcome assessment). Final 24-months trial results will be published separately. We estimated risk ratios using Poisson regression with robust standard errors. Between June 2015–July 2016, we screened 735 pregnant women, of whom 600 were enrolled: 299 were allocated to the intervention and 301 to the control group. By eight weeks of age, the uptake of EID HIV testing out of recorded live births was 85.5% in the intervention and 84.7% in the control group (71.2% vs. 71.8% of participants randomised, including miscarriages, stillbirths, etc.). The intention-to-treat risk ratio was 0.99; 95% CI: 0.90–1.10; p = 0.89. The proportion of infants diagnosed with HIV was 0.8% in the intervention and 1.2% in the control group. No adverse events were reported. We found no evidence to support that the WelTel intervention improved EID HIV testing. A higher uptake of EID testing than expected in both groups may be a result of lower barriers to EID testing and improved PMTCT care in western Kenya, including the broader standard use of mobile phone communication between healthcare workers and patients. (ISRCTN No. 98818734. Funded by the European-Developing Countries Clinical Trial Partnership and others).

Microfinance, retention in care, and mortality among patients enrolled in HIV care in East Africa

OBJECTIVE

To measure associations between participation in community-based microfinance groups, retention in HIV care, and death among people with HIV (PWH) in low-resource settings.

DESIGN AND METHODS

We prospectively analyzed data from 3609 patients enrolled in an HIV care program in western Kenya. HIV patients who were eligible and chose to participate in a Group Integrated Savings for Health Empowerment (GISHE) microfinance group were matched 1 : 2 on age, sex, year of enrollment in HIV care, and location of initial HIV clinic visit to patients not participating in GISHE. Follow-up data were abstracted from medical records from January 2018 through February 2020. Logistic regression analysis examined associations between GISHE participation and two outcomes: retention in HIV care (i.e. >1 HIV care visit attended within 6 months prior to the end of follow-up) and death. Socioeconomic factors associated with HIV outcomes were included in adjusted models.

RESULTS

The study population was majority women (78.3%) with a median age of 37.4 years. Microfinance group participants were more likely to be retained in care relative to HIV patients not participating in a microfinance group [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.71; P = 0.046]. Participation in group microfinance was associated with a reduced odds of death during the follow-up period (aOR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.28-1.09; P = 0.105).

CONCLUSION

Participation in group-based microfinance appears to be associated with better HIV treatment outcomes. A randomized trial is needed to assess whether microfinance groups can improve clinical and socioeconomic outcomes among PWH in similar settings.

Temporal trends in pre-ART patient characteristics and outcomes before the test and treat era in Central Kenya

BACKGROUND

Retention of patients who did not initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been persistently low compared to those who initiated ART. Understanding the temporal trends in clinical outcomes prior to ART initiation may inform interventions targeting patients who do not initiate ART immediately after diagnosis.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort analysis of known HIV-infected patients who did not initiate ART from healthcare facilities in Central Kenya was done to investigate temporal trends in characteristics, retention, and mortality outcomes. The data were sourced from the Comprehensive Care Clinic Patient Application Database (CPAD) and IQ care electronic patient-level databases for those enrolled between 2004 and 2014.

RESULTS

A total of 13,779 HIV-infected patients were assessed, of whom 30.7% were men.There were statisitically significant differences in temporal trends relating to marital status, WHO clinical stage, and tuberculosis (TB) status from 2004 to 2014. The proportion of widowed patients decreased from 9.1 to 6.0%. By WHO clinical stage at enrollment in program, those in WHO stage I increased over time from 8.7 to 43.1%, while those in WHO stage III and IV reduced from 28.5 to 10.8% and 4.0 to 1.1% respectively. Those on TB treatment during their last known visit reduced from 8.3 to 3.9% while those with no TB signs increased from 58.5 to 86.8%. Trends in 6 and 12 month retention in the program, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality were statistically significant. At 6 months, program retention ranged between 36.0% in 2004 to a high of 54.1% in 2013. LTFU at 6 months remained around 50.0% for most of the cohorts, while mortality at 6 months was 7.5% in 2004 but reduced to 3.8% in 2014. At 12 months, LTFU was above 50.0% across all the cohorts while mortality rate reached 3.9% in 2014.

CONCLUSION

Trends in pre ART enrollment suggested higher enrollment among patients who were women and at earlier WHO clinical stages. Retention and mortality outcomes at 6 and 12 months generally improved over the 11 year follow-up period, though dipped as enrollment in asymptomatic disease stage increased.

