Recurrence After Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A New MORAL to the Story. Ann Surg. 2017;265:557-564. [PMID: 27611615 DOI: 10.1097/sla.0000000000001966]

Ex-vivo 7T MRI of human explanted cirrhotic liver with HCC: quantitative and qualitative evaluation with radiological-pathological correlation

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma's (HCC) pathological grading is a recognized factor influencing intrahepatic recurrence after treatment. Thus, understanding the HCC heterogeneity is crucial to select the best treatment option aiming at personalized medicine. 7T MRI can provide qualitative and quantitative data, potentially identifying imaging biomarkers for lesions characterization.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From May 2019 to December 2019, all explanted livers of patients undergoing liver transplant were enrolled. All patients underwent whole body CT before liver transplant and all the explanted livers were evaluated (ex-vivo) by 7T MRI within 12 h from liver removal with qualitative and quantitative acquisitions, including 2D/3D magnetic resonance fingerprinting (MRF). First, two expert radiologists qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated the imaging data focusing on both lesions and surrounding tissue, comparing conventional and MRF sequences. Then, specimens were evaluated by an expert pathologist regarding both liver tissues and lesions, particularly focusing on HCC grading.

CONCLUSIONS

This work may represent the first step supporting the introduction of quantitative MR imaging (including MRF) in the clinical practice. Along with conventional protocol and dynamic contrast enhancement, the integration of quantitative MR imaging can provide imaging biomarkers useful to identify HCC lesions more prone to recurrence, leading to a better patient selection, according to a personalized medicine approach.

Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma receiving curative therapies: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality worldwide. The prognostic significance of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in HCC patients has been extensively studied; however, the prognostic value of NLR in HCC patients undergoing curative treatment remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to comprehensively evaluate the precise significance of preoperative and postoperative NLR in predicting the prognosis of HCC patients receiving curative treatment.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search of the PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Web of Science databases from inception to August 2024. Studies that included univariate and multivariate analyses evaluating the association between NLR and survival outcomes in HCC patients undergoing resection, transplantation, or ablation were included. The prognostic value of NLR in HCC patients receiving curative treatment was analyzed by calculating pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 43 studies involving 9,952 patients were included. Meta-analysis revealed that higher NLR was significantly associated with worse overall survival (OS) (HR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.39-1.75, P < 0.001), recurrence-free survival (RFS) (HR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.49-2.10, P < 0.001), and disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.25-1.63, P < 0.001) in HCC patients undergoing curative treatment. Subgroup analysis demonstrated a significant association between NLR and poor OS, independent of geographic region, type of survival analysis, preoperative or postoperative measurement, treatment modality, or NLR cutoff value. Publication bias and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings.

CONCLUSION

Elevated NLR is significantly associated with poorer OS, RFS, and DFS in HCC patients receiving curative treatment. Future research should focus on validating the optimal NLR threshold and exploring its predictive ability in different clinical settings.

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplant: An Australian single-centre study

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT) offers the most effective treatment. HCC recurrence is the strongest risk factor that decreases post-LT survival in patients transplanted for HCC. The rate of HCC recurrence is generally reported as 8%-20% in the literature. Many predictors of HCC have already been researched, however, to our knowledge there are no published studies on this topic using Australian data.

AIM

To determine the rate and identify predictors of HCC recurrence in a contemporary Western Australian LT cohort.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of all liver transplants in patients with HCC at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital between 2006 and 2021. Data was collected from various health record databases and included recipient demographics, serum biochemistry, radiology, operation notes, explant histopathology and details of recurrence. Overall survival of HCC patients post-LT, stratified for recurrence, was calculated by Kaplan Meier analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression was used to determine predictors of HCC recurrence post-LT.

RESULTS

Between 1/1/2006 and 12/31/2021, 119 patients were transplanted with HCC. 8.4% of subjects developed recurrent HCC after LT with median follow-up time of 5.4 years. The median time to recurrence was 2.9 years ± 0.75 years. When comparing baseline characteristics, a greater proportion of subjects with recurrence had common characteristics on explant histopathology, including > 3 viable nodules (P = 0.001), vascular invasion (P = 0.003) and poorly differentiated HCC (P = 0.03). Unadjusted survival curves showed lower 1-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year survival rates in subjects with HCC recurrence compared to those without HCC recurrence (90% vs 92%, 70% vs 88%, 42% vs 80%, 14% vs 76%, respectively; log rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

HCC recurrence was low at 8.4% in this contemporary Australian cohort, however it significantly impacted post-LT survival. Further studies are required to confirm predictors of recurrence and improve recipient outcomes.

Combining radiomics and imaging biomarkers with clinical variables for the prediction of HCC recurrence after liver transplantation

To develop and validate an integrated model that combines CT-based radiomics and imaging biomarkers with clinical variables to predict recurrence and recurrence-free survival in patients with HCC following liver transplantation (LT), this 2-center retrospective study includes 123 patients with HCC who underwent LT between 2007 and 2021. Radiomic features (RFs) were extracted from baseline CT liver tumor volume. Feature selection was performed using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression method with 10-fold cross-validation in the training cohort (n=48) to build a predictive radiomics signature for HCC recurrence. Combined diagnostic models were built based on the radiomics signature supplemented with imaging features beyond the Milan criteria, the AFP (alpha-fetoprotein) model, and Metroticket 2.0 before LT using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed in both internal (n=22) and external (n=53) validation cohorts, and patients were stratified into either high-risk or low-risk groups for HCC recurrence. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to analyze recurrence-free survival. LASSO and multivariate regression analysis revealed 4 independent predictors associated with an increased risk of HCC recurrence: radiomics signature of 5 RF, peritumoral enhancement, satellite nodules, and no bridging therapies. For the prediction of tumor recurrence, the highest AUC of the final integrated models combining clinical variables, non-radiomics imaging features, and radiomics was 0.990 and 0.900 for the internal and external validation sets, respectively, outperforming the Milan and clinical stand-alone models. In all integrated models, the high-risk groups had a shorter recurrence-free survival than the corresponding low-risk group. CT-based radiomics and imaging parameters beyond the Milan criteria representing aggressive behavior, along with the history of bridging therapies, show potential for predicting HCC recurrence after LT.

A prospective multicenter validation of RETREAT for posttransplantation HCC recurrence prediction

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The RETREAT(Risk Estimation of Tumor REcurrence After Transplant) score is a simple risk stratification tool for postliver transplantation (LT) HCC recurrence that has been validated in retrospective cohort studies. A prospective, multicenter study is needed to further demonstrate accuracy especially given the evolving clinical demographics and HCC transplant practice. Our aim is to validate and compare the RETREAT score to other post-LT HCC recurrence risk scores in a contemporary, prospective cohort of patients.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We prospectively enrolled patients with HCC who underwent LT from 8 centers between 2018 and 2022. The primary outcome was post-LT recurrence-free survival. Secondary outcomes included post-LT and post-recurrence survival. Model performance, determined using the concordance index, Akaike information criterion, integrated Brier score, and calibration, was compared to that of other established risk scores.We included 1166 patients with HCC who underwent LT, of which 78 (6.7%) had post-LT HCC recurrence after a median follow-up time of 2.2 years (IQR 1.2-3.2). The median RETREAT score was 4 (IQR 3-5) in patients with post-LT HCC recurrence and 1 (IQR 1 - 2) in patients without. Those with a RETREAT score of 0, 3, and 5+ had a 99.4%, 84.1%, and 55.6% recurrence-free survival, respectively, at 3 years post-LT. The RETREAT score was also able to stratify post-LT overall and postrecurrence survival. The RETREAT score's concordance index was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.85) and outperformed the MORAL and RELAPSE scores across multiple metrics.

CONCLUSIONS

The RETREAT score retains high accuracy for predicting post-LT HCC recurrence, further supporting RETREAT-guided post-LT HCC surveillance and care.

