Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem

The productivity-stability trade-off in global food systems

Historically, humans have managed food systems to maximize productivity. This pursuit has drastically modified terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems globally by reducing species diversity and body size while creating very productive, yet homogenized, environments. Such changes alter the structure and function of ecosystems in ways that ultimately erode their stability. This productivity-stability trade-off has largely been ignored in discussions around global food security. Here, we synthesize empirical and theoretical literature to demonstrate the existence of the productivity-stability trade-off and argue the need for its explicit incorporation in the sustainable management of food systems. We first explore the history of human management of food systems, its impacts on average body size within and across species and food web stability. We then demonstrate how reductions in body size are symptomatic of a broader biotic homogenization and rewiring of food webs. We show how this biotic homogenization decompartmentalizes interactions among energy channels and increases energy flux within the food web in ways that threaten their stability. We end by synthesizing large-scale ecological studies to demonstrate the prevalence of the productivity-stability trade-off. We conclude that management strategies promoting landscape heterogeneity and maintenance of key food web structures are critical to sustainable food production.

Current species protection does not serve its porpoise-Knowledge gaps on the impact of pressures on the Critically Endangered Baltic Proper harbour porpoise population, and future recommendations for its protection

Successful management requires information on pressures that threaten a species and areas where conservation actions are needed. The Baltic Proper harbour porpoise population was first listed as Critically Endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature in 2008. Now, 16 years later, there is no change in conservation status despite ample conservation policy calling for its protection and an urgent need for management action to protect this population. Here, we provide an overview of the current status of the population, highlight knowledge gaps on the impact of pressures, and make recommendations for management of anthropogenic activities. Based on an exceeded limit for anthropogenic mortality, the high concentrations of contaminants in the Baltic Sea, combined with reductions in prey availability and increases in underwater noise, it is inferred that this population is likely still decreasing in size and conservation action becomes more urgent. As bycatch and unprotected underwater explosions result in direct mortality, they must be reduced to zero. Inputs of contaminants, waste, and existing and emerging noise sources should be minimised and regulated. Additionally, ecosystem-based sustainable management of fisheries is paramount in order to ensure prey availability, and maintain a healthy Baltic Sea. Stranding networks to routinely assess individuals for genetic population assignment and health need to be expanded, to identify rare samples from this population. Knowledge is still scarce on the population-level impact of each threat, along with the cumulative impact of multiple pressures on the population. However, the current knowledge and management instruments are sufficient to apply effective protection for the population now. While bycatch is the main pressure impacting this population, urgent conservation action is needed across all anthropogenic activities. Extinction of the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise population is a choice: decision-makers have the fate of this genetically and biologically distinct marine mammal population in their hands.

Good eutrophication status is a challenging goal for coastal waters

Our objective is to understand the effectiveness of local and international nutrient pollution mitigation efforts when targeting better water quality in the region's coastal waters. To this end, we developed an integrated modeling framework for the Archipelago Sea located in the Baltic Sea in Northern Europe, conducted what-if analyses for various ambition levels of nutrient abatement, and studied the long-term consequences at the sea basin scale. We demonstrate that in outer parts of the Archipelago Sea, a good eutrophication status can be achieved if the current internationally agreed policy goals for nutrient abatement are successfully met. In inner coastal areas, current goals for phytoplankton biomass could be reached only through extreme mitigation efforts in all polluting sectors and large-scale application of yet poorly tested ecological engineering methods. This result calls for carefully considering the relevance of current threshold values for phytoplankton and its role as a dominant indicator of good ecological status.

Multiyear analysis uncovers coordinated seasonality in stocks and composition of the planktonic food web in the Baltic Sea proper

The planktonic realm from bacteria to zooplankton provides the baseline for pelagic aquatic food webs. However, multiple trophic levels are seldomly included in time series studies, hampering a holistic understanding of the influence of seasonal dynamics and species interactions on food web structure and biogeochemical cycles. Here, we investigated plankton community composition, focusing on bacterio-, phyto- and large mesozooplankton, and how biotic and abiotic factors correlate at the Linnaeus Microbial Observatory (LMO) station in the Baltic Sea from 2011 to 2018. Plankton communities structures showed pronounced dynamic shifts with recurring patterns. Summarizing the parts of the planktonic microbial food web studied here to total carbon, a picture emerges with phytoplankton consistently contributing > 39% while bacterio- and large mesozooplankton contributed ~ 30% and ~ 7%, respectively, during summer. Cyanophyceae, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Proteobacteria were important groups among the prokaryotes. Importantly, Dinophyceae, and not Bacillariophyceae, dominated the autotrophic spring bloom whereas Litostomatea (ciliates) and Appendicularia contributed significantly to the consumer entities together with the more traditionally observed mesozooplankton, Copepoda and Cladocera. Our findings of seasonality in both plankton composition and carbon stocks emphasize the importance of time series analyses of food web structure for characterizing the regulation of biogeochemical cycles and appropriately constraining ecosystem models.