Integrated community-based HIV and non-communicable disease care within microfinance groups in Kenya: study protocol for the Harambee cluster randomised trial

INTRODUCTION

In Kenya, distance to health facilities, inefficient vertical care delivery and limited financial means are barriers to retention in HIV care. Furthermore, the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among people living with HIV complicates chronic disease treatment and strains traditional care delivery models. Potential strategies for improving HIV/NCD treatment outcomes are differentiated care, community-based care and microfinance (MF).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will use a cluster randomised trial to evaluate integrated community-based (ICB) care incorporated into MF groups in medium and high HIV prevalence areas in western Kenya. We will conduct baseline assessments with n=900 HIV positive members of 40 existing MF groups. Group clusters will be randomised to receive either (1) ICB or (2) standard of care (SOC). The ICB intervention will include: (1) clinical care visits during MF group meetings inclusive of medical consultations, NCD management, distribution of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and NCD medications, and point-of-care laboratory testing; (2) peer support for ART adherence and (3) facility referrals as needed. MF groups randomised to SOC will receive regularly scheduled care at a health facility. Findings from the two trial arms will be compared with follow-up data from n=300 matched controls. The primary outcome will be VS at 18 months. Secondary outcomes will be retention in care, absolute mean change in systolic blood pressure and absolute mean change in HbA1c level at 18 months. We will use mediation analysis to evaluate mechanisms through which MF and ICB care impact outcomes and analyse incremental cost-effectiveness of the intervention in terms of cost per HIV suppressed person-time, cost per patient retained in care and cost per disability-adjusted life-year saved.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Moi University Institutional Research and Ethics Committee approved this study (IREC#0003054). We will share data via the Brown University Digital Repository and disseminate findings via publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04417127.

Tracing people living with HIV who are lost to follow-up at ART programs in Southern Africa: A sampling-based cohort study in six countries

BACKGROUND

Attrition threatens the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). In this cohort study, we examined outcomes of people living with HIV (PLHIV) lost to follow-up (LTFU) 2014-2017 at ART programs in Southern Africa.

METHODS

We confirmed LTFU (missed appointment for ≥60 or ≥90 days, according to local guidelines) by checking medical records and used a standardized protocol to trace a weighted random sample of PLHIV who were LTFU in eight ART programs in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, 2017-2019. We ascertained vital status and identified predictors of mortality using logistic regression, adjusted for sex, age, time on ART, time since LTFU, travel time, and urban or rural setting.

RESULTS

Among 3,256 PLHIV, 385 (12%) were wrongly categorized as LTFU and 577 (17%) had missing contact details. We traced 2,294 PLHIV (71%) by phone calls, home visits or both: 768 (34% of 2,294) were alive and in care, including 385 (17%) silent transfers to another clinic; 528 (23%) were alive without care or unknown care; 252 (11%) had died. Overall, the status of 1,323 (41% of 3,256) PLHIV remained unknown. Mortality was higher in men than women, higher in children than in young people or adults, higher in PLHIV who had been on ART <1 year or lost >1 year, living further from the clinic or in rural areas. Results were heterogeneous across sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the urgent need for better medical record systems at HIV clinics and rapid tracing of PLHIV who are LTFU.

Challenges with tracing patients on antiretroviral therapy who are late for clinic appointments in rural South Africa and recommendations for future practice

Background: It is common practice for HIV programmes to routinely trace patients who are late for a scheduled clinic visit to ensure continued care engagement. In South Africa, patients who are late for a scheduled visit are identified from clinic registers, and called by telephone up to three times by designated clinic staff, with home visits conducted for those who are unreachable by phone. It is important to understand outcomes among late patients in order to have accurate mortality data, identify defaulters to attempt to re-engage them into care, and have accurate estimates of patients still in care for planning purposes.

Objective: We conducted a study to assess whether tracing of HIV patients in clinics in rural north-eastern South Africa was implemented in line with national policies.

Methods: Thirty-three person-day of observations took place during multiple visits to eight facilities between October 2017 and January 2018 during which clinic tracing processes were captured. The facility level implementation processes were compared to the intended tracing process and gaps and challenges were identified.

Results: Challenges to implementing effective tracing procedures fell into three broad categories: i) facility-level barriers, ii) issues relating to data, documentation and record-keeping, and iii) challenges relating to the roles and responsibilities of the different actors in the tracing cascade.

We recommend improving linkages between clinics, improving record-keeping systems, and regular training of community health workers involved in tracing activities. Improved links between clinics would reduce the chance of patients being lost between clinics. Record-keeping systems could be improved through motivating health workers to take ownership of their data and training them on the importance of complete data. Finally, training of community health workers may improve sustained motivation, and improve their ability to respond appropriately to their clients’ needs.

Conclusions: Substantial investment in data infrastructure and healthcare staff training is needed to improve routine tracing.

Re-engagement in care of people living with HIV lost to follow-up after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Mali: Who returns to care?

Objectives

We assessed cumulative incidence rates of and factors associated with re-engagement in HIV care for PLHIV lost to follow-up in Mali.

Methods

HIV-1-infected individuals lost to follow-up before 31/12/2013, ≥ 18 years old, who started ART from 2006 to 2012 at one of 16 care centres were considered. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as an interruption of ≥ 6 months during follow-up. The re-engagement in care in PLHIV lost to follow-up before 31/12/2013 was defined as having at least one clinical visit after LTFU. The cumulative incidence rates of re-engagement in care was estimated by Kaplan-Meier and its predictive factors were assessed using Cox models. Socio-demographic characteristics, clinical and immune status, period, region, centre expertise level, and distance from home at the start of ART plus a combined variable of duration of ART until LTFU and 12-month change in CD4 count were assessed. Multiple imputation was used to deal with missing data.