Reappraisal of tacrolimus levels after liver transplant for HCC: A multicenter study toward personalized immunosuppression regimen

Post-liver transplant (LT) immunosuppression is necessary to prevent rejection; however, a major consequence of this is tumor recurrence. Although recurrence is a concern after LT for patients with HCC, the oncologically optimal tacrolimus (FK) regimen is still unknown. This retrospective study included 1406 patients with HCC who underwent LT (2002-2019) at 4 US institutions using variable post-LT immunosuppression regimens. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed to investigate the influences of post-LT time-weighted average FK (TWA-FK) level on HCC recurrence. A competing risk analysis was employed to evaluate the prognostic influence of TWA-FK while adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. The AUC for TWA-FK was greatest at 2 weeks (0.68), followed by 1 week (0.64) after LT. Importantly, this was consistently observed across the institutions despite immunosuppression regimen variability. In addition, the TWA-FK at 2 weeks was not associated with rejection within 6 months of LT. A competing risk regression analysis showed that TWA-FK at 2 weeks after LT is significantly associated with recurrence (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.21-1.41, p < 0.001). The TWA-FK effect on recurrence varied depending on the exposure level and the individual's risk of recurrence, including vascular invasion and tumor morphology. Although previous studies have explored the influence of FK levels at 1-3 months after LT on HCC recurrence, this current study suggests that earlier time points and exposure levels must be evaluated. Each patient's oncological risk must also be considered in developing an individualized immunosuppression regimen.

Comparative Validation of Prediction Models for HCC Outcomes in Living Donor Liver Transplantation: Superiority of Tumor Markers to Imaging Study

BACKGROUND

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) offers timely curative treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims to validate and compare previous prediction models for HCC outcomes in 488 LDLT recipients.

METHODS

For 488 patients who underwent LDLT for HCC, pretransplant imaging studies assessed by modified RECSIT criteria, tumor markers such as alpha feto-protein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA II), and explant pathology were recruited. C-index of models for the HCC outcomes was compared, followed by further investigation for the predictive performances of the best model.

RESULTS

We found MoRAL (11√PIVKA-II + 2√AFP) demonstrated a higher C-index for HCC recurrence than other models that included radiologically viable tumor number and/or size (MoRAL: 0.709, Milan: 0.537, UCSF: 0.575, Up-to-7: 0.572, French AFP: 0.634, Pre-MORAL: 0.637, HALT-HCC: 0.626, Metroticket2.0: 0.629) and also had the highest C-index for HCC-specific deaths (0.706). Five-year HCC recurrence was well stratified upon dividing the patients into three groups by MoRAL cutoffs (11.9% for MoRAL < 100, 29.6% for MoRAL 100-200, and 48.6% for MoRAL > 200, p < 0.001). However, patients with major vessel invasion or portal vein tumor thrombus showed similarly high HCC recurrence regardless of this grouping (p = 0.612).

CONCLUSION

The MoRAL, based on tumor markers, showed the best predictive performance for HCC recurrence and HCC-specific death among the validated models, except in cases with major vessel invasion or portal vein tumor thrombus.

HepatoPredict Accurately Selects Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients for Liver Transplantation Regardless of Tumor Heterogeneity

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of cancer-related deaths rising worldwide. This is leading to an increased demand for liver transplantation (LT), the most effective treatment for HCC in its initial stages. However, current patient selection criteria are limited in predicting recurrence and raise ethical concerns about equitable access to care. This study aims to enhance patient selection by refining the HepatoPredict (HP) tool, a machine learning-based model that combines molecular and clinical data to forecast LT outcomes.

METHODS

The updated HP algorithm was trained on a two-center dataset and assessed against standard clinical criteria. Its prognostic performance was evaluated through accuracy metrics, with additional analyses considering tumor heterogeneity and potential sampling bias.

RESULTS

HP outperformed all clinical criteria, particularly regarding negative predictive value, addressing critical limitations in existing selection strategies. It also demonstrated improved differentiation of recurrence-free and overall survival outcomes. Importantly, the prognostic accuracy of HP remained largely unaffected by intra-nodule and intra-patient heterogeneity, indicating its robustness even when biopsies were taken from smaller or non-dominant nodules.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the usage of HP as a valuable tool for optimizing LT candidate selection, promoting fair organ allocation and enhancing patient outcomes through integrated analysis of molecular and clinical data.

Sorafenib as Adjuvant Therapy Post-Liver Transplant: A Single-center Experience

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a rising incidence and mortality in North America. Liver transplantation (LT) with adjunctive therapies offers excellent outcomes. However, HCC recurrences are associated with high mortality. We investigate whether adjuvant systemic therapy can reduce recurrence, as shown with other malignancies.

Methods

Medical records of patients undergoing LT for HCC at a single center between January 2016 and December 2022 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were stratified into 3 groups: (1) recipients of adjuvant sorafenib, (2) nonrecipients at high recurrence risk, and (3) nonrecipients at low risk by explant pathology features. The outcomes were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Adjuvant sorafenib recipients were also propensity score matched 1:2 to nonadjuvant recipients based on recurrence risk features.

Results

During the study period, 273 patients with HCC underwent LT and 16 (5.9%) received adjuvant sorafenib therapy. Adjuvant sorafenib recipients were demographically similar to nonrecipients and, on explant pathology, had greater tumor burden, lymphovascular invasion, and poorer differentiation (all P < 0.001). Adverse events were observed in 12 adjuvant sorafenib recipients (75%). OS was similar among the 3 groups (P = 0.2), and adjuvant sorafenib was not associated with OS in multivariable analysis (hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-3.78; P = 0.62). RFS was significantly lower in sorafenib patients (hazard ratio, 6.99; 95% confidence interval, 2.12-23.05; P = 0.001). Following propensity matching, adjuvant sorafenib use was not associated with either OS (P = 0.24) or RFS rates (P = 0.65).

Conclusions

In this single-center analysis, adjuvant sorafenib was not associated with OS. Recipients were observed to have shorter RFS, likely due to the increased prevalence of high-risk features, and sorafenib use was associated with high frequencies of adverse events.

Validation of the R3-AFP model for risk prediction of HCC recurrence after liver transplantation in the SiLVER randomized clinical trial

Explant-based models for assessing HCC recurrence after liver transplantation serve as the gold standard, guiding post-liver transplantation screening and immunosuppression adjustment. Incorporating alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels into these models, such as the novel R3-AFP score, has notably enhanced risk stratification. However, validation of these models in high-evidence data is mandatory. Therefore, the aim of the present research was to validate the R3-AFP score in a randomized clinical trial. We analyzed the intention-to-treat population from the 2-arm SiLVER trial (NCT00355862), comparing calcineurin-based ([calcineurin inhibitors]-Group A) versus mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors-based (sirolimus-Group B) immunosuppression for post-liver transplantation HCC recurrence. Competing risk analysis estimated sub-hazard ratios, with testing of discriminant function and calibration. Overall, 508 patients from the intention-to-treat analysis were included (Group A, n = 256; Group B, n = 252). The R3-AFP score distribution was as follows: 42.6% low-risk (n = 216), 35.7% intermediate-risk (n = 181), 19.5% high-risk (n = 99), and 2.2% very-high-risk (n = 11) groups. The R3-AFP score effectively stratified HCC recurrence risk, with increasing risk for each stratum. Calibration of the R3-AFP model significantly outperformed other explant-based models (Milan, Up-to-7, and RETREAT), whereas discrimination power (0.75 [95% CI: 0.69; 0.81]) surpassed these models, except for the RETREAT model ( p = 0.49). Subgroup analysis showed lower discrimination power in the mammalian target of rapamycin group versus the calcineurin inhibitors group ( p = 0.048). In conclusion, the R3-AFP score accurately predicted HCC recurrence using high-quality evidence-based data, exhibiting reduced performance under mammalian target of rapamycin immunosuppression. This highlights the need for further research to evaluate surveillance schedules and adjuvant regimens.

