Abdominal Aortic Calcification and Surgical Outcomes in Patients With No Known Cardiovascular Risk Factors

The Naples prognostic score as a new predictive index of severe abdominal aortic calcification: a population-based study

Purpose

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) is related to inflammation and nutritional status. The Naples prognostic score (NPS) is an innovative biological marker capable of reflecting systemic inflammation and nutritional status. This research seeks to investigate the correlation of NPS with severe abdominal aortic calcification (SAAC).

Methods

The research evaluated data obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted between 2013 and 2014. The variables were filtered utilizing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. Weighted logistic regression models were employed to examine the association of NPS with SAAC. The predictive value of NPS for the risk of SAAC was assessed utilizing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A subgroup analysis was conducted to assess the strength and reliability of the research findings.

Results

The research encompassed 2,854 participants, among whom 303 (11.87%) exhibited SAAC. The outcomes of multivariate weighted logistic regression revealed that participants with a NPS of 3-4 points was positively correlated with SAAC in comparison to the control group [odds ratio (OR) = 2.07, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.17-3.67]. The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting the risk of SAAC using NPS was 0.635. The subgroup analysis results indicated that there was no significant difference noted in the association of NPS with SAAC across various population subgroups.

Conclusion

A positive association of NPS with SAAC has been observed in this research. This study offers valuable insights into the prevention and diagnosis of SAAC. Future longitudinal studies are warranted to confirm causative relationships and assess the role of NPS in clinical decision-making for SAAC.

Association of the abdominal aortic calcification with all-cause and cardiovascular disease-specific mortality: Prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) is a prevalent form of vascular calcification associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. While previous studies on AAC and cardiovascular risk exist, many have limitations such as small sample sizes and limited clinical significance outcomes. This study aims to prospectively investigate the association between AAC and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific mortality rates in a nationally representative sample of adults in the United States, using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

METHODS

The study, conducted on NHANES participants aged 40 years or older during the 2013-2014 cycle, assessed AAC using the Kauppila scoring system. Demographic characteristics, mortality data, and comorbid factors such as age, gender, diabetes, and hypertension were considered. Statistical analyses, including weighted percentages, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, were employed to evaluate the associations between AAC and mortality risks.

RESULTS

After analyzing a final sample of 2717 participants, the study found a significant association between severe AAC (SAAC) and higher all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.17-2.48). The dose-response relationship indicated an increased risk with higher AAC scores. However, no independent association was observed between AAC and cardiovascular mortality. Stratified analysis revealed variations in the AAC-all-cause mortality association based on gender and hypertension.

CONCLUSION

This population-based study provides valuable insights into the prospective association between AAC and all-cause mortality, emphasizing the potential role of AAC assessment in identifying individuals at higher risk.

Abdominal aortic calcification volume as a preoperative prognostic predictor for pancreatic cancer

PURPOSE

Atherosclerosis and cancer may progress through common pathological factors. This study was performed to investigate the association between the abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) volume and outcomes following surgical treatment for pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

The subjects of this retrospective study were 194 patients who underwent pancreatic cancer surgery between 2007 and 2020. The AAC volume was assessed through routine preoperative computed tomography. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of the AAC volume on oncological outcomes.

RESULTS

A higher AAC volume (≥ 312 mm3) was identified in 66 (34%) patients, who were significantly older and had a higher prevalence of diabetes and sarcopenia. Univariate analysis revealed several risk factors for overall survival (OS), including male sex, an AAC volume ≥ 312 mm3, elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9, prolonged operation time, increased intraoperative bleeding, lymph node metastasis, poor differentiation, and absence of adjuvant chemotherapy. Multivariate analysis identified an AAC volume ≥ 312 mm3, prolonged operation time, lymph node metastasis, poor differentiation, and absence of adjuvant chemotherapy as independent OS risk factors. The OS rate was significantly lower in the high AAC group than in the low AAC group.

CONCLUSION

The AAC volume may serve as a preoperative prognostic indicator for patients with pancreatic cancer.

Association of Life's Essential 8 with abdominal aortic calcification and mortality among middle-aged and older individuals

AIM

To assess the association of Life's Essential 8 (LE8) and the presence of abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) with mortality among middle-aged and older individuals.

METHODS

Participants aged older than 40 years were enrolled from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2014. AAC was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Mortality data were ascertained through linkage with the National Death Index until 31 December 2019. The LE8 score incorporates eight components: diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, sleep health, body mass index, blood lipids, blood glucose and blood pressure. The total LE8 score, an unweighted average of all components, was categorized into low (0-49), medium (50-79) and high (80-100) scores.

RESULTS

This study included 2567 individuals, with a mean LE8 score of 67.28 ± 0.48 and an AAC prevalence of 28.28%. Participants with low LE8 scores showed a significantly higher prevalence of AAC (odds ratio = 2.12 [1.12-4.19]) compared with those with high LE8 scores. Over a median 6-year follow-up, there were 222 all-cause deaths, and 55 cardiovascular deaths occurred. Participants with AAC had an increased risk of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.17 [1.60-2.95]) and cardiovascular (HR = 2.35 [1.40-3.93]) mortality. Moreover, individuals with AAC and low or medium LE8 scores exhibited a 137% (HR = 2.37 [1.58-3.54]) and 119% (HR = 2.19 [1.61-2.99]) higher risk of all-cause mortality, as well as a 224% (HR = 3.24 [1.73-6.04]) and 125% (HR = 2.25 [1.24-4.09]) increased risk of cardiovascular mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The LE8 score correlates with AAC prevalence in middle-aged and older individuals and serves as a valuable tool for evaluating the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in individuals with AAC.

Association between the atherogenic index of plasma and abdominal aortic calcification in adults: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) index is an important marker of insulin resistance and a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) is significantly associated with subclinical atherosclerotic disease. However, there are no studies that have examined the relationship between AIP index and AAC, so we investigated the potential association between them in the general population.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2013-2014). The association of AIP with AAC was estimated by multivariable regression analysis.

RESULTS

After adjusting for confounders, the odds of extensive AAC doubled per unit increase in the AIP index (OR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.05, 3.83; P = 0.035). The multivariable OR and 95% CI of the highest AIP index tertile compared with the lowest tertile was significantly different. (OR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.05, 2.83; P = 0.031). The subgroup analyses indicated that the association was consistent irrespective of age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, eGFR and hypercholesteremia.