Climate risks to fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas

Climate change is one of the most concerning topics in the Anthropocene. Increasing sea water temperature will trigger a series of ecological consequences, altering the various functions and services that marine ecosystems provide for humans. Fisheries, specifically, will likely face the most direct impact. China provides unparalleled catches with enormous and intensive fishing effort, and China Seas are suffering from significantly increasing water temperature. However, uncertainties in the impacts of climate change on fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas present challenges for the formulation of coping and adapting strategies. Here, we employed a climate risk assessment framework to evaluate the climate risks of fishing species and fisheries of various provinces in China in the past decade, aiming to benefit the development and prioritization of appropriate adaptation options to climate change. Results show that considering the water temperature in the 2010s, 20 % of fishing species in the China Seas have one-fourth of their habitats unsuitable, and the situation will become worse with future warming scenarios in the 2050s when nearly half of species will have at least one-fourth of their habitats no longer suitable. Integrating hazard, exposure and vulnerability, climate risks to fisheries feature heterogeneity among provinces. Climate risks to fisheries of northern provinces are characterized by low hazard and high exposure, while the southern counterparts are largely determined by high hazard and low exposure. Climate change is threatening fishing species and remarkably altering fishery patterns in China Seas. Shifting fishing targets, increasing fishing efficiency, raising catch diversity, and updating fishery-related industries would be effective steps to help fisheries adapt to climate change, and adaptation strategies need to be tailored considering local realities.

Niche partitioning between planktivorous fish in the pelagic Baltic Sea assessed by DNA metabarcoding, qPCR and microscopy

Marine communities undergo rapid changes related to human-induced ecosystem pressures. The Baltic Sea pelagic food web has experienced several regime shifts during the past century, resulting in a system where competition between the dominant planktivorous mesopredatory clupeid fish species herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and the rapidly increasing stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) population is assumed to be high. Here, we investigate diet overlap between these three planktivorous fishes in the Baltic Sea, utilizing DNA metabarcoding on the 18S rRNA gene and the COI gene, targeted qPCR, and microscopy. Our results show niche differentiation between clupeids and stickleback, and highlight that rotifers play an important role in this pattern, as a resource that is not being used by the clupeids nor by other zooplankton in spring. We further show that all the diet assessment methods used in this study are consistent, but also that DNA metabarcoding describes the plankton-fish link at the highest taxonomic resolution. This study suggests that rotifers and other understudied soft-bodied prey may have an important function in the pelagic food web and that the growing population of pelagic stickleback may be supported by the open feeding niche offered by the rotifers.

Deoxygenation impacts on Baltic Sea cod: Dramatic declines in ecosystem services of an iconic keystone predator

The intensified expansion of the Baltic Sea's hypoxic zone has been proposed as one reason for the current poor status of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, with repercussions throughout the food web and on ecosystem services. We examined the links between increased hypoxic areas and the decline in maximum length of Baltic cod, a demographic proxy for services generation. We analysed the effect of different predictors on maximum length of Baltic cod during 1978-2014 using a generalized additive model. The extent of minimally suitable areas for cod (oxygen concentration ≥ 1 ml l-1) is the most important predictor of decreased cod maximum length. We also show, with simulations, the potential for Baltic cod to increase its maximum length if hypoxic areal extent is reduced to levels comparable to the beginning of the 1990s. We discuss our findings in relation to ecosystem services affected by the decrease of cod maximum length.

Commercial fishery disturbance of the global ocean biological carbon sink

Plankton drive a major sink of carbon across the global oceans. Dead plankton, their faeces and the faeces of plankton feeders, form a huge rain of carbon sinking to the seabed and deep ocean, reducing atmospheric CO₂ levels and thus helping to regulate the climate. Any change in plankton communities, ecosystems or habitats will perturb this carbon sink, potentially increasing atmospheric CO₂ . Fishing is a major cause of ocean ecosystem disturbance affecting all trophic levels including plankton, but its potential impact on the carbon sink is unknown. As both fisheries and the carbon sink depend on plankton, there is spatial overlap of these fundamental ecosystem services. Here, we provide the first global maps of this spatial overlap. Using an upper quartile analysis, we show that 21% of the total upper ocean carbon sink (export) and 39% of fishing effort globally are concentrated in zones of intensive overlap, representing 9% of the ocean surface area. This overlap is particularly evident in the Northeast Atlantic suggesting this region should be prioritized in terms of research and conservation measures to preserve the high levels of sinking carbon. Small pelagic fish dominate catches here and globally, and their exploitation could reduce important faecal pellet carbon sinks and cause trophic cascades affecting plankton communities. There is an urgent need to recognize that, alongside climate change, fishing might be a critical influence on the ability of the ocean to sequester atmospheric CO₂ . Improved understanding of this influence, and how it will change with the climate, will be important for realizing a sustainable balance of the twin needs for productive fisheries and strong carbon sinks.

Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming

Natural systems can undergo critical transitions, leading to substantial socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. "Ecological resilience" has been proposed to describe the capacity of natural systems to absorb external perturbation and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. However, the mere application of ecological resilience in theoretical research and the lack of quantitative approaches present considerable obstacles for predicting critical transitions and understanding their mechanisms. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in the Northwestern Pacific are characterized by great biodiversity and productivity, as well as remarkable warming in recent decades. However, no information is available on the critical transitions and ecological resilience of LMEs in response to warming. Therefore, we applied an integrated resilience assessment framework to fisheries catch data from seven LMEs covering a wide range of regions, from tropical to subarctic, in the Northwestern Pacific to identify critical transitions, assess ecological resilience, and reconstruct folded stability landscapes, with a specific focus on the effects of warming. The results provide evidence of the occurrence of critical transitions, with fold bifurcation and hysteresis in response to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the seven LMEs. In addition, these LMEs show similarities and synchronies in structure variations and critical transitions forced by warming. Both dramatic increases in SST and small fluctuations at the corresponding thresholds may trigger critical transitions. Ecological resilience decreases when approaching the tipping points and is repainted as the LMEs shift to alternative stable states with different resilient dynamics. Folded stability landscapes indicate that the responses of LMEs to warming are discontinuous, which may be caused by the reorganization of LMEs as their sensitivity to warming changes. Our study clarifies the nonlinear responses of LMEs to anthropogenic warming and provides examples of quantifying ecological resilience in empirical systems at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales.

Predator biomass and vegetation influence the coastal distribution of threespine stickleback morphotypes

Intraspecific niche differentiation can contribute to population persistence in changing environments. Following declines in large predatory fish, eutrophication, and climate change, there has been a major increase in the abundance of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in the Baltic Sea. Two morphotype groups with different levels of body armor-completely plated and incompletely plated-are common in coastal Baltic Sea habitats. The morphotypes are similar in shape, size, and other morphological characteristics and live as one apparently intermixed population. Variation in resource use between the groups could indicate a degree of niche segregation that could aid population persistence in the face of further environmental change. To assess whether morphotypes exhibit niche segregation associated with resource and/or habitat exploitation and predator avoidance, we conducted a field survey of stickleback morphotypes, and biotic and abiotic ecosystem structure, in two habitat types within shallow coastal bays in the Baltic Sea: deeper central waters and shallow near-shore waters. In the deeper waters, the proportion of completely plated stickleback was greater in habitats with greater biomass of two piscivorous fish: perch (Perca fluviatilis) and pike (Esox lucius). In the shallow waters, the proportion of completely plated stickleback was greater in habitats with greater coverage of habitat-forming vegetation. Our results suggest niche segregation between morphotypes, which may contribute to the continued success of stickleback in coastal Baltic Sea habitats.

Harvesting forage fish can prevent fishing-induced population collapses of large piscivorous fish

Fisheries have reduced the abundances of large piscivores-such as gadids (cod, pollock, etc.) and tunas-in ecosystems around the world. Fisheries also target smaller species-such as herring, capelin, and sprat-that are important parts of the piscivores' diets. It has been suggested that harvesting of these so-called forage fish will harm piscivores. Multispecies models used for fisheries assessments typically ignore important facets of fish community dynamics, such as individual-level bioenergetics and/or size structure. We test the effects of fishing for both forage fish and piscivores using a dynamic, multitrophic, size-structured, bioenergetics model of the Baltic Sea. In addition, we analyze historical patterns in piscivore-biomass declines and fishing mortalities of piscivores and forage fish using global fish-stock assessment data. Our community-dynamics model shows that piscivores benefit from harvesting of their forage fish when piscivore fishing mortality is high. With substantial harvesting of forage fish, the piscivores can withstand higher fishing mortality. On the other hand, when piscivore fishing mortality is low, piscivore biomass decreases with more fishing of the forage fish. In accordance with these predictions, our statistical analysis of global fisheries data shows a positive interaction between the fishing mortalities of forage-fish stocks and piscivore stocks on the strength of piscivore-biomass declines. While overfishing of forage fish must be prevented, our study shows that reducing fishing pressures on forage fish may have unwanted negative side effects on piscivores. In some cases, decreasing forage-fish exploitation could cause declines, or even collapses, of piscivore stocks.