Survival benefit associated with liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma based on tumor burden scores at listing

INTRODUCTION

Liver transplantation (LT) provides significant survival benefits to patients with unresectable HCC. In the United States, organ allocation policies for HCCs within the United Network for Organ Sharing criteria do not prioritize patients based on their differences in oncological characteristics. This study assessed whether transplant-associated survival benefits (TASBs) vary among patients with different tumor burden scores (TBS) measured at the time of listing.

METHODS

We analyzed data from adults applying for HCC MELD exception points between 2002 and 2019, with follow-up until December 2023, using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. TBS was determined based on the largest tumor diameter and number of HCCs. Patients were categorized into low (≤3), intermediate (3.1-5), and high (>5) TBS groups. TASB was measured as the difference in 5-year survival with and without LT.

RESULTS

This study included 36,634 LT candidates. High-TBS patients had higher waitlist dropout rates and marginally lower post-transplant survival, resulting in a significantly greater TASB. The 5-year TASB for the low, intermediate, and high TBS groups were 15.7, 22.1, and 25.0 months, respectively. The adjusted survival benefit expressed in 5-year survival differences was 21.9%, 34.5%, and 39.4% in the low, intermediate, and high TBS groups, respectively (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher TBS during listing correlates with greater LT benefits for patients with unresectable HCC within UNOS criteria. We conclude that organ allocation policies in the United States should prioritize patients with high TBS due to their increased risk of dropout and comparable post-transplant survival when compared to patients with less advanced tumors.

Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Liver transplantation (LT) offers the best chance of cure for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), as it addresses simultaneously the underlying disease and the tumour. The Milan criteria has been the standard for over 3 decades in selecting patients with HCC who will benefit from LT. While, early studies showed higher recurrence rates for HCC following living donor LT (LDLT), recent series, especially in the past decade have shown LDLT to have equal oncological outcomes as compared to deceased donor LT (DDLT) for HCC, even in patients beyond Milan criteria. Further, the intention to treat analysis data suggests that LDLT may actually provide a survival advantage. In the west, factors such as improved outcomes on par with DDLT, ability to time the LT etc., have led to a steadily increased number of LDLTs being performed for this indication. On the other hand, in the east, given its geo-socio-cultural idiosyncrasies, LDLT has always been the predominant form of LT for HCC, consequently resulting in an increased number of LDLTs being performed for this indication across the world. While LDLT in HCC has its distinctive advantages compared to DDLT, the double equipoise of balancing the donor risk with the recipient outcomes has to be considered while selecting patients for LDLT. There have been several advances including the application of downstaging therapies and the use of biological markers, which have further helped improve outcomes of LDLT for this indication. This review aims to provide an update on the current advances in the field of transplant oncology related to the practice of LDLT in HCC.

Recurrence risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is an effective method for curing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However postoperative tumor recurrence can lead to higher mortality rates. To select suitable candidates for LT, the Milan Criteria (MC) were first proposed based on tumor morphological characteristics. For those patients who meet the MC, the MC can effectively reduce the postoperative tumor recurrence rate and improve the prognosis of patients undergoing LT. It has always been internationally recognized as the gold standard for selecting candidates for LT, marking a milestone in the history of LT for HCC. However, its strict conditions exclude some HCC patients who could benefit from LT. Therefore, comprehension consideration criteria, including serum biomarkers, tumor histology, and other factor, have been continuously proposed in addition to tumor morphology. This article summaries the prediction model for HCC recurrence after LT from five aspects: tumor morphology, serum markers, histopathology, cellular inflammatory factors and downstaging treatment before transplantation. The aim is to assist clinicians in accurately assessing HCC status, selecting appropriate liver transplant candidates, maximize graft and patients' survival, and optimizing the utilization of social health resources.

Artificial intelligence-based model for the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence-based models might improve patient selection for liver transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma. The objective of the current study was to develop artificial intelligence-based deep learning models and determine the risk of recurrence after living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

The study was a single-center retrospective cohort study. Patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma were divided into training and validation cohorts (n = 192). The deep learning models were used to stratify patients in the training cohort into low- and high-risk groups, and 5-year recurrence-free survival was assessed in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 59.1 (33.9-72.4) months. The artificial intelligence model (pretransplant factors) had an area under the curve of 0.86 in the training cohort and 0.71 in the validation cohort. The largest tumor diameter and alpha-fetoprotein level had the greatest Shapley Additive exPlanations values for recurrence (>0.4). The 5-year recurrence-free survival rates in the low- and high-risk groups were 92.6% and 45% (P < .001). In the second artificial intelligence model (pretransplant factors + grade), the area under the curve for the validation cohort was 0.77, with 5-year recurrence-free survival rates of 96% and 30% in the low- and high-risk groups (P < .001). None of the low-risk patients outside the Milan and University of California San Francisco Criteria had recurrence during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The artificial intelligence-based hepatocellular carcinoma transplant recurrence models might improve patient selection for liver transplantation.

SIMAP500: A novel risk score to identify recipients at higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence following liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT) has a devastating influence on recipients' survival; however, the risk of recurrence is not routinely stratified. Risk stratification is vital with a long LT waiting time, as that could influence the recurrence despite strict listing criteria.

AIM

This study aims to identify predictors of recurrence and develop a novel risk prediction score to forecast HCC recurrence following LT.

METHODS

A retrospective review of LT for HCC recipients at University Hospitals Birmingham between July 2011 and February 2020. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify recurrence predictors, based on which the novel SIMAP500 (satellite nodules, increase in size, microvascular invasion, AFP > 500, poor differentiation) risk score was proposed.

RESULTS

234 LTs for HCC were performed with a median follow-up of 5.3 years. Recurrence developed in 25 patients (10.7%). On univariate analyses, RETREAT score > 3, α-fetoprotein (AFP) at listing 100-500 and > 500, bridging, increased tumour size between imaging at the listing time and explant histology, increase in the size of viable tumour between listing and explant, presence of satellite nodules, micro- and macrovascular invasion on explant and poor differentiation of tumours were significantly associated with recurrence, based on which, the SIMAP500 risk score is proposed. The SIMAP500 demonstrated an excellent predictive ability (c-index = 0.803) and outperformed the RETREAT score (c-index = 0.73). SIMAP500 is indicative of the time to disease recurrence.

CONCLUSION

SIMAP500 risk score identifies the LT recipients at risk of HCC recurrence. Risk stratification allows patient-centric post-transplant surveillance programs. Further validation of the score is recommended.

Recent Advances in Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OPINION STATEMENT

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains an evolving field. Major challenges HCC transplant patients face today include liver organ donor shortages and the need for both better pre-transplant bridging/downstaging therapies and post-transplant HCC recurrence treatment options. The advent of immunotherapy and the demonstrated efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors in multiple solid tumors including advanced/unresectable HCC hold promise in expanding both the neoadjuvant and adjuvant HCC transplant treatment regimen, though caution is needed with these immune modulating agents leading up to and following transplant. New options for pre-transplant HCC management will expand access to this curative option as well as ensure patients have adequate control of their HCC prior to transplant to maximize the utility of a liver donor. Machine perfusion has been an active area of investigation in recent years and could expand the organ donor pool, helping address current liver donor shortages. Finally, additional HCC biomarkers such as AFP-L3 and DCP have shown promise in improving risk stratification of HCC patients. Together, these three recent advancements will likely alter HCC transplant guidelines in the coming years.