Results

We included 3,650 PLHIV lost to follow-up before December 2013, starting ART in nine outpatient clinics and seven hospitals (5+2 in Bamako and 4+5 in other regions): 35% male, median (IQR) age 35 (29–43), and duration of ART until LTFU 11 months (5–22). Among these PLHIV, 1,975 (54%) were definitively LTFU and 1,675 (46%) subsequently returned to care. The cumulative incidence rates of re-engagement in care rose from 39.0% at one year to 47.0% at three years after LTFU. Predictors of re-engagement in care were starting ART with WHO stage 1–2 and CD4 counts ≥ 200 cells/μL, being treated for ≥ 12 months with CD4 count gain ≥ 50 cells/μL, or being followed in Bamako. People followed at regional hospitals or outpatient clinics ≥ 5 km away, or being treated for ≥ 12 months with CD4 count gain < 50 cells/μL were less likely to return to care.

Conclusions

Starting ART with a higher CD4 count, better gain in CD4 count, and being followed either in Bamako or close to home in the regions were associated with re-engagement in care.

Determinants of loss to follow-up among HIV positive patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in a test and treat setting: A retrospective cohort study in Masaka, Uganda

Background

Retaining patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) and ensuring good adherence remain cornerstone of long-term viral suppression. In this era of test and treat (T&T) policy, ensuring that patients starting ART remain connected to HIV clinics is key to achieve the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. Currently, limited studies have evaluated the effect of early ART initiation on loss to follow up in a routine health care delivery setting. We studied the cumulative incidence, incidence rate of loss to follow up (LTFU), and factors associated with LTFU in a primary healthcare clinic that has practiced T&T since 2012.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed extracted routine program data on patients who started ART from January 2012 to 4^th July 2016. We defined LTFU as failure of a patient to return to the HIV clinic for at least 90 days from the date of their last appointment. We calculated cumulative incidence, incidence rate and fitted a multivariable Cox proportion hazards regression model to determine factors associated with LTFU.

Results

Of the 7,553 patients included in our sample, 3,231 (42.8%) started ART within seven days following HIV diagnosis. There were 1,180 cases of LTFU observed over 15,807.7 person years at risk. The overall incidence rate (IR) of LTFU was 7.5 (95% CI, 7.1–7.9) per 100 person years of observation (pyo). Cumulative incidence of LTFU increased with duration of follow up from 8.9% (95% CI, 8.2–9.6%) at 6 months to 20.2% (95% CI, 19.0–21.4%) at 48 months. Predictors of elevated risk of LTFU were: starting ART within 7 days following HIV diagnosis ((aHR) = 1.69, 95% CI, 1.50–1.91), lack of a telephone set (aHR = 1.52, 95% CI, 1.35–1.71), CD4 cell count of 200–350μ/ml (aHR = 1.21, 95% CI, 1.01–1.45) and baseline WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 (aHR = 1.35, 95% CI, 1.10–1.65). Factors associated with a reduced risk of LTFU were: baseline age ≥25 years (aHR ranging from 0.62, 95% CI, 0.47–0.81 for age group 25–29 years to 0.24, 95% CI, 0.13–0.44 for age group ≥50 years), at least primary education level (aHR ranging from aHR = 0.77, 95% CI, 0.62–0.94 for primary education level to 0.50, 95% CI, 0.34–0.75 for post-secondary education level), and having a BMI ≥ 30 (aHR = 0.28, 95% CI, 0.15–0.51).

Conclusion

The risk of loss to follow up increased with time and was higher among patients who started ART within seven days following HIV diagnosis, higher among patients without a telephone set, lower among patients aged ≥ 25 years, lower among patients with at least primary education and lower among patients with BMI of ≥ 30. In this era of T&T, it will be important for HIV programs to initiate and continue enhanced therapeutic education programs that target high risk groups, as well as leveraging on mHealth to improve patients’ retention on ART throughout the cascade of care.

Measuring retention in HIV care: the impact of data sources and definitions using routine data

OBJECTIVES

Measuring retention is critical for antiretroviral therapy (ART) management and program monitoring; however, many definitions and data sources, usually from single health facilities, are used. We used routine electronic data, linked across facilities, to examine the impact of definitions and data sources on retention estimates among women in Cape Town, South Africa.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

We compiled routine electronic laboratory, pharmacy and clinic visit data for 617 women who started ART during pregnancy (2013-2014) and estimated 24-month retention using different definitions and data sources. We used logistic regression to assess consistency of associations between risk factors and retention, and receiver operating characteristics analyses to describe how different retention estimates predict viremia at 12 months on ART.

RESULTS

Using all available data sources, retention ranged from 41% (no gap >180 days) to 72% (100% 12-month visit constancy). Laboratory data (expected infrequently) underestimated retention compared with clinic visit data that identified more than 80% of women considered retained in all definitions. In all estimates, associations with known risk factors for nonretention remained consistent and retention declined over time: 77, 65 and 58% retained using all data sources in months 6-12, 12-18 and 18-24, respectively (P < 0.001). The 180-day gap definition was most strongly associated with viremia (odds ratio 24.3 95% confidence interval 12.0-48.9, all data sources).

CONCLUSION

Researchers must carefully consider the most appropriate retention definition and data source depending on available data. Presenting more than one approach may be warranted to obtain estimates that are context-appropriate and comparable across settings.