John M, Temming A, Diekmann R, Peters J, Floeter J, Sell AF, Herrmann JP, Gloe D, Schmidt JO, Hinrichsen HH, MÖllmann C. Predation risk triggers copepod small-scale behavior in the Baltic Sea

Predators not only have direct impact on biomass but also indirect, non-consumptive effects on the behavior their prey organisms. A characteristic response of zooplankton in aquatic ecosystems is predator avoidance by diel vertical migration (DVM), a behavior which is well studied on the population level. A wide range of behavioral diversity and plasticity has been observed both between- as well as within-species and, hence, investigating predator-prey interactions at the individual level seems therefore essential for a better understanding of zooplankton dynamics. Here we applied an underwater imaging instrument, the video plankton recorder (VPR), which allows the non-invasive investigation of individual, diel adaptive behavior of zooplankton in response to predators in the natural oceanic environment, providing a finely resolved and continuous documentation of the organisms' vertical distribution. Combing observations of copepod individuals observed with the VPR and hydroacoustic estimates of predatory fish biomass, we here show (i) a small-scale DVM of ovigerous Pseudocalanus acuspes females in response to its main predators, (ii) in-situ observations of a direct short-term reaction of the prey to the arrival of the predator and (iii) in-situ evidence of pronounced individual variation in this adaptive behavior with potentially strong effects on individual performance and ecosystem functioning.

Functional shifts in estuarine zooplankton in response to climate variability

Functional traits are becoming more common in the analysis of marine zooplankton community dynamics associated with environmental change. We used zooplankton groups with common functional properties to assess long-term trends in the zooplankton caused by certain environmental conditions in a highly eutrophicated gulf.Time series of zooplankton traits have been collected since the 1960s in the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea, and were analyzed using a combination of multivariate methods (principal coordinate analysis) and generalized additive models.One of the most significant changes was the considerable increase in the amount of the zooplankton functional groups (FGR) in coastal springtime communities, and dominance shifts from more complex to simpler organism groups-cladocerans and rotifers.The results also show that functional trait organism complexity (body size) decreased considerably due to cladoceran and rotifer increase following elevated water temperature. Salinity and oxygen had negligible effects on the zooplankton community.

Mechanisms behind bottom-up effects: eutrophication increases fecundity by shortening the interspawning interval in stickleback

Anthropogenic eutrophication is altering aquatic environments by promoting primary production. This influences the population dynamics of consumers through bottom-up effects, but the underlying mechanisms and pathways are not always clear. To evaluate and mitigate effects of eutrophication on ecological communities, more research is needed on the underlying factors. Here we show that anthropogenic eutrophication increases population fecundity in the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) by increasing the number of times females reproduce—lifetime fecundity—rather than instantaneous fecundity. When we exposed females to nutrient-enriched waters with enhanced algal growth, their interspawning interval shortened but the size of their egg clutches, or the size of their eggs, did not change. The shortening of the interspawning interval was probably caused by higher food intake, as algae growth promotes the growth of preferred prey populations. Enhanced female lifetime fecundity could increase offspring production and, hence, influence population dynamics. In support of this, earlier studies show that more offspring are emerging in habitats with denser algae growth. Thus, our results stress the importance of considering lifetime fecundity, in addition to instantaneous fecundity, when investigating the impact of human-induced eutrophication on population processes. At a broader level, our results highlight the importance of following individuals over longer time spans when evaluating the pathways and processes through which environmental changes influence individual fitness and population processes.

Limited evidence for common interannual trends in Baltic Sea summer phytoplankton biomass

The Baltic Sea summer phytoplankton community plays an important role in biogeochemical cycling and in the transfer of energy through the food web via zooplankton. We aimed to improve the understanding of the degree to which large-scale versus local environmental dynamics regulate phytoplankton dynamics by analyzing time series at the Baltic Sea scale. We used dynamic factor analysis to study if there are common patterns of interannual variation that are shared (“common trends”) among summer phytoplankton total and class-level biomass time series observed across Baltic Sea latitudinal gradients in salinity and temperature. We evaluated alternative hypotheses regarding common trends among summer phytoplankton biomass: Baltic Sea-wide common trends; common trends by geography (latitude and basin); common trends differing among functional groups (phytoplankton classes); or common trends driven by both geography and functional group. Our results indicated little support for a common trend in total summer phytoplankton biomass. At a finer resolution, classes had common trends that were most closely associated with the cryptophyte and cyanobacteria time series with patterns that differed between northern and southern sampling stations. These common trends were also very sensitive to two anomalous years (1990, 2008) of cryptophyte biomass. The Baltic Sea Index, a regional climate index, was correlated with two common class trends that shifted in mean state around the mid-1990s. The limited coherence in phytoplankton biomass variation over time despite known, large-scale, ecosystem shifts suggests that stochastic dynamics at local scales limits the ability to observe common trends at the scale of monitoring data collection.