Combined Hounsfield units of hepatocellular carcinoma on computed tomography and PET as a noninvasive predictor of early recurrence after living donor liver transplantation: Time-to-recurrence survival analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation is an effective treatment for preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence. This retrospective study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the attenuation in Hounsfield units (HU) on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) as a prognostic factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation as a treatment. Our goal is to optimize its predictive ability for early tumor recurrence and compare it with the other imaging modality-positron emission tomography (PET).

METHODS

In 618 cases of LDLT for HCC, only 131 patients with measurable viable HCC on preoperative CECT and preoperative positron emission tomography (PET) evaluations were included, with a minimum follow-up period of 6 years. Cox regression models were developed to identify predictors of postoperative recurrence. Performance metrics for both CT and PET were assessed. The correlation between these two imaging modalities was also evaluated. Survival analyses were conducted using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and area under the curve (AUC) to assess accuracy and determine optimized cut-off points.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that both arterial-phase preoperative tumor attenuation (HU) and PET were independent prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival. Both lower arterial tumor enhancement (Cut-off value = 59.2, AUC 0.88) on CT and PET positive (AUC 0.89) increased risk of early tumor recurrence 0.5-year time-dependent ROC. Composites with HU < 59.2 and a positive PET result exhibited significantly higher diagnostic accuracy in detecting early tumor recurrence (AUC = 0.96).

CONCLUSION

Relatively low arterial tumor enhancement values on CECT effectively predict early HCC recurrence after LDLT. The integration of CT and PET imaging may serve as imaging markers of early tumor recurrence in HCC patients after LDLT.

A novel nomogram to predict the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation using extended selection criteria

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantations (LTs) with extended criteria have produced surgical results comparable to those obtained with traditional standards. However, it is not sufficient to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after LT according to morphological criteria alone. The present study aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting HCC recurrence after LT using extended selection criteria.

METHODS

Retrospective data on patients with HCC, including pathology, serological markers and follow-up data, were collected from January 2015 to April 2020 at Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify and construct the prognostic nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Kaplan-Meier curves, decision curve analyses (DCAs), calibration diagrams, net reclassification indices (NRIs) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) values were used to assess the prognostic capacity of the nomogram.

RESULTS

A total of 301 patients with HCC who underwent LT were enrolled in the study. The nomogram was constructed, and the ROC curve showed good performance in predicting survival in both the development set (2/3) and the validation set (1/3) (the area under the curve reached 0.748 and 0.716, respectively). According to the median value of the risk score, the patients were categorized into the high- and low-risk groups, which had significantly different recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates (P < 0.01). Compared with the Milan criteria and University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, DCA revealed that the new nomogram model had the best net benefit in predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year RFS. The nomogram performed well for calibration, NRI and IDI improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram, based on the Milan criteria and serological markers, showed good accuracy in predicting the recurrence of HCC after LT using extended selection criteria.

Surgical outcome and risk scoring to predict survival after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumor thrombosis

Backgrounds/Aims

The hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is classified as the advanced stage (BCLC stage C) with extremely poor prognosis, and in current guidelines is recommended for systemic therapy. This study aimed to evaluate the surgical outcomes and long-term prognosis after hepatic resection (HR) for patients who have HCC combined with PVTT.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 332 patients who underwent HR for HCC with PVTT at ten tertiary referral hospitals in South Korea.

Results

The median overall and recurrence-free survival after HR were 32.4 and 8.6 months, while the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 75%, 48%, and 39%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, tumor number, tumor size, AFP, PIVKA-II, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade were significant prognostic factors. The risk scoring was developed using these seven factors-tumor, inflammation and hepatic function (TIF), to predict patient prognosis. The prognosis of the patients was well stratified according to the scores (log-rank test, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

HR for patients who have HCC combined with PVTT provided favorable survival outcomes. The risk scoring was useful in predicting prognosis, and determining the appropriate treatment strategy for those patients who have HCC with PVTT.

Research progress of protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common pathologic type of primary liver cancer. Liver transplantation (LT) is a radical strategy for treating patients with early-stage HCC, which may lead to a better prognosis compared to hepatectomy and ablation. However, survival of patients who develop HCC recurrence after LT is short, and early recurrence is the most common cause of death. Thus, efficient biomarkers are also needed in LT to guide precision therapy to improve patient prognosis and 5-year survival. Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) is an abnormal prothrombin that cannot activate coagulation, and it is significantly increased in patients with HCC, obstructive jaundice, and those taking vitamin K antagonists. Over the past decades, substantial progress has been made in the study of PIVKA-II in diagnosing, surveilling, and treating HCC, but its role in LT still needs to be elaborated. In this review, we focused on the role of PIVKA-II as a biomarker in LT for HCC, especially its relationship with clinicopathologic features, early recurrence, long-term survival, and donor-recipient selection.

Alpha-fetoprotein: Past, present, and future

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a glycoprotein that plays an important role in immune regulation with critical involvement in early human development and maintaining the immune balance during pregnancy. Postfetal development, the regulatory mechanisms controlling AFP undergo a shift and AFP gene transcription is suppressed. Instead, these enhancers refocus their activity to maintain albumin gene transcription throughout adulthood. During the postnatal period, AFP expression can increase in the setting of hepatocyte injury, regeneration, and malignant transformation. It is the first oncoprotein discovered and is routinely used as part of a screening strategy for HCC. AFP has been shown to be a powerful prognostic biomarker, and multiple HCC prognosis models confirmed the independent prognostic utility of AFP. AFP is also a useful predictive biomarker for monitoring the treatment response of HCC. In addition to its role as a biomarker, AFP plays important roles in immune modulation to promote tumorigenesis and thus has been investigated as a therapeutic target in HCC. In this review article, we aim to provide an overview of AFP, encompassing the discovery, biological role, and utility as an HCC biomarker in combination with other biomarkers and how it impacts clinical practice and future direction.

Assessing recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma by a predictive model based on sarcopenia

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia may be associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatectomy. But traditional single clinical variables are still insufficient to predict recurrence. We still lack effective prediction models for recent recurrence (time to recurrence < 2 years) after hepatectomy for HCC.

AIM

To establish an interventable prediction model to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) after hepatectomy for HCC based on sarcopenia.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 283 hepatitis B-related HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for the first time, and the skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar spine was measured by preoperative computed tomography. 94 of these patients were enrolled for external validation. Cox multivariate analysis was per-formed to identify the risk factors of postoperative recurrence in training cohort. A nomogram model was developed to predict the RFS of HCC patients, and its predictive performance was validated. The predictive efficacy of this model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia [Hazard ratio(HR) = 1.767, 95%CI: 1.166-2.678, P < 0.05], alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 40 ng/mL (HR = 1.984, 95%CI: 1.307-3.011, P < 0.05), the maximum diameter of tumor > 5 cm (HR = 2.222, 95%CI: 1.285-3.842, P < 0.05), and hepatitis B virus DNA level ≥ 2000 IU/mL (HR = 2.1, 95%CI: 1.407-3.135, P < 0.05) were independent risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence of HCC. Based on the sarcopenia to assess the RFS model of hepatectomy with hepatitis B-related liver cancer disease (SAMD) was established combined with other the above risk factors. The area under the curve of the SAMD model was 0.782 (95%CI: 0.705-0.858) in the training cohort (sensitivity 81%, specificity 63%) and 0.773 (95%CI: 0.707-0.838) in the validation cohort. Besides, a SAMD score ≥ 110 was better to distinguish the high-risk group of postoperative recurrence of HCC.

CONCLUSION

Sarcopenia is associated with recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis B-related HCC. A nutritional status-based prediction model is first established for postoperative recurrence of hepatitis B-related HCC, which is superior to other models and contributes to prognosis prediction.

Analytical validation and algorithm improvement of HepatoPredict kit to assess hepatocellular carcinoma prognosis before a liver transplantation

Objectives

To verify the analytical performance of the HepatoPredict kit, a novel tool developed to stratify Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) patients according to their risk of relapse after a Liver Transplantation (LT).