Outcomes and factors affecting mortality and successful tracing among patients lost to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy in Pawi Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a major public health problem to antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa. Failure to account for patients' LTFU outcomes (self-transfers and restarts) can result in inaccurate reporting of retention in care. In Ethiopia, specifically in the Benishangule Gumuz region, high LTFU reported patients, who were not assessed for their outcomes, are identified as a gap. Therefore, our objective was to determine the outcomes (alive or dead) of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) from ART and identify factors associated with successful tracing and mortality of these patients.

Results

The proportion of successful tracing was 75.5% (249 of 330). Among the traced patients (n = 249), 22.9% were deceased, 47.8% were on ART, and 29.3% had discontinued treatment. However, the remaining untraceable patients were not locatable due to wrong addresses (53.1%), change of residence (29.6%), and/or lack of functional phone contact (17.3%). Some (32.9%) of the patients discontinued because of negative test results, others (21.9%) for spiritual reasons or side effects (28.8%), and the remaining (16.4%) for other reasons. Tracing using phone numbers (AOR = 2.97, 95% CI 1.57-5.59) and existing long-term follow-up period for ART (AOR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.17-3.88) were strong predictors of successful tracing while not receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) (AOR = 2.59, 95% CI 1.22-5.39) is a predictor for mortality of patients post-LTFU.

Conclusion

ART programs need to retain current contact information of patients or guardians/friends for tracing. Having phone contact numbers and prolonged lengths of compliance with ART are predictors of successful tracing, while lack of cotrimoxazole preventive therapy is a predictor of mortality. Early tracing of beginners (newly admitted recipients) and updating their detailed information at each follow-up visit is essential.

Outcomes of Patients Lost to Follow-up in African Antiretroviral Therapy Programs: Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

Background

Low retention on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has emerged as a threat to the Joint United Nations Programme on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets. We examined outcomes of patients who started cART but were subsequently lost to follow-up (LTFU) in African treatment programs.

Methods

This was a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of studies that traced patients who were LTFU. Outcomes were analyzed using cumulative incidence functions and proportional hazards models for the competing risks of (i) death, (ii) alive but stopped cART, (iii) silent transfer to other clinics, and (iv) retention on cART.

Results

Nine studies contributed data on 7377 patients who started cART and were subsequently LTFU in sub-Saharan Africa. The median CD4 count at the start of cART was 129 cells/μL. At 4 years after the last clinic visit, 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.8%-22.7%) were known to have died, 22.6% (95% CI, 21.6%-23.6%) were alive but had stopped cART, 14.8% (95% CI, 14.0%-15.6%) had transferred to another clinic, 9.2% (95% CI, 8.5%-9.8%) were retained on cART, and 31.6% (95% CI, 30.6%-32.7%) could not been found. Mortality was associated with male sex, more advanced disease, and shorter cART duration; stopping cART with less advanced disease andlonger cART duration; and silent transfer with female sex and less advanced disease.

Conclusions

Mortality in patients LTFU must be considered for unbiased assessments of program outcomes and UNAIDS targets in sub-Saharan Africa. Immediate start of cART and early tracing of patients LTFU should be priorities.

Accurate dried blood spots collection in the community using non-medically trained personnel could support scaling up routine viral load testing in resource limited settings

Regular plasma HIV-RNA testing for persons living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is now the global standard, but as many as 60% of persons in Africa today on ART do not have access to standard laboratory HIV-RNA assays. As a result, patients in Zambia often receive treatment without any means of determining true virologic failure, which poses a risk of premature switch of ART regimens and widespread HIV drug resistance. Dry blood spots (DBS) on the other hand require unskilled personnel and less complex storage supply chain so are ideal to capture viral-load results from HIV patients outside clinic settings. We assess collection of DBS in the community using non-medically trained personnel (NMP) and documented challenges. We trained 23 NMP to collect DBS from lost to follow-up (LTFU) patients in 4 rural and urban Zambian districts. We developed a phlebotomy box to transport DBS without contamination at ambient temperature and concomitant training and standard operating procedures. We evaluated this through field observations, bi-weekly meetings, reports, and staff meetings. The laboratory assessed DBS quality for testing validity. We attempted to collect DBS from 357 participants in the community. Though individual reasons for refusal from the remaining 37% were not collected, NMPs reported privacy concerns, awkward box-size which drew attention in the community and fears of undisclosed uses of samples related to witchcraft and circulating narratives about past research. Successful DBS collection was not associated with patient gender, age, time on ART, enrolment CD4, facility. DBS viral-load collection by NMP is feasible in Zambia. Our training approach and assessments of NMP not part of the health system can be extended to patients by giving them more responsibility to manage their own differentiated care groups. Concerted efforts that compare collection of DBS by NMP to those collected by skilled-medical personnel are needed.

Point of Diagnosis and Patient Retention in HIV Care in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Home-based counseling and testing (HBCT) achieves earlier HIV diagnosis than other testing modalities; however, retention in care for these healthier patients is unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the association between point of HIV testing and retention in care and mortality.

SETTING

Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) has provided HIV care in western Kenya since 2001.

METHODS

AMPATH initiated HBCT in 2007. This retrospective analysis included individuals 13 years and older, enrolled in care between January 2008 and September 2016, with data on point of testing. Discrete-time multistate models were used to estimate the probability of transition between the following states: engaged, disengaged, transfer, and death, and the association between point of diagnosis and transition probabilities.