CONCLUSIONS

The AIP index was independently associated with the presence of extensive AAC in the study population. Further studies are required to confirm this relationship.

Abdominal aortic calcification is an independent predictor of perioperative blood loss in posterior spinal fusion surgery

OBJECTIVE

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC), often found incidentally on lateral lumbar radiographs, is increasingly recognized for its association with adverse outcomes in spine surgery. As a marker of advanced atherosclerosis affecting cardiovascular dynamics, this study evaluates AAC's impact on perioperative blood loss in posterior spinal fusion (PSF).

METHODS

Patients undergoing PSF from March 2016 to July 2023 were included. Estimated blood loss (EBL) and total blood volume (TBV) were calculated. AAC was assessed on lateral lumbar radiographs according to the Kauppila classification. Predictors of the EBL-to-TBV ratio (%EBL/TBV) were examined via univariable and multivariable regression analyses, which adjusted for parameters such as hypertension and aspirin use.

RESULTS

A total of 199 patients (47.2% female) were analyzed. AAC was present in 106 patients (53.3%). AAC independently predicted %EBL/TBV, accounting for an increase in blood loss of 4.46% of TBV (95% CI 1.17-7.74, p = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to identify AAC as an independent predictor of perioperative blood loss in PSF. In addition to its link to degenerative spinal conditions and adverse postoperative outcomes, the relationship between AAC and increased blood loss warrants attention in patients undergoing PSF.

Associations Between Life's Essential 8 and Abdominal Aortic Calcification Among Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We aim to examine the associations between Life's Essential 8 (LE8), the recently updated measurement of cardiovascular health (CVH), and AAC among participants aged ≥40 years.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This population-based cross-sectional study used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2013 to 2014. AAC (AAC score>0) and severe AAC (AAC score>6) were quantified by the Kauppila score system. Multiple linear, multivariable logistic, and restricted cubic spline models were used to assess the associations. A total of 2369 participants were included with a mean AAC score of 1.41 (0.13). Participants in the high-cardiovascular-health group had lower AAC scores, lower prevalence of AAC, and lower prevalence of severe AAC. After the adjustment of potential confounders (age, sex, race and ethnicity, education levels, marital status, poverty income ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum creatinine, serum uric acid, serum phosphorus, and serum total calcium), higher cardiovascular health was significantly associated with lower risk of AAC. Meanwhile, elevated nicotine exposure score, blood glucose score, and blood pressure score within the LE8 components were significantly associated with lower risk of AAC. Also, nonlinear dose-response relationships were observed. Subgroup analyses (age strata, sex, poverty income ratio, education levels, marital status) indicated the inverse associations of LE8 and AAC were generally similar in different populations.

CONCLUSIONS

LE8 was negatively and nonlinearly related to the risk of AAC among middle-aged and older populations. Meanwhile, LE8 components should prioritize higher scores for nicotine exposure, blood glucose, and blood pressure evaluations.

The association of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and sedentary behaviour with abdominal aortic calcification

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The increasing prevalence of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases poses a significant challenge to global healthcare systems. Regular physical activity (PA) is recognized for its positive impact on cardiovascular risk factors. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), sedentary behavior (SB), and abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

METHODS

The study used data from NHANES participants aged 40 and above during the 2013-2014 cycle. AAC scores were assessed using the Kauppila scoring system, and MVPA and SB were self-reported. Sociodemographic variables were considered, and multivariable linear regression models were used to analyze associations between MVPA, SB, and AAC scores. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on age, sex, BMI, hypertension, and diabetes.

RESULTS

The study included 2843 participants. AAC prevalence was higher in older age groups, smokers, and those with diabetes or hypertension. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher AAC prevalence. Individuals engaged in any level of MVPA exhibited lower AAC rates compared to inactive individuals. Not engaging in occupational MVPA (β = 0.46, 95% confidence interval = 0.24‒0.67, p < .001) and prolonged SB (β = 0.28, 95% confidence interval = 0.04‒0.52, p = .023) were associated with higher AAC scores. However, no significant associations were found for transportation and leisure time MVPA. Subgroup analysis revealed age and hypertension as effect modifiers in the MVPA-AAC relationship.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the potential benefits of engaging in occupational MVPA and reducing SB in mitigating AAC scores, particularly among older individuals and those with hypertension.

The aortic calcification is a risk factor for colorectal anastomotic leakage

PURPOSE

The current pooling up analysis aimed to evaluate whether aortic calcification (AC) was a potential risk factor for anastomotic leakage (AL) after colorectal surgery.

METHODS

In this study, we searched studies in three databases including PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library on April 20, 2022. In order to investigate the association between AC and AL, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of AC were pooled up. Our study was performed with RevMan 5.3 according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement.

RESULTS

We finally enrolled eight studies involving 1955 patients for statistical analysis. As for all patients, we found that AC could significantly increase the risk of AL after surgery (HR = 2.31, I2 = 0%, 95%CI = 1.58 to 3.38, P < 0.01). In five studies including patients undergoing colorectal surgery (benign diseases and cancers), AC was also a risk factor for AL (HR = 3.30, I2 = 2%; 95%CI = 1.83 to 5.95, P < 0.01). In terms of the other three studies that only included CRC patients, there was still a correction between AC and AL (HR = 1.80, I2 = 0%, 95%CI = 1.10 to 2.96, P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

Patients with AC were more likely to develop AL after colorectal surgery. Moreover, subgroup analysis suggested that AC was a predictor for AL after CRC surgery.

Abdominal aortic calcification volume (AACV) is a predictive factor for postoperative complications associated with biliary tract cancer

PURPOSE

Curative surgical treatment of biliary tract cancer is highly invasive and involves postoperative complications. Abdominal aortic calcification is a parameter that is reportedly linked to systemic arteriosclerosis. We measured the abdominal aortic calcification volume (AACV), assessed the correlation between AACV and postoperative complications, and evaluated the clinical utility of AACV.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 97 patients (ampullary carcinoma, n = 21; distal bile duct cancer, n = 43; hilar bile duct cancer, n = 33). We assessed the calcification volume of the abdominal aorta from the renal artery ramification to the common iliac artery bifurcation. The correlation between AACV, clinical factors, and postoperative complications was evaluated.