Methods

The HepatoPredict tool combines clinical variables and a gene expression signature in an ensemble of machine-learning algorithms to forecast the benefit of a LT in HCC patients. To ensure the accuracy and reliability of this method, extensive analytical validation was conducted to verify its specificity and robustness. The experiments were designed following the guidelines for multi-target genomic assays such as ISO201395-2019, MIQE, CLSI-MM16, CLSI-MM17, and CLSI-EP17-A. The validation process included reproducibility between operators and between RNA extractions and RT-qPCR runs, and interference of input RNA levels or varying reagent levels. A recently retrained version of the HepatoPredict algorithms was also tested.

Results

The validation process demonstrated that the HepatoPredict kit met the required standards for robustness (p > 0.05), analytical specificity (inclusivity of 95 %), and sensitivity (LoB, LoD, linear range, and amplification efficiency between 90 and 110 %). The operator, equipment, input RNA, and reagents used had no significant effect on the HepatoPredict results. Additionally, the testing of a recently retrained version of the HepatoPredict algorithm, showed that this new version further improved the accuracy of the kit and performed better than existing clinical criteria in accurately identifying HCC patients who are more likely to benefit LT.

Conclusions

Even with the introduced variations in molecular and clinical variables, the HepatoPredict kit's prognostic information remains consistent. It can accurately identify HCC patients who are more likely to benefit from a LT. Its robust performance also confirms that it can be easily integrated into standard diagnostic laboratories.

Performance of eight predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation: A comparative study

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Liver transplantation is the optimal treatment for patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma and cirrhosis. However, hepatocellular carcinoma recurs in approximately 15 % of individuals. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 381 patients with HCC and evaluated the performance of the following models: R3-AFP score, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) nomogram, Pre-Model of Recurrence after Liver Transplantation (MORAL), Post-MORAL, and Combo MORAL models, Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence (RETREAT) model and Platelet to Lymphocyte Ratio (PLR) model.

RESULTS

The R3-AFP score, UCLA nomogram, AFP model, RETREAT, Combo MORAL, and Post-MORAL models exhibited comparable AUROCs, ranging from 0.785 to 0.733. The AUROCs for the R3-AFP model and AFP model were superior to those of the Pre-MORAL and PLR models. The UCLA nomogram, RETREAT score, Combo MORAL model, and Post-MORAL model performed similarly to the first two models, but were only superior to the PLR model.

CONCLUSIONS

The R3-AFP model, UCLA nomogram, AFP model, RETREAT, Combo MORAL, and Post-MORAL models demonstrated a moderate predictive capacity for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence following transplantation. No significant differences were observed among these models in their ability to predict recurrence.

Evolution of Liver Transplantation Indications: Expanding Horizons

Liver transplantation (LT) has significantly transformed the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The traditional epidemiology of liver diseases has undergone a remarkable shift in indications for LT, marked by a decline in viral hepatitis and an increase in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), along with expanded indications for HCC. Recent advancements in surgical techniques, organ preservation and post-transplant patients' management have opened new possibilities for LT. Conditions that were historically considered absolute contraindications have emerged as potential new indications, demonstrating promising results in terms of patient survival. While these expanding indications provide newfound hope, the ethical dilemma of organ scarcity persists. Addressing this requires careful consideration and international collaboration to ensure equitable access to LT. Multidisciplinary approaches and ongoing research efforts are crucial to navigate the evolving landscape of LT. This review aims to offer a current overview of the primary emerging indications for LT, focusing on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), acute alcoholic hepatitis (AH), intrahepatic and perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (i- and p-CCA), colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM), and neuroendocrine tumor (NET) liver metastases.

Circulating Tumor DNA Profiling in Liver Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Cholangiocarcinoma, and Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Programmatic Proof of Concept

INTRODUCTION

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is emerging as a promising, non-invasive diagnostic and surveillance biomarker in solid organ malignancy. However, its utility before and after liver transplant (LT) for patients with primary and secondary liver cancers is still underexplored.

METHODS

Patients undergoing LT for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), and colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) with ctDNA testing were included. CtDNA testing was conducted pre-transplant, post-transplant, or both (sequential) from 11/2019 to 09/2023 using Guardant360, Guardant Reveal, and Guardant360 CDx.

RESULTS

21 patients with HCC (n = 9, 43%), CRLM (n = 8, 38%), CCA (n = 3, 14%), and mixed HCC/CCA (n = 1, 5%) were included in the study. The median follow-up time was 15 months (range: 1-124). The median time from pre-operative testing to surgery was 3 months (IQR: 1-4; range: 0-5), and from surgery to post-operative testing, it was 9 months (IQR: 2-22; range: 0.4-112). A total of 13 (62%) patients had pre-transplant testing, with 8 (62%) having ctDNA detected (ctDNA+) and 5 (32%) not having ctDNA detected (ctDNA-). A total of 18 (86%) patients had post-transplant testing, 11 (61%) of whom were ctDNA+ and 7 (33%) of whom were ctDNA-. The absolute recurrence rates were 50% (n = 5) in those who were ctDNA+ vs. 25% (n = 1) in those who were ctDNA- in the post-transplant setting, though this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.367). Six (29%) patients (HCC = 3, CCA = 1, CRLM = 2) experienced recurrence with a median recurrence-free survival of 14 (IQR: 6-40) months. Four of these patients had positive post-transplant ctDNA collected following diagnosis of recurrence, while one patient had positive post-transplant ctDNA collected preceding recurrence. A total of 10 (48%) patients had sequential ctDNA testing, of whom n = 5 (50%) achieved ctDNA clearance (+/-). The remainder were ctDNA+/+ (n = 3, 30%), ctDNA-/- (n = 1, 10%), and ctDNA-/+ (n = 1, 11%). Three (30%) patients showed the acquisition of new genomic alterations following transplant, all without recurrence. Overall, the median tumor mutation burden (TMB) decreased from 1.23 mut/Mb pre-transplant to 0.00 mut/Mb post-transplant.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with ctDNA positivity experienced recurrence at a higher rate than the ctDNA- patients, indicating the potential role of ctDNA in predicting recurrence after curative-intent transplant. Based on sequential testing, LT has the potential to clear ctDNA, demonstrating the capability of LT in the treatment of systemic disease. Transplant providers should be aware of the potential of donor-derived cell-free DNA and improved approaches are necessary to address such concerns.

Indication of Liver Transplant for HCC: Current Status and Future Directions

Purpose of Review

Liver transplantation remains the gold-standard treatment for cirrhotic patients with early stage, surgically unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this review, we describe the current state of liver transplantation (LT) for HCC.

Recent Findings

We review recent advances in expanded indications for LT, diagnostics with liquid biopsy and biomarkers, and the emerging role of immunotherapy in this patient population.

Summary

Although the shortage of liver allografts necessitates a restrictive HCC selection policy, future advances in patient selection, liquid biopsy technologies and systemic therapies have the potential to improve access to liver transplantation even in patients with expanded indications, without compromising on post-transplant outcomes.