RESULTS

Among 77,358 patients, 67% women, median age: 35 years and median baseline CD4: 248 cells/mm. Adjusted results demonstrated that patients from HBCT were less likely to disengage [relative risk ratio (RRR) = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.91] and die (RRR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.75), whereas those diagnosed through provider-initiated counseling and testing were more likely to disengage (RRR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.12) and die (RRR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.20), compared with patients from voluntary counseling and testing. Once disengaged, patients from HBCT were less likely to remain disengaged, compared with patients from voluntary counseling and testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients entering care from different HIV-testing programs demonstrate differences in retention in HIV care over time beyond disease severity. Additional research is needed to understand the patient and system level factors that may explain the associations between testing program, retention, and mortality.

Population-based estimates of engagement in HIV care and mortality using double-sampling methods following home-based counseling and testing in western Kenya

Introduction

Data on engagement in HIV care from population-based samples in sub-Saharan Africa are limited. The objective of this study was to use double-sampling methods to estimate linkage to HIV care, ART initiation, and mortality among all adults diagnosed with HIV by a comprehensive home-based counseling and testing (HBCT) program in western Kenya.

Methods

HBCT was conducted door-to-door from December 2009 to April 2011 in three sub-counties of western Kenya by AMPATH (Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare). For those identified as HIV-positive, data were merged with electronic medical records to determine engagement with HIV care. A randomly-drawn follow-up sample of 120 adults identified via HBCT who had not linked to care as of June 2015 in Bunyala sub-county were visited by trained fieldworkers to ascertain HIV care engagement and vital status. Double-sampled data were used to generate, via multinomial regression, predicted probabilities of engagement in care and mortality among those whose status could not be ascertained by matching with the electronic medical records in the three catchments.

Results

Incorporating information from the double-sampling yielded estimates of prospective linkage to HIV care that ranged from 40–45%. Mortality estimates of those who did not engage in care following HBCT ranged from 12–16%. Among those who linked to care following HBCT, between 72–81% initiated ART.

Discussion

In settings without universal national identifiers, rates of linkage to care from community-based programs may be subject to substantial underestimation. Follow-up samples of those with missing information can be used to partially correct this bias, as has been demonstrated previously for mortality among those who were lost-to-care programs. There is a need for harmonized data systems across health systems and programs.

Status of HIV-infected patients classified as lost to follow up from a large antiretroviral program in southwest Nigeria

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a term used to classify patients no longer being seen in a clinical care program, including HIV treatment programs. It is unclear if these patients have transferred their care services elsewhere, died, or if there are other reasons for their LTFU. To better understand the status of patients meeting the criteria of LTFU, we traced a sample of HIV-infected patients that were LTFU from the Lagos University Teaching Hospital (LUTH) antiretroviral program.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study of HIV-infected adult patients who enrolled for care between 2010 and 2014 at LUTH and were considered LTFU. Patients with locator information were traced using phone calls. Face-to-face interviews were used to collect data from successfully traced and consenting participants. Predictors of LTFU from LUTH, disengagement from care and willingness to re-engage in care in LUTH were assessed.

Results

Of 6108 registered patients, 3397 (56%) were LTFU and being unmarried was a predictor of being LTFU from LUTH. Of 425 patients that were traced, 355 (84%) were alive and 70 (16%) were dead. Two hundred and sixty-eight patients consented to interviews; 96 (35.8%) of these had transferred to another clinic for care while 172 (64.2%) were disengaged from care. More than half (149/268; 55.6%) were not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Some of the primary reasons for LTFU were; long distance to clinic (56%) and feeling healthy (6.7%). Predictor of disengagement from care within the interviewed cohort was not having started ART. The predictors of willingness to re-engage in care included, not having started ART, male sex and longer duration in HIV care prior to LTFU.

Conclusion

Most of the interviewed cohort that was LTFU were truly disengaged from care and not on ART. Interventions are required to address processes of re-engagement of patients that are LTFU.

Identifying and Reengaging Patients Lost to Follow-Up in Rural Africa: The "Horizontal" Hospital-Based Approach in Uganda

Between 30% and 60% of hospital outpatient clinic patients were lost to follow-up. A defaulter-tracking service using performance-based remuneration for outreach workers, cutting across different clinical services, improved patient retention overall but varied by disease, with the poorest outcomes among patients with HIV.

Among the many challenges facing health systems grappling with the explosive growth of chronic disease in Africa are continuity of care, particularly in poor, rural areas. We report the strategy, field experience, and results of an ongoing 6-year follow-up program operating in a rural district hospital in Kisoro, Uganda, that attempts to locate and reengage patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) from communities that are largely without phones, addresses, or paved roads. The program works with diverse hospital clinics, including chronic diseases, HIV, tuberculosis (TB), nutrition, and women's health, to identify patients who have not returned to care, employing a modest staff who spend about 20 days monthly making outreach visits by motorcycle in search of approximately 130 patients. We describe the organization of this unique “horizontal” program and report on follow-up outcomes between November 2015 to October 2016. Between 30% and 60% of patients were found to have lapses in care. The follow-up program was able to locate 64% of patients, with a reengagement rate of 54% to 92% (average, 69%) depending on the clinic. The program costs approximately US$5 per patient LTFU but about US$40 per patient maintained in care. The hospital-based follow-up program that cuts across diverse clinics and wards was novel and feasible in this rural sub-Saharan African setting.