RESULTS

The average AACV was 5.02 cm³, and the median AACV was 3.74 (range 0-27.4) cm³. The AACV was significantly related to age (P = 0.009), Brinkman index (P = 0.007), and history of cardiovascular disease (P = 0.015). The AACV was strongly correlated with postoperative complications (P < 0.001) and Clavien-Dindo grade > III postoperative complications (P < 0.001). The AACV was also correlated with pancreatic fistula in pancreatectomy cases (P < 0.001). A multivariate analysis revealed that the AACV was an independent predictor of postoperative complications.

CONCLUSION

The AACV was significantly associated with postoperative complications. The AACV could be used for the preoperative assessment of surgical risk.

The association between weight-adjusted-waist index and abdominal aortic calcification in adults aged ≥ 40 years: results from NHANES 2013-2014

The negative effects of obesity on the cardiovascular health have drawn much attention. Weight-adjusted-waist index (WWI) has been proved to reflect weight-independent centripetal obesity. However, the association between WWI and abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) has not been reported before. Using data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2014, we aimed to determine the relationship of WWI and AAC in adults aged ≥ 40 years. WWI was determined by dividing waist circumference by the square root of weight. AAC was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and quantified by Kauppila scores. Severe AAC (SAAC) was defined as an AAC score > 6. We utilized weighed multivariable logistic regression and generalized additive model to explore the independent association between WWI and AAC. Threshold effects were further calculated by two-piecewise linear regression model. 3082 participants were enrolled in our analysis, of which 48.2% were male. WWI was positively associated with AAC scores (β = 0.34, 95% CI 0.05-0.63) and exhibited a nonlinear relationship with SAAC. On the left of the breakpoint (WWI = 11.11), WWI and SAAC were positively associated (OR = 2.86, 95% CI 1.40-5.84), while no such relationship was found on the right (OR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.77-1.48). Our findings indicated that WWI may serve as a simple biomarker of AAC in US adults aged ≥ 40 years.

A correction score to compare aortic calcification in contrast enhanced and non-contrast measurements from computed tomography scans

BACKGROUND

Aortic wall calcification shows strong promise as a cardiovascular risk factor. While useful for visual enhancement of vascular tissue, enhancement creates heterogeneity between scans with and without contrast. We evaluated the relationship between aortic calcification in routine abdominal computed tomography scans (CT) with and without contrast.

METHODS

Inclusion was limited to those with abdominal CT-scans with and without contrast enhancement within 120 days. Analytic Morphomics, a semi-automated computational image processing system, was used to provide standardized, granular, anatomically indexed measurements of aortic wall calcification from abdominal CT-scans. Aortic calcification area (ACA) and aortic wall calcification percent (ACP) and were the outcomes of interest. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the relationship of aortic measurements. Models were further controlled for age and sex. Stratification of measurements by vertebral level was also performed.

RESULTS

A positive association was observed for non-contrast calcification in ACP β 0.74 (95% CI 0.72, 0.76) and ACA β 0.44 (95% 0.43, 0.45). Stratified results demonstrated the highest coefficient of determination at L2 for percent and L3 for area models [R² 0.91 (ACP) 0.74 (ACA)]. Adjusted lumber-level associations between non-contrast and contrast measurements ranged from (β 0.69-0.82) in ACP and (β 0.37-0.54) in ACA.

CONCLUSION

A straightforward correction score for comparison of abdominal aortic calcification measurements in contrast-enhanced and non-contrast scans is discussed. Correction of aortic calcification from CT scans can reduce scan heterogeneity and will be instrumental in creating larger cardiovascular cohorts as well as cardiovascular risk surveillance programs.

Assessing abdominal aortic calcifications before performing colocolic or colorectal anastomoses: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

Preoperative evaluation needs objective measurement of the risk of anastomotic leakage (AL). This study aimed to determine if cardiovascular disease, evaluated by abdominal aortic calcification (AAC), was associated with AL after colorectal anastomoses. We conducted a retrospective case-control study on patients who underwent colorectal anastomosis between 2012 and 2016 at Reims University Hospital (France). Abdominal aortic calcification was the main variable of measurement.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reviewed all patients who had a left-sided colocolic or a colorectal anastomosis, all patients with AL were cases; 2 controls, or 3 when possible, without AL were randomly selected and matched by operation type, pathology, and age. For multivariate analysis, 2 logistic regression models were tested, the first one used the calcification rate as a continuous variable and the second one used the calcification rate ≥ 5% as a qualitative variable.

RESULTS

Forty-five cases and 116 controls were included. In univariate analysis, the calcification rate and the percentage of patients with a calcification rate ≥5% were significantly higher in cases than in control groups (4.4 ± 5.5% vs. 2.5 ± 5.2%, odds ratio [OR] =1.6 95% CI: 1.1-2.5; n = 22, 49% and n = 34.3 3%, OR = 2.8 95% CI: 1.2-6.2). In multivariate models, calcification rate as a continuous variable and calcification rate ≥5% as qualitative variable were independent significant risk factors for AL (respectively, aOR = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1-3, P = 0.01; aOR = 3.2; 95% CI: 1.4-7.55, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

AAC ≥5% should alert on a higher risk of AL and should lead to discussion about the decision of performing an anastomosis.

Automated Measurements of Body Composition in Abdominal CT Scans Using Artificial Intelligence Can Predict Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

Body composition measures derived from already available electronic medical records (computed tomography [CT] scans) can have significant value, but automation of measurements is needed for clinical implementation. We sought to use artificial intelligence to develop an automated method to measure body composition and test the algorithm on a clinical cohort to predict mortality. We constructed a deep learning algorithm using Google's DeepLabv3+ on a cohort of de-identified CT scans (n = 12,067). To test for the accuracy and clinical usefulness of the algorithm, we used a unique cohort of prospectively followed patients with cirrhosis (n = 238) who had CT scans performed. To assess model performance, we used the confusion matrix and calculated the mean accuracy of 0.977 ± 0.02 (0.975 ± 0.018 for the training and test sets, respectively). To assess for spatial overlap, we measured the mean intersection over union and mean boundary contour scores and found excellent overlap between the manual and automated methods with mean scores of 0.954 ± 0.030, 0.987 ± 0.009, and 0.948 ± 0.039 (0.983 ± 0.013 for the training and test set, respectively). Using these automated measurements, we found that body composition features were predictive of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. On multivariate analysis, the addition of body composition measures significantly improved prediction of mortality for patients with cirrhosis over Model for End-Stage Liver Disease alone (P < 0.001). Conclusion: The measurement of body composition can be automated using artificial intelligence and add significant value for incidental CTs performed for other clinical indications. This is proof of concept that this methodology could allow for wider implementation into the clinical arena.