Analysis of clinicopathologic and imaging features of dual-phenotype hepatocellular carcinoma

Dual-phenotype hepatocellular carcinoma (DPHCC) is a new subtype of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the computerized tomography scan (CT) imaging and clinicopathologic features of DPHCC. The CT imaging and clinicopathologic data of 97 HCC cases who underwent radical resection were collected retrospectively. The CT imaging feature was evaluated by the ratio of the average CT value of tumor to liver (TLR) in the plain scan, arterial, portal vein and delayed phases. The association between CT imaging and clinicopathologic features was analyzed using the t-test or chi-square test. Univariate and multivariate recurrence-free survival (RFS) analysis and overall survival (OS) were performed. The positive rates of cytokeratin 7 (CK7) and CK19 were 35.1% and 20.6% respectively. The positive rate of CK19 was significantly higher in cases with age < 47 years (P = 0.005), tumor diameter > 4 cm (P = 0.016) or AFP ≥ 400 ng/ml (P = 0.007). The TLR in the portal vein phase was significantly lower in CK19 positive group (P = 0.024). The recurrence risk was significantly higher in cases with CK19 positive (HR: 2.17, 95% CI 1.16 to 4.04, P = 0.013), tumor diameter > 4 cm (HR: 2.05, 95% CI 1.11 to 3.78, P = 0.019), AFP ≥ 400 ng/ml (HR: 2.50, 95% CI 1.37 to 4.54, P = 0.002) or CA199 ≥ 37 U/ml (HR: 2.23, 95% CI 1.12 to 4.42, P = 0.020). However, imaging features, pathological subtype, CK7 or CK19 expression were not significantly related to HCC OS in the univariate and multivariate analysis (all P > 0.05). The expression of CK19 may be associated with the enhancement feature of the portal vein phase CT image, and CK19 positive may suggest a worse RFS.

Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment of many patients with HCC. To be successful, patients must undergo careful multidisciplinary evaluation and neoadjuvant treatment for bridging or downstaging. Patients with stable disease for 6 months are listed for transplant, after which regular surveillance is required to detect recurrence.

Evaluation of Multiple Liver Cancer Scoring Systems

Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in the world, and its incidence and mortality are increasing year by year. The prognosis of liver cancer depends on the stage of liver cancer, the treatment method, the liver function, and individual differences. The prognosis of liver cancer mainly worsens with the progression of the stage. The prediction and staging system of liver cancer prognosis plays a very important role in the outcome of liver cancer prognosis, providing some guidance for clinical practice and bringing benefits for patients. This article reports on the prediction models and staging systems that have been applied in the field of liver cancer in the past 5 years, objectively analyzes the advantages and disadvantages, applicable population of each model and staging system, and searches for other patient and clinical characteristics that need to be considered for successfully establishing a prediction model, aiming to improve the specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of liver cancer prediction and increase the overall survival rate of liver cancer.

Serial circulating tumor DNA profiling predicts tumor recurrence after liver transplantation for liver cancer

BACKGROUND

Minimal residual disease (MRD) is proposed to be responsible for tumor recurrence. The role of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) to detect MRD, monitor recurrence, and predict prognosis in liver cancer patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) remains unrevealed.

METHODS

Serial blood samples were collected to profile ctDNA mutational changes. Baseline ctDNA mutational profiles were compared with those of matched tumor tissues. Correlations between ctDNA status and recurrence rate (RR) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed, respectively. Dynamic change of ctDNA was monitored to predict tumor recurrence.

RESULTS

Baseline mutational profiles of ctDNA were highly concordant with those of tumor tissues (median, 89.85%; range 46.2-100%) in the 74 patients. Before LT, positive ctDNA status was associated with higher RR (31.7% vs 11.5%; p = 0.001) and shorter RFS than negative ctDNA status (17.8 vs 19.4 months; p = 0.019). After LT, the percentage of ctDNA positivity decreased (17.6% vs 47.0%; p < 0.001) and patients with positive ctDNA status had higher RR (46.2% vs 21.3%; p < 0.001) and shorter RFS (17.2 vs 19.2 months; p = 0.010). Serial ctDNA profiling demonstrated patients with decreased or constant negative ctDNA status had lower RR (33.3% vs 50.0%; p = 0.015) and favorable RFS (18.2 vs 15.0 months, p = 0.003) than those with increased or constant positive ctDNA status. Serial ctDNA profiling predicted recurrence months ahead of imaging evidence and serum tumor biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

ctDNA could effectively detect MRD and predict tumor recurrence in liver cancer patients undergone LT.

Molecular profiling in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to both summarize the current knowledge of hepatocellular carcinoma molecular biology and to suggest a framework in which to prospectively translate this knowledge into patient care. This is timely as recent guidelines recommend increased use of these technologies to advance personalized liver cancer care.

RECENT FINDINGS

The main themes covered here address germline and somatic genetic alterations recently discovered in hepatocellular carcinoma, largely owing to next generation sequencing technologies, and nascent efforts to translate these into contemporary practice.

SUMMARY

Early efforts of translating molecular profiling to hepatocellular carcinoma care demonstrate a growing number of potentially actionable alterations. Still lacking are a consensus on what biomarkers and technologies to adopt, at what scale and cost, and how to integrate them most effectively into care.

Insights into the history and tendency of liver transplantation for liver cancer: a bibliometric-based visual analysis

Research on liver transplantation (LT) for liver cancer has gained increasing attention. This paper has comprehensively described the current status, hotspots and trends in this field. A total of 2991 relevant articles from 1 January 1963 to 28 February 2023 were obtained from the Web of Science Core Collection. VOSviewer and CiteSpace software were utilized as bibliometric tools to analyze and visualize knowledge mapping. Between 1963 and 2023, the number of papers in the area of LT for liver cancer increased continuously. A total of 70 countries/regions, 2303 institutions and 14 840 researchers have published research articles, with the United States and China being the two most productive countries. Our bibliometric-based visual analysis revealed the expansion of LT indications for liver cancer and the prevention/treatment of cancer recurrence as ongoing research hotspots over the past decades. Meanwhile, emerging studies also focus on downstaging/bridging treatments before LT and the long-term survival of LT recipient, in particular the precise application of immunosuppressants.

Optimal Liver Transplantation Criteria for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Liver transplantation continues to be the optimal treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Given the limited organ supply, patient selection for liver transplant must carefully balance tumor progression with risk of recurrence posttransplant. There are several pretransplant selection criteria that incorporate biomarkers as well as imaging modality to risk-stratify patients as we continue to look for the optimal transplant cutoff for patients with HCC, which should be transplant-center specific, and account for organ availability and dynamic response to locoregional therapy.

Therapeutic Approach to Post-Transplant Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Certainties and Open Issues

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a growing indication for liver transplantation (LT). Careful candidate selection is a prerequisite to keep post-LT recurrence rates within acceptable percentages. In the pre-LT period, various types of locoregional treatments and/or systemic therapies can be used for bridging or downstaging purposes. In this context, one of the factors limiting the possibility of treatment is the degree of functional liver impairment. In the LT subject, no widely accepted indications are available to guide treatment of disease recurrence and heterogeneity exists between transplant centers. Improved liver function post LT makes multiple therapeutic strategies theoretically feasible, but patient management is complicated by the need to adjust immunosuppressive therapy and to assess potential toxicities and drug-drug interactions. Finally, there is controversy and uncertainty about the use of recently introduced immunotherapeutic drugs, mainly due to the risk of organ rejection. In this paper, we will review the most recent available literature on the management of post-transplant HCC recurrence, discussing evidence and controversies.

Cumulative exposure to tacrolimus during early period after liver transplantation does not affect the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

The clinical effects of tacrolimus (TAC) exposure on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) remain unclear. In this retrospective single centric study, 512 patients who underwent LT for HCC were divided into four groups according to cumulative exposure to tacrolimus (CET) during 3 months after LT: conventional (n = 218), aggressive minimization (n = 32), minimization (n = 161), and high exposure (n = 101). Impact of CET on HCC recurrence and death were analyzed. Compared with the conventional group, the other three CET groups showed a similar risk of HCC recurrence. The aggressive minimization group showed a higher risk [hazard ratio (HR) 5.64, P < 0.001] and the high exposure group showed a marginal risk (HR 1.67, P = 0.081) of overall death compared to the conventional group. CET during 3 months was not associated with HCC recurrence in the matched cohort and various subgroups. TAC minimization is not effective to prevent HCC recurrence but could result in higher mortality in LT recipients.