Understanding reasons for discontinued antiretroviral treatment among clients in test and treat: a qualitative study in Swaziland

INTRODUCTION

Retention on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical for the successful adoption of the test and treat policy by sub-Saharan African countries, and for realizing the United Nations programme on HIV and AIDS target of 90-90-90. This qualitative study explores HIV positive clients' reasons for discontinuing ART under the MaxART test and treat implementation study in Swaziland.

METHODS

Clients identified as lost to follow-up (LTFU) in the programme database, who had initiated ART under the intervention arm of the MaxART study, were purposively selected from two facilities. LTFU was defined as stopping ART refill for three months or longer from the date of last appointment, and not being classified as transferred out or deceased. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with nine clients and one treatment supporter between July and August 2017. All interviews were conducted in the local language, audio-recorded, summarized or transcribed and translated to English for thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Respondents described mobility as the first step in a chain of events that affected retention in care. It was entwined with precarious employment, care delivery, interactions with health workers, lack of social support, anticipated stigma and ART-related side-effects, including the exacerbation of hunger. The chains of events involved several intersecting reasons that occurred one after the other as a series of contiguous and linked events that led to clients' eventual discontinuation of ART. The individual accounts of step-by-step decision-making revealed the influence of multi-layered contexts and the importance of critical life-events.

CONCLUSIONS

Clients' reasons for abandoning ART are a complex, inextricably interwoven chain of events rather than a single occurrence. Mobility is often the first step in the process and commonly results from precarious economic and social circumstances. Currently the health system poorly caters to the reality of people's mobile lives. Interventions should seek to increase healthcare workers' understanding of the chain of events leading up to discontinuation on ART and the social dilemmas that clients face.

A review of strategies used to retain participants in clinical research during an infectious disease outbreak: The PREVAIL I Ebola vaccine trial experience

Introduction

This article describes a retrospective review of participant follow-up and retention strategies in the Partnership for Research on the Ebola Virus in Liberia (PREVAIL) I Vaccine Trial. It illustrates and analyzes strategies used to retain participants in an emergency clinical research response vaccine trial conducted during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia.

Methods

An anecdotal review of participant retention strategies developed and employed during the PREVAIL I vaccine trial.

Results

Though other factors likely contributed to the high retention rate of trial participants, the unique PREVAIL I follow-up process described resulted in an exceptionally high participant retention rate (97.8%) through 12 months of follow-up, increased the ability to obtain meaningful trial results, and provided a platform through which to respond to social issues in an emergency clinical research response setting.

Conclusion

Successful strategies were developed and employed in the PREVAIL I vaccine trial that resulted in extraordinarily high participant retention and follow-up rates during an infectious disease outbreak. This review illustrates that employing host country social mobilization concepts within a modified clinical research management framework is highly correlated to elevated rates of retention and minimal loss to follow-up. These strategies also contributed to increased data quality and enhanced adherence to protocol requirements. The increased ability to respond to social issues such as stigma, job retention and relationship conflicts was an additional and significant benefit of this follow-up methodology.

Optimal timing of HIV home-based counselling and testing rounds in Western Kenya

INTRODUCTION

Weaknesses in care programmes providing anti-retroviral therapy (ART) persist and are often instigated by late HIV diagnosis and poor linkage to care. We investigated the potential for a home-based counselling and testing (HBCT) campaign to be improved through the optimal timing and enhancement of testing rounds to generate greater health outcomes at minimum cost.

METHODS

Using a mathematical model of HIV care calibrated to longitudinal data from The Academic Model Providing Access To Healthcare (AMPATH) in Kenya, we simulated HBCT campaigns between 2016 and 2036, assessing the impact and total cost of care for each, for a further 20 years.

RESULTS

We find that simulating five equally spaced rounds averts 1.53 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) at a cost of $1617 million. By altering the timing of HBCT rounds, a four-round campaign can produce greater impact for lower cost. With "front-loaded" rounds, the cost per DALY averted is reduced by 12% as fewer rounds are required ($937 vs. $1060). Furthermore, improvements to HBCT coverage and linkage to care avert over two million DALYs at a cost per DALY averted of $621 (41% less than the reference scenario).

CONCLUSIONS

Countries implementing HBCT can reduce costs by optimally timing rounds and generate greater health outcomes through improving linkage, coverage, and retention. Tailoring HBCT campaigns to individual settings can enhance patient outcomes for minimal cost.

High risk of loss to follow-up among South African children on ART during transfer, a retrospective cohort analysis with community tracing

Introduction: Decentralization of HIV care for children has been recommended to improve paediatric outcomes by making antiretroviral treatment (ART) more accessible. We documented outcomes of children transferred after initiating ART at a large tertiary hospital in the Eastern Cape of South Africa.