Vascular calcification and response to neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: an exploratory study

Purpose

Patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) may experience a clinical complete response (cCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) and opt for non-operative management. Pathological factors that relate to NACRT response have been well described. Host factors associated with response, however, are poorly defined. Calcification of the aortoiliac (AC) vessels supplying the rectum may influence treatment response.

Methods

Patients with LARC having NACRT prior to curative surgery at Glasgow Royal Infirmary (GRI) and St Mark’s hospital (SMH) between 2008 and 2016 were identified. AC was scored on pre-treatment CT imaging. NACRT response was assessed using pathologic complete response (pCR) rates, tumour regression grades (TRGs), the NeoAdjuvant Rectal score and T-/N-downstaging. Associations were assessed using Chi-squared, Mantel–Haenszel and Fisher’s exact tests.

Results

Of 231 patients from GRI, 79 (34%) underwent NACRT for LARC. Most were male (58%), aged over 65 (51%) with mid- to upper rectal tumours (56%) and clinical T3/4 (95%), node-positive (77%) disease. pCR occurred in 10 patients (13%). Trends were noted between higher clinical T stage and poor response by Royal College of Pathologist’s TRG (p = 0.021) and tumour height > 5 cm and poor response by Mandard TRG (0.068). In the SMH cohort, 49 of 333 (15%) patients underwent NACRT; 8 (16%) developed a pCR. AC was not associated with NACRT response in either cohort.

Conclusions

AC was not associated with NACRT response in this cohort. Larger contemporary cohorts are required to better assess host determinants of NACRT response and develop predictive models to improve patient selection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-021-03570-1.

Prognostic Value of Abdominal Aortic Calcification: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Background The prognostic importance of abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) viewed on noninvasive imaging modalities remains uncertain. Methods and Results We searched electronic databases (MEDLINE and Embase) until March 2018. Multiple reviewers identified prospective studies reporting AAC and incident cardiovascular events or all-cause mortality. Two independent reviewers assessed eligibility and risk of bias and extracted data. Summary risk ratios (RRs) were estimated using random-effects models comparing the higher AAC groups combined (any or more advanced AAC) to the lowest reported AAC group. We identified 52 studies (46 cohorts, 36 092 participants); only studies of patients with chronic kidney disease (57%) and the general older-elderly (median, 68 years; range, 60-80 years) populations (26%) had sufficient data to meta-analyze. People with any or more advanced AAC had higher risk of cardiovascular events (RR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.40-2.39), fatal cardiovascular events (RR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.44-2.39), and all-cause mortality (RR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.55-2.53). Patients with chronic kidney disease with any or more advanced AAC had a higher risk of cardiovascular events (RR, 3.47; 95% CI, 2.21-5.45), fatal cardiovascular events (RR, 3.68; 95% CI, 2.32-5.84), and all-cause mortality (RR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.95-2.97). Conclusions Higher-risk populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic kidney disease with AAC have substantially greater risk of future cardiovascular events and poorer prognosis. Providing information on AAC may help clinicians understand and manage patients' cardiovascular risk better.

Preoperative assessment of patient comorbidities before left colectomy: Comparison between ASA performance status scale and a new computed tomography physical status score

PURPOSE

To compare a newly developed preoperative computed tomography physical status (CT-PS) score with the American Society of Anesthesiology performance status (ASA-PS) scale in the assessment of patient preoperative health status and stratification of perioperative risk before left colectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Preoperative chest-abdomen-pelvis CT examinations of patients who were scheduled to undergo elective laparoscopic left colonic resection for cancer in two centers were reviewed by two radiologists blinded to clinical data for the presence of several key imaging features in order to assess general, cardiac, pulmonary, abdominal, renal, vascular and musculoskeletal status. CT examinations of patients from center 1 were used to build a CT-PS score to predict ASA-PS≥III. CT-PS score was further validated using an external cohort of patients from center 2.

RESULTS

During a 2-year period, 117 consecutive patients (63 men, 54 women; mean age, 65±13 [SD] years; age range: 53-90 years) who underwent laparoscopic left colectomy for cancer in center 1 (66 patients, building cohort) and center 2 (51 patients, validation cohort) were retrospectively included. Ninety-one percent of patients were ASA-PS 1-2. Overall postoperative morbidity was 23% and severe morbidity 12%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of CT-PS score was 0.968 (95% CI: 0.901-1.000) in the building cohort and 0.828 (95% CI: 0.693-0.963) in the validation cohort. The optimal thresholds yielded 87% (95% CI: 83-91%) sensitivity and 100% (95% CI: 91-100%) specificity in the building cohort and 75% (95% CI: 69-81%) sensitivity and 83% (95% CI: 77-88%) specificity in the validation cohort for the prediction of ASA-PS.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative chest-abdomen-pelvis CT thoroughly and wisely read is highly accurate to differentiate patients with ASA-PS I/II from those with ASA-PS III/IV before left colectomy.

Aortic calcification is associated with non-infective rather than infective postoperative complications following colorectal cancer resection: an observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Complications following colorectal cancer resection are common. The degree of aortic calcification (AC) on CT has been proposed as a predictor of complications, particularly anastomotic leak. This study assessed the relationship between AC and complications in patients undergoing colorectal cancer resection.

METHODS

Patients from 2008 to 2016 were retrospectively identified from a prospectively maintained database. Complications were classified using the Clavien-Dindo (CD) scale. Calcification was quantified on preoperative CT by visual assessment of the number of calcified quadrants in the proximal and distal aorta. Scores were grouped into categories: none, minor (< median AC score) and major (> median AC score). The relationship between clinicopathological characteristics and complications was assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 657 patients, 52% had proximal AC (> median score (1)) and 75% had distal AC (> median score (4)). AC was more common in older patients and smokers. Higher burden of AC was associated with non-infective complications (proximal AC 28% vs 16%, p = 0.004, distal AC 26% vs 14% p = 0.001) but not infective complications (proximal AC 28% vs 29%, p = 0.821, distal AC 29% vs 23%, p = 0.240) or anastomotic leak (proximal AC 6% vs 4%, p = 0.334, distal AC 7% vs 3%, p = 0.077). Independent predictors of complications included open surgery (OR 1.99, 95%CI 1.43-2.79, p = 0.001), rectal resection (OR 1.51, 95%CI 1.07-2.12, p = 0.018) and smoking (OR 2.56, 95%CI 1.42-4.64, p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that high levels of AC are associated with non-infective complications after colorectal cancer surgery and not anastomotic leak.