Benefit and harm of waiting time in liver transplantation for HCC

Liver transplantation is the most successful treatment for limited-stage HCC. The waiting time for liver transplantation (LT) can be a critical factor affecting the oncological prognosis and outcome of patients with HCC. Efficient strategies to optimize waiting time are essential to maximize the benefits of LT and to reduce the harm of delay in transplantation. The ever-increasing demand for donor livers emphasizes the need to improve the organization of the waiting list for transplantation and to optimize organ availability for patients with and without HCC. Current progress in innovations to expand the donor pool includes the implementation of living donor LT and the use of grafts from extended donors. By expanding selection criteria, an increased number of patients are eligible for transplantation, which necessitates criteria to prevent futile transplantations. Thus, the selection criteria for LT have evolved to include not only tumor characteristics but biomarkers as well. Enhancing our understanding of HCC tumor biology through the analysis of subtypes and molecular genetics holds significant promise in advancing the personalized approach for patients. In this review, the effect of waiting time duration on outcome in patients with HCC enlisted for LT is discussed.

Machine learning methods for accurately predicting survival and guiding treatment in stage I and II hepatocellular carcinoma

Accurately predicting survival in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is essential for making informed decisions about treatment and prognosis. Herein, we have developed a machine learning (ML) model that can predict patient survival and guide treatment decisions. We obtained patient demographic information, tumor characteristics, and treatment details from the SEER database. To analyze the data, we employed a Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model as well as 3 ML algorithms: neural network multitask logistic regression (N-MLTR), DeepSurv, and random survival forest (RSF). Our evaluation relied on the concordance index (C-index) and Integrated Brier Score (IBS). Additionally, we provided personalized treatment recommendations regarding surgery and chemotherapy choices and validated models' efficacy. A total of 1136 patients with early-stage (I, II) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent liver resection or transplantation were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 3:7. Feature selection was conducted using Cox regression analyses. The ML models (NMLTR: C-index = 0.6793; DeepSurv: C-index = 0.7028; RSF: C-index = 0.6890) showed better discrimination in predicting survival than the standard CoxPH model (C-index = 0.6696). Patients who received recommended treatments had higher survival rates than those who received unrecommended treatments. ML-based surgery treatment recommendations yielded higher hazard ratios (HRs): NMTLR HR = 0.36 (95% CI: 0.25-0.51, P < .001), DeepSurv HR = 0.34 (95% CI: 0.24-0.49, P < .001), and RSF HR = 0.37 (95% CI: 0.26-0.52, P = <.001). Chemotherapy treatment recommendations were associated with significantly improved survival for DeepSurv (HR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.4-0.82, P = .002) and RSF (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.46-0.94, P = .020). The ML survival model has the potential to benefit prognostic evaluation and treatment of HCC. This novel analytical approach could provide reliable information on individual survival and treatment recommendations.

Consensus on the tertiary prevention of primary liver cancer

To effectively prevent recurrence, improve the prognosis and increase the survival rate of primary liver cancer (PLC) patients with radical cure, the Chinese Society of Hepatology, Chinese Medical Association, invited clinical experts and methodologists to develop the Consensus on the Tertiary Prevention of Primary Liver Cancer, which was based on the clinical and scientific advances on the risk factors, histopathology, imaging finding, clinical manifestation, and prevention of recurrence of PLC. The purpose is to provide a current basis for the prevention, surveillance, early detection and diagnosis, and the effective measures of PLC recurrence.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Genetic Classification

ABSTRACT

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a significant global burden, with management complicated by its heterogeneity, varying presentation, and relative resistance to therapy. Recent advances in the understanding of the genetic, molecular, and immunological underpinnings of HCC have allowed a detailed classification of these tumors, with resultant implications for diagnosis, prognostication, and selection of appropriate treatments. Through the correlation of genomic features with histopathology and clinical outcomes, we are moving toward a comprehensive and unifying framework to guide our diagnostic and therapeutic approach to HCC.

Risk of Recurrence of Hepatocarcinoma after Liver Transplantation: Performance of Recurrence Predictive Models in a Cohort of Transplant Patients

Liver transplantation (LT) is a curative treatment for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) unsuitable for surgical resection. However, tumor recurrence (TR) rates range from 8% to 20% despite strict selection criteria. The validation of new prognostic tools, such as pre-MORAL or RETREAT risks, is necessary to improve recurrence prediction. A retrospective study was conducted at Marqués de Valdecilla University Hospital in Cantabria, Spain, between 2010 and 2019 to determine the rate of TR in LT patients and identify associated factors. Patients with liver-kidney transplantation, re-transplantation, HIV infection, survival less than 90 days, or incidental HCC were excluded. Data on demographic, liver disease-related, LT, and tumor-related variables, as well as follow-up records, including TR and death, were collected. TR was analyzed using the Log-Rank test, and a multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed. The study was approved by the IRB of Cantabria. TR occurred in 13.6% of LT patients (95% CI = 7.3-23.9), primarily as extrahepatic recurrence (67%) within the first 5 years (75%). Increased TR was significantly associated with higher Body Mass Index (BMI) (HR = 1.3 [95% CI = 1.1-1.5]), vascular micro-invasion (HR = 8.8 [1.6-48.0]), and medium (HR = 20.4 [3.0-140.4]) and high pre-MORAL risk (HR = 30.2 [1.6-568.6]). TR also showed a significant correlation with increased mortality. Conclusions: LT for HCC results in a 13.6% rate of tumor recurrence. Factors such as BMI, vascular micro-invasion, and medium/high pre-MORAL risk are strongly associated with TR following LT.

Development of a deep pathomics score for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Tumor recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) impedes the curative chance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. This study aimed to develop a deep pathomics score (DPS) for predicting tumor recurrence after liver transplantation using deep learning.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Two datasets of 380 HCC patients who underwent LT were enrolled. Residual convolutional neural networks were used to identify six histological structures of HCC. The individual risk score of each structure and DPS were derived by a modified DeepSurv network. Cox regression analysis and Concordance index were used to evaluate the prognostic significance. The cellular exploration of prognostic immune biomarkers was performed by quantitative and spatial proximity analysis according to three panels of 7-color immunofluorescence.

RESULTS

The overall classification accuracy of HCC tissue was 97%. At the structural level, immune cells were the most significant tissue category for predicting post-LT recurrence (HR 1.907, 95% CI 1.490-2.440). The C-indices of DPS achieved 0.827 and 0.794 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariate analysis for recurrence-free survival (RFS) showed that DPS (HR 4.795, 95% CI 3.017-7.619) was an independent risk factor. Patients in the high-risk subgroup had a shorter RFS, larger tumor diameter and a lower proportion of clear tumor borders. At the cellular level, a higher infiltration of intratumoral NK cells was negatively correlated with recurrence risk.

CONCLUSIONS

This study established an effective DPS. Immune cells were the most significant histological structure related to HCC recurrence. DPS performed well in post-LT recurrence prediction and the identification of clinicopathological features.