Immunosuppression of aquatic organisms exposed to elevated levels of manganese: From global to molecular perspective

Manganese (Mn) is an essential trace metal for all organisms. However, in excess it causes toxic effects but the impact on aquatic environments has so far been highly overlooked. Manganese is abundant both in costal and deep sea sediments and becomes bioavailable (Mn²⁺) during redox conditions. This is an increasing phenomenon due to eutrophication-induced hypoxia and aggravated through the ongoing climate change. Intracellular accumulation of Mn²⁺ causes oxidative stress and activates evolutionary conserved pathways inducing apoptosis and cell cycle arrest. Here, studies are compiled on how excess of dissolved Mn suppresses the immune system of various aquatic organisms by adversely affecting both renewal of immunocytes and their functionality, such as phagocytosis and activation of pro-phenoloxidase. These impairments decrease the animal's bacteriostatic capacity, indicating higher susceptibility to infections. Increased distribution of pathogens, which is believed to accompany climate change, requires preserved immune sentinel functions and Mn can be crucial for the outcome of host-pathogen interactions.

Linking consumer physiological status to food-web structure and prey food value in the Baltic Sea

Declining physiological status in marine top consumers has been observed worldwide. We investigate changes in the physiological status and population/community traits of six consumer species/groups in the Baltic Sea (1993-2014), spanning four trophic levels and using metrics currently operational or proposed as indicators of food-web status. We ask whether the physiological status of consumers can be explained by food-web structure and prey food value. This was tested using partial least square regressions with status metrics for gray seal, cod, herring, sprat and the benthic predatory isopod Saduria as response variables, and abundance and food value of their prey, abundance of competitors and predators as predictors. We find evidence that the physiological status of cod, herring and sprat is influenced by competition, predation, and prey availability; herring and sprat status also by prey size. Our study highlights the need for management approaches that account for species interactions across multiple trophic levels.

Temporal Trends (1981-2013) of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances and Total Fluorine in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua)

Temporal trends from 1981 to 2013 of 28 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) were investigated in liver tissue of cod (Gadus morhua) sampled near southeast Gotland, in the Baltic Sea. A total of 10 PFASs were detected, with ∑₂₈ PFAS geometric mean concentrations ranging from 6.03 to 23.9 ng/g ww. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant PFAS, which increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Most long-chain perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids increased at rates of 3.9 to 7.3% per year except for perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), which did not change significantly over time. The perfluoroalkyl acid precursors perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) and 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonic acid were detected, of which the former (FOSA) declined at a rate of -4.4% per year, possibly reflecting its phase-out starting in 2000. An alternate time trend analysis from 2000 to 2013 produced slightly different results, with most compounds increasing at slower rates compared to the entire study period. An exception was perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), increasing at a faster rate of 3.7% measured from 2000 on, compared to the 3.0% per year measured starting from 1981. Analysis of the total fluorine content of the samples revealed large amounts of unidentified fluorine; however, its composition (organic or inorganic) remains unclear. Significant negative correlations were found between concentrations of individual PFASs (with the exception of PFOS) and liver somatic index. In addition, body length was negatively correlated with PFOA and perfluorononanoate, but positively correlated with perfluorododecanoate (PFDoDA) and FOSA. Additional studies on endocrine, immunological, and metabolic effects of PFAS in marine fish are essential to assess the environmental risk of these substances. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:300-309. © 2019 SETAC.

Deficiency syndromes in top predators associated with large-scale changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Vitamin B₁ (thiamin) deficiency is an issue periodically affecting a wide range of taxa worldwide. In aquatic pelagic systems, thiamin is mainly produced by bacteria and phytoplankton and is transferred to fish and birds via zooplankton, but there is no general consensus on when or why this transfer is disrupted. We focus on the occurrence in salmon (Salmo salar) of a thiamin deficiency syndrome (M74), the incidence of which is highly correlated among populations derived from different spawning rivers. Here, we show that M74 in salmon is associated with certain large-scale abiotic changes in the main common feeding area of salmon in the southern Baltic Sea. Years with high M74 incidence were characterized by stagnant periods with relatively low salinity and phosphate and silicate concentrations but high total nitrogen. Consequently, there were major changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton, with, e.g., increased abundances of Cryptophyceae, Dinophyceae, Diatomophyceae and Euglenophyceae and Acartia spp. during high M74 incidence years. The prey fish communities also had increased stocks of both herring and sprat in these years. Overall, this suggests important changes in the entire food web structure and nutritional pathways in the common feeding period during high M74 incidence years. Previous research has emphasized the importance of the abundance of planktivorous fish for the occurrence of M74. By using this 27-year time series, we expand this analysis to the entire ecosystem and discuss potential mechanisms inducing thiamin deficiency in salmon.