Methods: Electronic medical records for all children 0–15 years initiating ART at Dora Nginza Hospital (DNH) in Port Elizabeth, South Africa January 2004 to September 2015 were examined. Records for children transferred to primary and community clinics were searched at 16 health facilities to identify children with successful (at least one recorded visit) and unsuccessful transfer (no visits). We identified all children lost to follow-up (LTF) after ART initiation: those LTF at DNH (no visit >6 months), children with unsuccessful transfer, and children LTF after successful transfer (no visit >6 months). Community tracing was conducted to locate caregivers of children LTF and electronic laboratory data were searched to measure reengagement in care, including silent transfers.

Results: 1,582 children initiated ART at median age of 4 years [interquartile range (IQR): 1–8] and median CD4+ of 278 cells/mm³ [IQR: 119–526]. A total of 901 (57.0%) children were transferred, 644 (71.5%) to study facilities; 433 (67.2%) children had successful transfer and 211 (32.8%) had unsuccessful transfer. In total, 399 children were LTF: 105 (26.3%) from DNH, 211 (52.9%) through unsuccessful transfer and 83 (20.8%) following successful transfer. Community tracing was conducted for 120 (30.1%) of 399 children LTF and 66 (55.0%) caregivers were located and interviewed. Four children had died. Among 62 children still alive, 8 (12.9%) were reported to not be in care or taking ART and 18 (29.0%) were also not taking ART. Overall, 65 (16.3%) of 399 children LTF had a laboratory result within 18 months of their last visit indicating silent transfer and 112 (28.1%) had lab results from 2015 to 2016 indicating current care.

Conclusion: We found that only two-thirds of children on ART transferred to primary and community health clinics had successful transfer. These findings suggest that transfer is a particularly vulnerable step in the paediatric HIV care cascade.

Observational Study of the Effect of Patient Outreach on Return to Care: The Earlier the Better

BACKGROUND

The burden of HIV remains heaviest in resource-limited settings, where problems of losses to care, silent transfers, gaps in care, and incomplete mortality ascertainment have been recognized.

METHODS

Patients in care at Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) clinics from 2001-2011 were included in this retrospective observational study. Patients missing an appointment were traced by trained staff; those found alive were counseled to return to care (RTC). Relative hazards of RTC were estimated among those having a true gap: missing a clinic appointment and confirmed as neither dead nor receiving care elsewhere. Sample-based multiple imputation accounted for missing vital status.

RESULTS

Among 34,522 patients lost to clinic, 15,331 (44.4%) had a true gap per outreach, 2754 (8.0%) were deceased, and 837 (2.4%) had documented transfers. Of 15,600 (45.2%) remaining without active ascertainment, 8762 (56.2%) with later RTC were assumed to have a true gap. Adjusted cause-specific hazard ratios (aHRs) showed early outreach (a ≤8-day window, defined by grid-search approach) had twice the hazard for RTC vs. those without (aHR = 2.06; P < 0.001). HRs for RTC were lower the later the outreach effort after disengagement (aHR = 0.86 per unit increase in time; P < 0.001). Older age, female sex (vs. male), antiretroviral therapy use (vs. none), and HIV status disclosure (vs. none) were also associated with greater likelihood of RTC, and higher enrollment CD4 count with lower likelihood of RTC.

CONCLUSION

Patient outreach efforts have a positive impact on patient RTC, regardless of when undertaken, but particularly soon after the patient misses an appointment.

Modeling the causal effect of treatment initiation time on survival: Application to HIV/TB co-infection

The timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation for HIV and tuberculosis (TB) co-infected patients needs to be considered carefully. CD4 cell count can be used to guide decision making about when to initiate ART. Evidence from recent randomized trials and observational studies generally supports early initiation but does not provide information about effects of initiation time on a continuous scale. In this article, we develop and apply a highly flexible structural proportional hazards model for characterizing the effect of treatment initiation time on a survival distribution. The model can be fitted using a weighted partial likelihood score function. Construction of both the score function and the weights must accommodate censoring of the treatment initiation time, the outcome, or both. The methods are applied to data on 4903 individuals with HIV/TB co-infection, derived from electronic health records in a large HIV care program in Kenya. We use a model formulation that flexibly captures the joint effects of ART initiation time and ART duration using natural cubic splines. The model is used to generate survival curves corresponding to specific treatment initiation times; and to identify optimal times for ART initiation for subgroups defined by CD4 count at time of TB diagnosis. Our findings potentially provide 'higher resolution' information about the relationship between ART timing and mortality, and about the differential effect of ART timing within CD4 subgroups.

Is more research always needed? Estimating optimal sample sizes for trials of retention in care interventions for HIV-positive East Africans

INTRODUCTION

Given the serious health consequences of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy, randomised control trials of interventions to improve retention in care may be warranted. As funding for global HIV research is finite, it may be argued that choices about sample size should be tied to maximising health.

METHODS

For an East African setting, we calculated expected value of sample information and expected net benefit of sampling to identify the optimal sample size (greatest return on investment) and to quantify net health gains associated with research. Two hypothetical interventions were analysed: (1) one aimed at reducing disengagement from HIV care and (2) another aimed at finding/relinking disengaged patients.