Development and validation of a REcurrent Liver cAncer Prediction ScorE (RELAPSE) following liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Analysis of the US Multicenter HCC Transplant Consortium

HCC recurrence following liver transplantation (LT) is highly morbid and occurs despite strict patient selection criteria. Individualized prediction of post-LT HCC recurrence risk remains an important need. Clinico-radiologic and pathologic data of 4981 patients with HCC undergoing LT from the US Multicenter HCC Transplant Consortium (UMHTC) were analyzed to develop a REcurrent Liver cAncer Prediction ScorE (RELAPSE). Multivariable Fine and Gray competing risk analysis and machine learning algorithms (Random Survival Forest and Classification and Regression Tree models) identified variables to model HCC recurrence. RELAPSE was externally validated in 1160 HCC LT recipients from the European Hepatocellular Cancer Liver Transplant study group. Of 4981 UMHTC patients with HCC undergoing LT, 71.9% were within Milan criteria, 16.1% were initially beyond Milan criteria with 9.4% downstaged before LT, and 12.0% had incidental HCC on explant pathology. Overall and recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 89.7%, 78.6%, and 69.8% and 86.8%, 74.9%, and 66.7%, respectively, with a 5-year incidence of HCC recurrence of 12.5% (median 16 months) and non-HCC mortality of 20.8%. A multivariable model identified maximum alpha-fetoprotein (HR = 1.35 per-log SD, 95% CI,1.22-1.50, p < 0.001), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (HR = 1.16 per-log SD, 95% CI,1.04-1.28, p < 0.006), pathologic maximum tumor diameter (HR = 1.53 per-log SD, 95% CI, 1.35-1.73, p < 0.001), microvascular (HR = 2.37, 95%-CI, 1.87-2.99, p < 0.001) and macrovascular (HR = 3.38, 95% CI, 2.41-4.75, p < 0.001) invasion, and tumor differentiation (moderate HR = 1.75, 95% CI, 1.29-2.37, p < 0.001; poor HR = 2.62, 95% CI, 1.54-3.32, p < 0.001) as independent variables predicting post-LT HCC recurrence (C-statistic = 0.78). Machine learning algorithms incorporating additional covariates improved prediction of recurrence (Random Survival Forest C-statistic = 0.81). Despite significant differences in European Hepatocellular Cancer Liver Transplant recipient radiologic, treatment, and pathologic characteristics, external validation of RELAPSE demonstrated consistent 2- and 5-year recurrence risk discrimination (AUCs 0.77 and 0.75, respectively). We developed and externally validated a RELAPSE score that accurately discriminates post-LT HCC recurrence risk and may allow for individualized post-LT surveillance, immunosuppression modification, and selection of high-risk patients for adjuvant therapies.

Recurrence in patients with totally necrotic nodules of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: "totally" an inaccurate description

Purpose

Total necrosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) achieved via locoregional treatment (LRT) is considered to indicate a lack of tumor viability. Nonetheless, there is insufficient evidence of recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) in patients with such a status. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognosis of patients diagnosed with totally necrotic nodules upon explant hepatectomy after LT.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study of patients diagnosed with totally necrotic nodules after LT for HCC. A total of 165 patients with HCC who underwent living- or deceased-donor LT from 2000 to 2020 in our hospital were included.

Results

A total of 5 patients (3.0%) exhibited HCC recurrence during a median follow-up of 84 months (range, 4-243 months) after LT. The 5-year overall and recurrence-free survival rates of these patients were 92.8% and 92.2%, respectively. Four patients in the HCC-recurrence group (80.0%) died even after further treatment, including transarterial chemoembolization, surgery, and systemic treatment. Both univariate and multivariate analyses of clinicopathological factors identified a maximum diameter of the totally necrotic nodules of >5 cm as the only factor associated with tumor recurrence following LT (P = 0.005 and P = 0.009, respectively).

Conclusion

Total necrosis of HCC via LRT yielded excellent survival outcomes for patients undergoing LT. Nevertheless, patients with large tumors should be considered at high risk of recurrence after LT, suggesting the need for their active surveillance during the follow-up period.

Thermal ablation as an alternative to liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma with clinically significant portal hypertension: propensity score matching study

Purpose

The objectives were to investigate the safety and efficacy of thermal ablation as an alternative to liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH).

Materials and Methods

From July 2016 to September 2019, hepatocellular carcinoma patients with CSPH treated by liver transplantation (N=37) or thermal ablation (N=114) were enrolled. Cumulative intrahepatic recurrence, overall survival and major complications were compared by propensity score matching.

Results

In the two matched groups, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year intrahepatic recurrence rates for the ablation group (22.3%, 50.0%, and 50.0%, respectively) were significantly higher than those for the transplantation group (4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.5%, respectively) (P=0.016). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival rates were comparable between the two groups [96.1%, 88.7%, and 88.7%, respectively (ablation group) vs. 84.6%, 76.2%, and 76.2%, respectively (transplantation group)] (P=0.07). The major complication rate for the ablation group [4.8% (3/62)] was significantly lower than that for the transplantation group [36.0% (9/25)] (P<0.001).

Conclusions

Thermal ablation is a safe and effective alternative for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with CSPH.

AFP score and metroticket 2.0 perform similarly and could be used in a "within-ALL" clinical decision tool

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Two recently developed composite models, the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) score and Metroticket 2.0, could be used to select patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are candidates for liver transplantation (LT). The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance of both models and to evaluate the net risk reclassification of post-LT recurrence between them using each model's original thresholds.

METHODS

This multicenter cohort study included 2,444 adult patients who underwent LT for HCC in 47 centers from Europe and Latin America. A competing risk regression analysis estimating sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% CIs for recurrence was used (Fine and Gray method). Harrell's adapted c-statistics were estimated. The net reclassification index for recurrence was compared based on each model's original thresholds.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, there were 310 recurrences and 496 competing events (20.3%). Both models predicted recurrence, HCC survival and survival better than Milan criteria (p <0.0001). At last tumor reassessment before LT, c-statistics did not significantly differ between the two composite models, either as original or threshold versions, for recurrence (0.72 vs. 0.68; p = 0.06), HCC survival, and overall survival after LT. We observed predictive gaps and overlaps between the model's thresholds, and no significant gain on reclassification. Patients meeting both models ("within-ALL") at last tumor reassessment presented the lowest 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence (7.7%; 95% CI 5.1-11.5) and higher 5-year post-LT survival (70.0%; 95% CI 64.9-74.6).

CONCLUSIONS

In this multicenter cohort, Metroticket 2.0 and the AFP score demonstrated a similar ability to predict HCC recurrence post-LT. The combination of these composite models might be a promising clinical approach.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Composite models were recently proposed for the selection of liver transplant (LT) candidates among individuals with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We found that both the AFP score and Metroticket 2.0 predicted post-LT HCC recurrence and survival better than Milan criteria; the Metroticket 2.0 did not result in better reclassification for transplant selection compared to the AFP score, with predictive gaps and overlaps between the two models; patients who met low-risk thresholds for both models had the lowest 5-year recurrence rate. We propose prospectively testing the combination of both models, to further optimize the LT selection process for candidates with HCC.

Interval dynamics of transplantability for hepatocellular carcinoma after primary curative resection: risk factors for nontransplantable recurrence

BACKGROUND

To investigate the changes in transplantability between primary and recurrent Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatic resection (HR) and the risk factors for nontransplantable recurrence (NTR).

METHODS

Consecutive 3122 patients who received HR for primary HCC between 2001 and 2019 were analyzed for changes in transplantability. Predictors of survival and NTR were evaluated using a competing risk analysis.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 78.3 months, the 5-year overall survival rate was 82.6%. Also, 58.2% of them developed recurrence after a median of 45.6 months. Recurrence occurred in 1205 and 611 patients with primary transplantable and nontransplantable HCC, respectively, of whom 26.1% and 63.2%, respectively, had NTR. Tumor diameter >3 cm [subdistribution hazard ratios (95% CI), 2.00 (1.62-2.48)], major resection [1.20 (1.00-1.43)], pathological grade >2 [1.28 (1.07-1.52)], microvascular invasion [1.74 (1.45-2.08)], and early recurrence (<1 year) [9.22 (7.83-10.87)] were associated with NTR. The overall transplantable pool increased from 72.3% to 77.5%.

CONCLUSION

Microvascular invasion and early recurrence were risk factors for NTR. Nonetheless, the transplantable pool increased after HR, 41.8% of the patients had no recurrence and may not require liver transplantation. If the patient's liver function is acceptable, HR should be considered the treatment of choice for HCC.