Delayed effects of prey fish quality and winter temperature during the birth year on adult size and reproductive rate of Baltic grey seals

Environmental conditions of mammalian juveniles may have delayed effects on their life histories and fitness, such as body size or reproductive rate later in their lives. In the present study, we tested this hypothesis on Baltic grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and examined (1) the possible effects of prey fish quality and winter temperature on body condition of grey seal pups of both sexes and (2) the possible delayed impacts of pup environment on the body size and birth rate of adult grey seals. Body condition (blubber thickness) of especially female pups in April–May correlated negatively with winter temperatures, and body condition of male pups correlated positively with prey fish quality (herring Clupea harengus and sprat Sprattus sprattus weight). Males reached the asymptotic length at the age of 10.3 years, and body length of adult males (≥ 10 years old) was positively related to herring and sprat weight in their birth year. Females reached the asymptotic length at the age of 5.9 years. Birth rate of females (age 7–24 years) was negatively related to winter temperature in their birth year. We conclude that both changes in prey fish quality and climate may affect body condition of pups and thus also cause delayed effects on adult fitness: body size and reproductive rate of Baltic grey seals.

The necessity of a holistic approach when managing marine mammal-fisheries interactions: Environment and fisheries impact are stronger than seal predation

Seal populations are recovering in many regions around the world and, consequently, they are increasingly interacting with fisheries. We used an Ecopath with Ecosim model for the offshore Central Baltic Sea to investigate the interactions between the changes in fish stocks and grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) population under different fishing and environmental scenarios for the twenty-first century. The assumed climate, eutrophication and cod (Gadus morhua) fisheries scenarios modified seal predation impacts on fish. Fish biomass and catches are more affected by fishing mortality and the environment than by seal predation. Our results highlight that the impacts of the increasing seal population on lower trophic levels are complex; thus, we emphasize the need to consider a range of possible ecosystem contexts when evaluating potential impacts of top predators. Finally, we suggest that an increasing seal population is not likely to hinder the preservation of the main Baltic fish stocks.

Past and Current Trends of Coastal Predatory Fish in the Baltic Sea with a Focus on Perch, Pike, and Pikeperch

Coastal predatory fish are of key importance for the provisioning of ecosystem services in the Baltic Sea. Worldwide, however, there has been a general and sharp decline in predatory fish populations, in turn threatening the viability and function of marine ecosystems. On the basis of the literature, the past (data until the 2000s) and current (data until early and mid 2010s) trends in abundance of coastal predatory fish in the Baltic Sea are reviewed in this paper. Potentially important impacting factors behind the temporal development of the populations and measures to strengthen and restore them are also discussed. Available data from coastal fish monitoring programs suggest a stable or increasing abundance of coastal predatory fish as a functional group and for the species perch in the majority of areas assessed in the Baltic Sea. For pike and pikeperch, data to support assessments is scarce, but suggest substantial declines in the abundance of both species in most assessed areas. The impacting factors behind these patterns vary between species and areas, but include climate, habitat exploitation, fishing, and species-interactions in the coastal food web. Measures to restore and support coastal predatory fish communities should follow an ecosystem-based approach to management and include efforts to regulate fisheries sectors in combination with habitat protection and restoration.

Links between fish abundance and ocean biogeochemistry as recorded in marine sediments

Fish populations are linked to ocean biogeochemistry by their reliance on primary production for food, and dissolved oxygen to breathe. It is also possible that marine fish modify biogeochemical dynamics, as do freshwater fish, through top-down trophic cascades, but there has been relatively little consideration of this possibility. This lack of consideration may reflect a lack of importance; alternatively, it may simply reflect the lack of appropriate observations with which to constrain such relationships. Here, we draw attention to the potential use of marine sediments as long-term simultaneous monitors of both fish abundance and marine biogeochemical dynamics. We compile published sediment proxy records of fish abundance from the west coasts of the Americas, and compare them with biogeochemical proxy measurements made at the same sites. Despite the challenges of using sediment records and the potential convolution of ecological and climatic signals, we find a small number of statistically significant relationships between fish debris and biogeochemical variables, at least some of which are likely to reflect causal relationships. Considering TOC, the most commonly-measured biogeochemical variable, some positive correlations with fish abundance are found, consistent with bottom-up control of fish abundance by primary production, or a planktivore-herbivore-phytoplankton trophic cascade. Negative correlations are also found, which could reflect sedimentary processes, the influence of upwelling-driven oxygen and nutrient dynamics on primary production and fish populations, and/or impacts of fish stocks on carbon fluxes by altering the recycling of carbon within the water column. Although the number of available measurements is too small to draw strong conclusions, the results point to plausible cases of bottom-up forcing, trophic cascades, and influence of dissolved oxygen concentrations on fish habitat.

Does bathymetry drive coastal whale shark (Rhincodon typus) aggregations?