KEY POINTS

• Aortic calcification measured by visual quantification of the number of calcified quadrants at two aortic levels on preoperative CT is associated with clinical outcome following colorectal cancer surgery. • An increased burden of aortic calcification was associated with non-infective complications but not anastomotic leak. • Assessment of the degree of aortic calcification may help identify patients at risk of cardiorespiratory complications, improve preoperative risk stratification and assign preoperative strategies to improve fitness for surgery.

CT validation of SVC-RA junction location for pediatric central line placement: is vertebral bodies below the carina accurate?

PURPOSE

The key landmark for tip position of a central venous catheter (CVC) is the SVC-RA junction. In adults, localization of the SVC-RA junction may be assessed as a function of vertebral body units (VBU) below the carina during CVC placement. We investigated the relationship between the SVC-RA junction and the carina in children.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

584 CT scans of 0-18 years were analyzed. The carina was marked automatically by software while the SVC-RA junction and vertebrae were marked manually. The SVC-RA junction to carina (JC) distance was the primary study measurement reported in both VBU and mm.

RESULTS

The data show an average JC distance of 1.25 VBU for 0-1 year, 1.27 VBU for 1-4 years, 1.34 VBU for 4-9 years, 1.53 VBU for 9-15 years, and 1.64 VBU for 15-18 years. A positive relationship between weight and JC distance was also demonstrated.

CONCLUSION

JC distance is a useful predictor of SVC-RA junction location in children. Significant relationships were shown between JC distance and both age and weight. Due to small differences between age groups, however, average JC distance for all comers (1.48 VBU, 95% CI 0.7 - 2.3) can be used for SVC-RA junction identification in CVC placement.

Automated Measurements of Muscle Mass Using Deep Learning Can Predict Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

There is increasing recognition of the central role of muscle mass in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with liver disease. Muscle size can be extracted from computed tomography (CT) scans, but clinical implementation will require increased automation. We hypothesize that we can achieve this by using artificial intelligence.

METHODS

Using deep convolutional neural networks, we trained an algorithm on the Reference Analytic Morphomics Population (n = 5,268) and validated the automated methodology in an external cohort of adult kidney donors with a noncontrast CT scan (n = 1,655). To test the clinical usefulness, we examined its ability to predict clinical outcomes in a prospectively followed cohort of patients with clinically diagnosed cirrhosis (n = 254).

RESULTS

Between the manual and automated methodologies, we found excellent inter-rater agreement with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.957 (confidence interval 0.953-0.961, P < 0.0001) in the adult kidney donor cohort. The calculated dice similarity coefficient was 0.932 ± 0.042, suggesting excellent spatial overlap between manual and automated methodologies. To assess the clinical usefulness, we examined its ability to predict clinical outcomes in a cirrhosis cohort and found that automated psoas muscle index was independently associated with mortality after adjusting for age, gender, and child's classification (P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

We demonstrated that deep learning techniques can allow for automation of muscle measurements on clinical CT scans in a diseased cohort. These automated psoas size measurements were predictive of mortality in patients with cirrhosis showing proof of principal that this methodology may allow for wider implementation in the clinical arena.

A new aortoiliac calcification scoring system to predict grade C anastomotic leak following rectal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND

Aortoiliac calcification may be a surrogate marker of decreased visceral perfusion causing anastomotic leak (AL). The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive role of aortoiliac calcification for AL after rectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

We enrolled patients with primary rectal cancer who had restorative resection at our institution between January 2013 and December 2015. An aortoiliac calcification score was calculated as the sum of calcification scores at the infrarenal aorta (0: no, 1: ≤ 3 cm, 2: > 3 cm) and the common iliac arteries (0: no, 1: unilateral, 2: bilateral). AL was classified into three grades: grade A, requiring no intervention; grade B, requiring therapeutic intervention without re-laparotomy; and grade C, requiring re-laparotomy. Clinicopathological characteristics were analyzed to identify risk factors for AL.

RESULTS

There were 583 patients. Three-hundred forty-five (59.2%) had an aortoiliac calcification score ≥ 3, and 37 (6.3%) patients experienced AL, in 30 cases (5.1%) grade C AL. Patients with an aortoiliac calcification score ≥ 3 had a higher incidence of grade C AL (6.7% vs. 2.9%, p = 0.045). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that an aortoiliac calcification score ≥ 3 was an independent risk factor for grade C AL (odds ratio = 2.669, 95% confidence interval 1.066-6.686, p = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

Aortoiliac calcification may be considered a risk factor for grade C AL after rectal cancer surgery.

Morphomic calcification score from clinical CT scans: A proxy for coronary artery calcium

BACKGROUND

Screening of cardiovascular risk is essential in preventing cardiac events and quantifying asymptomatic risk. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores are a well-established in predicting cardiovascular risk, but require specialized computed tomography (CT) scans. Given the relationship of aortic calcification with cardiovascular risk, we sought to determine whether aortic calcification measures from incidental CT scans may approximate CAC.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective CT scans and corresponding volumetric CAC scores were obtained from patients at the University of Michigan. Aortic calcifications were measured in 166 scans. Correlations between a novel morphomic calcium (MC) percent score and CAC score were evaluated using Kendall's correlation coefficients. Comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves based on MC at different vertebral levels showed the highest predictive values for measures taken at L4.

RESULTS

MC at L4 shows promise in predicting CAC (AUC 0.90 in non-contrast scans, 0.70 in post-contrast scans). Proposed MC threshold are (4.21% for best sensitivity, B 12.93% for balance, C = 19.26% for specificity) in scans without contrast enhancement and (D = 7.31 for sensitivity, E 8.06 for specificity) in scans with contrast enhancement.

CONCLUSION

The MC score demonstrates promising potential in approximating CAC, particularly at the L4 level. The utilization of MC from incidental CT scans may be useful for assessment of cardiovascular risk. The ability to extract MC from contrast scans makes it especially valuable to patients receiving additional medical or surgical care. Recognition of high-risk patients would allow the use of indicated preventative strategies to avoid hard cardiovascular events in at risk patients.