RESULTS

When the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold was within a plausible range (1-3 × GDP; US$1377-4130/QALY), the optimal sample size was zero for both interventions, meaning that no further research was recommended because the pre-research probability of an intervention's effectiveness and value was sufficient to support a decision on whether to adopt the intervention and any new information gained from additional research would likely not change that decision. In threshold analyses, at a higher WTP of $5200 the optimal sample size for testing a risk reduction intervention was 2750 per arm. For the outreach intervention, the optimal sample size remained zero across a wide range of WTP thresholds and was insensitive to variation. Limitations, including not varying all inputs in the model, may have led to an underestimation of the value of investing in new research.

CONCLUSION

In summary, more research is not always needed, particularly when there is moderately robust prestudy belief about intervention effectiveness and little uncertainty about the value (cost-effectiveness) of the intervention. Users can test their own assumptions at http://torchresearch.org.

Clinical decision tools are needed to identify HIV-positive patients at high risk for poor outcomes after initiation of antiretroviral therapy

Margaret McNairy and colleagues highlight the need for clinical decision tools to help identify HIV patients who would benefit from tailored services to avoid poor outcomes such as death and loss to follow-up.

Quality Control Process for EQ-5D-5L Valuation Studies

BACKGROUND

The values of the five-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) are elicited using composite time trade-off and discrete choice experiments. Unfortunately, data quality issues and interviewer effects were observed in the first few EQ-5D-5L valuation studies. To prevent these issues from occurring in later studies, the EuroQol Group established a cyclic quality control (QC) process.

OBJECTIVES

To describe this QC process and show its impact on data quality.

METHODS

A newly developed QC tool provided information about protocol compliance, interviewer effects, and mean values by health state severity. In a cyclic process, this information is initially used to evaluate whether new interviewers meet minimal quality requirements and later to provide feedback about how their performance may be improved. To investigate the impact of this cyclic process, we compared the quality of the data in Dutch and Spanish valuation studies that did not have this QC process with that in the follow-up studies in the same countries that used the QC process. Data quality was measured using protocol violations, variability between interviewers, the proportion of inconsistent responders, and clustering of composite time trade-off values.

RESULTS

In Spain, protocol violations were reduced from 87% in the valuation study to 5% in the follow-up study and in the Netherlands from 20% to 8%. In both countries, interviewers performed more homogeneously in the follow-up studies. The number of inconsistent respondents was reduced by 23.2% in Spain and 23.6% in the Netherlands. Values were less clustered in the follow-up studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of a strict QC process in EQ-5D-5L valuation studies increases interviewer protocol compliance and promotes data quality.

Outcomes of HIV-positive patients lost to follow-up in African treatment programmes

OBJECTIVE

The retention of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is key to achieving global targets in response to the HIV epidemic. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) can be substantial, with unknown outcomes for patients lost to ART programmes. We examined changes in outcomes of patients LTFU over calendar time, assessed associations with other study and programme characteristics and investigated the relative success of different tracing methods.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and logistic random-effects meta-regression analysis of studies that traced adults or children who started ART and were LTFU in sub-Saharan African treatment programmes. The primary outcome was mortality, and secondary outcomes were undocumented transfer to another programme, treatment interruption and the success of tracing attempts.

RESULTS

We included 32 eligible studies from 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: 20 365 patients LTFU were traced, and 15 708 patients (77.1%) were found. Compared to telephone calls, tracing that included home visits increased the probability of success: the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 9.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.85-47.31). The risk of death declined over calendar time (aOR per 1-year increase 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95), whereas undocumented transfers (aOR 1.13, 95% CI 0.96-1.34) and treatment interruptions (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.18-1.45) tended to increase. Mortality was lower in urban than in rural areas (aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.98), but there was no difference in mortality between adults and children. The CD4 cell count at the start of ART increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among HIV-positive patients who started ART in sub-Saharan Africa, were lost to programmes and were successfully traced has declined substantially during the scale-up of ART, probably driven by less severe immunodeficiency at the start of therapy.

Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypothetical Strategies to Enhance Retention in Care within HIV Treatment Programs in East Africa

OBJECTIVES

Attrition from care among HIV infected patients can lead to poor clinical outcomes. Our objective was to evaluate hypothetical interventions seeking to improve retention-in-care (RIC) for HIV-infected patients in East Africa, asking whether they could offer favorable value compared to earlier ART initiation.

METHODS

We used a micro-simulation model to analyze two RIC focused strategies within an East African HIV treatment program--"risk reduction," defined as intervention(s) that decrease the risk of attrition from care; and "outreach," defined as interventions that find patients and relink them with care. We compared this to earlier ART treatment as a measure of the potential health benefits forgone (e.g., opportunity cost).

RESULTS

Reducing attrition by 40% at an average cost of $10 per person remains a less efficient use of resources compared to ensuring full access to ART (cost- effectiveness ratio $1300 vs $3700) for ART eligible patients. An outreach intervention had limited clinical benefit in our simulation. If intervention costs are <$10 per person, however, an intervention able to achieve a 40% (or greater) reduction in attrition may be a cost-effective next implementation option following implementation of earlier ART treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that programs should consider retention focused programs once they have already achieved high degrees of ART coverage among eligible patients. It is important that decision makers understand the epidemiology and associated outcomes of those patients who are classified as lost to follow up in their systems prior to implementation in order to achieve the highest value.