BACKGROUND

The whale shark (Rhincodon typus) is known to aggregate in a number of coastal locations globally, however what causes these aggregations to form where they do is largely unknown. This study examines whether bathymetry is an important driver of coastal aggregation locations for R. typus through bathymetry's effect on primary productivity and prey availability. This is a global study taking into account all coastal areas within R. typus' range.

METHODS

R. typus aggregation locations were identified through an extensive literature review. Global bathymetric data were compared at R. typus aggregation locations and a large random selection of non-aggregation areas. Generalised linear models were used to assess which bathymetric characteristic had the biggest influence on aggregation presence.

RESULTS

Aggregation sites were significantly shallower than non-aggregation sites and in closer proximity to deep water (the mesopelagic zone) by two orders of magnitude. Slope at aggregation sites was significantly steeper than non-aggregation sites. These three bathymetric variables were shown to have the biggest association with aggregation sites, with up to 88% of deviation explained by the GLMs.

DISCUSSION

The three key bathymetric characteristics similar at the aggregation sites are known to induce upwelling events, increase primary productivity and consequently attract numerous other filter feeding species. The location of aggregation sites in these key areas can be attributed to this increased prey availability, thought to be the main reason R. typus aggregations occur, extensively outlined in the literature. The proximity of aggregations to shallow areas such as reefs could also be an important factor why whale sharks thermoregulate after deep dives to feed. These findings increase our understanding of whale shark behaviour and may help guide the identification and conservation of further aggregation sites.

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

A global mismatch in the protection of multiple marine biodiversity components and ecosystem services

The global loss of biodiversity threatens unique biota and the functioning and services of ecosystems essential for human wellbeing. To safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services, designating protected areas is crucial; yet the extent to which the existing placement of protection is aligned to meet these conservation priorities is questionable, especially in the oceans. Here we investigate and compare global patterns of multiple biodiversity components (taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional), ecosystem services and human impacts, with the coverage of marine protected areas across a nested spatial scale. We demonstrate a pronounced spatial mismatch between the existing degree of protection and all the conservation priorities above, highlighting that neither the world’s most diverse, nor the most productive ecosystems are currently the most protected ecosystems. Furthermore, we show that global patterns of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human impacts are poorly correlated, hence complicating the identification of generally applicable spatial prioritization schemes. However, a hypothetical “consensus approach” would have been able to address all these conservation priorities far more effectively than the existing degree of protection, which at best is only marginally better than a random expectation. Therefore, a holistic perspective is needed when designating an appropriate degree of protection of marine conservation priorities worldwide.

A cross-scale trophic cascade from large predatory fish to algae in coastal ecosystems

Trophic cascades occur in many ecosystems, but the factors regulating them are still elusive. We suggest that an overlooked factor is that trophic interactions (TIs) are often scale-dependent and possibly interact across spatial scales. To explore the role of spatial scale for trophic cascades, and particularly the occurrence of cross-scale interactions (CSIs), we collected and analysed food-web data from 139 stations across 32 bays in the Baltic Sea. We found evidence of a four-level trophic cascade linking TIs across two spatial scales: at bay scale, piscivores (perch and pike) controlled mesopredators (three-spined stickleback), which in turn negatively affected epifaunal grazers. At station scale (within bays), grazers on average suppressed epiphytic algae, and indirectly benefitted habitat-forming vegetation. Moreover, the direction and strength of the grazer-algae relationship at station scale depended on the piscivore biomass at bay scale, indicating a cross-scale interaction effect, potentially caused by a shift in grazer assemblage composition. In summary, the trophic cascade from piscivores to algae appears to involve TIs that occur at, but also interact across, different spatial scales. Considering scale-dependence in general, and CSIs in particular, could therefore enhance our understanding of trophic cascades.

Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions

Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO₂ . Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience.

Time-varying environmental control of phytoplankton in a changing estuarine system

Estuaries are among the most valuable aquatic systems by their services to human welfare. However, increasing human activities at the watershed along with the pressure of climate change are fostering the co-occurrence of multiple environmental drivers, and warn of potential negative impacts on estuaries resources. At present, no clear understanding of how coastal ecosystems will respond to the non-stationary effect of multiple drivers. Here we analysed the temporal interaction among multiple environmental drivers and their changing priority on shaping phytoplankton response in the Bahía Blanca Estuary, SW Atlantic Ocean. The interaction among environmental drivers and the number of significant direct and indirect effects on chlorophyll concentration increased over time in concurrence with enhanced anthropogenic stress, changing winter climate and wind patterns. Over the period 1978-1993, proximal variables such as nutrients, water temperature and salinity, showed a dominant effect on chlorophyll, whereas in more recent years (1993-2009) climate signals (SAM and ENSO) boosted indirect effects through its influence on precipitation, wind, water temperature and turbidity. Turbidity emerged as the dominant driver of chlorophyll while in recent years acted synergistically with the concentration of dissolved nitrogen. As a result, chlorophyll concentration showed a significant negative trend and a loss of seasonal peaks reflecting a pronounced reorganisation of the phytoplankton community. We stress the need to account for the changing priority of drivers to understand, and eventually forecast, biological responses under projected scenarios of global anthropogenic change.

Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio's performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

The global susceptibility of coastal forage fish to competition by large jellyfish

Competition between large jellyfish and forage fish for zooplankton prey is both a possible cause of jellyfish increases and a concern for the management of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Identifying principal factors affecting this competition is therefore important for marine management, but the lack of both good quality data and a robust theoretical framework have prevented general global analyses. Here, we present a general mechanistic food web model that considers fundamental differences in feeding modes and predation pressure between fish and jellyfish. The model predicts forage fish dominance at low primary production, and a shift towards jellyfish with increasing productivity, turbidity and fishing. We present an index of global ecosystem susceptibility to shifts in fish-jellyfish dominance that compares well with data on jellyfish distributions and trends. The results are a step towards better understanding the processes that govern jellyfish occurrences globally and highlight the advantage of considering feeding traits in ecosystem models.

Hypoxic areas, density-dependence and food limitation drive the body condition of a heavily exploited marine fish predator

Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population.

Hypoxic areas, density-dependence and food limitation drive the body condition of a heavily exploited marine fish predator

Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population.

Distribution of mesopredatory fish determined by habitat variables in a predator-depleted coastal system

Shallow nearshore habitats are highly valued for supporting marine ecosystems, but are subject to intense human-induced pressures. Mesopredatory fish are key components in coastal food webs, and alterations in their abundance may have evident effects also on other parts of the ecosystem. The aim of this study was to clarify the relationship between the abundance of coastal mesopredatory fish, defined as mid-trophic level demersal and benthic species with a diet consisting predominantly of invertebrates, and ambient environmental variables in a fjord system influenced by both eutrophication and overfishing. A field survey was conducted over a coastal gradient comprising 300 data points sampled consistently for fish community and environmental data. Results from multivariate and univariate analyses supported each other, demonstrating that mesopredatory fish abundance at species and functional group level was positively related to the cover of structurally complex vegetation and negatively related to eutrophication, as measured by water transparency. Contrary to other studies showing an inverse relationship to piscivore abundance over time, the spatial distribution of mesopredatory fish was not locally regulated by the abundance of piscivorous fish, probably attributed to piscivores being at historically low levels due to previous overfishing. Mesopredatory fish abundance was highest in areas with high habitat quality and positively related to the abundance of piscivores, suggesting a predominance of bottom-up processes. We conclude that, in parallel with ongoing regulations of fishing pressure, measures to restore habitat function and food web productivity are important for the recovery of coastal fish communities in the area.

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Land or sea? Foraging area choice during breeding by an omnivorous gull

BACKGROUND

Generalist predators may vary their diet and use of habitat according to both internal state (e.g. breeding stage) and external (e.g. weather) factors. Lesser black-backed gulls Larus fuscus (Linnaeus 1758) are dietary generalists, foraging in both terrestrial and marine habitats during breeding. We investigate what affects the gulls' propensity to forage at sea or on land. We assess the importance of terrestrial foraging to gulls in the Baltic Sea (sub. sp. L. f. fuscus), looking especially at their use of agricultural fields.

RESULTS

Through the GPS tracking of 19 individuals across 3 years we tracked 1038 foraging trips and found that 21.2 % of foraging trips were predominantly terrestrial, 9.0 % were a mix of terrestrial and marine, and 68.5 % were exclusively marine. Terrestrial trips were (1) more frequent when departing around sunrise, whereas marine trips occurred throughout the day. Additionally, trips with mostly land-based foraging decreased as the breeding season progressed, suggesting dietary switching coincident with the onset of chick provisioning. (2) During cloudy and cold conditions terrestrial foraging trips were more likely. (3) We found no differences between sexes in their land-based foraging strategy. (4) Gull individuals showed great variation in foraging strategy. Using observations of agricultural fields, carried out for one year, we found that (5) gulls preferentially foraged on fields with short vegetation, and there was a positive association with occurrence of waders and other species of gulls. (6) The availability and use of these preferred fields decreased through the breeding period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found high prevalence of terrestrial foraging during early breeding as well as support for dietary switching early in the breeding season. The overall tendency for marine or terrestrial foraging was consistent within individuals, with gull identity accounting for much of the variation observed in foraging trips. Our results suggest that anthropogenic terrestrial food sources may play a role in the low breeding success of these gulls through either variation in quantity and/or quality. Finally, our study demonstrates the potential of combining data from GPS-tracking of individual animals with the 'ground-truthing' of habitat visited to elucidate the otherwise nebulous behavior of a generalist predator.

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.