Association Between Hospital Staffing Models and Failure to Rescue

OBJECTIVE

To identify hospital staffing models associated with failure to rescue (FTR) rates at low- and high-performing hospitals.

BACKGROUND

FTR is an important quality measure in surgical safety and is a metric that hospitals are seeking to improve. Specific unit-level determinants of FTR, however, remain unknown.

METHODS

Retrospective, observational study using data from the Michigan Quality Surgical Collaborative, which is a prospectively collected and clinically audited database in the state of Michigan. We identified 44,567 patients undergoing major general or vascular surgery from 2008 to 2012. Our main outcome measures were mortality, complications, and FTR rates.

RESULTS

Hospital rates of FTR across low, middle, and high tertiles were 8.9%, 16.5%, and 19.9%, respectively (P < 0.001). Low FTR hospitals tended to have a closed intensive care unit staffing model (56% vs 20%, P < 0.001) and a higher proportion of board-certified intensivists (88% vs 60%, P < 0.001) when compared to high FTR hospitals. There was also significantly more staffing of low FTR hospitals by hospitalists (85% vs 20%, P < 0.001) and residents (62% vs 40%, P < 0.01). Low FTR hospitals were noted to have more overnight coverage (75% vs 45%, P < 0.001) as well as a dedicated rapid response team (90% vs 60%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Low FTR hospitals had significantly more staffing resources than high FTR hospitals. Although hiring additional staff may be beneficial, there remain significant financial limitations for many hospitals to implement robust staffing models. Thus, our ongoing work seeks to improve rescue and implement effective staffing strategies within these constraints.

The Aortic Calcification Index is a risk factor associated with anastomotic leakage after anterior resection of rectal cancer

AIM

Anastomotic leakage (AL) is one of the most feared postoperative complications after anterior resection (AR) of rectal cancer. An adequate blood supply at the anastomotic site is regarded as a prerequisite for healing. We hypothesize that the Aortic Calcification Index (ACI) might reflect the severity of atherosclerosis in patients, and thereby be a risk factor for AL.

METHOD

AL was investigated retrospectively according to the definition of the International Study Group of Rectal Cancer in 423 rectal cancer patients who underwent anterior rectal resection. The ACI was measured by preoperative abdominal CT scan. The cross-section of the aorta was evenly divided into 12 sectors, the number of calcified sectors was counted as the calcification score of each slice. Lasso logistic regression and multivariate regression analysis were used to identify risk factors for AL.

RESULTS

The percentage of AL after AR was 7.8% (33/423); the mortality of patients who sustained a leak was 3.0% (1/33). Patients with a high ACI had a significantly higher percentage of AL than patients with low ACI (11.2% vs 5.6%, P = 0.04). Among patients with AL, a higher ACI was associated with greater severity of AL (the ACI of patients with grade A leakage, grade B leakage and grade C leakage was 0.5% ± 0.2%, 11.5% ± 9.2% and 24.2% ± 21.7%, respectively; P = 0.008). After risk adjustment, multivariate regression analysis showed that a higher ACI was an independent risk factor for AL (OR 2.391, P = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

A high ACI might be an important prognostic factor for AL after AR for rectal cancer. Confirmatory studies are required.

The relationship between aortic calcification and anastomotic leak following gastrointestinal resection: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Anastomotic leak (AL) is a significant complication of gastrointestinal (GI) surgery. Impaired perfusion of the anastomosis is thought to play an important role. The degree of aortic calcification (AC) visible on preoperative CT imaging may be associated with an increased risk of AL following GI resection. This review assessed the relationship between AC and AL in patients undergoing GI resection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane library were systematically searched between 1946 and 2019. Relevant keywords were grouped to form a sensitive search strategy: surgical procedure (e.g. digestive system surgical procedure), calcification (e.g. vascular calcification, calcium score) and outcome (e.g. anastomotic leak). Studies assessing the degree of AC on preoperative imaging in relation to AL in adult patients requiring resection and anastomosis were included. The quality of each study was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Bias was assessed using the RevMan risk of bias tool.

RESULTS

Nine observational studies were included: four in patients undergoing oesophageal resection (n = 1446) and five in patients undergoing colorectal resection (n = 556). AL occurred in 20% of patients following oesophagectomy and 14% of patients following colorectal resection. Adjustment for relevant confounders was limited in most studies. Two studies reported a relationship between the degree of AC and AL in patients undergoing oesophagectomy, independent of age and comorbidity. One study reported an association between AC and AL following colorectal resection, while three studies reported higher calcium scores in the iliac arteries of patients who developed colorectal AL. Overall study quality was moderate to good using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Detection and reporting bias was evident in the studies examining AL following colorectal resection.

CONCLUSION

The current evidence suggests that the degree of AC may be associated with the development of AL, in particular in patients undergoing oesophagectomy. Further prospective data with adequate adjustment for confounders are required.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018081128.

Serum Alkaline Phosphatase as a Predictor of Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Complications after Lumbar Spinal Fusion Surgery in Elderly: A Retrospective Study

We retrospectively enrolled 1395 patients aged > 65 years undergoing posterior lumbar spinal fusion surgery and classified them into tertiles based on serum Alkaline Phosphatase (ALP) levels (<63, 63–79, >79 IU/L). The primary outcome was the incidence of 30-day major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; composite endpoint defined as the occurrence of ≥1 of the following events: new-onset myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular mortality). The incidence of the composite endpoint was the highest in the third serum ALP tertile (0.4% vs. 0.2% vs. 2.2% in the first, second, and third tertile, respectively, p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis showed that the third serum ALP tertile was an independent predictor of the composite endpoint of MACCE (odds ratio 4.507, 95% confidence interval 1.378–14.739, p = 0.013). The optimal cut-off value of preoperative serum ALP showing the best discriminatory capacity to predict postoperative MACCE (measured by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis) was 83 IU/L (area under curve 0.694, 95% confidence interval 0.574–0.813, p = 0.016). Preoperative serum ALP levels were independently associated with the composite endpoint of postoperative 30-days MACCE. We suggest that serum ALP can be used as a biomarker to predict cardiac and cerebrovascular complications following lumbar spinal fusion surgery in elderly patients.

Body Composition Predicts Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization

PURPOSE

The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is often uncertain. We aimed to utilize analytic morphomics, a high-throughput imaging analysis, to assess if body composition is predictive of post-TACE survival.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We included patients from a single center (Ann Arbor VA)who had TACE as the primary treatment forHCC and had a pre-treatment computed tomography scans. Univariate analysis and multivariate conditional inference tree analysis were utilized to identify the morphomic characteristics predictive of 1-year survival. Results were validated in an external cohort(University of MichiganHealth System) ofHCC patientswho underwent TACE as their primary treatment.

RESULTS

In the 75 patients in the derivation cohort, median survival was 439 (interquartile range, 377 to 685) days from receipt of TACE, with 1-year survival of 61%. Visceral fat density (VFD) was the only morphomic factor predictive of overall and 1-year survival (p < 0.001). Patients with VFD above the 56th percentile had a 1-year survival of 39% versus 78% for those below the 56th percentile. VFD also correlated with 1-year survival in the external validation cohort (44% vs. 72%, p < 0.001). In a secondary analysis, patients with higher VFD were significantly more likely to experience hepatic decompensation after TACE (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

VFD served as an objective predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TACE, possibly through its ability to predict hepatic decompensation. VFD may serve as a radiographic biomarker in predicting TACE outcomes.

Personalized medicine: Enhancing our understanding of pediatric growth with analytic morphomics

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Analytic morphomics is being used to identify 3-D biologic measures with superior clinical utility and risk stratification over traditional factors such as age, height, and weight. The purpose of this study is to define age and gender specific Pediatric Reference Analytic Morphomics Population (PRAMP™) growth charts.

METHODS

This retrospective study population contains 2591 individual CT scans of a normative reference population of males and females (1-20years old). Growth curves were constructed at the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th quantiles for morphomic variables, including psoas muscle area, trabecular bone density, and visceral fat area by age and gender.

RESULTS

Total psoas muscle area increases over time until late adolescence. Trabecular bone density remains stable until adolescence, decreases during adolescence, and increases in young adulthood. Visceral fat area increases over time with greater variation between the 5th and 95th percentile with increasing age.

CONCLUSIONS

The PRAMP™ data have been used to construct age- and sex-specific reference growth curves. This may be used to better define "abnormal" in efforts to create unique risk-categorization algorithms specific to particular clinical and global health investigations.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II.

Bone mineral density predicts posttransplant survival among hepatocellular carcinoma liver transplant recipients

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common indication for liver transplantation (LT). Recent data suggest that body composition features strongly affect post-LT mortality. We examined the impact of body composition on post-LT mortality in patients with HCC. Data on adult LT recipients who received Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception for HCC between February 29, 2002, and December 31, 2013, and who had a computed tomography (CT) scan any time 6 months prior to LT were reviewed (n = 118). All available CT scan Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine files were analyzed using a semiautomated high throughput methodology with algorithms programmed in MATLAB. Analytic morphomics measurements including dorsal muscle group (DMG) area, visceral and subcutaneous fat, and bone mineral density (BMD) were taken at the bottom of the eleventh thoracic vertebral level. Thirty-two (27%) patients died during the median follow-up of 4.4 years. The number of HCC lesions (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P < 0.001), BMD (HR = 0.90/Hounsfield units [HU]; P = 0.03), pre-LT locoregional therapy (HR = 0.14; P < 0.001), and donor age (HR = 1.05; P < 0.001) were the independent predictors of post-LT mortality. DMG area did not affect post-LT survival. In conclusion, in addition to number of HCC lesions and pre-LT locoregional therapy, low BMD, a surrogate for bone loss rather than DMG area, was independently associated with post-LT mortality in HCC patients. Bone loss may be an early marker of deconditioning that precedes sarcopenia and may affect transplant outcomes. Liver Transplantation 22 1092-1098 2016 AASLD.

Body Composition Features Predict Overall Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Existing prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have limitations. Analytic morphomics, a novel process to measure body composition using computational image-processing algorithms, may offer further prognostic information. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model for HCC patients using body composition features and objective clinical information.

METHODS

Using computed tomography scans from a cohort of HCC patients at the VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System between January 2006 and December 2013, we developed a prognostic model using analytic morphomics and routine clinical data based on multivariate Cox regression and regularization methods. We assessed model performance using C-statistics and validated predicted survival probabilities. We validated model performance in an external cohort of HCC patients from Parkland Hospital, a safety-net health system in Dallas County.

RESULTS

The derivation cohort consisted of 204 HCC patients (20.1% Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification (BCLC) 0/A), and the validation cohort had 225 patients (22.2% BCLC 0/A). The analytic morphomics model had good prognostic accuracy in the derivation cohort (C-statistic 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.89) and external validation cohort (C-statistic 0.75, 95% CI 0.68-0.82). The accuracy of the analytic morphomics model was significantly higher than that of TNM and BCLC staging systems in derivation (P<0.001 for both) and validation (P<0.001 for both) cohorts. For calibration, mean absolute errors in predicted 1-year survival probabilities were 5.3% (90% quantile of 7.5%) and 7.6% (90% quantile of 12.5%) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Body composition features, combined with readily available clinical data, can provide valuable prognostic information for patients with newly diagnosed HCC.

Colorectal anastomotic leakage can be predicted by abdominal aortic calcification on preoperative CT scans: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

There have been no solid data regarding whether patients with aortic calcification (AC) who have undergone colorectal surgery are at increased risk for anastomotic leakage. Our study aim to investigate the impact of AC on anastomotic leakage (AL) and postoperative morbidity after colorectal resection.

METHODS

This was a cohort study of 60 patients who were prospectively registered in a database. We evaluated the relationship between an aortic calcification score (ACS), measured on preoperative computed tomography (CT) imaging, and surgical complications in patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

RESULTS

ACS was strongly correlated with mortality rate. All three of the deceased patients were in the ACS-2 group (5%; P=0.021). The rate of AL was positively correlated with ACS; no leakage was found cases of ACS-0, with a rate of 18% in cases of ACS-1 and 44% in cases of ACS-2 (P=0.022). The consequences of AL were more serious according to the grade of ACS.

DISCUSSION

This study suggested that aortic calcification score is correlated with surgical outcomes, particularly anastomosis leakage, after colorectal surgery. These findings could provide useful tools for adapting surgical strategies by delaying colorectal anastomosis in high-risk patients.

Both pelvic radiography and lateral abdominal radiography correlate well with coronary artery calcification measured by computed tomography in hemodialysis patients: A cross-sectional study

Introduction Lateral abdominal radiograph is suggested as an alternative to coronary artery computed tomography (CT) in evaluating vascular calcification. Simple scoring systems including pelvic radiograph scoring and abdominal scoring system were utilized to study their correlation with coronary artery calcification. Methods In 106 MHD patients, coronary artery CT, lateral abdominal, and pelvic radiograph were taken. The Agatston scoring system was applied to evaluate the degree of coronary artery calcification which was categorized according to Agatston coronary artery calcification score (CACS) ≥ 30, ≥100, ≥400, and ≥1000. Abdominal aortic calcification was scored by 4-scored and 24-scored systems. Pelvic artery calcification was scored by a 4-scored system. Sensitivities and specificities of abdominal aortic calcification scores and pelvic artery calcification scores to predict different categories of coronary artery calcification were analyzed. We studied the diagnostic capability of abdominal aorta calcification and pelvic artery calcification to predict different CACS categories by calculating likelihood ratios. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the area under the curve for each of these testing procedures. Findings The prevalence was 48(45.3%), 15 (14.2%), 11 (10.4%), 11 (10.4%), and 11 (10.4%) for CACs > 0, ≥30, ≥100, ≥400, and ≥1000, respectively. The degree of CACs was positively correlated with patient age, prevalence of diabetes, abdominal aorta scores, and pelvic calcification scores. The areas under the curves for different CACS by all X-ray scoring systems were above 0.70 except pelvic 4-scored system for diagnosing CACS ≥30, without significant difference (P > 0.05). Discussion Both lateral abdominal and pelvic plain radiographs were demonstrated as acceptable alternatives to CT in evaluating vascular calcification.

Clinical registries and quality measurement in surgery: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Surgical clinical registries provide clinical information with the intent of measuring and improving quality. This study aimed to describe how surgical clinical registries have been used to measure surgical quality, the reported findings, and the limitations of registry measurements.

METHODS

Medline, CINAHL, and Cochrane were queried for English articles with the terms: "registry AND surgery AND quality." Eligibility criteria were studies explicitly assessing quality measurement with registries as the primary data source. Studies were abstracted to identify registries, define registry structure, uses for quality measurement, and limitations of the measurements used.

RESULTS

A total of 111 studies of 18 registries were identified for data abstraction. Two registries were financed privately, and 5 registries were financed by a governmental organization. Across registries, the most common uses of process measures were for monitoring providers and as platforms for quality improvement initiatives. The most common uses of outcome measures were to improve quality modeling and to identify preoperative risk factors for poor outcomes. Eight studies noted improvements in risk-adjusted mortality with registry participation; one found no change. A major limitation is bias from context and means of data collection threatening internal validity of registry quality measurement. Conversely, the other major limitation is the cost of participation, which threatens the external validity of registry quality measurement.

CONCLUSION

Clinical registries have advanced surgical quality definition, measurement, and modeling as well as having served as platforms for local initiatives for quality improvement. The implication of this finding is that subsidizing registry participation may improve data validity as well as engage providers in quality improvement.

Use of analytic morphomics of liver, spleen, and body composition to identify patients at risk for cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A diagnosis of cirrhosis can be made on the basis of findings from imaging studies, but these are subjective. Analytic morphomics uses computational image processing algorithms to provide precise and detailed measurements of organs and body tissues. We investigated whether morphomic parameters can be used to identify patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In a retrospective study, we performed analytic morphomics on data collected from 357 patients evaluated at the University of Michigan from 2004 to 2012 who had a liver biopsy within 6 months of a computed tomography scan for any reason. We used logistic regression with elastic net regularization and cross-validation to develop predictive models for cirrhosis, within 80% randomly selected internal training set. The other 20% data were used as internal test set to ensure that model overfitting did not occur. In validation studies, we tested the performance of our models on an external cohort of patients from a different health system.

RESULTS

Our predictive models, which were based on analytic morphomics and demographics (morphomics model) or analytic morphomics, demographics, and laboratory studies (full model), identified patients with cirrhosis with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of 0.91 and 0.90, respectively, compared with 0.69, 0.77, and 0.76 for aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio, Lok Score, and FIB-4, respectively, by using the same data set. In the validation set, our morphomics model identified patients who developed cirrhosis with AUROC value of 0.97, and the full model identified them with AUROC value of 0.90.

CONCLUSIONS

We used analytic morphomics to demonstrate that cirrhosis can be objectively quantified by using medical imaging. In a retrospective analysis of multi-protocol scans, we found that it is possible to identify patients who have cirrhosis on the basis of analyses of preexisting scans, without significant additional risk or cost.

Morphometric age and surgical risk

BACKGROUND

A cornerstone of a surgeon's clinical assessment of suitability for major surgery is best described as the "eyeball test." Preoperative imaging may provide objective measures of this subjective assessment by calculating a patient's morphometric age. Our hypothesis is that morphometric age is a surgical risk factor distinct from chronologic age and comorbidity and correlates with surgical mortality and length of stay.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study within a large academic medical center. Using novel analytic morphomic techniques on preoperative CT scans, a morphometric age was assigned to a random sample of patients having inpatient general and vascular abdominal surgery from 2006 to 2011. The primary outcomes for this study were postoperative mortality (1-year) and length of stay (LOS).

RESULTS

The study cohort (n = 1,370) was stratified into tertiles based on morphometric age. The postoperative risk of mortality was significantly higher in the morphometric old age group when compared with the morphometric middle age group (odds ratio 2.42, 95% CI 1.52 to 3.84, p < 0.001). Morphometric old age patients were predicted to have a LOS 4.6 days longer than the morphometric middle age tertile. Similar trends were appreciated when comparing morphometric middle and young age tertiles. Chronologic age correlated poorly with these outcomes. Furthermore, patients in the chronologic middle age tertile found to be of morphometric old age had significantly inferior outcomes (mortality 21.4% and mean LOS 13.8 days) compared with patients in the chronologic middle age tertile found to be of morphometric young age (mortality 4.5% and mean LOS 6.3 days, p < 0.001 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative imaging can be used to assign a morphometric age to patients, which accurately predicts mortality and length of stay.